cnotes Posts:24261 Followers:32
11/18/2012 11:39 AM

Sunday, Nov. 18 - All games to start at 1:00 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Birds 1-8 vs. line this season. Birds have, however, won and covered last three vs. the Shan. Philly has also won and covered last three at FedEx Field. Shan 1-3 vs. line at home TY, 3-8 last 11 as host. Slight to Skins, based on recent trends.

Lions "over" 29-14-2 since late in 2009 season, Pack "over" 19-8 last 27 since late 2010. Pack 10-2 vs. line last 12 meetings. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

Cards now on 6-game spread slide after 10-3 mark vs. points previous 13 games. Falcons 2-2 vs. line at home TY but do not have a win at Georgia Dome by more than 6 points TY. Big Red "under" 7-2 TY and "under" 10-2 last 12 away. Also "under" 13-4-1 last 18 overall. "Under," based on "totals" trends.

Bucs 7-2 vs. line TY and 4-0 vs. line on road and "over" last five in 2012. Cam no covers last four at home. "Over" and Bucs, based on "totals" and team trends.

Cowboys 0-6 last 6, 2-10 last vs. line at Jerry Jones Stadium. Browns, based on team trends.

Jets "over" 32-16-1 since late in 2009 season. Rams 3-1 SU and vs. line at Edward Jones Dome TY. "Over" and Rams, based on "totals" and team trends.

"Road-in-Jag" trend still intact after home loss to Indy last Thursday. Visitor now 9-0 vs. line in J'ville games TY (Jags 4-0 away). But Houston 20-7 vs. line last 27 since late 2010 for Kubiak and has handily won and covered last four in series.

Jags "under" 16-9 since LY. "Under," based on "totals" trends.

Chiefs "over" 6-3 TY after "under" 12-4 LY. Marvin Lewis "over" 15-9-1 since LY. Slight to "over," based on "totals" trends.

Sunday, Nov. 18 - Games to start at 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Raiders 1-4 vs. line last five at home since late LY, also "over" last four this season. Oakland "over" 12-4 last 16 since late LY. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

Colts have now won and covered last four after Thursday win at J'ville. Belichick only 4-8 vs. spread last 11 at Gillette Stadium. Note road team has covered last four meetings. Pats now "over" 35-12 last 47 since late 2009. "Over" and Colts, based on "totals" and recent trends.

Broncos have won and covered last four TY, Denver also "over" 6-3 this season and "over" 32-15 since late in 2009. "Overs" 9-4 last 13 in series. Bolts have won and covered last three trips to Denver but Norv only 1-4 vs. line last five TY. "Over" and Broncos, based on "totals" and team trends.

Sunday, Nov. 18 - NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Steelers "under" last seven at Heinz Field and "under" 10-2 last 12 as host, turning around previous "over" home trends. Ravens have won reg.-season games at Heinz last two years (although lost playoff game at Pitt. in 2010) and are 3-0-1 vs. line in reg. Season at Pitt. since 2008. "Under" and slight to Ravens, based on "totals" and series trends.

Monday, Nov. 19 - ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

49ers no covers last three at Stick after 10-1-1 spread mark previous 12 at home for Jim Harbaugh. Bears 3-1 vs. line away TY and 7-3 vs. spread last 10 away since mid 2011. Bears, based on recent trends.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24261 Followers:32
11/18/2012 11:43 AM

Gridiron Angles - Week 11

November 17, 2012

NFL ATS TREND:

-- The Chiefs are 10-0 ATS (12.2 ppg) since January 03, 2010 the week after after a straight up loss as a road underdog.

NFL OU TREND:

-- The Falcons are 13-0 OU(13.2 ppg) since October 31, 2004 after a game which went over despite scoring less points than expected.

NCAA ATS PLAY ON TREND:

-- Kent State is 9-0 ATS (13.2 ppg) since October 29, 2011 when the line is within six of pick em.

NCAA ATS PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- Baylor is 0-11-1 ATS (-16.2 ppg) since 2006 as a dog of less than 20 points, with a total greater than 47 but less than 80 coming off a loss.

NCAA SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:

-- NCAA Teams are 28-43-1 ATS (-3.5 ppg) in at least game eight of the season when they won their first game last game. Active on UMass.

NFL BIBLE TREND OF THE WEEK:

-- The Jaguars are 10-0 ATS (+9.6 ppg) in franchise history as a road dog when seeking same-season revenge for a home loss.

NFL USER TREND:

-- AFC teams are 2-19-1 OU since week 14 of 1999 in divisional games with the total of at least 39 if they are not 15+ point dogs, after a win where they scored no more than 14 points.



Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24261 Followers:32
11/18/2012 11:45 AM

Las Vegas Money Moves

November 16, 2012

We got all kinds of quarterback issues this week that has affected several lines this week ranging from concussions to Michael Vick, Jay Cutler, and Alex Smith to Ben Roethlisberger’s shoulder. Smith is expected to start for the 49ers (-6) Monday night against the Bears, but the other three are listed as OUT.

The big game changer of all has been Roethlisberger. The Steelers were opened as four-point home favorites against their main rival -- the Ravens -- before they played their Monday night game against the Chiefs. When the sports books opened the game back up on Tuesday, the Ravens were a 1 ½-point favorite, a large adjustment for a starting quarterback in the league. By Wednesday afternoon, between a combination of Ravens bets and air moves by the bookmakers, the Ravens had been moved all the way up to -3 ½.

That is a massive move for one player. Early last season we figured that Peyton Manning was worth about nine points to the Colts, which is the highest point value ever associated with a player towards the spread.

Byron Leftwich will be the starter for the Steelers. It will be his first start since 2009. He has lost his past seven starts dating back to 2006 with the Jaguars. While Leftwich may be a little rusty, this rivalry doesn’t seem to care about who is playing. Six of the last 10 meetings between the two teams have been won by a field goal.

However, Roethlisberger’s impact is huge in this rivalry. The Steelers have lost all four games against the Ravens that he has missed, three of them by a field goal and the other by six points.

Roethlisberger being out also affected the total which dropped from 42 ½ to 40.

-- The Redskins opened as three-point favorites with the expectation that Vick wouldn’t play and that number has been driven up to -3.5. Eagles fans had been yelling for back-up Nick Foles to replace Vick all season. Last week against the Cowboys, they got their wish. He wasn’t too bad, but he wasn’t much better than Vick, either.

-- The Packers are three-point favorites at Detroit. The side and total hasn’t moved all week.

-- The Falcons opened as 9-point home favorites against the reeling Cardinals, who have lost five straight games. The game is up to -9 ½.

-- For some reason, we keep believing this will be the week Cam Newton comes up big, but every week, we seem to have another bad loss, whether it’s losing by a big score or losing because of late Newton mishaps. The red-hot Bucs opened as two-point road favorites at Carolina and Panthers money dropped the number to -1.

-- The Cowboys have been bet up from the opener of -7 to -7 ½ for their home game against the Browns.

-- Just when we thought the Jets were getting better after three straight covers, ending with an almost overtime win at New England, they have gone the other way and have been outscored 58-16 in their past two games. The Rams opened as three-point home favorites and have been bet up to -3 ½ at several books. Despite each team only having three wins, the Rams have been much more impressive this season.

-- The Patriots are laying a big number (-9) at home this week against the Colts, but no one has touched it yet. The Patriots haven’t covered any game this season when favored by more than seven points, and the Colts look to be much better right now than those teams the Pats couldn’t put away -- Cardinals, Jets, and Bills.

-- We just saw the Jaguars cover the big number at Green Bay, and now they get +14 ½ at Houston this week. The Texans opened as 15 ½-point favorites, but sharp money jumped all over it with the feeling that two touchdowns is just too many for any team to cover. The Texans have won and covered all three of their double-digit favorite spreads this season.

-- The Bengals, fresh off ending a four-game losing streak, opened as 3 ½-point favorites at Kansas City. Chiefs money has come in dropping the price to +3 ½ (-120).

-- The Saints are 4 ½-point favorites at Oakland. The game hasn’t been touched yet, but expect the move to come on Oakland.

-- The Broncos opened as eight-point home favorites against the Chargers, their highest spread of the season. The Broncos rating has been climbing every week as it looks like their defense, offense and special teams are all in synch. The number dropped to 7 ½, but has been bet back up to the opener.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24261 Followers:32
11/18/2012 11:49 AM

Total Talk - Week 11

November 17, 2012

Week 10 Recap

The ‘over’ produced an 8-6 ledger last week and once again, total players were helped with some late bursts, which of course created bad beats. For those you who had the ‘under’ in the Detroit-Minnesota and Dallas-Philadelphia matchups, we apologize. The two games saw 42 and 44 points posted in the second-half, including 32 and 27 respectively in the final quarter. On the season, the ‘over’ stands at 75-71-1.

Under the Lights – Literally!

This past Thursday, we thought the Buffalo-Miami game had a good chance to go ‘over’ after the Bills built a 13-7 lead over the Dolphins in the first quarter. The game was still on a good pace at halftime (19-7) but only seven points were scored in the second-half and the combined 33 points fell ‘under’ the closing number of 45 ½. Including this outcome, the ‘under’ has now gone 23-9 (72%) this season in primetime games. Looking at the games this Sunday (Pittsburgh-Baltimore) and Monday (San Francisco-Chicago), it’s safe to say that it would be surprising to see shootouts, especially when two of the four teams will be starting backup quarterbacks. Sometimes it’s better to roll with the trend than try to buck it!

Line Moves

The smart and public money went 2-0 last week with their early bets, both tickets coming in the SNF and MNF matchups. (**) Quarterback injuries have certainly helped this week’s moves, which have all gone down. Does nobody like to bet ‘over’ tickets anymore?

Here are the early moves at CRIS:

** Philadelphia at Washington: Line opened 46 and dropped to 44 ½
Arizona at Atlanta: Line opened 45 ½ and dropped to 44
Jacksonville at Houston: Line opened at 42 ½ and dropped to 40 ½
San Diego at Denver: Line opened at 50 ½ and dropped to 48 ½
** Baltimore at Pittsburgh : Line opened at 45 ½ and dropped to 40

Divisional Rematches

On the season, when opponents meet in their second divisional game, the ‘over’ has gone 5-2 (71%) in these contests. Last week, gamblers following the trend watched the Bills and Patriots play to another shootout. They also got lucky with the Detroit-Minnesota game (see above). This Sunday, there are three rematches on tap and two of them watched the ‘under’ cash in the first go ‘round.

Tampa Bay at Carolina: The Buccaneers defeated the Panthers 16-10 in Week 1 and the closing total of 45 ½ was never threatened. We fast forward 10 weeks and the total is higher (48) for the rematch, but why? For starters, Tampa Bay has watched the ‘over’ cash in six straight games and it’s getting scores from all over. In last week’s 34-24 victory over San Diego, the Bucs got a pick-six and a blocked punt return. Carolina has been held to 14 or less in five of its nine games, which should make you a little hesitant to back the ‘over.’ However, the Bucs defense (401 YPG) is the second-worst in the league and it’s banged-up with injuries too. If Cam Newton can’t produce against this unit, then Carolina has big problems.

Jacksonville at Houston: This number has dropped (see above) and you can understand why when you look at the style of Houston. The Texans’ defense is the second-best in the league and the offense grinds you down, which was clearly shown in Houston’s 27-7 win over Jacksonville in Week 2. It’s hard to argue for the Jaguars offense but they’ve played better on the road, averaging 20.8 points per game. Getting to that number won’t be easy but the Texans could be looking ahead to their Thanksgiving Day battle at Detroit. Including this year’s meeting, the ‘under’ has cashed in three straight between these teams.

San Diego at Denver: The Broncos have been great bets for the betting public lately (4-0 SU/ATS) and the ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in this span. The team hasn’t been held under 31 points during this span, and that includes their 35-24 road win over San Diego on MNF in Week 6. The number of points was a little misleading since turnovers created some short tracks and three touchdowns as well. The Chargers are one tough team to figure out and once again, they’ll probably be the best team not to make the playoffs. As much as you want to rip Phillip Rivers (and he deserves it), this guy puts up big numbers in Colorado. Since taking over in 2006, the Chargers have scored 35, 41, 38, 32, 33 and 29 points with Rivers under center. The Bolts are 5-1 in those games and the one loss came by one point.

Something has to give!

The total on the Patriots-Colts opened at 53 ½ and was pushed up to 54. New England has seen the ‘over’ cash in seven straight games. Meanwhile, Indianapolis has watched the ‘under’ go 6-2-1 on the season and that includes four consecutive ‘under’ tickets. A large reason for the low-scoring affairs is the Colts defense, which has given up 13, 13, 20 and 10 the past four weeks. Let’s be clear that those numbers came against two rookie QBs (Browns, Dolphins) and two inconsistent offenses in the Titans and Jaguars. Outside of a game against Green Bay in Week 5, the Colts haven’t come close to facing an attack similar to the Patriots. The Packers put up 27 points in that contest and you figure New England will at least get to that number. However, if Indianapolis has any realistic shot to win this game then you would expect them to milk the clock with rookie QB Andrew Luck. While we agree with most pundits that Luck is going to be great, he’s had trouble with tossing interceptions (7) on the road and those are daggers for ‘over’ bets.

Fearless Predictions

If it wasn’t for Seattle’s prolific offense, we would’ve had the sweep. Still, we’ll take the profits ($190) and look to build on the positive bankroll ($180). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!

Best Over: Tampa Bay-Carolina 48

Best Under: Baltimore-Pittsburgh 40

Best Team Total: Over Chargers 20 1/2

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 39 Tampa Bay-Carolina
Over 43 ½ Green Bay-Detroit
Under 48 N.Y. Jets-St. Louis

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24261 Followers:32
11/18/2012 11:52 AM

Week 11 Tips

November 16, 2012

Following a slew of underdog covers through the first half of the season, favorites are starting to cash the last few weeks. Road favorites have improved to 24-27 ATS on the season, while posting a 7-4 ATS mark the last two weeks. Five teams are laying points on the highway in Week 11, including Baltimore on Sunday night at Pittsburgh. We'll take a look at the four 'chalk' squads playing during the day, starting with Green Bay in a divisional showdown.

Packers (-3 ½, 52) at Lions - 1:00 PM EST

Detroit is struggling to stay in the Wild Card race, just one season after making the playoffs. The Lions attempt to reach the .500 mark with a victory over the Packers, coming off a road favorite loss at Minnesota last week. The defeat snapped a four-game ATS hot streak for Jim Schwartz's club, as the Lions look to beat Green Bay for just the second time in the last 11 matchups.

Green Bay is fresh off a bye week, while going for its fifth consecutive victory after beating its last four opponents by at least nine points. The Packers' offense is picking things up recently by cashing the 'over' in five of the last six contests, as Green Bay has topped the 27-point mark five times in this stretch. Mike McCarthy's team has covered just one of three times as a road favorite, but beat the Rams in Week 7 as four-point 'chalk,' 30-20.

Detroit is listed as a home underdog for the first time this season, as the Lions have cashed just once in three contests at Ford Field. In last Sunday's setback at Minnesota, the Lions racked up 329 yards through the air, but never got within a touchdown in a 34-24 loss. Detroit has beaten just one team that currently sits above .500 (Seattle), while both losses to upper-tier NFC teams (Chicago and San Francisco) have come on the highway.

Buccaneers (-1 ½, 48 ½) at Panthers - 1:00 PM EST

Carolina was predicted to make moves inside the NFC South this season, while the jury was out on Tampa Bay. Following a slow start, the Bucs overcame several close losses to put together a three-game winning streak and forge a 5-4 record. Meanwhile, the Panthers can't seem to get any momentum going, while suffering five losses of six points or less.

The latest disappointment for Carolina came in a 36-14 home rout at the hands of red-hot Denver, the second loss at Bank of America Stadium of at least three touchdowns. The Panthers have scored 14 points or less five times this season, including a 10-point effort in a season-opening loss at Tampa Bay as short road favorites. Carolina limited Tampa Bay to 258 yards in that loss, but the Panthers rushed for just 10 yards on 13 carries.

Tampa Bay's offense has blown up recently, scoring 34 points or more in four of the previous five contests. The Bucs continue to make backers happy, owning a 7-2 ATS record, while cashing the 'over' in six straight games. Most of Tampa Bay's success came early in the underdog role, but the Bucs have compiled a 2-1 ATS record as a favorite.

Bengals (-3 ½, 43 ½) at Chiefs - 1:00 PM EST

Kansas City is likely not going to be favored the rest of the season, but managed a cover as a 12 ½-point underdog at Pittsburgh on Monday night. The Chiefs actually took the lead for the first time all season at Heinz Field, but couldn't hold onto a 10-0 advantage to suffer their sixth straight defeat. The Bengals finally found the win column after four straight losses, as Cincinnati put together its most complete effort of the season.

Marvin Lewis' team avoided an 0-3 homestand after defeats to the Steelers and Broncos by dominating the Giants, 31-13 as 3 ½-point 'dogs. Andy Dalton finished a yard shy of 200, but tossed four touchdowns to pick up Cincinnati's first cover at Paul Brown Stadium this season. The Bengals are 0-2 on the road inside the AFC North, but Cincinnati has won both games outside its division against Washington and Jacksonville.

There are not many positives when it comes to the Chiefs, as Kansas City's offense has failed to bust the 16-point mark in each of its last five games (all losses). Two of Kansas City's three covers this season came against AFC North opponents, including a 9-6 defeat to Baltimore as six-point home 'dogs. The Chiefs have won two of the last three home meetings with the Bengals, but Cincinnati claimed the last two matchups in 2008 and 2009.

Saints (-4 ½, 54 ½) at Raiders - 4:05 PM EST

Oakland returns to the Black Hole after getting a black hole blown through them at Baltimore, 55-20 last Sunday. The Raiders have given up a whopping 97 points the last two weeks as they face a Saints' club that is averaging nearly 28 points per game. New Orleans scores plenty of points, but it also allows points at the same frantic rate.

The Saints were the first team to solve the Falcons, handing Atlanta its first defeat of the season last Sunday, 31-27 as one-point underdogs. New Orleans still has an outside shot at returning to the postseason, while searching for its first three-game winning streak of the season. Joe Vitt's club is just 6-10 ATS the last 16 opportunities as a road favorite, including a 1-1 ATS mark this season.

The Raiders will be without running back Darren McFadden (ankle), while going for just their second home cover in five tries. Oakland failed to cash in three chances as a home favorite, but won outright in its lone instance when receiving points at O.Co Coliseum against Pittsburgh in Week 3. Dennis Allen's team hasn't seen a total above 50 all season, as the Raiders finished 'under' the total last time they saw a number in this range (vs. New England last September).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24261 Followers:32
11/18/2012 11:54 AM

NFL Week 11 Preview: Colts at Patriots

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (6-3)

at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (6-3)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT
Line: New England -9, Total: 54

Two teams riding long winning streaks clash in Foxboro, MA on Sunday when the Colts and Patriots meet for the 13th time in 10 seasons on Sunday.

The old rivals meet again, this time with Andrew Luck under center for Indy. The Colts have won four in a row, SU and ATS, including a couple of road games (Tennessee and Jacksonville). Along with strong play from Luck, the rebuilding defense has played well too, allowing 14.0 PPG during the winning streak. Of course, those games were against some weak offenses. The Patriots are still lighting up the scoreboard, with 37.0 PPG during their three-game win streak. Their problem is, like last year, an underwhelming defense. The Pats have won nine of 10 SU at home, but are just 4-6 ATS during that span.

Who will prevail in this AFC East rivalry game? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Luck has actually scored more rushing touchdowns (four) than passing touchdowns (three) during the four-game win streak, but he'll likely drop back 40+ times against New England's woeful pass defense (285 passing YPG allowed, 4th-most in NFL). Luck will mostly target the NFL'd second-leading receiver in Reggie Wayne (931 rec. yds), who has faced New England 13 times in his career, gaining 697 yards (87 per game) and 4 TD over the past eight meetings. The Colts won't completely abandon the run though, especially if RB Donald Brown (knee) is ready to start on Sunday. The Patriots allowed 162 rushing yards to Buffalo last week, but have been one of the better run-stop units in the league at 97 rushing YPG allowed (8th in NFL). If Brown can't handle the entire workload, RB Vick Ballard has improved greatly throughout his rookie year, totaling 331 yards and 4.1 YPC during the four-game win streak. One thing the entire Colts team will need to be wary of is New England's ability to take the football away. The Pats have forced multiple turnovers in six straight games, totaling 18 turnovers during this stretch.

Patriots QB Tom Brady is heating up with 8 TD passes and 0 INT over his past three games. He has usually played well in this series too, winning nine of his 13 career meetings (including postseason) with Indianapolis, while throwing for 240 YPG, 24 TD and just 12 picks. The possible return of TE Aaron Hernandez (ankle) gives the Patriots a great chance to drop 31+ points on the Colts for the fourth straight year. Although Wes Welker (810 rec. yds, 2 TD) has been limited by an ankle injury, he expects to play as well, joining WR Brandon Lloyd (480 rec. yds) and TE Rob Gronkowski (611 rec. yds, 8 TD) in what is arguably the league's most potent receiving corps. But New England has put greater emphasis on running the football this season, averaging 164 rushing YPG in the past six contests. RB Stevan Ridley has 581 rushing yards (4.8 YPC) and 5 TD during this six-game span, and he will be used heavily against Indy's 22nd-ranked rushing defense (120 YPG) on Sunday. The Patriots were able to win the turnover battle in each of the past two wins over Indy, and they have just four giveaways over the past five games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24261 Followers:32
11/18/2012 11:56 AM

NFL Week 11 Preview: Packers at Lions

GREEN BAY PACKERS (6-3)

at DETROIT LIONS (4-5)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Green Bay -3, Total: 51.5

The surging Packers hope last week's bye didn't cool them down as they visit NFC North rival Detroit on Sunday.

The Packers have won four straight (3-1 ATS) and are coming off a bye week, giving WR Jordy Nelson another week to get healthy. The wildly inconsistent Lions return home to host a Packers team that’s beaten them SU 12 of 13 times. The Packers dominated in Detroit on Thanksgiving Day 2011, but the Lions did pull off a stunning, 7-3 win over the Packers in 2010 (Aaron Rodgers was injured during the game). The Lions have repeatedly fallen behind early, only to rally in the second half, including last week’s loss at Minnesota. But they are 4-1 ATS since the start of October.

Who will prevail in this NFC North rivalry game? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Rodgers is having another monster season (246 passing YPG, 25 TD, 5 INT), and he has been especially potent in his three dome games, torching the Colts, Texans and Rams for a combined 915 yards, 12 TD and just 1 INT. He'll get a healthy Jordy Nelson back at receiver, the same player who had 243 receiving yards and 4 TD in those two most recent dome games. Nelson also had 162 yards and three scores the last time he faced Detroit -- without Rodgers at quarterback. WRs Randall Cobb and James Jones continue to be touchdown machines as they help fill the void of injured top WR Greg Jennings (abdominal surgery). Cobb has 6 TD in his past five games, while Jones has a team-best eight touchdowns through the air. Jones also has 3 TD in his past four trips to Detroit. It appears as if the Packers have finally given up on trying to run the football with Alex Green (3.1 yards per carry). James Starks had 17 carries in the team's last game versus Arizona, but managed a pedestrian 61 yards (3.6 YPC). The Lions' run defense is mediocre (116 YPG, 19th in NBA), but the Packers figure to try their luck with Detroit's strong, but injury-riddled passing defense (213 YPG allowed, 7th in NFL). Lions safeties Louis Delmas (knee) and Amari Spievey (concussion) are both doubtful for Sunday's game. Last season, Packers back-up QB Matt Flynn torched the Lions secondary for 480 passing yards and 6 TD.

Lions QB Matthew Stafford is eager to face this Packers defense that will be without its two best players in DB Charles Woodson (collarbone) and LB Clay Matthews (hamstring). Stafford threw for 520 yards and 5 TD when these teams last met on New Year's Day, and is currently on fire with 966 yards and 6 TD in his past three games. Green Bay's pass defense isn't as bad this season (244 YPG, 21st in NFL) as it was last year (300 YPG, last in NFL), but the Packers have allowed 303 passing YPG in the past six contests. The only negative for Stafford is that his top two receivers (Calvin Johnson and Titus Young) are dealing with knee injuries, but both are expected to play on Sunday. Johnson has 801 receiving yards and 10 TD in nine career games against Green Bay, including 244 yards and 1 TD on January 1. With Detroit leading the NFL in pass attempts (44.6 per game), it doesn't leave a lot of room for the running game to thrive. Detroit had just 60 rushing yards last week and has a total of 139 rushing yards (3.3 YPC) in the past two home games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24261 Followers:32
11/18/2012 11:58 AM

NFL Week 11 Preview: Chargers at Broncos

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (4-5)

at DENVER BRONCOS (6-3)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT
Line: Denver -7.5, Total: 48

The sizzling-hot Broncos seek a fifth straight victory when they return home to face struggling San Diego on Sunday.

The Chargers are 2-5 (SU and ATS) in their past seven games, with both victories coming against lowly Kansas City. Philip Rivers and Co. have had recent success in Denver, winning three in a row SU and averaging 34.7 PPG there since Rivers took over as the starting quarterback. But the Broncos have been great lately, winning four in a row SU and ATS, and scoring more than 30 points in each of those wins. They’ve beaten the Chargers twice in a row (both in San Diego), including a Week 6 win in which San Diego took a 24-0 lead, only to be outscored 35-0 in the second half. QB Peyton Manning has thrown for 300-plus yards in six of his past seven games, including 309 in that Week 6 meeting.

Can the Broncos add to their impressive win streak on Sunday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

San Diego is 5-1 SU (4-1-1 ATS) in its past six visits to Denver. For his career, Rivers is 9-4 as a starter versus the Broncos with 3,188 passing yards (245 YPG), 22 TD and 10 INT, equaling a 100.3 passer rating. TE Antonio Gates has also found some room in this series with 592 receiving yards and 6 TD in the past nine meetings, scoring twice in the Week 6 showdown. WR Malcom Floyd had 100 receiving yards and a touchdown in his last visit to Sports Authority Field. Denver's pass defense has been stronger than usual though, allowing just 218 YPG (11th in NFL). But both teams have major injury concerns for this one. Chargers top RB Ryan Mathews has been limited in practice with a neck injury, making him questionable for Sunday. If he cannot play, that leaves Ronnie Brown (4.5 YPC) and Jackie Battle (4.8 YPC, 3 TD) to try to chew up yards against a Broncos run-stop unit that has held opponents to 98 rushing YPG (10th in NFL), including a paltry 71 rushing YPG in the past four games. However, Denver also has some key injuries on the defensive side of the ball in DE Elvin Dumervil (shoulder) and CB Tracy Porter (head), who are both questionable to play in this game.

Manning's accuracy has been truly remarkable, as he's completing 70 percent of his passes for the season, topping this mark in each of his past six games. He also hasn't been touched, getting sacked a total of three times during this six-game stretch. And in four home tilts this season, he's thrown for 1,226 yards (307 per game), 10 TD and zero interceptions in 146 pass attempts. Manning is making a star out of WR Demaryius Thomas who has 891 receiving yards (99 per game) and an AFC-best 19 receptions of 20+ yards. Although he scored a touchdown in the comeback win over San Diego, it was Eric Decker who starred with six catches for 98 yards and a fourth-quarter TD grab. Decker has a team-best 7 TD this season. Denver's ground game has been suspect, gaining just 102 YPG (21st in NFL). However, Willis McGahee ran all over the Chargers last year, gaining 242 yards on 39 carries (6.2 YPC) in the two-game series sweep. He had just 3.3 YPC in the Week 6 meeting, but finished the day with 98 total yards. San Diego ranks second in the NFL in rushing defense (83 YPG), but is a mediocre 18th against the pass (234 YPG).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24261 Followers:32
11/18/2012 11:58 AM

NFL Week 11 Preview: Chargers at Broncos

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (4-5)

at DENVER BRONCOS (6-3)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT
Line: Denver -7.5, Total: 48

The sizzling-hot Broncos seek a fifth straight victory when they return home to face struggling San Diego on Sunday.

The Chargers are 2-5 (SU and ATS) in their past seven games, with both victories coming against lowly Kansas City. Philip Rivers and Co. have had recent success in Denver, winning three in a row SU and averaging 34.7 PPG there since Rivers took over as the starting quarterback. But the Broncos have been great lately, winning four in a row SU and ATS, and scoring more than 30 points in each of those wins. They’ve beaten the Chargers twice in a row (both in San Diego), including a Week 6 win in which San Diego took a 24-0 lead, only to be outscored 35-0 in the second half. QB Peyton Manning has thrown for 300-plus yards in six of his past seven games, including 309 in that Week 6 meeting.

Can the Broncos add to their impressive win streak on Sunday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

San Diego is 5-1 SU (4-1-1 ATS) in its past six visits to Denver. For his career, Rivers is 9-4 as a starter versus the Broncos with 3,188 passing yards (245 YPG), 22 TD and 10 INT, equaling a 100.3 passer rating. TE Antonio Gates has also found some room in this series with 592 receiving yards and 6 TD in the past nine meetings, scoring twice in the Week 6 showdown. WR Malcom Floyd had 100 receiving yards and a touchdown in his last visit to Sports Authority Field. Denver's pass defense has been stronger than usual though, allowing just 218 YPG (11th in NFL). But both teams have major injury concerns for this one. Chargers top RB Ryan Mathews has been limited in practice with a neck injury, making him questionable for Sunday. If he cannot play, that leaves Ronnie Brown (4.5 YPC) and Jackie Battle (4.8 YPC, 3 TD) to try to chew up yards against a Broncos run-stop unit that has held opponents to 98 rushing YPG (10th in NFL), including a paltry 71 rushing YPG in the past four games. However, Denver also has some key injuries on the defensive side of the ball in DE Elvin Dumervil (shoulder) and CB Tracy Porter (head), who are both questionable to play in this game.

Manning's accuracy has been truly remarkable, as he's completing 70 percent of his passes for the season, topping this mark in each of his past six games. He also hasn't been touched, getting sacked a total of three times during this six-game stretch. And in four home tilts this season, he's thrown for 1,226 yards (307 per game), 10 TD and zero interceptions in 146 pass attempts. Manning is making a star out of WR Demaryius Thomas who has 891 receiving yards (99 per game) and an AFC-best 19 receptions of 20+ yards. Although he scored a touchdown in the comeback win over San Diego, it was Eric Decker who starred with six catches for 98 yards and a fourth-quarter TD grab. Decker has a team-best 7 TD this season. Denver's ground game has been suspect, gaining just 102 YPG (21st in NFL). However, Willis McGahee ran all over the Chargers last year, gaining 242 yards on 39 carries (6.2 YPC) in the two-game series sweep. He had just 3.3 YPC in the Week 6 meeting, but finished the day with 98 total yards. San Diego ranks second in the NFL in rushing defense (83 YPG), but is a mediocre 18th against the pass (234 YPG).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24261 Followers:32
11/18/2012 12:00 PM

NFL Week 11 Preview: Ravens at Steelers

BALTIMORE RAVENS (7-2)

at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (6-3)


Kickoff: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: Baltimore -3.5, Total: 40

One of the NFL’s biggest rivalries resumes, but with a bunch of key players missing, when Baltimore visits Pittsburgh on Sunday night.

The Ravens will continue to be without LB Ray Lewis (triceps) and CBs Lardarius Webb (ACL) and Jimmy Smith (hernia), while Pittsburgh will be missing QB Ben Roethlisberger (shoulder), WR Antonio Brown (ankle) and likely S Troy Polamalu (calf). With Roethlisberger out indefinitely, the Steelers will go conservative with back-up Byron Leftwich, a statue in the pocket. The Ravens swept Pittsburgh last year, SU and ATS, including a last-second win on a Torrey Smith TD at Heinz Field. Nine of these teams’ last 11 meetings have been decided by one possession.

Can the injury-riddled Steelers beat their division foe on Sunday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Ravens QB Joe Flacco has played pretty well in this series, throwing 6 TD and just one interception over the past four meetings with Pittsburgh. He's also coming off one of the best games of his career, tallying four total touchdowns and throwing for 341 yards. The emergence of WR Torrey Smith (3 TD in past two games) and consistency of WR Anquan Boldin (4+ catches in six of seven games) should allow Baltimore to move the football through the air despite Pittsburgh's league-best pass defense (171 YPG allowed). The ground game is a bit of a concern though, as the Ravens have been held to fewer than 90 rushing yards in three of the past four games, and RB Ray Rice is battling a toe injury. Since running for 141 yards in Pittsburgh in 2009, Rice has been held to 95 yards on 38 carries (2.5 YPC) in his past three visits to Heinz Field. And it is never easy running through the Steel Curtain, as Pittsburgh currently ranks fifth in the NFL in rushing defense (95 YPG). However, the Steelers did give up 142 rushing yards (4.1 YPC) in last week's 16-13 overtime win over Kansas City.

Leftwich hasn't faced this Ravens defense since 2005 when he led the Jaguars to a 30-3 victory, throwing for 211 yards and a touchdown. In relief of Roethlisberger last week, Leftwich completed 7-of-14 passes for 73 yards (5.2 YPA), 0 TD and 0 INT. Although he still has use of the team's leading receiver in WR Mike Wallace (539 rec. yds) and leading pass catcher in TE Heath Miller (43 receptions), who have both scored six touchdowns, the Steelers will likely employ a heavy ground game. RB Rashard Mendenhall (Achilles) expects to return to the field for the first time since Week 6 to join Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman in the backfield. After three straight games with 140+ rushing yards, the Steelers were held to a mere 95 yards (3.3 YPC) last week, as Dwyer managed just 56 yards on 19 carries (2.9 YPC) and Redman was even worse at 21 yards on eight attempts (2.6 YPC). But without many of their stars on defense, this Baltimore team has been among the worst in the NFL, ranking 26th in both passing defense (258 YPG) and rushing defense (132 YPG). Despite these poor rankings, Baltimore ranks 13th in scoring defense, allowing just 21.8 PPG.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: