jimmythegreek Posts:10886 Followers:378
On 11/11/2012 02:04 AM in NFL

NFL GREEK INSIDER WEEK 10

New England -13 over Buffalo:
The Patriots host the Bills on Sunday looking for a 12th straight home win in the series and a 23rd victory in the last 25 meetings overall. Tom Brady is 19-2 against Buffalo, completing 65.3 percent of his passes for 5,170 yards, 49 touchdowns - his most against any team - and 17 interceptions for a 103.4 rating. After a bye week, New England goes right back to the grind sporting the league's top offense. New England (5-3) faced a 21-7 deficit in the third quarter of their last meeting on Sept. 30. But the Patriots forced four turnovers in the final 30 minutes and Brady's big second half - he threw for 199 yards and three TDs - led to a 52-28 victory.

Leading the NFL in total yards per game (440.8) and points (32.8), a high-powered offense is nothing new for the Brady-Belichick Patriots. New England has finished eighth or better in both categories in each season dating back to 2007. However, the way they're operating now - with a bigger focus on the running game - is a little different. The Patriots' rushing attack (fourth in the NFL at 149.6 ypg) ranks slightly better than the passing offense (fifth at 291.1). At the forefront of New England's change is running back Stevan Ridley, who is on pace to become the first Patriot with 300 carries since Corey Dillon ran 345 times in 2004. Ridley's 89.5 rushing yards per game rank fifth and his 47 rushes for a first down are the most in the NFL

Ridley, who had 106 yards and two touchdowns at Buffalo in September, could be in for another big day. The Bills (3-5) allow 169.5 rushing yards a game, the second most in the league, and an average of 5.7 yards per carry that's easily the NFL's worst. Some would like to see Bills coach Chan Gailey more committed to his own ground game after it virtually disappeared in last week's 21-9 loss to Houston, Buffalo's fourth defeat in five games. The Bills' rushing offense ranks sixth at 141.3 yards per game, but ran the ball a season-low 15 times for 74 yards at Houston despite having C.J. Spiller, who leads the NFL with 7.2 yards per carry. Ryan Fitzpatrick will hope to have Stevie Johnson at his disposal after his leading receiver suffered a thigh injury against Houston. Johnson, who has four touchdown catches, didn't practice Wednesday but is expected to later in the week.

Brady, meanwhile, will hope to have Aaron Hernandez back after the tight end skipped the team's trip to London because of a lingering high ankle sprain. Hernandez returned to practice in a limited capacity Wednesday, but his status for Sunday is unclear. New England made great use of its star tight ends the last time both were healthy against Buffalo. Hernandez caught seven passes for 138 yards and a score while Rob Gronkowski had eight catches for 108 yards and two TDs in a 49-21 win at Foxborough on New Year's Day.

With New England's offense as explosive as it is they should be able to score early and often against one of the league's generously prone secondaries and defensive fronts. Another addition to the Patriots versatile attack is the ground game which should help dominate time of possession and limit the number of opportunities Buffalo has to make this competitive.

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jimmythegreek Posts:10886 Followers:378
11/11/2012 02:12 AM

Miami -6 over Tennessee:
Tennessee hopes to bounce back Sunday against a Miami Dolphins team looking to boost its playoff chances in the first of two games in a five-day stretch. The Titans (3-6) committed five turnovers while allowing their most points since a 59-0 loss to New England on Oct. 18, 2009. Adding to the embarrassment, the contest felt more like a road game as reportedly more than half of LP Field consisted of Bears fans.

Chris Johnson lost two fumbles and finished with 117 yards only after an 80-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter when the game was out of hand in a blowout loss to Chicago. Tennessee is allowing an NFL-worst 34.2 points per game and is nine points short of matching the 317 it gave up all of last season. One difference this week will be the presence of Jake Locker, who has missed the last five games after dislocating his non-throwing shoulder in a loss to Houston on Sept. 30. Locker began working with the starters in practice Wednesday, and Munchak said he'll start Sunday barring any setbacks. The 2011 first-round pick had a career-high 378 yards passing and his first NFL victory in his last full game Sept. 23 against Detroit.

Miami, meanwhile, has been pleased with the play of rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who hasn't thrown an interception since the day Locker was injured. The Dolphins (4-4) are one game back of AFC East-leading New England, but they fell 23-20 to Indianapolis last week despite Tannehill finishing 22 of 38 for 290 yards and a touchdown. Miami, which had a three-game winning streak snapped, looks to improve its hopes of reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2008 with back-to-back games against sub-.500 opponents. After facing the struggling Titans, the Dolphins have a short week before next Thursday night's visit to Buffalo, loser of two straight and four of five.

Miami may need especially big performances from Tannehill if Bush can't help boost a running game averaging only 74.2 yards over the last five. Bush has rushed for more than 69 yards once all season after ending last year with four consecutive 100-yard games. He could be helped by facing a Tennessee defense which ranks 30th in the league against the run, giving up an average of 141.6 yards. Johnson ran for 117 yards and a touchdown in the most recent meeting Nov. 14, 2010, but Anthony Fasano caught five passes for 107 yards and a score in the Dolphins' 29-17 home victory. The Titans have lost three straight and six of seven in Miami.

Most would suspect this looks like a potential trap game given the teams progressions heading in opposite directions. Miami will take care of business at home and this number matched my expectation since the opening odds were released. Considering that the fish should now be considered a threat to make the postseason and possibly winning the AFC East, the public should start taking this team seriously while the lowly Titans need a win just to salvage some respectability which is unlikely to happen.

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jimmythegreek Posts:10886 Followers:378
11/11/2012 02:24 AM

San Francisco -12.5 over St. Louis:
Alex Smith, Frank Gore and the rest of the 49ers' offense look to take advantage of a St. Louis Rams team that hasn't forced a single turnover during a three-game losing streak when the division rivals meet Sunday in San Francisco. Defense has been a staple of the Niners who are allowing an NFL-low 12.9 points per game while giving up an NFC-best average of 271.4 total yards. San Francisco (6-2) has won four of five, allowing a total of 12 points without a single touchdown in the victories after beating Arizona 24-3 on Oct. 29 before its bye week.

The offense hasn't been bad, either. Smith ranks fourth in the league with a 102.1 passer rating after finishing 18 for 19 for 232 yards and three touchdowns - two to Michael Crabtree and another to Randy Moss - versus the Cardinals. Gore had only 55 yards on 16 carries, but he's a big reason the 49ers lead the NFL with 168.6 yards per game on the ground. Three victories during San Francisco's hot stretch have come by at least 21 points. San Francisco has committed only nine turnovers, and the chances of that number increasing against struggling St. Louis seem slim.

The Rams (3-5) took an early 7-0 lead before allowing 45 unanswered points in losing to New England on Oct. 28 in London before their bye week. It also marked their third consecutive game without a takeaway. They've forced only two fumbles all year, much to the dismay of coach Jeff Fisher. On offense, Sam Bradford has been solid during the team's skid, completing 67.0 percent of his passes, including a 50-yard touchdown to Chris Givens against the Patriots. Bradford missed both meetings with the 49ers last season while recovering from a high left ankle sprain, but he has a 73.4 completion percentage and 100.3 rating with two touchdowns in two career starts versus San Francisco.

Bradford could benefit from the return of favorite target Danny Amendola, who still leads St. Louis with 32 catches and 395 yards despite missing the last three games with a collarbone injury. Smith threw for 213 yards and Crabtree caught two touchdowns - one on a fake field goal - in the 49ers' 34-27 victory in the most recent meeting Jan. 1, marking their seventh win in the last eight matchups.

Both teams are coming off a bye week,but the 49ers have a ton of rest given their primetime schedule of late. St. Louis is coming off of three-straight losses, including a huge blowout at the hands of the New England Patriots. The 49ers are coming off a pair of divisional wins and seem to be carrying all of that intangible momentum. St. Louis will be worn and torn as the game goes on, and Frisco will mix up their running attack with Smith leading the charge.

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jimmythegreek Posts:10886 Followers:378
11/11/2012 02:31 AM

Houston/Chicago over 40:
Two of the NFL's top teams meet Sunday night at Soldier Field when the Texans try to prevent the Bears from winning seven straight games for the first time in six years. This potential Super Bowl preview contest is expected to be a good test for both 7-1 teams that hope to make it to New Orleans come February. Each team's only loss came to the surging Green Bay Packers, and the Bears are 4-0 at home while Houston is 3-0 on the road.

Only one of Chicago's victories has come against a team with a winning record heading into Week 10, and Sunday begins a stretch where it plays seven of its final eight against opponents at .500 or better. Looking to win seven in a row for the first time since opening 7-0 in 2006, the Bears welcome the challenge. Regardless of who is on the field, the Bears face a tough task against a Houston team that has committed a league-low six turnovers and averages 138.0 yards on the ground. Star Arian Foster is fifth in the NFL with 770 rushing yards and first with 11 overall TDs. Chicago is second in the NFL in scoring defense at 15.0 points per game, tied for third with 25 sacks and lead the league with 28 forced turnovers. Charles Tillman forced four fumbles and Brian Urlacher returned an interception 46 yards for Chicago's seventh defensive touchdown in last Sunday's 51-20 rout at Tennessee.

Chicago ranks 25th in total offense (324.4) and 29th in passing (195.9), but should feel confident after amassing 358 yards at Tennessee. Jay Cutler was 19 of 26 for 229 yards with three TDs to Brandon Marshall, who finished with nine catches for 122 yards. Arian Foster and the Houston offensive line against the Bears front-seven becomes one of the deciding factors in the game. If Arian and the line can get the run game going, they open up the play-action passing game. This would enable the Texans to get favorable matchups in the secondary for its receivers and tight ends.

Best of luck to all in week 10

For the latest sports news, capper picks and tracker results, turn to JTG, the leader in BTB information

  • All Time Record: 12484-12817-470
  • Last 7 Days Record: 63-71-1
  • Last 30 Days Record: 355-348-14