Saturday, September 24
Georgia won its last eight games vs Ole Miss, with underdogs covering five of last seven; Dawgs won last four visits here, but only one of four was by more than 7 points. Both coaches squarely on hot seat. Georgia is 5-7-1 in last 13 games as road favorite, 8-13-1 coming off win. Rebels covered one of last four as home dog- they lost 30-7 at Vanderbilt last week, outrushed 281-85. Not good. Georgia allowed 80 points in losses to Boise St/South Carolina. Both teams' only win is against I-AA club.
Underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in Cal's last seven visits to Seattle, as Bears lost last two trips here 42-10/37-23. Huskies are 4-3 as home fave under Sarkisian, after being 1-9 in last 10 tries before he was coach. Cal had an easy win over I-AA foe last week, while Washington was losing 51-38 at Nebraska squad that started three walk-ons on offensive line. Bears won only road game 36-33 in OT at Colorado, in game where Buffs outgained them by 212 yards. Since 2005, California is 4-7 as a road underdog.
SEC turned down West Virginia for membership this week, not sure that factors in here, but do know West Virginia is home dog for first time in six years; this will be a wild night in Morgantown. LSU already has two wins away from home, beating Oregon 40-27 (-1) in Dallas, then winning 19-6 at Mississippi State last week (-3.5). Mountaineers trailed Nofolk State 12-10 at half two weeks ago, then held off mediocre Maryland club 37-31 last week, getting outscored 21-10 in second half. LSU is 5-6-1 in its last twelve games as a road favorite.
Michigan coach Hoke was San Diego State's coach last two years; when Wolverines hired him, he said he would've walked all way to Ann Arbor from San Diego for this job. Betcha veteran Aztec players liked hearing that. SDSU covered five of last seven as a road dog; they struggled with both Army (14-all at half), Washington State (14-17 at half) last couple games, but won both 23-20/42-24. Michigan is 5-11 in last 16 games as a home favorite; they're +6 in turnovers, have conference opener up next.
Georgia Tech is 11-2 in last 13 games vs North Carolina, winning last six here by average score of 30-20 (3-3 vs spread); Jackets have 115 points, 986 rushing yards in two wins vs I-A opponents, with 378 yards thru air on only 10 completions (17 PA). Tar Heels covered five of last seven as road dog; soph QB Renner has unnatural poise for hia age. Underdogs covered five of last seven series games. UNC is just 7-22 on 3rd down vs I-A teams; they'll need more first downs to keep Tech offense off field.
Florida covered 10 of last 13 games as road favorite, but has Alabama up next, so possible trap game in Lexington vs Kentucky squad Gators have beaten 14 times in row, covering last four; Gators won last seven visits here, with five of seven wins by 21+ points. Wildcats had only 35 yards on ground in home loss to rival Louisville last week; UK is 3-5 as a home dog last 3+ years; they're 8-13-1 vs spread in game after last 22 losses. Florida won last three series games by average score of 51-8.
Underdogs are 5-0-1 vs spread in last six Notre Dame-Pitt games, with Irish 3-2 in last five visits here. Notre Dame has gained 432 yards a game but turned ball over 13 times in three games (-8), worst turnover ratio in country: Irish covered only one of last four as road favorite. Pitt blew big lead at Iowa last week, blowing 24-3 lead late in third quarter, losing to Hawkeyes 31-27. Panthers are 9-2 vs spread in game following last 11 losses; they're 9-7 in last 16 games as home underdog.
Home side won eight of last nine Florida State-Clemson games; FSU lost last four visits to Clemson by average score of 31-16; since 2004, State is just 8-12 as road favorites, but they're 16-8 vs spread in game following their last 24 losses. Clemson failed to cover its last three games as home dog; they're 8-6 in game following last 14 wins. Tigers still haven't led game at half (tied with Wofford, trailed Troy by 3). FSU QB Manuel was banged up last week. First road game of year for Seminoles.
Fresno State won last six games vs Idaho (4-2 vs spread) with last year's 23-20 home win only one of six by less than 10 points- they won last three visits here, 31-21/37-24/40-10, but Bulldogs are struggling so far in 2011, getting outrushed 216-84 in shaky 27-22 win over North Dakota last week- Idaho beat UND 44-14 the week before. Since 2006, Vandals are 6-10 as a home dog. Bulldogs have been outscored 58-25 in second half; they covered five of last six games as a road favorite.
UCLA/Oregon State are both struggling; Beavers switched to Mannion at QB this week, while Bruins named Brehaut starter, first time Neuheisel has named starting QB that early in week. Oregon State covered twice in last seven games as road favorite. UCLA is 4-12 as road underdog with Neuheisel, 5-9 in game following its last 14 losses. Underdog covered 7 of last 10 series games, with Bruins winning three of last four trips here. UCLA got whacked at home by Texas last week; Beavers had a bye.
Oklahoma State scored 38-36-56 points in winning last three games vs Texas A&M, with four of last five in series decided by 5 or less points; Cowboys gained 543+ yards in all three games this year, scoring 52.3 ppg in wins by 27-23-36 points- they're 7-6 in last 13 games as a dog on road. Aggies covered seven of last ten as home favorite; they won first two games this year by 32-30 points. Both sides stepping up in class in this one. Boith teams have senior QB; does that make over the play?
Underdogs are 4-1-1 vs spread in last six Oregon-Arizona games, with Ducks scoring 48-44-55 points in winning last three games by 19-3-10 points. Arizona gave up 37-37 points in losing last two weeks to prolific offenses of Oklahoma State (37-14), Stanford (37-10). Over last decade, Oregon is 18-13 as road favorite; Arizona is 9-2-1 in last dozen games as a home dog. Ducks won six of last seven visits here, with wins by 3-7-38-17-35-3 points. Oregon's last two games were against cupcakes, hard to tell much they've improved since opening 40-27 loss to LSU.
USC won its last 11 games vs Arizona State, winning last five visits to Tempe by 5-20-10-20-6 points- this is first time since '00 Sun Devils are favored over USC. ASU is 12-7 as home favorite under Erickson. First road game for Trojan squad that had only three takeaways in three home wins, by 2-9-21 points- over last decade, they're 6-3 as road underdog. ASU came close to beating Trojans last two years, losing 14-9/34-33; in last six series games, underdogs are 4-1-1 against the spread.