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Michigan State vs. Wisconsin, 10/27/2012 15:30
Point Spread: -6/-110 Wisconsin
Saturday's NCAAF Free Pick: Wisconsin -6
Even though Michigan State covered last week as a 8-point dog at Michigan, I can't see them covering the spread on the road against a Wisconsin team that is playing it's best football of the season.
The Spartans ended up losing to Michigan 10-12 on a last second field goal, giving them two heartbreaking losses in a row. They lost at home to Iowa the previous week in overtime in a game they dominated up until the final minutes. This team invested so much energy into beating their instate rivals that I just can't see them coming out with the type of energy needed on either side of the ball to keep up with Wisconsin. Michigan State is just 15-30 ATS off a road loss against a conference rival since 1992.
Wisconsin has scored 27 or more points in each of their last five games and have finally got the running game going. There's no question Michigan State has a top notch defense, but it's going to be hard for them to keep playing at a high level with the lack of confidence they have in their offense. It's also worth noting that the Spartans have allowed 100 or more yards in three of their four Big Ten games.
Not only do I think the Badgers will be able to move the ball and put up points on the Spartans, but I'm extremely confident that the Wisconsin defense will be able to shutdown Michigan State's poor excuse of an offense. The Badgers have held five of their eight opponents to 14 points or less, including each of their last three.
Wisconsin is 8-1 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons and are 16-4 ATS in home games off 2 straight wins against conference rivals since 1992. BET THE BADGERS!