09/25/2011 12:24 PM
Total Talk - Week 3
September 24, 2011
Week 2 Recap
If you’re a gambler that likes to be ‘over’ tickets then you’ve been doing well this NFL season. The ‘over’ went 10-5-1 (67%) in Week 2 and that was after the sportsbooks made healthy adjustments from the opening weekend to offset the action from the betting public. Guess what? It didn’t matter and once again, the books have made even more tweaks, perhaps too many for Week 3.
We had six totals in Week 1 close at 39 points or less and that number was split in half last weekend to three. For Week 3, it appears that the Steelers-Colts (39.5) matchup could fit in this situation, which is the only one. Then again, that battle will be the primetime affair on Sunday and all total players should be aware that every game under the lights has gone ‘over’ this season.
After two weeks of action, the ‘over’ has gone 21-8-3 (72%) on the season.
What’s the reason behind the shootouts?
VegasInsider.com handicapper Lee Kostroski and his ASA stable of experts are still trying to answer that question. He said, “While we can't say for sure it may have to do with the lockout and the shorter prep time along with conditioning for the players and coaches. Could it be the rule changes regarding defensive back and less hitting in practices?”
“ One thing for sure is that passing, league wide, is certainly up this year as teams are averaging 246.4 yards per game passing in the first two weeks compared to the 2010 average of 221.3 YPG. On average the league is completing a combined 27.2 more passes per week this season compared to 2010.”
“It's been said the NFL is turning into a pass-first league and the numbers from the first two weeks certainly support that thinking. In 2010 the percentage of pass plays called by offensive coordinators was 57% per game. This year that number has trended up to 59%. On average teams are running 63 plays per game thus far this season which is the exact average of 2010. It's interesting to note that 12 teams are averaging over 6.0 yards per play this season compared to only three teams finishing above that number last season. “
“Explosive plays are clearly contributing to the higher scoring games too as teams are converting points inside the Red Zone just 48% of the time this season compared to 53% all of last season.”
Whether you win or you lose, you should always grade the outcomes, especially if you’re betting every football weekend. Watching the DirecTV shortcuts on Monday and Tuesday is a great way to handicap, but even looking at a box score will tell you so much more than the final.
Gamblers, particularly ‘under’ bettors who took the following games witnessed some crazy finishes and tough losses.
Oakland-Buffalo: Scoreless after 15 minutes, 73 the rest of the way, including 35 in the fourth quarter.
Green Bay-Carolina: A conservative 13-7 score at half turns out to be a 30-23 final. And the Packers kicked three field goals in one quarter.
Cleveland-Indianapolis: Probably the toughest one to swallow if you had the ‘under’ here. Seventeen points in the last four minutes. Ouch!
Dallas-San Francisco: Another 0-0 score after the first quarter. Still, 30 points in the second help the cause.
San Diego-New England and Philadelphia-Atlanta: Playing the ‘under’ on these games is always tough due to the prolific attacks involved and bettors witnessed that. The Pats and Bolts combined for 29 in the fourth, while the Battle of the Birds saw a 42-spot posted.
Total players chasing their bets at the break watched the ‘over’ go 10-6 in the second-half of Week 2.
New England at Buffalo: If you’re looking to fade an inflated number, then this is the game for you. The total opened at 51, and has spiked to 54 at some shops. That’s ridiculous. Even when the Patriots were blasting people during their undefeated season that fell short in the Super Bowl, the totals would rarely be over 50 points. The Bills have come out firing with 41 and 38 in their first two weeks, but will that last? Does Buffalo really think it can beat New England in a shootout? Considering the Bills have posted 3, 10, 0, 10 and 6 in their last five home encounters against the Pats, maybe a high-scoring outcome could help their chances.
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia: Three of the last four in this series has gone ‘over’ the number, but make a note that the Giants have posted 17 points in each of their last two trips to Philadelphia. And despite putting up 28 last Monday, the defense added seven points. However, the Rams scored four times (3 FGs) and definitely left points off the board.
Detroit at Minnesota: The Lions and Vikings have watched the ‘under’ cash in six straight meetings. During that span, Detroit has cracked 20 points once. Vikings’ offense looks lethargic, which has hurt a defense (24 PPG) that was once dominant.
Kansas City at San Diego: The Chiefs have scored 10 total points in two games, yet the ‘over’ has cashed in each affair. That’s because your defense has allowed 89 points. Number started high (45) but is slowly creeping down. The ‘under’ went 2-0 between the pair in 2010.
Arizona at Seattle: For the past three seasons, the ‘over/under’ has gone 1-1 in this head-to-head series. Does that mean you pass and do the opposite of the second encounter? Make a note that Seattle has score no points in the first half through two games.
Green Bay at Chicago: Seven straight ‘under’ tickets in this series, yet we have a total hovering around 45 points.
Atlanta at Tampa Bay: Both battles went ‘over’ last year, which snapped a four-game ‘under’ run in the series. Bucs have watched both of their games go ‘over’ this season.
Washington at Dallas: The ‘under’ has gone 3-1 in the last four meetings, including a split last season. Last year, the Cowboys saw all eight of their home games go ‘over’ the number, which included a 33-30 shootout against the ‘Skins.
As mentioned above, every game played under the lights this season has gone ‘over’ the number, which is surprising since these contests are always shaded higher due to the late push from the betting public. Some bettors may’ve had the Giants-Rams ‘over/under’ at 44 last Monday, while others could’ve shopped for the hook in either direction and pulled the quick middle between 43 ½ and 44 ½ points.
This week, we have two more games and something tells us that the streak could end here.
Pittsburgh at Indianapolis: The Steelers’ offense hasn’t looked sharp in terms of points but they are putting up the yards. Quarterback Kerry Collins will get better with Indy as the season progresses but it’s hard to see him mustering up anything special against Pitt’s defense on SNF.
Washington at Dallas: (See above)
Perhaps we should’ve waited another week to hop back on the gridiron. We put up a 1-3 spot last Sunday, losing all three of our straight plays and barely cashing the teaser. With all bets based on one-unit, the deficit stands at minus $230.
Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Houston-New Orleans 52
Best Under: San Francisco-Cincinnati 40.5
Best Team Total: Rams Over 19.5
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over Houston-New Orleans 43
Over Baltimore-St. Louis 33
Under San Francisco-Cincinnati 49.5
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: