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Michigan vs. Notre Dame, 09/22/2012 19:30
Point Spread: +6/-105 Michigan
Michigan Wolverines +6
Notre Dame wants this game badly, but it would not be wise to lay the points with the Irish. That's because Michigan has had their number. The Wolverines have won each of the last three and five of the past six meetings.
The last three meetings have been close with the Wolverines winning each by four points. With another close game likely, I'll gladly take the points. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, and the Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Looking back further, we find that the underdog is on a 21-5 ATS run in this series.
The big difference in the series recently has been Michigan QB Denard Robinson. He set a school record with 502 total yards of offense in the 2010 victory. He was back at it last year with 446 yards of offense and four touchdowns.
Even if Notre Dame is able to end its losing streak against Michigan, there's a good chance it won't win this game by more than the posted number. Michigan has been looking for a chance to make a statement since getting embarrassed by Alabama, and I believe it makes it here. Take the points.