cnotes Posts:24859 Followers:33
11/22/2012 09:34 AM

Pats-Jets Matchup Highlights Thanksgiving Day NFL Games

Houston Texans at Detroit Lions

NFL Betting Preview
Date: 11/22/2012 at 12:30 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Houston -3, O/U 48½
Television: CBS

Houston Texans: The Texans (9-1 straight-up, 7-3 against the spread) dodged a bullet last week at home and might be hard-pressed to get a tougher challenge on the road this Thanksgiving Day. Houston needed overtime to knock off Jacksonville 43-37 behind a game-winning 48-yard touchdown catch from wide receiver Andre Johnson (14 catches for a career-high 273 yards) but still failed to deliver as a 15-point favorite. Quarterback Matt Schaub also threw for a career-high 527 yards, which tied for the second-highest total in NFL history, and five touchdowns. Schaub and Johnson will now get to feast on Detroit’s secondary that was burned for a 22-yard TD pass from Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers in the final two minutes to win that game. Texans RB Arian Foster carried the ball 28 times for 77 yards in the win and should be more involved against the Lions as well.

Detroit Lions: Detroit (4-6 SU and ATS) blew a golden opportunity to beat a division opponent in losing 24-20 at home to the Packers last week and now must prepare for the AFC’s best team on short rest. The Lions saw QB Matthew Stafford complete less than half of his passes (17-of-39) for 266 yards with two interceptions but got WR Calvin Johnson involved (five catches for 143 yards) and hit him with the go-ahead touchdown with 3:01 left in the third quarter. However, they fell victim to Rodgers down the stretch and dropped to 0-4 in the NFC North, two games behind Minnesota for last place. Detroit is 3-3 SU in its last six games following a 1-3 start and has failed to cover two straight with the “over” going 3-1 in the team’s past four.

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Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 11/22/2012 at 4:15 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Dallas -4, O/U 47
Television: FOX

Washington Redskins: The Redskins (4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS) ended a three-game skid off their bye week and will now try to win two in a row against division opponents when they visit another NFC East rival in Arlington. Washington drilled Philadelphia 31-6 last week behind four touchdown passes from rookie QB Robert Griffin III, who completed 14-of-15 overall for 200 yards. None of the team’s receivers caught more than three passes, including Pierre Garcon, who returned from a foot injury to play for the first time in five games and totaled three catches for just five yards. The “under” cashed for the fourth straight time overall for the Redskins, although the “over” is 3-2 in their five road games so far this season.

Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) needed OT to edge Cleveland 23-20 last week after playing four of their previous five games on the road. They began a stretch of five home games in six weeks against the Browns and will close out the regular season at Washington on December 30. Dallas once again relied on the arm of QB Tony Romo to carry the team, as he completed 35-of-50 passes for 313 yards, including a 28-yard touchdown pass to WR Dez Bryant (12 catches for 145 yards) with 6:46 left in regular for a 17-13 lead. The Cowboys struggled to run the ball again without RB DeMarco Murray, with Felix Jones totaling 43 yards on 14 carries. Murray (foot) is doubtful to return for the annual Thanksgiving Day affair (click to check updated NFL injury report), so Romo will likely look to burn one of the league’s worst pass defenses, surrendering 289.2 yards per game.

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New England Patriots at New York Jets

NFL Betting Preview
Date: 11/22/2012 at 8:20 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: New England -7, O/U 50½
Television: NBC

New England Patriots: The Patriots (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) are coming off a 59-24 thrashing of Indianapolis last week, but the win did not come without a cost. All-Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski suffered a broken forearm while playing special teams on an extra-point attempt, and he is expected to miss a few games. Gronkowski hauled in seven catches for 137 yards, including two touchdowns, and he will be missed in the red zone as QB Tom Brady’s favorite target. The good news is that TE Aaron Hernandez is expected to return from an ankle injury and should be able to help Brady, who threw for 331 yards and three TDs against the Colts. Brady was actually outplayed by New York’s Mark Sanchez in the first meeting with the Jets (a 29-26 OT victory back on Oct. 21), and he will need to play better if the Pats are going to win their fifth straight game. The “over” has cashed in New England’s last eight games.

New York Jets: The Jets (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS) ended their three-game losing streak with an impressive 27-13 road win at St. Louis last week. They had dropped five of six, including the loss to New England, but found a way to shut down the Rams and score just enough to help top the 38-point total. New York covered easily as 3½-point road underdogs and also beat the 11-point line in the first meeting with the Patriots. The Jets got good balance offensively against St. Louis with QB Mark Sanchez throwing for 178 yards and running backs Shonn Greene and Bilal Powell combining for 106 yards on 29 carries. One of the keys was not turning the ball over, something they did twice in the last game vs. New England. The Pats scored two defensive touchdowns off four Indy turnovers last week, including a 59-yard interception return from new cornerback Aqib Talib.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24859 Followers:33
11/22/2012 09:36 AM

NFL Week 12 Preview: Texans at Lions

HOUSTON TEXANS (9-1)

at DETROIT LIONS (4-6)


Kickoff: Thursday, 12:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Houston -3, Total: 50.5

The Texans try to remain perfect on the road when they visit slumping Detroit on Thanksgiving Day.

The Lions haven’t had a happy Thanksgiving in a while, as they’ve lost eight Thanksgiving Classics in a row, SU and ATS, and they haven’t come within 11 points in any of those games. This season, Detroit has been victimized by slow starts and its own conservative play-calling. They Lions are just 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS at home. Houston’s previously dominant defense was a dud last week, allowing 458 yards and 37 points to the lowly Jaguars at home. But they did prove they could win a shootout, racking up 640 yards of offense in the 43-37 win. QB Matt Schaub threw for 527 yards (T-2nd in NFL history) and 5 TD, and could feast on Detroit’s banged up secondary.

Can the Lions end their Thanksgiving Day futility on Thursday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

The Texans have been outstanding on the road this season, going 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) with the defense allowing a mere 13.7 PPG and 257 total YPG to the host teams. But Houston's defense has a lot of work to do after surrendering a season-high 458 yards to Jacksonville last week, including 354 passing yards to second-string QB Chad Henne. Detroit's passing offense leads the NFL (302 YPG), so the Texans certainly have their work cut out for them. On the offensive side of the ball, Schaub will continue to rely on his top receiver, Andre Johnson, who is coming off a 14-catch, 273-yard performance in the wild 43-37 win over Jacksonville. The 273 yards is the most in the NFL since 2000. But the Texans remain a run-heavy offense, ranking eighth in the NFL with 137 rushing YPG. Arian Foster leads the league with 10 rushing touchdowns and has 37 more carries than anybody else in the NFL (24.9 per game). Houston's offense has been careless over the past two weeks, turning the football over five times.

Lions QB Matthew Stafford ranks fourth in the NFL in passing yards (2,988), but is just 21st in passer rating with a paltry 12 TD and 10 INT in his 10 games. He's also been sacked 22 times and the Texans are tied for eighth in the NFL with 27 sacks, led by DL J.J. Watt who has 11.5 sacks for the season. Stafford and top WR Calvin Johnson are starting to get on the same page, as Johnson has racked up three straight 100-yard receiving games and now leads the NFL with 1,117 receiving yards. He has been battling knee and thumb injuries, but he is expected to start on Thursday. Detroit's rushing offense has been nothing to write home about, ranking 23rd in the NFL with 99.9 yards per game. With Houston ranking second in the NFL in run defense (86 YPG), the game plan for Detroit will be a heavy passing attack. With the Lions committing four turnovers last week, they are now tied for third in the NFC in most giveaways (18).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24859 Followers:33
11/22/2012 09:38 AM

NFL Week 12 Preview: Redskins at Cowboys

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (4-6)

at DALLAS COWBOYS (5-5)


Kickoff: Thursday, 4:25 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -3, Total: 48

A classic NFL rivalry resumes on Thanksgiving Day when the Redskins visit the Cowboys.

Dallas has yet to cover at home this year (2-2 SU, 0-4 ATS), but it has covered in five of its past six games as a Thanksgiving Day favorite. They Cowboys will be dealing with a rising rookie superstar in Redskins QB Robert Griffin III, who bounced back from a mini-slump to throw four TDs against the Eagles last week. He’s posted a 100.3 passer rating in five road games this year. Dallas needed to come back and force overtime against the Browns at home last week, but has managed back-to-back SU wins for the first time since Weeks 9-12 last season.

Which NFC East rival will prevail on Thursday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Griffin III was outstanding in last week's 31-6 trouncing of Philadelphia, completing 14-of-15 passes for 4 TD. He also added 84 yards on 12 carries, improving his league-leading total among quarterbacks to 613 rushing yards. He hopes to be the difference maker that his team has lacked in the past three meetings, which the Cowboys have won by a combined eight points. Partly because the Cowboys are the sixth-best passing defense in the NFL (211 YPG), Washington will likely try to control the game by rushing the football. The Redskins rank second in the NFL with 165 rushing YPG led by another exciting rookie, Alfred Morris, who has 869 rushing yards on 4.7 YPC with five touchdowns. Griffin has six rushing TD. The Redskins have rushed for at least 150 yards in four of their past five road games. This ground game has also been a key reason why Washington has zero turnovers in its past three games combined.

Cowboys QB Tony Romo was able to bring his team back from a double-digit, fourth-quarter deficit against the Browns last week, winning 23-20 in overtime. Although he's had a subpar season (7.4 YPA, 13 TD, 13 INT), Romo expects to throw ball all over the weak Washington secondary. The Redskins are allowing 289 passing YPG, which ranks fourth-to-last in the NFL. Romo has a pair of talented receivers in Miles Austin (727 rec. yds) and Dez Bryant (735 rec. yds), who is coming off a 12-catch, 145-yard performance against Cleveland. TE Jason Witten leads the team in both receptions (73) and targets (99). The running game is a big problem though, as both of Dallas' top running backs, DeMarco Murray (foot) and Felix Jones (knee), are expected to miss Thursday's contest. That leaves rookie Lance Dunbar as the main running back. Dunbar has just 20 carries this season, gaining just 67 yards (3.4 YPC) with zero touchdowns. Washington's rushing defense ranks seventh in the league at 95 YPG allowed, so the game plan for the Cowboys figures to be one heavily favoring the pass.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24859 Followers:33
11/22/2012 09:39 AM

NFL Week 13 Preview: Patriots at Jets

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (7-3)

at NEW YORK JETS (4-6)


Kickoff: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: New England -6.5, Total: 48

One of the most bitter NFL rivalries continues on Thursday night when the red-hot Patriots make the short trip to New Jersey to battle the Jets.

In Week 7, the Jets played arguably their best game of the season in New England, but blew a late lead and eventually lost 29-26 in overtime. They outgained the Patriots 403-281 and Mark Sanchez threw for 328 yards. Tom Brady led field goal drives at the end of regulation and in OT. Brady has had a couple of duds in New Jersey since Rex Ryan took over in New York. He has a 79.7 passer rating over three games against Ryan’s Jets, but he picked them apart last November, throwing for 329 yards and 3 TD in a 37-16 Patriots blowout. He’ll be without TE Rob Gronkowski (broken arm), but should get TE Aaron Hernandez (ankle) back on the field.

Can the Jets slow down the Patriots on Thursday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

New England is riding a four-game win streak (2-2 ATS) thanks to an offense averaging 42.5 PPG during this stretch. Brady has a 111.3 passer rating during this string, throwing 11 TD and 0 INT. Brady is 17-5 as a starter in his career against the Jets, throwing for 5,314 yards (242 YPG), 32 TD and just 11 INT. In the Week 7 overtime victory, he connected on 26-of-42 throws for 259 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT. Brady and his talented receiving corps, led by Wes Welker (73 rec, 890 yds), is the main reason this offense is so efficient, but the rushing attack has also been strong in 2012 (143 YPG), piling up at least 115 rushing yards in four straight games. Defensively, the Patriots have also been great in stopping the run, with just 99 rushing YPG allowed. A big reason New England hasn't lost in four games is that the club has turned the ball over just once during the win streak, posting three straight turnover-free games.

The Jets have dropped five of their past seven games, including three of four on their home turf. Although they beat St. Louis handily last week, 27-13, they generated only 289 total yards including 3.0 yards per carry. Starting with the New England game, New York is averaging a subpar 105 rushing YPG on 3.6 YPC over the past four games. Sanchez played well the last time he faced New England, but is just 2-5 in seven regular-season starts versus the Pats, throwing for only 212 YPG on 7.0 YPA with 9 TD and 10 INT. For the season, Sanchez has thrown for a mere 6.5 YPA, 11 TD and 9 INT, as he ranks 29th in passer rating. But after committing 13 turnovers in his first nine games, Sanchez (and the entire Jets team) had a turnover-free game last week. Ball protection is of the upmost importance, as New England leads the AFC with 27 takeaways, returning two interceptions for touchdowns last week.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24859 Followers:33
11/22/2012 09:41 AM

NFL odds: Week 12 opening line report

Your sweat pants are washed and pressed. Sixty percent of your fridge is home to a 20-pound half-frozen turkey. And you just tossed a few extra bucks into your sportsbook bankroll. It could only mean one thing: Thanksgiving is almost here.

The NFL is serving up triple helpings of action on Turkey Day, starting with Houston at Detroit at 12:30 p.m. ET, followed by Washington at Dallas at 4:15 p.m. ET, and finally New England at New York at 8:20 p.m. ET.

“Traditionally, we’re high on favorites with the Thanksgiving games. Everyone is home and everyone is betting,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service, The Sports Club, told Covers. “This year, the games are a little more competitive but we’re still high on the favorites.”

Houston Texans at Detroit Lions (+3, 49)

Korner was baffled by what he saw at some of the online shops, when early spreads had Houston favored by only three points. The Texans were nearly knocked off by the lowly Jaguars Sunday but Houston – at 9-1 SU – is still one of the best teams in the NFL.

“Detroit is just 4-6 and not the team everyone expected this season,” says Korner, who sent out a suggested spread of Houston -6. “I don’t understand why this came out at three. Come Thursday, who do you think everyone is going to be playing?”

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 47)

The Cowboys, coming off a nail-biting overtime win against Cleveland, turn around to face a classic rival on Thanksgiving Day. The Sports Club sent out Dallas -4.5 while early lines offshore opened with America’s Team as a 3.5-point home fave.

“Washington is a live dog here,” says Korner. “That win was great for Dallas and the Cowboys do have their following, but I don’t think (the spread) will go either way. It should settle in around three.”

New England Patriots at New York Jets (+5.5, 49)

The Sports Club sent out a suggested spread of New England -7 for this AFC East battle, but the injury to star TE Rob Gronkowski (out 4-6 weeks with broken forearm) has dropped the spread as low as -5.

Korner says big money could be controlling this line, waiting to see how low it can go before buying back New England.

“Whoever is controlling this move definitely doesn’t want New England -7.5 come Thursday,” he says. “I think it went down because of Gronk (who Korner says is worth a point to the spread), and he’s a difference maker. But it’s a good excuse to take this line down. There won’t be any Jets money coming in Thursday.”

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants (-1, 49.5)

Online books opened New York as a slim home favorite in this rematch of the NFC Divisional showdown from last year. However, Korner disagrees with making the Giants the favorites and expects this line to easily move to Green Bay before Sunday.

“I was the only one of our guys who had Green Bay favored,” he says. “The Giants aren’t playing well, Eli hasn’t been sharp, and this is a revenge spot for the Packers. One bet can move this spread over to Green Bay.”

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24859 Followers:33
11/22/2012 09:43 AM

NFL Thanksgiving Day betting cheat sheet

Thanksgiving is about taking a break to reflect with family and friends, but it’s also a time to get some tasty bets down on NFL action.

If you’ve been too busy jumping through the Thanksgiving hoops to handicap Thursday’s slate - don’t worry. Our NFL Thanksgiving Day cheat sheet comes to the rescue like gravy on dry turkey.

Houston Texans at Detroit Lions (+3, 50.5)

The Texans are coming off a near-upset to Jacksonville Sunday and visit the Lions for their first Thanksgiving Day game in franchise history. Detroit has dropped back-to-back games and hasn’t fared well on Thanksgiving Day in recent years, going 0-8 SU and ATS since 2004.

Detroit will be without WR Titus Young, who is being benched for behavior issues, leaving the Lions very thin at receiver. Veteran wideout Nate Burleson is already out for the season, allowing opponents to double-up on star WR Calvin Johnson.

Tight end Brandon Pettigrew could see more passes his way and RB Mikel Leshoure may have to shoulder a heavier load on the ground, in order to take pressure off QB Matt Stafford Thursday.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 48)

This classic NFC East rivalry has been dominated by the underdog in recent seasons, with the pup going 22-6 ATS in the past 29 meeting between the Redskins and Cowboys. Dallas won both encounters with Washington last season but failed to cover in those – and the last four meetings with the Skins overall.

The Cowboys are another Thanksgiving Day mainstay and - unlike the Lions - they have thrived on the holiday, going 8-3 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2001. That goes against Dallas’ current ATS slide at home, where it has failed to cover in its last seven home games overall, including last week’s OT win against the Browns.

Washington rookie QB Robert Griffin III won’t be in an unfamiliar atmosphere at Cowboys Stadium Thursday. During his college career at Baylor, the former Heisman winner played twice in the $1 billion venue. The Redskins have lost all three trips to “Jerry’s World” and are 0-6 SU all-time versus Dallas on Thanksgiving Day.

New England Patriots at New York Jets (+7, 48)

No wonder this spread is back up to a touchdown after dipping as low as 5.5 earlier in the week. The road team is 20-8-1 ATS in the last 29 meetings between these clubs, including New York’s near upset of New England at Gillette Stadium in Week 7.

The Patriots won’t have tight end Rob Gronkowski for this Thanksgiving Day game but fellow TE Aaron Hernandez could return to action after missing time with an ankle injury. New England could hand the bulk of the playbook over the rushing tandem of Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen, who have quietly given the Pats the fifth-best ground attack in the NFL (142.9 yards per game).

New York’s defense has been gashed on the ground this season, allowing foes to rumble for 141.7 yards an outing – 30th in the league. Gang Green allowed the Rams to run for 124 yards on just 20 carries in last week’s win in St. Louis (6.2 yards per carry), and watched New England rush for 131 yards in Week 7. The Patriots’ no-huddle attack will drain the Jets’ battery if they line up quick and keep to the ground.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24859 Followers:33
11/22/2012 09:44 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 12

New England at NY Jets
The Patriots look to build on their 7-3-1 ATS record in their last 11 road games against teams with a losing home record. New England is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Patriots favored by 14 1/2. Dunkel Pick: New England (-6 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 22

Game 103-104: Houston at Detroit (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 138.139; Detroit 136.551
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Houston by 3 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+3 1/2); Under

Game 105-106: Washington at Dallas (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 131.590; Dallas 131.544
Dunkel Line: Even; 51
Vegas Line: Dallas by 3 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3 1/2); Over

Game 107-108: New England at NY Jets (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 142.851; NY Jets 128.310
Dunkel Line: New England by 14 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: New England by 6 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: New England (-6 1/2); Over

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24859 Followers:33
11/22/2012 09:46 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 12

Thursday, November 22

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HOUSTON (9 - 1) at DETROIT (4 - 6) - 11/22/2012, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in dome games since 1992.
HOUSTON is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 32-54 ATS (-27.4 Units) in November games since 1992.
DETROIT is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 29-48 ATS (-23.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (4 - 6) at DALLAS (5 - 5) - 11/22/2012, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.
DALLAS is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
DALLAS is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 4-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (7 - 3) at NY JETS (4 - 6) - 11/22/2012, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 150-111 ATS (+27.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 76-53 ATS (+17.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 44-24 ATS (+17.6 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 3-3 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-2 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24859 Followers:33
11/22/2012 09:47 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 12

Texans (9-1) @ Lions (4-6)—Short week plus travel for Houston team that has 3-game division lead with six to play, but is also playing for home field in playoffs. Wade Phillips coached in Dallas, so he should know how to deal with short prep time for Turkey Day game. Schaub passed for 504 yards in dome last week (8.8 ypa) after they struggled to 13-6 win in elements in Chicago week before (88 PY), so home field means more to them than most. Texans are 4-0 on road, with all wins by 6+ points; they covered seven of last ten tries as a road favorite. Detroit lost last five Turkey Day games, allowing average of 40 ppg; they lost to division rivals last two weeks, allowing 34-24 points. Lions are 15-10-2 vs spread in last 27 games vs AFC opponents, 1-1 this year; since start of LY, they’re 0-2 as home underdogs. AFC South non-divisional favorites are 5-2 vs spread, 1-1 on road. Four of last five Texan games in a dome, three of last four Detroit games went over total.

Redskins (4-6) @ Cowboys (5-5)—RGIII returns to Texas (went to college at Baylor) with Redskin squad that snapped 3-game skid with 31-6 rout of Eagles last week; Skins are 2-3 on road, 3-1 as road underdogs, losing away games by 3-4-15 (Steelers) points. Dallas was gifted with OT win last week; 10 of their 30 first downs came via Cleveland penalties. Cowboys are 3-14 vs spread in last 17 games as home favorite, 0-3 this year; they’re 2-2 at home, beating Bucs by 6, Browns by 3. Pokes led at halftime in one of last seven games, but they’ve also only turned ball over once last three weeks (+2) after having 19 giveaways in first seven games (-11). Redskins scored 40-28-23 points in three games on artificial turf (1-2), with underdog covering all three games- they’ve run ball for 151-169 yards in last two games. Home teams are 1-5 vs spread in NFC East divisional games; home favorites are 1-3. Last three Washington games stayed under the total.

Patriots (7-3) @ Jets (4-6)—Key indicator for Jets is 3rd down conversions; they’re 41-87 (47.1%) on 3rd down in games they’ve played well (4-2), 13-53 (24.5%) in four stinkers they played, losing all four by average of 23 points. In three of Jets’ four wins, they had +3 or +4 turnover ratio; Dolphins are only team they’ve beaten (23-20, OT) without winning TO ratio. Patriots are just trying to outscore people; in last two games, foes converted 15-25 on 3rd down, scoring 31-24 points, but NE scored 37-59 points. Absence of Gronkowski (broken arm) is a problem. Jets are 2-3 at home; since ’08, they’ve covered three of four as a home underdog. Since 2003, Pats are 16-6-1 vs spread as road favorite in divisional games; they’re 2-2 in true road games this year (beat Rams in London), with both losses by point (Ravens/Seattle), wins by 21-24. Home teams are 2-5 vs spread in AFC East divisional games; home dogs are 0-2. Last eight New England games went over, three of last four Jet games stayed under.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24859 Followers:33
11/22/2012 09:48 AM

NFL

Week 12

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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 22

12:30 PM
HOUSTON vs. DETROIT
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 4-12-1 ATS in its last 17 games
Detroit is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games

4:15 PM
WASHINGTON vs. DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Washington
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Washington

8:20 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. NY JETS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England's last 9 games on the road
NY Jets are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games when playing at home against New England
NY Jets are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games when playing at home against New England

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: