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Cnotes Wednesday's Best Bets MLB-WNBA !

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On 09/21/2011 12:16 AM in MLB
Dan Haren, Angels Face Toronto Blue Jays

The Angels have dropped Dan Haren’s last four starts away from Anaheim.
The Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Blue Jays play the third game of their four-game series Wednesday evening from the Rogers Centre in Toronto. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. (ET).

The Angels go into this series with Toronto five games back of the Texas Rangers for the division lead in the American League West. The Blue Jays are currently 14 ½ games behind the division-leading New York Yankees in the American League East and have been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.

The Blue Jays lead the season series 4-3 over Los Angeles going into Tuesday's contest that was still pending. The home team has won five of the first seven encounters.

Wednesday night’s game will be the ninth game of the Angels 10-game road trip with the Halos 3-4 through the first seven of those games.

The Angels will be sending Dan Haren (15-9, 3.24) to the mound Wednesday to face the Blue Jays. Los Angeles is 3-4 in Haren’s last seven starts overall with all four losses coming on the road. His ERA is a bloated 6.16 in his last five road starts.

Haren has faced the Blue Jays just once this season, pitching seven innings and allowing five hits and three earned runs in the Halos' loss to Toronto. He is 6-2 in his career versus the Blue Jays in nine starts (3-0 in five starts at the Rogers Centre), with an earned run average of 5.23 in 62 innings pitched.

Making just his third start of the season for Toronto will be Dustin McGowan (0-0, 7.50). The right-hander has dealt with numerous injuries dating back to 2008, including fraying of the labrum in his pitching shoulder, knee surgery to repair articular cartilage damage and a torn rotator cuff.

Prior to his three starts in the month of September, McGowan had not pitched since July 8, 2008.

The Blue Jays are hitting 22 points lower versus righties than they are against lefties this season.

The ‘over’ is 14-6 in the Angels' last 20 road games and 7-2 in Haren’s last nine starts overall. Blue Jays starting pitchers have posted a 5.22 ERA at home this season, which is 0.58 points higher than Toronto’s team ERA at home.

Toronto shortstop Yunel Escobar is questionable for Wednesday’s game versus the Angels. Escobar has missed seven straight games going into Tuesday’s contest with an injured left elbow.

Ted Barrett will call balls and strikes. The Angels are 3-2 in their last five games since 2009 with him behind the plate.

Wednesday’s weather forecast calls for mostly clear skies with an overnight temperature of around 57 degrees. Expect the Rogers Centre roof to be open.
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09/21/2011 12:21 AM
Wednesday’s betting tips: Cubs feasting on lefties


Who’s hot

MLB: The Chicago Cubs have won their last five games against a left-handed starter. They’re set as +105 home underdogs against Milwaukee lefty Randy Wolf.

MLB: St. Louis has won 10 of its last 12.

Who’s not

MLB: Toronto is 5-12 in its last 17 games as an underdog.

MLB: Tampa Bay is 5-13 in James Shields’ last 18 starts against the Yankees.

Key stat

74 – Better than 74 percent of the NFL’s games through two weeks have played over the total. Through the season's first two weeks, 172 touchdowns have been scored - a record for most in the opening weeks of any previous campaign - for 1,502 combined points. Quarterbacks are largely responsible for the boom, having netted 15,771 passing yards in that time, also a record through the first two weeks.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco Giants – Kung Fu Panda plans to play out the rest of the schedule but word has it he isn’t 100 percent. Manager Bruce Bochy indicated Sandoval could undergo offseason surgery on his left shoulder. The slugging switch hitter hasn’t been able to bat right-handed since about the middle of last month.

Game of the day

Atlanta Braves at Florida Marlins (-125, 7.5)

Notable quotable

"I don't know. I really don't. I understand the nature of the injury as much as you can without being in medicine. We'll just have to see how it goes. It has everything to do with just his ability to handle the pain, and we know he has a bunch of it. We'll see how that goes. He'll be monitored obviously extremely closely regarding the pneumothorax and we'll see how it goes." – Jerry Jones on whether quarterback Tony Romo would be fit to start Monday night after fracturing a couple ribs and puncturing a lung in Week 2’s overtime win over San Francisco. Most books currently have the Cowboys-Redskins game off the board.

Notes and tips

It’s a slow day in the sports world, but if you’re absolutely desperate to get some NHL betting in, there are 10 games on the preseason schedule Wednesday and you can find some lines if you hunt around the online shops. Some of the more interesting matchups include the New Jersey Devils at the New York Rangers, the Detroit Red Wings at the Pittsburgh Penguins and the San Jose Sharks at Anaheim Ducks.

Chicago White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen would like to know his fate before he leaves on a family vacation at the conclusion of the season. Guillen has been with the club since 2004, guiding the White Sox to a World Series title in that time. He had his option for 2012 exercised by ownership in January. But the 47-year-old acknowledges that his team has fallen short of expectations and is holding himself accountable for the disappointment. Guillen is scheduled to leave for a trip to Spain on Sept. 28 - two days after the season is over - and wants his future decided beforehand. The White Sox are third in the AL Central and were eliminated from playoff contention last week.

University of Texas quarterback Garrett Gilbert had shoulder surgery and will miss the rest of the season, the school announced Tuesday. Gilbert hurt his shoulder in the season opener against Rice on Sept. 3. However, the school said nothing about the injury until Sept. 13 - three days after Gilbert started against BYU but was removed in the second quarter. Doctors recommended the surgery after being told by Gilbert that his shoulder was getting worse. He is expected to make a full recovery. A junior, Gilbert was 15-of-31 for 247 yards, one TD and two interceptions before the injury. He threw for 2,744 yards, 10 TDs and 17 interceptions in 2010. Case McCoy, the younger brother of former Texas quarterback Colt McCoy, has replaced Gilbert for the Longhorns.
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09/21/2011 12:23 AM
Wednesday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers


Streaking

Randy Wolf, Milwaukee Brewers (13-9, 3.45 ERA)

Wolf has been pretty solid through his last three starts, allowing six runs over that span. He held the Reds to three runs on seven hits over seven innings in his last trip to the hill while striking out seven. The veteran lefty pounded the strike zone with 71 strikes in his 101 pitches. Wolf has thrown at least six innings in 18 of his last 19 starts.

Ubaldo Jimenez, Cleveland Indians (10-11, 4.49 ERA)

It certainly took Jimenez to show the Indians what he’s capable of, but he has now put together five straight quality starts with a 2.78 ERA during that streak. He held the Twins to just one earned run in 6 1/3 innings with four strikeouts the last time he took the hill, boosting that number to 30 in his last 32 1/3 innings.

Slumping

Kevin Slowey, Minnesota Twins (0-6, 6.51 ERA)

Things have gotten pretty ugly for Slowey. He obviously hasn’t won all season and has been pulled in the fourth inning in his last two outings, allowing 11 runs over that span. The only real bright side on his stat line is the five walks he has issued in more 47 innings.

“I don’t think I have the lexicon to describe how disappointed I am in how I threw today and how I have thrown most of the year, to be honest with you,” Slowey told reporters recently.

Derek Lowe, Atlanta Braves (9-15, 4.94 ERA)

Lowe is 3-8 with a fat 6.12 ERA in his last 11 starts and lasted just 2 1/3 innings in his last outing when he allowed nine hits and six earned runs before getting the hook.

“This was terrible," Lowe told reporters after that one. "It was non-competitive pitching from the first pitch... Honestly, what can you say? They did anything they wanted. You tried to make competitive pitches, and it just didn’t happen. Again, bad game at the wrong time."
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09/21/2011 12:25 AM
Hot lines: Wednesday's best MLB bets


Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds (-135, 8)

Hey, if you have nothing better to do Wednesday afternoon, why not tune into the Astros-Reds matinee and see if Bronson Arroyo implodes on the mound?

He has already given up a franchise-high 44 home runs this season and is now just four dingers away from the NL record of 48, a distinction Jose Lima owns. If you’re thinking four homers in a single game might be stretching it even for Arroyo, consider that he did just allow four dingers in a loss to Milwaukee and three more in the start before that against Colorado.

"It could be age," the 34-year-old pitcher told reporters of his problems. "It could be my arm. It could be getting sick in spring training. It could be a bunch of things. All I know is, during the offseason, you've got to contemplate making some adjustments. Obviously, you have to do something to try not to duplicate this season."

We’ll jump all over Houston in this spot and hope for more homers. Sorry, Bronson.

Pick: Astros

San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies (-110, 9.5)

Neither of these teams have much to play for, but Troy Tulowitzki’s expected return should give the Rockies a bit of a boost.

Tulo has been the team’s most energetic player all season, but has been on the shelf for the last week with a hip injury. According to Rockies beat writer Tony Renck, the 26-year-old shortstop will suit up for Wednesday’s game.

However, he’ll probably be used sparingly down the stretch.

“The thing you have to keep in mind is, we've got nine games to play,” manager Jim Tracy told reporters. “And you don't want to feel like you end up in a situation where, if a key component like that were to get hurt, that fractures you going into 2012. You have to be mindful of that."

He is hitting .304 with 30 homers and 105 RBIs this season and will be facing rookie Anthony Bass, who makes his second MLB start.

Pick: Rockies
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09/21/2011 12:31 AM
Top 5 MLB Trends

TB/NYY are 11-0 in Novas last 11 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.

BAL/BOS Under is 11-0 in Becketts last 11 starts during game 4 of a series.

TEX/OAK Over is 8-0-3 in Wilsons last 11 starts during game 2 of a series.

CHW/CLE Over is 9-0 in CLE last 9 games vs. a right-handed starter.

TB / NYY Under is 5-0-3 in NYY last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
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09/21/2011 01:09 AM
Game Score Status Pick Amount

Houston - 12:35 PM ET Houston +126 500
Cincinnati - Over 8 500

Milwaukee - 2:20 PM ET Chi. Cubs +100 500
Chi. Cubs -

San Diego - 3:10 PM ET Colorado -108 500
Colorado - Under 9.5 500

Pittsburgh - 3:40 PM ET Pittsburgh +169 500
Arizona - Under 9.5 500
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09/21/2011 05:28 PM
Diamond Trends - Wednesday

September 21, 2011

SU TREND OF THE DAY:


The Nationals are 0-16 since May 01, 2010 as a dog after a win in which they left 18+ men on base and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1600 when playing against.


OU TREND OF THE DAY:


The Pirates are 0-8-2 OU since May 16, 2010 when Ross Ohlendorf starts as a road 140+ dog for a net profit of $800 when playing the under.


STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:


The Pirates are 0-9 since June 19, 2009 when Ross Ohlendorf starts after he had a WHIP of less than one his last start for a net profit of $920 when playing against.


MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:


The Rays are 1-10 O/U (-2.6 rpg) in database history (since 2004) the first game of a doubleheader.


TODAY’S TRENDS:


The White Sox are 0-9 since April 13, 2010 as a road dog after a one run win and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $900 when playing against.

The Pirates are 0-7 since April 11, 2010 as a 170+ dog after a win and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $700 when playing against.

The Giants are 5-0 since September 07, 2010 when Tim Lincecum starts on the road after August for a net profit of $665.
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09/21/2011 05:31 PM
Rangers try to retain dominance of A's Wednesday

TEXAS RANGERS (89-65)

at OAKLAND ATHLETICS (69-85)


First pitch: Wednesday, 10:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Texas -150, Oakland +140, Total: 7

The Rangers look to inch closer to another A.L. West title when they play the second of a three-game set in Oakland Wednesday night.

This pitching matchup should be very good, as Texas lefty C.J. Wilson (3-1, 0.92 ERA in September) and Oakland righty Brandon McCarthy (5-3, 2.95 ERA since August 1) have pitched very well of late. But the Rangers have owned the A’s, winning 11 of 12 against them (including four straight in Oakland), and Texas has scored at least four runs each of the four times they’ve faced McCarthy this year (three Texas wins). The Oakland bats have gone cold again (24 runs, .224 BA through the first eight games of the current homestand), and the FoxSheets have a four-star trend that clinches TEXAS as the pick:

Play On - Any team (TEXAS) – red-hot hitting team - batting .315 or better over their last 15 games against opponent with an on-base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games. (40-9 over the last 5 seasons, 81.6%, +29.7 units. Rating = 4*).

Wilson (16-7, 2.97 ERA) has a 33-to-7 K/BB ratio over 29.1 innings this month. He’s been better on the road all year, going 8-5 with a 2.31 ERA over 16 road starts and shut down the A’s in Arlington just 10 days ago, striking out 11 and allowing just five hits over eight scoreless innings.

The A’s are second-to-last in the American League in OPS against lefties (.653) and the majority of their lineup has struggled against Wilson over the years, especially C Kurt Suzuki (.209 OPS over 20 career plate appearances) OF David DeJesus (.329 OPS over 19 PA’s), SS Cliff Pennington (.513 OPS in 18 PA’s) and DH Hideki Matsui (.411 OPS in 18 PA’s).

McCarthy (9-8, 3.35 ERA) is 6-3 with a 2.77 ERA over 12 home starts this year. His last two starts against the Rangers haven’t gone well though. On August 12, he got knocked around for seven runs (five earned) over 3.1 innings at home. He then allowed four runs (three earned) over six innings in Arlington on Sept. 9. The two Rangers who have faced him most often over the years have hit McCarthy hard: 3B Adrian Beltre (1.072 OPS over 24 career plate appearances) and DH Michael Young (1.103 OPS in 16 PA’s).

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09/21/2011 05:33 PM
Wednesday’s betting tips: Cubs feasting on lefties

Who’s hot

MLB: The Chicago Cubs have won their last five games against a left-handed starter. They’re set as +105 home underdogs against Milwaukee lefty Randy Wolf.

MLB: St. Louis has won 10 of its last 12.

Who’s not

MLB: Toronto is 5-12 in its last 17 games as an underdog.

MLB: Tampa Bay is 5-13 in James Shields’ last 18 starts against the Yankees.

Key stat

74 – Better than 74 percent of the NFL’s games through two weeks have played over the total. Through the season's first two weeks, 172 touchdowns have been scored - a record for most in the opening weeks of any previous campaign - for 1,502 combined points. Quarterbacks are largely responsible for the boom, having netted 15,771 passing yards in that time, also a record through the first two weeks.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco Giants – Kung Fu Panda plans to play out the rest of the schedule but word has it he isn’t 100 percent. Manager Bruce Bochy indicated Sandoval could undergo offseason surgery on his left shoulder. The slugging switch hitter hasn’t been able to bat right-handed since about the middle of last month.

Game of the day

Atlanta Braves at Florida Marlins (-125, 7.5)

Notable quotable

"I don't know. I really don't. I understand the nature of the injury as much as you can without being in medicine. We'll just have to see how it goes. It has everything to do with just his ability to handle the pain, and we know he has a bunch of it. We'll see how that goes. He'll be monitored obviously extremely closely regarding the pneumothorax and we'll see how it goes." – Jerry Jones on whether quarterback Tony Romo would be fit to start Monday night after fracturing a couple ribs and puncturing a lung in Week 2’s overtime win over San Francisco. Most books currently have the Cowboys-Redskins game off the board.

Notes and tips

It’s a slow day in the sports world, but if you’re absolutely desperate to get some NHL betting in, there are 10 games on the preseason schedule Wednesday and you can find some lines if you hunt around the online shops. Some of the more interesting matchups include the New Jersey Devils at the New York Rangers, the Detroit Red Wings at the Pittsburgh Penguins and the San Jose Sharks at Anaheim Ducks.

Chicago White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen would like to know his fate before he leaves on a family vacation at the conclusion of the season. Guillen has been with the club since 2004, guiding the White Sox to a World Series title in that time. He had his option for 2012 exercised by ownership in January. But the 47-year-old acknowledges that his team has fallen short of expectations and is holding himself accountable for the disappointment. Guillen is scheduled to leave for a trip to Spain on Sept. 28 - two days after the season is over - and wants his future decided beforehand. The White Sox are third in the AL Central and were eliminated from playoff contention last week.

University of Texas quarterback Garrett Gilbert had shoulder surgery and will miss the rest of the season, the school announced Tuesday. Gilbert hurt his shoulder in the season opener against Rice on Sept. 3. However, the school said nothing about the injury until Sept. 13 - three days after Gilbert started against BYU but was removed in the second quarter. Doctors recommended the surgery after being told by Gilbert that his shoulder was getting worse. He is expected to make a full recovery. A junior, Gilbert was 15-of-31 for 247 yards, one TD and two interceptions before the injury. He threw for 2,744 yards, 10 TDs and 17 interceptions in 2010. Case McCoy, the younger brother of former Texas quarterback Colt McCoy, has replaced Gilbert for the Longhorns.
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09/21/2011 05:35 PM
Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Current Super Bowl odds:

4-1 New England-- Would you bet against them?

11-2 Green Bay-- Rivalry game with Chicago this week.

15-2 Philadelphia-- Need to keep Number 7 in one piece.

10-1 Houston-San Diego-New Orleans-- All fun teams to watch.

12-1 NJ Jets- If this was a talking contest, they'd be 2-5.

14-1 Pittsburgh/Baltimore-- My Rams could be in trouble this week.


*********************


Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud.........

13) We know that most teams play one home game, one road game the first two weeks of the NFL season, but not everyone does that, so I took a day this summer, did a little research and looked up how teams who played their home/road opener after Week 2 did against the spread in those games.

This study goes from 1988-2010, except that we omitted 2001 numbers, since the Week 2 part of the schedule was played at the end of the season, because of there being no football on 9/16/01, five days after the terror attacks. I felt those were unique circumstances, so I left them out of the study.

12) Since 1988, Week 3 home favorites who played their first two games on road are 15-33, home underdogs are 5-11, for a total of 20-44 (31.3%) against the spread. Those are pretty strong numbers.

11) By way of contrast, Week 3 road teams that played the first two weeks at home are 44-31-1 against the spread, 10-9 as favorites, 34-22-1 as underdogs. There are several of these scenarios in the NFL this week, so make sure you read my game write-ups to see which ones they are.

10) Over the last 14 years, Detroit Lions are 0-7 against the spread as a road favorite; they last covered as a road fave at Tampa in 1996, under coach Wayne Fontes.

9) In two games, Dallas Cowboys have 10 sacks; they have a solid pass rush, but in those two games, Dallas opponents have only five penalties for 25 yards. Their opponents have dropped back to pass roughly 78 times and haven’t been called for holding once? Wow.

8) In their first two games, Chiefs lost the field position battle by 23/21 yards; its almost unheard of for a team to lose field position so badly two games in a row. Bills/Lions combined to start 10 of 27 drives in Detroit territory, scoring 55 points on those 10 drives.

7) Why don’t the Giants run the 2:00 offense the whole game? Seems to me that’s the only time Eli Manning looks comfortable playing football.

6) NFL trade deadline is Week 6. Bengals are asking for a #2 pick for Carson Palmer, whose value has to go down with each passing week. Mike Brown should realize that Joe Montana was a 3rd-round pick, cut his losses and compromise by trading Palmer for a lower pick, but still someone who could help his team down the road.

5) How much is Peyton Manning worth? Back in July, the M Resort in Las Vegas posted the spread for all 256 games on this year’s NFL schedule. Colts opened in July as 1.5-point favorites against the Steelers this week; now, after two weeks of play, they’re 10.5-point home dogs.

4) In their first two games, Redskins were penalized six times for 40 yards; their opponents were flagged 18 times for 160 yards.

3) Eagles have allowed six touchdowns in two games, but four of the six came on drives of less than 50 yards.

2) Seahawks have been outscored 33-0 in first half of their two games; how soon before Charlie Whitehurst begins warming up in the bullpen? Would that help?

1) Interesting thing ESPN.com does is run an article by an anonymous athlete in each sport; today, NFL Player X pointed out that in an average offseason, he works out around 100 times between March-July.
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