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FREE Pick NBA Saturday - (3-0-1) Harout Massoyan Handicapping
Boston vs. Milwaukee, 11/10/2012 20:30
Okay guys here we go! Its saturday, and it is a great day to enjoy some sports.
I have found tonight's mismatch in the 8:30 ET game against the Celtics and the Bucks.
I would like to start off by saying that I am a little disappointed and scared as to why a lot of people are going with the Celtics here in the Consensus.
So far a whopping 72% are in favor of the Celtics, and it has caused the lines to shift in favor of the Bucks (The home team) this morning.
It kind of scares me how these sports bettors praise the Celtics so much. I think the thought of them being a previous powerhouse makes people think there is an advantage in the underdog spread for the Celtics tonight. There is a reason why they are underdogs and its not because the game is in Milwaukee. And here is why....
In the past 5 of their games, majority of the Consensus shows that most people have placed bets in favor of the Celtics with the exception of the Heat game early in the season, which was still fairly close in the consensus. However, in all 5 of those contests, majority of the people playing on a spread on the Celtics for that game, have lost their money every single time! They are winless ATS, and do not expect that to change because these deceiving numbers are working in favor of the sports-books so dont expect them to win ATS until these numbers change.
Excuse my sarcasm, but let's go ahead and congratulate them to their two victories by 4, and 3 points against the Wizards, who are win-less
......buttttttttt even then the wizard's closest games have been against the Celtics in both games while they have clearly had "easier" opponents early this season.
Now, it is not even like we can say it will be a different game between the bucks opposed to the other teams the celtics have faced this season, because their schedule has been fairly easy. They are not in a situation where they have to sync with each other because the celtics have been playing together for a while, and i do not think the absence of Ray Allen will affect them THAT much. They are on the decline, and a lot people do not realize that change because it has been gradual.
The Bucks and the Celtics matched up last week, in a victory for the Bucks in Boston (Which makes me more certain about a victory for another victory----this time at HOME), and even though the Celtics lost by eleven at home and were trailing that game by 17+ for most of the game, the Celtics did not have a bad game. They only shot 1.9% less in FGs, turned the ball over the same amount of times, and got to the line just as much. The main difference between the two is the young energy of the bucks, the ability to out-rebound the Celtics like they did last week. They put up 12 more shots than them, and making at least half of those tacks on an extra 12 points.
Even though Rondo has been playing very well early, 2 is better than one, and having to stop both of the Buck's guards' outstanding style of play early in the season is going to be a tough duty, especially for the aging Celtics. Jennings and Ellis look to be one of the best balanced young back-courts in the league right now. They both average around 17+ points and tack on a exceptional number of assists.
It surprises me how a lot of bettors have the guts to go with the celtics here tonight, when the two just played a game against eachother a week ago IN BOSTON, and the Bucks still came out with a double digit victory. What makes you think i am not expecting an even better result from the Bucks tonight at home? Regardless of how good the celtics can be tonight, or how good the bucks can be. With previous stats and a box score between the two a week ago in favor of the away team by double digits (Bucks), who are now the home team, along with a tight spread in the bookie tonight, you have to go with the home team especially because they were capable of getting a victory on the road, they are more than capable of doing it at home.
This is going to be a tougher one for the Celtics (2-3) than it will be for the bucks. (3-1)
I look to add another W to by undefeated season tonight, with this wise pick for tonight.
From my success onto yours, i wish you all a wonderful weekend, and happy betting.
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