Some observations and a Pick
2 Replies | 257 ViewsOn 09/12/2012 11:23 PM in NCAA Football
I have lost a load of money over the years on these "Sucker" games because I don't have the cajones to take the opposing team. Why ? Because it doesn't make any sense to me. Yet, I get burnt time after time. This is not a recommendation, this is simply my stubborn ego taking control. Start the barbecue because I am about to get burnt again on Va Tech., but i cannot bring myself to put money on Pitt.
South Florida against Rutgers. Be careful, as Rutgers conservative grind it out football style can and sometimes does pull the other team completely out of their game plans. However, Rutgers beat a weak Tulane team in Week 1 by a 24-12 deficit and then beat a weak Howard team 28-0 in week 2. Keep in mind, Rutgers doesn't run up scores.
USF beat a weak Chattanooga team 34-13 in their opener and then had an impressive 32-31 win over Nevada at Nevada. Nevada had beat a good California team the week before.
Rutgers has 6 Returning Starters on Offense and 8 on Defense. USF has 8 on Offense and 8 on Defense.
USF has apparently a solid and at times explosive offense. Rutgers is a more grind it out ball control team who passes only if it calls for it.
Last year this game would have favored Rutgers by 8.5 points on a neutral field, but this year, playing at USF and with the turnover of players, the line is sitting at USF - 7.5 pts.
Not an easy game to analyze because of the style of play of Rutgers, however, I just can't see Rutgers putting up more than 17 to 21 points in this game and I think USF is capable of scoring 30 or more.
Take USF - the points
Bears vs. Packers
LIfelong Bears fan here. They looked solid in their first win against a bad colts team. Green Bay looked average against a very good super bowl contending 49'ers team.
The tough part in this analysis is the Green Bay defense. They finished dead last in 2011. And they looked hapless against a mediocre San Fran Offense. The Chicago Offense is better than the San Fran Offense.
I think it is safe to assume that the Packers Offense will motor it up at the home opener. Yet, the Bears looked good enough to me on offense in Game 1 to believe they will score some points also. I look for a 35-24 game here, which either team could win.
Take the Over on the G Bay Game