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steve_janus
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Sunday's NFL Free Pick: New England Patriots -13.5

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On 09/12/2012 05:39 PM in Cappers
Arizona vs. New England, 09/16/2012 13:00
Point Spread: -13½/-110 New England

Sunday's NFL Free Pick: New England Patriots -13.5

The Patriots opened up at a 14.5-point favorite, but have since been bet down to -13.5. I strongly recommend jumping on this play before it goes back up to 14!

The Patriots went on the road and beat up on the Texans 34-13 in Week 1. Arizona was able to hold off Seattle at home 20-16, but could have just as easily lost that game. The Seahawks had the ball inside the Cardinals 4-yard line but failed on 4 straight pass attempts behind a rookie quarterback.

Arizona lost starting quarterback John Skelton to an ankle injury late in that game, and he is listed as doubtful for Sunday. That leaves the Cardinals with Kevin Kolb as their starter. I know Kolb led the Cardinals to a touchdown late against Seattle, but we are talking about a quarterback who couldn't beat out John Skelton. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Skelton turned the ball over 3 or 4 times against Bill Belichick's defense.

Speaking of the Patriots defense, they looked pretty good in the opener considering how bad they played on that side of the ball in 2011. New England held Chris Johnson and the Titans running game to just 20 yards on 16 attempts. Allowing just 1.3 yards/carry. The Cardinals rushing attack produced just 43 yards on 20 attempts against the Seahawks. That all boils down to Kolb dropping back to pass 40+ times in this game, which is exactly what we want.

New England's offense was very efficient against a solid Tennessee defense. Tom Brady completed 23 of 31 attempts for 236 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. At the same time, running back Stevan Ridley carried it 21 times for 125 yards and a score. The Patriots simply have too many weapons for a young Arizona defense to contain.

Not only do the Patriots have what I believe to be a clear advantage on both sides of the ball, this game falls into a situation that rarely loses. Anytime you have a home favorite that outgained opponents by 4 or more points/game the previous season, who just scored 30 or more in their last game, you load up on the home team! It's 36-9 (80%) SINCE 1983!

Other key trends favoring New England. The Patriots are 23-8-1 ATS in their last 32 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game, while the Cardinals are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. BET NEW ENGLAND!

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