cnotes Posts:26577 Followers:33
11/03/2012 08:11 PM

Las Vegas Money Moves

November 2, 2012

The Seahawks have been impressive all season, despite being on a two-game losing streak. There’s no shame in losing at San Francisco or Detroit in two very close games. Bettors often shy away from the Seahawks when they’re on the road, but at when they play at home, that is when they like to jump all in.

It’s plain and simple, the Seahawks have one of the better home-field advantages in football. They’ve covered all three of their home games this season, and they were games against top-notch opponents. Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Tony Romo all took their teams into Seattle this season and all of them took the long flight home after the game as losers.

This week, Christian Ponder and the Vikings will visit the Emerald City with hopes that they can forget the Thursday night beating they took on national TV from the Buccaneers. After starting the season with a surprising 4-1 record, they have now fallen in two of their past three. Most of the blame can be placed upon Ponder himself and the coaching staff that doesn’t allow him to do more. When is the last time you saw Ponder throw more than 20 yards downfield?

It kind of makes it easier for opposing defenses to defend against the Vikings top weapon -- Adrian Peterson -- knowing that the coach won’t let the quarterback beat you deep.

So at this juncture of the season, how can a wager on the Vikings be justified? You can just go with the flow of the season trend by taking the points and hope that the 61 percent rate keeps hitting, but even then, you want to feel good about a wager when putting money down and there just doesn’t seem to be anything there based on their current form and Seattle’s dominance at home.

So far this week, Vikings money has been hard to find. The LVH Super Book opened the Seahawks as 3 ½-point favorites on Sunday night and within 90 minutes, the game had been bet up to 4 ½. On Monday, the game went to -5, until someone finally bit on the Vikings Thursday and pushed the number back to 4 ½. As of Friday, only the South Point had a five on the board in town.

Parlay action has been pretty one-sided as well. The top public parlay combinations this week, along with the Seahawks, are the Broncos (-3 ½), Packers (-10 ½), Texans (-10), and Lions (-4).

Peyton Manning is definitely back to looking like his former self after missing an entire season. The rough part of their schedule is over and Denver managed to come out a respectable 4-3 with losses coming at the hands of the Texans, Patriots, and Falcons -- teams we expect to not only make the playoffs, but do well. This week they get a Bengals squad on a three-game losing streak.

-- The Broncos opened as three-point road favorites at Cincinnati and have been bet up to -3 ½.

-- The Packers opened as 9 ½-point home favorites against the Cardinals and were bet up to as high as 11 before settling at 10 ½. After starting the year off with four straight wins, the Cardinals have lost their past four games, and have looked ugly do it. They can‘t run the ball and they can‘t throw the ball. The only thing you have on your side with the Cardinals is that they play good defense and have a weapon on special teams. And you also have the Packers that can seem bored at times, like last week when they went through the motions against a terrible Jacksonville squad. The Packers have only covered three of their eight games this season.

-- The Lions get a chance to take a whack at the Jaguars this week. While the Packers were bored, the Lions should be thrilled. They come off their best offensive performance of the season where Matt Stafford finally found some rhythm and play a Jags squad that has been beat by 75 points combined in three homes games, obviously, not covering any of them. The Lions opened as 4 ½-point favorites, but were bet against by large money to -4. The public doesn’t care what the line is, they just keep betting Detroit.

-- The Texans opened as 10 ½-point favorites against the Bills. Large money took the points and the Texans now sit at -10. The 61% value might be with the dog here, but the public wants nothing to do with the Bills.

-- The Raiders opened as three-point favorites over the red-hot Buccaneers, and the number didn’t last long. By Tuesday morning, it was down to -1, and has since settled at 1 ½. The Bucs have averaged 31 points a game their past three with Josh Freeman looking like a Pro Bowler throwing for almost 1,000 yards and nine touchdowns over that span. But the Raiders have been playing well, too. Since getting blasted by the Broncos, the Raiders lost a heartbreaker at Atlanta, and then beat the Jaguars and Chiefs. The side bettors are looking at is the OVER, which opened 45 points and has moved to 46 ½.

-- The Giants opened as 3 ½-point home favorites against the Steelers, but the first large money seen was on Pittsburgh dropping the number to three. The Steelers are no bargain on the road, covering only once in their past eight road games, but the Giants don’t seem to have the same appeal at home as they do on the road, covering only seven times as a home favorite in their past 25.

-- The Falcons opened as 4 ½-point home favorites against the Cowboys, and surpringly, Dallas money has pushed the number to four.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:26577 Followers:33
11/03/2012 08:16 PM

Sunday, Nov. 4 - All games to start at 1:00 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Cincy "over" 14-9-1 since LY and "over' 10-7-1 last 18 at Paul Brown Stadium. Bengals no covers last 3 TY, now 1-6-1 last 8 at home. Cincy also 1-6-1 last 8 as dog. "Over" and Broncos, based on "totals" and team trends.

Whisenhunt "under" 7-1 TY, "under' 12-4-1 last 17, and "under" 9-2 last 11 on road. "Under," based on Cards "totals" trends.

Dolphins 8-1 vs. line last 9 on road, although Colts 3-1 vs. points at home TY with Andrew Luck. Dolphins "under" 25-14 since 2010. Dolphins and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

"Unders" 6-1 last seven in this series and Browns "under" 19-9 last 27 since late 2010. Ravens have won last 9 SU in series but also no covers last four TY, including 23-16 win but no cover vs. Brownies at M&T Bank Stadium Sept. 27. "Under" and slight to Browns, based on "totals" and team trends.

Texans 5-2 vs. line TY, 19-7 last 26 on board since late in 2010 campaign. Bills "over" 16-8 since late in 2010 season. Texans and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Skins "over" 6-1 last 7 at home. Cam yet to cover back-to-back weeks TY. "Over" and slight to Skins, based on team and "totals" trends.

Lions "over" 27-14-2 since late 2009 and have been "over" 12-2-2 last 16 away from Ford Field. Road team is 7-0 vs. line in Jag games TY (JV 0-3 at home), and Jags 3-7 vs. line at home since LY. Lions and "over," based on Lions trends.

Bears 9-2 vs. line in last 11 games started by Jay Cutler, returning back to old college hometown. Titans also "over" 7-3 last 9 since late LY. "Over" and slight to Bears, based on "totals" and team trends.

Sunday, Nov. 4 - All games to start at 4:05 and 4:25 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Pete Carroll "under" 6-2 TY after "over" 22-11-1 in Carroll's first two seasons. Vikes "under" 6-2 last 8 since late LY. Seahawks 3-0 vs. line at home TY and have covered last 6 and 9 of 11 at CenturyLink Field since LY. Seahawks and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

Bucs 5-2 vs. line for Schiano. Bucs "over" 4-3 TY and "over" 8-4 last 12, Raiders "over" 6-1 last 7 at home. "Over" and Bucs, based on "totals" and team trends.

Steelers finally covered one on the road at Cincy but still only 3-11 last 14 vs. number away from home. Steel "over" 4-1 last 5 away since late LY. Tomlin also 1-5 vs. line last 6 as dog. G-Men 11-3 last 13 on board since late LY. "Over" and Giants, based on team and "totals" trends.

Sunday, Nov. 4 - NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Dallas 8-17-1 last 26 on board since late 2010. Falcons "under" 12-7 last 19 since mid 2011. "Under" and Falcons, based on "totals" and team trends.

Monday, Nov. 5 - ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Andy Reid only 1-6 vs. line TY, Saints 10-2 vs. line at home since 2010 (1-2 TY). Saints, based on Saints

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:26577 Followers:33
11/03/2012 08:18 PM

NFL odds: Week 9 opening line report

We usually save our “Lines that make you go hmmm…” for later in the week, but Week 9’s Monday night matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints has everyone – from books to bettors – scratching their heads.

“This is a really tough game,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, told Covers. “The initial perception is that this is going to be a really good game, exciting with lots of scoring. But, in reality, it’s looking like a 17-14 game.”

Korner’s crew of oddsmakers sent out a suggested spread of Saints -5. Online books opened the game as low as New Orleans -3. Regardless of the opening line, it’s safe to say Week 9’s marquee Monday Night Football game features the two most disappointing teams of the 2012 season.

New Orleans, hindered by all the offseason drama of Bountygate, is 2-5 SU (3-4 ATS) and coming off an embarrassing 34-14 loss to the Denver Broncos Sunday night. The Eagles are also limping into Week 9, falling to 3-4 SU (1-5-1 ATS) after a 30-17 flogging by the undefeated Atlanta Falcons.

“I’m lost on this game,” laughs Korner. “One team will have to win, in that case we’ll go with the home team.”

Korner was baffled by the betting patterns for the Falcons-Eagles game, which saw Philadelphia open as the favorite and draw action throughout the course of the week. He’s even more surprised that many online books have opened this week’s spread as low as a field goal.

Korner admits New Orleans hasn’t performed much better, but the Saints are far from the hot mess that has become the Eagles’ season.

Quarterback Michael Vick continues to limit the offense, which has scored just 17.1 points per game (30th in the NFL). Rumors are picking up momentum that head coach Andy Reid – whose job is on the chopping block - may look to backup QB Nick Foles in an attempt to save the season and his job.

“I think Reid’s time is coming to an end,” says Korner.

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-9.5, 42.5)

By now, we’ve all read the cringe-inducing stats regarding the Chiefs and their futility this season and you could make an argument that Kansas City is the worst NFL team we’ve seen in some time.

The odds for Thursday night’s meeting between the Chiefs and Chargers are teetering on double digits at some markets while others have this standalone game as low as Bolts -8.

Korner says two of his oddsmakers brought spreads of 7.5 to the table while others had it as high as 10. He’s suggesting keeping this number as high as possible and sent out San Diego -9.5, even suggesting a move to -10 or above.

“You don’t want to be cheering for Kansas City come Thursday night,” he says.

Korner is throwing out the Chargers’ 7-6 loss to the Cleveland Browns Sunday, believing the bad weather had a lot to do with San Diego’s lack of offense. Quarterback Philip Rivers went just 18 for 34 and finished with 154 yards and no touchdowns.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants (-3.5, 47)

The Giants escaped a second-half collapse versus the Dallas Cowboys Sunday to improve to 6-2 and now return home to host the Pittsburgh Steelers, who beat up on New York’s NFC East rivals, the Washington Redskins, in Week 8.

Korner sent out the G-Men at -5 while online books are offering the defending champs as low as a field goal. He says people are thinking about New York’s dreadful second half in Dallas and forgetting the one important thing.

“New York won that game,” says Korner. “The Giants just plain win. For them to be 3-point favorites in Dallas, it should warrant them being bigger than 3-point favorites at home to a Pittsburgh team that isn’t the same ole Pittsburgh team.”

“It’s a really good game, and the Giants seem to always win these big games”

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-5, 47.5)

Korner believes football bettors are getting a deal on the Falcons as 5-point favorites, after sending out the lone unblemished squad as touchdown chalk at home on Sunday night.

“This is cheap,” says Korner. “(Atlanta) has firepower, it’s explosive, it’s playing good defense. If they can handle Philly on the road, they can surely handle Dallas at home.”

Korner says a lot of the parlay money for Sunday will be tied into this Sunday nighter, making it one of the deciding games of the Week 9 slate.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:26577 Followers:33
11/03/2012 08:41 PM

NFL

Dunkel

Week 9

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 4

Game 415-416: Denver at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 138.631; Cincinnati 129.723
Dunkel Line: Denver by 9; 51
Vegas Line: Denver by 3 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-3 1/2); Over

Game 417-418: Arizona at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 128.916; Green Bay 137.878
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 9; 49
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 11; 44
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+11); Over

Game 419-420: Miami at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 130.178; Indianapolis 131.441
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 1 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: Miami by 2 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+2 1/2); Under

Game 421-422: Baltimore at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 135.684; Cleveland 129.428
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 6 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-3 1/2); Under

Game 423-424: Buffalo at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 125.396; Houston 137.930
Dunkel Line: Houston by 12 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Houston by 10; 47
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-10); Over

Game 425-426: Carolina at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 130.186; Washington 131.606
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Washington by 3 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3 1/2); Under

Game 427-428: Detroit at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 128.145; Jacksonville 127.085
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 47
Vegas Line: Detroit by 3 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+3 1/2); Over

Game 429-430: Chicago at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 132.832; Tennessee 131.474
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 1 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+3 1/2); Under

Game 431-432: Minnesota at Seattle (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 131.755; Seattle 134.770
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 3; 42
Vegas Line: Seattle by 5; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+5); Over

Game 433-434: Tampa Bay at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 135.223; Oakland 128.261
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 7; 49
Vegas Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+1 1/2); Over

Game 435-436: Pittsburgh at NY Giants (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 134.073; NY Giants 143.582
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 9 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-3); Under

Game 437-438: Dallas at Atlanta (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 131.415; Atlanta 139.787
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 8 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 4; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4); Under


MONDAY, NOVEMBER 5

Game 439-440: Philadelphia at New Orleans (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 133.836; New Orleans 132.938
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 56
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3 1/2); Over

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:26577 Followers:33
11/03/2012 08:42 PM

Sunday, November 4

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DENVER (4 - 3) at CINCINNATI (3 - 4) - 11/4/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 41-68 ATS (-33.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 106-142 ATS (-50.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 1-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (4 - 4) at GREEN BAY (5 - 3) - 11/4/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 145-107 ATS (+27.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (4 - 3) at INDIANAPOLIS (4 - 3) - 11/4/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BALTIMORE (5 - 2) at CLEVELAND (2 - 6) - 11/4/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 3-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 5-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (3 - 4) at HOUSTON (6 - 1) - 11/4/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (1 - 6) at WASHINGTON (3 - 5) - 11/4/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 62-37 ATS (+21.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 47-80 ATS (-41.0 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 65-91 ATS (-35.1 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 65-91 ATS (-35.1 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 65-91 ATS (-35.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 16-36 ATS (-23.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (3 - 4) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 6) - 11/4/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 20-39 ATS (-22.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 31-52 ATS (-26.2 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CHICAGO (6 - 1) at TENNESSEE (3 - 5) - 11/4/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 39-18 ATS (+19.2 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (5 - 3) at SEATTLE (4 - 4) - 11/4/2012, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (3 - 4) at OAKLAND (3 - 4) - 11/4/2012, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 36-66 ATS (-36.6 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 28-62 ATS (-40.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PITTSBURGH (4 - 3) at NY GIANTS (6 - 2) - 11/4/2012, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 49-29 ATS (+17.1 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 55-33 ATS (+18.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 28-51 ATS (-28.1 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (3 - 4) at ATLANTA (7 - 0) - 11/4/2012, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 8-23 ATS (-17.3 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, November 5

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PHILADELPHIA (3 - 4) at NEW ORLEANS (2 - 5) - 11/5/2012, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 148-110 ATS (+27.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games when playing on Monday night since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-40 ATS (-25.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:26577 Followers:33
11/03/2012 08:44 PM

Sunday, November 4, 2012

Denver at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Denver: 13-3 ATS after gaining 500+ total yards
Cincinnati: 14-4 Over vs. conference opponents

Arizona at Green Bay, 1:00 ET
Arizona: 9-2 Under in road games
Green Bay: 8-2 ATS off a non-conference game

Miami at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Miami: 15-5 ATS in road games
Indianapolis: 10-22 ATS at home off ATS losses in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games

Baltimore at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 8-1 Over off a loss
Cleveland: 0-6 ATS after winning 2 of their last 3 games

Buffalo at Houston, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 12-3 Over as an underdog
Houston: 15-4 ATS vs. conference opponents

Carolina at Washington, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 9-1 Over as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
Washington: 1-5 ATS as a favorite

Detroit at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 4-17 ATS as a road favorite
Jacksonville: 7-0 ATS after losing 4 of their last 5 games

Chicago at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Chicago: 28-13 Under away vs. non-conference opponents
Tennessee: 39-18 ATS vs. non-conference opponents

Minnesota at Seattle, 4:05 ET
Minnesota: 23-10 Over away off BB home games
Seattle: 9-2 ATS in home games

Tampa Bay at Oakland, 4:05 ET
Tampa Bay: 26-12 ATS after scoring 30+ points
Oakland: 11-24 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less

Pittsburgh at NY Giants, 4:25 ET
Pittsburgh: 1-8 ATS off a home win
NY Giants: 12-4 ATS off BB wins by 6 points or less

(TC) Dallas at Atlanta, 8:30 ET NBC
Dallas: 6-0 Over after losing 4 or 5 of their last 6 games
Atlanta: 3-13 ATS at home off 3+ wins


Monday, November 5, 2012

(TC) Philadelphia at New Orleans, 8:40 ET ESPN
Philadelphia: 13-4 ATS away on Monday Night Football
New Orleans: 13-5 Over vs. conference opponents

(TC) = Time Change

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:26577 Followers:33
11/03/2012 08:49 PM

Sunday, November 4

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Arizona is 7-14-1 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Green Bay's last 10 games at home
Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
DENVER vs. CINCINNATI
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 10 games at home
Cincinnati is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games when playing Denver

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. HOUSTON
Buffalo is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Buffalo is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. CLEVELAND
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cleveland's last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing Baltimore

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. INDIANAPOLIS
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Miami's last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing Miami

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. TENNESSEE
Chicago is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Tennessee
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 7 games

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
Washington is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Carolina

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. JACKSONVILLE
Detroit is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games
Detroit is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games
Jacksonville is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home

4:05 PM
MINNESOTA vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games
Minnesota is 5-9-2 ATS in its last 16 games
Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Seattle's last 17 games at home

4:05 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. OAKLAND
Tampa Bay is 3-14 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
Oakland is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 7 games at home

4:15 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. NY GIANTS
Pittsburgh is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games
Pittsburgh is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 7 games at home
NY Giants are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games at home

8:20 PM
DALLAS vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 10 games
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Dallas


Monday, November 5

8:30 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 8 games when playing at home against Philadelphia


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:26577 Followers:33
11/03/2012 08:54 PM

NFL

Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 9


Broncos (4-3) @ Bengals (3-4)—Denver survived gauntlet of early season primetime games vs quality foes, now head into softer part of schedule after hanging 35/34 points on Chargers/Saints; they’ve won 12 of last 14 games vs Bengals, winning last three, all by 5 or less points. Broncos scored 14 TD’s on last 40 drives; they’re 0-2 on artificial turf, losing to Falcons/Patriots, maybe two best teams in NFL. Bengals lost last three games before their bye, turning ball over eight times (-3); they’re 9-5-1 as home dogs since ’08, but covered just one of last four in that role- they’ve lost two of three at home this year, with only win against the Browns. Cincy is 3-8-1 vs spread in last 12 games as a post-bye underdog (4-11-1 SU in last 16 post-bye games). AFC North teams are 6-13 vs spread in non-divisional games, 2-1 as home dogs. Three of last four Bengal games stayed under the total.

Cardinals (4-4) @ Packers (5-3)—Arizona is only third team to be 4-4 after starting season 4-0; they head east on short week after dismal showing in 24-3 home loss to 49ers Monday night. Redbirds lost last eight games in Dairyland, with six of eight losses by 17+ points, but they did win last series meeting, 51-45 in OT in ’09 playoffs, when Warner was their QB-- their last win in Green Bay was in 1947. Packers are 4-1-1 vs spread in last six games as a pre-bye favorite; they sleepwalked past Jaguars last week 24-15, getting outgained by 103 yards- they’re 1-3 as home favorites this year, after being 15-7 from 2009-11. Cardinals scored 91 points in first four games, 36 points in last four (3 TD’s on last 48 drives); opponents are taking Fitzgerald away, and no other viable options have emerged. NFC North faves are 7-10 vs spread in non-divisional games. Seven of eight Arizona games stayed under total.

Dolphins (4-3) @ Colts (4-3)—Back in May, no one figured winner of this game would hit halfway mark over .500. Miami won last its three games, allowing 12 ppg (3 TD’s on last 35 drives); they allowed 30-23-24 points in losses, 14 or less in wins- they’re 2-2 on road, and have been killing teams on special teams, with blocked punt/onside kick at Jets last week, just in first quarter. Colts won three of last four games; five of their last six were decided by 5 or less points, or in OT. Indy is 3-1 at home, with only loss when Jaguars hit 75-yard TD pass in last 2:00 after Colts had taken lead. Indy won last three series games, by 6-5-4 points, but that was in Manning era. Miami won five of last six visits here, mostly back when teams were AFC East rivals. AFC South home teams are 7-3 vs spread in non-divisional games. Last three Miami games and four of last six Colt contests stayed under total.

Ravens (4-3) @ Browns (2-6)—Baltimore lost 43-13 at Houston in last pre-bye game, outgained 420-176; they’re 1-2 on road, with only win 9-6 over woeful Chiefs, but Ravens won/covered nine of last ten post-bye games, so interesting to see if week off helped at all. Browns (+2.5) snuck past Chargers 7-6 in rain last week, their second straight home win; they’re 7-20 vs hated Ravens (former Browns), losing last nine series games, with six of nine by 10+ points. Ravens won first meeting 23-16 (-11), a Week 4 Thursday game, when Baltimore outrushed Browns 101-43 and threw ball for 337 yards, but now with Webb/ Lewis out for year, who steps up for their defense? Since ’08, Baltimore is 5-2 vs spread as an AFC North road favorite; Browns are 8-5 in last 13 games as divisional home underdog. Home teams covered three of first four AFC North divisional games. Five of seven Baltimore games went over the total.

Bills (3-4) @ Texans (6-1)—Mario Williams returns to Houston as expensive flop for Buffalo, which allowed 35+ points in all four losses, including last game before bye, when Titans scored on last play to win weird 35-34 game. Bills allowed 17 or less points in its three wins, but Texans are 3-1 as home favorites this year, scoring 33.8 ppg at Reliant (11 TDs on 43 home drives)- they’re 18-12-3 in last 33 games as home faves. Buffalo is scoring 18.5 ppg on road, 32.3 at home; they’re 3-6-1 in last 10 games as road dogs- their last two games overall were decided by total of four points. Bills are 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine games as post-bye underdog (5-2 last seven SU), Texans are 3-1 as post-bye favorites, but lost five of last seven post-bye games SU. AFC East underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in non-divisional games. Four of last five Houston games, five of seven Buffalo games went over total.

Panthers (1-6) @ Redskins (3-5)—This year’s most exciting rookie QB meets LY’s most exciting rookie QB; both teams are struggling, with Carolina losing last five games (last four by 5 or less points), Redskins losing three of last four. Panthers outgained Chicago 416-210 last week, but were poor in red zone (one TD, three FGs on four trips) and had 11-yard disadvantage in field position. Washington hasn’t held an opponent under 22 points this year- they’re 1-2 at home, with average total in three games, 58.0. Home side won last seven series games, with Carolina winning last two (20-17/33-20) after losing seven of first eight series meetings. Panthers are 0-5 at Washington, but all five losses were by 4 or less points. Five of last six series totals were 37 or less. NFC East favorites are 3-9 vs spread in non-divisional games. NFC South road underdogs are 7-1. Six of eight Washington games went over the total.

Lions (3-4) @ Jaguars (1-6)—Detroit’s three wins this year are all by 4 or less points, with winning points all coming in last 0:30 or in OT; Lions are 1-3 on road, with underdog covering three of four games. Over last decade, Detroit is 1-5-2 vs spread as a road favorite (0-1 in ’12), but they’re 5-2-2 vs spread in last nine games vas AFC teams. Jags have been awful at home, losing by 20-17-38 points (average score, 32-7); they’re 3-8 in last 11 games as home underdog- they’ve scored five offensive TDs in last four games, with two of five drives on short field (16-13 yards). Jax ran ball for just 61.3 ypg in last four games. Home side lost three of four series games, only one of which was decided by less than 15 points; Detroit lost both visits here, 37-22 in ’98, 23-17ot in ’04. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 7-10 against the spread. Four of last six Jaguar games stayed under total.

Bears (6-1) @ Titans (3-5)— Cutler played college ball in Nashville (Vanderbilt) so this is homecoming for him, after Chicago escaped with 23-22 home win over gritty Panthers last week (Bears were outgained 416-210); Bears have 23 takeaways in seven games (+12), and scored six TD’s on defense/special teams in last five games, hiding an offense that struggled in two games since bye (3.4/3.9 ypa last two games, allowing 11 sacks). Last three Titan games were decided by 3 or less points, or in OT; last week’s OT loss to Colts was first close game Tennessee lost this year- four of its five losses are by 23+ points. Expect Bears to try and run ball vs Titan defense that allowed 166-171 rushing yards the last two weeks. AFC South underdogs are 8-6 vs spread in non-divisional games. Three of last four Chicago games, four of last six Titan games went over total.

Vikings (5-3) @ Seahawks (4-4)—Seattle been much better at home; they’re 3-0 there, allowing 14 ppg while upsetting Packers/Patriots (giving up only four TDs on 30 drives)- they allow 20.4 ppg on road (8 TDs/50 drives). Seahawks are 0-2 as favorites this year (both games were on road); underdogs are 7-1 vs spread in their games this year- since ’05, they’re 22-12-1 vs spread as home favorites. Vikings are running ball for 105 ypg on road this year, 130 ypg at home- they had three extra days to prepare after bad home loss to Bucs. Minnesota is 1-3 when it allows 23+ points; they’ve given up 13-13-14 points in its their other wins. Teams haven’t met since ’09; Vikings won last two meetings, but lost four of six visits here. Six of last seven series games were decided by 17+ points. NFC North teams are 9-12 vs spread in non-divisional games. Six of eight Seattle games stayed under the total, as did five of Vikings’ last seven.

Buccaneers (3-4) @ Raiders (3-4)— Oakland won six of eight series games; last loss was to Gruden in SB XXXVII ten years ago; Bucs are 0-4 in Black Hole, losing by average score of 35-13. This year’s Raiders are showing signs of life after 1-4 start, beating pair of stiff teams after encouraging 23-20 loss at unbeaten Falcons- they’re 2-1 at home, but both wins (Pitt/Jax) were by a FG- since losing that Super Bowl, Oakland is 8-21 vs spread when favored at home. Bucs had extra time here after encouraging Thursday win at Minnesota; they’re 3-0 as road underdogs this year, as Vincent Jackson has proven to be valuable downfield target for Freeman. Bucs also ran ball for 134 yards/game in three weeks since their bye, so they’re getting better balance. NFC South road teams are 9-1 vs spread in non-divisional games. Last four Tampa Bay games, four of last six Raider games went over the total.

Steelers (4-3) @ Giants (6-2)—Real life intrudes; anyone who lives in New Jersey has had a rough week. Giants’ prep here has to have been disrupted. That said, if Archie Manning hadn’t strong-armed Chargers into trading his youngest son to Swamp, Giants would’ve drafted Big Ben, and NFL history would be different. Home teams lost four of last five series games, with Giants winning last meeting at Heinz in ’08. Pitt won three of last five visits here, but haven’t faced Big Blue here since ’04. Giants are 1-3 as home favorites this year, winning last three games in Swamp by 7-14-4 points; they’re coming off pair of wins over division rivals Redskins/Cowboys- underdogs covered seven of their eight games. Pitt is 1-3 on road this year, allowing 31-34-26 points in losses; they’ve allowed only one opponent (Raiders) to rush for 100+ yards. Giants are 1-3 vs spread when running ball for less than 100 yards. Since ’06, Steelers are 11-20-1 vs spread as road underdogs. Three of last four Steeler games stayed under; three of last four Giant games went over.

Cowboys (3-4) @ Falcons (7-0)—All three Dallas games since its bye went down to last minute, with Pokes losing two of three; loss to Giants last week was heartbreaker, rallying back from 23-0 deficit to take lead, before coming up just short. Cowboys are 2-2 on road; they’ve allowed 17 or less points in all three wins, 27+ in its four losses. Atlanta is NFL’s last unbeaten team; they’re 3-0 at home, 1-2 as home favorites, winning home games by 6-2-3 points- since ’07, they’re 20-9-1 as home favorites. Atlanta scored 23+ points in every game this year, 27-30-23 in three home games. Dallas is 16-8 vs Falcons, winning last two meetings, last of which was in ’09; they’re 7-5 on Peachtree Street, winning last two visits- their last loss here was in ’93. NFC South home favorites are 3-6 vs spread in non-divisional games. Three of last four Dallas games went over the total.

Eagles (3-4) @ Saints (2-5)— Two desperate, struggling teams; could be Vick’s last chance to keep starting job- if he can’t move ball against defense that allowed 513-530 yards in two games since its bye, then rookie Foles could see action. Philly also had disruptions this week after hurricane; they’re 1-2 on road, with only win in last 2:00 in Cleveland, hardly a green flag. Saints are putrid on defense but had scored 24+ points in every game until last week’s debacle in Denver, when they were outgained 530-252, with much of the 252 in garbage time. NO is 0-4 when it scores less than 31 points, but scary to back struggling visitor that recently canned its DC against Brees’ offense. Teams haven’t met since Saints won 40-22 in last meeting at Linc, three years ago; Eagles are 8-4 in last 12 visits here, 8-8 overall. NFC East road underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in non-divisional games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:26577 Followers:33
11/03/2012 09:00 PM

Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

With the calendar turning to November, books and bettors have a tighter grasp on the NFL teams heading into Week 9. We take a closer look at which lines have been on the move, in Las Vegas and online, with help from Jay Rood, sportsbook director at the MGM Mirage, and Mike Perry of Sportsbook.ag.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans – Open: Texas -12, Move: -10

It’s been all public money on the Texans so far in Nevada and online. Perry reports 70 to 80 percent of the action is on Houston while Rood says the sharps are sitting this one out. The number opened as high as -12, however, most markets are dealing the key number of 10 as of Thursday.

“Wise guys haven’t come in on this one at all,” Rood told Covers. “We might go to 11 and (sharps) might take a pop and move it back to 10.5.”

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts – Open: Colts +1, Move: +2.5

The Dolphins, winners of three in a row, have been wiseguy darlings this season. However, the sharp money hasn’t influenced this move yet. Rood says the money has been pretty split with a slight lean to Miami.

“It’s a tough game for the betting public to figure out,” he says. “I don’t see it going up right now. If the sharps are getting involved in it, it may move (to the key number of -3).”

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Oakland Raiders – Open: Raiders -1, Move: Pick

Money on the Bucs has moved this spread as far as a pick for Sunday’s game. Tampa Bay is another team drawing the admiration of sharps in recent weeks. Rood says the action has been split as of Thursday but the move to a pick’em at certain books may be an indication of where this line will end up.

“The +1 could be disappearing quickly and I could see it coming down to a pick at most places closer to game time,” he says.

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks – Open: Seahawks -2.5, Move: -4.5

This spread was as high as -5 before buyback came in on the Vikings. Minnesota is coming off a crushing home loss last Thursday and travels for just the third time this season to the toughest stadium in the NFL. The spread isn’t the only thing on the move for this game. The total has dropped from 39.5 to 38.5.

“It’s going to be a test for Minnesota,” says Rood. “Minnesota’s defense is going to have to step up and give the offense a shot to win the game. It could be a test of wills on defense and a matter of whose horse can get going first – (Marshawn) Lynch or (Adrian) Peterson.”

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons – Open: Falcons -7, Move: -4

One online book opened this Sunday Night Football showdown as high as a touchdown. Most books are now dealing -4 with sharp bets coming in early on the Cowboys. Perry says they opened the spread at -5 and went to -5.5 before wise guys came back on Dallas. Sixty to 70 percent of the money is on the Falcons, however.

“As long as Dallas doesn’t shoot themselves in the foot, they can play with anyone in the league,” says Rood. “From a result perspective, nothing would shock me. I could see Dallas come out and stoke the Falcons by three touchdowns. And, I could see it be the complete opposite.”

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints – Open: Saints -3.5, Move: -3

Two struggling franchises take the Monday night spotlight, with the early money coming in on the Eagles and moving to the key number of a field goal.

“The sharks bit hard on this one at 3.5,” says Perry, “dropping the number to 3. Money is virtually down the middle, with 51 percent on the Saints.”

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:26577 Followers:33
11/03/2012 09:02 PM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 9

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 9:

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-4, 47.5)

Cowboys’ slow starts vs. Falcons fast first quarters

The Cowboys play their best football when behind on the scoreboard, which has kind of been the way all their games are going. Dallas ranks 30th in the NFL in first-quarter points, averaging just two per game, and was outscored 13-0 in the first quarter of last week’s loss to New York.

Atlanta, on the other hand, has stayed perfect in the standings thanks to its strong starts. The Falcons offense is averaging 6.7 points per first quarter – fourth in the NFL – and the team has trailed after one frame only once this season, outscoring foes 48-13 in the first quarter.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-10, 47)

Bills’ run defense vs. Arian Foster

Buffalo’s defensive line might as well have a turnstile the way opposing teams are rushing through it. The Bills rank dead last in the league in defending the run, giving up 176.9 yards on the ground per game. They were gashed for 195 yards and two scores from Tennessee RB Chris Johnson last weekend. Buffalo has given up nearly two rushing touchdowns per game this season, another NFL worst.

Foster leads the league in scores on the ground, rumbling into the end zone 10 times and sits fifth in total rushing yards with 659. He’ll have plenty of fuel in the tank after a bye which followed a 98-yard, two-score performance against Baltimore in Week 7.

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5, 38.5)

Sheltered Vikes vs. Soggy CenturyLink Field

Surprise, surprise. The extended forecast is calling for rain in Seattle. There’s a 50 percent chance of showers and game-time temperatures are expected to slip into the low 50s. Add to that environment the always-boisterous “12th Man” at CenturyLink Field, and the Vikes are in hostile territory in Week 9.

That shouldn’t phase a bunch of tough guys from Minnesota, except for the fact the Vikings are sheltered under the cozy confines of the Metrodome most weeks. Minnesota has played just one outdoor game this season – a 38-28 loss at Washington – and is 1-2 SU and ATS away from home this season.

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-3, 52.5)

Eagles’ field position vs. Saints’ punting

Part of the Eagles’ struggles on offense has come from poor field position. Philadelphia ranks 31st in the league in starting field position, beginning drives at an average of the 24.9-yard line. In 83 possessions this year, the Eagles have started at their own 40-yard line of better just eight times. The Eagles rank third worst in punt return yardage (5.6 yards per return) and i26th in the NFL in kick return yards (20.2 yards per kick return).

The Saints aren’t doing a lot of things right but have been one of the best punting team in the NFL this season. New Orleans’ big boot Thomas Morstead boasts an average punt of 51.3 yards (second highest in the NFL) and the return coverage is keeping that at 46.4 average yards net on punts – tops in the league.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: