cnotes Posts:24861 Followers:33
09/14/2012 08:24 PM

NFL Week 2 Preview: Jets at Steelers

NEW YORK JETS (1-0)

at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (0-1)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT
Line: Pittsburgh -5½, Total: 41½

The Jets look to build on their surprising offensive success in Week 1 when they go on the road to face the Steelers’ aging defense on Sunday afternoon.

Gang Green definitely got an assist from four Buffalo turnovers in their opener, but their offense still managed four touchdowns (after scoring only one in the preseason). Pittsburgh is coming off its second straight loss dating to last season, both in Denver. FS Ryan Clark returns for Week 2, and Pittsburgh could also have OLB James Harrison (knee) back as well. The Steelers once again have a rash of injuries across the offensive line, though the Jets’ middling pass rush didn’t record a sack on 32 Ryan Fitzpatrick drop backs last week.

Can the Steelers avoid an 0-2 hole with a convincing win over the Jets? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Jets QB Mark Sanchez had a tremendous game to begin the 2012 season, completing 19-of-27 passes for 266 yards, 3 TD and 1 INT. This will be the third time Sanchez faces the Pittsburgh defense. In 2010, he led his Jets to a 22-17 win in the Steel City, completing 19-of-29 passes for 170 yards, while rushing for a touchdown. The teams met again in the AFC Championship that year, with Sanchez nearly bringing his club back from a 24-0 deficit, by throwing two touchdown passes as part of 233 yards in a 24-19 loss. New York will try to run the football, even using backup QB Tim Tebow in the wildcat formation, but the Jets have gained just 176 yards on 49 carries (3.6 YPC) in the past two meetings with Pittsburgh. New York rushed for only 3.3 YPC in last week’s win over Buffalo, but Shonn Greene had an adequate 94 yards on 27 carries (3.5 YPC) and a touchdown. Defensively, the Jets will try to build upon their four turnovers forced against the Bills. Although they will probably have the services of CB Darrelle Revis (concussion), DT Sione Po’uha (back) and S Eric Smith (knee) are both not likely to play.

The Steelers also have some injuries of concern, with RB Jonathan Dwyer (foot) and OLs Ramon Foster (eye) and Marcus Gilbert (knee) all questionable for this game. QB Ben Roethlisberger played terribly in that 2011 AFC Championship win over the Jets, completing just 10-of-19 passes for 133 yards, 0 TD and 2 INT. He wasn’t spectacular in the season-opening loss to Denver either, completing just 22-of-40 passes for 245 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT. But because the Steelers’ ground game is in bad shape with Dwyer, Isaac Redman (groin) and Rashard Mendenhall (torn ACL recovery) not close to 100 percent, the game plan will probably call for a pass-heavy offense. Defensively, getting star OLB James Harrison back will help put the pressure on Sanchez. Pittsburgh sacked Peyton Manning twice last week, but the new Broncos QB burned them for 253 passing yards and two touchdowns.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24861 Followers:33
09/14/2012 08:26 PM

NFL Week 2 Preview: Ravens at Eagles

BALTIMORE RAVENS (1-0)

at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (1-0)


Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -2½, Total: 46½

After a struggle in Cleveland, the Eagles will look to straighten things out when they host the Ravens on Sunday afternoon.

The Browns proved to have a surprisingly fast defense in Week 1, forcing five Philly turnovers. The Eagles still managed 456 yards of offense, including 91 on a game-winning drive in the final two minutes. Baltimore’s D is big and physical, but may not match up quite as well with the Eagles’ speed. The Ravens might have the offense to keep up with Philly, after they’ve adopted a no-huddle, more up-tempo attack this season, which resulted in a 44-13 drubbing of the Bengals on Monday night.

Which team will improve to 2-0 on the season? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Ravens QB Joe Flacco had a huge performance on Monday night, completing 21-of-29 passes for 299 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT. The no-huddle offense seemed to fluster the Bengals, as Baltimore scored on seven of its nine full drives. Flacco completed multiple passes to seven different teammates, but targeted TE Dennis Pitta nine teams, completing five of those passes for 73 yards. The Ravens’ ground game was also clicking with 122 yards on just 23 carries (5.3 YPC). Ray Rice rumbled for 68 yards and two touchdowns, needing only 10 carries to do so. Baltimore’s defense has a new coordinator in Dean Pees, but some familiar faces led the way in Week 1. DT Haloti Ngata notched two sacks, LB Ray Lewis had 14 tackles (11 solo) and one sack, while S Ed Reed had an interception return for a touchdown. Reed scored on a 107-yard INT return the last time the Ravens faced the Eagles, as part of a 36-7 blowout win back in 2008. The one negative for the Baltimore defense in Week 1 was allowing Cincinnati to run for 129 yards on 28 carries (4.6 YPC), which could be a problem with the talented ball carriers for Philadelphia.

The Eagles know they can move the football, but they’ll have a much harder time if WR Jeremy Maclin (hip flexor) doesn’t play. Maclin was targeted 14 times on Sunday, catching half of those passes for 96 yards and a touchdown. Even with QB Michael Vick throwing the football 56 times against the Browns (career-high-tying 4 INT), the Eagles still rushed the ball 30 times, picking up 150 yards. McCoy had 110 of those on his 20 carries and could get even more action if Maclin can’t play. Philly’s defense came out aggressive against rookie QB Brandon Weeden and picked off four of his passes and saddled him with a 5.1 QB rating (12-for-35, 118 yds, 0 TD, 4 INT). Cleveland gained just 210 yards and 3.6 yards per play for the afternoon.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24861 Followers:33
09/14/2012 08:27 PM

NFL Week 2 Preview: Lions at 49ers

DETROIT LIONS (1-0)

at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (1-0)


Kickoff: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: San Francisco -6½, Total: 46

After knocking off the Packers in Week 1, the 49ers meet another playoff team when they host the Lions on Sunday night.

The lasting image from the Niners’ win in Detroit last October was the head coaches jawing on the way to the locker room. It overshadowed an incredibly tight game. The Lions had the edge in turnovers (2-0) and were outgained by only four yards (314-310), but San Francisco ran all over them (203 yards) and shut down two potential game-winning drives in the final minutes. This time the game will be in San Francisco, where the 49ers were dominant a year ago. They looked as good as ever in last week’s win in Green Bay, while the Lions needed last-second heroics just to knock off the lowly Rams at home.

Can the 49ers win comfortably for the second straight week? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Lions QB Matthew Stafford had a mistake-filled Week 1 (three interceptions), but he still finished with 355 passing yards and a game-winning TD pass to Kevin Smith with 10 seconds left. Stafford targeted five players at least five times each, led by WR Calvin Johnson (6 rec, 111 yds) and TE Brandon Pettigrew (5 rec, 77 yds). Detroit actually did a decent job running the football with 4.6 yards per carry, as Smith rushed 13 times for 62 yards (4.8 YPC) and 1 TD. On the other side of the ball, the Lions held St. Louis to 250 total yards and just 3.0 yards per carry. However, San Francisco’s rushing offense will present a much greater challenge for this Detroit team that has lost 11 straight road trips to San Francisco.

Niners QB Alex Smith came out throwing in Week 1, connecting on 20-of-26 passes for 211 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT. The one negative is that he was sacked four times. Despite Smith’s heroics, the star of the upset win in Green Bay was RB Frank Gore who rushed for 112 yards on just 16 carries (7.0 YPC) including a 23-yard TD run in the fourth quarter. Gore has also run all over Detroit in his career. In four games (all 49ers wins), he has 501 rushing yards (5.5 YPC) and 4 TD, while adding 132 more yards on 12 receptions. The 49ers defense has been outstanding in the past eight games in this series, holding Detroit to less than 20 points in each contest.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24861 Followers:33
09/14/2012 08:28 PM

NFL Week 2 Preview: Titans at Chargers

TENNESSEE TITANS (0-1)

at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (1-0)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT
Line: San Diego -6, Total: 43

The Chargers look to retain their dominance over the Titans when the two teams meet Sunday afternoon at San Diego.

Since relocating from Houston to Tennessee, the Titans are 0-7 in this series, losing those games by a combined 206-96 margin. Tennessee will get top WR Kenny Britt back from a one-game suspension in some capacity, though he will not play full-time coming off multiple knee surgeries. Meanwhile, RB Chris Johnson is coming off the worst game of his career (11 carries, four yards against New England). San Diego has question marks of its own and historically starts slow. And with LT Jared Gaither (back) likely out again, the Chargers could have trouble keeping Philip Rivers upright. But they could have starting RB Ryan Mathews (shoulder) back for this one, which would be a big help to a running game that struggled to a paltry 32 yards in the Monday night win in Oakland.

Will the Chargers roll past the Titans yet again? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Chris Johnson is coming off a horrible game versus New England, but he’s certainly capable of carving up San Diego with 261 total yards and 2 TD in two career games versus the Chargers. With backup RB Javon Ringer (elbow infection) questionable, the Titans will need to ride Johnson for most of the afternoon. Jake Locker injured his left shoulder in last week’s loss, but will probably be able to start this game. He was 23-of-32 for 229 yards (7.2 YPA), 1 TD and 1 INT against the Patriots, while backup Matt Hasselbeck was 6-of-11 for 43 yards (3.9 YPA), 0 TD and 0 INT. Hasselbeck is actually 4-1 in his career versus San Diego, but has thrown just 3 TD and 5 INT in these five meetings. Whoever takes the snaps will finally have talented WR Kenny Britt as an option in the passing game, but he will be limited to approximately 25 snaps. Starting WR Nate Washington (leg) is also expected to play on Sunday. Defensively, the Titans should have an easier time with a San Diego offense that doesn’t measure up to New England’s. However, the Chargers rolled up 456 yards of offense when these teams last met in 2010, a 33-25 San Diego victory.

Chargers QB Philip Rivers is 4-0 in his career versus Tennessee, completing 68% of his passes for 1,032 yards (258 YPG), 7 TD and 3 INT. He also looked pretty strong in the opener in Oakland, completing 24-of-33 throws for 231 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT. Only three of those passes went for more than 20 yards though, as San Diego wide receivers caught a total of eight passes. Star TE Antonio Gates (ribs) has been limited in practice this week, but is expected to start. Mathews thinks he’ll be able to play, but head coach Norv Turner has not yet made a decision on his playing status. The three San Diego running backs combined for 22 yards on 17 carries last week, as neither Curtis Brinkley (10 rush, 12 yds), Ronnie Brown (5 rush, 5 yds) or Le’Ron McClain (2 rush, 5 yds) gained more than six yards on any carry. San Diego’s run-stop unit was top-notch in Week 1 though, holding Oakland to 45 yards on 20 attempts (2.3 YPC). That was the first game for new defensive coordinator John Pagano.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24861 Followers:33
09/14/2012 08:30 PM

NFL Week 2 Preview: Broncos at Falcons

DENVER BRONCOS (1-0)

at ATLANTA FALCONS (1-0)


Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Atlanta -3, Total: 51

Two high-flying offenses look to continue their air attacks for another week when the Broncos visit the Falcons on Monday night.

Peyton Manning makes his first road start as Denver’s quarterback, but the bigger change among these teams seems to be Atlanta’s offensive philosophy. In Week 1,the Falcons jumped all over the Chiefs in K.C. with an aggressive downfield passing attack. QB Matt Ryan threw for 299 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT with a 136.4 passer rating. Atlanta did have some issues though, as it allowed 152 rushing yards to the Chiefs and lost top CB Brent Grimes to a season-ending injury. The Broncos are coming off a game in which Manning utilized a no-huddle offense to come back and beat the Steelers.

Who will win this expected shootout between the Broncos and Falcons? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Monday will be Peyton Manning’s only indoor game of 2012, a climate in which he has been tremendous in his career. In 111 dome games, Manning has averaged 262 passing YPG with 230 TD and just 97 INT. He has also cleaned up on NFC South opponents in his career, going 7-1 with 2,351 passing yards (8.9 YPA), 24 TD and 4 INT. Manning did a great job spreading the wealth last Sunday night, as WR Demaryius Thomas, WR Eric Decker and TE Jacob Tamme caught five passes each. The running game had its moments against Pittsburgh’s top-ranked yardage and scoring defense from a year ago, grinding out 94 yards on 27 carries (3.5 YPC). Defensively, Denver’s run-stop unit stifled the Steelers (75 yards on 26 carries), and should be able to handle Atlanta’s less-than-stellar ground game.

Falcons QB Matt Ryan completed multiple passes to five different receivers in Week 1, connecting with WR Julio Jones for two of his touchdowns and finding TE Tony Gonzalez for the other score. None of the running backs could get anything going, as Michael Turner (11 rush, 32 yds), Jacquizz Rodgers (7 rush, 22 yds) and Jason Snelling (2 rush, 5 yds) were all bottled up against the Chiefs. Atlanta’s defense also showed some holes, allowing 393 total yards (241 passing, 152 rushing) despite forcing three turnovers. Since 1994, the Falcons have lost five of six meetings (3-3 ATS), including Super Bowl XXXIII following the 1998 season.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24861 Followers:33
09/14/2012 08:34 PM

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

Some NFL knowledge, with Week 2 bearing down on us........

-- Carolina covered once in its last eight divisional home games.

-- Bucs are 8-2 in last 10 games as non-diviional road underdog.

-- Seahawks covered five of their last six tries as home underdog.

-- Cowboys are 1-8 vs spread in game following their last nine wins.

-- Vikings are 3-10-1 vs spread in last 14 games at AFC squads.

-- 49ers are 9-0-1 against spread in their last ten home games.


*******


Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Things I'm looking for this weekend........

13) The RGIII bandwagon rolls into St Louis, as Robert Griffin faces the team that got three #1 picks and a #2 pick in exchange for the draft pick Washington used to select the Baylor QB. Rams will play defense better than a rudderless New Orleans team that is still learning Steve Spagnuolo’s system. Jones Dome will be lot quieter than the Superdome was.

12) Last time Tennessee was favored to beat Florida was 2004; second tough road game in row for Gators, who came from behind to beat the Texas Aggies last week.

11) Tampa Bay Rays visit the Bronx this weekend, in a surprisingly big series, for both sides. Three weeks to go in the baseball season, and the playoff picture is still very unclear, especially in the AL.

10) Michael Vick played poorly in the Dawg Pound last week; he needs to play better against a Raven team that’s covered just twice in last 10 games following an appearance on Monday Night Football.

9) Pitt has already lost to Youngstown/Cincinnati, they’re an 11-point home dog to Virginia Tech this week. Not good for a team with a senior QB, even if they are on their 4th head coach in the last three years.

8) Has anyone asked if Stephen Strasburg will have an innings limit again next year? The actual Tommy John threw 200+ innings the first five years after he had the first TJ surgery, but he was in his 30’s then.

7) NFL schedule makers put Denver on at night five times in season’s first eight weeks; they should hit ratings gold in Atlanta Monday night, two good ballclubs.

6) Notre Dame hung 50 points on Navy in Ireland, now after a week off, the Middies visit troubled Penn State, which had another starter defect this week. Tough to prepare for Navy’s option attack in less than a week.

5) Phillies/Brewers are both charging in NL Wild Card race. Two of the three teams they’re chasing, Cardinals/Dodgers have a 4-game series with each other this weekend. The charging teams need a Card-Dodger split this weekend, and obviouly, they need to keep winning themselves.

4) Dolphins/Colts both have winnable games at home; since both are starting rookie QBs, there’s no guarantees they’ll have many more winnable games the rest of the year, especially the Dolphins, who are catching a Raider team in a brutal spot, making a cross country flight after playing the late game Monday night.

3) One of the stranger things this weekend will be arrogant Bronx Bomber fans rooting for the A’s, since the Orioles are in Oakland for three games. A’s will be in the Bronx next weekend, as part of a dicey Detroit-Bronx-Texas road trip.

2) Utah-BYU has always been a bitter rivalry, but with Utes going to Pac-12 and BYU becoming independent, it just isn’t the same. Now comes word Utah QB Jordan Wynn has given up football after suffering another shoulder injury last week. Could be a long year for the Utes.

1) Its been 10 years since the Steelers started a season 0-2; they’ll need to protect Big Ben Sunday to beat the Jets and even their record. Hard to tell how much off last week’s 48-28 Jet win was about the Jets and how much was about the woeful Buffalo Bills.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24861 Followers:33
09/14/2012 08:40 PM

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

Some NFL knowledge, with Week 2 bearing down on us........

-- Carolina covered once in its last eight divisional home games.

-- Bucs are 8-2 in last 10 games as non-diviional road underdog.

-- Seahawks covered five of their last six tries as home underdog.

-- Cowboys are 1-8 vs spread in game following their last nine wins.

-- Vikings are 3-10-1 vs spread in last 14 games at AFC squads.

-- 49ers are 9-0-1 against spread in their last ten home games.


*******


Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Things I'm looking for this weekend........

13) The RGIII bandwagon rolls into St Louis, as Robert Griffin faces the team that got three #1 picks and a #2 pick in exchange for the draft pick Washington used to select the Baylor QB. Rams will play defense better than a rudderless New Orleans team that is still learning Steve Spagnuolo’s system. Jones Dome will be lot quieter than the Superdome was.

12) Last time Tennessee was favored to beat Florida was 2004; second tough road game in row for Gators, who came from behind to beat the Texas Aggies last week.

11) Tampa Bay Rays visit the Bronx this weekend, in a surprisingly big series, for both sides. Three weeks to go in the baseball season, and the playoff picture is still very unclear, especially in the AL.

10) Michael Vick played poorly in the Dawg Pound last week; he needs to play better against a Raven team that’s covered just twice in last 10 games following an appearance on Monday Night Football.

9) Pitt has already lost to Youngstown/Cincinnati, they’re an 11-point home dog to Virginia Tech this week. Not good for a team with a senior QB, even if they are on their 4th head coach in the last three years.

8) Has anyone asked if Stephen Strasburg will have an innings limit again next year? The actual Tommy John threw 200+ innings the first five years after he had the first TJ surgery, but he was in his 30’s then.

7) NFL schedule makers put Denver on at night five times in season’s first eight weeks; they should hit ratings gold in Atlanta Monday night, two good ballclubs.

6) Notre Dame hung 50 points on Navy in Ireland, now after a week off, the Middies visit troubled Penn State, which had another starter defect this week. Tough to prepare for Navy’s option attack in less than a week.

5) Phillies/Brewers are both charging in NL Wild Card race. Two of the three teams they’re chasing, Cardinals/Dodgers have a 4-game series with each other this weekend. The charging teams need a Card-Dodger split this weekend, and obviouly, they need to keep winning themselves.

4) Dolphins/Colts both have winnable games at home; since both are starting rookie QBs, there’s no guarantees they’ll have many more winnable games the rest of the year, especially the Dolphins, who are catching a Raider team in a brutal spot, making a cross country flight after playing the late game Monday night.

3) One of the stranger things this weekend will be arrogant Bronx Bomber fans rooting for the A’s, since the Orioles are in Oakland for three games. A’s will be in the Bronx next weekend, as part of a dicey Detroit-Bronx-Texas road trip.

2) Utah-BYU has always been a bitter rivalry, but with Utes going to Pac-12 and BYU becoming independent, it just isn’t the same. Now comes word Utah QB Jordan Wynn has given up football after suffering another shoulder injury last week. Could be a long year for the Utes.

1) Its been 10 years since the Steelers started a season 0-2; they’ll need to protect Big Ben Sunday to beat the Jets and even their record. Hard to tell how much off last week’s 48-28 Jet win was about the Jets and how much was about the woeful Buffalo Bills.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24861 Followers:33
09/14/2012 08:40 PM

Top 5 NFL Trends

HOU
JAC HOU are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

HOU
JAC HOU are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

HOU
JAC Under is 5-0-1 in JAC last 6 vs. AFC South.

HOU
JAC HOU are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.

NO
CAR Over is 6-0 in NO last 6 games overall.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24861 Followers:33
09/16/2012 12:38 AM

Total Talk - Week 2

September 15, 2012

Week 1 Recap

The scoreboard operators were busy last week as a combined 791 points were scored in Week 1. That was the most for an opening week and second most in NFL history. In case you're wondering, the most points scored in a week were 837, which occurred in Week 12 of the 2008 campaign.

Despite the offensive outbursts, the 'over' only went 9-7 in Week 1 and with a couple different bounces, the 'under' could've came out on top. Some games that probably should've stayed 'under' were the Steelers-Colts, Jaguars-Vikings and 49ers-Packers.

As far as awarding the "Bad Beat" of the week, we'll go with the first-half 'under' between the Texans and Dolphins. Most shops closed the total at 21 ½ and it looked like a clear-cut lock with the score tied 3-3 with less than two minutes left in the second. Sure enough, Houston turned three turnovers into three touchdowns and led 24-3 at the break. Those not toying with the halftime wager were fortunate to see 13 points scored in the final two quarters, which helped the game go 'under' the closing number of 41.

Overtime Rules

We mentioned these changes the last two years and while it may or may not matter, it's good to know that you can still cash a late ticket or even worse, lose. From the NFL and other outlets -- each squad will have at least one possession in overtime unless the team that wins the overtime coin flip scores a touchdown on its initial possession. If the team that receives the ball first connects on a field goal, the other team will get a chance to match that score or best it with a TD. If no one scores during the first two possessions of overtime, the game ends automatically on the next score. Should the team with the ball first be forced to punt, or is forced into a turnover, the game reverts to sudden death.

Keep in mind that this was supposed to be for the playoffs only, but the change is now effective for the regular season as well. We first saw the rule come into play last year when Denver stopped Pittsburgh 29-23 in OT of the Wild Card game. Last week, Minnesota and Jacksonville went into overtime. The Vikings scored a field goal on their first possession and the Jaguars couldn't match the three points or score a touchdown, so the game ended and nothing mattered.

Even though it seems impossible, you could see up to 12 points scored in the extra session. How? If Team A scores 3, then Team B matches with 3. The game then heads to the regular season OT format, which could see either Team A or B win the game with a field goal or touchdown. Imagine that bad beat!

Become familiar with it folks!

Line Moves

Personally, I've had the most success following line moves with CRIS, who isn't afraid to take serious action. For this section, that's the outfit that we're going to follow this season.

As of Saturday evening, here are the totals that have been adjusted by 1 ½ points or more.

-- Minnesota at Indianapolis: Opened at 44 ½ and has jumped to 46
-- Baltimore at Philadelphia: Opened at 43 ½ and has jumped up to 46
-- Cleveland at Cincinnati: Opened at 40 and has dropped to 38
-- Tennessee at San Diego: Opened at 44 and has dropped to 42 ½
-- Denver at Atlanta: Opened at 49 and has jumped to 51

Divisional Battles

Only four of the 16 games in Week 2 are divisional battles.

Chicago at Green Bay: The Packers beat the Bears 23-10 on Thursday, and the game never threatened the closing number of 50 ½-points. Including this outcome, nine of the last 10 games have stayed 'under' the number. These two meet again on Dec. 16 from Soldier Field and one would expect to see a total in the forties.

New Orleans at Carolina: Last season these two teams saw totals of 51 and 54 points and for the first meeting between the pair this year, the number is hovering between 51 and 52. The 'over' cashed in both games last season as the teams combined for 57 (30-27) and 62 point s (45-17), which were both victories for the Saints. Despite looking sloppy last week, New Orleans still managed to put up 30 points. The problem with the Saints is their defense and it was evident last week, giving up 40 points to the Redskins and a rookie quarterback. Offensively, Carolina looked dreadful in its 16-10 road loss to Tampa Bay. The Panthers did watch the 'over' go 5-3 at home last season but that was aided by a defense that gave up 20-plus points in six of eight at Bank of America Stadium. This year's unit is now healthier and it sort of showed last week versus the Bucs. Unfortunately, the Panthers' offense is hurting and might be without Jonathan Stewart (ankle) again, plus WR Steve Smith (knee) is 'questionable.'

Cleveland at Cincinnati: This game has the lowest total (38) on the board and it's understandable why the early action knocked the number down. Neither of the two teams has a large stable of playmakers on offense and it certainly showed in the first week of the season. The Bengals posted 13 in a road loss to Baltimore while Cleveland scored 16 in a tight setback to Philadelphia. Even though you could be looking at an ugly game, you have to be careful with the low number here. In 2011, the two regular season matchups had similar totals (36.5, 38.5) and they both went 'over' the number, but barely. Cincinnati posted 27-17 and 23-20 wins, the latter of the two coming at home.

Houston at Jacksonville: Seems like a low total (41) for these teams, but the two regular season matchups in 2011 did go 'under' with a combined 38 (24-13) and 33 points (20-13) posted, both Houston victories. The Jaguars did move the ball well against the Vikings and they managed to get five scores, unfortunately three of them were field goals and two were less than 30 yards. The Texans had six scores last week, matching three field goals with three touchdowns in just 12 possessions.

Fearless Predictions

We took off the first week of the season so we can get a better feel of the league and even though we're in Week 2, you should still tread lightly and not read into all of the early outcomes. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!

Best Over: Houston-Jacksonville 41

Best Under: Detroit-San Francisco 46.5

Best Team Total: Over Jaguars 17

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 32 Houston-Jacksonville
Under 48.5 Cleveland-Cincinnati
Under 55 Detroit-San Francisco

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24861 Followers:33
09/16/2012 12:55 AM


NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 2

Sunday, Monday Games

Bucs (1-0) @ Giants (0-1)—Schiano’s first road game as Bucs’ HC brings him back to New Jersey, where he coached Rutgers for 12 years; both his coordinators coached for Giants, DC Sheridan (’05-’09), OC Sullivan (’04-’11). Much like Green Bay, Giants can’t afford to start year with two home losses; they allowed Dallas to average 9.4 yards/pass attempt in opening loss. Big Blue was only NFL team not to gain 20+ yards on any 1st/2nd down play last week; all three of their explosive plays came on 3rd downs. Bucs held Carolina to 10 yards rushing last week, allowed them to convert only twice on 10 third downs on stormy day. Tampa Bay won its last two road openers, but is 3-5 vs spread in last eight, all as underdog. 14 of their last 19 road openers stayed under total, but only one of last four. Average total in last eight series meetings, 24.4, with Giants winning last three by average score of 22-6.

Cardinals (1-0) @ Patriots (1-0)—Arizona lost last two visits here, 31-0/47-7; they come in off high after stopping Seattle in red zone at end of 20-16 win in home opener. Looks like Kolb will get start at QB here, after starter Skelton got hurt (high ankle sprain) with Cardinals down 16-13; Kolb then directed winning TD drive. Patriots ran ball for 162 yards last week, passed for 228, unusually good balance for them. Arizona won three of last four road openers, covering all four, after 0-6 skid (1-4-1 vs spread) before that. Redbirds are 9-6-1 vs spread in last 16 tries as an underdog in road openers, with five of last six staying under total. Patriots won last 10 home openers (6-3-1 vs spread), with eight of the ten games going over total; they covered last three home openers that weren’t in Week 1. This is first time since ’00 they host an NFC team in a home opener.

Vikings (1-0) @ Colts (0-1)—Indy’s post-Manning era got off to fast start when defense scored in first 4:00 last week, but they wound up giving up 41 points, NFL-high nine plays of 20+ yards. Colts turned ball over five times, converted just 2 of 10 on 3rd down in rough debut for team with new coach, new QB, new beginning. Vikings rallied to win in OT last week, kicking FGs on four of last five drives, including game-tying 55-yarder. Home team won nine of last ten series games; Vikings lost 31-10/31-28 in two visits here, but Indy had different QB then. Not sure how much these trends mean for them, but Colts are 3-7 in last ten home openers not started by now-departed Manning. Vikes lost six of last eight road openers; since ’88, they’re 1-8 vs spread as favorite in road openers. Four of Indy’s last six home openers went over total; six of Vikings’ last eight road openers stayed under.

Saints (0-1) @ Panthers (0-1)— Takes time to learn Spagnuolo’s defense; New Orleans was riddled by rookie QB RGIII in home opener, giving up 11.5 yards/pass attempt, but they’ve won last four games vs division rival Panthers, scoring 34-30-45 points in last three meetings, winning 34-3/30-27 in last two visits here. Saints are 9-5 vs spread in last 14 road openers (two of five losses were Thursday games)- their last four road openers went over (average total in last five, 59.4). Since ’88, NO is 2-4 vs spread as road favorite in road openers. Panthers ran ball for only 10 yards in opening loss on stormy day in Tampa; Carolina is 4-13 in home openers, 1-7 in last eight, 4-3 vs spread as underdogs. Over is 3-1-1 in last five, after under was 10-2 in their first 12. Underdogs are 13-3-1 vs spread in Panthers’ home openers.

Chiefs (0-1) @ Bills (0-1)— Buffalo won four of last five series games, crushing Chiefs 41-7 in Arrowhead LY; KC is making first visit here since ’05- they lost last five trips to Orchard Park by average of 19 points (last win here, ’86). Kansas City lost five of last six road openers, losing 48-3 (+7.5) in Detroit LY; only last 15 years, they’re 4-7 vs spread as an underdog in road openers. Buffalo is 4-7 in last 11 season openers, but covered six of last seven; since ’92, they’re 10-5 as favorite in home openers. Both teams gave up 40+ points in losses last week; Chiefs turned ball over three times on 11 plays after missing game-tying FG in 3rd quarter of 40-24 home loss. Bills gave up a TD on offense, one on special teams; none of Jets’ four TD drives was longer than 61 yards. Four of their last six home openers went over the total; five of Chiefs’ last seven road openers stayed under.

Ravens (1-0) @ Eagles (1-0)-- Short week for Raven squad that sported a wide open passing game in win over division rivals Monday; they've lost eight of last 11 road openers, including 26-12 debacle at Tennessee LY, after they crushed Steelers 35-7 in opener. Vick threw four picks in dreadful performance Sunday at Cleveland, but drove team 91 yards for win when it mattered most. Eagles won despite losing field position by 14 yards; that doesn't happen whole lot. Baltimore has covered six of last eight as underdog in road opener, which they are here. Average total in last three series games is 29.3. Four of Ravens' last five road openers went over. Philly lost five of its last six home openers, with four of last five staying under total; since ’88, Eagles are 7-10 against spread as favorite in home opener, 2-4-1 as dog.

Raiders (0-1) @ Dolphins (0-1)-- Very short week and cross country trip for Raiders, who trailed 10-6 Monday night before injury to long snapper pointed game in San Diego's favor. Miami won three in row and nine of last 11 series games, with Raiders losing six of last seven visits here, with four of six losses by 6 or less points. Over last 16 years, Oakland is 5-11 vs spread in Week 1, but they’ve won three of last four road openers, covering four of last five; over is 9-3-1 in its last 13 road openers. Dolphins are 8-30 vs spread in last 38 games as a home favorite; they've lost six in row and eight of last nine home openers, losing last six by average score of 28-18 (0-6 vs spread), with four of last five home openers going over total. Since ’93, Miami is 1-7 vs spread in home openers that were not in Week 1.

Browns (0-1) @ Bengals (0-1)— Cincinnati won last three series games, by 2-10-3 points; four of last six series games were decided by three or less points. Browns lost seven of last eight visits here, losing last two trips here by total of 5 points. Cleveland is 1-5 in last six road openers, after winning four of first seven; favorites are 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine road openers, with eight of last 11 going over total. Browns had Eagles down 16-10 after picking Vick off four times in opener last week, but they let him drive 91 yards for winning TD in last 2:00. Short week for Bengals after Monday night’s beating in Baltimore. Cincy lost three of its last four home openers, scoring a dismal 9.3 ppg; they covered just three of last 12 as a favorite in home openers, which they are here. Seven of Cincy’s last nine home openers stayed under total. Cleveland is 8-5 vs spread in last 13 games as road dog in divisional games.

Texans (1-0) @ Jaguars (0-1)-- Home teams won eight of last ten series games, with Texans losing five of last seven visits here; Houston is 12-6-1 vs spread as a favorite last 2+ years, 5-2 on road. Jaguars won 17 of 27 (63%) plays on 3rd down at Minnesota last week, but couldn't stop Vikings at end of game and lost in OT. Since '07, Jax is 6-10 vs spread as a home dog, 3-6 in divisional games. Houston won last three road openers (scored 34-30-23 points) after losing five of first seven; they won 30-27 (-3)/23-13 (-3) as favorites in last two road openers, first two times they’ve been favored in one. Seven of their last nine road openers went over the total. Jaguars are 4-3 in last seven home openers, winning last two 24-17/16-14; they actually won six of their first seven home openers, are 4-2 as underdogs in a home opener. Under is 11-5-1 in all 17 of their home openers.

Cowboys (1-0) @ Seahawks (0-1)— Seattle won/covered eight of its last nine home openers, winning last three by combined score of 72-16, but they've lost last three games with Cowboys, all by 10+ points, but all three of those were in Texas. Pokes lost three of last four visits here, with last win 43-39 back in '84. Dallas had four extra days to rest/prepare after winning its opener in Swamp; How many times will ESPN show Romo botching snap on kick in '06 playoff game played here? Home side won last five series games; Dallas is 3-3 here, 1-3 in last four visits, with last win 43-39 in ’04.Since ’88, 2-4 vs spread as dog in Seattle's home openers. Under is 19-5 in their last 24 home openers, 2-3 in last five. Seattle had only one TD on four red zone drives last week, lost 20-16 in Arizona despite 10-yard edge in field position. Under is 9-1-1 in Seahawks’ last 11 home openers.

Redskins (1-0) @ Rams (0-1)—RGIII bandwagon has gotten very crowded very quickly; Rams are team that traded its pick to Washington so they could draft him. Skins averaged 11.5 yards/pass attempt last week in Superdome, #1 figure in NFL, but don't forget, Saints are learning new defense and without a head coach. St Louis is 3-2 vs Skins last six years; Rams haven’t held edge over many teams during that span. Redskins won five of last seven visits here. Rams lost last five home openers (0-5 vs spread) by average score of 34-14; they’re 0-4-1 vs spread last five times their home opener wasn’t in Week 1. St Louis played better defense in Detroit last week but couldn't finish job. Washington DC Haslett was interim coach of Rams after Scott Linehan was fired in ‘08. Under is 8-3-1 in Skins’ last dozen road openers; over is 9-5-1 in Rams’ last 15 home openers.

Jets (1-0) @ Steelers (0-1)— Last two seasons, Pittsburgh is 7-0-1 vs spread in game following a loss; they allowed 8.6 yds/pass attempt last week-- Sanchez is no Manning. Remember Tebow beat Steelers with Mile High TD in OT in LY’s playoffs; that said, Jets are 4-17 vs Steelers, with last four meetings all decided by 5 or less points, and last two Pitt wins coming in playoff games. Jets’ win here in ’10 was their only one in nine visits. Gang Green is 8-4 in last 12 road openers, 5-1 vs spread in last six, covering last four games as an underdog in road openers.. Pitt won last nine home openers (8-1 vs spread, covering last seven), allowing 10-9-0 points in last three; they upset Falcons in '10 home opener, even with Big Ben suspended. Steelers are 6-3 vs spread in home openers that aren’t in Week 1. Under is 8-5 in Jets’ last 13 road openers, 3-0 in Steelers’ last three home openers.

Titans (0-1) @ Chargers (1-0)—Short week for San Diego after win in Monday night opener in Oakland, when they benefitted from Oakland losing its snapper on punts/kicks; Chargers won eight in row over old AFL rivals, with last loss in Astrodome 20 years ago. Titans lost last five visits here by average score of 29-14; their last win here was in ’90. Tennessee won three of last five road openers (4-1 vs spread), with only non-cover 16-14 loss (-1) at Jax LY; dogs covered all five of those games. San Diego is 4-5 in last nine home openers (3-6 vs spread), despite being favored in seven of those nine games. Bolts are 4-10 vs spread last 14 times their home opener wasn’t in Week 1. 13 of Titans’ last 15 road openers stayed under total, including last five in row; seven of Bolts’ last nine home openers went over. Since '04, Chargers are 32-22-2 as home favorites. since '06, Tennessee is 18-10-1 vs spread as a road underdog.

Lions (1-0) @ 49ers (1-0)—Head coaches almost had post-game skirmish after 49ers’ 25-19 win at Ford Field LY, Niners’ 8th series win in row, and 13th in last 14 meetings. 49ers are 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine home openers, 3-0-1 in last four as favorite-- they’re 5-2 in last seven SU. 49ers outrushed Green Bay 186-45 in impressive win at Lambeau last week; they're +29 in turnovers in 17 regular season games under Harbaugh. This year is only second time in last 8 years Niners' home opener is non-divisional game. Detroit won last week, even though they had -3 turnover ratio, first time they did that since 1972. Lions are 3-8 in last 11 road openers; since ’88, they’re 4-2 vs spread in as an underdog in road openers. Since '08, 49ers are 16-6-1 vs spread as favorites at The Stick. Six of Detroit’s last seven road openers went over total. Detroit is 11-6-2 as a non-divisional underdog under Schwartz.

Broncos (1-0) @ Falcons (1-0)—Manning looked lot like old self last week, as Denver averaged 8.6 yards/pass attempt and had three TD drives of 80+ yards. Since 2007, Falcons are 19-7-1 vs spread as a home favorite; since '05, they've covered 19 of 28 games vs AFC opponents. Since '06, Manning is 7-2 as road underdog. Denver won seven of last eight series meetings, with average total in last nine 63.6- they’ve won last four visits here, but Fox lost last three visits here with Carolina, by 17-8-21 points-- he also lost five of last seven road openers. Denver is 3-5 in its last eight road openers, with under 7-2-1 in its last ten. Manning won nine of his last 11 road openers, with LY obviously not counting, since he didn’t play. Atlanta won/covered eight of last nine home openers, winning last three by combined score of 72-16. Under is 9-1-1 in Falcons’ last 11 home openers.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: