cnotes Posts:27376 Followers:33
10/07/2012 12:10 AM

NFL Week 5 Preview: Eagles at Steelers

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (3-1)

at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (1-2)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Pittsburgh -3, Total: 43

The two Pennsylvania NFL teams square off Sunday at Heinz Field when Pittsburgh hosts Philadelphia.

The Steelers had issues in their two road games losing both games after holding fourth-quarter leads. But they shut down the Jets in their only home tilt and should have S Troy Polamalu (calf) and OLB James Harrison (knee), their two best defensive players, back in the lineup. Michael Vick continues to take a ton of hits. The Eagles have barely eked out their three wins, though last week’s win over the Giants was turnover-free after they gave it away 12 times in their first three games. Philly has gained 400-plus yards of offense in its three wins; the Steelers haven’t allowed 400-plus at home since November 2010, a span of 15 games.

Who will win the battle of Pennsylvania on Sunday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Vick’s numbers are pretty poor right now, throwing 4 TD and 6 INT (72.7 QB rating). Much of this has to do with him being knocked to the turf a league-most 44 times already. However, his best receiver, Jeremy Maclin, finally appears to be 100 percent recovered from his hip injury he suffered in Week 2, as he is not even on the team’s injury report this week. Maclin’s improved health should also help WR DeSean Jackson see less double-teaming. Maclin’s return to the field last week helped Jackson have a great game against New York, catching six passes for 99 yards and a touchdown. RB LeSean McCoy is dealing with a sore knee, but he will start on Sunday. McCoy is coming off his best game of the season, rushing for 123 yards on 23 carries (5.3 YPC) in the win over the Giants. Defensively, the Eagles have been sound in both defending the pass (207 YPG, 7th in NFL) and also the run (92 YPG, 12th in NFL). However, the team has forced just one turnover in the past two games, after taking away six footballs in the opening two weeks of the season. A couple of key injured defenders should also be ready for this one with CB Nnamdi Asomugha (eye) and S Colt Anderson (knee) both listed as probable.

Ben Roethlisberger has played extremely well in 2012, completing 68.3% of his passes for 904 yards (284 YPG), 8 TD and just one interception. However, the Eagles sacked him eight times when they last met in 2008, and he has already taken nine sacks in his three games this year. Part of that is because of an injury-riddled offensive line, and part of that is because defenses have been teeing off on Roethlisberger because the Steelers are having so much trouble running the football with 65 rushing YPG (3rd-fewest in NFL) on a league-low 2.6 yards per carry. The probable return of Rashard Mendenhall coming off knee surgery can only help. He rushed for 928 yards and 9 TD last season. On defense, Polamalu and Harrison look to shore up a run defense that allowed 119 yards on just 21 carries (5.7 YPC) to Oakland in the last game. Harrison is also one of the better pass rushers on the team, and his absence is a big reason why the Steelers have a mere five sacks in three games. Pittsburgh has been one of the league’ best passing defenses, allowing just 190 yards per game (3rd in NFL), but the team has given up a subpar 48.5% third-down conversion rate.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27376 Followers:33
10/07/2012 12:13 AM

NFL Week 5 Preview: Falcons at Redskins

ATLANTA FALCONS (4-0)

at WASHINGTON REDSKINS (2-2)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Atlanta -3, Total: 50

The high-flying Falcons look to start their season with a fifth straight victory when they visit the Redskins on Sunday.

Robert Griffin III gets his toughest challenge yet against a Falcons defense that’s playing very well under first-year coordinator Mike Nolan, allowing just 19.0 PPG. Atlanta has effectively contained Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers so far this year, and they’re coming off a game against a dual threat quarterback (Cam Newton), beating Carolina last week. Griffin has already led the ‘Skins to two road wins, but they played terribly in their only home game so far, a 38-31 loss to Cincinnati. Their suspect pass defense will have its hands full against WRs Roddy White and Julio Jones.

Can the Falcons start the season with their fifth straight victory? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Atlanta has scored at least 27 points in each of its four victories, thanks mostly to Matt Ryan who leads the NFL in QB rating (112.1) by completing 69.4% of his passes for 1,162 yards, 11 TD and just 2 INT. He has spread the wealth of passes mostly between three players, targeting Roddy White, Julio Jones and TE Tony Gonzalez in excess of 30 times each this season. That has resulted in each of the three players scoring three touchdowns this year. RB Michael Turner has really picked up his game in the past two games, following up dud performances in Weeks 1-2 (74 yards on 28 carries) into two productive ones (183 yards on 27 carries, 69 yards on five catches). Turner exploded on the Redskins when he last faced them in 2009, rushing for 166 yards and 2 TD. The Falcons have been better than expected in defending the pass (207 YPG allowed, 8th in NFL), especially after losing starting CB Brent Grimes for the season in Week 1 with an Achilles injury. However, the run-stop unit has been one of the worst in football, allowing 146 rushing YPG (fourth-most in NFL).

Griffin’s statistics are truly remarkable for a rookie quarterback on an average team. He has scored eight touchdowns already, completing 69.4% of his passes (same rate as Ryan) for 1,070 yards (8.6 YPA) and just one interception in 124 pass attempts. He and fellow rookie Alfred Morris (376 rushing yards, 4.6 YPC, 4 TD) have comprised 89 percent of the league’s second-best rushing offense (171 YPG). Unlike Atlanta, which has three main receivers, the Redskins have seven players with at least seven catches so far this year. TE Fred Davis leads the team with 15 catches, but has not yet scored a touchdown. WR Pierre Garcon is their most explosive weapon, but his injured foot is still causing him to play a limited snap count. Washington’s defense has had an awful time trying to stop its opponents. The Redskins rank second-to-last in passing defense (326 YPG), allowing 20 gains of 20-plus yards already this season. They have also been unable to put forth a strong pass rush, tallying just seven sacks over the four games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27376 Followers:33
10/07/2012 12:14 AM

NFL Week 5 Preview: Chargers at Saints

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (3-1)

at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (0-4)


Kickoff: Sunday, 8:25 p.m. EDT
Line: New Orleans -3½, Total: 54

The Saints are in dire straits, looking for their first win of the season as they welcome the surprising Chargers to the Bayou on Sunday night.

Typically slow starters, San Diego has jumped out to a 3-1 record as they’ve committed multiple turnovers in a game just once through four games. They haven’t quite been explosive on offense, but QB Philip Rivers and especially RB Ryan Mathews will have a chance to get going against a Saints defense that is the NFL’s worst (463 total YPG allowed). They have allowed 400-plus yards in each of their four games. New Orleans had a chance to steal a win in Green Bay last week, but lost on a late missed field goal. That gives the Saints four defeats of eight points or less this year.

Can the Saints finally win a game this season? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Rivers bounced back from rough Week 3 game against Atlanta (45.2 QB rating, 4.6 YPA, 0 TD, 2 INT), by completing 18-of-23 passes (78%) for 209 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT in the 37-20 win over Kansas City last Sunday. RB Ryan Mathews had another solid day as he works his way back from a broken clavicle, compiling 61 rushing yards (4.4 YPC) and 21 receiving yards. RB Jackie Battle is sharing the rushing workload for now, but he gained just 39 yards on 15 carries (2.6 YPC) at Kansas City. On the defensive side of the ball, San Diego’s secondary is hurting, with just three healthy cornerbacks. But the Chargers have really stopped the run effectively all season, allowing just 79 rushing YPG (5th in NFL). The defense also forced six Chiefs turnovers in last week’s win.

Saints QB Drew Brees has thrown a touchdown pass in 47 straight games, tying the record set by Johnny Unitas in 1960. The last time he faced his former team was 2008 when New Orleans and San Diego met in London. Brees threw for 339 yards and 3 TD that day, leading his team to a 37-32 win. He’s also coming off his best performance of 2012, posting a 109.0 QB rating (446 pass yds, 3 TD, 0 INT) against Green Bay. It helped to have a healthy Marques Colston back on the field, as the duo connected nine times for 153 yards and 1 TD. One of the reasons New Orleans has allowed 32.5 PPG and 167 more yards than any other NFL team is the lack of a pass rush. The Saints have just six sacks, which is the fourth-lowest total in the league. Injuries have also been a big factor to the front seven. LB David Hawthorne (hamstring) and DE Turk McBride (ankle) are doubtful to play on Sunday, while DT Brodrick Bunkley (illness) and LB Jonathan Casillas (neck) are both questionable. S Roman Harper (hip) is also questionable to suit up in Week 5.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27376 Followers:33
10/07/2012 12:16 AM

NFL Week 5 Preview: Texans at Jets

HOUSTON TEXANS (4-0)

at NEW YORK JETS (2-2)


Kickoff: Monday, 8:35 p.m. EDT
Line: Houston -8, Total: 41½

After losing another star to a season-ending injury, the Jets have the unenviable task of hosting the unbeaten Texans on Monday night.

One week after losing their best defensive player, CB Darrelle Revis (ACL), Gang Green has lost their best offensive player for the entire season, as WR Santonio Holmes suffered a Lisfranc foot injury in Week 4. New York was embarrassed at home by the 49ers in that 34-0 defeat, and now takes on a Houston team that has a very similar profile to San Francisco. The Texans have an elite defense to go along with an outstanding ball-control offense.

Can the Texans roll to another victory? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Houston has outscored its opponents 126 to 56 this season, winning three games by 20+ points. QB Matt Schaub has been magnificent in his past two games, throwing for 492 yards, 6 TD and just 1 INT. Revis took star WR Andre Johnson out of the past two meetings, holding him to less than 40 yards each time. However, Johnson should be more accessible for Schaub this time around with Revis sidelined. Johnson has been bothered by a groin injury during 2012, and has just eight catches in his past three contests. Despite Schaub’s recent heroics, the Texans will likely use a run-heavy approach on offense. Although Tennessee held them to 95 yards on 31 carries (3.1 YPC) last week, Houston has galloped for 368 yards in its two road games this season. Another great aspect of the Texans offense has been ball protection, as they have had zero turnovers in three of their four games this season. Two of their better offensive players are likely out for this game though -- RB Ben Tate (toe) and WR Lestar Jean (knee). On defense, Houston has been very opportunistic, forcing nine turnovers already, including three in last week’s victory. DE J.J. Watt has been wreaking havoc all season with a league-best 7½ sacks to go along with 20 tackles (16 solo) and five passes defensed. Houston ranks second in the NFL in passing defense (183 YPG), and 11th in rushing defense (90 YPG) despite allowing 158 rushing yards to Tennessee last week.

The Jets offense was dreadful against San Francisco last week, as they rushed for 45 yards on 17 carries (2.6 YPC), while QB Mark Sanchez finished 13-of-29 for 103 yards (3.6 YPA), 0 TD and 1 INT. Considering Houston’s outstanding passing defense and the likely absence of both WR Stephen Hill and TE Dustin Keller because of hamstring injuries, it could be another rough game for Sanchez. His passer rating has been below 70 for three straight games, as he’s 44-for-101 for 547 yards (5.4 YPA), 2 TD and 3 INT during this stretch. Top RB Shonn Greene has also been terrible in his past three games, rushing for just 97 yards on 41 carries (2.4 YPC) with zero touchdowns. This may cause backup Bilal Powell to get more carries, but he has not flourished in his second year, rushing for just 99 yards on 26 carries (3.8 YPC). Although the Jets have been steamrolled by opposing rushing offenses (173 rushing YPG allowed, 2nd-most in NFL), they do rank fourth in the NFL in passing defense (198 YPG). New York’s defensive injury bug extends beyond Revis. DT Sione Po’uha (back) and LBs Bart Scott (toe) and Bryan Thomas (hamstring) are all listed as questionable to play on Monday night.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27376 Followers:33
10/07/2012 12:18 AM

NFL | CLEVELAND at NY GIANTS
Play Over - Road teams against the total after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game
34-11 over the last 10 seasons. ( 75.6% | 21.9 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% | 0.9 units )


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NFL | MIAMI at CINCINNATI
Play Against - Any team vs the money line (CINCINNATI) with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 27 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points
64-34 since 1997. ( 65.3% | 0.0 units )


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NFL | BUFFALO at SAN FRANCISCO
Play Over - Home teams against the 1rst half total after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers
41-15 over the last 10 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27376 Followers:33
10/07/2012 12:23 AM

NFL Tech Trends - Week 5

October 4, 2012


Thursday, Oct. 4 - NFL, 8:25 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Cards won and covered both meetings LY. Big Red 11-2 SU last 13 and 10-4 vs. spread last 14 since mid 2011. Both "under" 3-1 TY. "Under" and Cards, based on "totals" and team trends.

Sunday, Oct. 7 - All games to start at 1:00 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Skins "over" 8-2-1 last 11 since late 2011. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

Andy Reid 5-2 last seven as pick or dog. Tomlin has covered only 8 of last 21 on board since late 2010, though he is 6-3 vs. number at home since last season (bigger problems vs. spread on road). Steel also now "under" 6-1 last 7 at Heinz Field. "Under," based on "totals" and team trends.

Pack now no covers last three away from home and just 5-6 last 11 on board since late 2011. Pack also "over" 46-26 since 2007 for McCarthy (14-7 "over" since 2011). "Over," based on extended Pack 'totals" trends.

Browns have only dropped one spread decision (2-1-1) thus far with Weeden at QB in 2012. Brownies also "under" 3-1 TY and now "under" 17-7-1 since late in the 2010 campaign. "Under," based on "totals" trends.

Dolphins 6-1 vs. line last 6 away since mid 2011 and 9-3-1 last 13 on board. Cincy 4-3-1 as chalk since LY after 6-20 mark in role from 2007-10. Slight to Dolphins, based on team trends.

Baltimore has covered 5 of last 7 away, and Ravens 7-4 "over" last 11 on road. Ravens and slight to "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Sunday, Sept. 30 - Games to start at 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Pete Carroll "under" 4-0 TY, Seahawks also 8-1 last nine as "short" since mid 2011. Seattle also 13-5 last 18 overall vs. number. Seahawks and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

Bears "under" 7-3 last 10 on road, Jags "under" 14-6 since 2011. Jax also just 2-6 last 8 as home dog . "Under" and Bears, based on "totals" and team trends.

Munchak still only 7-13 vs. number since becoming Titan HC last year, also no covers last four as visitor. Titans "over" 5-1 last five since late LY. Vikes 0-2 as chalk TY and 1-7 record as chalk since 2011. Titans and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Belichick won and covered big in two meetings vs. Tebow LY. Denver "over" 29-14-1 since late in 2009, Belichick "over" 30-12 since late 2009. Peyton Manning has covered 5 of his last 7 vs. Belichick. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

Harbaugh 9-1-1 vs. line at home since LY. Chan just 2-5 vs. line last 7 away. Bills "over" 9-4 last 13 away. 49ers and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Sunday, Oct. 7 - NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Saints "over" 19-11 last 30, Norv "over" 10-2 last 12 away. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

Monday, Oct. 8 - ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Kubiak 4-0 SU and vs. line TY and now 18-5 vs. points last 23 on board. Rexy only 2-5-1 as dog since LY. Texans, based on recent Kubiak trends.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27376 Followers:33
10/07/2012 12:23 AM

NFL Tech Trends - Week 5

October 4, 2012


Thursday, Oct. 4 - NFL, 8:25 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Cards won and covered both meetings LY. Big Red 11-2 SU last 13 and 10-4 vs. spread last 14 since mid 2011. Both "under" 3-1 TY. "Under" and Cards, based on "totals" and team trends.

Sunday, Oct. 7 - All games to start at 1:00 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Skins "over" 8-2-1 last 11 since late 2011. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

Andy Reid 5-2 last seven as pick or dog. Tomlin has covered only 8 of last 21 on board since late 2010, though he is 6-3 vs. number at home since last season (bigger problems vs. spread on road). Steel also now "under" 6-1 last 7 at Heinz Field. "Under," based on "totals" and team trends.

Pack now no covers last three away from home and just 5-6 last 11 on board since late 2011. Pack also "over" 46-26 since 2007 for McCarthy (14-7 "over" since 2011). "Over," based on extended Pack 'totals" trends.

Browns have only dropped one spread decision (2-1-1) thus far with Weeden at QB in 2012. Brownies also "under" 3-1 TY and now "under" 17-7-1 since late in the 2010 campaign. "Under," based on "totals" trends.

Dolphins 6-1 vs. line last 6 away since mid 2011 and 9-3-1 last 13 on board. Cincy 4-3-1 as chalk since LY after 6-20 mark in role from 2007-10. Slight to Dolphins, based on team trends.

Baltimore has covered 5 of last 7 away, and Ravens 7-4 "over" last 11 on road. Ravens and slight to "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Sunday, Sept. 30 - Games to start at 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Pete Carroll "under" 4-0 TY, Seahawks also 8-1 last nine as "short" since mid 2011. Seattle also 13-5 last 18 overall vs. number. Seahawks and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

Bears "under" 7-3 last 10 on road, Jags "under" 14-6 since 2011. Jax also just 2-6 last 8 as home dog . "Under" and Bears, based on "totals" and team trends.

Munchak still only 7-13 vs. number since becoming Titan HC last year, also no covers last four as visitor. Titans "over" 5-1 last five since late LY. Vikes 0-2 as chalk TY and 1-7 record as chalk since 2011. Titans and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Belichick won and covered big in two meetings vs. Tebow LY. Denver "over" 29-14-1 since late in 2009, Belichick "over" 30-12 since late 2009. Peyton Manning has covered 5 of his last 7 vs. Belichick. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

Harbaugh 9-1-1 vs. line at home since LY. Chan just 2-5 vs. line last 7 away. Bills "over" 9-4 last 13 away. 49ers and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Sunday, Oct. 7 - NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Saints "over" 19-11 last 30, Norv "over" 10-2 last 12 away. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

Monday, Oct. 8 - ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Kubiak 4-0 SU and vs. line TY and now 18-5 vs. points last 23 on board. Rexy only 2-5-1 as dog since LY. Texans, based on recent Kubiak trends.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27376 Followers:33
10/07/2012 12:25 AM

Gridiron Angles - Week 5

October 5, 2012

NFL ATS TREND:

-- The Titans are 11-0 ATS (13.8 ppg) since October 8, 2006 following a game where they were 7+-point dogs.

NFL OU TREND:

-- The Chiefs are 11-0 OU (15.1 ppg) since November 22, 1998 following a game where they trailed by double digits after the first quarter and scored less points than expected.

NCAA ATS PLAY ON TREND:

-- Oregon St. is 14-0 ATS (16.0 ppg) since October 16, 1999 when they have three wins on the season and one team is favored.

NCAA ATS PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- Eastern Michigan is 0-12 ATS (-9.7 ppg) since 1996 when they covered by 15+ points last game and aren’t 26+ point underdogs, if they are no better than .500 on the season.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:

-- Teams which have thrown for less than 150 yards in each of the last three games are 131-96-5 ATS. Active on Seattle.

NFL BIBLE TREND OF THE WEEK:

-- The Dolphins are 16-0 ATS (+8.8 ppg) since November 2006 as a dog off a game in which their defense stifled at least ten third down attempts and recorded at least one sack.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27376 Followers:33
10/07/2012 12:29 AM

Total Talk - Week 5

October 6, 2012

Week 4 Recap

Gamblers watched the ‘over’ go 8-7 last week and a lot of the games were either hurt or helped with second-half outputs. Anybody chasing ‘over’ tickets were certainly pleased last week, as the ‘over’ went 10-5 in the second-half.

It’s safe to say that when you see those lopsided results, you know some ‘under’ tickets were tough losses, in particular the Miami-Arizona outcome. The Dolphins and Cardinals ‘under’ was definitely the right side and the score was 13-7 heading into the fourth quarter. Sure enough, some huge plays and key fourth-quarter conversions helped the score get knotted at 21 and that was all that was needed to go ‘over’ the closing total of 40 ½ points.

On the year, the ‘under’ stands at 32-31 through 63 games. Keep in mind that there are only 14 games this week with four teams on bye and all of the contests are non-divisional.

Off the Bye

Two teams, Pittsburgh and Indianapolis, weren’t in action last week due to their byes. We bring that to your attention because the ‘under’ went 24-8 (75%) last season in games that featured at least one team playing with rest.

One reason that can be argued is the new rules created by the NFLPA, which mandates that players must receive four consecutive days off at one point during their bye week. In simple terms, just because a team is off doesn’t mean that they’ll be prepared.

The Steelers host the Eagles on Sunday and the number has already dropped (see below). Pittsburgh has watched the ‘over’ go 2-1 this season while the Eagles have seen the ‘under’ go 3-1. Surprisingly, Philadelphia’s defense is playing better than the offense this season.

If Indianapolis wants to win this weekend, most would believe that it will have to score some serious points at home against Green Bay. The Colts allowed 20 and 22 points in their first two home games and that came against inferior attacks in the Vikings and Jaguars. However, the Packers’ offense isn’t clicking this season, especially when you compare it to last year’s numbers. To put things in perspective, Green Bay scored 30 or more points in 11 of its 17 games. Through four games this season, the Packers haven’t busted the 30-point barrier and the total is hovering on the high side of 48.

Early Tendencies

Washington has started the season with four straight ‘over’ tickets. Oddsmakers have been tweaking numbers with the Redskins’ totals all season and this week is no different. The line for Week 5’s game against Atlanta opened at 52 and took an early hit down to 50 but has bounced back up to 51 ½ points. Perhaps some pundits are expecting rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III to hit a wall. It hasn’t happened so far and another great component for ‘over’ tickets is a shaky defense and that’s what the Redskins have. The unit is allowing 415 YPG and 30.8 PPG, plus the pass rush has only generated seven sacks in four games. If Atlanta’s Matt Ryan gets time on Sunday, another 30-spot could easily be posted in D.C.

Seattle has proven to us that it has a legit defense (14.5 PPG) and an offense that’s very limited. Similar to Washington, the Seahawks are using a rookie quarterback as well. Unfortunately, Russell Wilson (4 INTs, 4 TDs) hasn’t had much success in his debut season, especially on third-down conversions (28%). When you combine these facts, it usually produces low-scoring affairs. With that being said, we shouldn’t be surprised that Seattle is a perfect 4-0 to the ‘under’ this season. This week, the Seahawks will head back on the road to face Carolina, who has the ability to score. The total opened at 44 and dropped quickly (see below) and you can certainly understand why. This will be the third road game of the season for Seattle, who scored 16 and 13 points in the first two games as a visitor.

Line Moves

After watching the early money go 7-1 in Week 3, the sharps weren’t exactly sharp in Week 4. In the eight totals that saw line moves (up or down) of 1 ½-points or more, only the Seattle-St. Louis ‘under’ was the correct call. Below are the Week 4 totals that have been adjusted by 1 ½ points or more at CRIS as of Saturday night.

Philadelphia-Pittsburgh: Line opened at 44 ½ and dropped to 43
Miami-Cincinnati: Line opened at 44 and jumped to 45 ½
Tennessee-Minnesota: Line opened at 45 ½ and dropped to 44
Seattle-Carolina: Line opened at 44 and dropped to 42 1/2

Under the Lights

The Eagles-Giants matchup on SNF started slow and wound up going 'under’ the closing number of 46 but could’ve gotten there with some help. On Monday, the Bears and Cowboys certainly got help from mistakes. Chicago led 3-0 late in the second quarter before Dallas gave up four big plays, two of them coming with interception returns for touchdowns. What looked like an easy ‘under’ turned into an ‘over’ ticket.

Through 14 games, the ‘under’ stands at 10-4 (71%) in primetime games this season. Bettors could be looking at a shootout on SNF, when New Orleans and San Diego clash from “The Big Easy.” The total (53) is the highest on the board and could get there easily if they convert touchdowns and not field goals.

Fearless Predictions

We juiced out last week and with a couple bounces, we probably could’ve swept the board again. You don’t get paid for close-calls, so we’ll accept the 20 cents ($20) loss. Overall, we’re still up $160 and looking to bounce back. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!

Best Over: San Diego-New Orleans 53

Best Under: Chicago-Jacksonville 41

Best Team Total: Over 28 New Orleans

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 44 San Diego-New Orleans
Under 50 Chicago-Jacksonville
Under 54 Miami-Cincinnati

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27376 Followers:33
10/07/2012 12:31 AM

Week 5 Tips

October 5, 2012

One month is in the books inside the NFL season as only two teams remain unbeaten following Arizona's loss at St. Louis on Thursday. The Falcons look to move to 5-0 with a trip to Washington, while the Texans are long favorites on Monday night against the Jets. Four favorites on Sunday are attempting to avoid a letdown when they take on inferior opponents, as we'll see if these public teams are solid bets this weekend.

Falcons (-3, 51 ½) at Redskins - 1:00 PM EST

Atlanta rolled through its first three opponents (Kansas City, Denver, and San Diego), but had its struggles in a 30-28 home victory over Carolina last week as seven-point favorites. The Falcons head to the Nation's Capital to take on electric rookie Robert Griffin III and a Redskins' squad that is 2-2 through four weeks.

Washington won and covered each opportunity as an underdog this season at New Orleans and Tampa Bay, while staving off the Buccaneers with a game-winning field goal in last Sunday's 24-22 victory. The Redskins are playing only their second game at FedEx Field, as Mike Shanahan's club lost in the favorite role in Week 3 to the Bengals, 38-31, as Washington is a perfect 4-0 to the 'over' this season.

The Falcons have scored at least 27 points in all four games, but the 'over' sits at just 2-2. Mike Smith's squad owns a 10-5 ATS record as a road favorite since 2008, including a victory at Kansas City in the season opener. Atlanta is making its first trip to D.C. since 2006, when the Falcons beat the Redskins, 24-14 as one-point underdogs, a game that dates back to the famed Jim Mora, Jr. era.

Ravens (-6, 46 ½) at Chiefs - 1:00 PM EST

Baltimore has been off since last Thursday night's home victory over Cleveland, as the Ravens head to Kansas City for the first time since knocking off the Chiefs in the Wild Card round in January 2011. Two teams have lost three games by double-digits this season, as both the Chiefs and Titans search for their second win on Sunday.

Romeo Crennel's team has failed to be competitive in three losses to the Falcons, Chargers, and Bills, while needing to rally from an 18-point deficit to force overtime in a victory at New Orleans. The Chiefs haven't cashed in any loss this season, but Kansas City has compiled a 6-3 ATS record as an underdog at Arrowhead Stadium since 2010. Due to an atrocious defensive effort through four games, the 'over' is 3-1 so far, while the Chiefs have allowed at least 35 points in all three defeats.

The Ravens hit the road for just the second time in 2012, as Baltimore's first away contest was a bitter 24-23 defeat at Philadelphia in Week 2. John Harbaugh's club managed a 23-16 win over the Browns in Week 4, but failed to cash as 11-point favorites. Baltimore owns a 7-4 ATS record the last 11 in the role of road 'chalk,' including the 30-7 rout of the Chiefs to advance to the second round of the 2011 postseason.

Bears (-4 ½, 41) at Jaguars - 4:05 PM EST

An interesting spot for Chicago, coming off Monday's dominating performance as a road 'dog at Dallas. The Bears crushed the Cowboys, 34-18, while intercepting Tony Romo five times, including returning two of those picks for touchdowns. Now, the Bears head to North Florida for a late kickoff with the struggling Jaguars, who fell by 17 points to the Bengals in Week 4.

Lovie Smith's club has put together an impressive 3-1 ATS record, including a pair of double-digit victories in the favorite role over the Colts and Rams. Chicago faces another team in this class, as Jacksonville has scored a grand total of 17 points in two home games. The Jaguars are 3-7 SU/ATS at home off a loss since 2009, which includes a victory over the Ravens last season as a 10-point 'dog.

The Bears are listed as a road favorite for the first time this season, as Chicago is 7-3-1 ATS since 2007 when laying points away from Soldier Field. The defense has held their last two opponents (St. Louis and Dallas) to just 24 points combined, while the Bears own a 5-1 ATS record the last six opportunities as a favorite off a straight-up victory as an underdog.

Bills at 49ers (-9 ½, 44 ½) - 4:25 PM EST

The Niners rebounded nicely from a Week 3 loss at Minnesota by slicing up the Jets, 34-0 last Sunday. San Francisco returns home after spending the last two weeks on the highway to host a Buffalo team that is reeling following a 52-28 beatdown at the hands of New England. How bad was it for the Bills? Chan Gailey's squad led 21-7 before the Patriots ran off 35 unanswered points, as New England improved to 22-2 to the last 24 meetings with Buffalo since 2000.

Since Jim Harbaugh's arrival in the Bay last season, the 49ers are 15-6-1 ATS, while cashing three of four times in 2012. San Francisco has failed to cover one time in this span at Candlestick Park, losing the NFC Championship to the Giants in overtime this past January. The Niners have won six of their previous seven home games against AFC opponents, including a pair of double-digit triumphs over the Steelers and Browns last season.

The Bills have been involved in three high-scoring affairs this season, while allowing at least 48 points in two defeats. In the last 10 games in the road underdog role, Buffalo is just 3-6-1 ATS, including the 20-point blowout loss in the season opener to the Jets. The 'over' is on a nice run for the Bills, going 6-1 since last December.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: