11/18/2012 12:05 PM
Eagles (3-6) @ Redskins (3-6)-- Free-falling Iggles likely to give rookie Foles his first NFL start with Vick having concussion; they've lost last five games, giving up 30.8 ppg in last four- they've changed DC's, hasn't helped. Redskins lost last three games, scoring 12-13 points in last two games (no takeaways, after 16 in first seven games); they're 1-3 at home, but are 0-4 this year when scoring less than 24 points. Philly won five of last six series games, taking last three by 31-7-24 points; Eagles won five of last six visits here, winning last three by 10-31-7. Home teams are 0-5 vs spread in NFC East divisional games. Three of last four Philly games, six of nine Redskin games went over the total. Washington is 0-4 vs spread in last four post-bye games.
Packers (6-3) @ Lions (4-5)-- Green Bay won 12 of last 13 series games, taking five of last six visits here (Rodgers didn't play in loss) with all five wins by 7+ points. Three of last four series games were decided by 4 or less points. Since '04, Green Bay is 8-4 as a road favorite in divisional games. Packers won five of last six (6-0 vs spread) in last six post-bye games; they're 2-2 away from home- this is their 4th game in dome this year. Detroit is 2-1 at home, with only loss 20-13 to Vikings (Minnesota didn't have offensive TD in game, but had PR/KR for TDs). Underdogs covered four of first five NFC North divisional games. Five of last six Packer games, four of last five Detroit games went over total.
Cardinals (4-5) @ Falcons (8-1)-- Since 2008, Atlanta is 17-3-1 vs spread when they lost previous week; they lost for first time last week in Superdome, are 4-0 at home this year, 2-2 as home favorites, winning by 6-2-3-6 points, so hard to lay double digits with them. Home side won five in row and nine of last 10 series games, with average total in last three, 53.0; Cardinals lost last five visits here, with three losses by 23+ points- they lost 41-7 in last visit here, two years ago. Redbirds lost last five games after 4-0 start, scoring 10.6 ppg; they won all four times they scored 20+ points. Arizona is 1-5 vs spread in last six post-bye games. NFC South teams are 8-6 vs spread in non-divisional games, 6-6 at home; NFC West underdogs are 10-6, 6-5 on foreign soil.
Buccaneers (5-4) @ Panthers (2-7)-- Tampa Bay is finding ways to win; in last week's win over San Diego, they had blocked punt for TD and defensive TD. In their last three games, Bucs scored 36-42-34 points; they've got 20 TDs on last 54 drives in last five games, and are 4-0 vs spread on road. Carolina looked like beaten team when they got smoked by Denver last week; they lost 16-10 (-2.5) in season opener down in Tampa; Panthers ran ball only 13 times for 10 yards- five of their seven losses are by 6 or less points. Underdogs covered four of first five NFC South divisional games. Last six Tampa Bay games went over total; three of Panthers' last four home games stayed under.
Browns (2-7) @ Cowboys (4-5)-- Sandwich game (Eagles/Redskins) for Dallas team that kept season alive with win in Philly; they're 1-2 at home this year, 0-3 vs spread, with only win 16-10 (-7.5) over Bucs. Cleveland is 1-3 as a road dog, losing all four games by 7-7-14-4 points- they're 5-8-2 in last 15 games against NFC teams. Dallas covered five of last six vs AFC opponents. Favorites are 10-1 vs spread in Cleveland's post-bye games, with Browns 0-6 as post-bye dogs; they've lost both meetings with Cowboys, 28-10/19-12. NFC East favorites are 3-12 vs spread in non-divisional games, 2-7 at home; AFC North road underdogs are 3-4. Five of last seven Cleveland games stayed under the total.
Jets (3-6) @ Rams (3-5-1)-- Mark Sanchez faced his old college coach last week in Seattle; he faces his old offensive coordinator here, as Schottenheimer landed in St Louis after Jets ran him out of town. Two teams with similar records going in opposite directions; Jets lost last three games, last two by 58-16 combined score. Only Jet TD last week was scored by defense. Rams are 0-3-1 in last four games, but tied 49ers at Candlestick last week, showing improvement. St Louis is 3-1 at home, with only loss to Packers- they're favored for first time this year, but are 3-0 in games where the spread was 3 or less points. NFC West non-divisional home favorites are 4-3; AFC East road underdogs are 4-5.
Colts (6-3) @ Patriots (6-3)-- Who thought this would be a big game this year? New England is 1-3 as home favorite, with wins by 10-3-6 points, and a loss to Arizona- they allowed 20+ points in seven of last eight games. Colts are playing inspired ball with HC Pagano ill; they've won/covered last four games, are 4-2 as underdogs, 1-2 on road, but two of their three losses were by 20-26 points (also lost to Jags by 5). Patriots won last two series games (31-28/31-24) after losing five of previous six to Indy; last seven series games were decided by 7 or less points. AFC East favorites are 6-5 vs spread, 3-3 at home; AFC South dogs are 10-8, 5-4 on foreign soil. Last seven Patriot games went over total; under is 3-0-1 in Colts' last four.
Jaguars (1-8) @ Texans (8-1)-- Trap game for Houston, after national TV win vs Bears, before Thanksgiving Day in Detroit; they hammered Jags 27-7 (-7.5) back in Week 2, outrushing hosts 216-65, holding Jax to 117 total yards, seven 3/outs in 11 drives. Texans won last four series games by average score of 26-13; they are 4-1 as home favorites, winning home games by 20-24-30-12 points. Jaguars lost last six games (2-4 vs spread); they're 4-0 as road underdogs, losing away games by 3-3-9 points, with win at Indy- they had three extra days to prepare. Under is 5-3 in Jags' last eight games. Home teams are 1-4 vs spread in AFC South divisional tilts; home favorites are 7-16-1 league-wide in divisional games.
Bengals (4-5) @ Chiefs (1-8)-- First road game in five weeks for Bengals, who forced four turnovers in home upset of Giants last week; Cincy is 4-0 when it scores 27+ points, 0-5 when it doesn't- they're 2-2 on road, with dog covering last three. Chiefs allowed 24+ points in seven of nine games, losing 16-13 in slop in OT at Pittsburgh Monday- they have three TDs on last 55 drives, but finally had a lead on Monday. Home side won nine of last 11 series games, with Bengals losing six of last eight visits to Arrowhead. AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 5-9 vs spread, 2-2 at home; AFC North favorites are 3-9, 0-4 on road. Three of four Bengal road games, three of last four KC games went over total.
Saints (4-5) @ Raiders (3-6)-- Oakland gave up 42-55 points last two games (12 TDs allowed on last 27 drives) now explosive Saints come to town; if Freeman, Flacco averaged 7.6/10.0 ypa, what will Brees get? Oakland is 2-2 at home, with last three of those going over total; Raiders allowed average of 29.5 ppg at home this year. Saints won four of last five games; they're 1-3 on road, with only win by 7 at Tampa Bay- they covered last three tries as a favorite. Saints won five of last seven series games, winning last two played here, 13-10/31-26. NFC South favorites are 8-6 vs spread, 2-0 on road; AFC West underdogs are 5-9, 2-2 at home. Three of Saints' four road games went over total.
Chargers (4-5) @ Broncos (6-3)-- San Diego lost four of last five games, allowing four TDs on defense/special teams last four games; Denver won/covered four in row, scoring five TDs on defense/special teams. Broncos (+1.5) won 35-24 first time teams met in Week 6, forcing six SD turnovers (+3) in game Bolts led 24-0 at half. Denver scored 31+ points in all six wins; 21-25-21 in losses. San Diego allowed 7-13-34 points in last three games, but only one of three Buc TDs was allowed by defense. This is Norv Turner's last stand as Charger coach. Favorites are 4-2 in AFC West divisional games, 2-2 at home. Five of last six San Diego games, four of last five Bronco games went over the total.
Ravens (7-2) @ Steelers (6-3)-- Health of Roethlisberger's shoulder big concern for Steelers, who won last four games, but were lucky to do so with Leftwich under center in Heinz quagmire Monday night. Steelers are 4-0 at home, allowing average of 12.3 ppg; in last three games overall, they've allowed three TDs on 31 drives. Ravens are +9 in turnovers; they're 2-2 on road, woth wins over Browns, Chiefs, maybe two worst teams in NFL. Ravens scored TD on defense/special teams in four of seven wins. Baltimore swept series 35-7/23-20 LY; they've won two of last three visits here, are 4-3 in last seven series games overall. Last four Pittsburgh games stayed under total; three of last four Raven games went over.
Bears (7-2) @ 49ers (6-2-1)-- Both starting QB's got concussions last week; not sure if either will play, but both teams have decent backups. Home teams won last 10 series games; Bears lost last seven visits here, with last win in '85, season Chicago won only Super Bowl. Bears' only losses came in night games; they are 3-1 on road, with all three wins by 16+ points. Chicago was +16 in turnovers in first half of season, but was -2 in loss Sunday; they;ve turned ball over 8 times in last three games, as sputtering offense was hidden by aggressive defense. 49ers are 2-3 as home favorites, losing to Giants, tying Rams. NFC West non-divisional home favorites are 4-3 vs spread; NFC North road underdogs are 1-3.
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: