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10/25/2012 07:20 PM
NFL

Week 8

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Tale of the tape: Buccaneers at Vikings
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The Bucs roll into Minnesota for what promises to be a physical affair against the Vikings in this week's installment of Thursday Night Football. Take a look at how this matchup breaks down in all three facets of the game with our tale of the tape:

Offense

The Bucs offense has exploded over the last two weeks, putting up a combined 66 points against the Chiefs and Saints. Of course, both of those performances came at home and at the expense of two struggling defenses. They'll face a much stiffer test on the road against a stout Vikings defense Thursday night. Bucs QB Josh Freeman has thrown six touchdown passes over the last two games while rookie RB Doug Martin found the end zone for only the second time this season against New Orleans last week. Offseason acquisition Vincent Jackson has been the star of the offense, hauling in four touchdown catches over the last three weeks.

Minnesota's offense relied heavily on RB Adrian Peterson last Sunday, as QB Christian Ponder was only able to complete 47 percent of his passes for a miserable 58 yards. The sophomore pivot has now thrown exactly two interceptions in three consecutive games. To make matters worse, he's nursing a sore knee heading into this contest. But can an already conservative offense really be scaled back all that much? It won't be a surprise if Peterson remains the focal point of the offense Thursday, as the issues in the Vikes’ passing game aren't likely to be fixed in a short week.

Edge: Tampa Bay


Defense

Tampa Bay has alternated good and bad performances on the defensive side of the football this season. So, after giving up 35 points in a losing effort last Sunday, one would assume it would bring its “A” game Thursday night. The Bucs are giving up an ugly 6.3 yards per play on the season and have really struggled against the pass, allowing nearly 13 yards per completion. Corner Aqib Talib's suspension has left a gaping hole in the secondary and his absence was certainly felt last Sunday, as the Bucs were ripped for 377 yards and four touchdowns against Drew Brees and the Saints. They'll need their pass rush to relieve the pressure on the secondary this week.

The strength of the Vikings defense remains up front, as they come into this game averaging over three sacks per contest. Their explosive pass rush has helped limit opposing offenses to a weak 5.9 yards per pass attempt. Last Sunday, the Vikes forced a pair of key turnovers against the Cardinals, including an interception they took to the house - ultimately proving to be the difference in the 21-14 victory. They're giving up just a shade over 14 points per game at the Metrodome, where they're a perfect 3-0 SU on the season.

Edge: Minnesota


Special teams

Tampa Bay's return game has struggled for the most part, averaging only 6.5 yards per punt return and 20.1 yards on kickoffs. Without a proven return man (Arrelious Benn and Roscoe Parrish have been sharing the duties), that shouldn't come as a surprise. The Bucs have been terrific at holding opposing returners in check, giving up just slightly north of 21 yards per kickoff return, but will face a big challenge in the form of the electric Percy Harvin Thursday. Tampa Bay kicker Connor Barth has been steady since entering the league and has made good on 10 of his 12 field goal attempts so far this season.

The Vikings are a load to handle on special teams with speedsters Percy Harvin and Marcus Sherels capable of taking it to the house every time they touch the football. They're currently gaining well above the league average at 12.3 yards per punt return and 29.9 yards per kickoff return. On the flip side, they've had a tough time defending kickoffs in particular, allowing 31.7 yards per return. Rookie kicker Blair Walsh has been terrific for the Vikes, converting 16 of 17 field goal attempts. They also boast a quality, veteran punter in Chris Kluwe.

Edge: Minnesota


Word on the street

"Again, we're sitting here, what are we, 2-4 now? And we're saying this old song and dance. That's the way it is. Until we get it changed, until we find a way to change it, close but no cigar." - Bucs head coach Greg Schiano on the frustration of dropping another close game against the Saints last Sunday.

"That's what we want to pride ourselves on, being the toughest team, the most physical team. We were able to come out today and do that, we just have to keep doing that going forward." - Vikings DE Brian Robison speaking about the seven sacks they recorded against the Cardinals last Sunday.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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10/25/2012 07:23 PM
NFL

Thursday, October 25

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Tampa Bay - 8:20 PM ET Tampa Bay +5.5 500

Minnesota - Under 43 500
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10/27/2012 09:40 PM
Falcons In Philadelphia To Face Struggling Eagles

The storm signals have been building in Philadelphia since the offseason. All it took was another loss in gut-wrenching fashion in the Eagles’ most-recent game against the Lions for the first cloudburst of what could be more to come in the Delaware Valley.

Meanwhile, Atlanta continues to bop along in undefeated fashion. Conversations among patrons over chili and slaw dogs at the downtown location of The Varsity (one of our favorite eateries) has even swung from the Bulldogs and Yellow Jackets on the college side to the NFL as “Falcons Mania” grips the Showcase City of the South.

So, it’s a tale of two teams and franchises apparently headed in opposite directions when they clash on Sunday at Lincoln Financial Field.

A quick check of the Don Best NFL odds screen notes that despite positions in the standings, host Philadelphia (3-3 straight up, 1-5 vs. the line) is priced as a 2½-point favorite over Atlanta (6-0 straight up, 4-2 against the number) at the majority of Las Vegas sports books, while the total is at 45 shaded to the ‘under’ (with a handful of stray 45½s) at most Nevada wagering outlets.

Kickoff time on Sunday at the Linc will be at 1:00 p.m. (ET), with big FOX providing the TV coverage. Dick Stockton and John Lynch will provide the commentary.

Despite Atlanta’s undefeated mark, more eyes are probably going to be on the Eagles this week as both sides get back to action after their respective “byes” a week ago. While it was an uneventful week for the Falcons, it was anything but in Philadelphia...for reasons we noted in our summer NFC previews.

At the time, we and many other suspected Eagles head coach Andy Reid was operating under the gun this season, and for good reason after last year’s 8-8 disappointment. Owner Jeffrey Lurie had even put Reid on notice that his job depended upon performance this season. To show he meant business, Lurie pushed aside team president Joe Banner (who landed with the Browns), a longtime confidante of Reid’s.

Most observers, us included, also suspected that second-year defensive coordinator Juan Castillo was going to be on a very short leash this fall. After all, the “D” mostly underachieved a year ago. And the stop unit was the focus in the offseason, especially during the draft when the Eagles went "D" with their first three picks. NFC East insiders also noted that Reid made inquiries regarding the availability of former Rams HC and Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo about assuming control of the Bird stop unit before committing to Castillo for another campaign.

But Reid put in place a backup plan involving new DB coach Todd Bowles, who held the same post at Miami a year ago and was even the Dolphins' interim head coach last December after Tony Sparano was jettisoned with a few games to go in the season. With so much on the line for all parties this fall, some sources believe another slow start by the defense might force Reid to move Bowles into the coordinator role and demote Castillo. Which is exactly what happened after the October 14 loss to the Lions, when Philly blew a late 23-13 lead and ended up a 26-23 loser in overtime.

Of particular disappointment was the lack of impact made by the Eagles’ defensive front, which put DL coach Jim Washburn’s patented “wide nine” looks to good use last fall when registering 50 sacks. But opposing attacks made adjustments to Philly’s defensive front this season, and the Eagles had failed to generate a consistent pass rush, not registering any sacks over the past three games. The “bye” week thus provided Reid the perfect opportunity to make a staff change, relieving Castillo of duties and promoting Bowles.

Now, phone lines on 610 WIP are buzzing about who is next on the chopping block. Quarterback Michael Vick is a popular choice among the Eagle fanatics, with Reid himself close behind.

Indeed, since Reid appears unwilling to sit back and watch the team underachieve, it is fair to assume that Vick’s job is on the line as well, especially since he has been so mistake-prone (8 picks and 10 fumbles, losing five of the latter) in the first six games. Sources say Vick could be one more shaky start away from getting the hook, with Reid said to be close to giving Arizona rookie Nick Foles (who impressed in preseason) the reins to the struggling offense.

The Eagles are also defining low-variance this season, with five of their six games decided by three points or fewer. The combined win margin in Philly’s three wins is an astonishing four points.

Meanwhile, Mike Smith’s Atlanta is having fewer concerns, although he hopes last week’s “bye” can help the Falcons correct some flaws that have forced them to sweat out recent wins over the Panthers, Redskins and Raiders. Mostly, those issues involve a running game that has been in a lurch in recent weeks, as Atlanta is gaining only 3.7 yards per carry. Moreover, the defense is allowing 5.2 yards per rush, hardly the sort of numbers that figure to keep the Falcons unbeaten as the 2012 campaign enters its second half.

For the time being, however, the excellence of QB Matt Ryan, and his ability to pull wins out of the fire in the late-going – game-saving drives to last-second Matt Bryant field goals saved the recent wins over Carolina and Oakland – has kept Atlanta unblemished. The variety of top-flight receiving targets, especially with vet TE Tony Gonzalez (team-best 43 catches) showing no signs of slowing down, and wideouts Roddy White and Julio Jones stretch enemy secondaries, figures to test the Eagle pass defense.

Bowles is going to have to worry about how CB Nnamdi Asomugha is going to deal with Jones, his expected assignment, after several blown assignments have resulted in big plays against the Philly defense thus far.

Technically, it is no surprise that the underdog team has covered in each of the first six games for the low-variance Eagles; Philly, favored in all but its 16-14 loss at Pittsburgh on October 7, is 1-5 vs. the line. Totals trends are also shading to the ‘under’ for both (Falcons ‘under’ 5-2 their last seven since late 2011, Eagles ‘under’ 10-4 last 14 since mid 2011).

Atlanta also won an early-season battle a year ago at the Georgia Dome by a 35-31 count, before each team began its respective ‘under’ trending.
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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10/27/2012 09:43 PM
Dallas Cowboys & New York Giants Meet Again

Fierce NFC East rivals, the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants, play their second and final regular season meeting Sunday in Big D.

The Don Best Pro Odds opened the Cowboys as 1½-point home favorites, but it was quickly bet around and they’re now 1½-2 point ‘dogs. The total is 47½-points and FOX will have this ratings buster starting at 4:25 p.m. (ET).

These teams opened the NFL season on Wednesday, September 5. Dallas was a 3½-point ‘dog at the defending champs, but won 24-17 after winning the total yardage battle 433-269. Quarterback Tony Romo (307 yards, three TDs) outplayed his counterpart Eli Manning (213 yards).

The 41 combined points scored went ‘under’ the 45½-point total. The ‘under’ is 2-0 in the last two meetings between the teams after the ‘over’ was 5-0 in the previous five.

The Cowboys (3-3 straight up, 3-3 against the spread) may have peaked in that Giants game as not a lot has gone right since. They did pull out a victory at struggling Carolina last week, 19-14 as 1-point favorites, but the offense has trouble putting up points (18.8 PPG, tied-for-24th) despite being 10th in total yards (374.8 YPG).

The running game is a concern Sunday with DeMarco Murray (foot) doubtful after missing last game. Felix Jones was the main guy, but rushed for just 44 yards on 15 carries and is questionable with a knee injury.

That puts a lot of pressure on Romo. He didn’t throw an interception for the first time this season last game, but it’s hard to imagine that happening again versus the imposing Giants pass rush.

Dallas’ defense ranks fourth in total yards allowed (292.3 YPG), but just got devastating news with leading tackler Sean Lee (toe) out for the season. He has 58 tackles with the next closest at 32, and the Giants will try to run the ball at replacement Dan Connor.

Note the Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their last five at home (0-2 ATS this year). They beat Tampa Bay (16-10 as 9-point favorites) before getting embarrassed by Chicago (34-18 loss) on MNF. Romo had five picks in that Bears game, which is the last time the home crowd saw him.

The Giants (5-2 SU, 3-3-1 ATS) have won five of six since the Dallas opener, although they haven’t always been pretty. Last week’s home game against Washington is the perfect example. The G-Men were outgained 248-64 on the ground with the scrambling of Robert Griffin III a big factor, but Manning threw a 77-yard TD pass to Victor Cruz with under 1:30 remaining.

The sterling 27-23 victory failed to cover the 6½-point spread and also went just ‘under’ the 51½-point total. The ‘under’ is 4-1 in the Giants last five games, 3-0 away this year.

Manning can throw on any team and has been better on the road (94.5 rating). Receiver Hakeem Nicks keeps rounding into form after injuries and could have a breakout game. That will take pressure off the sensational Cruz.

Ahmad Bradshaw has been dealing with a foot issue and was held to 43 yards last week after an average of 158 the prior two. As mentioned above, the G-Men will really test the Dallas run ‘D’ and Bradshaw is a big part of that.

New York has been a great road team since last December, going 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS (including the Super Bowl). The numbers this year are 2-1 SU and 2-0-1 ATS with the outright loss at Philadelphia (19-17) on September 30.
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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10/27/2012 09:43 PM
Dallas Cowboys & New York Giants Meet Again

Fierce NFC East rivals, the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants, play their second and final regular season meeting Sunday in Big D.

The Don Best Pro Odds opened the Cowboys as 1½-point home favorites, but it was quickly bet around and they’re now 1½-2 point ‘dogs. The total is 47½-points and FOX will have this ratings buster starting at 4:25 p.m. (ET).

These teams opened the NFL season on Wednesday, September 5. Dallas was a 3½-point ‘dog at the defending champs, but won 24-17 after winning the total yardage battle 433-269. Quarterback Tony Romo (307 yards, three TDs) outplayed his counterpart Eli Manning (213 yards).

The 41 combined points scored went ‘under’ the 45½-point total. The ‘under’ is 2-0 in the last two meetings between the teams after the ‘over’ was 5-0 in the previous five.

The Cowboys (3-3 straight up, 3-3 against the spread) may have peaked in that Giants game as not a lot has gone right since. They did pull out a victory at struggling Carolina last week, 19-14 as 1-point favorites, but the offense has trouble putting up points (18.8 PPG, tied-for-24th) despite being 10th in total yards (374.8 YPG).

The running game is a concern Sunday with DeMarco Murray (foot) doubtful after missing last game. Felix Jones was the main guy, but rushed for just 44 yards on 15 carries and is questionable with a knee injury.

That puts a lot of pressure on Romo. He didn’t throw an interception for the first time this season last game, but it’s hard to imagine that happening again versus the imposing Giants pass rush.

Dallas’ defense ranks fourth in total yards allowed (292.3 YPG), but just got devastating news with leading tackler Sean Lee (toe) out for the season. He has 58 tackles with the next closest at 32, and the Giants will try to run the ball at replacement Dan Connor.

Note the Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their last five at home (0-2 ATS this year). They beat Tampa Bay (16-10 as 9-point favorites) before getting embarrassed by Chicago (34-18 loss) on MNF. Romo had five picks in that Bears game, which is the last time the home crowd saw him.

The Giants (5-2 SU, 3-3-1 ATS) have won five of six since the Dallas opener, although they haven’t always been pretty. Last week’s home game against Washington is the perfect example. The G-Men were outgained 248-64 on the ground with the scrambling of Robert Griffin III a big factor, but Manning threw a 77-yard TD pass to Victor Cruz with under 1:30 remaining.

The sterling 27-23 victory failed to cover the 6½-point spread and also went just ‘under’ the 51½-point total. The ‘under’ is 4-1 in the Giants last five games, 3-0 away this year.

Manning can throw on any team and has been better on the road (94.5 rating). Receiver Hakeem Nicks keeps rounding into form after injuries and could have a breakout game. That will take pressure off the sensational Cruz.

Ahmad Bradshaw has been dealing with a foot issue and was held to 43 yards last week after an average of 158 the prior two. As mentioned above, the G-Men will really test the Dallas run ‘D’ and Bradshaw is a big part of that.

New York has been a great road team since last December, going 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS (including the Super Bowl). The numbers this year are 2-1 SU and 2-0-1 ATS with the outright loss at Philadelphia (19-17) on September 30.
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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10/27/2012 09:46 PM
Vegas Money Moves - Week 8

October 26, 2012

It looks like we’re going to have a barn burner on Sunday night when the New Orleans Saints visit the Denver Broncos, where Las Vegas sports books have posted the total at 55 ½ -- the highest number of Week 8 and the season. A lot of times when we see high totals on these type of games, the game doesn’t live up to expectations, but it’s hard to imagine this one not giving us a video game type of offensive production.
If the league’s worst defense of the Saints, allowing just over 30 points per game, doesn’t give a valid reason to believe the pace of this game will be fast, then maybe the offensive production of the two starting quarterbacks will. Only five quarterbacks in NFL history have averaged over 250 yards per game over their career, and Drew Brees and Peyton Manning are No. 1 and 2, respectively.

On the season, the Saints have averaged 29.3 points per game while Broncos have averaged 28.3. For the Saints, no team has been able to slow their offense down. Their problem -- the reason they started out 0-4 -- is that they can’t stop anyone. However, in their past two games, the Saints have had better defensive production and they get good news this week as Joe Vitt returns to the sideline as interim head coach after serving a six-game suspension for his role in the “Bounty-Gate” scandal.

This year’s version of the Broncos has improved every week as Manning and his core of offensive players are finally getting on the same page with one another. Their three losses on the season have come against Top-5 rated teams in the league -- Atlanta, Houston and New England. Yet, in each of those losses, defenses still had a tough time stopping Manning in the second half.

The Broncos seem to go to extreme highs and lows offensively during their games, with the lows usually being in the first quarter. Before their bye week, they took the extremes to new heights as they gave the Chargers a 24-0 halftime lead before rolling out a 35-0 second half. Ironically, it was a week earlier where the Saints were down at the half to San Diego and used a 17-7 second half run to win 31-24.

The Broncos opened as 4 ½-point favorites last Sunday night and bettors perceived the number offering some value and ran it up to 6 ½ in just over an hour. On Monday morning, Saints money finally found its way to the book and pushed the number down to 6, where it’s remained all week. The total opened 54 ½ Monday and was bet up to 55 ½ by Tuesday morning.

Here’s a look at some of the other line movements in Las Vegas from this week:

The Patriots and Rams meet in London for the sixth regular season game to be played across the pond. Our brand of football has people excited in London just because it‘s something different for them, but the top match of the day in the city will be across town when proper football is played at Stamford Bridge between Manchester United and Chelsea.

This will be the second time the Patriots have played in England, and the locals have to be wondering why the NFL would send a team with name like the “Patriots” over so much. It’s like an American winning at Wimbledon on the Fourth of July. It's been 236 years, but there is still some bitterness over the revolution by ‘Their’ colonies.

The Pats opened up as 8 ½-point favorites and have been bet down to 7 with no movement on the total at 47. The English punters will have fun with the wagering aspect and fire away on the games at betting stations all around the stadium, even though the NFL forbids Las Vegas to buy ad time for the Super Bowl. I guess we’re bad in legal Las Vegas, but their good because it’s legal there. Doesn’t make much sense!

The Packers appear to be getting their rhythm back to 2011 speed and have looked very good the past two weeks, which is why we saw a big fat -15 on the board for their home game against the Jaguars. Because of injuries on the Jaguars, the first move was taking the Packers up to -15 ½, but has since been bet down to 14 ½. Jacksonville quarterback Blaine Gabbert (shoulder) is expected to play, but Maurice Jones-Drew (foot) is out.

The Falcons may be 6-0, but bettors still like the turnover machine known as the Eagles as they’ve bet Philly from -2 ½ up to -3 (EVEN).

The Seahawks haven’t been their best away from Seattle, but bettors seem to trust them more in this situation than the Lions, who have been offensively challenged this season. The Lions opened up at -3 (EVEN) and Seattle money has pushed the game off the key number down to 2 ½.

The Jets beat the Dolphins 23-20 in Miami last month and are playing a brand of football closer to what Rex Ryan would like lately, despite being only 1-2 in their past three. However, they got the cover in all three games -- two of them against two of the best teams in the league (Houston, New England). The Jets opened at -2 ½ and have stayed there all week.

The Bears have been bet from 7-point home favorites against the Panthers to -7 ½. Second-year QB Cam Newton asked the media for a suggestion box after another embarrassing Panthers performance last week, and it’s not going to get any easier for him this week against the Bears defense. Good luck, kid.

The Steelers opened as 4-point home favorites against the Redskins and have been bet up to -4 ½. Make a note that Pittsburgh defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau is 14-1 in his career against rookie quarterbacks.

The Raiders and Chiefs usually win as visitors when squaring off, which makes this line seem a little strange where the Chiefs are -1 ½. Trends aside, the Chiefs have lost three in a row, and badly. Even worse is that backup QB Brady Quinn has no grasp on how to run any offense and he’ll be leading the Chiefs charge this week.

The Cowboys opened as 1-point home favorites against the Giants and that number has ran, the other way. The Giants are now -2 ½, and justifiably so.

The 49ers opened as 7-point road favorites against the Cardinals and the number has been bouncing around 6 ½ and 7 all week. By the time this game kicks off on Monday, it’ll be at least 7 ½, so if you like the 49ers, jump in when/if it drops back down to -6 ½ and if you like the Cards, wait until Monday.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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10/27/2012 09:49 PM
Total Talk - Week 8

October 26, 2012

Week 7 Recap

Total players have seen a real good balance this season and Week 7 was no different. The 'under' went 7-6 and most of the outcomes were clear-cut. The Green Bay-St. Louis was mentioned last week as a "Total System Play" and it cashed the 'over' but it was real fortunate. The two teams put up a combined 27 points (7 in the last minute) in the final quarter, which helped jump over the closing number of 45. These second-half outbursts have been very common through seven weeks and it's definitely helped the betting public get back some money on 'over' tickets. On the season, the 'over' stands at 52-51-1.

Professional Plug

Joe Nelson has gone 10-3-1 (77%) on his NFL Total Plays this season and that record includes his Thursday Night winner on the 'over' between the Buccaneers and Vikings. Check out his winners for Sunday!

Lookin' at London

The NFL International Series returns this week with New England (4-3) and St. Louis (3-4) meeting at Wembley Stadium from London. This will be the sixth installment from England and if the trends stay true, we could be looking at another 'under' ticket.

2007 - New York Giants 13 Miami 10 (Under 48)
2008 - New Orleans 37 San Diego 32 (Over 45.5)
2009 - New England 35 Tampa Bay 7 (Under 45)
2010 - San Francisco 24 Denver 16 (Under 41.5)
2011 - Chicago 24 Tampa Bay 18 (Under 44)

The 'under' is cashing at an 80% (4-1) clip in these games and you could point to travel or even the dreary overcast weather in London. Either way you slice it, the numbers don't lie. For this week's matchup, the total opened at 46 ½ and jumped to 47 at a few outfits

New England is one of the few teams in the league that has an offense (34.8 PPG) that can come close to eclipsing the total by itself. However, the Rams' offense (18.6 PPG) has been very inconsistent this season but they'll be facing a Patriots' defense (23.3 PPG) that has been suspect at times. Does a bad offense score on a bad defense?

The Patriots have seen the 'over' cash in four straight games after their first two went 'under.' St. Louis has seen the 'under' go 4-3 but that number should easily be 5-2 if it wasn't for the aforementioned "Bad Beat" above.

Divisional Battles

Indianapolis at Tennessee: This total (47) is clearly based on the Titans' defense, which has allowed an average of 34 PPG this season. It's hard to see Indianapolis getting to that number, considering it's only scored a combined 30 points in two road contests this season. Tennessee's offense has played better with Matt Hasselbeck at QB, scoring 26 and 35 points the last two weeks. Despite the results this season, the 'under' has gone 6-1 in the last seven encounters between this pair.

Miami at N.Y. Jets: New York stopped Miami 23-20 in Week 3 and the even though the game went 'over' (40.5), it was helped with some key turnovers and the extra session. The rematch has a total in the same neighborhood and you could argue either way. All of the Dolphins' games could have gone 'under' if it wasn't for some crazy second-half outbursts, including the loss to the Jets. New York has seen the 'over' go 4-3 and even though the team has put 35 and 26 points the last two weeks, this isn't a run 'n shoot squad. With a Hurricane approaching the East Coast this weekend, keep an eye on the weather reports.

Oakland at Kansas City: Seven of the last eight in this series has gone 'under' and it could be eight of nine come Sunday. With Brady Quinn at quarterback, the Chiefs haven't been able to do anything but a week of rest could change that and the Raiders' defense (28.5 PPG) is far from good. Kansas City doesn't have a great defense (30.5 PPG) either but Oakland's offense has looked sluggish on the road (13 PPG).

N.Y. Giants at Dallas: Seems like a high number (47 ½) here, considering the Giants (5-2) and Cowboys (4-2) have solid marks to the 'under.' In the Week 1 opener, Dallas won 24-17 on the road. That number closed at 45 ½ and now it's a little higher, which makes you wonder why? Dallas has scored 16 and 18 in two home games and New York has allowed a total of 29 points in three road games. Certainly hard to argue an 'over' play when you look at the matchup on paper but the line could have you scratching your head. Also, don't forget the Cowboys' defense lost LB Sean Lee (toe) for the season and that's tough to overcome.

San Francisco at Arizona: This is the lowest total on the board (37 ½) and you would expect the number to go up a little since it's a MNF battle. However, Arizona (6-1) and San Francisco (4-2) have both leaned to the 'under' this season and it's hard to argue otherwise. They both have great defensive units and inconsistent attacks, which is the perfect combination for an 'under.' The 'under' has gone 4-2 in the last six meetings.

Line Moves

The smart money went 3-0 with their total moves in Week 7. Below are the Week 8 totals that have been adjusted by 1 ½ points or more at CRIS as of Friday.

San Diego at Cleveland: Line opened at 45 ½ and dropped to 44
Atlanta at Philadelphia: Line opened at 46 ½ and dropped to 45
Carolina at Chicago: Line opened at 45 and dropped to 43

Under the Lights

After watching the 'over' go 3-0 in Week 6, the 'under' came back in Week 7 with a 3-0 record. Overall, the 'under' stands at 15-8 (65%) on the season, which includes the outcome between Tampa Bay and Minnesota (36-17) on Thursday. Gamblers might want to make a note that with the Bucs' outright win, the underdog has covered six straight in the mid-week matchup.

Fearless Predictions

Caught a couple breaks last week and produced a 2-0 record in the Best Bets but lost the Team Total on the Jets. Guess the Patriots' defense is that bad. The Three-Team teaser cashed and gave us a profit of $190 for the week and $320 on the season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!

Best Over: N.Y. Giants-Dallas 47

Best Under: New England-St. Louis 47

Best Team Total: Under 20 ½ Oakland

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 38 N.Y. Giants-Dallas
Under 51 Oakland-Kansas City
Under 54.5 Jacksonville-Green Bay
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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10/27/2012 09:52 PM
Week 8 Tips

October 26, 2012

Heading into Week 8 of the NFL season, home favorites of 3 ½ points or less own a dreadful 8-18 ATS record. Five teams are in that situation this week, including three clubs that are hosting division opponents. Home 'chalk' laying 3 ½ points or fewer have covered just two of eight times this season against division foes, while the 'under' has cashed six times. We'll take a look at these five contests with short home favorites, starting with an AFC South battle as two teams attempt to grab their fourth victory of the season.

Colts at Titans (-3 ½, 47) - 1:00 PM EST

Tennessee is favored for the first time this season following consecutive victories over Pittsburgh and Buffalo. The Titans try to reach the .500 mark with a win over the Colts, who knocked off the hapless Browns last week, 17-13. Both teams are playing their second divisional contest, as Tennessee was trampled at Houston in Week 4, while Indianapolis lost at home to Jacksonville in Week 3.

The Titans rallied for wins over the Steelers (26-23) and Bills (35-34), while posting a 3-1 SU/ATS record against teams currently at .500 or below. Tennessee cashed just two of six times in Mike Munchak's first season as a home favorite, but one of those victories came over Indianapolis last October. Due to Tennessee's porous defense, the Titans have hit the 'over' in five of six games, while allowing 30 points or more five times.

The Colts have failed to win consecutive games this season, coming off their third victory against the Browns last week as a short favorite. Indianapolis is riding a 10-game losing streak away from Lucas Oil Stadium dating back to last season, including an 0-5 ATS run as a single-digit underdog. The home team has won six of the previous eight meetings in the series, but a majority of these games did have Peyton Manning under center for the Colts.

Falcons at Eagles (-3, 45) - 1:00 PM EST

The final undefeated team in the NFL tries to move to 7-0 with a victory on Sunday as Atlanta heads to Philadelphia. Andy Reid's club is in a prime spot this week coming off the bye, as the Eagles own a 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS record the last 10 seasons in this situation. Philadelphia will try to bounce back after throwing away a 10-point lead in an overtime defeat to Detroit two weeks ago.

The Eagles have cashed only two of six games this season, including a 1-4 ATS record in the favorite role. The offense isn't anywhere close to hitting its stride right now, as Philadelphia has scored 19 points or less in four of six contests. Philadelphia has won each of the last four meetings at Lincoln Financial Field dating back to 2005.

The Falcons are also off the bye week, but Mike Smith's team has escaped some dicey situations the last three games. Atlanta overcame second-half deficits in victories over Carolina, Washington, and Oakland, while putting together the best start in franchise history at 6-0. In their time as an underdog this season, the Falcons dominated the Chargers in Week 3 as three-point 'dogs, 27-3. The Falcons have won three of four games off the bye in Smith's tenure with the lone defeat coming at Philadelphia in 2008.

Seahawks at Lions (-2 ½, 43) - 1:00 PM EST

Seattle hasn't lost a home game yet this season (3-0), but Pete Carroll's club will try to improve on a 1-3 record away from CenturyLink Field. All three of Seattle's defeats came within the NFC West, including a 13-6 setback at San Francisco last Thursday as 7 ½-point underdogs. The Seahawks travel at least two time zones for the third time in five weeks, as they land in Detroit to battle a Lions' club coming off a Monday night loss at Chicago.

The Lions managed a Wild Card spot last season, but Jim Schwartz's team has work to do if they want a return trip to the playoffs. Detroit is just 2-4 through six games, including an 0-2 mark inside the NFC North. The Lions will try to bust through as a favorite for the first time this season following non-covers against the Rams, Titans, and Vikings.

The Seahawks have rolled when receiving points this season by cashing in all five opportunities as an underdog. Seattle's defense is the main reason for this success, allowing 13 points or less in four of five games in the underdog role. The Seahawks are making their third trip to Ford Field, which includes the loss in Super Bowl XL to the Steelers, but many members of that team are now off the roster.

Dolphins at Jets (-2 ½, 40 ½) - 1:00 PM EST

New York sat two minutes away from building a 3-0 record in the AFC East, but the Patriots kicked the game-tying field goal then the game-winner in overtime to stun the Jets, 29-26. The Jets did manage to cover as 11-point underdogs, their third consecutive ATS victory. The Dolphins travel to Met Life Stadium, as weather could be an issue with Hurricane Sandy making its way up the East Coast.

Miami returns from the bye week following consecutive victories over Cincinnati and St. Louis, while attempting to avenge an overtime setback to the Jets in Week 3 as short home 'dogs, 23-20. Joe Philbin's squad owns a 3-1 ATS record as a single-digit underdog, as the Dolphins seek their fourth road win over the Jets in the last five tries. In spite of the Dolphins going 3-3 to the 'under,' the argument can be made that the 'under' could have at least two more times if not for late scores to force overtime.

The Jets have exploded in home victories over the Bills and Colts, scoring 83 points in those two routs. New York's schedule hasn't been kind to them with losses already to San Francisco and Houston at home, but the Jets are 3-0 SU/ATS in the favorite role. Three of the next four games for the Jets following the bye week come against the NFC West, but the Jets head into this week with a 1-3 SU/ATS at home off a division loss in Rex Ryan's tenure.

Raiders at Chiefs (-1 ½, 42) - 4:05 PM EST

These old AFL rivals have hit the skids this season, combining for a 3-9 record, while all three of the wins came when trailing in the fourth quarter. Oakland stunned Jacksonville last Sunday in overtime, rallying from a 14-point deficit to beat the Jaguars, 26-23, but the Raiders failed to cover as six-point 'chalk.' The Chiefs have plenty of problems, as Romeo Crennel turns to former Notre Dame standout Brady Quinn to right the ship at quarterback.

Kansas City should be fortunate it has even one victory this season, overcoming a 24-6 deficit in a 27-24 overtime triumph at New Orleans in Week 3 as nine-point 'dogs. Since that win, the Chiefs have scored 36 total points in losses to the Chargers, Ravens, and Buccaneers. The Chiefs are favored for the first time since Week 16 of last season when Kansas City was tripped up by Oakland as three-point favorites, 16-13. Since 2008, the Chiefs have put together a dreadful 3-10 ATS record when laying points at Arrowhead Stadium.

The road team owns this series over the last few seasons, as the Raiders have won five consecutive trips to Western Missouri. Oakland is averaging just 13 points per game in three away losses, but managed a cover as nine-point 'dogs in a three-point loss at Atlanta two weeks ago. The Silver and Black doesn't mess around against division foes on the highway, compiling an 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS record since 2009, with the lone ATS defeat coming at Denver in Week 4.
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10/27/2012 09:55 PM
Gridiron Angles - Week 8

October 27, 2012

NFL ATS TREND:

-- The Raiders are 0-10 ATS (-10.9 ppg) since December 30, 2001 after a game as at least a three-point favorite where they trailed by at least a TD.

NFL OU TREND:

-- The Rams are 0-13 OU (11.4 ppg) since 2000 after a game where they punted no more than two times and recorded at least three sacks.

NCAA ATS PLAY ON TREND:

-- Florida is 12-0 ATS (10.2 ppg) since 1994 when they covered by more than 19 last game while allowing less than 13 points and aren’t a favorite of 40 or more points.

NCAA ATS PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- Tulane is 0-12 ATS (-16.5 ppg) since October 2003 past game two as between a 5-pt favorite and 15-pt dog, when they won by a TD or less or lost by four or less last game.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:

-- When facing a team which allowed 35+ points last game and less than 14 points two games ago, teams are 114-86-6 ATS (57.0%). Active with Oakland playing Kansas City.

NFL BIBLE TREND OF THE WEEK:

-- The Packers are 19-0 ATS (+13.7 ppg) since October 1994 when they are off a game in which they passed for at least 325 yards and punted fewer than four times
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10/27/2012 09:59 PM
NFL Week 8 Preview: Redskins at Steelers

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (3-4)

at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (3-3)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Pittsburgh -4.5, Total: 47.5

The Steelers try to win two straight games for the first time all season when they host the Redskins on Sunday.

Robert Griffin III gets another major test. The Steelers match up fairly well with RG3, as their zone blitz scheme will allow linebackers and safeties to more effectively spy on Griffin. Their pass rush was much improved with OLBs James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley healthy and back in the lineup. S Troy Polamalu (calf) will be out for this game though. The ‘Skins continue to get burned by their atrocious defense, specifically the secondary. They’re allowing 328.4 passing yards per game (no team has ever allowed 300+ over a full season) and surrendered a 77-yard TD pass with 1:13 left in a loss to the Giants last week.

Can the Redskins pull off the big road upset? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Griffin ranks third in the NFL in passer rating (101.8), but he's thrown just 3 TD and 2 INT in the past four games. He will not have the services of starting TE Fred Davis, who is out for the season with a ruptured Achilles' tendon, and top WR Pierre Garcon, who is out indefinitely with a foot injury. TE Logan Paulsen led the team with 76 receiving yards in last week's loss to the Giants, followed closely by WRs Leonard Hankerson (70 rec yds) and Santana Moss (67 rec yds, 2 TD). One player who has been rock-solid all season is rookie RB Alfred Morris (658 rush yds, 3rd in NFL). He's rushed for more than 110 yards in three of the past four games, including 120 in New York last week. However, the Steelers have allowed only one team to reach 100 rushing yards all season (Oakland in Week 3). Defensively, Washington has allowed at least 293 passing yards in every game and 325+ yards in each of the past three contests. On the bright side, its run defense has been stingy all season, allowing just 85 rushing YPG (7th in NFL). But it could be missing top LB London Fletcher, who is questionable with a hamstring injury. The Redskins continue to make big plays though, with 16 forced turnovers in their seven games.

Roethlisberger ranks fifth in the NFL in passer rating (98.6) and has won 11 of his past 12 home starts dating back to last season. He and top WR Mike Wallace still don't seem to be on the same page. Despite 27 targets over the past three weeks, Wallace has just 163 receiving yards, with more than half of that (82) coming from one catch. WR teammate Antonio Brown has been much more consistent, catching seven passes in four of the past five games. With RBs Rashard Mendenhall (Achilles, doubtful) and Isaac Redman (ankle, questionable) both injured, Jonathan Dwyer will get the start at running back. He had a huge game in Cincinnati last Sunday night, rumbling for 122 yards on just 17 carries (7.2 YPC). Pittsburgh ranks second in the NFL in passing defense (185 YPG), but could be missing another safety in addition to Polamalu, as Will Allen is nursing an ankle injury. The Steelers have forced multiple turnovers in a game just once all season, as their seven takeaways is tied for the fifth-fewest in the NFL.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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