cnotes Posts:27604 Followers:33
11/02/2012 07:25 PM

Where the action is: NCAAF mid-week lines moves

Week 10 of the college football season is the biggest, baddest slate of games bettors will get until bowl season.

With so much attention on the numerous marquee matchups this Saturday, we seek the wise words John Avello, sportsbook director at the Wynn Las Vegas, to find out how bettors are treating those games and where the odds could end up at kickoff.

Texas Longhorns at Texas Tech Red Raiders – Open: Texas Tech -6.5, Move: -7.5, Move: -7

The Red Raiders are giving a near touchdown to their state rivals in Lubbock Saturday and are favorites versus Texas for the first time since 2004.

Avello says bettors are losing faith in the Longhorns, normally a very popular play, after some less-than-impressive showings in recent games.

“Texas usually gets a lot of respect,” Avello, who sees the spread staying at -7, told Covers. “But you go to Kansas and struggle, you go to Oklahoma and get beat up, you lose to West Virginia. There is starting to be a lack of respect for Texas.”

Oregon Ducks at USC Trojans – Open: USC +5.5, Move: +8

This game was supposed to decide who was going to play in the national championship, but USC has stumbled along the way, taking the shine off this premier Pac-12 contest.

Avello, who is currently dealing Oregon -7, is surprised that the spread has climbed so quickly. He thought the public bettors, who love USC week to week, would be jumping at the chance to play the Trojans as a rare dog against a Ducks squad that may not be as good as its record suggests.

“Oregon is playing great, but they’re not playing anybody,” says Avello. “They haven’t had a tough game all year.”

Alabama Crimson Tide at LSU Tigers – Open: LSU +6.5, Move: +9.5

The rematch of last year’s national title game has also lost some of its luster after LSU fell to Florida and posted some disappointing efforts this season.

Avello is shocked by how high this spread has gone and says that while Alabama is clearly the best team in the country, bettors are discounting just how good the Tigers’ home-field advantage at Death Valley really is. They have the longest home winning streak in the nation at 22 games.

“(Alabama is) going to a home field that rarely loses,” he says. “It’s a big number for down there. (LSU’s) home field is worth about four or five points. So, what you’re saying is that on a neutral field Alabama would be two-touchdown favorites? I don’t know about that.”

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Kansas State Wildcats – Open: KSU -7, Move: -9.5

The Wildcats have been a popular pick with public and sharp bettors in recent weeks, moving off the key number and near another heading into what looks like a shootout with Oklahoma State – the top offensive team in the land.

However, Avello thinks Big 12 bettors will see more defense than expected in this game. The Cowboys have proven they can hold down opponents, limiting their last three foes to a total of just 38 points, an average of 12.6 a game. Online books have posted a total of 66 points for this contest.

“Last year, they had a shootout and combined for close to 100 points (OSU won 52-45) and the history has been a lot of ‘fire ‘em up, shoot ‘em out’ games,” says Avello. “But there might be more defense than you expect Saturday.”

Texas A&M Aggies at Mississippi State Bulldogs – Open: +1.5, Move: +6.5

Of all the line moves on the Week 10 board, this one stumps Avello the most. The Bulldogs, coming off a hard-fought loss at Alabama, have moved from slight home dogs to near-touchdown pups when they welcome Texas A&M to Davis Wade Stadium.

“I don’t agree with this move at all,” says Avello, who opened MSU as 1.5-point home underdogs.

The Aggies have yet to be tested on the road, picking up wins at SMU, Ole Miss and, most recently, Auburn in a 63-21 thrashing last weekend. Avello has been very impressed with Mississippi State and expects a closer game than what the line moves indicates.

“You can’t hold a loss to Alabama against them,” he says. “(Mississippi State) is going to test this Texas A&M team for sure. Texas A&M is a good team year in and year out, and they’re OK on the road. But they don’t always go on the road and dominate and they’ve only had a few weak road games this year.”

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27604 Followers:33
11/02/2012 07:27 PM

NCAAF

Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 10

First Post

Saturday's games

Top games

Cincinnati be glad to get home after losing last two weeks on road, allowing 29-34 points, their first true road games of season; Bearcats won six of its last seven games with Syracuse, though Orangemen won 31-7 in last visit here. UC covered six of last eight games as a home favorite. Syracuse won its last two games, scoring 40-37 points; they won last week at USF after being down 23-3 at half, but it was their first cover in last six tries as a road underdog. Big East home favorites are 5-7 vs spread in conference play. Three of last four Cincinnati games went over the total.

Curious to see how Mississippi State reacts after getting spanked by Alabama last week, its first loss of year; Bulldogs are 8-4 vs spread in last 12 tries as home favorite- they’re 8-9 vs spread in game following their last 17 losses. Six of State’s last seven games stayed under total. Since 2007, A&M is 9-14-1 vs spread as an underdog, but they’re 4-0 on road this year behind freshman QB Manziel- they’re -10 in turnovers last four games. Six of State’s seven wins are by 10+ points. Last time these teams met was snowy bowl game in Shreveport 12 years ago (MSU won 43-41); they didn’t have snow plows at the field.

Trap game for Oklahoma team after 30-13 home loss to Notre Dame last week, visiting spunky Iowa State squad they’ve beaten last two years by combined score of 78-6. Over last decade, Sooners are 16-6 vs spread in game following a loss, but they’re just 6-9 in last 15 tries as road favorites, 1-2 this year. OU defense is sagging; foes converted 19 of last 39 3rd down tries. Cyclones covered 11 of last 16 tries as an underdog; since ’03, they’re 17-13 as an underdog in Ames. Big X underdogs are 13-11 vs spread in league play, 5-5 at home. Under is 4-0-1 in ISU’s last five games, 1-3 in Oklahoma’s last four.

West Virginia had bye last week, after getting smoked 49-14/55-14 in previous two games; now TCU comes in having lost three of last four games, with backup (freshman) QB under center. Horned Frogs turned ball over 11 times in last four games, converted just 7 of last 31 on 3rd down, but Mountaineers allowed 45+ points in each of last four games, just been trying to outscore teams. TCU lost last two games 56-53ot/36-14, so both sides struggling here. West Virginia is 3-6 vs spread in last nine games as home favorite. Big X home favorites are 6-8 against the spread.

Sandwich game for Penn State, off last week’s loss to Ohio, and with Nebraska on deck; Lions won five in row, nine of last 11 games vs Purdue, winning 20-6/12-0 in last two visits here, but they lost at home last week, ending 5-game win streak- since ’02, they’re 21-18 vs spread in game following a loss. Lions covered 10 of last 13 games as road favorites and are 2-1 on road this year, with wins by 28-24 points. Purdue lost last four games, allowing 284 rushing yards, 38.8 ppg; they’re 2-1 as underdog this year, 5-4-1 as home dogs under Hope. Big Dozen home underdogs are 4-2 against the spread.

Underdogs covered last five Michigan State games, all of which were decided by 4 or less points, with two of last three going to OT; Spartans scored 16-10-16 points in last three games, all of which were decided by 3 or less points- they’re 2-0 this year as underdogs, 3-2-1 as home dogs under Dantonio. Nebraska is 9-6-1 as road favorite under Pelini, 0-2 this year; they’ve lost two of three on road, with only win 29-28 comeback win at Northwestern. Huskers turned ball over 18 times (-8) in their last six games. State has only two takeaways in its last four games. Under is 7-1-1 in Michigan State games this season.

Texas won four of last five games vs Texas Tech, with all four wins by 10+ points; they drubbed Red Raiders 52-20 in Austin LY, but Longhorns are just 2-2 in last four games (0-4 vs spread), beating mediocre Baylor/Kansas 56-50/21-17 last two weeks, after they gave up 111 points in losses to West Virginia/Oklahoma. Tech allowed 53/55 points in splitting pair of road games last two weeks, third time in four weeks they’ve allowed 41+ points; Red Raiders are 4-5 as home favorites under Tuberville. Over last decade, Longhorns are 5-2 as road underdogs. Three of Tech’s last four games went over.

Alabama is a powerful team; 33-14 is closest game they’ve played this year, but that could work against them here, if LSU can keep it close and get 1st-year QB Mettenberger to hit couple plays. Tigers won last two games by total of 7 points, so they’re used to tense moments. Favorites are 5-3-2 vs spread in last 10 Alabama-LSU games; teams met twice LY, with LSU winning 9-6 on road, then losing 21-0 in national title on game on neutral field. Crimson Tide lost four of last six visits here, where Saban used to be HC before going to NFL. LSU is underdog for first time this year; they’re 7-9 as dogs under Miles- over last decade, they’re 1-3 as home dogs. Bama won its four road games this year by combined score of 179-37.

Kansas State is unbeaten, but over last five years they’re 0-3 vs Oklahoma State, losing 41-39/24-14/52-45; Weeden passed for 502 yards in LY’s barnburner in Stillwater, but he’s in NFL now. Cowboys are 7-11 as road underdogs under Gundy, but 2-0 over last 2.5 years; they allowed 59-41 points in two losses this year, but allowed 14-10-14 points in winning last three games- opponents converted just 12 of last 39 on 3rd down, while K-State converted 20 of last 37 on 3rd down. Snyder is 9-6 in last 15 games as home favorite; they’re +16 in turnovers, which is problem is OSU doesn’t turn ball over (seven TO’s in last five games).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27604 Followers:33
11/02/2012 07:28 PM

College football Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Week 10

If you're looking to get some action down but only have a few minutes to handicap, let our Top-25 cheat sheet help you out. We grab the best quick-hitting betting info on each of the Top 25 matchups with odds available in Week 10 of the season.

Missouri at (8) Florida (-17, 42.5)

Gators QB Jeff Driskel had his worst game of the season in a back-breaking defeat to Georgia last week, committing four of Florida's six turnovers. While the Tigers' struggling offense should get a boost with the return of starting QB James Franklin, who came on in relief of Corbin Berkstresser in the third quarter of last week's game. Franklin had been sidelined since spraining a medial collateral ligament in his left knee in a home loss to Vanderbilt on Oct. 6. The Gators are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.

(12) Oklahoma at Iowa State (11.5, 52.5)

Oklahoma saw its slim national championship hopes evaporate last week with a loss to Notre Dame. The No. 12 Sooners will try to shake off the disappointment and earn a 14th straight victory over Iowa State at Jack Trice Stadium. The Cyclones hold the longest home losing streak in the country to a single opponent vs. the Sooners, a span of 20 games. Their last home win against Oklahoma came Nov. 5, 1960. Oklahoma is 19-0 following a loss since 2004 and hasn’t lost to Iowa State in 22 years. The Cyclones have relied on a defense that has generated the second-most turnovers in the Big 12 (19). But star LB James Knott is out for the season after undergoing shoulder surgery Monday. Knott had 11 tackles and a forced fumble in a victory over Baylor last week. The teams have played under the total in their last four meetings.

Temple at (10) Louisville (-15.5, 51)

The Cardinals are one of six unbeaten teams, thanks mostly to their efficiency in the red zone. Louisville has come away with points in 33 of 34 trips to the red zone, second in the nation behind Alabama. Temple has allowed 82 points in the last six quarters in two losses and is searching for more consistency its offense while it tries to avoid its first three-game losing streak since 2008. The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

(16) Texas A&M at (18) Mississippi State (7, 59)

Texas A&M will test its third-ranked scoring offense against Mississippi State’s stingy defense as both schools try to stay in the running for second place in the SEC West. The Aggies’ only two losses came at home against Florida and LSU by a total of eight points. Texas A&M is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.

(15) Stanford at Colorado (27.5, 51)

The Cardinal can still claim the Pac-12 North Division title but will likely have to win out. Struggling first-string QB Josh Nunes will share the load with redshirt freshman Kevin Hogan, who is expected to play up to 20 snaps this week. Colorado has been outscored 213-51 during a four-game losing streak - 120-20 in the last two weeks after a 70-14 loss at Oregon - and has allowed the most points in the country among FBS teams (46 per game). The Buffaloes are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.

TCU at (19) West Virginia (-6.5, 68)

The Mountaineers have fallen on hard times, dropping two straight games by a combined score of 114-28. The West Virginia defense has surrendered 1,155 total yards during that stretch, including 841 through the air. The Horned Frogs held a 14-0 lead at Oklahoma State last Saturday before allowing 36 unanswered points. They committed 10 penalties and had three turnovers as TCU was held to less than 20 points for the first time since the 2010 Fiesta Bowl, a string of 33 games. The Horned Frogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

Pittsburgh at (4) Notre Dame (-16.5, 45.5)

Notre Dame is ranked third in the BCS standings thanks to a massive win at Oklahoma last week and has the schedule strength to possibly reach the national championship game should they win out. The Irish stop unit is allowing only 9.9 points - second to the Crimson Tide in the country. The Pittsburgh defense hasn’t been too shabby either, allowing just 23 total points over its past two contests. The Panthers have played under the total in their last six road games.

(22) Texas at (20) Texas Tech (-7.5, 67)

Texas Tech looks to bounce back after suffering a 55-24 thrashing at Kansas State while Texas needed a late rally to hold off one-win Kansas, 21-17 last weekend. The Longhorns’ defense is surrendering 218 yards rushing per game (108th in the country) while also sporting their worst marks in total (96th) and scoring defense (97th). Head coach Mack Brown announced this week that QB David Ash would remain the starter, despite being picked off twice and was pulled against the Jayhawks. Texas Tech QB Seth Doege leads the nation with 30 touchdown passes and is one of seven quarterbacks in FBS completing at least 70 percent of his passes. The Longhorns have failed to cover in their last four games.

Mississippi at (6) Georgia (-14, 62.5)

The Bulldogs upended the Gators last week and can win the East for the second consecutive season with victories in their final two conference games. Georgia ranks fifth in the SEC in rushing and fourth in passing, a balanced attack that has the offense averaging 36.8 points this season. The Rebels have allowed 27 or more points in three of their four conference games. But Mississippi went 4-0 ATS in those contests and is 5-0 ATS in its last five overall.

(21) Nebraska at Michigan State (2, 44.5)

Nebraska has won five of its last six and two straight since it was annihilated at Ohio State 63-36 on Oct. 6. This game will be a contrast in styles, pitting a high-powered Cornhuskers offense that leads the Big Ten in scoring against a rugged Spartans defense that ranks fifth nationally in total yards, allowing 267.4 per game. Michigan State's last five games have been decided by a total of 13 points and the Spartans have been limited to 16 points or fewer four times in that span. The Cornhuskers are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

Texas-San Antonio at (23) Louisiana Tech (-32, 73)

The Bulldogs, who were held to fewer than 44 points for the first time all season last week in a win over New Mexico State, rank second in the country in total and scoring offense and have converted 48 of their 56 red-zone drives into points. Louisiana Tech has more red-zone touchdowns (44) than 115 FBS schools have red-zone trips. The Bulldogs' last seven games have played over the total and they're 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a win.

(9) Clemson at Duke (13, 65)

Clemson continues to build its resume for a BCS bowl bid, led by a high-octane offense. The ninth-ranked Tigers, averaging 41 points, go for their fifth consecutive victory at upstart Duke on Saturday. The Blue Devils could be without senior QB Sean Renfree, who suffered concussion-like symptoms in a 48-7 loss at Florida State last Saturday. Clemson has won eight of the last nine meetings and is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.

(2) Oregon at (17) USC (7.5, 70)

The Ducks take their 12-game road winning streak to the Los Angeles Coliseum on Saturday to face the Trojans. The Ducks have rolled through their early schedule, winning their first eight games by at least 17 points, but they're set to face three Top 25 teams this month, including a pair against North Division rivals Stanford (home) and Oregon State (road). USC has little margin for error left in its quest for a Pac-12 South Division title after last week's 39-36 loss in which Arizona scored 26 consecutive points to rally from a 15-point second-half deficit. The Trojans have played under the total in their last five home games.

(24) Oklahoma State at (3) Kansas State (-10, 66)

The Wildcats look to keep their national title hopes alive Saturday against visiting Oklahoma State, which has won three straight. If the Wildcats can get past the Cowboys, they’ll only have one game left against a team with a winning record. The Cowboys lead the country in total offense, averaging 586.1 yards per game and are ranked sixth nationally in scoring at 44.3 points. Kansas State has outscored its opponents 216-67 in the second half, including 98-25 in the third quarter. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

(1) Alabama at (5) LSU (9.5, 41.5)

The undefeated Tide have won every game by at least 19 points and just demolished a very good Mississippi State team. Alabama leads the nation in scoring defense (8.1), while LSU ranks ninth (14.6). The fifth-ranked Tigers had a week off to prepare following wins over ranked foes South Carolina and Texas A&M. Under Les Miles, LSU is 36-1 in Saturday night home games and has won a school-record 22 straight in Death Valley. The road team is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 meetings.

San Diego State at (14) Boise State (-13.5, 49.5)

The Aztecs have won four straight games and are looking to participate in a postseason bowl game for the third straight year, something never previously accomplished in school history. The Broncos will be without two defensive starters in sophomore S Lee Hightower (suspension) and sophomore CB Bryan Douglas (season-ending knee injury). The Broncos pitched five consecutive first-half shutouts before allowing a touchdown to Wyoming on Oct. 27. Boise State has allowed only 26 points in the first half this season.

Arizona State at (13) Oregon State (-4, 54.5)

The Beavers are switching their starting quarterback, giving Cody Vaz the nod after Sean Mannion was intercepted four times in last weekend’s upset loss to Washington. Vaz will be up against the third-stingiest pass defense in the nation and the second-ranked team in sacks. The Wildcats are hoping two key pieces of their defense are back against Oregon State. Defensive lineman Will Sutton, who leads the team in sacks (8.5), suffered a bone bruise to his knee during the first series against Oregon two weeks ago and DE Junior Onyeali is aiming to return from a shoulder injury that has forced him to depart the last two games. The teams have played over the total in five of their last six meetings.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27604 Followers:33
11/03/2012 11:36 AM

Saturday, November 3

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Missouri - 12:00 PM ET Florida -18.5 500
Florida - Over 41.5 500

Oklahoma - 12:00 PM ET Iowa State +12 500
Iowa State - Over 52 500

Vanderbilt - 12:00 PM ET Kentucky +6.5 500
Kentucky -

Temple - 12:00 PM ET Louisville -16.5 500
Louisville -

Michigan - 12:00 PM ET Michigan -10.5 500
Minnesota -

Houston - 12:00 PM ET East Carolina +3 500
East Carolina - Over 69.5 500

Texas A&M - 12:00 PM ET Mississippi State +7 500
Mississippi State -

Air Force - 12:00 PM ET Army +7 500
Army -

Miami (Ohio) - 12:00 PM ET Miami (Ohio) +3 500
Buffalo -

Syracuse - 12:00 PM ET Syracuse +4.5 500
Cincinnati -

Troy - 12:00 PM ET Troy +18.5 500
Tennessee -

Tulsa - 12:21 PM ET Tulsa +8.5 500
Arkansas -

New Mexico State - 12:30 PM ET New Mexico State +22.5 500
Auburn - Over 49.5 500

Georgia Tech - 12:30 PM ET Maryland +7.5 500
Maryland -

Virginia - 12:30 PM ET Virginia +10.5 500
North Carolina State -

Western Michigan - 1:00 PM ET Central Michigan +1 500
Central Michigan -

Stanford - 2:00 PM ET Colorado +27.5 500
Colorado - Over 51 500

Memphis - 2:00 PM ET Marshall -19 500
Marshall -

Akron - 2:00 PM ET Kent State -19.5 500 MAC BLOWOUT
Kent State -

Washington State - 3:00 PM ET Washington State +11.5 500
Utah -

Texas Christian - 3:00 PM ET Texas Christian +3.5 500
West Virginia - Over 69.5 500

Texas State - 3:00 PM ET Utah State -26 500
Utah State - Over 52 500

Florida International - 3:30 PM ET South Alabama +3.5 500
South Alabama -

Mississippi - 3:30 PM ET Georgia -14 500
Georgia -

Iowa - 3:30 PM ET Indiana -2 500
Indiana -

Nebraska - 3:30 PM ET Michigan State -1 500
Michigan State -

Boston College - 3:30 PM ET Boston College +3 500
Wake Forest -

Illinois - 3:30 PM ET Illinois +27.5 500
Ohio State - Over 50.5 500

Kansas - 3:30 PM ET Baylor -16.5 500
Baylor -

Florida Atlantic - 3:30 PM ET Florida Atlantic +16.5 500
Navy -

Penn State - 3:30 PM ET Penn State -3.5 500
Purdue - Under 51 500

Texas - 3:30 PM ET Texas Tech -6.5 500
Texas Tech - Over 67.5 500

Rice - 3:30 PM ET Tulane +5.5 500
Tulane -

Pittsburgh - 3:30 PM ET Notre Dame -17 500
Notre Dame -

Massachusetts - 3:30 PM ET Northern Illinois -35 500
Northern Illinois - Over 57 500

UL Lafayette - 4:00 PM ET UL Lafayette +9.5 500
UL Monroe -

New Mexico - 4:00 PM ET UNLV -3.5 500
UNLV -

Texas-San Antonio - 4:00 PM ET Louisiana Tech -30.5 500
Louisiana Tech -

Colorado State - 4:30 PM ET Wyoming -7 500
Wyoming -

Arkansas State - 5:00 PM ET North Texas +4 500
North Texas - Over 59.5 500

San Jose State - 5:00 PM ET San Jose State -21 500
Idaho -

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27604 Followers:33
11/03/2012 11:36 AM

Saturday, November 3

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Missouri - 12:00 PM ET Florida -18.5 500
Florida - Over 41.5 500

Oklahoma - 12:00 PM ET Iowa State +12 500
Iowa State - Over 52 500

Vanderbilt - 12:00 PM ET Kentucky +6.5 500
Kentucky -

Temple - 12:00 PM ET Louisville -16.5 500
Louisville -

Michigan - 12:00 PM ET Michigan -10.5 500
Minnesota -

Houston - 12:00 PM ET East Carolina +3 500
East Carolina - Over 69.5 500

Texas A&M - 12:00 PM ET Mississippi State +7 500
Mississippi State -

Air Force - 12:00 PM ET Army +7 500
Army -

Miami (Ohio) - 12:00 PM ET Miami (Ohio) +3 500
Buffalo -

Syracuse - 12:00 PM ET Syracuse +4.5 500
Cincinnati -

Troy - 12:00 PM ET Troy +18.5 500
Tennessee -

Tulsa - 12:21 PM ET Tulsa +8.5 500
Arkansas -

New Mexico State - 12:30 PM ET New Mexico State +22.5 500
Auburn - Over 49.5 500

Georgia Tech - 12:30 PM ET Maryland +7.5 500
Maryland -

Virginia - 12:30 PM ET Virginia +10.5 500
North Carolina State -

Western Michigan - 1:00 PM ET Central Michigan +1 500
Central Michigan -

Stanford - 2:00 PM ET Colorado +27.5 500
Colorado - Over 51 500

Memphis - 2:00 PM ET Marshall -19 500
Marshall -

Akron - 2:00 PM ET Kent State -19.5 500 MAC BLOWOUT
Kent State -

Washington State - 3:00 PM ET Washington State +11.5 500
Utah -

Texas Christian - 3:00 PM ET Texas Christian +3.5 500
West Virginia - Over 69.5 500

Texas State - 3:00 PM ET Utah State -26 500
Utah State - Over 52 500

Florida International - 3:30 PM ET South Alabama +3.5 500
South Alabama -

Mississippi - 3:30 PM ET Georgia -14 500
Georgia -

Iowa - 3:30 PM ET Indiana -2 500
Indiana -

Nebraska - 3:30 PM ET Michigan State -1 500
Michigan State -

Boston College - 3:30 PM ET Boston College +3 500
Wake Forest -

Illinois - 3:30 PM ET Illinois +27.5 500
Ohio State - Over 50.5 500

Kansas - 3:30 PM ET Baylor -16.5 500
Baylor -

Florida Atlantic - 3:30 PM ET Florida Atlantic +16.5 500
Navy -

Penn State - 3:30 PM ET Penn State -3.5 500
Purdue - Under 51 500

Texas - 3:30 PM ET Texas Tech -6.5 500
Texas Tech - Over 67.5 500

Rice - 3:30 PM ET Tulane +5.5 500
Tulane -

Pittsburgh - 3:30 PM ET Notre Dame -17 500
Notre Dame -

Massachusetts - 3:30 PM ET Northern Illinois -35 500
Northern Illinois - Over 57 500

UL Lafayette - 4:00 PM ET UL Lafayette +9.5 500
UL Monroe -

New Mexico - 4:00 PM ET UNLV -3.5 500
UNLV -

Texas-San Antonio - 4:00 PM ET Louisiana Tech -30.5 500
Louisiana Tech -

Colorado State - 4:30 PM ET Wyoming -7 500
Wyoming -

Arkansas State - 5:00 PM ET North Texas +4 500
North Texas - Over 59.5 500

San Jose State - 5:00 PM ET San Jose State -21 500
Idaho -

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27604 Followers:33
11/03/2012 06:07 PM

Evening BEST BETS:


Oregon - 7:00 PM ET Oregon -8 500
Southern California - Under 72 500

Connecticut - 7:00 PM ET Connecticut +7 500
South Florida -

Clemson - 7:00 PM ET Clemson -12 500
Duke - Over 66.5 500

Hawaii - 7:00 PM ET Fresno State -33 500
Fresno State - Under 59 500

Southern Methodist - 7:00 PM ET Central Florida -9.5 500
Central Florida - Under 51 500

Alabama-Birmingham - 7:30 PM ET Alabama-Birmingham +3.5 500
Southern Mississippi -

Oklahoma State - 8:00 PM ET Oklahoma State +7.5 500
Kansas State - Over 68 500

Alabama - 8:00 PM ET Alabama -7.5 500
Louisiana State - Under 39 500

Arizona - 10:30 PM ET Arizona +3 500
UCLA - Over 71 500

San Diego State - 10:30 PM ET San Diego State +15.5 500
Boise State - Over 49.5 500

Arizona State - 10:30 PM ET Arizona State +3.5 500
Oregon State - Under 56 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27604 Followers:33
11/06/2012 12:48 AM

Trends - Ball State at No. 25 Toledo

Red - Hot trends are trends 80% or higher. Blue - Cold trends are trends 20% or lower.


ATS Trends




Ball State



•Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Cardinals are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.
• Cardinals are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a bye week.
• Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
• Cardinals are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
• Cardinals are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games on fieldturf.
• Cardinals are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Cardinals are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games.
• Cardinals are 37-14 ATS in their last 51 road games.
• Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Tuesday games.
• Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.





Toledo



•Rockets are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS loss.
• Rockets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
• Rockets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Tuesday games.
• Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.


OU Trends




Ball State



•Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games in November.
• Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Over is 8-1-1 in Cardinals last 10 games following a S.U. win.
• Over is 7-1 in Cardinals last 8 road games.
• Over is 6-1-1 in Cardinals last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
• Over is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Over is 8-2 in Cardinals last 10 conference games.
• Under is 7-2 in Cardinals last 9 games following a bye week.
• Over is 17-5-2 in Cardinals last 24 games following a ATS win.
• Over is 10-3-1 in Cardinals last 14 games overall.
• Over is 6-2-1 in Cardinals last 9 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Over is 21-8-2 in Cardinals last 31 games on fieldturf.
• Under is 5-2 in Cardinals last 7 Tuesday games.





Toledo



•Over is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 games following a bye week.
• Over is 5-1 in Rockets last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
• Over is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 Tuesday games.
• Over is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 games in November.
• Under is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Over is 8-3 in Rockets last 11 home games.


Head to Head




•Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
• Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
• Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27604 Followers:33
11/06/2012 12:52 AM

Toledo seeks 9th straight win hosting Ball St.

BALL STATE CARDINALS (6-3)
at TOLEDO ROCKETS (8-1)

Kickoff: Tuesday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Toledo -6, Total: TBD

No. 25 Toledo tries to stay unbeaten in MAC play when it hosts a surging Ball State team on Tuesday night.

The Cardinals have won three straight (SU and ATS) and are 4-1 ATS on the road this season. They have great offensive balance with more than 200 yards per game in both rushing and passing. Since losing by a touchdown at Arizona in Week 1, Toledo has reeled off eight straight SU wins (5-3 ATS), including then-unbeaten Cincinnati two games ago. The Rockets have scored at least 25 points in each of these victories. Toledo has also beaten Ball State three straight times (2-1 ATS). Toledo's offense has thrived in this series, scoring 37.7 PPG and 477 total YPG during the three-game series win streak over BSU. And the Cardinals are still poor defensively this season, allowing 33.3 PPG and 465 total YPG. Home favorites after 7+ SU wins in a row in conference games are 82-38 ATS (68%) in the past 10 seasons, and the Rockets are 34-14 ATS (71%) at home after playing their previous game on the road since 1992. The pick here is TOLEDO to win and cover on Tuesday night.

For more college picks, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

Ball State QB Keith Wenning is in the midst of a strong season, throwing for 2,425 yards (269 YPG), 17 TD and 7 INT. He's put up big numbers in two career games versus Toledo (266 pass YPG, 5 TD), but he's also thrown five interceptions in the two meetings. Wenning benefits greatly from having the conference's top receiver in Willie Snead who leads the MAC in both receptions (7.6 per game) and receiving yards (100 YPG). The sophomore did not play against Toledo last year. But the Cardinals prefer to rush the football more in road games, averaging 45 carries per game and 205 rushing YPG in their five away contests. This includes rumbling for 457 yards on 103 carries in the past two games, road wins at Central Michigan (41-30) and Army (30-22). Jahwan Edwards has been the workhorse lately with 74 carries over the past three games, producing 414 yards and 4 TD. Defensively, Ball State has been equally bad defending the run (203 YPG, 102nd in FBS) and pass (262 YPG, 101st in nation). The Cardinals problems stem from a lackluster pass rush that averages a mere 1.3 sacks per game and 4.1 Tackles For Loss per game.

Toledo QB Terrance Owens was nearly perfect in last year's 45-28 win at Ball State, completing 27-of-32 passes for 267 yards, 4 TD and 0 INT. He hasn't been great in MAC play though, throwing for just 5 TD and 5 INT in the five conference games, including two picks in the last game, a 25-20 win at Buffalo. But that is certainly not the case for RB David Fluellen who has exploded since MAC play began, rushing for an astounding 894 yards (179 per game) on 7.0 YPC with 8 TD to help his team to a 5-0 conference record. Like Ball State, the Rockets defense has been underwhelming this season, especially against the pass, where they allow 289 passing YPG (114th in FBS). They have surrendered at least 200 passing yards in all nine of their games this year. Toledo's run defense has also been shoddy in the past three weeks, allowing 248 rushing YPG. The one positive for the defense is that the Rockets have some playmakers, and have tallied 11 takeaways in the past five games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27604 Followers:33
11/06/2012 06:35 PM

NCAAF

Long Sheet

Week 11

Tuesday, November 6

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BALL ST (6 - 3) at TOLEDO (8 - 1) - 11/6/2012, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TOLEDO is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
TOLEDO is 38-20 ATS (+16.0 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
TOLEDO is 43-24 ATS (+16.6 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.
TOLEDO is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
TOLEDO is 49-30 ATS (+16.0 Units) in home games since 1992.
TOLEDO is 49-30 ATS (+16.0 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
BALL ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TOLEDO is 1-1 against the spread versus BALL ST over the last 3 seasons
TOLEDO is 2-0 straight up against BALL ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NCAAF

Week 11

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Tuesday, November 6

8:00 PM
BALL STATE vs. TOLEDO
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Ball State's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Ball State's last 14 games
Toledo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Toledo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

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NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 11

Ball State at Toledo
The Cardinals look to build on their 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 games following a bye week. Ball State is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Rockets favored by only 4. Dunkel Pick: Ball State (+6 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 6

Game 101-102: Ball State at Toledo (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 82.168; Toledo 86.434
Dunkel Line: Toledo by 4; 72
Vegas Line: Toledo by 6 1/2; 68
Dunkel Pick: Ball State (+6 1/2); Over




NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 11

Tuesday's game
Favorites covered four of last five Ball State-Toledo games, with Rockets winning last three by 17-7-7 points (average score, 38-27); Cardinals are 6-3 this year, 7-2 vs spread, 3-1 as underdogs- they allowed 52-45-35 points in three losses, are 5-0 when allowing less than 35 points. MAC home favorites are 13-7 vs spread in conference play. Toledo lost in OT at Arizona in its opener, won eight in row since; they're 2-0 as a home favorite this year, and also upset Cincinnati at home- they hadn't lost at the time. Three of last four Ball State games, four of last six Toledo tilts stayed under the total. Make sure you get out and vote today!!!!




NCAAF

Tuesday, November 6

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Ball State at Toledo: What bettors need to know
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Ball State at Toledo (-6.5, OFF)

Toledo has made it back into the top 25 for the first time since the end of the 2001 season. The 25th-ranked Rockets aim to stay right there when they host dangerous Ball State on Tuesday in a key Mid-American Conference matchup. Toledo has won eight straight games since a 24-17 overtime loss at Arizona on opening night to match its best start in history and stands a half game behind next week’s opponent, Northern Illinois, in the MAC-West.

The Rockets average 34.3 points per contest and it will likely take that much in this game, with both teams outside the top 105 in the nation in total defense. Ball State, which has won three straight, is ranked 22nd in the nation (Toledo is 32nd) in total offense and averages 33.7 points. The Rockets have won the last three games against Ball State, including a 45-28 decision last year.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN2.

LINE: Toledo -6.5

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-30s with a 30 percent chance of showers. Winds will be light out of the south.

ABOUT BALL STATE (6-3, 3-2 MAC): The Cardinals, one of two eligible teams left out of a bowl last year after finishing 1-3, have tough games left against the Rockets, Ohio and Miami of Ohio to try and improve their resume. Ball State has rushed for 200 yards or more in five of nine games, led by Jahwan Edwards who averages 105.4 yards. Quarterback Keith Wenning has 50 career touchdown passes and his top target Willie Snead is averaging 100 yards receiving in 2012. The Cardinals have won three times on their final possession and Steven Schott leads the nation with 2.2 field goals per game.

ABOUT TOLEDO (8-1, 5-0 MAC): David Fluellen has emerged with five straight 100-yard rushing efforts, capped by a career-high 228 in the last game against Buffalo. Quarterback Terrance Owens will likely have to raise his game down the stretch if the Rockets are to reach their goals. The junior has thrown five interceptions in the last four games after being flawless in the first five of the campaign. Owens has two big targets in Bernard Reedy (803 yards) and Alonzo Russell (733). Toledo has intercepted 12 passes.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a bye week.
* Over is 4-0 in Rockets’ last four games following a bye week.
* Over is 7-1 in Cardinals’ last eight road games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Toledo LB Dan Molls leads the nation with 12.9 tackles per game and Ball State LB Travis Freeman has 432 career tackles, most among active NCAA players.

2. Snead has registered 46 plays from scrimmage of more than 10 yards.

3. The Rockets have won 19 of their last 21 MAC games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27604 Followers:33
11/06/2012 06:37 PM

NCAAF

Short Sheet

Week 11

Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Ball State at Toledo, 8:00 ET ESPN2

Ball State: 11-2 Over off an ATS win

Toledo: 13-4 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: