cnotes Posts:24417 Followers:32
11/10/2012 10:17 AM

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 11

Saturday's games
Top games
Missouri lost three of last four games, is 1-5 in first season of SEC play (4-5 overall), but they played tough defense last week, losing 14-7 (+17) at Florida; Tigers outgained Florida 335-276 but threw four picks, were -3 in turnovers. It was 4th time in five weeks Mizzou held opponent under 20 points. Tennessee has opposite problem; they lost four of last five games, with only win 55-48 over Troy of Sun Belt (TY, 722-718, Troy); Vols have only two takeaways in last four games, have allowed 23+ points in first half in each of last six games. Tennessee is 1-3 as favorite this year, 0-3 at home; Mizzou is 2-3 as underdog, 2-1 on road. SEC home favorites are 13-10 vs spread in conference play. All eight of Tennessee’s lined games went over total; six of last seven Mizzou games stayed under.

Stanford beat Oregon State last two years with Luck under center (38-0/38-13), but are still just 4-7 in last 11 games vs Beavers; Cardinal is +8 in turnovers in last four series games, winning 36-28/38-0 in last two played here. Favorites covered six of last nine series games (3-4 in last seven here). 7-1 Beavers won SU all four times they were underdog this year; they’re 14-6 vs spread in last 20 games as road dogs. Stanford was held to 13 points in both losses (@Washington/@ Notre Dame) this year; they’re 1-3 as home favorites this year, after having covered 14 of previous 21 games in that role. Cardinal hasn’t turned ball over in last two games, has +11 turnover ratio this season. Pac-12 home favorites are 12-9 vs spread in league play. Both teams are starting QB who began season as the backup.

LSU has to bounce back from huge effort/bigger disappointment in last-minute loss vs Alabama last week; they’ve won last 12 games vs Mississippi State, and covered 15 of last 18 (3-3 in last six). Bulldogs lost last seven visits here (2-5 vs spread), with four of last five by 18+ points; they’ve been crushed 38-7/38-13 last two weeks (trailed both games 24-0 at half), after starting season 7-0, so they need big effort here to avoid freefall (finish with Arkansas/Ole Miss). Tigers are 3-4 as favorites this year, 2-2 at home; their last three I-A wins were all by five or less points. Tigers have 20 takeaways in last seven games, are +8 in turnovers last three games. Seven of eight MSU games, four of last five LSU games stayed under the total. Big number for LSU to cover with possible post-Bama hangover, but they’re 12-7-1 vs spread in game following last 20 losses.

Fresno State covered eight of last nine games, four of five on road; only one of last five opponents scored more than 20 points. Bulldogs covered seven of last nine as a road favorite. Nevada’s defense has fallen apart, allowing 37-39-48 points in last three games; they’ve scored 31+ points in all three losses this year- since ’02 they’re 10-7 as home underdogs, 2-0 since ’10. In last four games, Nevada foes converted 32 of 59 on 3rd down. Wolf Pack won last four games with Fresno State by average score of 43-28; underdogs are 6-3-1 vs spread in last 10 series games, 4-1 in last five played here, with Bulldogs losing last two visits, 35-34/41-28. MWC home underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in league play. Four of last five Fresno games stayed under total; last three Nevada games went over.

Other Notes
-- Wyoming failed to cover last five tries as a road favorite.
-- Temple is 10-3-1 vs spread in last 14 games as a home underdog.
-- Memphis won/covered its last six games vs Tulane.
-- Underdogs covered seven of last nine Houston-Tulsa games.

-- Michigan covered just six of last 19 conference home games.
-- UL-Lafayette covered 14 of last 16 tries as a road underdog. Underdogs covered seven of last eight Virginia-Miami games.
-- Visiting team covered last six Texas-Iowa State games.

-- Rutgers covered six of its last seven games with Army.
-- Underdog covered five of last six Kansas-Texas Tech games.
-- Syracuse is 3-10 vs spread in last 13 Big East home games.
-- Road team is 11-5-1 vs spread in Ole Miss-Vanderbilt games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24417 Followers:32
11/10/2012 10:18 AM

NCAAF

Saturday, November 10

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Oregon State at Stanford: What bettors need to know
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Oregon State at Stanford (-5, 44.5)

Redshirt freshman Kevin Hogan will make his first start at quarterback when No. 15 Stanford hosts No. 12 Oregon State on Saturday in a critical Pac-12 North showdown. The teams are tied for second with 5-1 records, and both play first-place Oregon in the next two weeks. With Stanford and Oregon State ranked in the nation’s top 20 in scoring defense, the game figures to be a low-scoring contest. Stanford is hoping a change in quarterback improves its passing offense, which ranks ninth in the Pac-12. At Oregon State, quarterback Cody Vaz is set to make his second straight start in place of Sean Mannion, who lost the job after throwing four interceptions two weeks ago in a loss to Washington. The Beavers are 3-1 on the road this season, while Stanford has won seven straight home games and 18 of its last 19.

TV: 3 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Stanford -5, O/U 44.5

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-50s with a 30 percent chance of showers. Winds will blow out of the NNW at 8 mph.

ABOUT OREGON STATE (7-1, 5-1 Pac-12): The Beavers are 7-1 for the first time since 2000, and are second in the Pac-12 in scoring defense behind Stanford. Senior cornerback Jordan Poyer, who leads the Beavers with five interceptions, is expected to play after missing last Saturday’s 36-26 victory over Arizona State with a knee injury. Terron Ward rushed for a career-high 146 yards last week, but rushing yards figure to be at a premium with Stanford ranked No. 1 and Oregon State No. 5 in the nation in run defense. Leading rusher Storm Woods (knee) is expected to return Saturday after sitting out last week.

ABOUT STANFORD (7-2, 5-1): The Cardinal are allowing only 16.6 points per game, and their defense has held the last three opponents to a combined minus-36 rushing yards. Stanford's pass defense ranks 10th in the conference, but safety Ed Reynolds recorded his third interception return for a touchdown during last week’s 48-0 victory over Colorado. Stepfan Taylor ranks fourth in the Pac-12 in rushing and is 53 yards away from reaching 1,000 yards for the third season in his career. Hogan gets the start at quarterback over Josh Nunes after passing for 184 yards and two touchdowns and running seven times for 48 yards against the Buffaloes.

TRENDS:

* Under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Beavers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 4-0 in Stanford’s last four games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Stanford has won the last two games against Oregon State and three of the previous four, including last season’s 38-13 victory in Corvallis.

2. Oregon State is 51-3 since the start of the 2004 season when leading after three quarters.

3. Stanford leads the conference in turnover margin at plus-11.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24417 Followers:32
11/10/2012 10:19 AM

NCAAF

Saturday, November 10

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Texas A&M at Alabama: What bettors need to know
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Texas A&M at Alabama (-13.5, 57)

Top-ranked Alabama dodged a major bullet in its national title defense last week, but the Crimson Tide face another tough test Saturday with No. 14 Texas A&M traveling to Tuscaloosa for the first time. The teams are meeting for the first time since 1988; Alabama has won three of four previous meetings. The Crimson Tide can clinch the SEC West title by beating the Aggies or by winning their Iron Bowl matchup with Auburn on Nov. 24. Texas A&M would have to beat Alabama and Missouri (Nov. 23) and also have the Crimson Tide lose to Auburn to make its way to the SEC Championship Game.

That's a far-fetched scenario for the Aggies, not least of all because it involves knocking off the Crimson Tide. Alabama won its first eight games by an average of 32.5 points before needing a late touchdown pass from A.J. McCarron to pull out a 21-17 win at LSU last week. The Crimson Tide's vaunted defense did give up big chunks of yardage on the ground and through the air against LSU, and it will face a major challenge against the Aggies and freshman quarterback Johnny Manziel.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Alabama -13.5, O/U 57.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-70s with clear skies. Winds will blow out of the south at 6 mph.

ABOUT TEXAS A&M (7-2, 4-2 SEC): The Aggies have proven they can compete with the SEC's powers in their first year in the league - their only losses were 20-17 vs. Florida and 24-19 vs. LSU - but this is their last chance to knock off one of the conference's elite teams. Coach Kevin Sumlin's offense, led by Manziel, has averaged 559.6 total yards, which is on pace to break the SEC record of 534.4 set by Florida in 1995. The Aggies rank fifth in the nation in total offense and fourth in scoring (44.67).

ABOUT ALABAMA (9-0, 6-0): The Crimson Tide looked vulnerable for the first time this season against LSU, but McCarron and the offense were up to the task down the stretch. The defense likely will face its biggest test yet, but Alabama has the athletes to contain Manziel much like LSU did. Alabama also has a weapon in senior Jeremy Shelley, the only kicker in the nation who has not missed an extra point or field goal this season. Shelley is 43-for-43 on PATs and has made all nine of his field goal attempts.

TRENDS:

* Under is 3-0-1 in Crimson Tide’s last four home games.
* Under is 5-1 in Aggies’ last six vs. a team with a winning record.
* Aggies are 1-7 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record.
* Crimson Tide is 1-5 ATS in its last six November games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Alabama and Louisiana Tech are the only teams in the nation that have not thrown an interception this season. McCarron has thrown a school-record 289 passes without a pick.

2. Texas A&M has scored first in every game this season and 14 straight dating to 2011. The Aggies have scored on seven of nine opening drives this year.

3. Alabama has scored in 151 consecutive games, the longest streak in program history.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24417 Followers:32
11/10/2012 10:20 AM

College football betting weather watch: Week 11

Northwestern at Michigan (-8.5, 51.5)

Site: Michigan Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-50s under mostly cloudy skies. Winds will blow from the south at 12 mph.

Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan (2.5, 62)

Site: Rynearson Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s and overcast conditions. Winds will blow from the SSE at 13 mph.

Colorado at Arizona (-29, 66)

Site: Arizona Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-50s with a 35 percent chance of showers. Winds will blow from the west at 14 mph.

Penn State at Nebraska (-8, 51)

Site: Memorial Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-70s with a 25 chance of thunderstorms. Winds will be strong out of the south at 23 mph.

West Virginia at Oklahoma State (-10, 77)

Site: Boone Pickens Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-70s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the SSE at 27 mph.

Baylor at Oklahoma (-21.5, 76)

Site: Oklahoma Memorial Stadium

Forecasts are projecting temperatures in the low-70s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will gust out of the south at 26 mph.

Wyoming at New Mexico (2, 54)

Site: University Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-50s and a 40 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the west at 24 mph.

Air Force at San Diego State (-7.5, 58)

Site: Qualcomm Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s with a 35 percent chance of showers. Winds will prevail out of the WNW at 13 mph.

San Jose State at New Mexico State (20.5, 55)

Site: Aggie Memorial Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-60s with a 20 percent chance of rain. Winds will be strong out of the SW at 25 mph.

Western Michigan at Buffalo (2.5, 54)

Site: UB Stadium

Forecasts are projecting temperatures in the low-50s with a 45 percent chance of showers. Winds will blow out of the ESE at 9 mph.

UNLV at Colorado State (1, 53.5)

Site: Hughes Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures just below the freezing mark with a 60 percent chance of snow. Winds will be light out of the north.

Idaho at BYU (-39.5, 49)

Site: LaVell Edwards Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-20s with a 55 percent chance of snow. Winds will be light out of the WNW.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24417 Followers:32
11/10/2012 11:12 AM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

11/09/12 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1000 Detail
11/08/12 2-­2-­0 50.00% -­100 Detail
11/07/12 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1000 Detail
11/06/12 1-­1-­0 50.00% -­50 Detail
11/03/12 37-­34-­2 52.11% -­200 Detail
11/02/12 1-­1-­0 50.00% -­50 Detail
11/01/12 4-­0-­0 100.00% +­2000 Detail

Totals 49-­38-­2 56.32% +3600


Saturday, November 10

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Wisconsin - 12:00 PM ET Wisconsin -7 500
Indiana - Under 55 500

Northwestern - 12:00 PM ET Northwestern +8.5 500
Michigan - Over 52 500

Army - 12:00 PM ET Rutgers -17.5 500 BIG EAST PODRutgers - Under 53 500

Louisville - 12:00 PM ET Syracuse +2 500
Syracuse - Over 59 500

Cincinnati - 12:00 PM ET Temple +8.5 500
Temple -

Iowa State - 12:00 PM ET Iowa State +10.5 500 BIG 12 POD
Texas -

Miami - 12:00 PM ET Virginia -1.5 500
Virginia -

Purdue - 12:00 PM ET Over 48 500
Iowa -

Arkansas - 12:00 PM ET South Carolina -13.5 500
South Carolina -

Kansas - 12:00 PM ET Kansas +25.5 500
Texas Tech -

UL Lafayette - 12:21 PM ET UL Lafayette +27 500
Florida -

Missouri - 12:21 PM ET Missouri +3 500
Tennessee -

Georgia Tech - 12:30 PM ET North Carolina -7.5 500 ACC POD
North Carolina -

Florida Atlantic - 1:00 PM ET Western Kentucky -15.5 500
Western Kentucky -

Central Michigan - 1:00 PM ET Eastern Michigan +2.5 500
Eastern Michigan -

Kent State - 1:00 PM ET Kent State -6.5 500
Miami (Ohio) -

Colorado - 1:30 PM ET Arizona -29 500 PAC 12 BLOW OUT
Arizona -

Massachusetts - 2:00 PM ET Akron -16 500
Akron - Over 58.5 500

Oregon State - 3:00 PM ET Stanford -4 500
Stanford -

Arizona State - 3:00 PM ET Arizona State +8 500
Southern California - Over 63.5 500

Wake Forest - 3:00 PM ET Wake Forest +7.5 500
North Carolina State -

Air Force - 3:30 PM ET Air Force +7 500
San Diego State - Over 57.5 500

Penn State - 3:30 PM ET Penn State +8 500
Nebraska - Under 51 500

Wyoming - 3:30 PM ET Wyoming -1.5 500
New Mexico - Under 54 500

West Virginia - 3:30 PM ET Oklahoma State -10 500
Oklahoma State - Over 77 500

Baylor - 3:30 PM ET Oklahoma -21.5 500
Oklahoma - Over 75 500

Maryland - 3:30 PM ET Clemson -31.5 500
Clemson - Under 55.5 500

Texas A&M - 3:30 PM ET Texas A&M +13.5 500
Alabama - Under 56 500

Minnesota - 3:30 PM ET Illinois +3 500
Illinois - Under 45.5 500

Western Michigan - 3:30 PM ET Buffalo +2.5 500
Buffalo - Over 54 500

San Jose State - 3:30 PM ET San Jose State -20.5 500
New Mexico State - Over 55 500

Navy - 3:30 PM ET Navy -2.5 500
Troy - Under 60 500

Marshall - 4:30 PM ET Alabama-Birmingham +3 500
Alabama-Birmingham - Over 74.5 500

Tulsa - 5:00 PM ET Houston +3.5 500
Houston - Over 66.5 500

South Alabama - 5:00 PM ET South Alabama +7.5 500
North Texas - Over 48.5 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24417 Followers:32
11/10/2012 06:35 PM

Evening Best Bets:

Georgia - 7:00 PM ET Auburn +15 500
Auburn - Under 51.5 500

UNLV - 7:00 PM ET UNLV - 1 500
Colorado State - Under 53.5 500

Boise State - 7:00 PM ET Boise State -28 500
Hawaii - Over 52.5 500

Mississippi State - 7:00 PM ET Mississippi State +16 500
Louisiana State - Under 44.5 500

Vanderbilt - 7:00 PM ET Vanderbilt +2.5 500
Mississippi -

Tulane - 7:00 PM ET Memphis +1 500
Memphis -

Louisiana Tech - 7:00 PM ET Louisiana Tech-20 500
Texas State - Over 69 500

Southern Mississippi - 7:00 PM ET Southern Methodist -14.5 500
Southern Methodist -

Kansas State - 7:00 PM ET Kansas State -6.5 500
Texas Christian -

Central Florida - 7:00 PM ET Central Florida -13.5 500
Texas El Paso -

Notre Dame - 8:00 PM ET Boston College +19.5 500
Boston College -

Idaho - 10:15 PM ET Brigham Young -39.5 500
Brigham Young -

Oregon - 10:30 PM ET Oregon -29 500 California -

Utah - 10:30 PM ET Utah -1 500
Washington - Over 47 500

UCLA - 10:30 PM ET UCLA -16.5 500
Washington State - Over 61.5 500

Fresno State - 10:35 PM ET Fresno State -3.5 500
Nevada - Over 68.5 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24417 Followers:32
11/14/2012 07:15 PM

My College Wednesday Night Double MAC Game of the Year Goes tonight........

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24417 Followers:32
11/14/2012 07:18 PM

Toledo-NIU clash for MAC West title Wednesday

TOLEDO ROCKETS (8-2)
at NORTHERN ILLINOIS HUSKIES (9-1)

Kickoff: Wednesday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Northern Illinois -10.5, Total: TBD

Northern Illinois looks to stay unbeaten in MAC play when it hosts high-powered division rival Toledo on Wednesday night.

These MAC West rivals have met for each of the past 15 seasons, with Toledo going 11-4 SU (9-5-1 ATS). But NIU has taken three of four (SU and ATS), including two straight, winning 65-30 in 2010 and 63-60 last year with a game-winning TD with 19 seconds left in regulation. This season, the Huskies have rolled through conference play, going 6-0 (SU and ATS) and winning by an average score of 47.2 to 15.2 PPG. However, the Rockets have also been great in-conference, going 5-1 SU (3-3 ATS), with 36.3 PPG, but allowing 28.0 PPG. NIU is the better team, but this spread is way too large. Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points after 8+ straight SU wins, carrying a win pct. of at least 80% facing a good team (60% to 80% win pct.) are just 13-40 ATS (24%) since 1992. Also, Toledo is 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season, and Northern Illinois is just 6-16 ATS (27%) after gaining 7.25+ yards per play in its previous game since 1992. The pick here is TOLEDO to win ATS.

For more college picks, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

Toledo is coming off a 34-27 home loss to Ball State, where it outgained the Cardinals 526 to 446 in total yards and 311 to 166 in rushing yards. David Fluellen rushed for 200 of those on 34 carries (5.9 YPC), giving him a ridiculous 1,094 rushing yards (182 per game) and 9 TD in six games versus MAC opponents this year. He is now tied for second in the nation with 138.1 rushing YPG, averaging a hefty 6.0 YPC this year. Fluellen had just eight carries for 31 yards in last year's loss to NIU. Rockets QB Terrance Owens played sparingly in the 2011 meeting with the Huskies (1-for-2, 3 yds), but totaled 211 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT in the 2010 loss in Dekalb. Owens has been solid this season (2,412 pass yds, 14 TD, 5 INT), but has thrown just 5 TD and 5 INT over his past six games. The Rockets defense continues to struggle in 2012, especially against the pass, where they allow 288 passing YPG (9th-most in FBS). They have surrendered at least 200 passing yards in all 10 of their games this year, giving up 280 in last week's loss to Ball State. Toledo's run defense has also been shoddy in the past four weeks, allowing 228 rushing YPG on 6.1 YPC. The one positive for the defense is that the Rockets continue to force turnovers, tallying 14 takeaways in the past six games. They could be without senior S Mark Singer (41 tackles, 2 INT), who missed last week's loss with a knee injury.

Northern Illinois ranks ninth in the nation in scoring (40.6 PPG), thanks mostly to dual-threat QB Jordan Lynch, whose 352 total YPG is fourth-most in the nation and his 134 rushing YPG ranks fifth among all FBS players. The junior has not thrown an interception in MAC play this year (155 pass attempts), piling up 12 TD through the air and 11 TD on the ground during this six-game stretch. Senior WR Martel Moore has 8 touchdown grabs in his past nine games, but in three career meetings versus Toledo, he's totaled just five catches for 37 yards. The NIU defense has given up just 17.9 PPG (15th in FBS), holding three of the past four opponents to seven points or less, including last week's 63-0 shutout of Massachusetts. The Huskies have gotten great penetration at the line with 2.8 sacks per game (T-17th in FBS), including a MAC-best 7.4 Tackles For Loss per game. They have also done a stellar job of forcing mistakes, causing 16 turnovers in six games versus MAC opponents.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24417 Followers:32
11/14/2012 07:44 PM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

11/10/12 43-­35-­1 55.13% +­2250 Detail
11/09/12 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1000 Detail
11/08/12 2-­2-­0 50.00% -­100 Detail
11/07/12 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1000 Detail
11/06/12 1-­1-­0 50.00% -­50 Detail
11/03/12 37-­34-­2 52.11% -­200 Detail
11/02/12 1-­1-­0 50.00% -­50 Detail
11/01/12 4-­0-­0 100.00% +­2000 Detail

Totals 92-­73-­3 55.76% +5850

Wednesday, November 14

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Ohio - 8:00 PM ET BALL ST. -6 500

Ball State - Over 63 500

Toledo - 9:00 PM ET TOLEDO +10.5 500

Northern Illinois - Under 63.5 500


MAC WEDNESDAY NIGHT GOY'S

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24417 Followers:32
11/15/2012 12:46 AM

SWEETTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT what a bonus and the totals also.......

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: