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09/16/2012 12:57 AM
Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

The NFL Week 2 lines have had a chance to sizzle in the football frying pan since their release Monday. While plenty are hovering around the original number, some have moved drastically with one-sided action and sharp bets pushing the odds.

We talk to John Avello, sportsbook director at the Wynn Las Vegas, about this week’s biggest moves and where he expects them to go before kickoff:

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers – Open: Carolina +4, Currently: Carolina +1

Early bettors are fading the Saints after they fell on their face versus Washington in Week 1. Some online markets opened New Orleans as high as -4 but money on the home side has caused a severe line move.

“The Saints should scare some people after last week’s game,” Avello told Covers. “Their offense was OK, but that defense has always given up big points. They’re playing Carolina, who isn’t a Top 7 team but is a quality team – middle of the road. They always seem to hang around and are a scary team to give the points to.”

“I really don’t know what (bettors) are going to do with it,” laughs Avello, who currently has Saints -2.5 posted. “I don’t know how you can like New Orleans after last week.”

Minnesota Vikings at Indianapolis Colts – Open: Indianapolis +3, Currently: Indianapolis +1

This spread has come off the key number at most books – online and Nevada – and has the Colts as slight home underdogs. Indianapolis wasn’t terrible versus Chicago in Week 1 and now gets a much weaker opponent in Minnesota. The Vikings welcomed back star RB Adrian Peterson against Jacksonville but still needed overtime to top the lowly Jaguars.

“The Colts will be better, they showed that last week,” says Avello. “This could be one of those chances that they have to win one.”

“It’ll be our least-bet game of the day, that’s for sure,” he added.

Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles – Open: Philadelphia -2.5, Currently: Philadelphia -1

While most of the online and Nevada books have moved this spread down, the Wynn is currently dealing the Eagles -3 with sharp action on the opening line. Avello stands by the move and wasn’t overly impressed with the Ravens’ Week 1 win over Cincinnati.

“Joe Flacco had one of his best games ever, but his receivers were wide open the entire game,” says Avello. “I don’t know if Cincinnati wasn’t prepared or if they looked at Ray Rice to do more and keyed on him, leaving guys open. I don’t expect to see that kind of a game from (Flacco) again this week.”

Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons - Open: Total 49, Currently: Total 51

Money on the over is no surprise for Monday night games. Early action has driven this total to the key number of 51 points. Avello says the only way this total is dropping is if sharp money comes in strong on the under before game time.

“The public isn’t going to move this down, only the sharps are going to do that,” says Avello. “I think it deserves to have a total this high. Both of these teams will have no trouble scoring this season and Peyton Manning looked damned good in his first game.”
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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09/16/2012 11:27 AM
NFL

Week 2

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Ravens at Eagles: What bettors need to know
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Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 46.5)

With a road game looming against Michael Vick and the Philadelphia Eagles, it was hardly a surprise to hear Baltimore Ravens coach John Harbaugh use the term "scary good" in describing the quarterback play. The fact that Harbaugh was speaking of his own signal caller, Joe Flacco, instead of the multi-talented Vick spoke volumes of the season-opening performances of each team. Baltimore will try to make it two straight wins against the Eagles, who narrowly escaped a stunning upset at Cleveland in Week 1.

Baltimore looked like an offensive juggernaut Monday night in dismantling the Cincinnati Bengals 44-13 behind a superb effort from the oft-maligned Flacco, while Vick had to overcome one of the worst games of his career to lift Philadelphia to a 17-16 victory over the Browns. Although both teams have been touted as Super Bowl contenders, the Eagles wilted under similar great expectations a year ago and their turnover-filled opener conjured up memories of last season's 1-4 start.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Eagles -2.5, O/U 46.5.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-70s and sunny skies at Lincoln Financial Field. Winds will be light out of the north.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (1-0): Baltimore has been waiting seemingly forever for the offense to catch up with the fierce Ray Lewis-led defense. That time may have arrived. The Ravens unveiled a no-huddle attack and Flacco thrived in it, carving up one of last season's best defenses for 299 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 21-of-29 passing. Running back Ray Rice had to settle for a supporting role - albeit a stellar one - with 10 carries for 68 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Despite the absence of reigning Defensive Player of the Year Terrell Suggs, the Ravens had four sacks and forced two turnovers.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (1-0): Injuries limited Vick to a handful of plays in the preseason, and his lack of game action showed as he tied a career high with four interceptions before leading a 91-yard TD drive with 78 seconds to play. Vick heaved up a career-high 56 pass attempts despite the Eagles not trailing until the fourth quarter, reviving the second-guessing of coach Andy Reid's play-calling. Wideout Jeremy Maclin had a solid game with seven catches for 96 yards and a TD, as did running back LeSean McCoy with 110 yards on 20 carries. Philadelphia's defense limited the Brown to only 210 yards.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-0 in Ravens’ last five games in September.
* Over is 4-0 in Eagles’ last four Week 2 games.
* Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last six Week 2 games.
* Ravens are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games in September.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Ravens S Ed Reed, who returned an interception 34 yards for a TD last week to become the league's career leader for most interception return yards (1,497), is questionable with a hamstring injury.

2. Philadelphia starting WRs DeSean Jackson (hamstring) and Maclin (hip) each sat out practice Thursday.

3. Harbaugh, who was an assistant coach for 10 seasons with the Eagles before being named Ravens coach in 2008, is 11-5 against the NFC.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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09/16/2012 11:30 AM
NFL

Week 2

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Jets at Steelers: What bettors need to know
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New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5, 41.5)

Now comes the hard part for the New York Jets. It's one thing to put up 48 points – a franchise record for a season opener - against the Buffalo Bills’ defense. It’s quite another to have success against the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road – something that had eluded them up until two seasons ago. After silencing their critics - for now - with an unexpected offensive outburst, the Jets will try to validate that effort with a second straight win over the Steelers at Heinz Field on Sunday.

The Steelers, meanwhile, are seeking to bounce back from a season-opening loss to Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos and will have safety Ryan Clark and possibly linebacker James Harrison back to help. The Jets, who hope to have former University of Pittsburgh star Darrelle Revis (mild concussion) in the lineup, earned their first-ever win in the Steel City 22-17 in 2010. The Steelers had won all seven previous home matchups and have won 17 of the 21 meetings, including a 24-19 victory in the 2010 AFC Championship game. Pittsburgh hasn't started 0-2 since 2002.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Steelers -5, O/U 41.5.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-60s and sunny skies at Heinz Field. Winds will be light out of the west.

ABOUT THE JETS (1-0): The Jets’ dominating 48-28 win over the Bills was perhaps the biggest surprise of the first week, mainly because New York infamously failed to score an offensive touchdown in the first three preseason games. Much-maligned QB Mark Sanchez threw for 266 yards and three scores – two to rookie Stephen Hill – and Antonio Cromartie returned one of three interceptions for a touchdown. There were two other surprising developments from the opener: The Jets’ suspect offensive line didn’t allow a sack and Tim Tebow (five carries, 11 yards, zero pass attempts) was a non-factor. The only negative from Sunday’s win was that Revis, who’s from nearby Aliquippa, suffered a concussion after being kicked in the head by a teammate. Revis was unable to practice again Thursday and the team will make a decision about his status Saturday.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (0-1): Pittsburgh struggled against the Broncos’ no-huddle offense without Clark (sickle cell anemia) and Harrison (knee). The top-ranked defense from a season ago allowed 334 yards and the Broncos converted 5 of 9 third downs. Clark should return this week, while Harrison is questionable. The 2008 Defensive Player of the Year is still making his way back from minor knee surgery. Ben Roethlisberger (22 of 40, 245 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT), operating in Todd Haley’s new offense, was efficient at times but also threw a game-clinching pick six. As expected, the Steelers’ offensive line failed to keep Roethlisberger clean (five sacks). The running game, meanwhile, averaged just 2.9 yards per carry. Second-year back Jonathan Dwyer (nine carries, 43 yards) outplayed Isaac Redman (11 carries, 20 yards) and should get more playing time with Rashard Mendenhall still recovering from a torn ACL.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Steelers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following a straight-up loss.
* Under is 7-0 in Steelers last seven Week 2 games.
* Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last five Week 2 games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Hill, a second-round pick, is the first Jets receiver to catch two touchdowns in his debut and the first receiver to do so since former Tampa Bay tight end Alex Smith in 2005.

2. Sanchez is 39 of 62 for 403 yards and two touchdowns in two career games against Pittsburgh.

3. This will be the second trip to Pittsburgh for former Steelers wide receiver Santonio Holmes – the Super Bowl XLIII MVP. He has eight catches for 101 yards and a touchdown against his former team.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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09/16/2012 12:19 PM
Sunday, September 16

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Tampa Bay - 1:00 PM ET N.Y. Giants -7 500
N.Y. Giants - Under 43.5 500

New Orleans - 1:00 PM ET Carolina +2.5 500
Carolina - Over 52.5 500

Arizona - 1:00 PM ET Arizona +13.5 500
New England - Under 47.5 500

Minnesota - 1:00 PM ET Minnesota -3 500
Indianapolis - Under 45.5 500

Baltimore - 1:00 PM ET Philadelphia -1 500
Philadelphia - Over 46.5 500

Kansas City - 1:00 PM ET Kansas City +3 500
Buffalo - Under 45 500

Cleveland - 1:00 PM ET Cleveland +7 500
Cincinnati - Under 39 500

Houston - 1:00 PM ET Jacksonville +7 500
Jacksonville - Under 41 500

Oakland - 1:00 PM ET Miami +1 500
Miami - Under 39.5 500

Dallas - 4:05 PM ET Seattle +3 500
Seattle - Under 42.5 500

Washington - 4:05 PM ET Washington -3.5 500
St. Louis - Under 43 500

N.Y. Jets - 4:25 PM ET Pittsburgh -5 500
Pittsburgh - Under 43 500

Tennessee - 4:25 PM ET Tennessee +6.5 500
San Diego - Over 43.5 500


Back later before i head for the 9er game......
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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09/16/2012 12:30 PM
Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Sunday/Monday's six most popular picks and six least popular picks in Hilton handicapping contest, which has 700+ contestants, all of whom who pick five NFL games a week against the spread. They put up $1,500 each, so these are serious handicappers........

6) Houston Texans, 151
5) Atlanta Falcons 157
4) New England Patriots, 178
3) San Francisco 49ers, 215
2) Dallas Cowboys, 226
1) Baltimore Ravens, 227

32) Arizona Cardinals, 38
30) Buffalo Bills, 44
29) Cleveland Browns, 51
28) Detroit Lions, 74
27) Miami Dolphins, 75
26) Tennessee Titans, 78

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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09/16/2012 06:21 PM
Sunday Night:

Detroit - 8:20 PM ET San Francisco -7 500

San Francisco - Under 46 500
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09/16/2012 06:21 PM
Sunday Night:

Detroit - 8:20 PM ET San Francisco -7 500

San Francisco - Under 46 500
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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09/17/2012 05:48 PM
Books loving the Cards

September 17, 2012

The Las Vegas sports books had a winning weekend that was spurred on by a couple of big upsets, one from the college game and one from the NFL. In each case, the upset knocked down the most popular betting choices of the day, which was the root of the most popular parlays on the day.
Stanford's 21-14 victory over Southern California as a nine-point home underdog was the key to a small Saturday win. Without it, things could have been disastrous because almost everyone had USC played as the last or second-to-last leg of their parlay. With highly-ranked public favorites like Alabama, LSU, Florida State and South Carolina all covering, USC was going to be a sweet 5-teamer for a lot of bettors.

For the small few that played Stanford on the money-line, they were rewarded with a +320 payout (Bet $100 to win $320). The only other big game of the day the sports books won on was Pittsburgh beating Virginia Tech as a 10 ½-point home 'dog which paid +350 (Bet $100 to win $350) on the money-line.

Overall in college, the favorites went 22-20-3 against the spread on the regular and added board with eight of the underdogs winning outright.

Sunday turned out a little better thanks to the Arizona Cardinals beating the New England Patriots 20-18 as 13 ½-point underdogs at Foxboro. Not only were the Patriots the center-piece of the most popular parlays wagered, but they also were the most bet teaser team and some gamblers threw them in money-line parlays, which some people like to bet.

When the New Orleans Saints lost as three-point road favorites at Carolina, the second most wagered upon parlay team, the sports books immediately knew the day should turn out to be a winner, even if the Chargers, Steelers and 49ers covered later in the day, which they all did.

The biggest losses in the morning games came from the Ravens covering in a 24-23 loss at Philadelphia and the Texans easily winning 27-7 as seven-point road favorites at Jacksonville.

The books went 2-2 against the public in the afternoon games, the biggest win coming from the Rams beating the Redskins 31-28 as 3 ½-point home underdogs. The Redskins were a popular choice by both sharp and small money. While we marvel at rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III, there are plenty of bettors that are sick of him already because they've lost two straight weeks with him. Last week, the big public team was the Saints and Griffin made their bets losers. This week they jumped on the Griffin wagon and once again, they were losers.

There weren't many takers with the Titans at San Diego, and they were wise to stay away as the Chargers rolled 38-10 in perhaps the easiest win of the day, next to Buffalo's 35-17 blowout over Kansas City.

The sports books need NFL teams to be competitive on a regular basis and right now they are worrying a bit about the Titans and Jaguars after watching them for two weeks, especially the Titans. The Raiders don't look to be in that category yet and the Browns showed some life that may have bettors taking a shot with them, but how do you sell the Titans to anyone?

The day would have been outstanding had the Lions covered as seven-point underdogs at San Francisco. They came close, but fell short in a 27-19 loss. Because of it being the last game of the day that always attracts action from those that either won and are trying to press their profits, or lost and are trying to get it back, Sunday night is always a huge game that can sometimes wipe out a book's entire win from the early games. Most reports had the 49ers win taking away about 25% of what they had won from the first 13 games.

Favorites ended up going 5-7-2 ATS on the day with the OVER going 8-6. Six of the seven underdogs the covered also won outright, including five home 'dogs. The lone home underdog that didn't win was Jacksonville.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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09/17/2012 05:50 PM
Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday..........

13) WE NEED THE REGULAR REFEREES BACK!!!!!!

Was that clear enough?
12) First half of the Ram-Redskin game was a debacle; incompetent refs screwing up a game. Apparently the best refs do the primetime games, the Dallas game, and the Jet/Giant games, because they get the most media coverage. The rest of the teams? Moe, Larry and Curly are reffing.

When the network announcers bitch about the refs, you know they're bad. Those guys are usually very slow to criticize.

11) I would compare the replacement refs to when we were in high school and there was a substitute teacher; kids ran amok, doing what they want, showing little respect for the sub. A certain lawlessness is emerging on the field, a lot more chippy play in almost every game. Its not good.

Anyway, on to the action from Sunday.......
10) New Orleans is 0-2, allowing 11.5/11.6 yards/pass attempt in those two games. There have been 31 games this season; of those 62 teams, those are the two best passing games in the NFL so far this season.

NFL screwed the Saints bigtime by suspending Sean Payton for the season.

Roger Goodell is going to need a solid security detail at the Super Bowl in February. Did I mention its in New Orleans?

9) Justin Tucker is a tremendous kicker for the Ravens; he made kicks of 56-51-48 yards at Philly Sunday. Very powerful leg.

8) Five teams who started rookie QBs turned ball over 15 times last week, only twice this week. After two weeks, they're 5-5 against spread.

7) I'm guessing lot of knockout pools took a serious hit when Patriots got knocked off by Arizona. Not often a 13-point underdog wins in the NFL.

6) In case you keep track of stuff like this, NFC West teams are 6-0 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC East/North teams are combined 2-10.

5) Last week, there were 140 plays from scrimmage of 20+ yards, an average of 4.38 per team; this week so far, there have been 138, an average of 4.6 per team. Teams don't do as much during exhibition games anymore, so they're getting their offenses into gear during the actual games.

4) Last week, Giants had three explosive plays, all on 3rd down plays; against Tampa Bay Sunday, they had nine, with six of the nine coming on first down. If they let Eli Manning be more aggressive, they'd score a lot more points. Imagine that.......what a concept!!! Trying to score!!!

3) Redskins had a punt blocked for second week in row; this almost never happens in the NFL, unless there's an injury to the long snapper. Wouldn't be surprised if Washington changed punters this week.

2) Ugly start to the game on special teams for Dallas; they fumble the opening kickoff, Seattle kicks a FG. Dallas goes 3-and-out, Seahawks block the punt and go ahead 10-0, without having done a damn thing on offense.

1) If you were picking a Super Bowl matchup right this second, Houston-San Francisco would make a lot of sense. Thats not how it works, though.

Did I mention we need the regular refs back. Please?!?!?!
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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09/17/2012 05:50 PM
Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday..........

13) WE NEED THE REGULAR REFEREES BACK!!!!!!

Was that clear enough?
12) First half of the Ram-Redskin game was a debacle; incompetent refs screwing up a game. Apparently the best refs do the primetime games, the Dallas game, and the Jet/Giant games, because they get the most media coverage. The rest of the teams? Moe, Larry and Curly are reffing.

When the network announcers bitch about the refs, you know they're bad. Those guys are usually very slow to criticize.

11) I would compare the replacement refs to when we were in high school and there was a substitute teacher; kids ran amok, doing what they want, showing little respect for the sub. A certain lawlessness is emerging on the field, a lot more chippy play in almost every game. Its not good.

Anyway, on to the action from Sunday.......
10) New Orleans is 0-2, allowing 11.5/11.6 yards/pass attempt in those two games. There have been 31 games this season; of those 62 teams, those are the two best passing games in the NFL so far this season.

NFL screwed the Saints bigtime by suspending Sean Payton for the season.

Roger Goodell is going to need a solid security detail at the Super Bowl in February. Did I mention its in New Orleans?

9) Justin Tucker is a tremendous kicker for the Ravens; he made kicks of 56-51-48 yards at Philly Sunday. Very powerful leg.

8) Five teams who started rookie QBs turned ball over 15 times last week, only twice this week. After two weeks, they're 5-5 against spread.

7) I'm guessing lot of knockout pools took a serious hit when Patriots got knocked off by Arizona. Not often a 13-point underdog wins in the NFL.

6) In case you keep track of stuff like this, NFC West teams are 6-0 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC East/North teams are combined 2-10.

5) Last week, there were 140 plays from scrimmage of 20+ yards, an average of 4.38 per team; this week so far, there have been 138, an average of 4.6 per team. Teams don't do as much during exhibition games anymore, so they're getting their offenses into gear during the actual games.

4) Last week, Giants had three explosive plays, all on 3rd down plays; against Tampa Bay Sunday, they had nine, with six of the nine coming on first down. If they let Eli Manning be more aggressive, they'd score a lot more points. Imagine that.......what a concept!!! Trying to score!!!

3) Redskins had a punt blocked for second week in row; this almost never happens in the NFL, unless there's an injury to the long snapper. Wouldn't be surprised if Washington changed punters this week.

2) Ugly start to the game on special teams for Dallas; they fumble the opening kickoff, Seattle kicks a FG. Dallas goes 3-and-out, Seahawks block the punt and go ahead 10-0, without having done a damn thing on offense.

1) If you were picking a Super Bowl matchup right this second, Houston-San Francisco would make a lot of sense. Thats not how it works, though.

Did I mention we need the regular refs back. Please?!?!?!
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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