nfl week three
1 Replies | 615 ViewsOn 09/22/2011 09:47 PM in NFL
Two Unit Plays (0-2)(-4.40 units)
Three Unit Plays (1-3)(-7.95 units)
Overall Record (6-7)(-9.55 units)
I sucked again last week. What was I thinking taking KC over Detroit? Somebody yell at me next time I do something that stupid. Headed back to work this weekend after being off a month with broken ribs, not sure I will be able to though. I would really like to know how Tony Romo can possibly play this week. They must be going to dope him up real good. Getting all my plays in early this week. Here is what I got.
New Orleans -4 vs Houston (3 unit BEST BET)……………Is it possible Houston is just a tad bit over-rated? I think so. Lets see…..they beat the Colts who had no clue what to do without Mr you know who. Then they beat Miami who forgot how to win a game at home. I think they need go to back to the Orange Bowl Days to get some home field advantage back. The Saints played a great game at Green Bay to open the season and then came home and showed the Bears what home field advantage really means. All of a sudden Houston is the division favorite, but that is by default. If it were not for all the Houston is great hype…this line would be 7 or 7½ . I am all over New Orleans as they win this one by double digits and knock Houston down a peg or two.
Miami +2½ vs Cleveland (3 unit BEST BET)…………Was going to buy this up to three, but if I am right Miami wins this game. If there is such a thing as a must win this early, this may be it. Miami after this must play at San Diego and at the Jets. I am pretty sure they will lose both of them, so a loss this week would make them 0-5 and it would be time to start dreaming of taking Stanford’s QB Luck. Of course from what I have seem the past couple of years, they would probably not draft a QB. I think the last time the fish won a home game was back in the Orange Bowl. LOL. On the road they have been a covering machines though. Hard to explain. I don’t think they feel the pressure on the road that they do at home. Henne does not have to worry about being booed when on the road either. Cleveland is an improved team, but nothing special. Second week in a row I have taken Miami as a best. Will be my last if they fail me again Sunday.
Over 53½ New England vs Buffalo (two unit play)…………Unless they start making Patriot games with totals in the 70’s, I think I am going to be on the over just about every week. They have a well oiled machine on offense and a defense that can be scored on, so that is the perfect combination for lots of overs. I am not a huge total player, but this year I think I am on to something. I even have a feeling that Buffalo is going to give them a game, but don’t have the guts to take them. I can tell you for sure if they do it will not be a defensive battle. Their only chance is to outscore them and I think they have the talent to put some points on the board in this one. Only snow in Buffalo would slow the Pats down and I just checked the weather channel. I really think the pats are good for at least five touchdowns in this one, and Buffalo should be able to put at least twenty on the board. Totals scare me to death because I normally suck at them, but I just cannot pass up a good thing like this until proven otherwise.
Chicago +3½ vs Green Bay (two unit play)………….Due to the fact the Green Bay won the Super Bowl last year, everybody seems to forget that the Chicago Bears were the division champs. I have always been a big Jay Cutler fan and now that he has some support, he has taken his team to bigger and better things. I think home field advantage means more to the NFC north than any other division. Last week on the road these same Bears took a beating, but you will see a completely different team at home this week. As for the Packers, something just does not feel right about them so far this year. They are fortunate to be 2-0 so far. Bears will be sky high for this one and give Green Bay their first loss of the season. The packers have given up the most points of all teams in this division and they cannot keep outscoring teams every week to win, it will catch up to them. This is the week. Chicago gets the win 30-23.
THE REST OF THESE ARE ONE UNIT PLAYS
Detroit -3 vs Minnesota…………I was going to go against the Lions this week. You know they are not going to keep this up all season. They play half their games on the road where they are just 3-26 the last 29 games. Of course this is a different team. They are going to curse me, because I am jumping on their bandwagon. McNabb has looked lost so far this year. It is a good thing he can still run, because he will be running for his life. I only played one unit on this because I just got done telling you about home field in this division, so I would not be shocked to see Minnesota pull this one out. Detroit is a very likeable team and easy to root for. I can hardly wait for Thanksgiving……Green Bay comes visiting on that day. Hopefully Stafford will be healthy and playing.
Carolina -3 vs Jacksonville…………As long as I am jumping on bandwagons this week, I might as well jump on the Cam Newton one as well. That being said watch him throw for 150 yards and 5 interceptions. He has obviously been a winner everywhere he has gone. No he has not won a game in the NFL yet, but that is only a matter of time. There next three games are pretty tough and two of them on the road, so this is their best chance for a win for a month. Jacksonville is switching QB’s this week and going with their own rookie Gabbert. Always tough getting your first start on the road in this league. The Jags not lighting up the scoreboard by any means and to win this game they will need to. Carolina’s defense nothing to brag about, so the Jags will score a few more this week than they have been, but they are not going to outscore Carolina. If I did not have such bad luck on totals, I would play the over as well. Carolina wins 34-24
Oakland +3½ (-120)……..Bought a ½ point. I think this has upset written all over it. I am not sure how Oakland got so good out of nowhere it seems last year, but they are a physical team that will battle you. Jets take to the road for the first time this year. I think Sanchez struggles in this one and gets picked at least twice. It is not like he has been super great this year with 4 td’s and 3 picks. I am calling for an outright win, but I hate the Jets so bad and they are lucky enough to pull out a win. As long it is by three or less.
I will be back. Still a couple of missing lines. I like the Eagles if Vick plays, but don’t want to lay a ton of points, so must wait for that line. I am also hoping that Steeler line drops below ten vs Colts before I play that in the Sunday night game. No line yet on the Monday night game between the Skins & The Boys. Check back.
Good Luck Everybody!!