cnotes Posts:25142 Followers:33
10/06/2012 09:51 AM

NLDS series preview and pick: Reds vs. Giants

Check out our breakdown of the NL Divisional Series between the Cincinnati Reds and San Francisco Giants.

Cincinnati Reds (97-65) vs. San Francisco Giants (94-68)

Regular season head-to-head: The Reds won the season series 4-3. Three of the seven contests were decided by one run.

Series odds: N/A

PITCHING

The Reds’ starting rotation boasts four pitchers with ERAs under 4.00. The five starters were incredibly durable during the regular season, making every start except one. But the real strength of the Cincinnati ball club is its bullpen. Fireballer Aroldis Chapman leads a deep relief corps that registered a league-low 2.65 ERA this season.

Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain had a combined 6-1 record during San Francisco’s unforgettable championship run in 2010 and they’ll be joined by Madison Bumgarner and Ryan Vogelsong down the stretch this year. The bullpen will certainly miss the playoff experience and swagger of closer Brian Wilson, but the group still features some power arms in Sergio Romo and Santiago Casilla that should be able to close out games.

Edge: Giants


HITTING

The Cincinnati offense ranked 21st in the majors in runs per game (4.13) and 17th in team batting average (.251) this season. Slugger Joey Votto batted just .227 against Giants pitching this season and also injured his left knee sliding into third base on June 30 at San Francisco, which led to a six-week stint on the disabled list. The Reds still managed to put up runs in Votto’s absence because of other offensive contributors like Jay Bruce (34 homers, 99 RBIs) and Ryan Ludwick (26 homers).

San Francisco has an impressive 30-14 record since OF Melky Cabrera was suspended for using performance-enhancing drugs. Buster Posey has been a monster at the plate, becoming the first catcher to lead the NL in hitting (.336 BA) since Ernie Lombardi in 1942.

Edge: Reds


INTANGIBLES

Cincinnati put up the second best record in baseball, just a single game behind the Nationals. The Reds finished the campaign with 97 victories – their most in the regular season since the tail end of the Big Red Machine days in 1976.

The Giants finished with 94 wins, the most the franchise has had since 2003, when they won 100 games. Cain gets the ball for Game 1 on Saturday. He has surrendered a run in 21 1/3 innings postseason innings, all during the 2010 championship campaign.

Edge: Giants


PREDICTION: Giants in five games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25142 Followers:33
10/06/2012 09:52 AM

ALDS preview and pick: Athletics vs. Tigers

Check out our breakdown of the AL Divisional Series between the Oakland Athletics and Detroit and Tigers.

Oakland Athletics (94-68) vs. Detroit Tigers (88-74)

Regular season head-to-head: The Tigers won the season series 4-3.

Series odds: N/A

PITCHING

Oakland’s young pitching staff is no doubt the backbone of the ball club. The A's are set to make history by fielding an all-rookie starting rotation this postseason. Travis Blackley, A.J. Griffin, Tom Milone, Jarrod Parker and Dan Straily are all likely to make their postseason debuts after impressive rookie campaigns. Oakland’s bullpen has been equally as impressive, posting a 2.94 ERA, the fourth-best mark in the league.

Nobody wants to face 2011 MVP Justin Verlander multiple times in a short series. With AL strikeout leader Max Scherzer factoring into the equation and feeling good after a return from shoulder fatigue, the Tigers have a potent one-two punch at the front of the rotation. Closer Jose Valverde has converted all four of his career save opportunities in the postseason.

Edge: Athletics


HITTING

The A’s, whose 14 walkoff victories lead baseball, won their seventh game this year after trailing by four or more runs Wednesday over the Rangers in the AL West clincher. Oakland’s .238 team batting average was one of the worst marks in the league, but its hitters ranked seventh in the majors with 195 home runs, 32 of those coming off the bat of OF Josh Reddick.

Tigers’ first baseman Miguel Cabrera became the first Triple Crown winner in 45 years, finishing the season with a .330 batting average, 44 home runs and 139 RBIs. But he isn’t the only big bat Oakland pitchers should be worried about. Slugger Prince Fielder eclipsed the 30-home run mark for the sixth consecutive season, while racking up 108 RBIs.

Edge: Tigers


INTANGIBLES:

Oakland came from 13 games back to capture the AL West title and become the most improbable $59.5-million payroll division winners you’ll ever see. Two of the four teams in MLB history to previously come from 13-or-more games back went on to win the World Series.

The Tigers also had to come from behind to clinch a division title and have been hot down the stretch, going 15-7 over their final 22 games.

Edge: Athletics


PREDICTION: A’s in five games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25142 Followers:33
10/06/2012 09:54 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Oakland at Detroit
The A's look to build on their 8-2 record in Jarrod Parker's last 10 road starts. Oakland is the pick (+170) according to Dunkel, which has the A's favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+170). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 6

Game 905-906: Cincinnati at San Francisco (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 15.119; San Francisco (Cain) 15.960
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-125); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-125); Under

Game 907-908: Oakland at Detroit (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Parker) 17.061; Detroit (Verlander) 15.133
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-200); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+170); Over




MLB
Long Sheet

Saturday, October 6

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (97 - 65) at SAN FRANCISCO (94 - 68) - 9:35 PM
JOHNNY CUETO (R) vs. MATT CAIN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 8-22 (-16.2 Units) against the money line in October games since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 94-68 (+19.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 94-68 (+19.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 60-37 (+20.1 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 43-25 (+17.3 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
CINCINNATI is 42-22 (+16.8 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
CINCINNATI is 97-65 (+17.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CINCINNATI is 47-34 (+10.7 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
CINCINNATI is 97-65 (+17.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
CINCINNATI is 402-445 (+38.8 Units) against the money line in road games in night games since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 443-497 (+44.3 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters since 1997.
CUETO is 38-19 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CUETO is 38-18 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 4-3 (+1.4 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.8 Units)

JOHNNY CUETO vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
CUETO is 2-1 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 1.93 and a WHIP of 1.107.
His team's record is 2-2 (-0.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.1 units)

MATT CAIN vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
CAIN is 4-5 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 3.54 and a WHIP of 1.325.
His team's record is 4-6 (-4.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-4. (+1.2 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OAKLAND (94 - 68) at DETROIT (88 - 74) - 6:05 PM
JARROD PARKER (R) vs. JUSTIN VERLANDER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
VERLANDER is 38-11 (+18.5 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
VERLANDER is 38-11 (+18.5 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
VERLANDER is 24-6 (+15.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
VERLANDER is 14-0 (+14.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
OAKLAND is 58-35 (+27.3 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
OAKLAND is 22-11 (+11.6 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
OAKLAND is 49-38 (+21.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
OAKLAND is 27-19 (+13.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
OAKLAND is 94-68 (+37.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
OAKLAND is 38-36 (+33.8 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +175 to +200 since 1997.
OAKLAND is 44-37 (+17.9 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
OAKLAND is 88-65 (+32.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
OAKLAND is 64-41 (+31.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
OAKLAND is 62-39 (+32.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
PARKER is 12-5 (+7.4 Units) against the money line after a win this season. (Team's Record)
PARKER is 11-5 (+7.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)
DETROIT is 45-43 (-13.8 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
DETROIT is 88-74 (-11.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
DETROIT is 84-71 (-12.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
DETROIT is 51-48 (-11.1 Units) against the money line in night games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 4-3 (+0.1 Units) against OAKLAND this season
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+3.1 Units)

JARROD PARKER vs. DETROIT since 1997
PARKER is 0-1 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 3.17 and a WHIP of 1.764.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

JUSTIN VERLANDER vs. OAKLAND since 1997
VERLANDER is 8-5 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 2.63 and a WHIP of 1.148.
His team's record is 8-6 (+0.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-9. (-4.9 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, October 6

A's won last six games and eight of last nine to win AL West. Tigers are 8-2 in last 10 games (all vs Royals/Twins), were beneficiaries of White Sox' collapse to win AL Central. Detroit won season series 4-3; winning team scored 10+ run in four of seven games- Tigers won two of three here Sept 18-20; teams split four games in Oakland in May. Parker is 4-0, 2.65 in his last five starts; he allowed two runs in 5.2 IP in 3-1 loss to Tigers in May, which was his first MLB loss. Verlander is 4-0, 0.96 in his last four starts; he beat Oakland twice this year, allowing one run in 13 IP. He had to throw 122 pitches in only six inning against the A's Sept 19.

Reds-Giants both jogged into playoffs, weren't stressed much in September-- Reds are 10-6 in last 16 games- they were 4-3 against SF this year, splitting a four game series in late July, after winning two of three at home in April. All four games here stayed under total; two of three in Ohio went over. Cueto is 2-0, 2.25 in his last three starts; he allowed three runs (two ER) in six IP in losing his only start against Giants this season. Cain is 3-0, 1.67 in his last five starts; he was 0-2, 5.54 in two starts against the Reds this season. Giants are 11-5 in their last 16 games.




MLB

Saturday, October 6

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6:07 PM
OAKLAND vs. DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Oakland's last 10 games on the road
Oakland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing Oakland
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

9:37 PM
CINCINNATI vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
San Francisco is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Cincinnati
San Francisco is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25142 Followers:33
10/06/2012 09:55 AM

MLB

Saturday, October 6

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ALDS Gm.1 betting preview: Athletics at Tigers
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers (-187, 7.5)

The Oakland Athletics have been in playoff mode for the better part of the last six weeks and needed a three-game sweep of the Texas Rangers to complete a comeback from 13 games out to win the American League West. The Detroit Tigers wrapped up the Central a little earlier and have had a chance to rest and line up the rotation for the Division Series. The Tigers will send reigning Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander in Game 1.

Verlander has been arguably the best pitcher in the AL during the regular season for the last handful of years but has never pitched well in the postseason, owning a 3-3 record with a 5.57 ERA in eight total starts. But at least Verlander has some playoff experience, whereas the Oakland staff is full of playoff first-timers. The Athletics cruise into the series having won six straight and eight of their last nine. They did hit a rough stretch on a road trip a couple weeks back, dropping six of 10 - including two of three at Detroit. Oakland was outscored 18-4 in the first two games of that series but bounced back to take the rubber game 12-4.

TV: 6:07 p.m. ET, TBS

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-40s under partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out to left field at 12 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Athletics RH Jarrod Parker (13-8, 3.47 ERA) vs. Tigers RH Justin Verlander (17-8, 2.64)

Parker, like most of his teammates, is new to the playoff experience but was a big part of the surge the carried the team through the month. The rookie right-hander showed few signs of fatigue in his first full season, going 4-1 with a 2.63 ERA over his final six starts. Parker faced Detroit at home on May 13 and suffered the loss after allowing two runs on six hits in 5 2/3 innings. Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera went 2-for-3 with an RBI off Parker in that contest.

Verlander again has a strong case for the Cy Young Award after leading the majors with 239 strikeouts. He finished the campaign by going 4-0 with a 0.64 ERA in his final four turns. One of those wins came against Oakland on Sept. 19, when he scattered five hits over six scoreless innings while striking out five. Verlander has fared well against the A’s in his career, owning a 7-5 record with a 2.38 ERA in 13 career starts - including two wins in as many outings this season.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Detroit.
* Tigers are 6-1 in their last seven games vs. a right-handed starter.
* Athletics are 7-1 in their last eight Saturday games.
* Over is 5-0 in Athletics last five vs. American League Central.

WALK-OFFS:

1. The Oakland lineup led the major leagues in strikeouts with 1,387 and will be going against the two starting pitchers (Verlander and Max Scherzer) who punched out the most batters during the regular season.

2. Cabrera went 14-for-29 (.483) with three homers and 14 RBIs in seven games against the A’s this season.

3. The Tigers took four of the seven meetings during the regular season and swept the A's in the 2006 ALCS - Oakland's last trip to the playoffs.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25142 Followers:33
10/06/2012 09:58 AM

MLB

Saturday, October 6

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NLDS Gm.1 betting preview: Reds at Giants
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants (-119, 6.5)

Runs figure to be at a premium when the San Francisco Giants and Cincinnati Reds meet in Game 1 of the best-of-five National League Division Series at AT&T Park. Both teams relied heavily on their pitching to win their divisions by a wide margin, and the opener features a matchup of Cy Young award candidates Matt Cain and Johnny Cueto. Cincinnati went 4-3 against San Francisco this season, with three of the seven games decided by one run. While the Reds have Bronson Arroyo and Mat Latos lined up to start the next two games, the Giants haven’t announced who will follow Madison Bumgarner in Game 2. Manager Bruce Bochy said it’s possible that regular starters Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito or Ryan Vogelsong could be used in relief in the first two games.

The series marks a postseason return to San Francisco for Reds manager Dusty Baker, who managed the Giants from 1993-2002. Baker, who led the Giants to the 2002 World Series, is back in the dugout after being treated for an irregular heartbeat and a mini-stroke in September. The Giants’ offense revolves around MVP candidate Buster Posey, who hit .336 to win the first batting title by an NL catcher since 1942. Bochy did a masterful job handling his relief corps this season, but the Reds had the best bullpen ERA in the majors this season at 2.65. Jonathan Broxton and Sean Marshall provide a solid bridge to closer Aroldis Chapman, who converted 38 of his 43 save opportunities with a 1.51 ERA.

TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, TBS

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s under clear skies. Winds will blow out to right field at 10 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Reds RH Johnny Cueto (19-9, 2.78 ERA) vs. Giants RH Matt Cain (16-5, 2.79)

Cain took two of his five losses this season against the Reds, allowing eight earned runs in 13 innings - including four home runs. Cain, who threw the first perfect game in franchise history on June 13, set career bests in ERA, wins and strikeouts (193). He’s hoping to continue his success from the 2010 postseason, when he pitched 21 1/3 innings without allowing an earned run.

Cueto lost his only start against the Giants this season on June 28, when he gave up three runs and six hits over six innings. Hunter Pence is 8-for-29 (.276) with 11 strikeouts against Cueto, who is the first pitcher since Luis Tiant in 1968 with 200 innings pitched not to allow a runner to steal second or third base. He allowed three runs (one earned) over seven innings last Sunday against Pittsburgh.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings in San Francisco.
* Under is 4-1 in Cain’s last five home starts vs. Reds.
* Giants are 2-6 in Cain’s last eight starts vs. Reds.
* Reds are 4-1 in Cueto’s last five Saturday starts.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Reds 1B Joey Votto batted .227 (5-for-22) against the Giants this season, while OF Jay Bruce was 11-for-26 (.423) with a homer and seven RBIs.

2. Giants 2B Marco Scutaro finished the regular season with a 20-game hitting streak, batting .436 with five doubles and 17 RBIs during that stretch.

3. Scott Rolen will likely start Game 1 at third base for the Reds over Todd Frazier, who was 13-for-72 (.181) with three RBIs in September.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25142 Followers:33
10/06/2012 10:04 AM

Playoff Record:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/05/12 3-­1-­0 75.00% +­1610 Detail


Saturday, October 6

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Oakland - 6:00 PM ET Oakland +179 500
Detroit - Over 7.5 500

Cincinnati - 9:30 PM ET San Francisco -120 500
San Francisco - Over 6.5 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25142 Followers:33
10/06/2012 04:41 PM

MLB
Short Sheet

Saturday, October 6

National League

NL Division Series, Game One (Series Tied, 0-0)
(TC) Cincinnati at San Francisco, 9:35 ET TBS
Cueto: Cincinnati 8-22 SU in October
Cain: San Francisco 33-13 SU after scoring 2 runs or less


American League

AL Division Series, Game One (Series Tied, 0-0)
(TC) Oakland at Detroit, 6:05 ET TBS
Parker: Oakland 11-2 SU off 6+ division games
Verlander: Detroit 8-0 Over at home off 5+ road games


(TC) = Time Change

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25142 Followers:33
10/07/2012 10:42 AM

NLDS preview and pick: Nationals vs. Cardinals

Check out our breakdown of the NL Divisional Series between the Washington Nationals and St. Louis Cardinals.

Washington Nationals (98-64) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (88-74)

Regular season head-to-head: Washington won the season series 4-3.

Series odds: Nationals -135, Cardinals +115 - Bet365.com

PITCHING

It’s time to find out whether the decision to shut down ace Stephen Strasburg in early September will come back to haunt the Nationals. Team management believes that 21-game winner Gio Gonzalez and righty Jordan Zimmermann can lead the charge and with good reason. Both of the young hurlers had better ERAs (2.89 and 2.94) than Strasburg (3.16) this season. Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard form a formidable one-two punch late in games and Sean Burnett is one of the most effective lefty specialists in the bigs.

The Cardinals are the defending World Series champs and boast a pitching staff that’s playoff proven. Chris Carpenter has rejoined the rotation just in time for the playoff run after finally dealing with a nerve ailment. The battle-tested veteran was untouchable in October last year, posting a perfect 4-0 record. Adam Wainwright missed last year’s storybook run because of Tommy John surgery, but he isn’t a stranger to the postseason. Remember, he closed out Game 5 against the Tigers during the club’s 2006 title run. Kyle Lohse and up-and-comer Lance Lynn round out a rotation that can most certainly repeat as champions. Closer Jason Motte proved last year he’s a playoff performer, closing out five games.

Edge: Nationals


HITTING

First baseman Adam LaRoche matched a career high with 100 RBI and he and the rest of the infield - Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa - combined for 100 homers this season. Oh yeah, and don’t forget about Bryce Harper. The rookie phenom led the NL in runs (27) in September and ranked in the top five in slugging percentage (.643) and batting average (.330) down the stretch.

Carlos Beltran was brought in to replace Albert Pujols' numbers this season and he didn’t disappoint. The veteran outfielder hit .269 with 32 home runs, while driving in 97 runs. Catcher Yadier Molina, who is renowned for his game-calling abilities, should receive some consideration for the league MVP after also putting up big offensive numbers (.315 BA, 22 HRs, 76 RBIs) this season.

Edge: Cardinals


INTANGIBLES

The Nationals return to the postseason for the first time since 1981, back when they were the Montreal Expos. The club posted the best record in the bigs this year, but have 11 regulars who will be making their playoff debuts Sunday. They'll have little margin for error in a shortened five-game series against a Cardinals squad loaded with postseason experience.

St. Louis overcame a 9 1/2-game deficit last season to nab a playoff spot on the season's final day and rode that momentum to claim its 11th World Series title. The Cardinals were once again strong down the stretch this year, taking 12 of their final 16 regular-season to build some serious momentum heading into the play-in game against Atlanta.

Edge: Cardinals


PREDICTION: Cardinals in five games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25142 Followers:33
10/07/2012 10:44 AM

ALDS preview and pick: Yankees vs. Orioles

Check out our breakdown of the AL Divisional Series between the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles.

New York Yankees (95-67) vs. Baltimore Orioles (93-69)

Regular season head-to-head: The clubs split 18 meetings this season.

Series odds: Yankees -220, Orioles + 180- Bet365.com

PITCHING

The Yankees will send staff ace CC Sabathia to the mound for Game 1. The big lefty has struggled against Baltimore this season, going 0-2 with a 6.38 ERA in 16 innings pitched against Orioles hitters, who have a combined .312 batting average against him this year. Hiroki Kuroda, Andy Pettitte and Phil Hughes will round out the rotation. Pettitte owns a major-league record 19 postseason wins, but the Yankees will surely miss the experience of all-time saves leader Mariano Rivera (ACL). Righties David Robertson and Joba Chamberlain will be the go-to guys in the seventh and eighth innings before handing things over to Rafael Soriano, who saved 42 games and boasts a 2.26 ERA this season.

Baltimore has the most feared bullpen in the AL. Closer Jim Johnson led the majors with a team-record 51 saves, a major reason why the Orioles are 75-0 this season when leading after seven innings. Sidewinder Darren O’Day has thrived in the setup role and Brian Matusz has made a successful transition from a starter to a lefty specialist. Baltimore’s young starters (except for Joe Saunders) will get a taste of playoff pressure for the first time. It will be interesting to see how they respond.

Edge: Tie. The Yankees have the better starting pitching, but the Orioles boast a superior bullpen.


HITTING

They aren’t called the Bronx Bombers for nothing. The Yankees belted out a league-best 245 home runs this season. Robinson Cano enters the series on a torrid pace. The second baseman is hitting .615 with three HRs and 14 RBIs over his last nine games. Captain Derek Jeter hit .403 in 18 games against the Orioles this season, and OF Ichiro Suzuki batted .361 in 10 contests against the O's.

Orioles 1B Mark Reynolds has feasted on Yankees pitching this season, belting seven HRs and 14 RBIs in 15 games. Catcher Matt Wieters and OF Adam Jones also have averages above .300 against New York this campaign. The O’s have received unexpected offensive contributions down the stretch from OF Nate McLouth, who joined the team in August, and 3B Manny Machado, the 20-year-old prospect recalled in July.

Edge: Yankees


INTANGIBLES

The New York Yankees begin their quest for a 28th World Series title on Sunday at Camden Yards. Their roster is loaded with talented veterans that are proven playoff performers.

The Orioles are back in the postseason for the first time since 1997, mostly because of their uncanny ability to win close games this year. The O's outscored the opposition only 712-705 en route to their 93-69 record.

Edge: Yankees


PREDICTION: Yankees in five games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25142 Followers:33
10/07/2012 10:46 AM

MLB
Dunkel

NY Yankees at Baltimore
The Orioles look to build on their 6-0 record in their last 6 games as a home underdog. Baltimore is the pick (+140) according to Dunkel, which has the Orioles favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+140). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 7

Game 909-910: Washington at St. Louis (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Gonzalez) 16.882; St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.266
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-110); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-110); Over

Game 911-912: Cincinnati at San Francisco (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 14.759; San Francisco (Bumgarner) 16.320
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-140); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-140); Under

Game 913-914: Oakland at Detroit (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Milone) 16.537; Detroit (Fister) 15.656
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+140); Under

Game 915-916: NY Yankees at Baltimore (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.385; Baltimore (Hammel) 17.050
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+140); Over




MLB
Long Sheet

Sunday, October 7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (98 - 64) at ST LOUIS (89 - 74) - 3:05 PM
GIO GONZALEZ (L) vs. ADAM WAINWRIGHT (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 17-8 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in October games over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 49-36 (+13.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 98-64 (+22.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 48-33 (+14.4 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
WASHINGTON is 95-64 (+19.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
WASHINGTON is 69-45 (+16.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
WASHINGTON is 59-38 (+13.5 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
WASHINGTON is 47-35 (+10.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
WASHINGTON is 39-30 (+13.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
GONZALEZ is 24-8 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
GONZALEZ is 14-4 (+9.7 Units) against the money line in road games this season. (Team's Record)
GONZALEZ is 25-10 (+13.6 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GONZALEZ is 24-8 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
GONZALEZ is 16-5 (+9.8 Units) against the money line after a win this season. (Team's Record)
ST LOUIS is 89-74 (-3.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 8-15 (-9.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less this season.
ST LOUIS is 89-74 (-3.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ST LOUIS is 26-35 (-16.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
WAINWRIGHT is 10-16 (-13.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 4-3 (+1.0 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
6 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+5.0 Units)

GIO GONZALEZ vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
GONZALEZ is 1-0 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.889.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.1 units)

ADAM WAINWRIGHT vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
WAINWRIGHT is 4-3 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 3.78 and a WHIP of 1.447.
His team's record is 4-4 (-1.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-3. (+0.4 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (98 - 65) at SAN FRANCISCO (94 - 69) - 9:35 PM
BRONSON ARROYO (R) vs. MADISON BUMGARNER (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 5-3 (+2.5 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.6 Units)

BRONSON ARROYO vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
ARROYO is 3-5 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 2.93 and a WHIP of 1.415.
His team's record is 4-7 (-3.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 9-1. (+7.8 units)

MADISON BUMGARNER vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
BUMGARNER is 1-2 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 5.16 and a WHIP of 1.279.
His team's record is 1-3 (-2.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-2. (-0.1 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OAKLAND (94 - 69) at DETROIT (89 - 74) - 12:05 PM
TOM MILONE (L) vs. DOUG FISTER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 37-17 (+16.3 Units) against the money line when playing on Sunday over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 31-14 (+13.5 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 94-69 (+36.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
OAKLAND is 44-38 (+16.9 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
OAKLAND is 96-79 (+19.1 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 88-66 (+31.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
OAKLAND is 62-40 (+31.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
OAKLAND is 36-32 (+11.2 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
OAKLAND is 49-39 (+20.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
OAKLAND is 27-20 (+12.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
MILONE is 20-11 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
MILONE is 19-10 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
DETROIT is 89-74 (-10.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
DETROIT is 85-71 (-11.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
DETROIT is 46-43 (-12.8 Units) against the money line after a win this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 5-3 (+1.1 Units) against OAKLAND this season
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.1 Units)

TOM MILONE vs. DETROIT since 1997
MILONE is 1-0 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 3.08 and a WHIP of 1.542.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-0. (+2.2 units)

DOUG FISTER vs. OAKLAND since 1997
FISTER is 5-4 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 2.45 and a WHIP of 1.212.
His team's record is 5-6 (-0.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-4. (+1.5 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY YANKEES (95 - 67) at BALTIMORE (94 - 69) - 6:05 PM
C.C. SABATHIA (L) vs. JASON HAMMEL (R)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 27-31 (-9.8 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season.
NY YANKEES are 67-74 (-23.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
SABATHIA is 4-8 (-8.2 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season. (Team's Record)
BALTIMORE is 94-69 (+38.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BALTIMORE is 36-22 (+17.9 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
BALTIMORE is 47-34 (+10.4 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
BALTIMORE is 23-13 (+10.1 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
BALTIMORE is 15-4 (+14.3 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off this season.
BALTIMORE is 43-29 (+21.9 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
BALTIMORE is 86-59 (+37.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
BALTIMORE is 62-54 (+17.1 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
BALTIMORE is 27-18 (+11.9 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
BALTIMORE is 54-39 (+20.9 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
BALTIMORE is 54-41 (+28.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BALTIMORE is 26-22 (+13.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
HAMMEL is 13-7 (+8.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
HAMMEL is 7-1 (+7.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season. (Team's Record)
HAMMEL is 12-6 (+7.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
HAMMEL is 27-17 (+12.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
NY YANKEES are 89-55 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
BALTIMORE is 167-246 (-76.0 Units) against the money line when playing on Sunday since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 9-9 (+4.1 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
9 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.7 Units, Under=-1.1 Units)

C.C. SABATHIA vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
SABATHIA is 16-4 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 3.12 and a WHIP of 1.136.
His team's record is 19-6 (+8.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 14-9. (+4.4 units)

JASON HAMMEL vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
HAMMEL is 1-3 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 5.53 and a WHIP of 1.574.
His team's record is 3-5 (+0.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-4. (-0.4 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, October 7

Detroit is 5-3 vs Oakland this year, but Verlander is three of the five wins; A's have won eight of last ten games, Tigers nine of last 11. Winning team scored 10+ runs in four of eight series games. Milone is 2-0, 3.58 in last five starts; he was 1-0, 3.86 in two starts vs Detroit this year-- he started only game the A's won here, back on Sept 20. Fister is 1-2, 3.96 in his last four starts-- Detroit won his last four home starts. Fister lost 3-1 in Oakland May 12, allowing one run in six IP. A's are only road team to lose in first four playoff games.

Washington is 4-3 vs World Champ Cardinals this year, with home side 5-2 in those games; six of the seven games went over total. Not sure if Strasburg not pitching matters here, but he is Washington's best pitcher and he is inactive. Gonzalez won 21 games, is 5-1, 1.80 in his last six starts; om August 31, he threw 5-hit shutout vs St Louis (won 10-0). Just for the record, Strasburg blanked the Cards on two hits over six innings on Sept 2nd. Wainwright is 1-3, 6.34 in his last six starts, but the win was Sept 28 against Washington- they KO'd him in 3rd inning of that August 31 game.

Bronx-Baltimore split 18 games this year, with road team winning 12 of the 18 games (6-3 in each park). Last five series games all went over total. Hammel (knee) hasn't pitched since Sept 11; he had a 3.09 RA in his last three starts, and was 0-1, 4.50 in three starts vs Bronx this season. Sabathia is 2-0, 1.50 in his last three starts, going 8 innings in all three; he is 0-2, 6.38 in three starts against Baltimore this year. Keep in mind this is first time in years Bombers don't have Rivera to lean on to close out a playoff game.

Arroyo is 0-3, 4.32 in his last four starts; he allowed four runs in 11 IP in his two no-decisions against Giants this year. Bumgarner was 2-2, 6.15 in his five September starts; he threw one-hitter vs Cincinnati here June 28. Reds/Giants are both 11-6 in last 17 games- Reds are 5-3 against SF this year, with 5-2 win last night first of the five games here to go over total. Cueto got back spasms after eight pitches last night, had to leave, which fouled up rotation but Latos bailed them out with stellar effort in long relief.




MLB

Sunday, October 7

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

12:07 PM
OAKLAND vs. DETROIT
Oakland is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Oakland is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games on the road
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Detroit's last 23 games at home

3:07 PM
WASHINGTON vs. ST. LOUIS
Washington is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games on the road
St. Louis is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing at home against Washington

6:07 PM
NY YANKEES vs. BALTIMORE
NY Yankees are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Yankees's last 7 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Baltimore is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games

9:37 PM
CINCINNATI vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Cincinnati is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing San Francisco
Cincinnati is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
San Francisco is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: