jimmythegreek Posts:10376 Followers:376
On 09/27/2012 01:53 PM in NFL

NFL GREEK INSIDER WEEK 4

It was a tough week 3 for the insider last week dropping all 4 plays. Let's hope in week 4 we can turn the tide as it has been a subpar start not just in the pros but in college. I'll have a play on the Thursday night game with 3 others to follow over the weekend.

Baltimore -12 over Cleveland:
The Baltimore Ravens may not be happy about having to play Thursday night, but the fact they are hosting the Cleveland Browns should more than make up for the short week following a last second nailbiter win hosting New England in front of a nationally televised audience Sunday evening. The Ravens have won eight straight over their AFC North rivals, and the Browns are the conference's only winless team heading into this matchup at M&T Bank Stadium.

Baltimore may be hosting the perfect opponent under these circumstances. Besides joining New Orleans as the league's only teams without a win, Cleveland (0-3) enters on losing streaks of 11 straight in AFC North play and 11 on the road within the division. If Cleveland wishes to turn around its fortune in this rivalry, rookies Brandon Weeden and Trent Richardson likely need to be productive enough to outscore a balanced offense that leads the league averaging nearly 33 ppg through its first 3 contests.

Weeden has thrown an AFC-high six interceptions, was sacked a season-high four times in Sunday's 24-14 home loss to Buffalo and will now face a deense with perennial All-Pros Reed and Ray Lewis for the first time. Weeden's 60.7 quarterback rating is the league's third-worst heading into week 4 action. The Ravens are limiting opposing rushers to 3.3 yards per carry for the league's fourth-best mark as they get their first look at Richardson, who was held to a season-low 27 yards on 12 carries Sunday. Ray Rice (46 carries for 268 yards and 3 TD plus 14 receptions for 127 yards this year) will also be a huge part of the Ravens offensive game plan both controlling the tempo through the running attack and catch balls out of the backfield.

The three days off may mean the most to Torrey Smith, who scored two touchdowns Sunday less than 24 hours after his younger brother was killed in a motorcycle accident as the Ravens rallied around him. Smith is up to a team-high 235 yards receiving, and Joe Flacco is second in the NFL with an AFC-best 913 passing yards to go with a 101.1 QB rating. Cleveland will be hampered with top receiver Mohamed Massaquoi and tight end Alex Smith unavailable. Massaquoi is bothered by a pulled hamstring and Smith has a concussion that also caused him to miss last week's game.

During this 8 game winning streak against Cleveland, Baltimore has outgained the Browns by an average of 352-232 while winning by an average of just over 14 points per contest. Too much firepower on both sides of the ball in this one, and Baltimore should continue its dominance of Cleveland by establishing a sizeable lead early and maintaining it throughout.

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jimmythegreek Posts:10376 Followers:376
09/28/2012 04:13 PM

Houston -12 over Tennessee:
Back home after two in a row on the road, Houston goes for a fourth consecutive victory Sunday when it faces the Tennessee Titans, who look to build on their first win of the season. The only team in the NFL to win its first two games in each of the last three seasons, Houston improved to 3-0 for the first time with a 31-25 victory over Denver on Sunday. The Texans hung on after surrendering two unanswered touchdowns in the final 9:49. Houston is third in the league in scoring defense with 14.0 points per game and second in total defense with 255.7 yards per contest.

Houston's last four-game winning streak came during a team-best seven-game run that started with a 41-7 road victory over Tennessee on Oct. 23. Winning four in a row again will likely also require keeping Matt Schaub upright. He has been sacked just three times, but he lost a piece of his left ear lobe last Sunday when he was flattened by Joe Mays, who received a roughing-the-passer penalty. Schaub is unlikely to have receiver Lestar Jean available, but star receiver Andre Johnson and tight end Owen Daniels, who share the team lead with 13 catches, could cause plenty of problems for a Titans team yielding a league-high 37.7 points per game. Houston's powerful rushing attack is led by Arian Foster, who has 294 yards on a league-high 79 carries. The Texans lead the league in time of possession at 36 minutes, 34 seconds.

Tennessee's opponents are spending a league-high 36:42 on the field, in large part because of an NFL-worst running attack that's averaging 39.0 yards. Former 2,000-yard runner Chris Johnson has 45 yards on 33 carries after finishing with 24 yards in a 44-41 overtime win over Detroit last Sunday. If the Titans can't get the running game going Sunday, they'll have to rely more on Jake Locker, who earned his first career win last Sunday after throwing for a career-high 378 yards and two scores.

The Titans have done a nice job protecting Locker the last two games, but going three consecutive weeks without allowing a sack could be asking a lot as they face a Texans team that has recorded three sacks in each game. The Texans are a well-oiled machine on both sides of the ball and have the home crowd backing them up this week to boot. We expect Houston to bring forth another solid effort and a two touchdown plus win is to be expected from one of the final three league unbeatens.


















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jimmythegreek Posts:10376 Followers:376
09/28/2012 04:24 PM

Atlanta -6.5 over Carolina (bought half):
Matt Ryan owns the best passer rating in the NFL, and his unbeaten Atlanta Falcons are off to their best start in eight seasons. Cam Newton is enduring a start to his second season with the Carolina Panthers that has been so difficult that he has been forced to deny that he is seeing a therapist. Ryan and the Falcons have already built a two-game cushion atop the NFC South and will look to ruin another homecoming for Newton at the Georgia Dome on Sunday.

Atlanta has opened with three victories for the first time since a 4-0 start in 2004. Ryan has posted a 114.0 rating and his eight touchdowns are tied for most in the league. Confidence is currently lacking with Newton, who grew up in College Park - south of downtown Atlanta. No full-time starting quarterback has thrown fewer touchdown passes than the two by the player who won offensive rookie of the year honors in 2011. Things got so bad during a 36-7 home loss to the Giants last Thursday that receiver Steve Smith told Newton to get up and watch backup Derek Anderson play at the end of the game instead of sulking on the bench. That incident has caused some to question Newton's mental toughness, and multiple reports have stated that he had sought professional help to deal with the adversity.

Newton will return to the place where he threw four touchdowns and ran for two more in a 56-17 rout of South Carolina two seasons ago in the SEC championship game, which was part of Auburn's BCS title season. The Falcons also won 31-23 on the road over Carolina (1-2) on Dec. 11 to extend their win streak in this series to four. Ryan had possibly the best game of his career with 320 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions while Newton threw for two scores but was intercepted twice. Atlanta has seen Ryan play at a high level through three games in 2012, with three TD passes in a 27-3 victory at San Diego on Sunday. The lone negative came when his team record of 272 consecutive pass attempts without an interception ended in the fourth quarter, but that is the Falcons' only turnover of 2012.

If there's any hope to slowing down a passing attack that features Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White and Julio Jones, it may come from Carolina coach Ron Rivera's prep work while watching the Falcons play the Chargers. Rivera was San Diego's defensive coordinator prior to joining the Panthers. The Falcons could be poised to turn this into another miserable afternoon for Newton, who posted two of his four worst passer ratings of 2011 against them. Atlanta's revamped secondary features newcomer Asante Samuel joining fellow corner Dunta Robinson and safety Thomas DeCoud. The unit has produced a league-high seven interceptions - three by DeCoud - in new coordinator Mike Nolan's scheme.

Given all the factors, whose quarterback has more to prove it'd be easy to lean toward the Panthers to get a much needed paradigm-shifting win. Still, with as high a level as Ryan and Co. are operating on, it's just as difficult to pick against them until they lose. Especially at home, where I think the Falcons will continue to fly high and remain unbeaten in convincing fashion.














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jimmythegreek Posts:10376 Followers:376
09/28/2012 04:34 PM

Washington/Tampa Bay over 47.5:
Washington's offense has been boosted by rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III, who has helped the Redskins produce a league-high 33.0 points per game. The problem has been a defense that's yielding 442.0 yards a contest for one of the worst marks in the NFL, including 337.3 through the air for the league's second-worst average. Washington has allowed a league-high 10 touchdown passes - four by Cincinnati in a 38-31 home loss last Sunday. Tampa Bay, though, may prove unable to take advantage of those woes. The Buccaneers are averaging a league-low 258.3 yards and their 149.0 per game passing is third lowest in the league.

Josh Freeman has the worst completion percentage in the NFC at 51.3 and his passer rating of 71.4 is fifth worst in the league. He threw for 110 yards - his second-lowest career total as a starter - and completed 10 of 28 passes in a 16-10 loss at Dallas on Sunday. The only club with a worse pass defense than Washington is Tampa Bay, which is allowing an average of 353.3 yards through the air. Griffin, though, has thrown for most of his 747 yards on shorter routes, with the Redskins' 413 yards after catches tied for the seventh-highest total in the league. He's also rushed for 209 yards and three scores with his combination of running and throwing turning around Washington's attack.

The Redskins' defense, however, has been so bad that it's kept the club from turning around its losing ways. Washington has allowed 16 pass plays of 20-plus yards over three games, second most in the NFL. It may not be hard to limit Tampa Bay to a low point total if Freeman can't get untracked. The Bucs signed veteran receiver Roscoe Parrish on Tuesday in an effort to spark their passing game and waived Jordan Shipley, who muffed a punt against the Cowboys. The Bucs have lost defensive end Adrian Clayborn for the season due to knee surgery. Clayborn had a team-high 7 1/2 sacks in 2011. The Redskins are hoping that starting left tackle Trent Williams will be back after sitting out most of Sunday's loss with an injured right knee.

Washington also has issues at running back after placing Roy Helu Jr. on injured reserve, while Evan Royster is suffering from a strained right patella tendon. The Redskins have signed veteran Ryan Grant. The two-time 1,200-yard rusher arrived for his first practice Wednesday and is expected to back up rookie starter Alfred Morris. He spent five seasons with Green Bay and was on the verge of signing with the Bears before the Redskins obtained his services.

RGIII's impact on Washington's offense is clearly noticeable with the Redskins averaging a league-best 33 points per game on offense. The defense looks like it is going to be an issue for this team moving forward, but against a team with an unspectacular offense like Tampa Bay's, Washington should be able to make enough plays to get back on the winning side as Tampa may hang around for awhile in what potentially could be a high scoring contest.

Best of luck to all in week 4









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raizencane Posts:70 Followers:1
09/30/2012 10:41 AM

Good Luck today JTGR!

Cane

"It's A Canes Thing, You Wouldn't Understand"
151rum Posts:908 Followers:13
09/30/2012 12:00 PM

gl jimmy.... go jets+4.5...cinn-1....oak+7...kc-pk......wash+2.5...giants+1...over 50.5 ne...over 48 oak gl 151

You’ve got to get to the stage in life where going for it is more important than winning or losing.