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Pfile Nickname spooky
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11/16/2012 10:51 AM
COLLEGE FOOTBALL ANALYSIS

Friday's games

Hawai'i is awful, 0-8 vs I-A teams; only game they covered was a 49-10 (+40) loss at USC- they've been outscored 77-10 in first half of last two games. Only one of their five road losses was by less than 35 points. Air Force lost its last two games, is just 1-5 vs spread as a favorite (1-2 as a home favorite). Warriors haven't played Air Force since 2001. MWC home favorites are 10-5 vs spread. Four of last five Hawai'i games went over total, five of last six Air Force games stayed under.

FAU covered its last games (2-6 SU) but was underdog in all eight; this is only their third home game vs I-A opponent (1-1). FIU (-17) pounded FAU 41-7 LY, ending five-game skid in local rivalry where faves covered five of last six games; Panthers lost last couple visits here, 21-9/28-21. FIU lot seven of last eight games; they're 2-2 as road underdogs. This is a busride game, so not like any travel involved. Sun Belt home favorites are 5-15 against spread. Three of last four FAU games went over total.

Saturday's games

Top games

Northwestern is 7-3 but gagged away all three losses in 4th quarter; they are 2-3 in last five games, 3-1 vs spread as underdogs, with losses by 11-1-7ot points. Last six Michigan State games were all decided by 4 or less points; Spartans are 1-6 vs spread as faves this year, 0-5 at home. State won last four series games by average score of 32-20, but lost four of last six games overall. Big Dozen home favorites are 13-13 vs spread. Under is 7-2-1 in Spartan games; three of last four Wildcats games went under.

Tennessee won six in row, 13 of last 14 games vs Vanderbilt, with dogs 6-2 vs spread in last eight; Vols won last six visits here, last three by 14-10-29 points, but Tennessee's defense has fallen apart, allowing 38-48-51 points in last three games. Vandy rallied from down 23-6 to win last week at Ole Miss, its fourth win in row; they're 1-3 as faves this year, 1-1 at home. Vols lost five of last six games, blowing 21-7 halftime lead at home to Missouri last week. SEC home favorites are 15-13 vs spread.

West Virginia's defense is hideous, allowing 49-55-39-55 points during 4-game losing streak; they allowed 63-45 points in last two games they've won. Mountaineers are 3-2 at home, with underdogs covering four of the five games; they're 1-1 as dogs this year. Oklahoma is 4-0 on road, 3-0 in last four games as road favorite, winning by 17-21-42-15 points. This is not your normal Sooner defense; they allowed 185+ rushing yards three of last four games. Big X home underdogs are 5-7 vs spread. Four of last six games for both teams went over total.

USC won five in row, 12 of its last 13 games vs crosstown rival UCLA; they crushed Bruins 50-0 LY, won five of last six visits here, winning by 14-21 in last two. This is Mora's first game as UCLA coach in this series so chance for him to make recruiting inroads here. Trojans lost two of last three games overall- they are 0-5 vs spread away from home in '12. UCLA won last three games, scoring 45-66-44 points; they covered both games as an underdog this year. Pac-12 home dogs are 11-10 vs spread. Four of last five UCLA games went over total; under is 5-3 in last eight Trojan games.

Kansas State/Baylor split pair of close games last two years, with home team winning both; Wildcats won 36-35 LY, lost 47-42 in '10, but this is been K-State's year- they're 8-1 vs spread in last nine games, 5-2 when a favorite, 1-1 on road, winning away games by 5-6-41-13 points. Baylor lost five of its last six games, losing twice when they scored 50+ points; they're 3-1 vs spread as underdog this year. Iowa State/TCU beat them by 14-28 points, only two games they've lost by more than 7 points. Big X home underdogs are 5-7 vs spread. Under is 3-0-1 in K-State's road games, 3-0 in last three Baylor games.

Lined opened at Oregon -24, is down to 20.5, as books made number so Ducks wouldn't get all the action; they won nine of last 10 games with Stanford, winning 53-30/52-31 last two years, despite Cardinal being in top 10 at time both years. Oregon covered its last five games, with 62-51 win at USC closest game; they're playing for style points to stay in top three in BCS Standings, so tough to buck them here. Stanford won last four games; their only losses are 17-13 at Washington, 20-13 at Notre Dame. Pac-12 home favorites are 13-12 vs spread. Five of last six Oregon games went over; four of last five Cardinal games stayed under.

Favorites covered four of five UCF-Tulsa games, with Hurricanes taking 21-17 decision in Orlando LY; Golden Knights lost their only visit here, 49-19 (+23) in '08- they've won last six games, with three of last four on road. Tulsa won 8 of last 9 games, with its only loss 19-15 at Arkansas; they're 5-0 at home, 2-2 as home favorites- they've been positive in TOs in each of last six games. UCF covered its only games as a dog this year. C-USA home favorites are 11-9 vs spread. Five of last six UCF games went over total; last four Tulsa games stayed under.

BYU won 41-17/52-13 in two games since losing at Notre Dame; win at Georgia Tech was its only win in four road games- they're 2-4 vs spread as favorites, 0-1 on road. San Jose State is going bowling for first time in six years (2nd since '90); they've won four in row, 8 of last 9 games, are 2-0 as underdog this year, and covered last four tries as home underdog. San Jose lost by 3 at Stanford, so they're legit. WAC non-conference underdogs are 9-8 vs spread, 3-1 at home. Three of last four BYU games, five of last eight Spartan games went over total.

Syracuse handed Louisville its first loss last week, but they're 1-4 away from home, with only win 37-36 at South Florida when they trailed 23-3 at half. Orangemen are 3-2-1 as underdogs. Missouri gave up 585 yards last week at Tennessee, but rallied back from down 21-7 at half to win in OT, 51-48. Tigers are 5-0 when they score 21+ points, 0-4 when they do not-- all four of their losses came in SEC games. SEC non-conference home favorites are 9-16 vs spread; Big East underdogs are 8-2-1, 4-2 on road. Last four Syracuse games went over total; six of last eight Missouri games stayed under.

Oklahoma State beat Texas Tech last three years, including 66-6 beating in Lubbock LY when they outgained Red Raiders, 637-270. Cowboys allowed 41+ points in all three losses this year; they're 19-7-1 vs spread in last 27 games as home favorite, 4-0 this year. Tech struggled to beat woeful Kansas in OT last week, but they're 8-3, with losses by 21-31-9 points- they're 1-2 as underdogs, and don't have takeaway in any of last three games. Big X home favorites are 10-12 vs spread. Three of last four Tech games, five of last eight OSU games went over total.

Utah State is 9-0 vs spread this year, winning last four games; their only losses are 16-14 at Wisconsin, 6-3 at BYU; Aggies lost six of last seven games vs Louisiana Tech losing three here 24-6/45-38/48-35. State was a dog in four of nine wins; they've won road games at Colorado St (31-19), San Jose (49-27), UTSA (48-17). Louisiana Tech is 9-1, with only loss 59-57 to Texas A&M (trailed 39-16 at half), so this is high-level game. Bulldogs covered both games as dog this year. WAC home underdogs are 2-7 vs spread this season. Seven of nine State games stayed under; nine of ten Tech games went over.

Underdogs are 6-3 vs spread in last nine Ohio State-Wisconsin games, as dog won SU last two years; Buckeyes won four of last five in series, but lost two of last three visits here. Ohio State is quietest 10-0 team ever, but they've only played three road games, winning 17-16 at Michigan St, 52-49 at Indiana before beating Penn State 35-23- they've allowed 22+ points in last five games. Badgers are bully team, with five wins by 11+ points, but they've lost three of last four games that were decided by 3 or less points. Big Dozen home favorites are 13-12 vs spread. Five of last seven Wisconsin games, four of last five OSU games went over total.

Arkansas State hammered Troy 45-14 LY, its first win in last five tries vs Trojans; they lost last two visits here, 35-28/35-9. ASU won last five games (4-1 vs spread); they're 3-0 on Sun Belt road, winning at FIU by 14, ULL by 23, North Texas by 18. Troy is 2-3 in last five games, but they upset Navy 41-31 last week, fifth straight game they allowed 31+ points. Troy covered all three games as an underdog this year. Sun Belt home underdogs are 3-7 vs spread. Last five Troy games, three of last four ASU games went over the total.

Other Notes

-- Maryland is 4-9 in its last 13 games as a home underdog.
-- Road team covered 10 of last 11 Northwestern-Michigan St games.
-- Indiana covered four of last five games with Penn State.
-- Nevada is 7-14 in its last 21 games as a road favorite.

-- Over the last 20 years, Wisconsin is 16-4 vs spread in its last home game of the season.
-- Road team covered six of last seven NC State-Clemson games.
-- Houston is 6-13 in its last 19 games as a road favorite.
-- Home side covered nine of last ten Miss State-Arkansas games.
-- USC won 12 of last 13 games vs UCLA (9-4 vs spread).

-- Over last 22 years, Notre Dame is 6-15-1 in last home game of year.
-- Home team is 11-4-1 vs spread in Rice-SMU series, with Owls 6-0 vs spread the last six years.
-- Iowa is 8-3-2 vs spread in last 13 games with Michigan.
-- Washington covered six of last 24 Pac-12 road games.
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Pfile Nickname jimmythegreek
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11/16/2012 04:36 PM
GO...


oops, I meant



Amazing how a middle initial can make a big difference!
For the latest sports news, capper picks and tracker results, turn to JTG, the leader in BTB information

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Pfile Nickname spooky
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11/16/2012 04:58 PM
Yeah. same thing when I give you the peace sign and add that extra finger.

Go Owls!!!
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Pfile Nickname spooky
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11/16/2012 06:43 PM
Last night I forgot to post the picks and did pretty well. Had North Carolina and the Under.
So lets throw out a few for the weekend so we dont forget again.
Wishing Greek a very happy birthday weekend. Although he doesnt need to send anymore pictures.

I always buy the point as needed to take advantage of the line or played these earlier in the week.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

FRIDAY NIGHT

FLORIDA ATLANTIC PK (moneyline)

AIR FORCE/HAWAII UNDER 62 POINTS


SATURDAY

BAYLOR +14

KANSAS +8

USC -3 (all in)

MIAMI, FLORIDA -6

OREGON/STANFORD OVER 64 POINTS

Leaning towards Oklahoma and Indiana as well and will come back with a couple more tomorrow.


GL
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11/17/2012 11:06 AM
Saturday's Dirty Dozen: Nobody asked me, but........

12) Over last 22 years, since 1990, 16 NFL teams made the playoffs who were below .500 after nine games, so if your team is struggling right now, there’s still hope. Not a lot of hope, but some.

11) Rams/Browns are only teams without a road win, though St Louis does have a tie, which is half a win, kind of. Cleveland is 5-1-1 vs spread last seven times they were road underdog of 6.5+ points.

10) Blue Jays gave Melky Cabrera $16M for two years, as they continue to add to an already-impressive lineup. Toronto doesn't have a manager yet; think they're getting some phone calls/resumes after this week?

9) Northwestern’s Drew Crawford, who scored 16.1 ppg LY, is the son of NBA referee Danny Crawford.

8) One of broadcasting’s great clichés is how so-and-so “gave 110%”. You can only give what you have, 100%. Its impossible to give more.

7) Big West’s basketball power rating has been gradually slipping, but when San Diego State joins league next year, you’re going to see it take a bounce up. Aztecs will be like UNLV was in that league 25 years ago, a powerful program that attracts quality transfers- they’ll raise the level of the other teams in the league, the way UCSB/New Mexico State’s programs got a bump while competing with Tark the Shark’s great Rebel teams.

6) Since 2009, nine of 12 ACC basketball teams changed head coaches.

5) UConn would be wise to sign up interim basketball coach/alum Kevin Ollie to a long term contract; who they going to get that’s as good or better? His presence keeps the Huskies’ alums/Coach Calhoun invested in the program, which is important.

4) Lakers unveiled a statue of Kareem Abdul-Jabbar outside Staples Center last night. My question is this: What took so long? He's not personable or a big commercial spokesman, but he's most dominant player in basketball history. High school-college-pro, total domination.

3) Dallas Cowboys covered three times in their last 16 games as a home favorite. Redskins’ coach Mike Shanahan, who used to be with Denver, is 3-21-1 vs spread in his last 25 games as a home favorite.

2) If college sports is hurting for money so much, where do all these teams find money for alternate jerseys/helmets? North Carolina had a whole new set of helmets Thursday night; who foots the bill for that?

1) Governor of Minnesota is mad because the state of Minnesota is funding more than half of the Vikings’ new stadium, but Viking owners mentioned the term “PSLs”, as in legalized extortion, earlier this month.

People shouldn’t have to buy PSLs for a publicly-funded stadium, simple as that. Its stealing.
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