cnotes Posts:27290 Followers:33
10/07/2012 12:34 AM

Betting the bye: NFL's best/worst bets off the bye week

Week 5 of the NFL season is the first time football bettors will deal with teams coming off bye weeks.

The break in the schedule can be a blessing or a burden, depending on a team’s situation. This week, two teams are returning to action following the bye – the Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts.

The Steelers (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) got an extra week to rid the taste of an upset loss to the Oakland Raiders in Week 3 as well as give RB Rashard Mendenhall, S Troy Polamalu and LB James Harrison some added recovery time.

Pittsburgh, which takes on state rival Philadelphia as a 3.5-point home favorite Sunday, is just 10-13 ATS (14-9 SU) coming off a bye week since 1990.

The Colts had a rough week off with news that head coach Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia. Pagano will step away from the team for treatment, leaving the head coaching duties to offensive coordinator Bruce Arians. Indianapolis followed its first win of the season with a close loss to Jacksonville in Week 3, failing to cover as a 3-point home favorite.

Oddsmakers have tagged the Colts as 7-point underdogs hosting Green Bay in their first game back from the break. Since 1990, Indianapolis is 12-10-1 ATS (13-10 SU) following the bye.

Dallas, Detroit, Oakland, and Tampa Bay are all off in Week 5 and betting the bye week can be a useful handicapping tool throughout the NFL season. Here’s a look at the best and worst bets coming off the bye:

Stats since 1990 (1993 season had two bye weeks):

Best bets off the bye

Dallas Cowboys: 16-7 ATS/16-7 SU
Denver Broncos: 16-6-1 ATS/17-6 SU
Philadelphia Eagles: 16-7 ATS /19-4 SU
Arizona Cardinals: 14-9 ATS/10-13 SU
Buffalo Bills: 14-8-1 ATS/15-8 SU

Worst bets off the bye

Seattle Seahawks: 4-17-2 ATS/6-17 SU
New York Giants: 7-15-1 ATS: 8-15 SU
Oakland Raiders: 8-14-1 ATS/9-14 SU
San Francisco 49ers: 8-14-1 ATS/10-13 SU
Cincinnati Bengals: 10-13 ATS/6-17 SU

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27290 Followers:33
10/07/2012 12:36 AM

NFL Week 5 line moves: Browns-Giants see big drop

Tracking line moves as we head into the second quarter of the schedule. We spoke with Mike Perry at sportsbook.ag and Aron Black at bet365.com for a look at a few games as we follow the money.

Cleveland Browns at New York Giants – Open: Cleveland +13, Move: Cleveland +8
Betonline opened this one at a fat 13, but most everyone else was in the Browns +10 range, and since then it has been bet down a bit. “The Browns have been competitive in every game they’ve played this year,” notes Perry, and Black adds that “The Giants seem to be playing bad one week and good the next.” The public, says Perry, is on the Browns by a 2-1 margin, while Black reports light action on this one.

Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars – Open: Jacksonville +3, Move: Jacksonville +6
The Jags have only two problems – one is offense, the other defense. Both should be on display this week. And As Perry notes, “It’s tough to argue with people backing the Bears after the way they looked against the Cowboys on Monday night.” Black, meanwhile, sees a very difficult game ahead for offensive-challenged Jacksonville. Perry’s book pulls in the rope a bit and now lists J-Ville at +5.5, even though bettors are heavy (93 percent) on the Bears.

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals – Open Bengals -5.5, Move Bengals -3
This has been bet down to a field goal game, mainly because the Dolphins have been able to hang in over the last few weeks, losing by three each to the Jets and unbeaten Cardinals. Perry points out that the Dolphins had a good chance to beat Arizona last weekend. “Do they pull the upset this week?” he asks. Bettors say no, expecting a cover by a 65-35 margin. The Bengals could be overvalued, as Black notes that they will be playing their fifth straight game against a first- or second-year quarterback.

Houston Texans at New York Jets – Open: Jets +9, Move Jets +8
These teams are going in opposite directions, and the betting public (decisively on the Texans) apparently doesn’t care that the game will be played in New Jersey and that New York will be getting a touchdown and change. “If San Francisco can go up 34 on the Jets with no reply,” says Black, “what is Houston capable of?” The Jets haven’t been this big a home dog since they got 7.5 against the Colts in 2006. Jets die-hards can still get 9 by shopping around. “Question is,” says Perry, “will the Jets even make it competitive on Monday night?”

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27290 Followers:33
10/07/2012 12:37 AM

NFL poolies betting cheat sheet: Week 5

Want to handicap Sunday's NFL action but don't have time to research every game? Check out our NFL poolies cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs. We give you quick-hitting notes on all of Week 5's action.

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5, 45)

Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill will likely not have to go against the full strength of the Cincinnati secondary, with at least four cornerbacks either doubtful or questionable. Miami still has to face a Bengals’ pass rush that has racked up a league-leading 16 sacks, though. Miami leads the NFL in rushing defense, surrendering just 56.8 yards, but has been susceptible to the pass. The road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (6, 46.5)

The Ravens, who played their first four games in an 18-day span, seek their first road win of the season against a bumbling Chiefs team that committed six turnovers in last week's 37-20 loss to the Chargers. Kansas City ranks last in the NFL in turnover margin at minus-13. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Redskins (3, 51)

A pair of red-hot quarterbacks meet in the nation’s capital on Sunday as Matt Ryan brings the undefeated Falcons into FedEx Field for a meeting with rookie sensation Robert Griffin III. Ryan is the top-rated passer, completing more than 69 percent of his attempts with 11 touchdowns and just two interceptions. Griffin is on pace to throw for 4,000 yards and run for an additional thousand. The rookie from Baylor is aiming to help Washington end a seven-game slide at home. The Redskins have played over the total in their last five home contests.

Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 43)

Pittsburgh benefited from having a bye week to lick its wounds after dropping a 34-31 overtime decision to Oakland on Sept. 23. The Steelers are expected to be buoyed by the return of running back Rashard Mendenhall, who is coming back from last season's torn ACL injury. Stud safety Troy Polamalu could also return after missing two games with a strained calf and James Harrison eyes his season debut after nursing a sore left knee. The Steelers are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games following a loss.

Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts (7, 48)

The Indianapolis Colts received a shocking setback when it was revealed earlier in the week that first-year head coach Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia. Pagano will be hospitalized for six to eight weeks to undergo treatment, leaving interim coach Bruce Arians to guide the Colts. Green Bay is expected to be without wideout Greg Jennings, who aggravated a groin injury in last week's contest. These clubs have played over the total in their last four meetings.

Cleveland Browns at N.Y. Giants (-9.5, 44)

The Browns attempt to snap a 10-game losing streak against the Giants on Sunday. Cleveland RB Trent Richardson leads AFC rookies with 222 rushing yards and has a rushing TD in three straight games. The Giants will likely be without WR Hakeem Nicks (knee, foot) for a third straight week, but QB Eli Manning has thrown for 1,320, the second highest total in the league and has won seven straight starts against the AFC dating back to last season.

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (-3, 43.5)

The Seattle offense has been unimpressive under rookie QB Russell Wilson, ranking 28th in scoring (17.5) and 29th in total yards (281.5). But the defense has kept the Seahawks in games, allowing just 14.5 points and 275.8 total yards per game. The most puzzling aspect of Carolina’s early-season struggles has been the inconsistency of the run game, which averaged 35 yards on the ground against Tampa Bay and the New York Giants and 209 rushing yards against New Orleans and Atlanta. The home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars (4.5, 41)

The Jacksonville Jaguars own the worst offense in the NFL - and now host a Chicago Bears team that has forced seven interceptions in the last two weeks and leads the NFL with 11 on the season. The home team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (-6.5, 51.5)

Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, two of the most iconic quarterbacks in NFL history, will meet for the 13th time when the New England Patriots host the Denver Broncos on Sunday. Brady is 8-4 head-to-head against Manning - all during Manning's 14 seasons with Indianapolis. New England became the first team in NFL history with a 300-yard passer last week at Buffalo, two 100-yard rushers (Brandon Bolden, Stevan Ridley) and a pair of 100-yard receivers (Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski). The Broncos are 1-7 ATS in their last eight October games.

Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5, 44.5)

San Francisco had a dominant performance against the Jets last week. The defense allowed a season-low 145 total yards in the shutout, and the offense was efficient, which has become quarterback Alex Smith's hallmark. Smith has been steady as ever, completing 67.3 percent of his passes for 784 yards with five touchdowns and one interception, and Frank Gore (326 yards, 3 TDs) averages 4.9 yards per attempt. The over is 8-2-1 in the Bills’ last 11 road games.

Tennessee Titans at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5, 44)

The Titans’ biggest problem is a defense that is allowing an NFL-worst 37.8 points per game. The passing defense has been especially horrific, allowing an NFL-worst 75.3 percent completion rate and the second most touchdowns (10). The Titans' other current issue is at quarterback after Jake Locker (shoulder) was injured in the loss to Houston last week. Veteran QB Matt Hasselbeck, who had a pair of interceptions returned for touchdowns in relief, will be called on to start. The Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.

San Diego Chargers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5, 54)

The Saints will continue to have trouble winning until their NFL-worst defense (463.2 yards per game) figures out a way to keep the opponent out of the end zone. The Chargers are coming off a 37-20 victory at Kansas City, and will try for their second consecutive 4-1 start. New Orleans has played over the total in eight of its last nine games overall.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27290 Followers:33
10/07/2012 12:37 AM

NFL poolies betting cheat sheet: Week 5

Want to handicap Sunday's NFL action but don't have time to research every game? Check out our NFL poolies cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs. We give you quick-hitting notes on all of Week 5's action.

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5, 45)

Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill will likely not have to go against the full strength of the Cincinnati secondary, with at least four cornerbacks either doubtful or questionable. Miami still has to face a Bengals’ pass rush that has racked up a league-leading 16 sacks, though. Miami leads the NFL in rushing defense, surrendering just 56.8 yards, but has been susceptible to the pass. The road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (6, 46.5)

The Ravens, who played their first four games in an 18-day span, seek their first road win of the season against a bumbling Chiefs team that committed six turnovers in last week's 37-20 loss to the Chargers. Kansas City ranks last in the NFL in turnover margin at minus-13. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Redskins (3, 51)

A pair of red-hot quarterbacks meet in the nation’s capital on Sunday as Matt Ryan brings the undefeated Falcons into FedEx Field for a meeting with rookie sensation Robert Griffin III. Ryan is the top-rated passer, completing more than 69 percent of his attempts with 11 touchdowns and just two interceptions. Griffin is on pace to throw for 4,000 yards and run for an additional thousand. The rookie from Baylor is aiming to help Washington end a seven-game slide at home. The Redskins have played over the total in their last five home contests.

Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 43)

Pittsburgh benefited from having a bye week to lick its wounds after dropping a 34-31 overtime decision to Oakland on Sept. 23. The Steelers are expected to be buoyed by the return of running back Rashard Mendenhall, who is coming back from last season's torn ACL injury. Stud safety Troy Polamalu could also return after missing two games with a strained calf and James Harrison eyes his season debut after nursing a sore left knee. The Steelers are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games following a loss.

Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts (7, 48)

The Indianapolis Colts received a shocking setback when it was revealed earlier in the week that first-year head coach Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia. Pagano will be hospitalized for six to eight weeks to undergo treatment, leaving interim coach Bruce Arians to guide the Colts. Green Bay is expected to be without wideout Greg Jennings, who aggravated a groin injury in last week's contest. These clubs have played over the total in their last four meetings.

Cleveland Browns at N.Y. Giants (-9.5, 44)

The Browns attempt to snap a 10-game losing streak against the Giants on Sunday. Cleveland RB Trent Richardson leads AFC rookies with 222 rushing yards and has a rushing TD in three straight games. The Giants will likely be without WR Hakeem Nicks (knee, foot) for a third straight week, but QB Eli Manning has thrown for 1,320, the second highest total in the league and has won seven straight starts against the AFC dating back to last season.

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (-3, 43.5)

The Seattle offense has been unimpressive under rookie QB Russell Wilson, ranking 28th in scoring (17.5) and 29th in total yards (281.5). But the defense has kept the Seahawks in games, allowing just 14.5 points and 275.8 total yards per game. The most puzzling aspect of Carolina’s early-season struggles has been the inconsistency of the run game, which averaged 35 yards on the ground against Tampa Bay and the New York Giants and 209 rushing yards against New Orleans and Atlanta. The home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars (4.5, 41)

The Jacksonville Jaguars own the worst offense in the NFL - and now host a Chicago Bears team that has forced seven interceptions in the last two weeks and leads the NFL with 11 on the season. The home team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (-6.5, 51.5)

Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, two of the most iconic quarterbacks in NFL history, will meet for the 13th time when the New England Patriots host the Denver Broncos on Sunday. Brady is 8-4 head-to-head against Manning - all during Manning's 14 seasons with Indianapolis. New England became the first team in NFL history with a 300-yard passer last week at Buffalo, two 100-yard rushers (Brandon Bolden, Stevan Ridley) and a pair of 100-yard receivers (Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski). The Broncos are 1-7 ATS in their last eight October games.

Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5, 44.5)

San Francisco had a dominant performance against the Jets last week. The defense allowed a season-low 145 total yards in the shutout, and the offense was efficient, which has become quarterback Alex Smith's hallmark. Smith has been steady as ever, completing 67.3 percent of his passes for 784 yards with five touchdowns and one interception, and Frank Gore (326 yards, 3 TDs) averages 4.9 yards per attempt. The over is 8-2-1 in the Bills’ last 11 road games.

Tennessee Titans at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5, 44)

The Titans’ biggest problem is a defense that is allowing an NFL-worst 37.8 points per game. The passing defense has been especially horrific, allowing an NFL-worst 75.3 percent completion rate and the second most touchdowns (10). The Titans' other current issue is at quarterback after Jake Locker (shoulder) was injured in the loss to Houston last week. Veteran QB Matt Hasselbeck, who had a pair of interceptions returned for touchdowns in relief, will be called on to start. The Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.

San Diego Chargers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5, 54)

The Saints will continue to have trouble winning until their NFL-worst defense (463.2 yards per game) figures out a way to keep the opponent out of the end zone. The Chargers are coming off a 37-20 victory at Kansas City, and will try for their second consecutive 4-1 start. New Orleans has played over the total in eight of its last nine games overall.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27290 Followers:33
10/07/2012 12:38 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 5

Sunday's games
Falcons (4-0) @ Redskins (2-2)—Washington plays fun games to watch; all four went over total, with Skins scoring 24+ in every game, allowing 22+- they’ve got 13 TDs on 48 drives, averaging 5.27 ppp in red zone- they’ve run ball for 175.5 yards/game, so you wonder how bad their defense would be if they weren’t running ball so well. One area Skins have struggled is on 3rd down, converting just 13 for 51 (25.4%), part of why they’ve won field position battle only once in four games. Atlanta pulled home game out of hat last week vs Carolina team with mobile QB Newton; Falcons won field position battle in all four games; they’re +8 in turnovers, with seven INTs and only three giveaways. Road team won last four series games, with average total in last five, 48.8. Falcons won their last three visits here- they’re 10-5 vs spread in last 15 games as road favorite, 20-8-1 in last 29 games where spread was 3 or less points. Since ’08, Washington is 9-11-2 as a home dog.

Eagles (3-1) @ Steelers (1-2)—Iggles have three wins by total of four points, as Vick has led game-winning drive in last 2:00 of all three wins; last week was their first turnover-free game, after they had 12 giveaways in first three games (-6). Philly off physical win over divisional rival Giants; they scored only one offensive TD in last two games (19 drives) and scored total of 23 points in splitting pair of road games. Pitt off bye after sluggish 1-2 start; add in Steelers’ post-bye stat. Eagles are 8-3 in last 11 series games, splitting last four visits here. Over last seven years, Steelers are 18-10 vs spread vs NFC foes; since ’06, they’re 17-12 as non-divisional home favorites. Eagles are 5-9 vs spread in last 14 vs AFC squads, but since ’06, they’re 13-4 as road underdog. Three of four Philly games stayed under the total. NFC teams are (9-4) vs AFC squads so far this season.

Packers (2-2) @ Colts (1-2)—Figure Colts to be emotional here- they found out this week their head coach has leukemia, and will be gone for most of rest of season. Indy off its bye, after splitting pair of close home games with Vikes/Jags (they led both games by 11 points at half). Add in Colts’ post-bye stats. Last two Packer games were decided by total of 3 points; they lost only road game (14-12 on controversial late TD at Seattle) and haven’t had takeaway in three of four games, so defense is suspect. Home side won last five series games, with Green Bay 0-3 in Indy, giving up 41 ppg, but those trends are all with #18 under center. Since 2006, Pack is 16-7-1 vs spread as road favorites- they’ve covered 15 of last 20 games vs AFC opponents. Football teams generally do worse with change of routine (see Saints) so shift of duties with Coach Pagano on sick leave will hamper progress of young Indy squad.

Browns (0-4) @ Giants (2-2)—Game opened Giants -13, was quickly bet down to -9, as Browns have yet to lose game by more than 10 points-- they’ve also had three extra days to prep after 23-16 loss (+11) in Baltimore last Thursday. Cleveland defense has been decent in red zone last three weeks, allowing four TDs, three FGs (4.00 ppp) last 10 times they were threatened. Problem for Browns is they haven’t run ball well (30 rushes for 76 yards in last two games), which exposes defense to Giant aerial attack (10.0/7.2/7.4 ypa last three games). Underdogs are 12-0 vs spread in non-divisional games involving NFC East squads (NFC East non-divisional favorites are 0-8). Trap game for Giants, after last-minute loss in Philly and with 49ers on deck; since ’09, Big Blue is 6-17-1 as home favorite (4-10-1 outside division)- they covered twice in last seven games as double digit favorite, should spread creep back to 10+ points. Three of four games for both sides stayed under the total.

Dolphins (1-3) @ Bengals (3-1)—Miami lost in OT last two weeks to Jets/ Cardinals; they’re 7th team over last 5+ years to play OT games in consecutive weeks- other six teams were 1-3-1 vs spread in that next game (one team had a bye). Three teams lost back/back OT games; those three were 1-2 vs spread in that third game, with both losses by 3 points- the three games were decided by total of 10 points. Miami is 14-5 in series vs Bengals, 8-3 here, but this is rare occasion where Cincy has better squad, having won last three games, scoring 34-38-27 points (scored 11 TDs on last 32 drives). Explosive passing attack averaged 8.0/12.8/7.9 ypa in last three games. Dolphins have seven TD drives of 75+ yards in last three games, after getting shut down by Texans in opener; Miami has to cut down on turnovers (10, -5 ratio) but they have to be pleased with progress of rookie QB Taneyhill (394 PY last week). Both teams had three of four games go over the total.

Ravens (3-1) @ Chiefs (1-3)— Word of caution on what looks like low number; since 2005, Ravens are 3-10 vs spread as road favorites in non-divisional games. Flat spot for Baltimore, coming off primetime games with Pats/Browns, and with big name Cowboys/Texans on deck. Illness to Colts’ coach Pagano had to hit hard here- he was Ravens’ defensive aide for last four years (DC LY). Chiefs are off to dismal start, allowing 34 ppg- they were down 24-6 at winless Saints in their only win, before rallying for win. KC ain’t running ball for 275 yards against Raven defense.that allowed 120 yards on 51 carries in last two games (Pats/Browns). Chiefs were outscored 58-12 in first half of last three games. OC Cameron is trying to pump up Raven passing game, but they averaged only 4.9 ypa in only road game, a 24-23 loss at Philly. Teams haven’t met since Ravens whacked KC 30-7 in ’10 playoffs, their third straight series win. Both teams had three of first four games go over total.

Seahawks (2-2) @ Panthers (1-3)— Greatest moment in Seahawk history was 34-14 win over Carolina in ’05 NFC title game, but that was many moons ago. Home side won all five series games, with Seattle losing both visits here, 26-3/13-10. Hawks have sturdy defense this year, but they don’t trust rookie QB Wilson enough to win tough road games, having scored 14.5 ppg (two TDs on 22 drives) in losing first two away games 20-16/19-13. Carolina had its guts ripped out in tough 30-28 loss at Falcons last week, when Newton fumbled on game-clinching run, with ball being recovered short of first down marker; Panthers allowed 31 ppg in last three games- they’re -6 in turnovers already and allowed nine offensive TDs in last three games (seven of nine on drives of 68+ yards). Seahawks are 15-22-3 vs spread in last 40 games where spread was 3 or less points; Panthers are 8-10 in their last 18 such games. All four Seattle games stayed under total.

Bears (3-1) @ Jaguars (1-3)—Trap game for Chicago after surprisingly easy Monday night win in Dallas; their only loss was road game at Lambeau on short week; this is road game on short week, but Jags are hardly Packer-esque, scoring two offensive TDs on 21 drives in home losses to Texans (27-7), Bengals (27-10). Bears have 11 INTs in four games- they ran three of them back for TDs in last two games, and are already +7 in turnovers. Gabbert has played better on road, averaging 2.2/3.6 ypa at home, 6.1/6.7 on road. Chicago is 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine games as road favorite, 12-10-3 in last 25 vs AFC teams. Jaguars are 3-8 vs spread in last 11 games as home underdogs-- road team covered all four of their games this season. Home side won last three series games; this is Bears’ first visit here since ’04. Jags’ owner Khan is from Illinois (big Illini booster) via Pakistan. Last three Jacksonville games stayed under the total.

Titans (1-3) @ Vikings (3-1)—Hard to endorse Tennessee squad that already lost games by 26-28-24 points; in their only win, they scored three non-offensive TDs, and still needed OT to beat struggling Detroit. Titans are 3-4 as road underdogs under Munchak; they’ve had only two takeaways in four games (-6 turnover ratio). Vikings didn’t score an offensive TD last week, but used PR/KR for TDs to nip the Lions in Detroit, week after they upset 49ers here; underdogs all four of their games this season. In their last three games, Minnesota allowed only 228 rushing yards on 70 carries (3.3/carry), so could be more tough sledding for Chris Johnson. Titans had 158 yards on ground last week, after having total of 117 in first three games. Vikes are 1-4 vs spread in last five games as home favorites. Minnesota won four of last five series games, with last four decided by 10+ points; titans lost six of seven visits here, with only win 20 years ago. Last three Viking games stayed under the total.

Broncos (2-2) @ Patriots (2-2)—Belichick crushed Tebow-led Broncos twice LY, 41-23 at Mile High, 45-10 at home in playoffs, but Denver has a better QB now; Patriots lost four of last five meetings with Manning brothers, with two losses to Eli in Super Bowls. Not only that, but Pats’ OC McDaniels faces his old team for first time since they fired him as HC after ’10 season. Broncos have 12 offensive TDs on 42 drives, as Manning develops chemistry with his new WRs- they pummeled Raiders LW, outgaining them 503-237, but off big divisional win and with pre-bye tilt at San Diego up next, this might be bigger game for Patriot squad that lost its only home game to 4-0 Cardinals. Pats scored 30+ points in all three away games, but were held to one TD, five FG tries in home opener. Since 2007, NE is 15-11 vs spread as a non-divisional home favorite. Keep in mind that through four weeks, underdogs are 27-14 vs spread in non-divisional games.

Bills (2-2) @ 49ers (3-1)—Buffalo was 2-1 and up at half over Patriots last week, then they gave up 45 points in second half and now its hard to tell what to make of them, considering that high-priced pass rusher Mario Williams has touched opposing QBs three times in four games. All four Bills games were decided by 10+ points, with favorites covering all four. Buffalo’s losses by 48-28/52-28 scores. Since ’05, Bills are 12-16-2 vs spread as non-divisional road dogs. Niners bounced back from loss at Metrodome by crushing dysfunctional Jets 34-0 in Swamp; 49ers’ other two wins this year are by 8 points each- they’re 8-0 as home favorites under Harbaugh, 9-4-1 vs spread in game following a win. Three of four Buffalo games went over total; last three 49er games stayed under. Niners were +28 in turnovers LY, then even in first three games this year, before +4 last week got them back on track. Since ’05, Buffalo is 10-15-3 vs spread when facing an NFC squad.

Chargers (3-1) @ Saints (0-4)—Impossible to endorse Saints as favorites here, even though Sean Payton/Mickey Loomis are attending game at request of Drew Brees, who opposes his former team here; winless Saints don’t defend well, allowing 32.5 ppg (13 TDs, 10 FGA on 45 drives)- their last two losses were by total of 4 points, but they also blew a 24-6 lead at home to 1-3 Chiefs, giving up 273 rushing yards to KC. San Diego had six takeaways (+6) LW after having total of three in first three games, but they’ve only gained 300+ TY in one game so far. Bolts are 7-3 in series, winning all four games played here; last time teams met Saints won 37-32 in London in ’08. Since 2004, San Diego is 16-8-4 as road underdogs (1-4 LY). Three of four Charger games stayed under; three of four Saint games went over total. This is one of only two games Chargers will play on artificial turf this season; other one is Week 16 at Jets.


Monday' game
Texans (4-0) @ Jets (2-2)—NY-area panic mongers have Jets dead in water after pair of losses that surrounded less-than-stellar OT win in Miami and season-ending injury to defensive ace Revis, but fact is they’re tied for first in division and facing team they’re 5-0 against, with three of five wins by 15+ points. Now would be good time for Jets to reveal grand plan as to why Tebow was brought to Swamp—he hasn’t been much of factor thus far, and team has completed just 44.1% of passes in last three games (team has 2 TDs on last 33 drives). Houston is on road for third time in last four weeks; they’ve won in Denver and outsacked opponents 13-3 this year- they had two defensive scores last week and already have four TD drives of less than 50 yards. Texans convert 45.2% (28-62) on 3rd down and are +7 in turnovers, throwing just one pick in four games. Desperate home dogs have long been solid value of Monday nights, but in this case, it takes leap of faith on Sanchez’ Jets.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27290 Followers:33
10/07/2012 12:40 AM

NFL

Sunday, October 7

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Broncos at Patriots: What bettors need to know
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Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (-6.5, 52)

Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, two of the most iconic quarterbacks in NFL history, will meet for the 13th time when the New England Patriots host the Denver Broncos on Sunday. Brady is 8-4 head-to-head against Manning - all during Manning's 14 seasons with Indianapolis. Manning, who is fourth all-time with 143 wins, and Brady (fifth, 126) did what they do best last week - lead their teams to resounding victories. The Patriots erased a 14-point deficit and scored 45 points in the second half en route to a 52-28 win at Buffalo, while the Broncos crushed Oakland 37-6 as Manning excelled in his first taste of the bitter rivalry.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Patriots -6.5, O/U 52.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-50s and a 80 percent chance of rain. Winds will be light out of the west.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2-2): Denver has already faced three playoff teams from 2011, including two of the three undefeated teams this season (Houston, Atlanta) - and now takes on the defending AFC champion. If the Broncos are to stop the No. 1 offense at 438.3 yards per game, they must get huge performances from pass-rushing specialists Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller and cornerbacks Champ Bailey and Tracy Porter. Denver's chances will also be enhanced if its offensive balance continues. Running back Willis McGahee, who leads active players in 100-yard rushing games with 32, had 112 last week and Manning threw for 338 yards, including touchdowns to a tight end, a wide receiver and a running back.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (2-2): New England last week became the first team in NFL history with a 300-yard passer (Brady), two 100-yard rushers (Brandon Bolden, Stevan Ridley) and a pair of 100-yard receivers (Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski) - but the No. 1 offense at 33.5 points per game will face a stiffer challenge in the NFL's No. 7 defense. The Patriots beat the Broncos twice last season - 41-23 in Denver during the regular season and 45-10 in the AFC divisional playoffs - as Brady threw 10 touchdowns against only one interception in those games. New England's defense has six interceptions and five fumble recoveries; the Patriots are second in the NFL with a plus-8 turnover margin. Brady is 2-5 against Denver in the regular season and 1-1 in the postseason, the only team against which he has a losing record.

TRENDS:

* The favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Over is 9-4-1 in their last 14 meetings.
* Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win of more than 14 points.
* Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. This is the second time in NFL history two QBs with 125-plus victories will meet. Denver and John Elway (148) played Miami and Dan Marino (147) in 1998. Brett Favre is the all-time leader with 186 victories.

2. The Patriots and Broncos both must buck the odds to make the playoffs: Teams that start 2-2 have made the postseason only 35.3 percent of the time since the NFL expanded to 12 playoff teams in 1990.

3. All-Pro TE Gronkowski (hip) did not practice Wednesday, but was questionable when he had five catches for 104 yards and a touchdown against Buffalo.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27290 Followers:33
10/07/2012 11:26 AM

Buffalo Bills Trek West To Face San Francisco 49ers

The ebbs and flows of the NFL season are inevitable. Ups and downs are part of life for almost every NFL team.

The Buffalo Bills (2-2) and San Francisco 49ers (3-1) have not been immune from those sorts of vicissitudes in the first month of the 2012 NFL campaign. Last week, however, both began to resemble the teams many were expecting to see this season.

Which was not good news for the Bills, but a pretty good deal for the 49ers.

We’ll see if last week’s pattern continues on Sunday when Buffalo makes the long trek to the Bay Area. A late week check of the Don Best Pro Odds notes that host San Francisco is a 9½-10 point favorite at almost all Las Vegas sports books, with the total mostly at 44½ shaded to the ‘under.’

Kickoff at Candlestick Park will be at 4:25 p.m. (ET), with CBS providing the TV coverage. Kevin Harlan and Solomon Wilcots will be on hand to describe the action.

Buffalo certainly hopes last week’s 52-28 loss at Orchard Park to New England doesn’t linger. For the Bills’ sake it had better not, because after this trip to Candlestick, Buffalo has road games at Arizona and New England, plus a home game vs. unbeaten Houston, in three of its next four games. The Bills have their “bye” week on October 28, after hosting Tennessee, but it’s safe to say that the next month is extremely critical for the Bills...and the future of head coach Chan Gailey.

The loss to the Patriots was disturbing on a variety of fronts, not the least of which was allowing 45 points in the second half (and 31 in a 4th-Q meltdown) after assuming a 21-7 lead early in the third quarter. Along the way the Bills allowed a whopping 247 yards on the ground. Moreover, injury problems became a concern last week, and Buffalo likely plugs in a pair of new OL starters at Candlestick after LT Cordy Glenn and RG Kraig Urbik went down with ankle injuries against the Pats.

Perhaps the most alarming development last week was the regression of QB Ryan Fitzpatrick into the mistake-prone mess who struggled down the stretch last season when tossing an NFL-worst 23 picks. Fitzpatrick, who had not thrown an interception in his previous two starts after tossing three in the opening loss to the Jets, was guilty of four picks against New England.

The Bills were also held to a season-low 98 yards rushing against Bill Belichick’s defense, and top backs Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller, both of whom having missed action due to injury this season, were each guilty of fumbles against New England.

For Buffalo to succeed, and for Fitzpatrick to avoid disaster, the Bills have to be able to run the ball effectively, and Fitzpatrick has to begin finding top wideout Steve Johnson downfield a bit more often.

All easier said than done, however, especially against the gnarly 49ers, who bounced back from their shock loss at Minnesota to throttle the overrated Jets, 34-0, last week at the Meadowlands’ MetLife Stadium.

The tale of that one-sided romp could be found in the rushing statistics, which reflected the sort of physical domination that head coach Jim Harbaugh stresses. San Francisco pounded for 245 yards rushing while conceding only 45 yards on 17 carries to the helpless Jet runners.

Given the maddening inconsistency of the Buffalo defensive front, and its shortcomings that were exposed last week vs. the Patriots, the scenario is a potentially-frightening one for the Buffalo defense this week.

Another concern for the Bills this week is that Harbaugh has developed a package of plays for 2nd-year backup QB Colin Kaepernick, the long-striding Nevada grad who was also a 1,000-yard-rusher in multiple seasons for the Wolf Pack. Kaepernick, used in “Wild Kap” looks, gained 50 yards on four carries last week vs. the Jets, but can also put the ball in the air, creating an extra concern for opposing defenses.

If there are some concerns for Harbaugh’s offense, it’s that QB Alex Smith has yet to detonate the big-play element the 49ers thought they were adding to their strike force in the offseason when acquiring the likes of WRs Mario Manningham, Randy Moss and rookie A.J. Jenkins, plus rookie RB LaMichael James from Oregon.

But it’s not been all that bad for Smith, who continues to manage games effectively and avoid mistakes (he has only one pick in four games). As long as Smith plays within himself, Harbaugh is unlikely to contemplate any QB change, and will be using Kaepernick only on occasion in a change-of-pace role. Moreover, the “O” could regain the services of beastly RB Brandon Jacobs, the ex-Giant banger who has been out with a knee injury sicne the second week of preseason.

Meanwhile, Vic Fangio’s 49er stop unit allowed only 145 yards of total offense to the Jets and ranks third overall in the league, allowing just 277 ypg. San Francisco, however, is not forcing TOs at the rate it did last season when finishing with an NFL-best +28 TO margin. The 49ers have forced only seven giveaways in four weeks and stand +3 in TO margin entering October.

Of course, what remains noteworthy about the Niners is their pointspread prowess, as they’re now 15-6-1 vs. the number since Harbaugh’s arrival last season. Included is a 9-1-1 home spread mark at Candlestick.

As for the Bills, they’re just 2-5 vs. the line their last seven on the road, and are also ‘over’ 9-4 their last 13 away from home.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27290 Followers:33
10/07/2012 11:29 AM

Eagles Visit Steelers In Battle Of Pennsylvania

The Philadelphia Eagles aren’t leaving a lot of margin for error in their wins this season. They visit a suddenly healthier Pittsburgh Steelers team on Sunday in the Battle of Pennsylvania.

The Don Best Pro Odds have Philadelphia as 3-3½-point underdogs with a total of 44. FOX has the broadcast rights to this interconference affair and will get underway from Heinz Field at 1:00 p.m. (ET).

The Eagles (3-1 straight up, 0-3-1 against the spread) are playing as an underdog for the first time this season. Their three wins have come by a grand total of four points, with the latest 19-17 at home on Sunday night over the division rival Giants. That ‘pushed’ the 2-point spread.

Quarterback Michael Vick led the game-winning field goal drive in the fourth quarter and was 19-of-30 (63.3 percent) for 241 yards. More importantly, he was turnover free after having six picks and three lost fumbles in the first three games. Vick suffered a knee contusion, but is listed as probable.

LeSean McCoy (384 yards) is second in the NFL in rushing. He’s also probable with a knee tweak after rushing for 123 yards last week. Only two of those came in the first half (on six carries) and Philly needs to get him going early against a Pittsburgh run defense that is allowing a mediocre 101 YPG (tied-for-14th).

Coach Andy Reid is worried about an emotional letdown after the Giants and his team has also struggled on the road (0-2 ATS). The Eagles needed a touchdown with 1:18 left to beat Cleveland, 17-16 as 9-point favorites in Week 1. The game at Arizona two weeks ago was a terrible performance (27-6 loss as 3-point favorites).

Both of those road games easily went ‘under’ the total with the offense struggling bad.

The Steelers (1-2 SU and ATS) were one of two teams to have a bye in Week 4 and are still smarting from their stunning 34-31 Week 3 loss at Oakland as 3½-point favorites. They certainly can’t afford to fall to 1-3.

Coach Mike Tomlin’s guys at least had time to rest and get healthy. Running back Rashard Mendenhall (knee) and linebacker James Harrison (knee) are probable to play their first games this season. Safety Troy Polamalu (calf) should suit up after missing the last two contests.

The addition of Harrison and Polamalu will be a huge benefit long-term, but defenses do sometimes struggle in the first game with injured players back, even when they are All-Pros.

The expected return of Mendenhall could provide more immediate dividends with the rushing game averaging 65 YPG (ranked 31st) and a league-worst 2.6 yards per carry. Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman will still get carries, but won’t be burdened with leading the attack.

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has the NFL’s second-best quarterback rating despite learning new coordinator Todd Haley’s system. He’s been sacked nine times in three games and a better running attack will slow the pass rush down and provide better balance.

The Steelers have one of the best home field advantages in football. The Jets were the first victim at Heinz Field this year, a 27-10 Steelers victory as 4½-point favorites. The ‘under’ is 4-0 in their last four home games dating back to last year, allowing a miniscule 5.0 PPG.

These teams only meet every four years in the regular season. The home team won and covered the last two with the ‘under’ going 2-0.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27290 Followers:33
10/07/2012 11:32 AM

Seahawks Fly Cross-Country For Clash With Cam, Carolina

Among the many surprises in the first month of the 2012 NFL season is an apparent power shift in the NFC to the Western Division, which is both good and bad news for the Seattle Seahawks (2-2), who appear to be part of the renaissance.

For the Carolina Panthers (1-3)? Regarding good and bad, it’s been mostly the latter the first four weeks of the season.

Regardless, as the calendar moves into October, both the Seahawks and Panthers appear to be fast approaching forks in the road for the 2012 campaign. Developments elsewhere in their respective divisions suggest that each are going to need to accelerate their pace in the next few weeks, or playoff hopes could be dashed before Halloween.

Thus, there’s a bit of urgency attached to Sunday’s clash between the sides at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte. A quick midweek check of the Don Best NFL odds screen notes that host Carolina is a 3-point favorite at practically every Las Vegas sports book, with the total at 43½-44 and shaded to the ‘under.'

Kickoff time on Sunday will be later in the afternoon at 4:05 p.m. (ET), with FOX providing the TV coverage. Chris Myers, Tim Ryan and Jamie Maggio will provide the commentary.

Seattle has provided interesting copy for a variety of reasons this season. The new-look uniforms, featuring florescent green highlights and a new “wolf grey” color, have caused a stir (mostly positive). Then there was the wild Monday night game vs. Green Bay two weeks ago that proved the impetus for the NFL to settle its contract dispute with the referees. Along the way, the defense has emerged as one of the best. Competition in the NFC West has also upgraded, as the Seahawks, despite posting home wins over the Cowboys and Packers, have already lost on the road to improve division rivals Arizona and St. Louis.

But now there is some real concern about an offense that has been mostly stumbling the past few weeks. Wisconsin rookie QB Russell Wilson is being contained within the pocket, and the passing game has become mistake-prone. Only once in three weeks have the Seahawks exceeded 16 points.

Some observers are blaming ultra-conservative play-calling from offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell for making things harder on Wilson, who has been hampered by limiting most of his throws to obvious passing downs. Many Seahawks fans are suggesting that Bevell and head coach Pete Carroll might as well opt for veteran QB Matt Flynn, the ex-Packer who was signed to a big-money free-agent contract in the offseason, if they’re going to be running such a bulletproof offense for Wilson.

If nothing else, Flynn is a viable default option in the Seahawks’ version of the West Coast offense. Still, there is concern about a wide receiving corps that has also had its problems gaining separation and remains a question mark. There was a reason Carroll was willing to gamble on taking a look at Terrell Owens in the preseason, as Seattle still lacks a legit downfield receiving threat.

And as good as the Seahawks’ defense has been, the team is not going to make the playoffs unless the offense begins to contribute more consistently. At the moment, Wilson – guilty of three picks last week in a 19-13 loss to the Rams in St. Louis – is simply not providing the necessary spark on the attack end. Stay tuned for further developments.

Defense, however, continues to key Seattle, whose airtight stop unit has also not allowed more than 20 points in a game this season. In particular, the Seahawks have been able to stuff opposing run games, as foes are gaining only a puny 3 yards per carry against the stout Seattle rush defense. Seattle also has 12 sacks through the first four weeks, including five from DE Chris Clemons.

Those developments against the run and rushing the passer should be of real concern to a Carolina offense that has also moved in fits and spurts this campaign and needs to establish its infantry diversion to give QB Cam Newton his best chance of igniting the Panther attack.

But we saw a couple of weeks ago against the Giants (as well as the opener vs. the Bucs) what can happen to Carolina’s “O” when the running game is stuffed at the line of scrimmage and when Newton’s escape routes out of the pocket are clogged. Cam has also been prone to pouting spells (prompting an upbraiding by vert WR Steve Smith in the Giants game) as his performances to date, which include just four TD passes and five picks, suggest a possible “sophomore slump” for the ex-Auburn Heisman trophy winner.

What success foes have experienced on the ground vs. the Seahawks thus far have been on draws and inside trap runs, taking advantage of the aggressive push by the Seattle defensive front. Expect the Panthers to isolate RBs DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart (if healthy for the latter) in such situations on Sunday.

On the plus side for the Panthers has been an improvement from their own pass rush which was a point of emphasis in the offseason. They’ve upgraded in that area, recording 12 sacks thus far, with Oklahoma rookie DE Frank Alexander emerging as a contributor. Although they’re also allowing 31 ppg over their last three games.

But the Panthers’ psyche (and that of Newton) has appeared a bit fragile this season, and we wonder how the team reacts to blowing a late lead last week at Atlanta, when the Falcons drove from their own one-yard line to a game-winning field goal in the last minute. With a bye week on deck, Carolina needs to develop some momentum in a hurry, or else it will be hitting late October with only one win, and its playoff hopes all but dashed.

Pointspread-wise, there are some Seahawks trends worth noting, especially recent successes as an underdog (8-1 vs. spread last nine receiving points) and an overall 13-5 mark against the number in their last 18 games on the board since early last season. The Seattle defense and the offense’s recent struggles behind Wilson have also combined for a potent ‘under’ recipe, as Seattle is ‘under’ in its first four games this season.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27290 Followers:33
10/07/2012 11:34 AM

Patriots Renew Rivalry With Peyton Manning, Broncos

The New England Patriots face an old foe on Sunday in quarterback Peyton Manning, this time as a member of the Denver Broncos.

The Don Best Pro Odds screen opened New England as 6½-point favorites, but it’s now moved up to -7 at some wagering outlets. The total is a healthy 51½ and CBS will have the late afternoon broadcast from Gillette Stadium at 4:25 p.m. (ET).

New England (2-2 straight up, 3-1 against the spread) has had a tough start and is already chasing elite teams like Houston (4-0) and Baltimore (3-1) in the AFC. The Ravens already own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Patriots after beating them at home (31-30) two weeks ago in a thriller.

Despite the Patriots’ .500 record, the Don Best Linemakers Poll still ranks them second in the AFC (100.1 rating) behind Houston. Denver (97.4) is fifth in the conference.

Coach Bill Belichick’s team is fortunate to be 2-2 after a mammoth comeback at Buffalo last week. Trailing 21-7 in the fourth quarter, Tom Brady and company scored 35 unanswered points in less than 13 minutes (52-28 final).

Brady threw for 340 yards and three TDS, but the bigger news was the 247 team rushing yards. Stevan Ridley has looked very good overall in his second year, but it was undrafted free agent Brandon Bolden who burst onto the scene with 137 yards on 16 carries.

With the running game going, New England can really click offensively with the middle of the field open for Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski. Denver’s defense ranks seventh in the league in total yards (308 YPG), but is certainly vulnerable this week on the road.

The Patriots home crowd will be demanding a good performance this week. The only home game so far was a shocking 20-18 loss to Arizona as 13-point favorites in Week 2. The team went 9-1 SU (5-5 ATS) at Gillette last year including the playoffs.

The Broncos (2-2 SU and ATS) are coming off a much-needed 37-6 home win over Oakland as 6½-point favorites. Manning (96.9 rating, ranked 10th) has been up-and-down this season after signing as a free agent and coming off neck surgery. He was great last Sunday (30-of-38 for 338 yards, three TDS) with the porous and injured Raiders ‘D’ a reason.

Running back Willis McGahee also shook off a ribs injury to rush for 112 yards on 19 carries. He is important to take the pressure off Manning, especially against better defenses.

The 36-year-old Manning had had success against Belichick’s defense the last few meetings while playing for Indy. Look for him to attack the middle of the field against the Pats suspect safety tandem of Patrick Chung and Steven Gregory (questionable, hip).

New England’s defense is improved some at 366.8 YPG (ranked 20th), but is still very young and susceptible to the big play. Rookie Dont’a Hightower (hamstring) is questionable, and his absence would be a big blow to an already thin linebacker core.

An interesting development is that Denver center J.D. Walton (ankle) is on injured reserve, which means longtime former Patriot Dan Koppen will start.

These teams met in the Divisional Playoff round last year. New England absolutely pasted the Broncos at home 45-10, but that was with Tim Tebow at quarterback. It won’t be nearly as easy against Manning.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: