cnotes Posts:24829 Followers:33
11/15/2012 07:31 PM

Bills Hoping To End 3-Game Slide Thursday Against Miami

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

NFL Betting Preview
Date: 11/15/2012 at 8:20 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Bills -1, O/U 45
Television: NFL Network

Miami Dolphins: A second consecutive loss, this time a 37-3 whipping at the hands of the Titans last Sunday, left the Fins (4-5 straight-up, 4-4-1 against the spread) on the outside looking in for the AFC playoffs. Four turnovers, three of them interceptions thrown by rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill, did Miami in as Tennessee built a 21-0 lead early in the second quarter and never looked back. The Dolphins were 7-point favorites and surrendered a season-high 177 yards on the ground, 126 of those from Titans tailback Chris Johnson. Miami has now failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games, though "under" bettors have found some profit with winning tickets in four of the last five Dolphin tilts. The Dolphins swept last year's two meetings, and they have won and covered three of the last four matchups with the Bills.

Buffalo Bills: The Gillette Stadium jinx remains alive for the Bills (3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS), who moved to 0-11 at the field since it opened with a 37-31 setback to the New England Patriots last week. Buffalo set a team record with 35 first downs and outgained the Pats 481-347 in the game, but three turnovers proved costly, none more than a pick thrown by QB Ryan Fitzpatrick in the final half-minute when the Bills appeared to be driving for a potential game-winning score. The Bills rolled up 162 yards on the ground, 80 of those by Fred Jackson, who has already been out for Thursday's game due to a concussion (click to check updated NFL injury report). Buffalo ranks sixth in the NFL with 143.1 yards per game on the ground and will turn to C.J. Spiller (632 yards rushing, 14th in NFL). Eight of the last 12 clashes in this series have failed to reach the total, but all three of Buffalo's home games this season have jumped the scoreboard figure.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24829 Followers:33
11/15/2012 07:32 PM

Bills Hoping To End 3-Game Slide Thursday Against Miami

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

NFL Betting Preview
Date: 11/15/2012 at 8:20 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Bills -1, O/U 45
Television: NFL Network

Miami Dolphins: A second consecutive loss, this time a 37-3 whipping at the hands of the Titans last Sunday, left the Fins (4-5 straight-up, 4-4-1 against the spread) on the outside looking in for the AFC playoffs. Four turnovers, three of them interceptions thrown by rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill, did Miami in as Tennessee built a 21-0 lead early in the second quarter and never looked back. The Dolphins were 7-point favorites and surrendered a season-high 177 yards on the ground, 126 of those from Titans tailback Chris Johnson. Miami has now failed to cover the spread in three of its last four games, though "under" bettors have found some profit with winning tickets in four of the last five Dolphin tilts. The Dolphins swept last year's two meetings, and they have won and covered three of the last four matchups with the Bills.

Buffalo Bills: The Gillette Stadium jinx remains alive for the Bills (3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS), who moved to 0-11 at the field since it opened with a 37-31 setback to the New England Patriots last week. Buffalo set a team record with 35 first downs and outgained the Pats 481-347 in the game, but three turnovers proved costly, none more than a pick thrown by QB Ryan Fitzpatrick in the final half-minute when the Bills appeared to be driving for a potential game-winning score. The Bills rolled up 162 yards on the ground, 80 of those by Fred Jackson, who has already been out for Thursday's game due to a concussion (click to check updated NFL injury report). Buffalo ranks sixth in the NFL with 143.1 yards per game on the ground and will turn to C.J. Spiller (632 yards rushing, 14th in NFL). Eight of the last 12 clashes in this series have failed to reach the total, but all three of Buffalo's home games this season have jumped the scoreboard figure.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24829 Followers:33
11/15/2012 07:33 PM

NFL Week 11 Preview: Dolphins at Bills

MIAMI DOLPHINS (4-5)

at BUFFALO BILLS (3-6)


Kickoff: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: Buffalo -1.5, Total: 45

AFC East foes eager to put a stop to their losing streaks clash on Thursday night when the Bills host the Dolphins.

These teams have a short week to recover from tough Week 10 defeats. After a narrow 23-20 loss in Indianapolis in Week 9, the Dolphins were never in their Week 11 contest, getting blown out 37-3 at home to Tennessee. And the Bills were 15 yards away from upsetting the Patriots in New England (and that despite 148 penalty yards) before a game-ending INT sealed their third straight defeat. Miami has covered in eight of its past 10 road games, including an SU win at Buffalo last December. In that meeting, RB Reggie Bush torched the Bills for 203 rushing yards, and the Dolphins won despite losing three fumbles. Buffalo has allowed a league-high 164 rushing YPG and 5.5 YPC this season. Bills RB Fred Jackson (concussion) is listed as doubtful.

Who will win this AFC East rivalry game? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill had strung together four straight games without an interception before throwing three picks to the Titans last week. The rookie has a paltry 5 TD passes and 9 INT in his nine starts this season, but could have success facing Buffalo's 21st-ranked pass defense (246 YPG). Despite Bush's big day in his last visit to Ralph Wilson Stadium, he has just one game of 70+ rushing yards in 2012, way back in Week 2. Since then, he's rushed for a paltry 314 yards (45 per game) on 3.7 yards per carry. And although the Bills have the league's worst run defense, they have been better over the past two weeks (117.5 YPG on 3.9 YPC) against a pair of quality running teams (Texans, Patriots). Buffalo's defense needs to figure out a way to force some mistakes though, failing to cause a single turnover in each of its past three games.

Buffalo is just 1-2 (SU and ATS) at home this season, due mostly to a defense allowing 34.7 PPG and 464 total YPG to these three visitors (K.C., New England and Tennessee). QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has tossed 17 TD and 10 INT this season, but has failed to throw a touchdown in three of his past five games. He's 2-2 in his career versus Miami, throwing for 994 yards (249 YPG), 5 TD and 7 INT, with five of those picks coming last year. However, Miami's passing defense has been much worse this season, allowing the fifth-most passing yards in the NFL (278 YPG). Turnovers continue to be a problem for this Bills offense, as they have 16 giveaways over the past six games. Another big issue in upstate New York has been injuries that continue to pile up. In addition to Jackson being doubtful, DE Mark Anderson (knee) remains out, while DE Chris Kelsay (neck) and CB Aaron Williams (ankle) are both doubtful. Three other key defenders are also banged-up, but are expected to play on Thursday -- CB Leodis McKelvin (groin) and DTs Marcell Dareus (shoulder) and Kyle Williams (ankle).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24829 Followers:33
11/15/2012 07:35 PM

Dolphins at Bills

November 15, 2012


This week’s Thursday night NFL game takes us to Orchard Park in upstate New York, where Buffalo will take on Miami in an AFC East encounter.

As of late Wednesday afternoon, most books had Buffalo (3-6 straight up, 4-5 against the spread) installed as a 1 ½-point favorite with a total of 45 ½. By early this afternoon, the Bills were favored by 2 1/2. Gamblers can take the Dolphins on the money line for a plus-120 return (risk $100 to win $120).

Chan Gailey’s team nearly pulled a shocking upset last Sunday in Foxboro, only to come up on the short end of a 37-31 decision. Although the Patriots got the outright victory, the Bills hooked up their betting supporters as 13 ½-point underdogs.

Buffalo had a chance to win in the waning moments, advancing to New England’s 15-yard line. The Pats didn’t seal the deal until Devin McCourty intercepted Ryan Fitzpatrick in the end zone with 23 seconds remaining.

Fitzpatrick completed 27-of-40 passes for 337 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Fred Jackson rushed 16 times for 80 yards and a pair of scores. He also had four receptions for 35 yards, but he sustained a concussion on the Bills’ final drive that will keep him ‘out’ this week.

For the season, Fitzpatrick has connected on 62.5 of his passes for 2,011 yards with a 17/10 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Stevie Johnson is Fitzpatrick’s favorite target, hauling in 41 receptions for 502 yards and four TDs.

Without Jackson, C.J. Spiller will get more opportunities and that’s not a bad thing. The Clemson product has rushed for 632 yards and four TDs, averaging 7.3 yards per carry. Spiller also has 28 catches for 297 yards and one TD.

Buffalo is ranked 16th in the NFL in scoring offense, averaging 23.4 points per game. The Bills’ defense is the NFL’s worst, giving up 31.7 PPG.

Miami (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) is coming off its worst effort of the season. Tennessee went into South Florida last weekend and dealt out woodshed treatment from start to finish, collecting an easy 37-3 win as a 6 ½-point underdog. The 40 combined points slithered ‘under’ the 44-point total.

Miami rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill had not been intercepted since September, but he was picked off three times by the Titans. The Dolphins produced only 255 yards of total offense, and Reggie Bush had just six ‘touches’ (four carries, two catches).

Bush has rushed for 555 yards and four TDs, averaging 4.4 YPC. He also has 21 receptions for 179 yards.

Tannehill has completed 58.9 percent of his throws for 1,789 yards with a 5/9 TD-INT ratio. His favorite wideout has been Brian Hartline, who has 49 catches for 741 yards and one TD.

Miami’s defense has given up plenty of yards this year. To be exact, the Dolphins rank 22nd in total defense, surrendering 372.2 yards per contest. However, they are stingy about giving up points, allowing only 20.7 PPG (eighth in the NFL)

Joe Philbin’s squad has gone on the road five times, compiling a 2-3 SU record and a 3-2 ATS mark. The ‘Fins are 3-1 ATS as road underdogs.

Buffalo has only played at home three times, going 1-2 both SU and ATS. As a home favorite during Gailey’s three-year tenure, the Bills are 3-6-1 versus the number.

Buffalo will most likely be without two defensive starters. DE Mark Anderson (knee) and CB Aaron Williams (leg) are both listed as ‘doubtful.’

The ‘over’ is 6-3 overall for Buffalo, 3-0 in its home games. On the flip side, the ‘Fins have watched the ‘under’ go 6-3 overall, 4-1 in their five road assignments. Regardless of the venue, the ‘under’ has cashed in five consecutive Miami games.

Miami has won six of the last eight head-to-head meetings against Buffalo both SU and ATS, including a sweep of the season series last year. The Dolphins won by a 35-8 count as three-point home favorites, and they collected a 30-23 win as one-point road ‘chalk.’

The NFL Network will have the telecast at 8:25 p.m. Eastern. Temperatures at kickoff are expected to be in the upper 30s with a wind chill of 33 degrees.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--With Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger ailing from shoulder and rib injuries suffered in Monday’s overtime win over Kansas City, Byron Leftwich will make his first start since 2009 on Sunday night at home vs. Baltimore. The Ravens are listed as three-point favorites with a total of 41. Roethlisberger could be out for an extended period of time.

--There are five home underdogs on the board in Week 11: Carolina (+1.5 vs. Tampa Bay), Oakland (+5.5 vs. New Orleans), Detroit (+3.5 vs. Green Bay), Pittsburgh (+3.5 vs. Baltimore) and Kansas City (+3.5 vs. Cincinnati).

--Click here to check out my NFL Power Rankings going into Week 11.

--My take on the ‘Terrible’ Tebow remark from an anonymous Jets player: Tim Tebow is a unique human being and football player. He owns special qualities that few people possess and that also pertains to his strengths and weaknesses as a QB. Without a doubt, if a team decides to go with Tebow as its every-down QB, it must cater to his talents. But for all of those knuckleheads (too many to name!) who speak in a matter-of-fact tone when stating that Tebow can’t be successful as an NFL signal caller, I submit to you the real facts, ones that aren’t up for debate.

In the only significant sample size we have for judging Tebow as a pro QB, he thrived. He was given the keys to a Denver team with a 1-4 record that was left for dead. Then the organization intentionally set him up to fail by trading its best WR, Brandon Lloyd, within 48 hours of naming Tebow as the starter. (Lloyd had led the NFL in receiving yards in 2010.) The team that was done, one on its way to a 3-13 record, suddenly became the story in the NFL under Tebow. The Broncos won seven of its last 11 regular-season games to make the playoffs. Then in the postseason, Tebow helped the Broncos beat the Steelers in an overtime thriller. Next, they lost at New England in the playoffs. Last time I checked, a few quarterbacks and teams have been known to leave Gillette Stadium with ‘L’s in January.

And that’s all. There’s nothing else to judge Tebow by other than his 2011 campaign with the Broncos. And if memory serves, Tebow beat the Jets with a game-winning touchdown run at crunch time. On that play, Antonio Cromartie, the Jets’ cornerback who can’t keep track of his kids’ names, refused to challenge Tebow as he scampered toward the end zone. Instead, Cromartie pretended as if he thought Tebow was still behind the line of scrimmage and turned his back as if he was still in coverage. I wouldn’t be shocked if Cromartie is the anonymous source, either. And if he wants the word ‘terrible’ defined for him, all he has to do is check the tape of the play as I just described.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24829 Followers:33
11/15/2012 07:35 PM

Dolphins at Bills

November 15, 2012


This week’s Thursday night NFL game takes us to Orchard Park in upstate New York, where Buffalo will take on Miami in an AFC East encounter.

As of late Wednesday afternoon, most books had Buffalo (3-6 straight up, 4-5 against the spread) installed as a 1 ½-point favorite with a total of 45 ½. By early this afternoon, the Bills were favored by 2 1/2. Gamblers can take the Dolphins on the money line for a plus-120 return (risk $100 to win $120).

Chan Gailey’s team nearly pulled a shocking upset last Sunday in Foxboro, only to come up on the short end of a 37-31 decision. Although the Patriots got the outright victory, the Bills hooked up their betting supporters as 13 ½-point underdogs.

Buffalo had a chance to win in the waning moments, advancing to New England’s 15-yard line. The Pats didn’t seal the deal until Devin McCourty intercepted Ryan Fitzpatrick in the end zone with 23 seconds remaining.

Fitzpatrick completed 27-of-40 passes for 337 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Fred Jackson rushed 16 times for 80 yards and a pair of scores. He also had four receptions for 35 yards, but he sustained a concussion on the Bills’ final drive that will keep him ‘out’ this week.

For the season, Fitzpatrick has connected on 62.5 of his passes for 2,011 yards with a 17/10 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Stevie Johnson is Fitzpatrick’s favorite target, hauling in 41 receptions for 502 yards and four TDs.

Without Jackson, C.J. Spiller will get more opportunities and that’s not a bad thing. The Clemson product has rushed for 632 yards and four TDs, averaging 7.3 yards per carry. Spiller also has 28 catches for 297 yards and one TD.

Buffalo is ranked 16th in the NFL in scoring offense, averaging 23.4 points per game. The Bills’ defense is the NFL’s worst, giving up 31.7 PPG.

Miami (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) is coming off its worst effort of the season. Tennessee went into South Florida last weekend and dealt out woodshed treatment from start to finish, collecting an easy 37-3 win as a 6 ½-point underdog. The 40 combined points slithered ‘under’ the 44-point total.

Miami rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill had not been intercepted since September, but he was picked off three times by the Titans. The Dolphins produced only 255 yards of total offense, and Reggie Bush had just six ‘touches’ (four carries, two catches).

Bush has rushed for 555 yards and four TDs, averaging 4.4 YPC. He also has 21 receptions for 179 yards.

Tannehill has completed 58.9 percent of his throws for 1,789 yards with a 5/9 TD-INT ratio. His favorite wideout has been Brian Hartline, who has 49 catches for 741 yards and one TD.

Miami’s defense has given up plenty of yards this year. To be exact, the Dolphins rank 22nd in total defense, surrendering 372.2 yards per contest. However, they are stingy about giving up points, allowing only 20.7 PPG (eighth in the NFL)

Joe Philbin’s squad has gone on the road five times, compiling a 2-3 SU record and a 3-2 ATS mark. The ‘Fins are 3-1 ATS as road underdogs.

Buffalo has only played at home three times, going 1-2 both SU and ATS. As a home favorite during Gailey’s three-year tenure, the Bills are 3-6-1 versus the number.

Buffalo will most likely be without two defensive starters. DE Mark Anderson (knee) and CB Aaron Williams (leg) are both listed as ‘doubtful.’

The ‘over’ is 6-3 overall for Buffalo, 3-0 in its home games. On the flip side, the ‘Fins have watched the ‘under’ go 6-3 overall, 4-1 in their five road assignments. Regardless of the venue, the ‘under’ has cashed in five consecutive Miami games.

Miami has won six of the last eight head-to-head meetings against Buffalo both SU and ATS, including a sweep of the season series last year. The Dolphins won by a 35-8 count as three-point home favorites, and they collected a 30-23 win as one-point road ‘chalk.’

The NFL Network will have the telecast at 8:25 p.m. Eastern. Temperatures at kickoff are expected to be in the upper 30s with a wind chill of 33 degrees.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--With Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger ailing from shoulder and rib injuries suffered in Monday’s overtime win over Kansas City, Byron Leftwich will make his first start since 2009 on Sunday night at home vs. Baltimore. The Ravens are listed as three-point favorites with a total of 41. Roethlisberger could be out for an extended period of time.

--There are five home underdogs on the board in Week 11: Carolina (+1.5 vs. Tampa Bay), Oakland (+5.5 vs. New Orleans), Detroit (+3.5 vs. Green Bay), Pittsburgh (+3.5 vs. Baltimore) and Kansas City (+3.5 vs. Cincinnati).

--Click here to check out my NFL Power Rankings going into Week 11.

--My take on the ‘Terrible’ Tebow remark from an anonymous Jets player: Tim Tebow is a unique human being and football player. He owns special qualities that few people possess and that also pertains to his strengths and weaknesses as a QB. Without a doubt, if a team decides to go with Tebow as its every-down QB, it must cater to his talents. But for all of those knuckleheads (too many to name!) who speak in a matter-of-fact tone when stating that Tebow can’t be successful as an NFL signal caller, I submit to you the real facts, ones that aren’t up for debate.

In the only significant sample size we have for judging Tebow as a pro QB, he thrived. He was given the keys to a Denver team with a 1-4 record that was left for dead. Then the organization intentionally set him up to fail by trading its best WR, Brandon Lloyd, within 48 hours of naming Tebow as the starter. (Lloyd had led the NFL in receiving yards in 2010.) The team that was done, one on its way to a 3-13 record, suddenly became the story in the NFL under Tebow. The Broncos won seven of its last 11 regular-season games to make the playoffs. Then in the postseason, Tebow helped the Broncos beat the Steelers in an overtime thriller. Next, they lost at New England in the playoffs. Last time I checked, a few quarterbacks and teams have been known to leave Gillette Stadium with ‘L’s in January.

And that’s all. There’s nothing else to judge Tebow by other than his 2011 campaign with the Broncos. And if memory serves, Tebow beat the Jets with a game-winning touchdown run at crunch time. On that play, Antonio Cromartie, the Jets’ cornerback who can’t keep track of his kids’ names, refused to challenge Tebow as he scampered toward the end zone. Instead, Cromartie pretended as if he thought Tebow was still behind the line of scrimmage and turned his back as if he was still in coverage. I wouldn’t be shocked if Cromartie is the anonymous source, either. And if he wants the word ‘terrible’ defined for him, all he has to do is check the tape of the play as I just described.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24829 Followers:33
11/15/2012 07:38 PM

NFL

Week 11

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-1, 46)

The slumping Miami Dolphins attempt to even their road record at 3-3 on Thursday night, when they visit the AFC East-rival Buffalo Bills. Miami, which had won two straight before their bye week, made it three in a row on Oct. 28 as they soundly thumped the New York Jets 30-9 on the road. But the Dolphins were edged by the Colts in Indianapolis the following week, dropping them to 2-3 away from home, and suffered their most lopsided home loss since 1968 on Sunday - a 37-3 defeat against Tennessee.

Buffalo will be trying to halt a three-game losing streak as it returns home after two straight on the road. The Bills lost a one-point decision at home to Tennessee on Oct. 21 and followed their bye week with setbacks at Houston and New England. Beginning Thursday, Buffalo will play five of its final seven games at home, including a Week 15 matchup against Seattle at Rogers Centre in Toronto.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: This game opened at a pick at most books and action on the Bills has moved the spread to -1. The total has gone from 45 to 46 and has now settled at 45.5 at some markets.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 30s. Winds are expected to East at 5 mph.

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (4-5, 4-5 ATS): Miami committed four turnovers Sunday that led to 20 points and allowed an opposing running back to gain 100 yards for the first time in 23 games as Chris Johnson rushed for 126 on 23 carries. Rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill threw three interceptions and running back Reggie Bush had a costly fumble that earned him a seat on the bench in the first half. Tannehill had gone four consecutive games without a pick. He may have an easier time Thursday as Buffalo has the 25th-ranked pass defense.

ABOUT THE BILLS (3-6, 4-5 ATS): Buffalo never led Sunday as it lost to New England for the second time this season. Ryan Fitzpatrick connected with Donald Jones from two yards out with 7:47 remaining in the fourth quarter to get the Bills within 34-31. But after a Patriots field goal, the quarterback threw an interception in the end zone with 23 seconds left, ending Buffalo's hopes of notching its first win in 11 tries at Gillette Stadium since it opened in 2002. The Bills lost more than a game as running back Fred Jackson was ruled out of Thursday's game with a concussion after being hit in the head by Patriots linebacker Brandon Spikes late in Sunday's loss. C.J. Spiller will see the bulk of the action against Miami.

TRENDS:

* Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Favorite is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. AFC East.
* Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. AFC East.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Miami won both meetings last season by a combined score of 65-31.

2. Fitzpatrick passed for 337 yards Sunday, making him the fifth QB in Bills history to reach the 10,000-yard mark.

3. Buffalo announced the game, in which it will honor all branches of the military, is sold out.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24829 Followers:33
11/15/2012 07:39 PM

NFL

Week 11

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tale of the tape: Dolphins at Bills
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

An AFC East showdown takes the Thursday night spotlight when the Miami Dolphins visit the Buffalo Bills. We break down both sides in our tale of the tape:

Offense

The Dolphins, who average 105.8 yards on the ground per game, tried to spark their rushing offense last week versus Tennessee but mustered only 54 yards on 15 carries including a fumble from RB Reggie Bush. Miami has rushed for only 78.3 yards per game over its last three contests, and hasn’t done much to relieve the pressure on rookie QB Ryan Tannehill, who was intercepted three times in Week 10.

The Bills will be without RB Fred Jackson (concussion) Thursday, leaving the offense to lean on backup C.J. Spiller. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. Spiller averages 7.3 yards per carry this year – best in the NFL – and seems to make big plays whenever he touches the football. Buffalo put up a solid fight versus New England last Sunday, scoring 31 points and boasting a franchise-record 35 first downs. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick passed for 337 yards and two touchdowns in the loss.

Edge: Bills


Defense

Miami has looked to its defense to keep it in ball games this season, allowing just 20.7 points per game – eighth lowest in the NFL. The Dolphins front seven has done a great job plugging up the ground game, giving up 94.2 yards an outing, but that number must be taken with a grain of salt because of how bad Miami is at defending the pass. Opponents are putting up 278 yards through the air each time the Dolphins take the field. Those same opponents are averaging 11.7 yards per completion.

The Bills haven't been doing themselves any favors defensively, allowing at least 35 points in four of their last six games overall. They're giving up a whopping 6.4 yards per play on the season, and have been particularly poor against the run, allowing 5.5 yards per rush. On a positive note, the Dolphins don't appear poised to exploit that weakness, as they're averaging only 3.8 yards per rush. Buffalo has been fairly consistent in terms of its pass rush, averaging 2.7 sacks per game here at home.

Edge: Dolphins


Special teams

The Dolphins return game has been a big positive this season, as they're averaging well north of the league average at 12.3 yards per punt return, and 27.3 yards on kickoffs. Kicker Dan Carpenter has had a bit of an off year, converting on only 13 of 17 field goal attempts. With a sputtering red zone offense, Carpenter could certainly be a factor on Thursday night.

Buffalo has been even better returning punts, one of the league's best teams in that department, averaging 19.5 yards per return. The problem is, they've had a tough time defending punts, giving up 15 yards per return. On kickoff returns, they've been nothing more than average at 26.3 yards per return. Veteran kicker Ryan Lindell has made good on 9 of 10 field goal attempts.

Edge: Bills


Word on the street

"When you play like that, we need to make some corrections. We need to make improvements, even though we're in a semi-time crunch.'' Dolphins head coach Joe Philbin on the team's quick turn-around following Sunday's 37-3 drubbing at the hands of the Titans.

"As an offense, we're definitely going to miss him because he brings so much to our team. But this is familiar territory for me.'' Bills RB C.J. Spiller speaking about the injury to starting tailback Fred Jackson.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24829 Followers:33
11/15/2012 10:50 PM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
11/12/12 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1000 Detail
11/11/12 14-­10-­0 58.33% +­1500 Detail
11/08/12 1-­1-­0 50.00% -­50 Detail
11/05/12 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1000 Detail
11/04/12 10-­14-­0 41.67% -­2700 Detail
11/01/12 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1000 Detail
Totals 31-­25-­0 55.36% +1750



Thursday, November 15
Game Score Status Pick Amount
Miami - 8:20 PM ET Buffalo -1 500
Buffalo - Under 45 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24829 Followers:33
11/18/2012 11:33 AM

Key Divisional Matchups In NFC North, AFC West, AFC North

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

NFL Betting Preview
Date: 11/18/2012 at 1:00 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Green Bay -3, O/U 51
Television: FOX

Green Bay Packers: The Packers (6-3 straight-up, 4-5 against the spread) won four straight games (3-1 ATS) before having a bye last week. The offense has really come on the last six contests (30.3 points per game) with the "over" going 5-1. There is a key injury on defense with pass rusher Clay Matthews (hamstring) out indefinitely (click to check updated NFL injury report).

Detroit Lions: The Lions (4-5 SU and ATS) find themselves at the bottom of the NFC North with their playoff hopes fading fast. Detroit has played just three home games this year (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) with the next three in Motown. There are major injury concerns in the secondary, which could be a big problem against Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos

NFL Betting Preview
Date: 11/18/2012 at 4:25 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Denver -7, O/U 50 ½
Television: CBS

San Diego Chargers: The Chargers (4-5 SU and ATS) are just 2-5 SU and ATS in their last seven games, and both wins came against the struggling Kansas City Chiefs. One of the recent losses was home versus Denver on October 15, a devastating 35-24 setback after getting outscored 35-0 in the second half.

Denver Broncos: The Broncos (6-3 SU and ATS) have been going in the opposite direction, 4-0 SU and ATS the last four and scoring 34 ppg (the "over" 3-1). Denver QB Peyton Manning is playing at an MVP caliber, but the team can’t be too overconfident with San Diego 5-1 SU and 4-0-2 ATS in the last six at Mile High.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

NFL Betting Preview
Date: 11/18/2012 at 8:20 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Pick’em, O/U 45 ½
Television: NBC

Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens (7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS) annihilated Oakland last week 55-20 to improve to 5-0 SU (2-3 ATS) at home. However, the road hasn’t been as kind at 2-2 SU (2-2 ATS), but they have won two of the last three at Heinz Field, and a win on Sunday will put them in firm control of the AFC North.

Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS) have won four straight, but QB Ben Roethlisberger is out with a shoulder injury, with Byron Leftwich the replacement (note the spread move). Pittsburgh is 4-0 SU (2-2 ATS) at home this year, with the "under" 7-0 in the team's last seven home games overall. The "over" is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings between these teams in Pittsburgh.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24829 Followers:33
11/18/2012 11:35 AM

Week 11 NFL Picks For Sunday November 18

Week 11 on the NFL betting card will mark the end of byes on this year's schedule, and the Don Best experts have selected seven games from Sunday's slate to provide analysis and picks.

First stop is Atlanta where the Falcons look to rebound from their first loss of the season vs. Arizona. The Falcons are 9½-10 point favorites with the total at 44 (click to check updated NFL odds).

Tampa Bay is in Carolina as slight 1½-point chalk against the Panthers. This NFC South tilt has a scoreboard figure of 48½-49, and six of the last eight series meetings played in Carolina have failed to reach the total.

Dallas looks to get back to .500 with a win over the visiting Cleveland Browns. The Cowboys are laying 7½-8, and they have won and covered the only two matchups with this edition of the Browns.

The Jets drag a three-game skid on the road when they travel to meet the Rams. St. Louis is favored by a field goal inside the Edward Jones Dome where the total stands at 38½, the lowest on Sunday's schedule.

Houston aims for its fourth consecutive victory in an AFC South clash against the Jaguars. This game started with the Texans laying 16, but the Don Best Real-Time Odds screen shows that number dipping to the 14½-15 point range while the total is 40½.

Another team hoping to reach the .500 mark is Cincinnati, a team that is on the road in Kansas City against the Chiefs. The Bengals are 3½-point favorites to extend KC's losing streak to seven.

Finally, AFC West rivals collide in Denver, where the Broncos are 7½-8 point favorites vs. the Chargers. Four of the last six in this series played in the Mile High City have gone "over" the total, and Sunday's number has dropped from 50½ at the opening bell to 48½.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: