09/16/2012 12:55 AM
Sunday, Monday Games
Bucs (1-0) @ Giants (0-1)—Schiano’s first road game as Bucs’ HC brings him back to New Jersey, where he coached Rutgers for 12 years; both his coordinators coached for Giants, DC Sheridan (’05-’09), OC Sullivan (’04-’11). Much like Green Bay, Giants can’t afford to start year with two home losses; they allowed Dallas to average 9.4 yards/pass attempt in opening loss. Big Blue was only NFL team not to gain 20+ yards on any 1st/2nd down play last week; all three of their explosive plays came on 3rd downs. Bucs held Carolina to 10 yards rushing last week, allowed them to convert only twice on 10 third downs on stormy day. Tampa Bay won its last two road openers, but is 3-5 vs spread in last eight, all as underdog. 14 of their last 19 road openers stayed under total, but only one of last four. Average total in last eight series meetings, 24.4, with Giants winning last three by average score of 22-6.
Cardinals (1-0) @ Patriots (1-0)—Arizona lost last two visits here, 31-0/47-7; they come in off high after stopping Seattle in red zone at end of 20-16 win in home opener. Looks like Kolb will get start at QB here, after starter Skelton got hurt (high ankle sprain) with Cardinals down 16-13; Kolb then directed winning TD drive. Patriots ran ball for 162 yards last week, passed for 228, unusually good balance for them. Arizona won three of last four road openers, covering all four, after 0-6 skid (1-4-1 vs spread) before that. Redbirds are 9-6-1 vs spread in last 16 tries as an underdog in road openers, with five of last six staying under total. Patriots won last 10 home openers (6-3-1 vs spread), with eight of the ten games going over total; they covered last three home openers that weren’t in Week 1. This is first time since ’00 they host an NFC team in a home opener.
Vikings (1-0) @ Colts (0-1)—Indy’s post-Manning era got off to fast start when defense scored in first 4:00 last week, but they wound up giving up 41 points, NFL-high nine plays of 20+ yards. Colts turned ball over five times, converted just 2 of 10 on 3rd down in rough debut for team with new coach, new QB, new beginning. Vikings rallied to win in OT last week, kicking FGs on four of last five drives, including game-tying 55-yarder. Home team won nine of last ten series games; Vikings lost 31-10/31-28 in two visits here, but Indy had different QB then. Not sure how much these trends mean for them, but Colts are 3-7 in last ten home openers not started by now-departed Manning. Vikes lost six of last eight road openers; since ’88, they’re 1-8 vs spread as favorite in road openers. Four of Indy’s last six home openers went over total; six of Vikings’ last eight road openers stayed under.
Saints (0-1) @ Panthers (0-1)— Takes time to learn Spagnuolo’s defense; New Orleans was riddled by rookie QB RGIII in home opener, giving up 11.5 yards/pass attempt, but they’ve won last four games vs division rival Panthers, scoring 34-30-45 points in last three meetings, winning 34-3/30-27 in last two visits here. Saints are 9-5 vs spread in last 14 road openers (two of five losses were Thursday games)- their last four road openers went over (average total in last five, 59.4). Since ’88, NO is 2-4 vs spread as road favorite in road openers. Panthers ran ball for only 10 yards in opening loss on stormy day in Tampa; Carolina is 4-13 in home openers, 1-7 in last eight, 4-3 vs spread as underdogs. Over is 3-1-1 in last five, after under was 10-2 in their first 12. Underdogs are 13-3-1 vs spread in Panthers’ home openers.
Chiefs (0-1) @ Bills (0-1)— Buffalo won four of last five series games, crushing Chiefs 41-7 in Arrowhead LY; KC is making first visit here since ’05- they lost last five trips to Orchard Park by average of 19 points (last win here, ’86). Kansas City lost five of last six road openers, losing 48-3 (+7.5) in Detroit LY; only last 15 years, they’re 4-7 vs spread as an underdog in road openers. Buffalo is 4-7 in last 11 season openers, but covered six of last seven; since ’92, they’re 10-5 as favorite in home openers. Both teams gave up 40+ points in losses last week; Chiefs turned ball over three times on 11 plays after missing game-tying FG in 3rd quarter of 40-24 home loss. Bills gave up a TD on offense, one on special teams; none of Jets’ four TD drives was longer than 61 yards. Four of their last six home openers went over the total; five of Chiefs’ last seven road openers stayed under.
Ravens (1-0) @ Eagles (1-0)-- Short week for Raven squad that sported a wide open passing game in win over division rivals Monday; they've lost eight of last 11 road openers, including 26-12 debacle at Tennessee LY, after they crushed Steelers 35-7 in opener. Vick threw four picks in dreadful performance Sunday at Cleveland, but drove team 91 yards for win when it mattered most. Eagles won despite losing field position by 14 yards; that doesn't happen whole lot. Baltimore has covered six of last eight as underdog in road opener, which they are here. Average total in last three series games is 29.3. Four of Ravens' last five road openers went over. Philly lost five of its last six home openers, with four of last five staying under total; since ’88, Eagles are 7-10 against spread as favorite in home opener, 2-4-1 as dog.
Raiders (0-1) @ Dolphins (0-1)-- Very short week and cross country trip for Raiders, who trailed 10-6 Monday night before injury to long snapper pointed game in San Diego's favor. Miami won three in row and nine of last 11 series games, with Raiders losing six of last seven visits here, with four of six losses by 6 or less points. Over last 16 years, Oakland is 5-11 vs spread in Week 1, but they’ve won three of last four road openers, covering four of last five; over is 9-3-1 in its last 13 road openers. Dolphins are 8-30 vs spread in last 38 games as a home favorite; they've lost six in row and eight of last nine home openers, losing last six by average score of 28-18 (0-6 vs spread), with four of last five home openers going over total. Since ’93, Miami is 1-7 vs spread in home openers that were not in Week 1.
Browns (0-1) @ Bengals (0-1)— Cincinnati won last three series games, by 2-10-3 points; four of last six series games were decided by three or less points. Browns lost seven of last eight visits here, losing last two trips here by total of 5 points. Cleveland is 1-5 in last six road openers, after winning four of first seven; favorites are 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine road openers, with eight of last 11 going over total. Browns had Eagles down 16-10 after picking Vick off four times in opener last week, but they let him drive 91 yards for winning TD in last 2:00. Short week for Bengals after Monday night’s beating in Baltimore. Cincy lost three of its last four home openers, scoring a dismal 9.3 ppg; they covered just three of last 12 as a favorite in home openers, which they are here. Seven of Cincy’s last nine home openers stayed under total. Cleveland is 8-5 vs spread in last 13 games as road dog in divisional games.
Texans (1-0) @ Jaguars (0-1)-- Home teams won eight of last ten series games, with Texans losing five of last seven visits here; Houston is 12-6-1 vs spread as a favorite last 2+ years, 5-2 on road. Jaguars won 17 of 27 (63%) plays on 3rd down at Minnesota last week, but couldn't stop Vikings at end of game and lost in OT. Since '07, Jax is 6-10 vs spread as a home dog, 3-6 in divisional games. Houston won last three road openers (scored 34-30-23 points) after losing five of first seven; they won 30-27 (-3)/23-13 (-3) as favorites in last two road openers, first two times they’ve been favored in one. Seven of their last nine road openers went over the total. Jaguars are 4-3 in last seven home openers, winning last two 24-17/16-14; they actually won six of their first seven home openers, are 4-2 as underdogs in a home opener. Under is 11-5-1 in all 17 of their home openers.
Cowboys (1-0) @ Seahawks (0-1)— Seattle won/covered eight of its last nine home openers, winning last three by combined score of 72-16, but they've lost last three games with Cowboys, all by 10+ points, but all three of those were in Texas. Pokes lost three of last four visits here, with last win 43-39 back in '84. Dallas had four extra days to rest/prepare after winning its opener in Swamp; How many times will ESPN show Romo botching snap on kick in '06 playoff game played here? Home side won last five series games; Dallas is 3-3 here, 1-3 in last four visits, with last win 43-39 in ’04.Since ’88, 2-4 vs spread as dog in Seattle's home openers. Under is 19-5 in their last 24 home openers, 2-3 in last five. Seattle had only one TD on four red zone drives last week, lost 20-16 in Arizona despite 10-yard edge in field position. Under is 9-1-1 in Seahawks’ last 11 home openers.
Redskins (1-0) @ Rams (0-1)—RGIII bandwagon has gotten very crowded very quickly; Rams are team that traded its pick to Washington so they could draft him. Skins averaged 11.5 yards/pass attempt last week in Superdome, #1 figure in NFL, but don't forget, Saints are learning new defense and without a head coach. St Louis is 3-2 vs Skins last six years; Rams haven’t held edge over many teams during that span. Redskins won five of last seven visits here. Rams lost last five home openers (0-5 vs spread) by average score of 34-14; they’re 0-4-1 vs spread last five times their home opener wasn’t in Week 1. St Louis played better defense in Detroit last week but couldn't finish job. Washington DC Haslett was interim coach of Rams after Scott Linehan was fired in ‘08. Under is 8-3-1 in Skins’ last dozen road openers; over is 9-5-1 in Rams’ last 15 home openers.
Jets (1-0) @ Steelers (0-1)— Last two seasons, Pittsburgh is 7-0-1 vs spread in game following a loss; they allowed 8.6 yds/pass attempt last week-- Sanchez is no Manning. Remember Tebow beat Steelers with Mile High TD in OT in LY’s playoffs; that said, Jets are 4-17 vs Steelers, with last four meetings all decided by 5 or less points, and last two Pitt wins coming in playoff games. Jets’ win here in ’10 was their only one in nine visits. Gang Green is 8-4 in last 12 road openers, 5-1 vs spread in last six, covering last four games as an underdog in road openers.. Pitt won last nine home openers (8-1 vs spread, covering last seven), allowing 10-9-0 points in last three; they upset Falcons in '10 home opener, even with Big Ben suspended. Steelers are 6-3 vs spread in home openers that aren’t in Week 1. Under is 8-5 in Jets’ last 13 road openers, 3-0 in Steelers’ last three home openers.
Titans (0-1) @ Chargers (1-0)—Short week for San Diego after win in Monday night opener in Oakland, when they benefitted from Oakland losing its snapper on punts/kicks; Chargers won eight in row over old AFL rivals, with last loss in Astrodome 20 years ago. Titans lost last five visits here by average score of 29-14; their last win here was in ’90. Tennessee won three of last five road openers (4-1 vs spread), with only non-cover 16-14 loss (-1) at Jax LY; dogs covered all five of those games. San Diego is 4-5 in last nine home openers (3-6 vs spread), despite being favored in seven of those nine games. Bolts are 4-10 vs spread last 14 times their home opener wasn’t in Week 1. 13 of Titans’ last 15 road openers stayed under total, including last five in row; seven of Bolts’ last nine home openers went over. Since '04, Chargers are 32-22-2 as home favorites. since '06, Tennessee is 18-10-1 vs spread as a road underdog.
Lions (1-0) @ 49ers (1-0)—Head coaches almost had post-game skirmish after 49ers’ 25-19 win at Ford Field LY, Niners’ 8th series win in row, and 13th in last 14 meetings. 49ers are 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine home openers, 3-0-1 in last four as favorite-- they’re 5-2 in last seven SU. 49ers outrushed Green Bay 186-45 in impressive win at Lambeau last week; they're +29 in turnovers in 17 regular season games under Harbaugh. This year is only second time in last 8 years Niners' home opener is non-divisional game. Detroit won last week, even though they had -3 turnover ratio, first time they did that since 1972. Lions are 3-8 in last 11 road openers; since ’88, they’re 4-2 vs spread in as an underdog in road openers. Since '08, 49ers are 16-6-1 vs spread as favorites at The Stick. Six of Detroit’s last seven road openers went over total. Detroit is 11-6-2 as a non-divisional underdog under Schwartz.
Broncos (1-0) @ Falcons (1-0)—Manning looked lot like old self last week, as Denver averaged 8.6 yards/pass attempt and had three TD drives of 80+ yards. Since 2007, Falcons are 19-7-1 vs spread as a home favorite; since '05, they've covered 19 of 28 games vs AFC opponents. Since '06, Manning is 7-2 as road underdog. Denver won seven of last eight series meetings, with average total in last nine 63.6- they’ve won last four visits here, but Fox lost last three visits here with Carolina, by 17-8-21 points-- he also lost five of last seven road openers. Denver is 3-5 in its last eight road openers, with under 7-2-1 in its last ten. Manning won nine of his last 11 road openers, with LY obviously not counting, since he didn’t play. Atlanta won/covered eight of last nine home openers, winning last three by combined score of 72-16. Under is 9-1-1 in Falcons’ last 11 home openers.
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: