coleryan Posts:11962 Followers:19
11/18/2012 10:27 AM

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

Line moves: Packers opened at minus-3, currently minus-3.5.

"Green Bay's injuries include Greg Jennings, Clay Matthews, Charles Woodson and three offensive linemen. But we have seen this before with the Packers; overcoming bruises is what they do. In Detroit: Houston, Avril, Houston, Spievey, Delmas, Burleson, Florence and Best round out their laundry list. In looking at point spreads, I believe there is something called 'value fatigue.' A player's absence has its value (PSVAR) immediately (one to three weeks after he's out). But after a while, his loss begins to decrease in importance. My spread for this game would be Green Bay minus-4.5/5."

coleryan Posts:11962 Followers:19
11/18/2012 10:28 AM

Tampa Bay CB Eric Wright, WR Arrelious Benn, DB Cody Grimm are probable Sunday

coleryan Posts:11962 Followers:19
11/18/2012 10:29 AM

(MIS) MATCHUP TO WATCH

Browns’ takeaways vs. Cowboys’ giveaways

After gift wrapping turnovers like a bakery at Christmas through the first eight weeks of the season, Dallas has toned down the giveaways in its last two games. The Cowboys, who lead the NFC with 13 interceptions and have fumbled away the ball six times, have not committed a turnover in the past two games. As long as Dallas isn’t choking itself out with these mistakes, it can be one of the better teams in the league.

However, the Cowboys might not want to relax against the Browns Sunday. Cleveland doesn’t do many things well, but it does have a nose for the football on defense, picking off 10 passes – tied for second in the AFC – and scooping up six fumbles this season. Corner Joe Haden is expected to play and will be assigned to Cowboys WR Dez Bryant. The Browns have five interceptions and two recovered fumbles (four forced) versus NFC East foes Philadelphia and New York already this season.

coleryan Posts:11962 Followers:19
11/18/2012 10:32 AM

The Texans are possessing the ball about 8 minutes longer than the Ravens on average (7:59 difference).

coleryan Posts:11962 Followers:19
11/18/2012 10:33 AM

Cardinals' D leads NFL in sacks per pass att. Their O ranks 31st in sacks allowed per pass att (49ers are 32nd).

coleryan Posts:11962 Followers:19
11/18/2012 10:33 AM

Tampa Bay leads tNFL in rush defense (80.1 ypg) while ranking last in net pass defense (321.3 ypg). Only FOUR teams have done that.

coleryan Posts:11962 Followers:19
11/18/2012 10:33 AM

From Mort--Julio Jones is adamant that he wants to play today. Will test out ankle shortly. If he is active he's expected to be limited.

coleryan Posts:11962 Followers:19
11/18/2012 10:35 AM

Skins vs Eagles

Nick Foles will get the nod after completing 22 of 32 pass attempts for 219 yards with a touchdown and an interception in relief of Vick last week. Redskins feature back Alfred Morris, who is seventh in the league with 793 rushing yards, will look to exploit an Eagles defense which is allowing 4.5 yards per carry during the team's losing skid. Philadelphia has played under the total in its last six road games.

coleryan Posts:11962 Followers:19
11/18/2012 10:35 AM

report from Vegas books

Some sharp money is starting to come in on the Pats

coleryan Posts:11962 Followers:19
11/18/2012 10:37 AM

From Dave Tuley---Spread: Redskins minus-3.5
Public consensus pick: 64 percent picked Redskins
SuperContestants: 116-88 in favor of Redskins

Public perception: The public continues to back RG3 and the Skins despite their being 3-5 against the spread, including two straight setbacks. The public wants no part of this Philly team anymore.

Wiseguys' view: The sharps grabbed this at lower numbers, from minus-1.5 to minus-2.5 and even minus-3, but now are mostly staying away. There could be some buyback on the Eagles at plus-4, but wiseguys aren't likely to play a rookie QB such as Nick Foles on the road.

Tuley's take: I would love to make a case for the Eagles with Foles, especially against the Redskins' pass defense (allowing 301.7 yards per game), but just can't pull the trigger. The pick:Pass (pool play: Eagles).