Tech Trends - Week 6
October 4, 2012
Thursday, Oct. 4
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
EAST CAROLINA at UCF...ECU has won three of last four meetings but has covered only of those (LY's 38-31 upset at Greenville). UCF 9-6 as home favorite (and 5-2 laying DD at home) since 2010. Slight to UCF, based on team trends.
SOUTHERN CAL at UTAH...Remember the way this one ended a year ago? Lane Kiffin just 1-3 vs. line this season and 0-2 as road chalk. Utes covered as home dog vs. BYU on Sept. 15 but Whittingham just 1-2 as home dog since 2010 and just 7-15 vs. spread last 22 on board since mid-2010. Slight to SC, based on recent Utah trends.
ARKANSAS STATE at FLORIDA INT'L...Gus Malzahn 2-3 vs. line TY after ASU was 10-3 vs. spread a year ago. But if FIU getting points note 9-4 dog mark since 2010 and 3-0 mark as home dog. Slight to FIU, especially if dog, based on team trends.
Friday, Oct. 5
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
PITTSBURGH at SYRACUSE...Pitt has covered last three and won SU last seven vs. Cuse. Marrone 1-3 vs. line TY and 4-12 since 2011. Cuse 2-6 last 8 as dog. Pitt, based on recent Cuse woes.
UTAH STATE at BYU...USU 27-11 overall as dog since 2007, 20-5 as road dog that span. Utags have also covered last four vs. BYU. But Cougs 9-5 as Provo chalk since 2010 after Hawaii win. USU, based on team and series trends.
Saturday, Oct. 6
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
NAVY at AIR FORCE...Falcs have turned this around by winning the past two seasons and helping Force to claim Commander-in-Chief back-to-back years. Although Mids still 7-1-1 vs. spread last nine meetings and have covered last five trips to Colorado Springs. Force only 3-10 as Falcon Stadium chalk since 2010. Navy, based on team and series trends.
MICHIGAN STATE at INDIANA...Spartans won over IU by 55-3 score LY! Road team is 5-0 vs. line in early MSU games this season (Spartans 1-0 on road vs. spread) and Dantonio 10-3 as road chalk since 2007. Kevin Wilson 6-10 vs. spread with Hoosiers since LY. MSU, based on road chalk mark.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS at BALL STATE...Cards 9-2 last 11 vs. number since mid 2011, including cover at DeKalb late LY. Lembo has also turned around what was a poor Ball State home spread mark by covering three of last four at Muncie. Huskies only 4-5 vs. line away since LY and Cards have covered 3 of last 4 in series. Ball State, based on recent Lembo marks.
BOSTON COLLEGE at ARMY...West Point 5-1 vs. line at home since LY in a reversal of previous spread form. BC only 4-7 as chalk (though 2-0 as road chalk) since 2010. Army, based on recent home mark.
BOWLING GREEN at AKRON...BGSU 1-3 vs. line last 4 TY, Akron 3-1 vs. line last 4 TY. Falcs 0-2 as MAC chalk since 2010. Akron, based on recent trends.
MIAMI-OH at CINCINNATI...Long-standing local rivalry has mostly favored Cincy lately, as Bearcats have covered last two easily and are 5-1 vs. number last six against RedHawks. Cincy hasn't lost SU to Miami since 2005. Cincinnati, based on series trends.
GEORGIA TECH at CLEMSON...Revenge for Dabo after Paul Johnson dealt Clemson its first defeat of 2011 a year ago. Paul Johnson 17-11 vs. line on road while at GT (although only 5-8 since 2010), but only 5-6 as dog since 2010. Dabo no covers last three in Death Valley and only 3-7 vs. spread last 10 on board since mid 2011. Slight to GT, based on team trends.
VIRGINIA at DUKE...Duke has had the spread edge lately in series, standing 4-0-1 vs. line last five vs. Cavs. UVa only 6-11-1 vs. spread since 2011 and 1-6 against number last seven on board since late LY. Cutcliffe has covered first three at Durham TY and is 17-10-2 vs. number overall since 2010. Duke, based on series and team trends.
SOUTH FLORIDA at TEMPLE...Skip 3-11 last 14 on board since early in 2011 campaign. Temple, based on recent Skip woes.
NORTHWESTERN at PENN STATE...O'Brien has recovered from Ohio loss with four straight Nittany Lions covers, although PSU still just 3-6-1 vs. line at Beaver Stadium since LY. Pat Fitzgerald 15-8 as road pick or dog since 2007, although remember that PSU brutalized NU in recent years (covered handily each of last three years). Slight to NU, based on recent trends.
KENT STATE at EASTERN MICHIGAN...Not much home edge in Ypsilanti for EMU, now 5-17 vs. line at Rynearson Stadium since 2007. Rugged Kent State, however, just 5-9 vs. line away since 2010 (1-1 TY), but 2-1 as road chalk since 2010. Kent State, based on extended EMU home woes.
UCONN at RUTGERS...Pasqualoni physically battered Rutgers LY but Scarlet Knights had covered previous three in series. Scarlet Knights 4-0 SU TY but 0-1 as home chalk, and 'Gers 0-3 laying DD at Piscataway since 2010. Pasqualoni only 1-4 as road dog since LY, however. Slight to Pasqualoni, based on team trends.
FLORIDA STATE at NC STATE...Revenge for O'Brien after getting routed 34-0 at FSU LY. We are almost to the point where the "go with NCS" kicks in for O'Brien after game five on schedule but note he is 10-4-1 vs. line at Raleigh since 2010 and 26-15-1 overall as dog with Wolfpack since 2007. NCS, based on team trends.
UMASS at WESTERN MICHIGAN...WMU is 8-3 as Waldo Stadium chalk since 2010 and 5-2 as DD Waldo chalk that span. WMU, based on Waldo chalk marks.
VANDERBILT at MISSOURI...James Franklin now no covers last three away from Nashville (0-2 TY) and just 2-6 vs. spread on road since LY. Slight to Mizzou, based on recent Vandy road woes.
TEXAS A&M at OLE MISS...Sumlin 13-5 vs. line since LY at UH & AM. But Hugh "Pointspread Cover" Freeze 4-1 vs. line at Ole Miss and 14-3 vs. spread since LY (Ark State & Rebs). Ole Miss, based on Freeze marks.
VIRGINIA TECH at NORTH CAROLINA...Beamer only 5-14 vs. line since LY. Fedora 3-0 vs. line at home TY but Beamer 32-19 vs. points away since 2004. VT, based on extended road mark.
WASHINGTON at OREGON...Ducks have dominated this series lately, winning and covering last eight meetings. Though Ducks had failed to cover last eight as DD Eugene chalk prior to recent romp past Arizona. Huskies only 2-5 vs. line on road since LY. Oregon, based on series trends.
GEORGIA at SOUTH CAROLINA...Spurrier has beaten Georgia past two years and is 4-0-1 vs. line last five in series. Mark Richt 0-5 as road dog since 2010. Cocks 7-3 vs. line last 10 at Williams-Brice. South Carolina, based on series and team trends.
WEST VIRGINIA at TEXAS...First Big 12 road game for WVU! Holgorsen was 3-1 as dog LY and Mounties 8-2 as dog going back to the 2007 season. Mack 5-10 vs spread at Austin since 20110 (but 4-4 since LY). WVU, based on team trends.
IOWA STATE at TCU...Paul Rhoads 4-1 vs. line last five away from Ames, 5-3 as road dog since LY. Frogs have covered first two as Fort Worth chalk TY but were only 2-5 in home chalk role LY and only 7-10 last 17 on board overall. Slight to ISU, based on recent trends.
ILLINOIS at WISCONSIN...Bielema 1-6 vs. line last 7 on board. Bielema was 6-1 vs. line at Madison LY but 0-3 thus far in 2012. Illini was 6-1 as dog the past two seasons but Beckman 0-1 in role after loss at ASU. Slight to Illinois, based on recent Bielema spread woes.
KANSAS at KANSAS STATE...Bill Snyder has won and covered all three vs. KU since his return to KSU sidelines in 2009, and has brutalized Jayhawks past two years with 59-point scoring explosions each time! Snyder now 15-1 SU last 16 in series! Snyder also 12-5 vs. line since 2011. KSU, based on Bill Snyder marks.
UCLA at CALIFORNIA...Underdog team has covered in first five Cal games this season. Tedford was 9-1 as home chalk past two years (including last year across SF Bay) but has failed to cover first three in role TY. Bears have beaten Bruins last six SU at Berkeley. Mora 2-0 vs. line on road. Slight to UCLA, based on recent trends.
ARKANSAS at AUBURN...Hogs 0-5 vs. line for John L. but Chizik only 1-3 vs. line this season and 6-11 vs. spread post-Cam. Host has covered last three in series. Auburn, based on recent John L. woes.
MICHIGAN at PURDUE...Danny Hope's Purdue is 3-0 vs. line TY and on 9-3 spread run since mid 2011. Boilermakers have covered 3 of last 4 in series, and Brady Hoke just 1-3 vs. line TY. Purdue, based on recent trends.
WYOMING at NEVADA...Wyo 15-4 as road dog since 2009 but just 14-15 vs. number since 2010. Chris Ault 25-12 as Reno chalk since returning to Pack sidelines in 2004. Nevada, based on home marks.
NEW MEXICO STATE at IDAHO...DeWayne Walker has covered the last two years vs. Akey. Idaho 5-12 vs. spread last 17 at Kibbie Dome. NMSU, based on recent Idaho home woes.
ARIZONA at STANFORD...Tree only 2-2 vs. line TY (1-2 as chalk) after 11-2 spread mark LY and 19-7 over the past two seasons. Tree did win and cover last two vs. Arizona with Andrew Luck. Zona 0-1 vs. line away TY and 4-10 last 14 away since late 2009, Rich-Rod teams just 3-12 their last 15 on road since 2008 at Michigan. Stanford, based on recent trends.
OKLAHOMA at TEXAS TECH...Revenge for Stoops after upset loss vs. TT in 2011 (Stoops 3-1 vs. line last two years in role). Tuberville 4-0 vs. line early in 2012. Home side has covered 5 of last 6 meetings including Red Raiders covering both at Lubbock. TT, based on team and series trends.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN at TOLEDO...Despite upset win at Iowa, Dan Enos' CMU just 4-20 last 24 on board since early 2010. Toledo has won and covered last two meetings. Toledo, based on CMU spread woes.
BOISE STATE at SOUTHERN MISS...Boise 23-7 its last 30 away since the 2008 season. Boise, based on team trends.
RICE at MEMPHIS...Ugh! Memphis 0-2 vs. line at home TY, 0-21 vs. spread at Liberty Bowl since 2007. Physical Owls were just 2-10 vs. line away the past two seasons but have covered their first two on road in 2012, and they're 9-3 in rare chalk role since 2007(2-1 since 2010). Rice, based on Memphis negatives.
WAKE FOREST at MARYLAND...Road team has covered in all four Terp games TY, and Edsall no covers last nine as host since LY! Deacs just 4-10 vs. line away since 2010. Slight to Wake, based on recent Maryland home negatives.
MISSISSIPPI STATE at KENTUCKY...Joker on the ropes, 1-4 SU and vs. line TY, now 6-13 as dog since taking over Cats in 2010. Dan Mullen is 3-0 SU and vs. line against UK. MSU, based on team and series trends.
WASHINGTON STATE at OREGON STATE...With the exception of a shock 31-14 home loss in 2010, Beavs have mostly dominated series, now 9-2 vs. line last 11 vs. Cougs. Mike Riley 2-0 SU and vs. line TY though beware of his 1-7 chalk mark the past two seasons. OSU, based on series trends.
UNLV at LOUISIANA TECH...Uh-oh, here we go again with UNLV on the road, 0-14 SU and 1-13 vs. line away since Bobby Hauck arrived in 2010, now 8-32 vs. number as visitor since 2005. La Tech on 10-1 spread run since mid 2011 though Sonny Dykes only 2-3 as home chalk since LY. La Tech, based on team trends.
TULSA at MARSHALL...Tulsa 10-5 vs. line away since 2010 (6-5 as road chalk). Doc Holliday has covered his last four as home doggie since 2010. Slight to Marshall, based on Doc Holliday home dog mark.
MIAMI (FL) vs. NOTRE DAME (at Soldier Field in Chicago)...Brian Kelly 4-0 SU and vs. line TY but Al "Touch of" Golden 6-2 vs. line away since arriving with Canes LY and his teams are 22-12 vs. points away since 2007 (Temple & ND). Golden teams also 19-10 as dog since 2007 (4-2 at Miami). Miami, based on extended Al Golden road/dog marks.
OHIO...Bulls out-hit Solich in 38-37 upset LY, but home team has covered 4 of last 6 and 6 of last 9 meetings. Solich 2-0 as DD home chalk TY after 0-3 mark at Peden Stadium in role LY. Ohio, based on series trends.
NEBRASKA at OHIO STATE...Bo Pelini no covers in three as road dog LY and covered just one of four (1-2-1) on Big Ten road LY. Home team 6-1-1 vs. spread last seven reg.-season Husker games dating to late 2011. Slight to Ohio State, based on recent trends.
HAWAII at SAN DIEGO STATE...Norm Chow appears to have some problems as UH has been buried in its last two games vs. Nevada & BYU by combined 116-24 score! UH 6-12 last 18 on board. But Rocky Long just 4-8 as chalk since taking over at SDSU and his teams are 13-22 last 35 as chalk at Lobos and Aztecs. Slight to SDSU, based on team trends.
FRESNO STATE at COLORADO STATE...FSU 5-0 vs. line TY including 2-0 on road. McElwain 1-4 TY for CSU and Rams just 6-13 vs. line last 19 on board since late 2010. Fresno, based on recent trends.
LSU at FLORIDA...Will Muschamp has now covered three straight as Gators begin ascent. Les Miles has won and covered last two vs. Gators after dropping previous five vs. line in series. Muschamp was 0-5 as dog LY but 1-0 in role TY (vs. Tennessee). Miles 7-2 as road chalk since 2010. Slight to LSU, based on recent trends.
TEXAS STATE at NEW MEXICO...Franchione returns to New Mexico! Bob Davie 2-0 vs. line at home TY! UNM, based on team trends.
SMU at UTEP...June Jones 7-12 last 19 and 10-17 last 27 on board as SMU spread fortunes plummet. Mike Price 4-1 SU and 5-0 vs. line last five against SMU! If getting points note Mustangs 3-7 last 10 as road dog. UTEP 2-0 vs. line at Sun Bowl TY and Price not so bad 6-5 as chalk since 2010. UTEP, based on team and series trends.
Saturday, Oct. 6 - Added Games
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
TULANE at LOUISIANA...Wave 13-30-1 vs. line since late in 2008 campaign. Cajuns 12-5 overall against number since LY. ULL, based on team trends.
UL-MONROE at MIDDLE TENNESSEE...Home team has romped as these teams split last two meetings but other trends point to ULM, now 4-0 vs. line TY and 7-1 vs. spread last eight since late 2011. MTSU 3-10 vs. spread last 13 at home since 2010. ULM, based on recent trends
NORTH TEXAS at HOUSTON...UH 1-3 SU and vs. line for Tony Levine TY. Dan McCarney's UNT has covered its last four away from Denton vs. non-Belt foes. UNT, based on recent trends.