09/13/2012 02:17 PM
So you think It is more advisable to bet your money on "Hunches" than statistical information or trends pointing in a certain direction ?
Admittedly, sometimes trends can be thrown out the door, because each new sporting event is a seperate entity from the previous one. However, if a trend keeps showing up over and over, it is a good idea to look closely at this.
As far as statistics go, they are far more effective in college football and basketball. As a matter of fact they are very effective if you know what to do with them. The NFL and NBA are a different horse when it comes to statistics. I can tell you what a line will be before the Vegas Odds makers release the line based upon statistics.
I used to live by "Gut Feelings" and "Free PIcks" when I first got to Las Vegas over 25 years ago. And my best years based upon this method was maybe 53% winning percentage. Honestly, it was almost always close to 50%. It wasn't until I came across a mathematical formula that Vegas Odds makers use to set the official lines that my career as a professional sports bettor took off. My winning percentage in college football and basketball shot up through the roof. Over 60% most of the time, and this was for entire seasons, not just short periods.
Your assessment of the Packers after game 1 is shared by me and probably a lot of other people. As a matter of fact, I posted saying I didnt like the line because either team could win this game. I personally like the over. Much of what you say is valid, but for me personally, the statistics made it possible for me to do this as a living. And I am very thankful I have had this opportunity.