cnotes Posts:27485 Followers:33
11/03/2012 09:02 PM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 9

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 9:

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-4, 47.5)

Cowboys’ slow starts vs. Falcons fast first quarters

The Cowboys play their best football when behind on the scoreboard, which has kind of been the way all their games are going. Dallas ranks 30th in the NFL in first-quarter points, averaging just two per game, and was outscored 13-0 in the first quarter of last week’s loss to New York.

Atlanta, on the other hand, has stayed perfect in the standings thanks to its strong starts. The Falcons offense is averaging 6.7 points per first quarter – fourth in the NFL – and the team has trailed after one frame only once this season, outscoring foes 48-13 in the first quarter.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-10, 47)

Bills’ run defense vs. Arian Foster

Buffalo’s defensive line might as well have a turnstile the way opposing teams are rushing through it. The Bills rank dead last in the league in defending the run, giving up 176.9 yards on the ground per game. They were gashed for 195 yards and two scores from Tennessee RB Chris Johnson last weekend. Buffalo has given up nearly two rushing touchdowns per game this season, another NFL worst.

Foster leads the league in scores on the ground, rumbling into the end zone 10 times and sits fifth in total rushing yards with 659. He’ll have plenty of fuel in the tank after a bye which followed a 98-yard, two-score performance against Baltimore in Week 7.

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5, 38.5)

Sheltered Vikes vs. Soggy CenturyLink Field

Surprise, surprise. The extended forecast is calling for rain in Seattle. There’s a 50 percent chance of showers and game-time temperatures are expected to slip into the low 50s. Add to that environment the always-boisterous “12th Man” at CenturyLink Field, and the Vikes are in hostile territory in Week 9.

That shouldn’t phase a bunch of tough guys from Minnesota, except for the fact the Vikings are sheltered under the cozy confines of the Metrodome most weeks. Minnesota has played just one outdoor game this season – a 38-28 loss at Washington – and is 1-2 SU and ATS away from home this season.

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-3, 52.5)

Eagles’ field position vs. Saints’ punting

Part of the Eagles’ struggles on offense has come from poor field position. Philadelphia ranks 31st in the league in starting field position, beginning drives at an average of the 24.9-yard line. In 83 possessions this year, the Eagles have started at their own 40-yard line of better just eight times. The Eagles rank third worst in punt return yardage (5.6 yards per return) and i26th in the NFL in kick return yards (20.2 yards per kick return).

The Saints aren’t doing a lot of things right but have been one of the best punting team in the NFL this season. New Orleans’ big boot Thomas Morstead boasts an average punt of 51.3 yards (second highest in the NFL) and the return coverage is keeping that at 46.4 average yards net on punts – tops in the league.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27485 Followers:33
11/03/2012 09:05 PM

NFL poolies betting cheat sheet: Week 9

Carolina at Washington (-3.5, 47)

The Panthers are trying to salvage a season that has gone awry because of five losses by six points or fewer. They've dropped five straight and QB Cam Newton is mired in a sophomore slump. Newton has thrown eight interceptions and only five touchdowns. The Washington defense has been dreadful this season, allowing more than 350 total yards in every game and more than 420 four times. The underdog is 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings.

Arizona at Green Bay (-11, 43.5)

Arizona was among the league's biggest surprises after opening the campaign with four straight victories, but they have come to a screeching halt during their current four-game skid, scoring a total of three touchdowns and averaging only nine points per game during that span. The Packers are going for a fourth straight victory but are missing top receiver Greg Jennings (abdominal) and fellow wideout Jordy Nelson is nursing a hamstring injury. Green Bay has played over the total in four of its last five games and faces its lowest number of the season Sunday (43.5).

Detroit at Jacksonville (4, 44)

The Lions squeaked out a 28-24 decision over the Seahawks last week and look to post back-to-back wins for the first time against the Jaguars, who will try to avoid a five-game losing skid. Jacksonville put up 341 yards of total offense last week against Green Bay without star RB Maurice Jones-Drew (foot) and QB Blaine Gabbert threw for a season-high 303 yards and a score. Jacksonville also held the dangerous Green Bay offense to a season-low 238 total yards. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

Chicago at Tennessee (3.5, 43.5)

Matt Hasselbeck will start at QB in place of the injured Jake Locker but will be going up against a Chicago defense that is tied for the league lead with 16 interceptions. Titans RB Chris Johnson has gone over 100 yards from scrimmage in each of the last three weeks and will try to take some pressure off Hasselbeck. However, the Bears’ stop unit is yielding a league-best 77.9 yards per game while forcing 12 fumbles this season. The road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

Denver at Cincinnati (3.5, 47.5)

The Bengals must find a way to slow down Peyton Manning, who went 7-0 with 17 TDs and three INTs against Cincinnati as a member of the Colts. Manning has quieted some of his early-season critics by throwing 12 TDs while being picked off just once over the last four games. Denver may also get a boost on defense with the return of CB Tracy Porter, who has missed the last two games while dealing with the side effects from seizures. The Bengals are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.

Baltimore at Cleveland (3.5, 42.5)

The Ravens are coming off a bye week and have emerged victorious in the last nine meetings against the Browns - including a 23-16 triumph on Sept. 27. Cleveland stood tall and held San Diego to just a pair of field goals in a 7-6 victory last Sunday. Rookie RB Trent Richardson showed no effects of a rib injury and gashed the Chargers for a season-best 122 yards and a TD. The Ravens have failed to cover in their last five games overall.

Buffalo at Houston (-10, 47.5)

Buffalo is ranked last in nearly every defensive statistic including allowing an NFL-leading 32.4 points per game. Led by Arian Foster, Houston’s elite running game could have its way with a Bills team that is allowing an average of 176 yards a game on the ground and has surrendered 937 yards rushing over their last four games. Buffalo DE Mario Williams underwent wrist surgery last week but expects to play in his return to Houston. The Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a bye week.

Miami at Indianapolis (1, 43)

Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill’s availability for this game is in question due to a bone bruise in his left knee but he was at practice on Wednesday, splitting snaps with backup Matt Moore. The Miami special teams unit was stellar in last week’s win over the Jets, becoming the first team in 20 years to block a punt, block a field goal and recover an onside kick. Andrew Luck is one 300-yard passing performance away from tying Peyton Manning’s rookie mark with four and has already helped double Indianapolis’ win total from last season. The Dolphins are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.

Minnesota at Seattle (-4, 38.5)

The Seahawks suffered their second straight loss in gut-wrenching fashion, surrendering the winning touchdown with 20 seconds to play in last week's 28-24 loss at Detroit. Minnesota will be looking to rebound from an embarrassing 36-17 home loss to Tampa Bay, its second defeat in three games following a 4-1 start to the season. The Seahawks are 3-0 at home this season with impressive victories over Dallas, Green Bay and New England. Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last six at CenturyLink Field.

Tampa Bay at Oakland (-1, 46.5)

Bucs QB Josh Freeman has passed for 10 TDs against two INTs in his past four games and RB Doug Martin had his best professional game against the Vikings last week, totaling 214 yards from scrimmage. Raiders’ tailback Darren McFadden also had a breakout performance last week, running for a season-high 114 yards in Oakland’s 26-16 win over the Chiefs. Tampa Bay is 3-0 ATS on the road this season.

Pittsburgh at N.Y. Giants (-3.5, 47.5)

Eli Manning and the Giants offense will be up against the NFL's top-rated pass defense that is allowing just 182.6 passing yards per game. Even more impressive is that the Pittsburgh stop unit is getting it done without star S Troy Polamalu, who is set to miss his fourth consecutive game with a strained right calf. The Steelers rushing attack could receive a massive boost this Sunday with the possible return of both Rashard Mendenhall (Achilles) and Isaac Redman (ankle). Jonathan Dwyer has filled in admirably for the injured duo, racking up 229 yards on the ground in consecutive Steeler victories. Pittsburgh is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games.

Dallas at Atlanta (-4, 47.5)

The Falcons, who are the lone undefeated team in the league, are coming off a convincing 30-17 rout at Philadelphia in which QB Matt Ryan threw three TD passes on their first three possessions. The victory moved Atlanta to 7-0 for the first time in franchise history and padded its lead in the division to four games over Tampa Bay. However, the Falcons have been far from dominant at home this season, winning their three games by a total of 11 points. The turnover-riddled Cowboys erased a 23-0 deficit at home against the Giants last week before falling late to absorb their third loss in four games. The Cowboys have played under the total in six of their last seven road games.

Philadelphia at New Orleans (-3, 51.5)

Eagles coach Andy Reid is feeling the heat after his squad dropped its third straight game last Sunday and was mulling a quarterback change this week. But Michael Vick will resume his traditional role of starting, albeit after guiding a flat offense once again in a 30-17 loss to undefeated Atlanta. Vick will have a chance to break out of his slump against a New Orleans defense that has yielded an average of 474.7 yards per game – 50 yards more than the 31st-ranked Buffalo defense. The Saints are the first team to allow 400 yards in seven consecutive games since 1950. The teams have played over the total in their last five meetings.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27485 Followers:33
11/04/2012 11:01 AM

NFL weather watch: Steelers' travel plans altered

Detroit Lions at Jacksonville Jaguars (5, 44)

Site: EverBank Field

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-80s with sunny skies. However, fog could reduce visibility in the first half of the game. Winds will blow light out of the west.

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-4, 38.5)

Site: CenturyLink Field

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s with a 55 percent chance of showers. Winds will blow out of the south at 12 mph.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants (-3, 48)

Site: MetLife Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-40s under partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow from the north at 10 mph. Remember, the Steelers had to alter their travel plans due to the devastation caused by Hurricane Sandy. The team was originally scheduled to fly in Saturday, but will instead travel early Sunday morning and return to Pittsburgh following the game.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27485 Followers:33
11/04/2012 11:02 AM

NFL

Sunday, November 4

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Broncos at Bengals: What bettors need to know
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Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (4, 48)

It took him some time to shake off the rust of a year-long layoff, but Peyton Manning is officially back. The NFL’s only four-time MVP has the AFC West-leading Denver Broncos rolling and he’ll try to keep it going on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals, who return from their bye week looking to end a three-game skid. Despite banging his thumb on a helmet early, Manning was 22-of-30 for 305 yards and three touchdowns in a dominating 34-14 victory over the New Orleans.

Manning has passed for over 300 yards in a franchise-record five straight games. He’s also the first player to record four straight games of 300-plus yards and three touchdowns with a completion percentage over 70 percent. The Bengals have had a week to devise ways to slow down Manning, who went 7-0 with 17 touchdowns and three interceptions against Cincinnati with the Colts. Denver has won three straight and 12 of the last 14 meetings. Willis McGahee ran for 101 yards and a score in last season’s 24-22 victory in Denver.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Broncos -4, O/U 48.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-40s under partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the north at 6 mph.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (4-3): Manning has quieted some of his early-season critics by throwing for 12 touchdowns and just one interception over the last four games. He orchestrated an offense that amassed 300 yards passing and 200 yards rushing for the first time in six years against New Orleans. The team got a brief scare when Manning smacked his thumb on a defender’s helmet in the second quarter (he didn't miss a play). Willis McGahee had 122 of the Broncos’ season-best 225 rushing yards and the 31-year-old is proving he still has plenty in the tank (he’s 10th in the league with 554 yards). Denver’s defense, ranked 14th in scoring (21.7) after holding New Orleans in check, will be without CB Tracy Porter. Porter, who has missed the last two games while dealing with side effects from seizures, has resumed practicing but didn't travel with the team to Cincinnati.

ABOUT THE BENGALS (3-4): While Manning’s resurgence has sparked the Broncos, the Bengals have hit a lull after a hot start due to the struggles of second-year quarterback Andy Dalton. “The Red Rifle” has thrown six interceptions during the losing streak and was held to 105 yards in a 24-17 loss to Pittsburgh prior to the bye week – his lowest total since his pro debut. The Bengals rely heavily on Dalton and second-year wideout A.J. Green, who has scored in six straight games and is tied for the league lead in touchdowns (7), because the rushing attack has been non-existent. Cincinnati is 23rd in rushing (96.6) with BenJarvus Green-Ellis averaging a mere 3.4 yards per carry.

TRENDS:

* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Over is 5-1 in Broncos’ last six road games.
* Bengals are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Denver has outscored opponents 69-14 over the last six quarters, starting with the magical Monday night comeback against San Diego on Oct. 15.

2. Cincinnati, ranked 16th against the pass (233.1), has allowed just one 300-yard game this season when Cleveland's Brandon Weeden threw for 322 yards in Week 2.

3. Normally reserved Bengals coach Marvin Lewis challenged Dalton to be more of a leader, saying he needed him to “grab this football team by the back of its neck and (say) 'Let's go. Let's move forward.' "


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27485 Followers:33
11/04/2012 11:04 AM

NFL

Sunday, November 4

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Steelers at Giants: What bettors need to know
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Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants (-3.5, 48)

Two playoff contenders clash Sunday afternoon when the resurgent Pittsburgh Steelers travel to New York to face the defending Super Bowl champion Giants. The Giants are in complete control of the NFC East after holding on to beat Dallas despite blowing a 23-point lead last week, but they have to make up some ground on undefeated Atlanta to work their way into position for the NFC's top seed.

The Steelers have won two straight by getting back to playing smash-mouth football. They've averaged 148.5 rushing yards the past two weeks and allowed just 220 total yards per game during that span. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger might mix things up and try to exploit a Giants defense that allowed 415 passing yards to Dallas last week. New York has won four of the past six meetings, including a 21-14 victory in the most recent clash in 2008.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Giants -3.5, O/U 48.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-40s and sunny skies. Winds will blow out of the north at 8 mph.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (4-3): The rise of Pittsburgh's run game has come on the shoulders of Jonathan Dwyer, who started the season as the third-string back but has taken over the featured role with injuries to Rashard Mendenhall (Achilles) and Isaac Redman (ankle). Ironically, Dwyer (quad) has been limited in practice this week and is listed as doubtful - as is Mendenhall - but Redman is on track to play.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (6-2): New York's offense has been balanced and effective with Eli Manning leading the passing game and Ahmad Bradshaw and Andre Brown heading the ground game. The defense has given up big chunks of yardage but has done a solid job of keeping opponents out of the end zone thanks to 24 turnovers.

TRENDS:

* Steelers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games.
* Giants are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 4-1 in Steelers’ last five road games.
* Under is 6-0 in Giants’ last six games following an ATS win.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Steelers have allowed only one team to top 100 yards rushing (Oakland, 119) and have not allowed an opponent to pass for 300 yards.

2. The Giants are 10-0 when Bradshaw tops 100 rushing yards. He has averaged 102 yards in his past four games against AFC teams.

3. Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin is in position to earn his 60th career victory.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27485 Followers:33
11/04/2012 11:06 AM

NFL

Sunday, November 4

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Sunday Night Football: Cowboys at Falcons
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Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5, 47.5)

Having turned the NFC South race into a runaway, the Atlanta Falcons will look to remain perfect when they host the enigmatic Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night. The league's lone undefeated team, the Falcons are coming off convincing 30-17 rout at Philadelphia in which quarterback Matt Ryan threw touchdown passes on their first three possessions. The victory moved Atlanta to 7-0 for the first time in franchise history and padded its lead in the division to four games over Tampa Bay.

The turnover-riddled Cowboys erased a 23-0 deficit at home against the New York Giants before falling late to absorb their third loss in four games. Dallas has not put together a solid all-around effort since beating the Giants on the road in the season opener. Ryan is 29-5 as a starter at the Georgia Dome, but Atlanta has been far from dominant at home this season, winning its three games by a total of 11 points.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: Falcons -4, O/U 47.5.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (3-4): Quarterback Tony Romo has always been a lightning rod for criticism, but it's been justified this season as he has turned the ball over at an alarming pace. Romo was intercepted four times against the Giants to give him an NFL-worst 13 - three more than he thew all last season. Romo also threw for a career-high 437 yards in the game and was within an out-of-bounds fingertip of giving Dallas consecutive wins for the first time this season. The running game has struggled all season and has been non-existent with DeMarco Murray missing the last two games. Murray (foot) has been ruled out for Sunday.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (7-0): Atlanta is coming off its most impressive outing of the season, scoring on its first six possessions to dismantle the Eagles. Ryan had the third-highest passer rating of his career (137.4) in throwing for 262 yards and the three TDs. Julio Jones had his first 100-yard game since Week 1 with five catches for 123 yards and one touchdown. Ryan has thrived despite a running game that ranks 24th in the league at 95.0 yards per game. Veteran Michael Turner has failed to average more than three yards per carry in four of the seven games, but he continues to get a sizable number of carries as the Falcons seek to maintain balance in their offense.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 6-1 in Cowboys’ last seven road games.
* Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five Week 9 games.
* Cowboys are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Falcons are 28-0 when Ryan has a passer rating above 100, including 5-0 this season.

2. The Cowboys ranked fourth overall in total defense (292.4 yards per game) and third against the pass (187.7).

3. Atlanta TE Tony Gonzalez needs one TD pass to reach 100 for his career.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27485 Followers:33
11/04/2012 12:27 PM

Sunday, November 4

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Carolina - 1:00 PM ET Washington -3 500
Washington - Over 48 500

Arizona - 1:00 PM ET Arizona +10 500
Green Bay - Under 43 500

Detroit - 1:00 PM ET Jacksonville +5 500
Jacksonville - Over 43.5 500

Chicago - 1:00 PM ET Tennessee +4.5 500
Tennessee - Under 44 500

Denver - 1:00 PM ET Denver -5 500
Cincinnati - Over 47.5 500

Baltimore - 1:00 PM ET Baltimore -3.5 500
Cleveland - Under 43.5 500

Buffalo - 1:00 PM ET Buffalo +10.5 500
Houston - Under 47.5 500

Miami - 1:00 PM ET Miami -1 500
Indianapolis - Under 44 500

Minnesota - 4:05 PM ET Minnesota +4 500
Seattle - Over 38.5 500

Tampa Bay - 4:05 PM ET Tampa Bay +1 500
Oakland - Under 47 500

Pittsburgh - 4:25 PM ET N.Y. Giants -3.5 500
N.Y. Giants - Over 48 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27485 Followers:33
11/04/2012 07:59 PM

Sunday, November 4

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Dallas - 8:20 PM ET Dallas +4.5 500

Atlanta - Under 47 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27485 Followers:33
11/04/2012 07:59 PM

Sunday, November 4

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Dallas - 8:20 PM ET Dallas +4.5 500

Atlanta - Under 47 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27485 Followers:33
11/05/2012 07:27 PM

NFL

Monday, November 5

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Monday Night Football: Eagles at Saints
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Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-3, 51.5)

Two of this season's underachieving teams will meet on Monday night as the Philadelphia Eagles invade the Crescent City for a date with the New Orleans Saints. While Drew Brees will undoubtedly be at the helm of the struggling Saints, initial reports had Eagles coach Andy Reid mulling the idea of a change at quarterback. Despite the talk, Michael Vick will resume his traditional role of starting, albeit after guiding a flat offense once again in a 30-17 loss to undefeated Atlanta last week.

Brees' job security is in far better shape than Vick's, but his performance in Sunday night's 34-14 setback to Denver left a bit to be desired. In interim coach Joe Vitt's first contest since returning to the sideline from suspension, the top-rated passing game mustered just 213 yards as New Orleans' two-game winning streak came to an end. Once again, a porous defensive effort contributed mightily to the Saints' undoing - a factor which could help the Eagles snap a three-game losing skid.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Saints -3, O/U 51.5.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (3-4): Although he scored two touchdowns, running back LeSean McCoy was held to just 45 yards against the Falcons. McCoy could take the mounting pressure off the Eagles' passing game by getting untracked against the Saints, who allowed 225 yards on the ground to the Broncos. Vick could feast on a New Orleans defense which has yielded an average of 474.7 yards per contest this season - 50 yards more than 31st-ranked Buffalo.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (2-5): Despite a sluggish effort versus Denver, the high-octane offense of New Orleans is expected to give new Philadelphia defensive coordinator Todd Bowles plenty to think about. Tight end Jimmy Graham returned from a one-game absence due to a sprained right ankle with five catches, 63 yards and a score. Marques Colston posted the same numbers, but was held without a touchdown for the first time in three games. The Saints will be without RB and second-leading receiver Darren Sproles, who underwent hand surgery.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-0 in their last five meetings.
* Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in New Orleans.
* Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five Monday games.
* Saints are 7-1 ATS in their last eight November games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Saints' rushing attack has been limited to 72.6 yards per game this season - a full 12.5 yards less than 31st-ranked Oakland.

2. Philadelphia DE Jason Babin has struggled coming off his 18-sack season in 2011. Babin, who has just 2.5 this season, was benched for poor performance
during Sunday's game versus Atlanta.

3. New Orleans is the first team since 1950 to allow 400 yards in seven consecutive games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: