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11/05/2012 07:29 PM
NFL

Monday, November 5

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Tale of the tape: Eagles at Saints
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Take a quick glance at the tale of the tape for Monday night’s showdown between the Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints.

Offense

Although he scored two touchdowns, RB LeSean McCoy was held to just 45 yards against the Falcons last week. McCoy could take the mounting pressure off the Eagles' passing game by getting untracked against the Saints, who most recently allowed 225 yards on the ground to the Broncos. Michael Vick was held under 200 yards passing for the second time in three games, throwing for 191 despite 35 attempts. Coach Andy Reid was mulling over a QB change for this contest, but has decided to give Vick a shot at redemption against the Saints.

Drew Brees' job security is in far better shape than Vick's, but his performance in Sunday night's 34-14 setback to Denver left a bit to be desired. In interim coach Joe Vitt's first contest since returning to the sideline from suspension, the top-rated passing game mustered just 213 yards. The Saints will be without RB and second-leading receiver Darren Sproles, who recently underwent hand surgery. The New Orleans rushing attack has been limited to 72.6 yards per game this season - a full 12.5 yards less than 31st-ranked Oakland.

Edge: Saints


Defense

The Philadelphia stop unit didn't show much improvement last Sunday in its first game since secondary coach Todd Bowles replaced Juan Castillo as defensive coordinator. The Eagles surrendered a season-high 146 rushing yards and allowed scores on the Falcons' first six possessions. Less than 15 months after being diagnosed with a brain abnormality, DT Mike Patterson was activated from the reserve/non-football illness list Saturday and will suit up Monday.

New Orleans is the first team since 1950 to allow 400 yards in seven consecutive games. The Saints rank 30th in points allowed (30.9) and are allowing an NFL-worst 474.7 yards per game, more than 100 worse than last season's team which went 13-3. They showed no improvement last Sunday, allowing a season-high 530 yards.

Edge: Eagles


Special teams

The Saints' special teams took a hit this week with the injury to Sproles, who handles both kickoffs (averaging 28.7 yards per return) and punts (a 6.6-yard average). Special teams captain Courtney Roby (shoulder) has also being ruled of Monday night’s contest. However, K Thomas Morstead boasts an average punt of 51.3 yards (second highest in the NFL) and the return coverage is keeping that at 46.4 average yards net on punts – tops in the league.

The Eagles' special teams are nothing special, largely because coordinator Bobby April doesn't have the personnel to work with. April said WR Damaris Johnson will return punts vs. the Saints. "Damaris will be the guy. I know he's looking forward to it," April said this week. "He's from New Orleans. It'll be a big homecoming for him and I think he'll play really well."

Edge: Saints


Word on the street

"They are fixable…There were a lot of things (that were covered in) training camp, day one kind of things that shouldn't have happened. We corrected them in the meetings and we'll go from there." -- Todd Bowles on the team’s defensive issues.

"My biggest nightmare against Michael Vick was in 2004 in a playoff game when I was with the Rams… That was my first exposure to him, and he ran for 180 yards. I want to say this about Michael Vick, he is truly one of those gifted athletes that, from a coaching standpoint, can keep you up at night."—Joe Vitt on his perception of Michael Vick.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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11/05/2012 07:31 PM
MNF - Eagles at Saints

November 3, 2012

A pivotal game takes place for two desperate teams in the NFC on Monday night in New Orleans, as the Saints and Eagles each try to get back into the playoff race. Philadelphia has seen plenty of controversy this season with the whispers of Michael Vick being replaced at quarterback after posting a 3-4 record through seven games. That's nothing compared to all the talk around the Saints since "Bountygate," culminating in a dreadful 2-5 mark.

The Saints have endured plenty of hardships this season with head coach Sean Payton suspended and all the flux surrounding this team with the "Bountygate" fallout. New Orleans stumbled to an 0-4 start, which included an embarrassing overtime loss to Kansas City in Week 3 in which the Saints threw away a 24-6 lead. Things have relatively improved over the last month, as the Saints have won two of its last three, but that was topped off by a rout at the hands of New Orleans native Peyton Manning and the Broncos in last Sunday's 34-14 Denver victory.

The Eagles are trying to dig out of a hole, even though a victory would get Andy Reid's team back to .500. Philadelphia is coming off three consecutive defeats, including an ugly 30-17 home loss to Atlanta, in which the Eagles fell behind, 24-7 at the half. The offense is coming apart at the seams, as the Eagles have been outgained in three straight games, while Vick is throwing an interception for every touchdown (8/8). The Eagles have cashed just two of seven times this season, but one of those covers came as a road underdog at Pittsburgh in a 14-13 loss back in Week 5.

New Orleans won and covered all nine games at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome last season, but the lone victory this season came in Week 5 against San Diego. The Saints needed to rally from a 10-point deficit in the third quarter, as Drew Brees burned his former team for four touchdowns. Since 2008, New Orleans owns a strong 14-3 ATS record as a home favorite of less than seven points, as the two earlier non-covers against Washington and Kansas City came when laying at least 8 ½ points.

Philadelphia is visiting the Big Easy for the first time since December 2007, a 38-23 victory over New Orleans as three-point 'dogs. The Saints picked up revenge against the Eagles in the most recent meeting in Philadelphia, a 48-22 blowout in Week 2 of 2009, as Brees tossed three touchdowns in the win.

New Orleans is playing under the Monday night lights for the first time since blowing out Atlanta in Week 16 of last season, 45-16. The Saints have won five straight Monday night contests at the Superdome dating back to 2008, while covering four times in this span. The Eagles are also making their 2012 Monday debut, as Philadelphia has cashed its last four road games under the Monday night lights since 2006.

One thing to keep an eye for the Eagles is the 5-1 ATS record as a road underdog since 2010, including four outright victories. If the Eagles want to get back in the playoff picture, the next three weeks are crucial for tiebreaker purposes. After Monday's game (a loss could put a fork in New Orleans), the Eagles play two divisional opponents as the Cowboys invade Philadelphia, followed by a trip to Washington. In fact, the Eagles play only one non-conference team the rest of the way (Bengals in Week 15).

The Saints don't have it easy at home coming up, with the Falcons and 49ers coming to Louisiana over the next month, while New Orleans has to travel to Oakland in Week 11. Monday's game will feature the seventh time the Saints have a total of at least 50, hitting the 'over' four of the first six opportunities in this situation.

New Orleans is listed as three-point home favorites on Monday, as the total is set between 51 ½ and 52 at most books. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST and can be seen nationally on ESPN.
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11/05/2012 07:35 PM
Books gets destroyed

November 5, 2012

Las Vegas sports books just endured one of the roughest weekends ever in state history. Official record aren’t kept by the Nevada Gaming Control Board on daily numbers like they do for the Super Bowl, but from talking with several directors around town and having a personal understanding of what was one of the worst days ever in Las Vegas was, I feel comfortable in estimating that Nevada sports books lost anywhere from $7-to-9 million over the weekend, and that could be a low estimate.

No sports book director gave me any indication or hint of their actual numbers, nor did I ask, because it isn’t appropriate to put any of them in position to discuss their company funds. But after seeing the results of the weekend, which became an on-going parlay heaven for bettors and hearing the tone deflection in the directors voices after talking with them on a weekly basis, this was no ordinary weekend, but one that had been brewing for sometime.

“This was the perfect storm that has been brewing for the entire season,” said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne. “It’s a disaster.”

A perfect storm indeed, where negative energy meets positive energy and explodes. The negative energy -- for the bettors -- has been the underdogs hitting at 61 percent over the season in the NFL, which has caused most public bettors -- who love betting the favorites -- to have a terrible season.

The positive energy is when the favorites finally start hitting. Over the weekend, beginning with Thursday night’s Chargers cover, the key favorites rolled into monster parlay payouts where six, seven, and eight teamers were cashing like never seen before. Even 10-team parlays were being cashed out at 800-to-1, odds that a book can never recoup.

“I’ve been here (LVH Super Book) eight-and-a-half years and this is the worst day I’ve had,” said LVH Super Book vice-president Jay Kornegay.

“This could rival won of the worst Sunday's we've ever had since I’ve been running a book,” said Osborne, a 25-year veteran of running books for Michael Gaughan’s properties.

Saturday started out decent for the books, but at the end of the day, college favorites went 32-19-1 against-the-spread. The big bang was the prime time games with LSU, Oregon, and Kansas State covering. The OVER in the Oregon and Kansas State games were almost as popular as the sides, and of course, the majority of the betting public had them all locked together in a parlay. Four-teamers pay 11-to-1, five-teamers pay 20-to-1, and they were popping.

It got even worse when the late Saturday results were posted with UCLA and Oregon State covering. Saturday was a big loser for the books, but the effects of the day wouldn’t be finished because the lingering live games were all going to public favorites on Sunday putting the books in a hole before the day even started.

This is when the big tidal wave starts to take it’s shape and puts the sports book in a position to have to beat down at least half of their big wagered upon games. On Sunday, they didn’t win any of those games.

“If you don’t win the morning games, you can’t recover,“ said Kornegay. “You’re looking at a red number that the afternoon or evening games can’t erase.

“We lost seven of the eight early games, the only game we won on was the Panthers beating the Redskins. It was pretty much Murphy’s law all day.”

The big game that got it all started was the Broncos covering four points at Cincinnati, and then one after another, every game fell the bettors way.

“We had some leftovers from a rough Saturday that spilled over and then our worst case scenario happened in the early games with Denver, Baltimore, and the Lions covering,” said Osborne. “Those three teams were wound together pretty tight on a lot of parlays, and then everything else followed suit with the afternoon games where Seattle was extremely bad, but the Bucs were even worse because it was the last game posted (before the Atlanta game) and everything tied in from the day that was still alive, paid out.”

When the last game is posted, the main screen doesn’t even show the parlay card results which was an entirely different wave of destruction, and perhaps maybe the most destructive.

On the day, the favorites went 8-4 against-the-spread, but even the underdogs that covered were either mixed with public support like the Panthers (+3) and Steelers (+3), or completely one sided, like the Colts (2.5) and the Buccaneers (+1).

“We’re not a big parlay card house, so I guess I feel fortunate that we don’t have that type of liability,” Kornegay said.

The big parlay card houses in town are the local properties, off the strip, who kind of live and die by the sword on a weekly basis. This season, they have been living quite extravagantly thanks to the underdogs, but on Sunday, they gave back a huge chunk of it.

The big blow came when the Falcons kicked a field goal with seconds left to take a six-point lead and cover the four-point spread.

“What was weird was that every game that had the possibility of having a back door cover at the end that might have helped us on a few games, didn’t happen,” Osborne said.

When the books can’t even get a back door cover for help, the kind that kills the small players' six-team parlay on a weekly basis, you know the perfect storm has hit.
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11/05/2012 07:39 PM
November Records

November 1, 2012


With trick or treating and NFL underdogs satisfying many a sweet tooth this season, we move on into the second half of the 2012 NFL campaign.

And thanks to our database, we learn how teams have fared during the month of November in five key situational roles, namely: Favorites, Dogs, Home, Away and in Division.

Before carving up that Thanksgiving Day turkey, be sure to check out this list of the appetizing team results. Listed below are the good, bad and ugly team trends in games played in the NFL during November since 1990. Enjoy the games.

HOME TEAMS

-- Good: If you go through many Twitter pages or sports forums, you will find Tony Romo has a host of nicknames, some that cannot be posted here. Yet despite this, Romo and his predecessors at quarterback have been backed by fine defenses this month and are 37-18 ATS when playing in Big D. Dallas will have two chances to improve this record, on Thanksgiving and four days prior.

-- Bad: Having won a couple Super Bowls in the past several years, one would not use the word like 'mediocre' to describe the New York Giants very often, yet that is precisely what the G-Men are at home this month. Looking back, they have left their football-betting backers with a 13-27 ATS mark. They will have Pittsburgh the first Sunday of the month and a Sunday night affair with Green Bay to close November in New Jersey.

Another NFL team not synonymous with success is St. Louis, who last had a winning season in 2003. The Rams hired Jeff Fisher to take them out of this desolate existence and though general improvement has been witnessed, there is a long way to go. St. Louis is a dreadful 14-33 ATS at home this month and thanks to a bye week, only has one game at the E. J. Dome on November 18.

-- Keep an eye on: Buffalo and Oakland have been failures for years, yet for some reason they go in opposite directions in November playing on their own field. The Bills are a sharp 27-16 ATS, as the bone-chilling colds starts to set in, while the Raiders "Commit to Excellence" are just words, not to be taken seriously because of their 15-25 ATS record.

AWAY TEAMS

-- Keep an eye on: Over the last decade or more, when you hear the names Atlanta, San Diego and Detroit for NFL football, what are they associated with, success or failure? The Falcons and Chargers certainly fit the former and it shows in how they play on the road with Atlanta 26-15 ATS and San Diego 25-15 against the spread.

Toss out Detroit's 2011 campaign and the Lions and they have made more bad choices than the Octomom. Send Detroit out of MoTown and they are 13-25 ATS.

FAVORITES

-- Bad: Robert Griffin III has already done special things in a Redskins uniform, even guiding his team to home victories, something they have not been very good at recently. (36-44 SU, 2002-11) With RG3 doing his part fueled by Subway, maybe he takes the whole team over to the sub shop when they are in the role of favorite, since the Skins are 10-25 ATS. - which ties nicely into the lack of success starting rookie QB's have had in the league this season. This month, Washington will be giving points to Carolina and possibly to Philadelphia on November 18.

-- Keep an eye on: Previously, Dallas has been mentioned as rock solid home wager and naturally this has often come in the role as the favorite, doling out points. With this being true, the Cowboys are winners when passing points to the competition and are 39-20 versus the oddsmakers.

The Romeo Crennel era in Kansas City is starting to look it might last as long as the Rick Perry for President campaign. Seemingly, every mistake the Chiefs make is multiplied, giving credence to their failures and supporting their 10-25 ATS record. K.C. might be favored one time when the Bengals visit them.

DOGS

-- Keep an eye on: Two teams from the same division are polar opposites when it comes to how they perform when on the receiving end of catching linemakers' digits. Chicago is a sparkling 34-21 ATS as an underdog and is presumed to be in this role at San Francisco on a Monday night.

Detroit on the other hand is a feeble 22-38 ATS as a dastardly dog. Precisely how often oddsmakers will place them in this position is difficult to say with a road game in Minnesota and Ford Field affairs with Green Bay (Nov.18) and Houston on Thanksgiving.

DIVISION

-- Good: In the past, New Orleans has been cleaning up on the NFC South in the 11th month of the year, but this year's team and situation is completely different. The Saints have no defense, no running game and no real head coach, which makes it hard to conceive they will improve upon their 26-13 ATS record vs. division partners. Let's see how they perform in the bayou when Atlanta pays a visit on November 11.

-- Keep an eye on: For those betting on football that like numbers and appreciate coincidence, this is for you. Both Buffalo and Washington are 15-25 ATS against division opposition the past 21 years. This November, each will play one home and road game in their division and each circumstance has the Bills and Redskins playing them with four days between games. Weird!

Below is a list of each team with their November (SU/ATS) records from last season, 2008-2010, and their schedule for the month.

2012 NOVEMBER BREAKDOWN
Category 2011 2008-10 Week
TEAM SU ATS SU ATS 9 10 11 12
ARZ 3-1 3-1 6-8 6-8 @ GB -- @ ATL STL
ATL 3-1 1-2-1 10-4 10-4 DAL @ NO ARZ @ TB
BAL 3-1 2-1-1 10-4 8-6 @ CLE OAK @ PIT @ SD
BUF 0-4 1-3 4-9 6-6-1 @ HOU @ NE MIA @ IND
CAR 1-2 1-2 5-8 6-7 @ WSH DEN TB @ PHI
CHI 3-1 3-1 7-7 5-8-1 @ TEN HOU @ SF MIN
CIN 2-2 1-2-1 4-8 5-7 DEN NYG @ KC OAK
CLE 1-3 2-2 3-10 4-8-1 BAL -- @ DAL PIT
DAL 4-0 1-3 9-4 9-4 @ ATL @ PHI CLE WSH
DEN 4-0 4-0 5-8 5-8 @ CIN @ CAR SD @ KC
DET 1-2 1-2 1-13 3-10-1 @ JAX @ MIN GB HOU
GB 4-0 3-1 6-7 7-5-1 ARZ -- @ DET @ NYG
HOU 3-0 3-0 3-10 6-7 @ CHI JAX @ DET @ TEN
IND 0-3 0-3 12-3 7-6-2 MIA @ JAX @ NE BUF
JAX 1-2 1-2 6-6 5-7 DET IND @ HOU TEN
KC 0-4 1-3 5-7 8-4 @ SD @ PIT CIN DEN
MIA 3-1 4-0 9-5 6-8 @ IND TEN @ BUF SEA
MIN 0-3 0-2-1 10-3 7-5-1 @ SEA DET -- @ CHI
NE 3-1 3-1 7-6 6-6-1 -- BUF IND @ NYJ
NO 3-0 3-0 10-2 7-5 PHI ATL @ OAK SF
NYG 1-3 1-3 8-5 6-7 PIT @ CIN -- GB
NYJ 2-2 1-3 9-4 7-6 -- @ SEA @ STL NE
OAK 3-1 3-1 3-9 5-7 TB @ BAL NO @ CIN
PHI 1-3 1-3 8-6 6-8 @ NO DAL @ WSH CAR
PIT 2-1 1-2 8-5 7-6 @ NYG KC BAL @ CLE
SD 0-4 0-4 9-3 8-4 KC @ TB @ DEN BAL
SF 3-1 3-1 6-6 7-4-1 -- STL CHI @ NO
SEA 2-2 3-1 3-11 4-9-1 MIN NYJ -- @ MIA
STL 1-3 1-3 2-10 6-6 -- @ SF NYJ @ ARZ
TB 0-4 1-3 7-4 9-3 @ OAK SD @ CAR ATL
TEN 2-2 3-1 9-4 7-6 CHI @ MIA -- @ JAX
WSH 1-3 2-2 3-8 4-6-1 CAR -- PHI @ DAL


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11/05/2012 07:43 PM
NFL Week 9 Preview: Eagles at Saints

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (3-4)

at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (2-5)


Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: New Orleans -3, Total: 51.5

Two teams desperate for a victory cap off Week 9 when the Eagles visit the Saints on Monday night.

It’s getting close to do-or-die time for both these teams, and they both looked awful last week. The Eagles let Atlanta jump all over them at home, their third SU loss in a row, and they’re rumored to be ready to turn to rookie QB Nick Foles. Starting QB Michael Vick didn’t turn it over last week, but he reportedly made multiple mistakes changing plays. Philly fired defensive coordinator Juan Castillo during its bye week but still allowed 392 yards and 30 points at home to Atlanta after making that move. New Orleans struggled in Denver, with TE Jimmy Graham clearly hampered by his ankle injury. The Saints defense is still the worst in the NFL, even with the return of LB Jonathan Vilma and DE Will Smith, as they allowed 500-plus yards each of the past two weeks and they’ve yet to hold an opponent under 400 yards.

Which team will leave New Orleans with a much-needed victory on Monday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Vick threw for just 5.5 yards per pass attempt in last week's 30-17 loss to Atlanta, but threw a touchdown with no picks, giving him 9 TD and 8 INT on the year. With the Saints defense playing so poorly against both the run and the pass, Philly can choose to attack either way. Last week, the Broncos threw for 305 yards and rushed for 225 yards against New Orleans. No NFL running back is more versatile than LeSean McCoy, who is being used more and more in the passing game recently with 14 catches in the past three weeks. He will likely improve his running over this span, where he's gained just 120 yards on 46 carries (2.6 YPC). The speed of McCoy and WR DeSean Jackson, who has had either eight or nine targets in every game this season, needs to be utilized against this horrific Saints defense. Speaking of defense, the Eagles have to find a way to put pressure on the quarterback, as they have a pitiful two sacks over their past four games. This lack of a pass rush is a big reason the defense has forced just two turnovers in the past five games.

Although Saints QB Drew Brees does have a quick release, he has been sacked 13 times already this year. That hasn't affected his production though, as Brees ranks second in the NFL with 2,310 passing yards and 20 TD. Even though Graham still hasn't fully recovered from his high ankle sprain, he was still able to catch five passes on 10 targets for 63 yards and a touchdown last week. Top WR Marques Colston had the same exact numbers as Graham (10 targets, 5 rec, 63 yds), giving him 30 catches for 420 yards and 5 TD over his past four contests. The Saints rushing game continues to be an afterthought, as they have the fewest rushing attempts in the NFL (139, 19.9 per game) leading to the fewest rushing yards (73 YPG) and third fewest yards per carry (3.7). With last week's 51 yards on 17 carries, the Saints now have four straight games of fewer than 90 rushing yards. Defensively, New Orleans has done little right. This team has just three interceptions for the entire season and has generated just seven sacks in the past four games. The Saints rank 31st in rushing defense (170 YPG) and 30th against the pass (305 YPG).

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11/05/2012 07:43 PM
NFL Week 9 Preview: Eagles at Saints

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (3-4)

at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (2-5)


Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: New Orleans -3, Total: 51.5

Two teams desperate for a victory cap off Week 9 when the Eagles visit the Saints on Monday night.

It’s getting close to do-or-die time for both these teams, and they both looked awful last week. The Eagles let Atlanta jump all over them at home, their third SU loss in a row, and they’re rumored to be ready to turn to rookie QB Nick Foles. Starting QB Michael Vick didn’t turn it over last week, but he reportedly made multiple mistakes changing plays. Philly fired defensive coordinator Juan Castillo during its bye week but still allowed 392 yards and 30 points at home to Atlanta after making that move. New Orleans struggled in Denver, with TE Jimmy Graham clearly hampered by his ankle injury. The Saints defense is still the worst in the NFL, even with the return of LB Jonathan Vilma and DE Will Smith, as they allowed 500-plus yards each of the past two weeks and they’ve yet to hold an opponent under 400 yards.

Which team will leave New Orleans with a much-needed victory on Monday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Vick threw for just 5.5 yards per pass attempt in last week's 30-17 loss to Atlanta, but threw a touchdown with no picks, giving him 9 TD and 8 INT on the year. With the Saints defense playing so poorly against both the run and the pass, Philly can choose to attack either way. Last week, the Broncos threw for 305 yards and rushed for 225 yards against New Orleans. No NFL running back is more versatile than LeSean McCoy, who is being used more and more in the passing game recently with 14 catches in the past three weeks. He will likely improve his running over this span, where he's gained just 120 yards on 46 carries (2.6 YPC). The speed of McCoy and WR DeSean Jackson, who has had either eight or nine targets in every game this season, needs to be utilized against this horrific Saints defense. Speaking of defense, the Eagles have to find a way to put pressure on the quarterback, as they have a pitiful two sacks over their past four games. This lack of a pass rush is a big reason the defense has forced just two turnovers in the past five games.

Although Saints QB Drew Brees does have a quick release, he has been sacked 13 times already this year. That hasn't affected his production though, as Brees ranks second in the NFL with 2,310 passing yards and 20 TD. Even though Graham still hasn't fully recovered from his high ankle sprain, he was still able to catch five passes on 10 targets for 63 yards and a touchdown last week. Top WR Marques Colston had the same exact numbers as Graham (10 targets, 5 rec, 63 yds), giving him 30 catches for 420 yards and 5 TD over his past four contests. The Saints rushing game continues to be an afterthought, as they have the fewest rushing attempts in the NFL (139, 19.9 per game) leading to the fewest rushing yards (73 YPG) and third fewest yards per carry (3.7). With last week's 51 yards on 17 carries, the Saints now have four straight games of fewer than 90 rushing yards. Defensively, New Orleans has done little right. This team has just three interceptions for the entire season and has generated just seven sacks in the past four games. The Saints rank 31st in rushing defense (170 YPG) and 30th against the pass (305 YPG).

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11/05/2012 07:49 PM
Monday, November 5

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Philadelphia - 8:30 PM ET New Orleans -2.5 500

New Orleans - Under 52 500
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11/08/2012 07:12 PM
NFL odds: Week 10 opening line report

Football bettors can usually draw a line through the schedule to indicate the exact week when Super Bowl contenders pull away from the Super Bowl pretenders. And Week 10 may be that week.

There are three double-digit spreads on the board in early November, with Buffalo getting 11 points in New England, St. Louis set as an 11-point pup in San Francisco, and Pittsburgh handing lowly Kansas City 11.5 points on Monday Night Football.

“The midway part of the season is when the teams start separating,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service, The Sports Club, told Covers. “The good teams win, the bad teams lose, and that’s how the public bets them.”

Those double-digit spreads prove a certain divide between the top and bottom of the league. New England, San Francisco and Pittsburgh have a combined 16-8 record while their three opponents boast a collective 7-17 SU mark.

And while those spreads are some of the highest NFL gamblers have dealt with this season, Korner says those early lines aren’t high enough. His service sent out suggested spreads of 13 points for all three of those contests.

“Why wouldn’t you be high on these games if you were a sportsbook?,” Korner says. “Why would you want to have to cheer for the underdog come Sunday? I can explain why our lines are so high on these games. I can’t give any reasons to go lower.”

Houston Texans at Chicago Bears (-1, 41.5)

This is the main event of Week 10’s Sunday slate, pitting two 7-1 heavyweights against each other in the Windy City.

But while this Sunday Night Football slugfest has all the makings of a classic bout, Korner says it may be a bit overhyped. A win Sunday night would be a nice feather in the cap for either team, but with this being a non-conference contest between two division leaders, it probably won’t have much say in the grand scheme of things.

“It doesn’t really mean much. There isn’t anything at stake,” he says. “Although, it’s going to be a good game, it might be just that – a good game – and nothing else.”

Korner says his team of oddmakers brought spreads between a pick and Chicago -3 to the table, eventually sending out a suggested spread of Bears -2.5. Most online shops opened this game at -1 with some moving to -1.5.

San Diego Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 48)

This AFC-versus-NFC matchup is one of the toughest spreads to get a grip on during Week 10.

The Chargers snapped a three-game losing streak against the Chiefs Thursday, thanks to a 21-point fourth quarter explosion. The Bucs continued their solid play, picking up their second straight “W” in a shootout with Oakland.

The Sports Club sent out a suggested spread of Tampa Bay -1.5 and plenty of online books opened with similar odds. But instant action on the Buccaneers took the spread all the way to the key number of -3.

“San Diego is notorious for being a second-half team,” says Korner. “They start slow and then come on strong.”

“This is a pretty close game, not as high profile as some others and with two teams looking towards the playoffs,” he adds. “But it will not land on three, I can guarantee that.”
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11/08/2012 07:13 PM
NFL
Dunkel

Week 10

Indianapolis at Jacksonville
The Jaguars look to take advantage of an Indianapolis team that is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games against teams with a losing record. Jacksonville is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Jaguars favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 8

Game 105-106: Indianapolis at Jacksonville (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 124.428; Jacksonville 125.085
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 1; 45
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+3); Over


SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 11

Game 215-216: Buffalo at New England (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 128.396; New England 137.407
Dunkel Line: New England by 9; 47
Vegas Line: New England by 11; 51
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+11); Under

Game 217-218: NY Giants at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 135.580; Cincinnati 133.827
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 2; 52
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 4 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+4 1/2); Over

Game 219-220: San Diego at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 130.439; Tampa Bay 130.491
Dunkel Line: Even; 44
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+3); Under

Game 221-222: Denver at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 138.631; Carolina 131.287
Dunkel Line: Denver by 7 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Denver by 3 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-3 1/2); Over

Game 223-224: Tennessee at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 125.474; Miami 135.901
Dunkel Line: Miami by 10 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Miami by 6; 44
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-6); Under

Game 225-226: Oakland at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 125.261; Baltimore 137.763
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 12 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 7 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-7 1/2); Over

Game 227-228: Atlanta at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 138.127; New Orleans 132.938
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 5; 50
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 1; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-1); Under

Game 229-230: Detroit at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 133.551; Minnesota 127.480
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 6; 44
Vegas Line: Detroit by 1; 47
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-1); Under

Game 231-232: NY Jets at Seattle (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 128.110; Seattle 136.150
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 8; 41
Vegas Line: Seattle by 6 1/2; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-6 1/2); Over

Game 233-234: Dallas at Philadelphia (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 131.544; Philadelphia 130.339
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 1; 48
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 1; 45
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+1); Over

Game 235-236: St. Louis at San Francisco (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 127.668; San Francisco 142.278
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 14 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 11; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-11); Under

Game 237-238: Houston at Chicago (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 138.382; Chicago 136.832
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Chicago by 1 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+1 1/2); Over


MONDAY, NOVEMBER 12

Game 239-240: Kansas City at Pittsburgh (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 119.245; Pittsburgh 140.076
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 21; 39
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 11 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-11 1/2); Under
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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11/08/2012 07:17 PM
NFL
Long Sheet

Week 10

Thursday, November 8

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INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 3) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 7) - 11/8/2012, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 4-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 4-1 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, November 11

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BUFFALO (3 - 5) at NEW ENGLAND (5 - 3) - 11/11/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 149-110 ATS (+28.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (6 - 3) at CINCINNATI (3 - 5) - 11/11/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 28-52 ATS (-29.2 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 26-47 ATS (-25.7 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN DIEGO (4 - 4) at TAMPA BAY (4 - 4) - 11/11/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DENVER (5 - 3) at CAROLINA (2 - 6) - 11/11/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 42-68 ATS (-32.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
DENVER is 27-47 ATS (-24.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
CAROLINA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (3 - 6) at MIAMI (4 - 4) - 11/11/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 47-70 ATS (-30.0 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (3 - 5) at BALTIMORE (6 - 2) - 11/11/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games against AFC North division opponents since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home games against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (8 - 0) at NEW ORLEANS (3 - 5) - 11/11/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 22-45 ATS (-27.5 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (4 - 4) at MINNESOTA (5 - 4) - 11/11/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
DETROIT is 32-52 ATS (-25.2 Units) in November games since 1992.
DETROIT is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
DETROIT is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 3-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (3 - 5) at SEATTLE (5 - 4) - 11/11/2012, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (3 - 5) at PHILADELPHIA (3 - 5) - 11/11/2012, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
DALLAS is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 148-111 ATS (+25.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in home games after playing on Monday night football since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ST LOUIS (3 - 5) at SAN FRANCISCO (6 - 2) - 11/11/2012, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 123-160 ATS (-53.0 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 89-125 ATS (-48.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 34-55 ATS (-26.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 25-42 ATS (-21.2 Units) in November games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 44-68 ATS (-30.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 123-160 ATS (-53.0 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 64-90 ATS (-35.0 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (7 - 1) at CHICAGO (7 - 1) - 11/11/2012, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, November 12

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KANSAS CITY (1 - 7) at PITTSBURGH (5 - 3) - 11/12/2012, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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