cnotes Posts:27327 Followers:33
11/10/2012 11:55 PM

NFL Week 10 Preview: Broncos at Panthers

DENVER BRONCOS (5-3)

at CAROLINA PANTHERS (2-6)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Denver -4, Total: 47

Sizzling-hot Denver tries to extend its winning streak when it pays a visit to Carolina on Sunday afternoon.

The Broncos have won three in a row overall and two straight on the road, SU and ATS. QB Peyton Manning has looked like the Peyton of old over the past five games, completing 76% of his passes for 316 YPG, including 15 TD and just 3 INT during that span. The Panthers’ season was going down the toilet before an upset win in Washington last week. Their porous defense had its best effort since Week 1, holding the Redskins to 337 yards of offense and 13 points. QB Cam Newton managed the game well, but was underwhelming again, completing 13-for-23 throws for 201 yards— but no turnovers—against Washington’s league-worst secondary.

Can the Broncos pull out another impressive victory? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Manning hasn't faced the Panthers since 2007, but his numbers against them in two starts are pretty pedestrian for his standards: 57.8% completions, 548 passing yards, 3 TD and 1 INT. For the first time since 2004, Manning has tossed 3 TD in five straight games, helping him to take the NFL lead in both passer rating (108.6) and completion percentage (69.5%). Manning has quickly built a great rapport with both of his starting receivers, Eric Decker and a Demaryius Thomas. Decker has 7 TD grabs in his past five games while Thomas has 95 receiving YPG for the season, good for 4th-most in the NFL. Decker has been bothered by a thigh injury, but he is expected to start on Sunday. While Denver's passing attack is in great shape, the ground game has been inconsistent, ranking 18th in the league with 107 rushing YPG. In the past three road games, the Broncos have managed just 65 rushing YPG on 2.9 yards per carry. Fumbling has been a huge problem for Denver, as it has lost 10 fumbles already -- K.C. is the only NFL team with more (15). Defensively, the Broncos rank in the top half of the NFL in both passing defense (221 YPG, 10th in league) and rushing defense (104 YPG, 12th in NFL). They have forced 12 turnovers this year, but half of those came three weeks ago in San Diego when Philip Rivers had six miscues.

Newton has not thrown the football well during his team's three-game home losing streak, completing just 51% of his passes for 616 yards (6.4 YPA), 1 TD and 4 INT. It would help if he had the kind of running game the Panthers showed off last season, when they ranked third in the NFL with 151 rushing YPG. This year, they have just 116 rushing YPG (12th in league), as the team tinkers with the workload of both DeAngelo Williams (3.7 YPC) and Jonathan Stewart (3.8 YPC). The return of No. 2 WR Brandon LaFell, who sat out last week's game with a concussion, will surely take attention away from top wideout Steve Smith and give Newton another reliable target. The defense is making strides, especially in terms of pressuring the quarterback, tallying 10 sacks in the past two games. The Panthers also have seven takeaways in the past four games, something they will need to do more of against a turnover-prone Broncos club.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27327 Followers:33
11/10/2012 11:57 PM

NFL Week 10 Preview: Falcons at Saints

ATLANTA FALCONS (8-0)

at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (3-5)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: New Orleans -2.5, Total: 53.5

The Falcons are not only trying to keep their unblemished record intact on Sunday in New Orleans, but they are also seeking revenge from the Saints recent dominance in this series.

The Falcons are looking to snap a four-game losing streak against the Saints. Their last trip to New Orleans was particularly ugly, with Drew Brees and the offense hanging 45 points on Atlanta in a 45-16 Saints victory. The unbeaten Falcons have a different look this year, with a much more wide-open offense and new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan’s unique looks on defense. The Saints had struggled to contain anyone all season until the Eagles came to town with their decimated offensive line on Monday night. The Atlanta offense poses a much bigger challenge with the team’s many weapons.

Can the Falcons stay unbeaten with a road win at rival New Orleans? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Atlanta has a great passing offense (278 YPG, 8th in the NFL), and will certainly try to throw the football all over New Orleans' secondary allowing 295 passing YPG (4th-most in NFL). QB Matt Ryan is just 2-5 in his career versus New Orleans, but he attempted 52 passes in both meetings last year, racking up 724 yards and 3 TD. He has frequently targeted all three of his great receivers -- WR Roddy White, WR Julio Jones and TE Tony Gonzalez -- but he may look at White just a little more than usual. In five career games in New Orleans, White has 578 receiving yards (116 per game) and three scores. Jones also had a great game at the Superdome as a rookie last year, catching eight passes for 128 yards and a touchdown. The Falcons don't have to be one-dimensional though, because the Saints have an even more generous rushing defense, allowing a league-high 177 rushing YPG. This is great news for Michael Turner, who had just 11 carries in last year's lopsided loss in New Orleans. A closer game should allow him to post numbers similar to what he did in 2009 and 2010 at the Superdome when he carried the ball 50 times for 265 yards (5.3 YPC) and 2 TD in those two games. There are no significant injuries to the Falcons offense, but three key defensive players are all questionable in LB Sean Weatherspoon (ankle), S Charles Mitchell (calf) and DT Peria Jerry (knee).

Brees leads the NFL with 2,549 passing yards (319 per game) and only Aaron Rodgers has surpassed his 22 TD. Brees continues to lean heavily on his top two receivers, WR Marques Colston (626 rec yds, 6 TD) and TE Jimmy Graham (387 rec yds, 5 TD). Both have had plenty of success against Atlanta's secondary, which currently ranks 14th in the NFL with 229 passing YPG allowed. Colston had 15 catches for 194 yards and a touchdown in last year's series, while Graham has found the end zone in all three career meetings with the Falcons, totaling 150 receiving yards. The Saints have the third-worst rushing offense in the league (81 YPG), but they could find some holes in Atlanta's 24th-ranked rushing defense (128 YPG). RB Darren Sproles (foot) will not play, but Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram and Chris Ivory combined for 136 rushing yards on 23 carries (5.9 YPC) in last week's win over Philadelphia. Before committing two turnovers against the Eagles, New Orleans had just four giveaways over its previous five games. The Falcons have not forced a turnover in two straight games, so ball protection shouldn't be a big issue in this game.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27327 Followers:33
11/10/2012 11:59 PM

NFL Week 10 Preview: Texans at Bears

HOUSTON TEXANS (7-1)

at CHICAGO BEARS (7-1)


Kickoff: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -1.5, Total: 41

A pair of one-loss teams collide on Sunday night when Houston visits Chicago.

This matchup will pit two of the NFL’s elite defenses, a Texans team that hasn’t lost SU on the road, and a Bears team that’s unbeaten SU at home. Chicago continues to forcean incredible number of turnovers -- 28 takeaways through eight games -- including five more in Tennessee last week. Houston, which runs a conservative, run-heavy offense, has just six giveaways on the season. The Texans have been outstanding defensively this year, allowing 20 points or more than 325 yards of offense in a game just twice.

Which team will improve to 8-1 on the season? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Texans RB Arian Foster continues to carry his offense with 770 rushing yards (5th in NFL) and a league-high 11 total touchdowns. Houston's 138 rushing YPG ranks eighth in the league, but backup RB Ben Tate (hamstring) might not play. TE Owen Daniels (back) and WR Kevin Walter (groin) are also listed as questionable, but both are expected to play and help out QB Matt Schaub. The Houston signal caller has been locked in all year, posting a 96.8 passer rating with 1,918 passing yards (7.7 YPA), 12 TD and just four interceptions. But after absorbing just three sacks over the first five games, Schaub has been dropped seven times in the past three contests. His top wideout Andre Johnson has been outstanding over the past three weeks with 25 catches for 279 yards, but he has a tough matchup against CB Charles Tillman on Sunday. Defensively, the Texans have been outstanding against both the run (82 YPG, 2nd in NFL) and pass (204 YPG, 4th in league). They have not allowed a single rushing touchdown all season, and DE J.J. Watt has been unbelievable with 10.5 sacks and 10 passes defensed.

The Bears are looking for a seventh straight win for the first time since 2006, but only one of their victories so far has come against a team with a winning record. The league-high 28 takeaways and seven defensive touchdowns have aided the Bears in giving up just 15.0 PPG (2nd in NFL). They also have 25 defensive sacks (3rd in league), but the offense has allowed 28 sacks (3rd-most in NFL). Despite hitting the turf so often, QB Jay Cutler has played very well in his past five games, throwing for 1,132 yards (226 per game), 9 TD and 2 INT. But he has been very reliant on just one man, WR Brandon Marshall, who has 59 of the team's 149 catches (41%) and 797 of Chicago's 1,774 passing yards (45%). Houston defensive coordinator Wade Phillips has said his club will double-team Marshall on every single play. If that happens, the Bears should be able run the football with Matt Forte, who has 376 rushing yards on 5.3 YPC in his past four games. He's also a capable receiver with 20 catches for 179 yards this season.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27327 Followers:33
11/11/2012 12:01 AM

NFL Week 10 Preview: Chiefs at Steelers

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (1-7)

at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (5-3)


Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Pittsburgh -12, Total: 42

The surging Steelers seek a fourth straight victory on Monday night when they host a Chiefs team that has dropped five in a row.

At this point, the Chiefs are just looking to not get embarrassed. They turned it over four more times in their 31-13 loss at San Diego last Thursday night, giving them 29 giveaways on the season. QB Matt Cassel, who will start in place of injured Brady Quinn (concussion), has committed 18 turnovers in his seven games. The Steelers have dominated their last three opponents offensively, two of them among the league’s most high-powered teams (Washington and New York Giants). They’ve allowed 207 total YPG during their three-game winning streak. Offensively, they’ve been excellent on third downs all season, converting a league-leading 51.3%.

Can the Steelers cover the huge number on Monday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

The Chiefs have not held a single lead during regulation this year, as their lone win came in overtime. They haven't surpassed 20 points in any of their past five games, scoring just 65 points (13.0 PPG) over this stretch. They have also failed to gain 300 yards in any of their past three contests. Cassel has a dreadful 68.9 passer rating this year, throwing for 6 TD and 11 INT. But he did have a strong game against the Steelers the only time he's faced them wearing a Chiefs uniform, completing 15-of-30 passes for 248 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT in 2009. But for Kansas City to have any shot at winning this, RB Jamaal Charles will need a huge workload. In Week 5 against another AFC North team, Baltimore, he carried the ball 31 times for 140 yards. But in three games since, he has just 29 attempts combined for 83 yards (2.9 YPC). Head coach Romeo Crennel shed his defensive coordinator role earlier this week, leaving Gary Gibbs in charge of the league's third-worst scoring defense (30.0 PPG). The Chiefs are actually above average in passing defense (222 YPG, ranked 11th), but have surrendered 126 rushing YPG (23rd in NFL). In addition to Crennel leaving his DC post, Kansas City also parted ways with CB Stanford Routt, waiving him just eight games after signing him to a 3-year, $18M deal. He will be replaced by Javier Arenas, who has been upgraded to probable despite a head injury. The news isn't so good for DE Glenn Dorsey (calf), who is doubtful for Monday night.

The Steelers are riding high after erasing a 10-point, fourth-quarter deficit in last week's 24-20 win over the Giants. Pittsburgh remained the NFL's top defense (263 total YPG) by allowing minus-9 yards in fourth quarter, a time when New York QB Eli Manning usually takes over. Great second-half defense is nothing new for the Steelers, who have given up just 5.0 PPG after halftime during their three-game win surge. On the offensive side of the ball, the Steelers have been winning with a surprising running game that has averaged 155 YPG in the past three games, more than doubling the 75 rushing YPG from their first five contests. Isaac Redman rumbled for 147 yards on 26 carries (5.7 YPC) last week with both Jonathan Dwyer (quad) and Rashard Mendenhall (Achilles) out. Pittsburgh expects all three backs to play on Monday, and head coach Mike Tomlin says that he'll simply use whichever rusher is most effective. Although QB Ben Roethlisberger won't have the services of starting WR Antonio Brown (ankle), he should still find success through the air. He has thrown for 2,203 yards (7.4 YPA), 16 TD and 4 INT so far this season. Although he was held to 193 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT in last year's 13-9 win in K.C., he has been unstoppable at Heinz Field. In his past 16 home games, Roethlisberger has tossed 31 TD and just 6 INT (104.6 passer rating).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27327 Followers:33
11/11/2012 12:03 AM

Week 10 Tips

November 10, 2012

It was a week to forget for the sportsbooks last Sunday as the favorites cleaned up in the NFL. Will things change in Week 10 with the underdogs coming back to life? So far, the Colts rolled the hapless Jaguars on Thursday night, but there are 12 opportunities for the 'dogs to rebound on Sunday, as we'll take a look at the chances of home teams receiving points.

Giants (-3 ½, 49) at Bengals - 1:00 PM EST

Cincinnati gets its second dose of a Manning brother in two weeks after Peyton beat the Bengals last Sunday, 31-23 to cash as five-point road 'chalk.' Now, the Bengals get to deal with last season's Super Bowl champs with Eli in town, after the Giants squandered a 20-10 fourth quarter lead in a 24-20 home defeat to the Steelers as 3 ½-point favorites.

New York hasn't lost consecutive games all seasons, but Tom Coughlin's club owns a 1-4 ATS record when laying at least 3 ½ points. The Giants have allowed at least 23 points in each of the last three contests, while the 'over' hit just once in that span in the shootout victory at Dallas in Week 8. New York has put together a solid 5-2 ATS record against the AFC on the road since 2008, but the G-Men were listed as a favorite just twice in that span.

The Bengals failed to step up against playoff-caliber competition last season, in spite of qualifying for the postseason. The same story is arising for Cincinnati in 2012 after falling at home to the Steelers and Broncos, but the Bengals have also mixed in losses this season to the Browns and Dolphins. Under Marvin Lewis, the Bengals have cashed 11 of the last 17 times in the role of a home underdog.

Broncos (-4, 47) at Panthers - 1:00 PM EST

Carolina finally found a way to close last Sunday, as the Panthers beat the Redskins, 21-13 as three-point road 'dogs. The 'Cats return home, looking for their first victory at Bank of America Stadium since a Week 2 triumph over New Orleans. The task won't be easy for Cam Newton's Panthers, facing a Broncos' team that is on fire with three consecutive victories.

Since falling behind 24-0 at San Diego in Week 6, the Broncos have outscored their opponents, 100-37 in the last 10 quarters, while cashing in each of the last three contests. Peyton Manning threw two interceptions at Cincinnati last week, but the former MVP is getting back to that status by throwing three touchdown passes in each of the last games. Denver is riding a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS record as a favorite this season, while Manning owns a 9-3 ATS record as road 'chalk' since 2009.

For the exception of a Week 3 blowout loss to the Giants, the Panthers have hung around every week, but have had problems finishing off victories. Before beating Washington, Ron Rivera's squad dropped four straight games by five points or less, including two home losses when holding the lead in the second half against Seattle and Dallas.

Falcons (-2 ½, 53 ½) at Saints - 1:00 PM EST

Atlanta remains as the league's lone unbeaten team at 8-0, but the quest for win number nine will be tough heading to the Mercedes-Benz Superdome against the rival Saints. The Falcons survived another scare last Sunday night by holding off the Cowboys at home, 19-13, while managing to make their backers happy with a late field goal to cash as four-point favorites.

The task won't be easy for Mike Smith's club, who has lost five of the last six meetings in New Orleans. The only victory came in overtime in 2010, a 27-24 triumph as three-point underdogs, a catalyst to a 13-3 season and a top seed in the NFC. Atlanta's defense has stepped up this season, limiting five of the last six opponents to 20 points or less, while cashing the 'under' in five of the previous seven contests.

The Saints have struggled from a defensive standpoint all season, allowing 471 yards per game, which ranks dead-last in the league. After losing their first two games at home to the Redskins and Chiefs, New Orleans has rebounded nicely with victories over San Diego and Philadelphia, including a 28-13 rout of the Eagles on Monday. The Saints are listed as a home 'dog for the first time since the final week of the 2008 season when New Orleans lost to Carolina, 33-31.

Lions (-2 ½, 46 ½) at Vikings - 1:00 PM EST

The last time these two teams met in Week 4, Minnesota scored a pair of touchdowns on special teams and knocked off Detroit, 20-13 as 3 ½-point road underdogs. The scene shifts to Minneapolis this Sunday with these two NFC North rivals going in different directions.

Detroit has dug themselves out of a 1-3 hole to even its mark at 4-4 following back-to-back wins over Seattle and Jacksonville. The Lions scored 59 combined points in the last two weeks, after putting up 46 points in the three weeks prior. Jim Schwartz's club is the hottest ATS team recently by cashing in each of the last four games, but the Lions are just 2-4 ATS in his tenure when laying points away from Ford Field.

The Vikings have hit the skids after a 4-1 start by losing three of the last four games, including last week's 30-20 defeat at Seattle. Minnesota will likely be without one of its top weapons in Percy Harvin, who is listed as 'doubtful' with an ankle injury. In Minnesota's last three losses, the defense has been torched by allowing at least 30 points each time, resulting in three 'overs.'

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27327 Followers:33
11/11/2012 12:05 AM

Total Talk - Week 10

November 10, 2012

Week 9 Recap

Betting the ‘chalk’ has been a goldmine for bettors lately and at the same time a nightmare for the sportsbooks. After watching the favorites go 10-4 last weekend, the public loaded up on the Colts this past Thursday and cashed another early holiday gift. One bookmaker, who hasn’t cried publicly with the results, told me that they’re (bettors) just holding our money for us and all things will balance out soon enough. I couldn’t agree with him more.

While sides have been a roller coaster this season, the totals have been as balanced as you can get. The ‘over/under’ went 7-7 last week and the ‘over’ holds a slight lead (67-64-1) on the season. Fortunately for the books, the primetime games have helped them a lot. Including Thursday’s outcome between the Colts and Jaguars (27-10), the ‘under’ has gone 20-9 (69%) in contests played under the lights this season.

Line Moves

The smart money went 1-1 last week with their early bets. Not much line movement on the afternoon games in Week 10, but both of the primetime affairs got hit and coincidentally they follow the trends that we talked about above. Also, weather is expected to be an issue this week as well.

Here are the early moves at CRIS:

Houston at Chicago: Lined opened at 44 and dropped to 39 1/2
Kansas City at Pittsburgh: Line opened at 43 ½ and dropped to 42

Midseason Trends

Every team has played at least eight games, which is a great sample for total players to identify both ‘over’ and ‘under’ clubs. Whether or not those numbers balance out will be seen over the next two months.

(O/U records listed in parenthesis)

Easy-Over

New England (6-2) – The offense can score on anybody and the defense isn’t outstanding. The Pats have seen the ‘over’ cash in six straight.

Kansas City (6-2) – It’s surprising to see the ‘over’ connect at high percentage (75%) here, especially behind an offense that can’t move the ball.

Tampa Bay (6-2) – We’ve seen five straight ‘over’ tickets for the Bucs, who have put up 38, 28, 36 and 42 the last four weeks.

Tennessee (6-2) – Hard to play an ‘under’ with the Titans, who have allowed 30-plus points in seven of their nine games.

Under like Thunder

Arizona (7-2) – Solid defense and an inconsistent offense equals a great ‘under’ combination.

Indianapolis (7-2) – The defense hasn’t played anybody lately but that will change with the Patriots on deck in Week 11.

San Francisco (6-2) – Oddsmakers are starting to post totals in the high thirties for the 49ers, which should’ve been done sooner.

Rematches….

Last week we touched on this seasonal trend and we’re going to hit on it again. Through nine weeks, there have been four divisional rematches and the ‘over’ has gone 3-2 (67%) in these games but if you watched last week’s Baltimore-Cleveland (25-15), you’d probably agree it should stand at 4-1. Anytime you get field goals (6) instead of touchdowns (3), you’re going to see ‘over’ bets get beat, which was the case. Also, the Colts beat the Jaguars 27-10 this past Thursday and that game certainly had a chance to go ‘over’ late as well. This angle could balance out, which wouldn’t be surprising, but there are two other pending matchups in Week 10 and the oddsmakers are expecting points.

Buffalo at New England: Gamblers are looking at a total of 52 and based on the past three meetings between this pair, this number is too low. The Patriots and Bills have combined for 65, 70 and 80 points, the latter coming in the first encounter this season. New England’s team total is sitting at 31 ½ points and it should be noted that it has scored 38, 34, 31, 49 and 52 points in the last five against the Bills. Assuming the Pats eclipse the 30-point plateau, you still need Buffalo to do its job and that’s not a given. In the last three road games, the Bills have scored a total of 31 points. New England is off its bye week and under head coach Bill Belichick, the team is 9-3. Why so successful? The answer is not the offense, rather the defense. The Pats have held 10 opponents to 17 or less during this span and the other two posted 20 and 21.

Detroit at Minnesota: The Vikings beat the Lions 20-13 on Sept. 30 at Ford Field and the combined 33 points fell way short of the closing total (48). Six weeks later, the total has dropped to 46 and you could be scratching your head. Minnesota has allowed 30 or more points in three of its last four games and two of the quarterbacks were rookies. Now you face the Lions attack that has a legit quarterback in Matthew Stafford, who’s helped his offense scored 28 and 31 points the last two weeks. Minnesota’s offense has taken some criticism lately, especially QB Christian Ponder. The heat is fitting but the Vikings have still managed to put up 20 or more points in eight of nine games. Despite the potential for fireworks at the Metrodome, seven of the last 10 in this series has gone ‘under’ the number. Also, Minnesota could be without its most explosive player in Percy Harvin, who is listed as ‘doubtful’ with an ankle injury.

Fearless Predictions

It’s been an up and down season for us and after nearly putting up a bagel (0-3-1) last week, we’re 10 cents ($10) in the red at the midway point. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!

Best Over: Atlanta-New Orleans 53

Best Under: Seattle-New York Jets 38 1/2

Best Team Total: Under 22 Seattle

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 44 Atlanta-New Orleans
Under 47 ½ Seattle-New York Jets
Under 49 Houston-Chicago

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27327 Followers:33
11/11/2012 12:07 AM

Vegas Money Moves - Week 10

November 9, 2012

All it took was one lousy performance on Monday night at New Orleans for the entire world to see, and the Philadelphia Eagles have quickly turned into the betting nation's least wanted team. Even though the Eagles had lost three straight games prior to their stinker in the Bayou, they were still slated to be 2 ½-point home favorites Sunday against the Cowboys, a team they swept in last year's regular season.
Once the game played out with Philly losing 28-13 -- the Eagles basically gave up, the game was reposted as a pick 'em, which was quite an extreme rating drop for a loss. But between large and small money, that line was still way off in the public's eyes as the sour Eagles taste was still lingering from Monday night, because as of Friday afternoon, the Dallas Cowboys had been bet to 2 ½-point road favorites.

So now we have somehow anointed the Cowboys as the model of consistency to rely on. We're all of sudden ready to trust the Cowboys because the Eagles have lost five of their past six games, as though the Cowboys losing four of their past five is any better, right?

While the Cowboys may have lost their past two games against the Giants (24-29) and Falcons (13-19) gaining more style points, the fact remains that these two teams are about the same. They're both terrible.

They're also both in the same boat with controversy. Quarterback Michael Vick's brother tweets that he should be traded. Sean Payton is rumored to be the next Cowboys coach and Jon Gruden is being talked as the 2013 Eagles coach.

This is probably the toughest game of the week to handicap because of all the drama mixed in with bad play, but a five-point swing against the Eagles after one loss suggests that all the value in this one is with the home team.

Here's a look at some of the other moves this week:

-- The Patriots are fresh off a bye and get to go through their annual ritual of beating up the Bills in Foxboro, but Bills money dropped the number from 12 to 11 ½. The Patriots have gone OVER the total in six straight games and the total has been bet from 51 ½ to 52 ½.

-- The Giants have covered 38 of their past 54 road games under Tom Coughlin, but the Bengals have been bet as home 'dogs here. The Giants opened as 6-point favorites and they're currently -4.

-- The Buccaneers have been on a roll offensively and the combination of the Chargers beating no one, despite being 4-4 like the Tampa, and playing in the eastern time zone caused the Bucs to go from 2 ½-point favorites to -3 (-120). The Bucs have also gone over the total in five straight games, but the total dropped from 48 to 47 ½.

-- The Broncos are just starting to catch fire and could possibly be the most bet team over the last three weeks in ticket counts. The Public loves them, and that love has been reciprocated as the Broncos have won and covered their past three games. The Broncos were bet up from 3 ½-point favorites to -4 and already are one of the most bet teams of the week by small money. The public doesn't really care who they play this week, but we'll give the Panthers a little credit here for their home game. Outside of the Week 3 home loss (7-36) to the Giants, they have played well while losing. They broke the funk last week at Washington (21-13), which could be the spark they needed, and probably most of all, the spark Cam Newton needed to gain his confidence back.

-- The Ravens have been bet up from -7 to -7 ½ for their home game against the Raiders. The Ravens covered the spread last week at Cleveland breaking a five-game non-cover streak, despite winning four of those games. Baltimore is a hard team to trust laying a touchdown.

-- The Saints beat the Falcons in both games last season and they've been in a groove lately. The Falcons have remained -2 ½ all week with good two-way action.

-- The Lions have won three out of the past four games and last week we finally saw them put away a team, beating the Jaguars 31-14. The Vikings won 20-13 at Detroit in Week 3, but have lost three of their past four games. The Lions opened as -2 ½-point road favorites and have been bet up to -3 (EVEN).

-- The Seahawks opened as 6 ½-point home favorites against the Jets, but despite being 4-0 ATS at home this season, Jets money has dropped the game to 6.

-- The 49ers opened -12 for their home game against the well rested Rams. The 49ers are currently -11.5 with a total that dropped from 39 to 38 ½.

-- The game of the week is Sunday night with two 7-1 teams squaring off. We have the No. 3 ranked defense of the Texans traveling to Chicago against the Bears No. 5 defense. The Bears opened up a low -1.5 and it has remained there. Because of possible rain and wind coming into play, the total has dropped from 42 to 40 ½.

-- As further evidence that Monday night isn't what it used to be, we have the awful Chiefs getting 12 ½-points at Pittsburgh. The game opened at -13 ½ on Sunday night. The total has dropped from 43 to 42.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27327 Followers:33
11/11/2012 12:10 AM

NFL poolies betting cheat sheet: Week 10

Denver at Carolina (4, 47)

Peyton Manning and the AFC West-leading Broncos hit the road seeking a fourth straight win against Cam Newton and the Panthers, who ended a five-game losing streak last week. Manning, the league's highest-rated passer, has thrown three touchdowns in five straight games after leading Denver to a 31-23 win over Cincinnati last Sunday. The Broncos are averaging 31.6 points over their last five contests and have outscored opponents 100-37 over the last 10 quarters. Denver has played over the total in six of its last seven road games.

San Diego at Tampa Bay (-3, 47)

Tampa Bay scored more than 22 points just once in its first four games, going 1-3 in the process. Following their bye week, the Buccaneers have won three of four contests, scoring 28 points in the loss while registering at least 36 in each victory. A big reason for the recent offensive outburst is the exceptional play of RB Doug Martin. The rookie is averaging 5.2 yards per carry and exploded for 251 yards off 25 carries with four TDs against Oakland last week. The Bucs have played over the total in their last five games.

Tennessee at Miami (-6, 44)

Titans QB Jake Locker has been cleared for contact for the first time since dislocating his non-throwing shoulder on Sept. 30 and is expected to start. Team owner Bud Adams said his team was "grossly outcoached and outplayed" after the Titans were destroyed by the Bears last week and detailed that everyone on the roster was "on notice" following the loss. Miami saw its three-game winning streak halted in a 23-20 setback to Indianapolis last week, but rookie signal-caller Ryan Tannehill continues to impress and hasn't committed a turnover since Sept. 30 (98 pass attempts). The Dolphins have played under the total in their last four games overall.

Buffalo at New England (-12, 52.5)

Surprisingly, the Bills waged a gritty battle with AFC-leading Houston before falling 21-9 last week. After the dust settled, Buffalo was held without a touchdown for the third time in the past four games. Tom Brady and the Pats have revved things up, scoring 180 points in their last five games, including a 45-point outburst across the pond against the Rams prior to their bye week. New England has already beaten the Bills 52-28 this season and has now taken 17 of the last 18 meetings in the series. The Patriots are just 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.

Oakland at Baltimore (-9.5, 47)

The Raiders, who rank 31st in the NFL in rushing, could be without their top two running backs when they visit Baltimore on Sunday afternoon. Both Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson are dealing with ankle sprains and are questionable, leaving third-string RB Taiwan Jones at the top of the depth chart. Baltimore has won 14 straight regular-season home games, the longest current streak in the NFL. But more concerning is the fact that QB Joe Flacco has been held to under 200 yards passing in three of the last four games. The Ravens are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.

N.Y. Giants at Cincinnati (3.5, 49)

Eli Manning saw his streak of 25 consecutive 200-yard passing games end at Dallas on Oct. 28 and he followed that up by throwing for a season-low 125 yards in a loss to the Steelers last Sunday. The Bengals blew a 14-point lead to Denver last week for their fourth consecutive defeat - and third in a row at home. One reason for their skid is an increasingly one-dimensional offense and the failure of the running game. BenJarvus Green-Ellis has yet to rush for 100 yards and has topped out at 69 yards during the four-game losing streak. The Bengals are 0-4 ATS during the slump.

Atlanta at New Orleans (1, 53.5)

New Orleans' defense has been dreadful, ranking last in the league in total yards allowed. The Saints have surrendered at least 421 total yards in every game and their porous pass defense will have its hands full against QB Matt Ryan and a loaded receiving corps that includes Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez. Atlanta is 8-0 for the first time in franchise history but has won five games this season by seven points or fewer. The Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.

Detroit at Minnesota (1, 46)

Detroit has won two straight and three of four since a 20-13 home loss to the Vikings on Sept. 30 left the team at 1-3 and mired in a three-game losing streak. Conversely, Minnesota has seen a promising 4-1 start unravel with three losses in its last four games, including back-to-back defeats to Tampa Bay and Seattle in which the Vikings have surrendered a combined 76 points. Minnesota's offense continues to go sideways after Christian Ponder threw for only 63 yards and an interception in last week's 30-20 loss in Seattle. The Lions have covered in four consecutive games and the Vikings are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four contests.

N.Y. Jets at Seattle (-6, 38.5)

Seattle’s home-field advantage is keeping it in the playoff hunt in the NFC. The Seahawks are 4-0 at CenturyLink Field, including tight wins over the New England Patriots and the Green Bay Packers. After dropping two in a row on the road, Seattle came back to “The Link” last weekend and put together its best offensive performance of the campaign in a 30-20 win over Minnesota. Hurricane Sandy has left some Jets players and staffers without power for over a week, a significant distraction for the team during its bye week. The Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.

Dallas at Philadelphia (1, 44)

Michael Vick was sacked seven times as the Eagles suffered their fourth consecutive setback with a 28-13 loss to New Orleans on Monday night. Although Vick has come under fire this season, he carved up Rob Ryan's defense on both occasions last season, completing 39 of 60 passes with four TDs and improved to 3-0 as an Eagles starter against the Cowboys. Dallas QB Tony Romo strained his back on the final play of a loss to the Falcons last week, but is expected to be ready for Sunday's contest. The Cowboys have played under the total in seven of their last eight road games.

St. Louis at San Francisco (-11.5, 38.5)

The Rams hope the early return of Danny Amendola (clavicle) can spark their sputtering offense. It was feared he would miss the rest of the season but the gritty receiver intends on playing Sunday. San Francisco has won four of its last five games and hasn’t allowed a touchdown in any of the victories. Defensively, the Niners are allowing just 12.9 ppg - tops in the league. San Francisco has taken seven of the last eight meetings and is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 home games.

Houston at Chicago (-1, 40)

The Bears have rolled to six consecutive wins - their lone loss came against the Packers - on the strength of a dominant ball-hawking defense. Chicago has forced 28 turnovers and is plus-16 in that department. Houston's only loss came when it committed three turnovers - half of its season total - so the Texans will need to take care of the ball against the opportunistic Chicago defense. The Texans are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.

Kansas City at Pittsburgh (-11.5, 42)

Pittsburgh's defense ranks first in the league in total yards (262.6) and against the pass (174.0). The Steelers limited the Giants to a season-low 182 yards of total offense last week despite the absence of Pro Bowl safety Troy Polamalu, who will miss his fifth straight game with a calf injury. Kansas City is mired in a five-game losing streak and has not held a lead in regulation this season. The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS during the losing skid.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27327 Followers:33
11/11/2012 11:41 AM

Falcons at Saints: What bettors need to know

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (1, 53.5)

The first half of the season has proven to represent a changing of the guard in the NFC South, but the surging New Orleans Saints will try to say something about that when they host the undefeated Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. The Falcons - the last remaining unbeaten team in the league - have solidified their status as the division front-runner, but the Saints are trying to work their way back into the playoff picture. New Orleans has won three of its past four games after starting the season with four straight losses.

Atlanta is 8-0 for the first time in franchise history and is just the 15th team to start 8-0 since the NFL went to a 16-game schedule in 1978. The Saints have won 10 of the past 12 meetings against the Falcons, which is a big reason they've won the NFC South in two of the past three seasons and three of the past six. That includes a 45-16 blowout in the most recent contest on Dec. 26, 2011, in New Orleans, a game in which Drew Brees broke Dan Marino's single-season passing mark.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Falcons -1, O/U 53.5.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (8-0): The Falcons have won five games this season by seven points or less, and they are 27-10 in games decided by one score during coach Mike Smith's tenure. The offense had its lowest-scoring output of the season in last week's 19-13 home win against Dallas, and Atlanta might need more with the defense getting a stern test from the Saints, especially with linebacker Sean Weatherspoon missing a second consecutive game with a sprained right ankle.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (3-5): New Orleans' defense has been dreadful, ranking last in the league in total yards allowed. The Saints have surrendered at least 421 total yards in every game. The porous pass defense will have its hands full against quarterback Matt Ryan and a loaded receiving corps that includes Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez. The Saints' offense has not been as prolific as in past years, and running back Darren Sproles is out at least four weeks after hand surgery.

TRENDS:

* Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
* Over is 4-0 in their last four meetings in New Orleans.
* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Over is 9-1 in Saints’ last 10 vs. NFC foes.
* Saints are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Atlanta is 29-0 when QB Matt Ryan starts and has a rating of 100 or higher, and the team is 15-0 when he has at least three touchdown passes.

2. Brees, who has a passing touchdown in an NFL-record 51 consecutive games, has passed for 300 yards in eight of 12 meetings vs. Atlanta since joining the
Saints.

3. Gonzalez needs one touchdown reception to become the first tight end and eighth player in history with 100.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27327 Followers:33
11/11/2012 11:43 AM

Cowboys at Eagles: What bettors need to know

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (1, 44)

A pair of underachieving NFC East teams will meet in the City of Brotherly Love on Sunday when the Dallas Cowboys pay a visit to the Philadelphia Eagles. Despite lofty expectations, the season is in jeopardy of slipping away for both clubs as they head into this crucial matchup. Philadelphia's beleaguered offensive line bore the brunt of most of the criticism as Michael Vick was sacked seven times and the Eagles suffered their fourth consecutive setback with a 28-13 loss to New Orleans on Monday night.

Dallas certainly isn't dancing in the streets either as it fell short in its bid to unseat undefeated Atlanta last week en route to a 19-13 loss. Tony Romo rebounded from a brutal first half versus the New York Giants to complete 25 of 35 passes for 321 yards and a touchdown versus the Falcons. Romo strained his back on the final play, but is expected to be ready for Sunday's contest.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Cowboys -1, O/U, 44.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s under sunny skies. Winds will blow out of the south at 6 mph.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (3-5): One can understand if LB DeMarcus Ware is licking his chops as he heads into Sunday's tilt. After New Orleans had its way with Vick, Dallas' sack leader will look to get his piece of the pie on national television. Ware has recorded nine sacks in his last three games versus Philadelphia. Tight end Jason Witten, who has recovered from his injured spleen, has 50 receptions for 462 yards in his last five games.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (3-5): Although Vick has come under fire this season, he carved up Rob Ryan's defense on both occasions last season. The electric quarterback completed 39 of 60 passes with four touchdowns and no interceptions and improved to 3-0 as an Eagles starter against the Cowboys. Vick received some bad news as right tackle Todd Herremans suffered a tendon strain to his foot against the Saints. Herremans was placed on injured reserve Wednesday, thus forcing the switch of King Dunlap to right tackle.

TRENDS:

* Under is 7-1 in Cowboys’ last eight road games.
* Eagles are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last eight vs. NFC East foes.
* Under is 7-0-1 in Eagles’ last eight vs. NFC East foes.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Dallas RB DeMarco Murray has been sidelined with a sprained left foot since Oct. 14, but did some light rehab work in practice on Wednesday. Murray is not expected to play versus the Eagles.

2. Turnovers have been critical to the shortcomings of both clubs. Dallas is a horrid minus-11 while Philadelphia is minus-9 in that department.

3. Coach Andy Reid boasts a 17-10 mark versus Dallas, while Jason Garrett has dropped three of his four contests against Philadelphia.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: