cnotes Posts:24819 Followers:33
10/11/2012 07:26 PM

NFL odds: Week 6 opening line report

Betting the Green Bay Packers as underdogs in recent seasons has been about as rare as Dracula’s steak. However, NFL bettors get that chance when the Packers limp into the Lone Star State to take on the Houston Texans in Week 6.

The early odds for Sunday night’s showdown have the Cheeseheads set as high as 5.5-point pups, facing a Texans team that is undefeated heading into Monday night’s matchup with the New York Jets.

Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, says depending on Houston’s performance at MetLife Stadium, this spread could go as high as -6 by Monday night.

“This was one of the toughest lines to make in a long time,” Korner, who sent out a suggested spread of Houston -4, told Covers. “Our guys had it as high as -7 and as low as -3.5. Houston has the short week and we’ll see what happens Monday. But this is a must-win for Green Bay.”

The Packers are reeling from a 30-27 upset loss to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 5, failing to cover as 6.5-point favorites and dropping to 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS on the season.

Green Bay was an underdog only once last season, set at +6.5 versus the Detroit Lions in the final game of the season – a throw-away game for the Packers, who still won 45-41. During the 2010 regular season, Green Bay was a 14-point pup at New England with Aaron Rodgers sidelined in Week 15, a 2.5-point underdog at Atlanta in Week 12, and got 6.5 points from books visiting the Jets in Week 8.

The Packers were tagged as 1-point underdogs in their first two playoff games that year, winning and covering in both en route to a Super Bowl title. Green Bay is a profitable 5-1 ATS in its last six games as the betting underdog.

Here are the opening odds for some of the biggest games on the Week 6 schedule:

Oakland Raiders at Atlanta Falcons (-9.5, 48.5)

The undefeated Falcons opened as low as 8.5-point home favorites versus the rested Raiders and have since been bet up a point.

Korner was shocked to see so many online markets open the spread that low and suggests his clients keep this number as high as they can.

“I think that line is absurd,” says Korner, who sent out a suggested spread of Atlanta -10.5. “We set it high and will be unyielding in our advice to keep this spread high. We expect money on the favorite to be around 10-1 or 15-1.”

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-6, 45.5)

These teams know each other well after two run-ins last season, including a thrilling 20-17 overtime victory for the Giants in the NFC Championship Game.

There is a measure of revenge involved, as far as 49ers backers are concerned, but oddsmakers put more weight into the teams’ current forms when making the odds. The Niners, coming off a dominant win against the Buffalo Bills, are 6-point home chalk in this heated rematch.

Korner says Nevada books will likely have this game a little higher, especially in the northern part of the state, thanks to the proximity of California and the Bay Area. The Sports Club sent out a suggested line of San Francisco -7 with the total posted two points higher at 47.

“We recommend our clients going a little higher with this spread,” says Korner. “They’re going to be blitzed by San Francisco money on the (parlay cards).”

The Niners won 27-20 as 4-point home favorites versus the Giants in Week 10 last season, then fell in overtime as 2-point home faves in the NFC Championship.

Dallas Cowboys at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 43.5)

The Ravens escaped Arrowhead Stadium with a weird 9-6 win over the Chiefs in Week 5, settling for three field goals from kicker Justin Tucker.

Baltimore’s new-look offense has been impressive up to that point and oddsmakers aren’t putting too much weight into the dud in Kansas City when setting the spread for Sunday’s home date versus Dallas.

“Sometimes you just need to throw away a game and forget about it, says Korner. “That’s what we’re doing with Baltimore here.”

The Cowboys had a bye week to wash away the stink of their Monday night mess against Chicago. Dallas’ offense has been terrible – ranked 30th in points (16.2 per game) – and has pushed the opening total down from 44 to 43.5. However, the Cowboys have shown a tendency to tighten the screws during the week off and boast an NFL-best 16-7 SU and ATS mark coming off the bye since 1990.

“We don’t use those past results,” Korner says of Dallas' record off the bye week. “We let the bettors look at that and bet them all they want.”

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24819 Followers:33
10/11/2012 07:26 PM

NFL odds: Week 6 opening line report

Betting the Green Bay Packers as underdogs in recent seasons has been about as rare as Dracula’s steak. However, NFL bettors get that chance when the Packers limp into the Lone Star State to take on the Houston Texans in Week 6.

The early odds for Sunday night’s showdown have the Cheeseheads set as high as 5.5-point pups, facing a Texans team that is undefeated heading into Monday night’s matchup with the New York Jets.

Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, says depending on Houston’s performance at MetLife Stadium, this spread could go as high as -6 by Monday night.

“This was one of the toughest lines to make in a long time,” Korner, who sent out a suggested spread of Houston -4, told Covers. “Our guys had it as high as -7 and as low as -3.5. Houston has the short week and we’ll see what happens Monday. But this is a must-win for Green Bay.”

The Packers are reeling from a 30-27 upset loss to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 5, failing to cover as 6.5-point favorites and dropping to 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS on the season.

Green Bay was an underdog only once last season, set at +6.5 versus the Detroit Lions in the final game of the season – a throw-away game for the Packers, who still won 45-41. During the 2010 regular season, Green Bay was a 14-point pup at New England with Aaron Rodgers sidelined in Week 15, a 2.5-point underdog at Atlanta in Week 12, and got 6.5 points from books visiting the Jets in Week 8.

The Packers were tagged as 1-point underdogs in their first two playoff games that year, winning and covering in both en route to a Super Bowl title. Green Bay is a profitable 5-1 ATS in its last six games as the betting underdog.

Here are the opening odds for some of the biggest games on the Week 6 schedule:

Oakland Raiders at Atlanta Falcons (-9.5, 48.5)

The undefeated Falcons opened as low as 8.5-point home favorites versus the rested Raiders and have since been bet up a point.

Korner was shocked to see so many online markets open the spread that low and suggests his clients keep this number as high as they can.

“I think that line is absurd,” says Korner, who sent out a suggested spread of Atlanta -10.5. “We set it high and will be unyielding in our advice to keep this spread high. We expect money on the favorite to be around 10-1 or 15-1.”

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-6, 45.5)

These teams know each other well after two run-ins last season, including a thrilling 20-17 overtime victory for the Giants in the NFC Championship Game.

There is a measure of revenge involved, as far as 49ers backers are concerned, but oddsmakers put more weight into the teams’ current forms when making the odds. The Niners, coming off a dominant win against the Buffalo Bills, are 6-point home chalk in this heated rematch.

Korner says Nevada books will likely have this game a little higher, especially in the northern part of the state, thanks to the proximity of California and the Bay Area. The Sports Club sent out a suggested line of San Francisco -7 with the total posted two points higher at 47.

“We recommend our clients going a little higher with this spread,” says Korner. “They’re going to be blitzed by San Francisco money on the (parlay cards).”

The Niners won 27-20 as 4-point home favorites versus the Giants in Week 10 last season, then fell in overtime as 2-point home faves in the NFC Championship.

Dallas Cowboys at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 43.5)

The Ravens escaped Arrowhead Stadium with a weird 9-6 win over the Chiefs in Week 5, settling for three field goals from kicker Justin Tucker.

Baltimore’s new-look offense has been impressive up to that point and oddsmakers aren’t putting too much weight into the dud in Kansas City when setting the spread for Sunday’s home date versus Dallas.

“Sometimes you just need to throw away a game and forget about it, says Korner. “That’s what we’re doing with Baltimore here.”

The Cowboys had a bye week to wash away the stink of their Monday night mess against Chicago. Dallas’ offense has been terrible – ranked 30th in points (16.2 per game) – and has pushed the opening total down from 44 to 43.5. However, the Cowboys have shown a tendency to tighten the screws during the week off and boast an NFL-best 16-7 SU and ATS mark coming off the bye since 1990.

“We don’t use those past results,” Korner says of Dallas' record off the bye week. “We let the bettors look at that and bet them all they want.”

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24819 Followers:33
10/11/2012 07:27 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 6

Pittsburgh at Tennessee
The Steelers look to take advantage of a Tennessee team that is coming off a 30-7 loss to Minnesota last weekend and is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points. Pittsburgh is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Steelers favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-5 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 11

Game 101-102: Pittsburgh at Tennessee (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 132.289; Tennessee 124.886
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 7 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 5 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-5 1/2); Under

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 7

Game 209-210: Cincinnati at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 129.426; Cleveland 130.392
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 47
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+1 1/2); Over

Game 211-212: Indianapolis at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 126.479; NY Jets 127.518
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 1; 45
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 3 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+3 1/2); Over

Game 213-214: Kansas City at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 125.795; Tampa Bay 130.222
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 4 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 3 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-3 1/2); Under

Game 215-216: Oakland at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 131.831; Atlanta 139.473
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 7 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 9 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+9 1/2); Over

Game 217-218: Dallas at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 130.827; Baltimore 138.864
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 8; 41
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-3 1/2); Under

Game 219-220: Detroit at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 130.529; Philadelphia 136.836
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 6 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-3 1/2); Under

Game 221-222: St. Louis at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 132.430; Miami 132.180
Dunkel Line: Even; 42
Vegas Line: Miami by 3 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+3 1/2); Over

Game 223-224: New England at Seattle (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 137.458; Seattle 137.829
Dunkel Line: Even; 41
Vegas Line: New England by 3 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+3 1/2); Under

Game 225-226: Buffalo at Arizona (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 130.662; Arizona 132.929
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Arizona by 4 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+4 1/2); Over

Game 227-228: Minnesota at Washington (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 129.722; Washington 133.055
Dunkel Line: Washington by 3 1/2;
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 229-230: NY Giants at San Francisco (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 137.563; San Francisco 138.380
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 42
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 5 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+5 1/2); Under

Game 231-232: Green Bay at Houston (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 137.076; Houston 142.666
Dunkel Line: Houston by 5 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Houston by 3 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-3 1/2); Under


MONDAY, OCTOBER 15

Game 233-234: Denver at San Diego (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 135.211; San Diego 134.078
Dunkel Line: Denver by 1; 52
Vegas Line: San Diego by 2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+2); Over

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24819 Followers:33
10/11/2012 07:29 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 6

Thursday, October 11

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (2 - 2) at TENNESSEE (1 - 4) - 10/11/2012, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 89-58 ATS (+25.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 53-32 ATS (+17.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 2-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 2-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24819 Followers:33
10/11/2012 07:30 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 6

Thursday, October 11, 2012

(TC) Pittsburgh at Tennessee, 8:25 ET NFL
Pittsburgh: 1-8 ATS away vs. conference opponents
Tennessee: 9-2 ATS off BB games scoring 14 points or less

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24819 Followers:33
10/11/2012 07:31 PM

NFL

Week 6

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Trend Report
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Thursday, October 11

8:20 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. TENNESSEE
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tennessee's last 10 games when playing Pittsburgh


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24819 Followers:33
10/11/2012 07:32 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 6

Thursday's Game

Steelers (2-2) @ Titans (1-4)-- Tennessee is awful, with all four losses by 21+ points; in their only win, they scored three TDs via defense/special teams and still needed OT to win. Pitt won last three series games, by 3-8-21, but they're 2-7 overall in Tennessee- they beat Titans 38-17 at Heinz LY. Steelers finally ran ball better vs Philly (136 YR) after averaging 65 ypg in 1-2 start; they're 0-2 on road this year, giving up 31-34 points at Denver/Oakland. Pitt is 10-20-1 vs spread in last 31 games as a road favorite. Titans are 10-6 in last 16 games as a home underdog- they've allowed 34-41 points in splitting first two home games. AFC North favorites are 1-6 vs spread in non-divisional games, 0-3 on road.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24819 Followers:33
10/11/2012 07:33 PM

NFL

Week 6

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Steelers at Titans: What bettors need to know
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Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans (5.5, 42.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers try for their first road win of the season Thursday, when they kick off Week 6 against the struggling Tennessee Titans. Pittsburgh has lost both of its games away from home thus far, dropping its season opener in Denver on Sept. 9 and allowing 13 fourth-quarter points in a 34-31 setback in Oakland. The Steelers evened their overall record Sunday with a 16-14 home triumph over Philadelphia.

Pittsburgh will be without safety Troy Polamalu, who aggravated his strained right calf in the first quarter of the victory over the Eagles. The All-Pro originally suffered the injury in the season opener and missed the team's next two games. That is good news for Matt Hasselbeck, who will make his second straight start at quarterback for Tennessee. With Jake Locker still recovering from a separated left shoulder, Hasselbeck gets the call despite passing for only 200 yards in Sunday's 30-7 loss at Minnesota. The Steelers lead the all-time series 44-30 and have won each of the last three meetings.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: Steelers -5.5, O/U 42.5.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s with a slight chance of a thunderstorm late in the evening hours. Wind shouldn’t be a factor.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (2-2): Ryan Mundy is expected to fill in at safety for Polamalu, but Will Allen also may receive more playing time as a result of the star's absence. While Polamalu definitely is out, linebacker LaMarr Woodley is considered doubtful with a strained right hamstring. Shaun Suisham booted a 34-yard field goal as time expired Sunday, helping Pittsburgh avoid its first 1-3 start under coach Mike Tomlin. Tight end Heath Miller made four catches for 43 yards, becoming the eighth player in franchise history to surpass 4,000 yards receiving.

ABOUT THE TITANS (1-4): Running back Javon Ringer is expected to miss four to six weeks with a sprained left MCL suffered in the fourth quarter of Sunday's loss. Tennessee has to be pleased with the news as it feared Ringer, who was carted off the field, tore his ACL. Hasselbeck completed 26 of 43 passes and threw for a touchdown, but the majority of his success came with the game's outcome already decided. Running back Chris Johnson's next 100-yard rushing game will be the 30th of his career. Only Earl Campbell (39) and Eddie George (36) have had more for the franchise.

TRENDS:

* Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Steelers are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.
* Underdog is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Under is 5-1-1 in Titans’ last seven home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Pittsburgh has lost four of its last five road games dating to last season.

2. The Titans gained only 52 yards on the ground against the Vikings, with Johnson rushing 15 times for 24 yards.

3. Tennessee has allowed a league-worst 181 points.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24819 Followers:33
10/11/2012 07:34 PM

NFL

Week 6

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Tale of the tape: Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans
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Take a quick glance at the tale of the tape for Thursday night’s showdown between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans.

Offense

Steelers RB Rashard Mendenhall had a strong performance in his first game since tearing his ACL on New Year’s Day. The Illinois product rushed for 81 yards and a TD last Sunday against the Eagles. He also caught two passes for 20 yards and was called “a savior” to the offense by QB Ben Roethlisberger after the game. Big Ben passed for 207 yards without a TD Sunday, but recorded his 25th-career fourth-quarter comeback.

Titans QB Matt Hasselbeck will make his second straight start for Tennessee Thursday in place of injured first-string signal-caller Jake Locker (shoulder). Second-string RB Javon Ringer is expected to miss four to six weeks with a strained left MCL suffered in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s loss to the Vikings. That means Chris Johnson will see a heavy workload against the Steelers. He rushed 15 times for just 24 yards last week.

Edge: Steelers


Defense

Pittsburgh will be without S Troy Polamalu, who aggravated his strained right calf in the first quarter of the victory over the Eagles. The All-Pro originally sustained the injury in the season opener and missed the team's next two games. Linebacker LaMarr Woodley is considered doubtful with a strained right hamstring. Pittsburgh ranks fifth in the NFL with 280.0 yards allowed per contest, but it's given up 65 total points in road defeats to Denver and Oakland.

The Tennessee Titans have been blown out in four of their five games this year and have allowed a league-worst 181 points. The Titans rank in the bottom quarter of the NFL in points allowed, total yards allowed, rushing yards allowed, passing yards allowed and sacks allowed.

Edge: Steelers


Special Teams

Steelers K Shaun Suisham booted a 34-yard field goal as time expired Sunday, helping Pittsburgh avoid its first 1-3 start under coach Mike Tomlin. His three field goals (20, 34 and 34 yards) were his most in a contest since the Steelers beat New England in October 2011. Suisham is perfect on the season, hitting all eight of his field-goal attempts.

Titans kick returner Darius Reynaud was named the AFC Special Teams Player for the month of September for a reason. Reynaud is the first Titans player to win an AFC Player of the Month Award for special teams and is averaging 27.6 yards per kick return. The West Virginia product brought a kick back 105 yards for a TD against the Lions on Sept. 23.

Edge: Tie


Word on the street

We've also got a desire to increase our chances of winning, and when you're picking up 30 yards of penalties in one drive that's going to give people an opportunity to score. So, obviously, we're trying to rectify those things. We're less concerned with judgments and interpretations and more concerned about playing in a manner that the flags stay in the pocket.''-- Steelers coach Mike Tomlin on his team’s recent lack of discipline.

"That’s just part of the makeup of them (Steelers). They’re a 3-4 team, so they’re going to bring at least four, which most teams do on a 4-3. But you can get four or five guys every snap. I think the thing they do, people perceive it as they’re blitzing all the time, a lot of times they’re bringing five, six. They’re not always bringing as much as people think, it just appears that way. Their thing is more that they try to confuse you with who is coming, try to get mismatches by how they do it. You have to block them. That’s pretty much the No. 1 thing, is blocking and giving your quarterback a chance to make plays down the field." --Titans coach Mike Munchak on the Steelers pass rush.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24819 Followers:33
10/11/2012 07:36 PM

Thursday, October 11

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Pittsburgh - 8:20 PM ET Tennessee +6 500

Tennessee - Under 43.5 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: