cnotes Posts:25157 Followers:33
11/08/2012 06:40 PM

FSU looks to add to Va. Tech slump on Thursday

FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (8-1)
at VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES (4-5)

Kickoff: Thursday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Florida State -14, Total: 51.5

Virginia Tech looks for a signature victory during a miserable season when it hosts No. 10 Florida State on Thursday night.

These teams last met in the 2010 ACC Championship when Virginia Tech won 44-33. That was just the second series loss (13-2 SU) for Florida State since 1976. This season, the Seminoles are 0-3 ATS on the road, scoring just 26.3 PPG, compared to 54.0 PPG in six home games. Virginia Tech has dropped four of five (SU and ATS), but all four losses have been on the road, including a 30-12 thrashing at Miami last Thursday. But since losing to James Madison in 2010, the Hokies are 15-1 SU (8-8 ATS) in their past 16 home games.

Can the Hokies pull off the upset over heavily-favored FSU? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

Seminoles QB EJ Manuel had a strong outing when he lost to Va. Tech in the conference title game two years ago, completing 23-of-31 passes for 288 yards and 1 TD, but also throwing a pair of interceptions. He currently ranks second in the nation in passing efficiency, completing 70% of his passes for 2,315 yards (10.1 YPA), 16 TD and 4 INT. In last week's 48-7 shellacking of Duke, he threw for 282 yards and 2 TD despite completing just eight passes. The running game suffered a major loss two weeks ago when top RB Chris Thompson suffered a season-ending knee injury. However, FSU was still able to gallop for 261 yards against the Blue Devils, led by Devonta Freeman's 104 rushing yards (8.7 YPC) and 2 TD with James Wilder Jr. adding 70 yards and another score. The 'Noles lead the country in total defense (227 YPG allowed) while ranking among the top-four FBS schools in scoring defense (12.0 PPG), rushing defense (73 YPG) and passing defense (154 YPG). Florida State also has a great return game, placing among the top-10 in the nation in both kickoff returns (28.8 average) and punt returns (16.0 average).

Virginia Tech QB Logan Thomas has not faced FSU in his career, and considering how poorly he's played lately (12 INT in past seven games), this is not a good matchup for him. Despite the miscues, Thomas has topped 300 total yards in four straight weeks, rushing for 223 yards and 2 TD over the past two contests. For the Hokies to hang around in this game, either or both of RBs Michael Holmes (282 rush yds, 4 TD) and J.C. Coleman (361 yds, 2 TD) need to power through the few holes they'll get against FSU's tough defense. Virginia Tech's defense is solid in both total defense (368 YPG) and scoring defense (24.7 PPG), especially at home where the Hokies have allowed just 44 points over four games. They need to take more risks to create turnovers though, as they have just five takeaways in their five losses this season.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25157 Followers:33
11/08/2012 06:43 PM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

11/07/12 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1000 Detail
11/06/12 1-­1-­0 50.00% -­50 Detail
11/03/12 37-­34-­2 52.11% -­200 Detail
11/02/12 1-­1-­0 50.00% -­50 Detail
11/01/12 4-­0-­0 100.00% +­2000 Detail

Totals 45-­36-­2 55.56% +2700

Thursday, November 8

Game Score Status Pick Amount

UL Monroe - 7:00 PM ET Arkansas State -7 500
Arkansas State - Under 59.5 500

Florida State - 7:30 PM ET Virginia Tech +12.5 500
Virginia Tech - Under 49 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25157 Followers:33
11/10/2012 10:04 AM

Stanford hosts Oregon St. in clash of top-15 teams

OREGON STATE BEAVERS (7-1)
at STANFORD CARDINAL (7-2)

Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Stanford -4, Total: 44.5

A key Pac-12 showdown takes place Saturday afternoon when No. 14 hosts No. 11 Oregon State.

These teams have split the past eight meetings 4-4 (SU and ATS), but Stanford pounded Oregon State 38-0 and 38-13 in the past two matchups. OSU ranks fifth in the nation in rushing defense (92 YPG), but the Cardinal lead FBS with 58 rushing YPG allowed on 1.98 YPC. Beavers QB Cody Vaz threw for 267 yards and 3 TD in last week’s 36-26 home win, while Stanford pitched a 48-0 shutout in Colorado. The Beavers are 19-11 ATS on the road since 2008, but the Cardinal are 17-1 SU at home over the past three seasons.

Who will prevail in this Pac-12 matchup? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

Vaz has thrown 7 TD with just one pick in 102 attempts this season, but he'll be asked to throw the football 30-to-40 times against Stanford's subpar pass defense allowing 268 passing YPG (107th in FBS). His top targets will be sophomore QB Brandin Cooks (50 rec, 906 yds, 4 TD) and senior WR Markus Wheaton (54 rec, 787 yds, 8 TD) who has 90+ receiving yards in five of his past seven games. Wheaton totaled 89 total yards in last year's loss to the Cardinal. Considering the Beavers rank 108th in FBS in rushing offense (115 YPG), they will probably not call too many running plays, especially against Stanford's rushing defense that has allowed a total of minus-34 rushing yards during its three-game win streak. Vaz will also have to get rid of the ball quickly, as the Cardinal also lead the nation in both sacks (4.3 per game) and Tackles for Loss (9.2 per game). He'll also have to be wary of Stanford safety Ed Reynolds, who has returned three interceptions for touchdowns this year, including two in the past two games.

Stanford redshirt freshman QB Kevin Hogan will get his first collegiate start on Saturday. He replaced the ineffective Josh Nunes last week and completed 18-of-23 passes for 184 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT in the win over Colorado. But he'll be facing a much tougher defense on Saturday, as the Beavers have allowed just 519 passing yards (5.2 YPA) in the past three weeks combined. The Cardinal will turn to RB Stepfan Taylor (947 rush yds, 8 TD), who has 230 yards on just 30 carries (7.7 YPC) and 1 TD in three career games versus the Beavers. But this OSU run-stop unit has been outstanding, allowing the fifth-fewest rushing yards in the nation (92 rush YPG), a number that was worsened with last week's season-high 150 yards allowed to Arizona State's ground game.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25157 Followers:33
11/10/2012 10:05 AM

No. 1 Alabama hosts No. 15 Texas A&M Saturday

TEXAS A&M AGGIES (7-2)
at ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (9-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Alabama -14, Total: 56.5

No. 1 Alabama seeks its 10th win this season when it faces No. 15 Texas A&M on Saturday.

These schools have met just four times (twice in the Cotton Bowl) with Alabama going 3-1 SU with a lopsided 30-10 win in the most recent matchup in 1988. Texas A&M is coming off a 38-13 blowout win at Mississippi State and has 52.3 PPG in its seven SU victories this year. Its two losses were to Florida and LSU, the same team the Tide eked out a victory against last week, prevailing with a game-winning TD drive in the final minute. Alabama is just 1-3 ATS at home this year despite outscoring visitors 146 to 28 (scoring margin of 29.5 PPG).

Will Alabama win comfortably over Texas A&M on Saturday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

Texas A&M freshman QB Johnny Manziel ranks second in the nation in total offense with 383 YPG. He's thrown for 16 TD and just 6 INT while rushing for another 15 scores, including eight over the past four games. He has totaled an incredible 24 TD in five road games this year (7 TD at home). Top RB Ben Malena has also been strong in SEC road contests, rushing for 317 yards (7.5 YPC) and 3 TD in three conference road tilts. The Aggies have been a bit turnover-prone (6 TO at Ole Miss, 5 TO vs. LSU), but they have just one miscue over the past two weeks (wins at Auburn and Mississippi State), piling up 101 points and 1,364 yards of offense (682 per game). Defensively, the Aggies have been much more sound since allowing Louisiana Tech to hang 57 points on them. In the three games since, A&M opponents have just 19.3 PPG and 320 total YPG, lowering its season numbers to 21.0 PPG and 377 total YPG.

Alabama QB AJ McCarron had a poor showing against LSU (14-of-27, 165 yds), but he came up big on the game-winning drive capped off by his 19th TD pass of the season. He still hasn't thrown a single interception all year despite 204 pass attempts. Another big reason for Alabama's success has been freshman RB T.J. Yeldon, who has been especially outstanding in the past four games, rushing for 433 yards (8.0 YPC) and six touchdowns. He also caught the game-winning TD pass last week. RB Eddie Lacy has also had a strong season, rushing for 679 yards (5.7 YPC), including 83 in the last game. Defensively, Alabama still leads the nation in scoring defense (9.1 PPG), but fell to second in total defense (229 YPG) after allowing a season-high 435 yards (296 passing) to LSU. Considering how potent Kevin Sumlin's offense is at A&M (560 YPG, 5th in nation), this could be a big problem for the Tide. Alabama ranks fourth in FBS in turnover margin (+1.7 TO per game), but did not force any LSU miscues last week.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25157 Followers:33
11/10/2012 10:07 AM

Mississippi State seeks rare win at LSU Saturday

MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS (7-2)
at LSU TIGERS (7-2)

Kickoff: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: LSU -14.5, Total: 44

No. 7 LSU looks to bounce-back from a rare home loss when it faces a team it has dominated in recent years, No. 21 Mississippi State.

LSU has not lost a home game to Mississippi State since 1991 and has won 12 straight SU (9-3 ATS) overall in this series, allowing seven points or less in seven of these victories, including each of the past two seasons (29-7 and 19-6 wins). The Bulldogs have been crushed in the past two weeks by Alabama (38-7) and Texas A&M (38-13), while the Tigers had the No. 1 Tide down before allowing a game-winning TD drive with 0:51 left to play.

Which SEC school will bounce back from last week's loss? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

Mississippi State's offense has done very little in the past two weeks, scoring just 20 points with a mere 145 rushing yards (3.0 YPC). Considering how great LSU's run-stop unit has been (103 YPG, 12th in nation), this meager rushing output isn't expected to make a significant jump. That leaves it up to QB Tyler Russell to keep his team in this game by throwing the football. He's in the midst of a pretty strong season with 1,954 passing yards (7.4 YPA), 16 TD and just 3 INT, but this is not a good matchup for him. The last time he visited Baton Rouge two years ago, he tossed three interceptions in just 10 pass attempts. And as good as LSU's rushing defense is, the passing defense is even better, ranking second in FBS with just 150 passing YPG allowed. Although Mississippi State has committed five turnovers in its past two road games, it has one giveaway or less in the other seven games it has played this year, and LSU thrives on stripping the football. If MSU doesn't turn the ball over, it has a shot to hang around in this one.

LSU QB Zach Mettenberger threw for 298 yards versus ‘Bama’s top-ranked defense, which was actually a season-high for him. But the Tigers are much better running the football, as their 201 rushing YPG ranks third in the SEC. Freshman Jeremy Hill was the workhorse last week with 107 yards on 29 carries (3.7 YPC), marking his third straight 100-yard game. But if his lower-body injury sustained last week limits him on Saturday, both Michael Ford (370 rush yds, 5.9 YPC) and Spencer Ware (268 rush yds, 3.9 YPC) are capable backs. Considering Mississippi State just allowed 361 rushing yards (6.2 YPC) to Texas A&M last week, expect a heavy dosage of carries from LSU's ground game. Defensively, the Tigers have forced a whopping 23 turnovers this season, with multiple takeaways in each of the past seven games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25157 Followers:33
11/10/2012 10:09 AM

Unbeaten Oregon visits slumping Cal on Saturday

OREGON DUCKS (9-0)
at CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS (3-7)

Kickoff: Saturday, 10:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Oregon -28, Total: 67.5

No. 3 Oregon looks to secure its 10th straight win to start the season when it visits struggling Cal on Saturday night.

The home team is on a 7-2 run (SU and ATS) in this series, but Oregon has won the past three meetings (2-1 ATS), including a 15-13 win at Cal in 2010 in a game where the Bears were accused of faking injuries to stop the no-huddle attack. Nobody has stopped the unbeaten Ducks in 2012, as they have scored at least 42 points in every game and are riding a current four-game ATS win streak. California has dropped three in a row (SU and ATS), and is just 1-4 (SU and ATS) in home games versus FBS schools this season.

Can Oregon cover the hefty spread on the road? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

Oregon RB Kenjon Barner is coming off a school-record 321 rushing yards and 5 TD in the 62-51 win at USC last week, a game in which OU piled up 730 total yards of offense. That marks Barner's fifth straight 100-yard effort, as he's totaled 885 rushing yards (177 per game) and 13 TD over this span. The Ducks are scoring 56.8 PPG with 575 total yards per game (384 rush YPG) during the current four-game ATS win streak. Freshman QB Marcus Mariota threw four touchdown passes in the win over the Trojans, giving him 22 TD and just 5 INT this year. The defense got lit up for 51 points and 615 yards in last week's win at USC, but they have been outstanding in turning the football over with 21 takeaways over the past six games.

Cal actually led last year's meeting at halftime before Oregon rolled up 29 unanswered points and prevailed 43-15. The Bears will have a much harder time staying in this game if starting QB Zach Maynard's knee prevents him from playing. His numbers haven't been stellar in his senior year (7.5 YPA, 12 TD, 10 INT) but a lot of that has to do with the ridiculous 39 sacks he's taken. Only two FBS teams (Colorado 40 and Washington 40) have surrendered more sacks this year. Maynard completed just 20-of-41 passes for 218 yards (5.3 YPA), 1 TD and 0 INT in last year's loss in Eugene. If Maynard can't go, Allan Bridgford will replace him. The junior has completed just 17-of-48 pass attempts (35%) in his career, including 4-of-16 for 32 yards in two games this year. RBs C.J. Anderson and Isi Sofele will be the most important parts of the Bears offense. Anderson rushed for 160 yards on 7.3 YPC in last week's loss to Washington and Sofele had a huge game at Oregon last year with 119 yards on just 12 carries. Although Cal's defense has not faced an offense in the same class as the Ducks, the Bears started the season allowing 27+ points in each of its first five games, but has given up 21 points or less in four of the past five contests. And Oregon has been turnover-prone with 17 giveaways in the past eight games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25157 Followers:33
11/10/2012 10:11 AM

Texas A&M at Alabama

November 9, 2012

Since losing to LSU in overtime at Bryant-Denny Stadium last November, Alabama (9-0 straight up, 5-4 against the spread) had won 12 consecutive games by 17 points or more. In other words, Nick Saban’s team had not been in a 60-minute slugfest in a long time.

Well, the Crimson Tide got just that last Saturday night at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge. Trailing 14-3 at intermission, LSU dominated the second half and bullied its way into the lead at crunch time.

Zach Mettenberger enjoyed his best game as a college football player, completing 24-of-35 throws for 298 yards and one touchdown without an interception. His 14-yard scoring strike to Jarvis Landry gave the Tigers a 17-14 advantage early in the fourth quarter.

When Mettenberger connected with Odell Beckham for a 22-yard gain to Alabama’s 31 with 2:34 remaining, LSU appeared poised to pull off the upset. But Alabama had two timeouts left and used both of them after stuffing a pair of run plays, setting up a third-and-10 situation for LSU.

Although Les Miles had been aggressive all night long and his QB was in a great rhythm, he opted for the safe play. Jeremy Hill rushed for four yards to set up a 45-yard field goal. Drew Alleman’s attempt was off the mark, though, giving the Tide a chance to go 72 yards in 88 seconds.

LSU’s defense had given Alabama QB A.J. McCarron absolutely nothing in the second half, limiting him to one completion for zero yards. But the junior signal caller had different ideas for the biggest drive of his career.

It started with a quick throw to Kevin Norwood, who shook a tackler for first-down yardage and an 18-yard gainer. Most importantly, the clock stopped to move the chains.

Quickly on the ball, McCarron hit Norwood again on a deep out for 15 yards. This time, Norwood got out of bounds at LSU’s 39 with 1:11 remaining.

Now as long as Alabama avoided a sack, the clock wasn’t much of an issue. McCarron went to Norwood again on an out pattern for 11 yards to LSU’s 28. Again, Norwood got out of bounds.

At this point, it was time to get greedy. Forget a game-tying field-goal attempt to force overtime. McCarron smelled blood and was ready to go for the kill. He dropped back and looked to Norwood – again! – in the back of the end zone but the pass fell incomplete after Norwood and the defender went down due to incidental contact.

For the first four plays of the drive, LSU had sat back in coverage with just a four-man rush. On second and 10 with 51 ticks left, the Tigers decided to bring pressure. Unfortunately for them, Alabama had the perfect play called.

McCarron threw a screen pass to freshman running back T.J. Yeldon, who had blockers in front. This looked like trouble from the get-go and it was. Yeldon only needed to make one man miss (he did) before scampering to paydirt.

On LSU’s ensuing drive, it went three and out without getting the clock stopped once. Alabama had escaped with a 21-17 win, but LSU took the cash as an eight-point home underdog. The 38 combined points barely stayed ‘under’ the 38 ½-point total.

Now gamblers must determine where Alabama is at physically and emotionally after playing its toughest game of the season, one it was shooting for all year. The Tide better be ready for another barnburner because Texas A&M (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS) is coming to Tuscaloosa with nothing to lose and one of college football’s premier weapons in redshirt freshman quarterback Johnny ‘Football’ Manziel.

Most betting shops are listing Alabama as a 13 ½-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 56. Bettors can take the Aggies on the money line for a generous plus-400 return (risk $100 to win $400).

Kevin Sumlin’s squad has been the SEC’s biggest surprise, losing only to Florida (20-17) and LSU (24-19) in games it led for most of the first half. This is Texas A&M’s third road assignment in as many weeks, but the road has been good.

The Aggies smashed Mississippi St. by a 38-13 count last week and went into Auburn and emerged with a 63-21 victory two weeks ago. The 63-point eruption on The Plains was the most points an opponent had ever scored in the storied history of Jordan-Hare Stadium.

Manziel has produced video-game numbers all year. He leads the SEC in rushing with 922 yards and 15 touchdowns, averaging 6.7 yards per carry. Manziel has completed 66.6 percent of his passes for 2,527 yards with a 16/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Texas A&M is tops in the SEC and fifth in America in scoring, averaging 44.7 points per game. With that sort of production, you know there are other key pieces in addition to the start signal caller.

Manziel has two of the SEC’s top wide receivers in Mike Evans and Ryan Swope. Evans has hauled in 56 receptions for 802 yards and two TDs, while Swope has 45 catches for 641 yards and five TDs.

RB Ben Malena has rushed for 637 yards and six TDs, averaging 6.6 YPC. Christine Michael has rushed for 381 yards and eight scores.

This offense will go up against a ‘Bama ‘D’ that’s ranked No. 1 in the nation in total defense and scoring defense (9.1 PPG).

McCarron still hasn’t thrown an interception this year and has 19 TD passes.

As a home favorite on Saban’s watch, Alabama has posted a 17-18 spread record.

The ‘under’ is 5-3 overall for the Aggies, 3-2 in their road assignments. Meanwhile, Alabama has seen its totals go 4-4-1 overall, but the ‘under’ is 3-0-1 in its home games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25157 Followers:33
11/10/2012 10:12 AM

Pac-12 Report - Week 11

November 9, 2012

Saturday - Oregon State at Stanford (FOX, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Five-Star Game

This game has taken on a different look than it would have had in past weeks. The Oregon State Beavers turn to QB Cody Vaz for a second straight game, as he gets the nod over Sean Mannion (knee), who is not quite 100 percent. Redshirt freshman Kevin Hogan gets the start over Josh Nunes, based mostly on performance. Hogan passed for 183 yards and two touchdowns, while giving the Cardinal an added dimension with his tremendous escapability in the pocket. Of course, that success came against an awful Colorado team, not a nationally-ranked and dangerous Oregon State club. Stanford is 5-0 at home this season, and they lead the Pac-12 with a plus-11 turnover margin. The Beavers are 6-0-1 ATS in their past seven games against a team with a winning record, and 7-2-1 ATS in their past 10 games overall. Stanford is 14-5-1 ATS in their past 20 Pac-12 games, and 22-10 ATS in their past 32 in Palo Alto, so something has to give. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this series. However, the under might be the best play here. The under has cashed in four of Oregon State's past five games following an ATS win, and the under is 4-0 in the past four for Stanford overall, and 5-1 in their past six conference games. In this series, the under is 9-2 in the past 11 meetings, and 4-1 in the past five meetings in Palo Alto.

Saturday - Arizona State at Southern California (Pac-12 Network, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Four-Star Game

The Trojans limp into this game losers of two straight, and the Sun Devils would just love to help add to their woes while becoming bowl eligible with a signature win. USC has failed to cover in four of their past five games, and they are 0-4 ATS in their past four games against a team with a winning record. In addition, USC is 0-4 ATS at the Coliseum against a visiting team with a winning record. For AZ State, they haven't had much more success. While they are 5-2 ATS in their past seven games on grass, they are 3-7 ATS in the past 10 Pac-12 games, and 2-5-1 ATS in their past eight road games. In addition, they are also 2-5-1 ATS in their past eight against teams with a winning record. The Sun Devils are also 9-24-2 ATS in their past 35 road contests against a team with a winning home record. This game screams stay away.

Saturday - Utah at Washington (Pac-12 Network, 10:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Three-Star Game

Utah has turned it around lately, at least for bettors. The Utes are 4-1 ATS in their past five games, and 4-1 ATS in their past five conference games. However, Washington has been equally impressive, especially at home, registering wins against Top 10 opponents (at the time) Stanford and Oregon State. They are 4-0 ATS in their past four home games, and 7-1 ATS in their past eight against a team with a losing record. U-Dub is 5-2 ATS in their past seven games overall. However, the under is what really might draw the eye of bettors. The under has cashed in four straight roadies for Utah, and the under is 9-4 in their past 13 games against a team with a winning record. For Washington, the under has cashed in six straight games in Seattle, and is 6-2 in their past eight overall. The under is also 5-2 in their past seven conference clashes.

Saturday - UCLA at Washington State (ESPN2, 10:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Two-Star Game

The UCLA Bruins have been a bit of a tease this season. Just when you think they have it going in the right direction and they should roll over an opponent on their schedule, they falter. It happened against Oregon State earlier this season, although the Beavers turned out to be no slouch. But then it happened again at Cal a few weeks ago, and they were rolled - badly. UCLA is just 5-11 ATS in their past 16 games, so a trip to the Palouse might not be the fuel this team needs to keep going. The Cougs are still trying to find some consistency, and they are ineligible for a bowl following their seventh loss last time out. However, they are 8-2-1 ATS in their past 11 games following an ATS loss, and 6-2 ATS in their past eight games against a team with a winning record. In addition, they are 11-5 ATS in their past 16 games in Pullman against a team with a winning record. If you need further push to pick WaZu, consider the underdog is 6-2 ATS in the past eight matchups in this series. The Bruins are also 2-9 ATS in the past 11 meetings, and just 1-6 ATS in their past seven meetings at Washington State.

Saturday - Oregon at California (ESPN, 10:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup One-Star Game

The high-flying Ducks take their show on the road to Berkeley this weekend. While it is widely expected they will win, and win handily, a cover might not necessarily be a given. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings in this series. Of course, that featured some much better Bears teams. Cal is just 3-8 ATS in their past 11 games, and 2-5 ATS in their past seven Pac-12 games. In addition, Jeff Tedford's group is just 1-5 ATS in their past six home games, one spanking of UCLA last month was the lone exception. The Ducks are 4-0 ATS in their past four games, 6-0 ATS in their past six games on grass, and 6-1 ATS in their past seven games overall. They have also covered in four straight Pac-12 games. In the past five meetings, the under has cashed each time, but are you brave enough to bet an under in an Oregon game? The over has cashed in 23 of Oregon's past 31 conference games, and is 35-17 in their past 52 games overall.

Saturday - Colorado at Arizona (FX, 1:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Other Game to Watch

The Buffaloes have been downright abysmal this season, and they likely can't wait for this nightmare season to end. Colorado is 5-17 ATS in their past 22 games against a team with a winning record, so it isn't just this season that they have struggled. They are 6-20 ATS in their past 26 conference games, and they are a dismal 1-12 ATS in their past 13 games on a grass surface. On the other side, Arizona is 4-1 ATS in their past five home games, 5-2 ATS in their past seven games on grass, but just 1-5 ATS in their past six games against a team with a losing record. The over might be a better play, as the over has come through in 21 of Colorado's past 30 games in the month of November. The over has cashed in five straight games for Arizona, and is 4-0 in their past four games in Tucson. The over is also 16-5 in Arizona's past 21 Pac-12 skirmishes.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25157 Followers:33
11/10/2012 10:13 AM

Big Ten Report - Week 11

November 7, 2012

The week's most important matchup takes place in Bloomington, Indiana. Wisconsin travels to face the Hoosiers and the winner has a head-start in the Leaders division race to represent the division in the Big Ten title game. The Badgers are off of a bye week and have to replace their starting quarterback while Indiana is off of a come-from-behind victory over Iowa. ASA analyzes this matchup as well as every other Big Ten matchup in this week's breakdown.

Indiana (+7) vs. Wisconsin - 12:00 PM EST - ESPN2
IU: Last week vs. Iowa: W 24-21
UW: Last week - BYE

This is the biggest game in Bloomington in recent memory. The Hoosiers can pull even with Wisconsin and would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker for the Leaders Division spot in the Big Ten title game if they can win their third straight conference game. Despite the five losses, the Hoosiers have been in every game they've played. Only one of their five losses was by more than four points. In last week's win over Iowa, Indiana fell behind 14-0 early in the 1st quarter. They battled back, thanks to 406 passing yards from QB's Coffman and Sudfeld, and won 24-21. Coffman and Sudfeld have combined to complete 63% passes this season with 17 touchdowns and just five interceptions. The defense is getting better, as it has allowed just 31 total points over the past two weeks. They do rank 108th in rush defense, and they'll have to shore that up as one of the nation's premier power-running offenses comes to town.

The Badgers have had two weeks off to try and figure out their new situation as starter Joel Stave will miss the remainder of the season with a broken collarbone. Curt Phillips and Danny O'Brien have been battling it out and coaches haven't indicated who will start; but we anticipate both quarterbacks seeing the field. The Badgers managed just 19 yards on 37 carries in the Badgers last game loss to Michigan State two weeks ago. RB's Ball and White look to get back on track against this porous Indiana rush-defense. Defensively this will be the best passing attack that Wisconsin has faced thus far. The Badgers pass-defense has allowed opposing QB's to complete just 55% this season, but they've surrendered 15 touchdown passes with just four interceptions. Still, this unit hasn't surrendered more than 16 points in the last four games.

Recent history: Wisconsin has won seven straight in this series by an average of 33.5 points and is 5-1 ATS over the past six. Last year the Badgers piled up 332 rush yards in a 59-7 win. Wisco has scored 83 and 59 points in back-to-back wins over the Hoosiers.

Trends: Wisconsin is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games and 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games as a Big Ten road favorite. Indiana is 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall. The last five times these two have met the score has gone 'over' the total.

Injury report: Badgers' star LT Rick Wagner is poised to return to the starting lineup after missing two weeks with a right knee injury.

Nebraska (-7) vs. Penn State - 3:30 PM EST - ABC
UN: Last week at Michigan State: W 28-24
PSU: Last week at Purdue: W 34-9

The Huskers are in first place in the Legends division, but they can't clinch title yet.

For the second consecutive road game, Nebraska faced a double-digit deficit in the fourth quarter. And once again, the Huskers found a way to win. QB Taylor Martinez overcame three turnovers to fire the game-winning touchdown pass with six seconds remaining. He also led Nebraska with 205 rush yards and two scores. Overall the Huskers tallied 313 rush yards on a 7.8 YPC average while the defense limited MSU QB Maxwell to just 9-of-27 completions. They'll try to avoid a "hangover" after that big road win and get another quality win over the Nittany Lions.

Penn State isn't eligible for the Big Ten championship or any bowl, so they will play spoiler in both division races. Chances are the Nittany Lions will have an impact on the races with this game and remaining ones against both Indiana and Wisconsin. The Lions bounced back well from their first Big Ten loss two weeks ago with a big win at Purdue last Saturday. PSU was dominant on both sides of the ball, racking up 506 total yards and 25 first downs. QB McGloin passed for over 300 yards with two touchdowns and RB Zwinak ran for 134 yards. The defensive unit held Purdue to just 87 rush yards on a 3.3 YPC average and nine total points (Purdue scored a meaningless touchdown in the final seconds). Penn State is 3-0 in Big Ten road games so far, winning by an average score of 36-10.

Recent history: Last year Penn State faced Nebraska in the first game in over 40 years without head coach Joe Paterno. The Nittany Lions put together a valiant effort, but Nebraksa won 17-14 at home. No doubt PSU will be motivated to avenge that loss with a big home win on Saturday.

Trends: Penn State is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games and 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall. Nebraska is 5-1 ATS in its last five home games.

Injury report: Penn State DT Jordan Hill and TE Kyle Carter are both day-to-day for this week's game at Nebraska, coach Bill O'Brien said. RB Curtis Dukes is out for the Nebraska game.

Michigan (-11) vs. Northwestern - 12:00 PM EST - ESPN
UM: Last week at Minnesota: W 35-13
NU: Last week - BYE

The loser of this game is all but eliminated from the Legends division. Michigan did just fine last week without QB Robinson in the lineup. The Wolves started a little slow, leading just 14-7 at halftime over Minnesota. But backup QB Devin Gardner passed for 234 yards and two scores while adding a rushing touchdown - leading the Wolves to a 35-13 victory. Defensively Michigan frustrated Minnesota's freshman QB and also held the Gophers to just 3.3 YPC rushing. Michigan ranks 1st nationally against the pass this season, but they've been vulnerable to strong rushing attacks. Northwestern brings one of the top rushing offenses to town this weekend.

Northwestern has seemingly settled on QB Kain Colter as the full-time option after Siemian didn't get much playing time last game. Northwestern had a huge day offensively against the Hawkeyes two weeks ago. The Wildcats controlled the ball with 49 rushing attempts for 349 yards (7.1 YPC). QB Colter and RB Mark each topped 160 rush yards while the defense held Iowa to just 17 points.

Recent history: Michigan is 6-1 straight-up against the Wildcats the last seven meetings. Northwestern's one victory over that span was in the Big House in 2010. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Last season the Wolverines tallied 541 total yards in the 42-24 victory over the Wildcats. QB Robinson accounted for 454 and four touchdowns alone in that game.

Trends: Northwestern is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games overall and 4-1 ATS in its last five conference games. Michigan is just 10-26 ATS in its last 36 conference games. The final score has remained 'under' the total in four of the last five meetings.

Injury report: Brady Hoke hasn't stated whether or not QB Robinson will play this weekend. Hoke only indicated that he's "getting healthier." Northwestern hopes to regain the services of injured defensive backs Nick VanHoose and Quinn Evans, who are both questionable for this game.

Illinois (+3) vs. Minnesota - 3:30 PM EST - Big Ten Network
UI: Last week at Ohio State: L 22-52
UM: Last week vs. Michigan: L 13-35

Minnesota can gain postseason eligibility for the first time since 2009 with a win here over the Illini. The Gophers are off of a disappointing loss against Michigan where they failed to capitalize on a Robinson-less Wolverine squad. Minnesota squandered numerous chances in the red-zone and couldn't stop Michigan's back-up QB. The good news is that it was another promising start for freshman quarterback Philip Nelson, who passed for 142 yards and one touchdown. The defense will try to get back on track this week against a hapless Illinois offense.

Illinois is officially not going bowling this postseason after its seventh loss of the season last week to Ohio State. The Illini were only losing 6-7 at the end of the first quarter to OSU, but by halftime it was 31-6. The offense managed just 170 total yards, 2.3 yards per carry, and QB Scheelhaase completed 19 passes for 96 yards. Defensively Illinois allowed an astonishing 567 yards and 32 first downs. This D unit actually features a lot of talent, but it hasn't stood a chance in most games this season because their offense can't stay on the field.

Recent history: Minnesota has won its last three trips to Champaign (3-0 ATS) and is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall. Minnesota held Illinois to just 160 yards and 11 first downs in last year's 27-7 victory in Minneapolis. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Trends: Minnesota is 2-5 ATS in its last seven road games and 1-4 ATS in its last five conference games. Illinois is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 conference games. The Illini have failed to cover six straight games overall.

Injury report: Illinois LB Jonathan Brown is out for Saturday's game against Minnesota, coach Tim Beckman confirmed. Brown was an all-Big Ten player in 2011 who is tied for the team lead in tackles and leads the team in tackles for loss. Minnesota WR A.J. Barker is doubtful for the Illinois game. Barker is the Gophers' top receiver with 577 yards & 7 TD's.

Iowa (-5) vs. Purdue - 12:00 PM EST - Big Ten Network
UI: Last week at Indiana: L 21-24
PU: Last week vs. Penn State: L 9-34

Talk about a matchup of two teams that could really use a win. The Boilers have been in a five-week tailspin that might well cost head coach Danny Hope his job. All but one of those losses was by 16+ points and all five were by an average of 21 PPG. Purdue still has a glimmer of hope for a bowl if they win out this season, but things definitely aren't looking up. The defense has allowed an average of 38 points per game over the last six games and offensively the quarterbacks are stalling everything. The trio of TerBush, Marve, and Henry hasn't gotten things done. The Boilers might actually be happy they're on the road this week after the stands at Ross-Ade stadium were mostly empty last Saturday.

Iowa has lost three straight in disheartening fashion after a promising 2-0 start in league play. The Hawkeyes still have a chance to get to a bowl but must win here and then upset either Michigan on the road or Nebraska at home - so chances are pretty slim. The Hawkeyes' loss last week slipped them below .500 for the first time since 2007. Despite a 14-0 start at Indiana in the first seven minutes, the Hawkeyes managed just seven points the rest of the way in the 21-24 loss. QB Vandenberg continued to struggle with just one touchdown and a bad interception in the end-zone. The defense also allowed over 400 yards passing with three touchdowns.

Recent history: Iowa is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in the previous six meetings. Iowa has also won six straight meetings at home and is 4-2 ATS in those games. The Hawks won 31-21 at Purdue last season. QB Vandenberg tossed three touchdowns and Iowa tallied 135 rush yards.

Trends: Purdue is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a double-digit loss at home. The Boilermakers are also 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven conference games. Iowa is 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss. The Hawkeyes are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 conference games.

Injury report: Iowa likely will be without RB Mark Weisman for the second straight game Saturday against Purdue. Purdue WR O.J. Ross likely will play this week against Illinois while RB Raheem Mostert and DT Brandon Taylor are doubtful.

Ohio State - BYE
OSU: Last week vs. Illinois: W 52-22

OSU has won ten straight, who get a well-deserved bye after thumping Illinois last week. Ohio State is 10-0 for the first time since 2007 as it chases its first perfect season since 2002, when it captured a national title. Ohio State has scored 52 points or more in three Big Ten games. QB Miller and RB Hyde form the Big Ten's most dangerous backfield and the defense continues to make big plays.

Michigan State - BYE
MSU: Last week vs. Nebraska: L 24-28

The Spartans suffered another devastating setback Saturday after having Nebraska on the ropes. MSU's last four losses this season have been by four points or fewer and offensive deficiencies can be to blame. The Spartans have one of the game's elite defenses and a porous passing attack is really holding them back. RB Bell had another big day with 188 yards and two scores, but QB Andrew Maxwell had another rough day (9-of-27 passing). Msu still needs another win to become bowl eligible.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25157 Followers:33
11/10/2012 10:14 AM

ACC Report - Week 11

November 9, 2012

It's Week 11, and thankfully I was able to get back on track with my ACC plays. I sat in chilly conditions at Wallace Wade Stadium with my Clemson buddy Matt, watching the Tigers offense move the ball up and down the field. It was also my guaranteed play of the weekend, so even though I was clad in my Duke blue, I can't say I was terribly disappointed.

Joe Williams's ACC Season Picks:
Period: 8/31/2012 to 11/3/2012
Pick Type: All Picks
Record: 20-12-0 ( 62.5% , +675)

PICK DETAILS
Week Record Total
Week 10 (Nov. 1-3) 3-1 Won (+ 200)
Week 9 (Oct. 25-27) 0-4 Lost (- 445)
Week 8 (Oct. 18-20) 2-0 Won (+ 200)
Week 7 (Oct. 11-13) 0-0 - (+/-0)
Week 6 (Oct. 4-6) 2-1 Won (+90)
Week 5 (Sept. 27-29) 3-1 Won (+190)
Week 4 (Sept. 19-22) 3-1 Won (+190)
Week 3 (Sept. 13-15) 3-2 Won (+80)
Week 2 (Sept. 6-8) 2-1 Won (+90)
Week 1 (Aug. 31-Sept. 3) 2-1 Won (+80)

Saturday - Notre Dame at Boston College (ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Five-Star Game

In future years when Notre Dame joins the ACC for all sports except for football, this game would count against their five-team requirement for the football schedule. Over the years, BC has been a thorn in the side of the Irish. When things have been good, average or bad in the past, the Eagles have really stepped up against the gold-domers. It might officially be considered their bowl game this season, especially since they were eliminated from bowl contention with a loss last week. An upset this time around would send shockwaves throughout the college football world. Notre Dame is just 2-5-1 ATS in their past eight games against a team with a losing record, and 1-4 ATS in their past five games in the month of November. BC has not been much better, though, going 5-13 ATS in their past 18 home games, and 1-6 ATS in the past seven overall. In addition, the dog is 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings, but the road team is also 7-2 ATS in the span. So it might be a good idea to shy away from the spread. All signs appear to point to the under for the total. The under is 6-1-1 in ND's past eight road games, and 13-3 in their past 16 against the ACC. The under is 5-1 in BC's past six against Independents, 11-4 in their past 15 home games, and 34-16-1 in their past 51 overall. In the past five meetings, the under has cashed each time.

Saturday - Maryland at Clemson (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Four-Star Game

This game has the potential to be a real beatdown, as no one except for Florida State has been able to slow the Clemson offense. The Terps are just 5-15 ATS in their past 20 games overall, and a dismal 2-9 ATS in their past 11 ACC contests. In addition, they are 0-5 ATS in the month of November, including a loss last week against Ga. Tech. Clemson, meanwhile, has covered six straight games, and they are 5-1 ATS in the past six against a team with a losing record. In this series, though, the road team is 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings, and Maryland is 5-1 ATS in their past six visits to Clemson. However, that can mostly be thrown out the window, because those Maryland squads weren't likely using a linebacker at the quarterback position after losing their first three signal callers to season-ending injuries. Like the ND-BC game above, the under might be the play. The under is 5-0 in five straight meetings in this series at Clemson, and 10-2 in the past 12 meetings overall.

Saturday - Wake Forest at North Carolina State (GamePlan/ESPN3, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Three-Star Game

North Carolina State was embarrassed last weekend against ACC doormat Virginia at home, leading some Wolfpack faithful to howl for the dismissal of head coach Tom O'Brien. A loss this weekend, and it might punch his ticket to the unemployment line. Both of these teams come in searching for their sixth win of the season, so someone is going to finish the day eligible for one of the ACC's bowl bids. Wake Forest is 4-1 ATS in the past five road games, but just 4-10 ATS in their past 14 against a team with a winning record. N.C. State is now just 1-4 ATS in their past five ACC games, and 1-4 ATS in their past five games overall. They've been a hard team to figure, as they were good enough to nip Florida State, but then lose to Virginia. The home team is 13-3 ATS in the past 16 meetings, but Wake is 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings. It might be a good idea to get your action elsewhere, or just flip a coin.

Saturday - Georgia Tech at North Carolina (ACC Network/ESPN3, 12:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Two-Star Game

The Tar Heels have been on a roll, covering seven straight games at Kenan Stadium. They are also a solid 4-1 ATS in their past five home games against a team with a losing road record. The Jackets haven't had a lot of success this season, going 2-6 ATS in their past eight games against a team with a winning record. They are also 4-9 ATS in their past 13 games following a bye week. The over has cashed in six of Ga. Tech's past seven games, and is 4-1 in their past five ACC games. The over is also 6-1 in UNC's past seven home games, and 4-1 in their past five overall. However, the under has cashed in four of the past five meetings between these sides in Chapel Hill.

Saturday - Miami (Fla.) at Virginia (/ANCESPN3, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup One-Star Game

The Hurricanes blow into Charlottesville looking to continue their solid play. They blasted Virginia Tech last Thursday night at home, covering for the sixth straight conference game. Miami is 5-1 ATS in their past six games overall. In addition, Miami is 6-2 ATS in their past eight road games, so they might be a very solid play in this one. Virginia stunned N.C. State on the road in Raleigh last week, piling up a huge lead and winning in surprising fashion. While Virginia is 4-1 ATS in their past five games in the month of November, the Cavaliers are just 1-5 ATS in their past six conference games, 1-8-1 ATS in their past 10 games on grass, and 1-9-1 ATS in their past 11 games overall. In addition, they are 0-5-1 ATS in their past six games at Scott Stadium.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: