11/25/2012 11:31 AM
Las Vegas Sharps Report - NFLWeek 12
Three NFL games are in the books already, but sports bettors still have a lucky 13 more to study this weekend. Byes are a thing of the past now in the 2012 campaign. We’ll have 16 games per weekend through the end of the season. Let’s see how the Sharps (professional wagerers) are handling this week’s NFL market challenges.
OAKLAND AT CINCINNATI: Oddsmakers anticipated Sharp interest in fading Oakland, a tired, bad team whose defense has faded in recent weeks. Cincinnati opened a half point above a critical number at -7.5 and 48, before getting bet up to -8 and 49.5. Support for a team and an Over is usually tied to a soft opposing defense. This game is sitting right in the basic strategy teaser window. You can put the Bengals in two-teamers and move them below both the 7 and the 3 with the six-point teaser adjustment.
PITTSBURGH AT CLEVELAND:
Sharps are anticipating a tight defensive struggle here. Charlie Batch will replace the injured Byron Leftwich (who replaced the injured Ben Roethlisberger). Sharps look to prefer Batch to Leftwich. An opener of pick-em has been bet up to Pittsburgh -1 or -1.5. The opening total of 36 has been bet down to 34.5 though. That combo represents support for Pittsburgh’s defense against young Brandon Weeden on a field that’s seen low scoring games all season. If the line moves up to Pittsburgh -1.5 and -2 everywhere, that would put the home underdog Browns in the teaser window. You can bet them with a six point adjustment moving up past the 3 and the 7.
BUFFALO AT INDIANAPOLIS:
Not much Sharp interest in this game. Indy has been getting more media respect. But, Buffalo played well vs. Miami last week, while Indy’s soft defense makes it hard to trust them as a favorite. This game opened at Indy -3 on its home field and stayed there. The total has been bet down from 52 to 51.
DENVER AT KANSAS CITY:
Denver opened at -10, and was bet up to -10.5 even though there are old school Sharps who automatically bet double digit underdogs. The Broncos continue to get respect from Sharps under Peyton Manning. It’s telling that the Chiefs didn’t drop back to +10 after the move. Some traditionalists will still support the dog. Many Sharps believe Kansas City has its eye on the #1 draft pick.
TENNESSEE AT JACKSONVILLE: Tennessee drew support here at the opening line of -3. We’re now seeing -3.5 in many places. It takes a lot of money to move off a key number…though less in a game that the public is likely to ignore. Squares won’t have any interest here. Sharps believe Chad Henne is due for a letdown performance after his big game in Houston last week. That plus Jacksonville’s perceived lack of home field advantage is in play here. The Jags have been awful at home all season.
MINNESOTA AT CHICAGO:
No line at press time because Jay Cutler’s status is still up in the air. We can assure you that the Sharps who pounded Chicago last week on game day when Alex Smith was a late scratch for San Francisco have little interest in betting on Jason Campbell again if he gets the call for the Bears. The totals guys are looking Under if Campbell does get the start.
ATLANTA AT TAMPA BAY:
More interest here on the total than the team side. An opener of 48 has been bet up to 49.5 and 50. Tampa Bay’s defense has struggled often in recent action, but their offense continues to surprise. Atlanta opened at pick-em. We’re seeing pick-em or Atlanta -1 in most places. Sharps who were riding the Bucs early largely believe oddsmakers have now adjusted.
SEATTLE AT MIAMI:
Sharps respect Seattle, but they’re not comfortable laying points on the road when teams from the West play early games in the East. This line opened at Seattle -3 and stayed there. Sharps will be looking to bet Seattle in value spots down the stretch when they’re back home again.
BALTIMORE AT SAN DIEGO:
Baltimore opened at -2, but has been bet down to -1 or -1.5. Sharps see this as a tough schedule spot for the Ravens…who had to play a brutal rivalry game last Sunday Night in Pittsburgh, THEN travel to the West Coast. Sharps were looking at San Diego in two-team teasers too. We expect many stores to drop this game to one to keep it out of the teaser window on game day.
SAN FRANCISCO AT NEW ORLEANS: Support has come in on New Orleans, who opened at +2 but is down to +1. Our sources say that’s mostly because of improved play from the Saints in recent weeks, rather than a vote against new Niners quarterback Colin Kaepernick. Sharps saw a lot of Kaepernick when he played for Nevada in college. Those who were skeptical of him as a starter last week regretted it. Though, this is his first road start, and some Sharps do consider that a meaningful angle to attack.
ST. LOUIS AT ARIZONA:
Arizona opened at -3 despite their in flux quarterback situation. Sharps bet St. Louis fairly heavily, driving the line down to Rams +2 or +1.5. Sharps have had mixed success with St. Louis this season. Many lost on them vs. the Jets last week, but have won at other times. The Rams will be in the teaser window as a dog if the price doesn’t move any more.
GREEN BAY AT NY GIANTS:
The Giants opened at -2.5, as books anticipated Green Bay interest. Instead, Sharps hit the home team off a bye week (something they’ve been doing a lot of in recent weeks), driving the number up to a field goal. The total is up two points from 49 to 51…which tells you the weather is probably going to be nice in this much anticipated Sunday Night affair. Late November just isn’t what it used to be for guys who liked betting Unders in cold weather cities.
CAROLINA AT PHILADELPHIA:
Nick Foles has struggled badly in place of Michael Vick. So, Carolina opened as a road favorite here despite their poor record. Sharps bet the Panthers! An opener of -1 is up to -2.5. The places that moved to Carolina -3 did see Eagles money come in at that point. Philadelphia will be in the teaser window if the line stays below three. Looks like there will be a lot of teaser options for round robins this weekend. Of course, many Sharps start off a NEW week with Monday Night teasers that they leave open-ended until the following week’s likes come out. It will be interesting to see how the public bets this game on Monday. Squares love betting Monday Night football, but they’ll have to decide which slumping squad they’ll want to support.
We may have another report on Monday for that Carolina/Philadelphia game if game-day news warrants it. That happened last week with Chicago-San Francisco. For now, Sharps prefer Carolina from -1 to -2, but Philadelphia if they see a +3 because of the percentages involved at that key number.
In the meantime, have a great weekend
Good Luck Den!
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: