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Welcome everyone to the week long pregame coverage of Thanksgiving football!
I am your host Cole Ryan and I will be here leading up to kickoff
Unlike the Saturday and Sunday morning pregame show, we are trying something different for the Thanksgiving football schedule!
We have threads up for all of the games on Turkey day. As the week progresses we will add all of the information that we can find from around the league. This information will help bettors try and find a winning angle to make money on Turkey day!
Feel free to chime in with who you think will win and why. The idea is to share information and picks and join together to get some winners for turkey day!
If this does well we can do it every week for the midweek games, so let us know what you think.
Thanks for your input in advance and let’s find some winners!
The big news in this game is the loss of TE Rob Gronkowski--as expected Rex Ryan does not feel sorry for the Pats
It started out as a routine answer, basically what you'd expect from any opposing head coach asked about how the New England Patriots would deal with not having tight end Rob Gronkowski in their next game.
"There's a lot of talent on that roster and they can do a lot of different things. So it's definitely a challenge," New York Jets head coach Rex Ryan began, in his Tuesday conference call with New England reporters.
But then in Rex Ryan style, as if he couldn't resist the chance, the Jets coach fired a subtle salvo.
"It's interesting," began Ryan. "I wonder... when you lose a great player like that, with Gronkowski, clearly that's something you have deal with as a coach.
"I wonder how New England feels without (the Jets having receiver Santonio) Holmes or (cornerback Darrelle) Revis."
After making his point -- that the Jets have dealt with injuries to major players this year, too -- Ryan put it more bluntly.
"I don't feel sorry for them, let's put it that way," Ryan said.
Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
Patriots are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC.
Patriots are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Patriots are 61-28-2 ATS in their last 91 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Patriots are 53-25-3 ATS in their last 81 road games.
Patriots are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
Jets are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games in Week 12.
Jets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
Over is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 Thursday games.
Over is 6-1 in Patriots last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Over is 13-3 in Patriots last 16 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 8-2 in Patriots last 10 games in November.
Over is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games in Week 12.
Over is 11-3 in Patriots last 14 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Over is 24-7 in Patriots last 31 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 17-5 in Patriots last 22 road games.
Over is 10-3 in Patriots last 13 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 19-7 in Patriots last 26 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 19-7-1 in Patriots last 27 vs. AFC East.
Over is 36-15 in Patriots last 51 games overall.
Over is 36-15-1 in Patriots last 52 vs. AFC.
Over is 35-15-2 in Patriots last 52 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 40-18 in Patriots last 58 games following a ATS win.
Over is 33-16-2 in Patriots last 51 games on fieldturf.
Over is 35-17-2 in Patriots last 54 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Jets last 6 Thursday games.
Under is 4-1 in Jets last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 12-3 in Jets last 15 games in Week 12.
Under is 4-1 in Jets last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 16-5 in Jets last 21 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Over is 16-6 in Jets last 22 games following a ATS win.
Over is 5-2 in Jets last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 5-2 in Jets last 7 vs. AFC East.
Over is 12-5-2 in Jets last 19 games in November.
Over is 29-14-1 in Jets last 44 vs. AFC.
Head to Head
Over is 6-0-1 in the last 7 meetings.
Patriots are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 meetings in New York.
Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in New York.
Road team is 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 meetings.
The Sports Club sent out a suggested spread of New England -7 for this AFC East battle, but the injury to star TE Rob Gronkowski (out 4-6 weeks with broken forearm) has dropped the spread as low as -5.
Korner says big money could be controlling this line, waiting to see how low it can go before buying back New England.
“Whoever is controlling this move definitely doesn’t want New England -7.5 come Thursday,” he says. “I think it went down because of Gronk (who Korner says is worth a point to the spread), and he’s a difference maker. But it’s a good excuse to take this line down. There won’t be any Jets money coming in Thursday.”
Patriots’ no-huddle offense vs. Jets’ third down defense
The Patriots’ rapid pace on offense has produced an average of more than 28 first downs per game, including a stellar 51 percent success rate on third downs this year. New England hung 59 points on the Colts last Sunday, marching for 7.4 yards per play including 13.8 yards per pass completion from Tom Brady.
Sure, Rob Gronkowski is out and Aaron Hernandez is not 100 percent, but Bill Belichick’s offense has proven it’s not about the players but the system. Wes Welker and Julian Edelman – Wes Welker 2.0 – were targeted a combined 18 times Sunday, posting a total of 12 catches for 138 yards and one score. The Pats’ no-huddle will help these slippery receivers shed the coverage for big yardage.
New York’s defense has done well against the pass, allowing just over 200 yards per game (in part to a porous run stop) and “held” Brady to 259 yards and two TDs in their overtime loss to New England in Week 7. However, New York has watched opponents convert third downs at a 42.86 percent rate (third worst in the NFL) this season. The Jets complained about the Pats’ no-huddle earlier this year, arguing about substitution rules, and could be sucking wind when it counts thanks to the short-week Thanksgiving schedule.