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Miami vs. Notre Dame, 10/06/2012 19:30
Point Spread: +14/-105 Miami
Miami Hurricanes +14
Odds makers aren't sold on Miami because its defense has been horrendous. However, I'll gladly take the points here as the Hurricanes go up against a Notre Dame team that has been quiet offensively. I don't believe the Fighting Irish, who rank 97th in the country with 351.2 yards per game, are explosive enough on offense to cover this hefty number.
The Notre Dame defense has been spectacular, but it is yet to see an offense as dynamic as the one it will see Saturday. Miami is averaging 472.6 yards and 35.6 points and it is doing most of its damage through the air. In fact, it ranks 15th in the nation with 328.4 passing yards per game. This is significant because the Irish have shown they can slow down the run, but they've yet to be really tested through the air by a QB like Stephen Morris, who has passed for 1,002 yards with 7 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in his last 2 games. Coach Al Golden has turned Morris loose, and that could spell trouble for Notre Dame.
With as explosive as Miami is offensively, no lead is safe for Notre Dame. Catching this many points, it also gives us a solid backdoor opportunity with the Hurricanes if they get behind.
The Hurricanes are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 versus a team with a winning record.
Also, teams coached by Golden are 9-0 ATS as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points. His teams have only lost by an average of 4.7 points in these games. His Miami teams are a perfect 7-0 ATS versus good teams that are outscoring opponents by 10 points or more per game. They have actually defeated these foes by an average score of 28.6 to 24.0. Take the points.