Super trends return for Week 1
September 4, 2012
It's been seven seasons since a team has repeated as Super Bowl champions and that's the task at hand in 2012 for the New York Giants. On Wednesday, the club will kick off the season at home against the Dallas Cowboys.
Even though some clubs play poorly as the hunted rather than the hunted, the Super Bowl champs haven't fallen too quickly from the pedestal, especially in their Week 1 openers!
Super Bowl Winner - Week 1 History (2000-2011)
Year SB Winner Opponent Result
2011 Green Bay (-4.5) New Orleans 42-34 (Cover)
2010 New Orleans (-4.5) Minnesota 14-9 (Cover)
2009 Pittsburgh (-5) Tennessee 13-10 (Non-Cover)
2008 N.Y. Giants (-4) Washington 16-7 (Cover)
2007 Indianapolis (-5) New Orleans 41-10 (Cover)
2006 Pittsburgh (-7.5) Miami 28-17 (Cover)
2005 New England (-7.5) Oakland 30-20 (Cover)
2004 New England (-3) Indianapolis 27-24 (Push)
2003 Tampa Bay (+3) Philadelphia 17-0 (Cover)
2002 New England (PK) Pittsburgh 30-14 (Cover)
2001 Baltimore (-10) Chicago 17-6 (Cover)
2000 St. Louis (-7) Denver 41-36 (Non-Cover)
Looking at the above table, bettors can see that the Super Bowl champion has won its opener the last 12 seasons, which might not come as a big surprise to you since they're usually at home and listed as a favorite as well. What might impress you is the champion's mark against the spread over this stretch, which stands at 9-2-1 (82%).
The last champion to lose its Week 1 opener the following season was Denver, which occurred in 1999. The Broncos defeated Atlanta 34-19 in Super Bowl XXXIII and were humbled 38-21 by Miami as 5 ½-point home favorites.
Will the G-Men keep the streak alive?
The Giants opened as three-point favorites over the Cowboys and the line has jumped to 3 ½ and even 4 at some major offshore outfits. If you're afraid to lay the points, you can take New York on the money-line, which is listed as high as minus-200 (Bet $100 to win $50).
New York swept the regular season series against Dallas last year and has won five of the last six encounters against their NFC East rival. Also, the Giants have gone 6-2 straight up in their eight home openers under head coach Tom Coughlin.
If you are looking to buck the trend and back the Cowboys, you could point to familiarity. Dallas has opened its regular season on the road in eight of the past 10 seasons. The Cowboys came up short in last year's opener to the Jets (24-27) in a game they easily could've won. Dallas led 24-10 in the fourth quarter but key turnovers and a late special teams touchdown sealed their fate. Despite the tough loss, the 'Boys did manage to cover as six-point road underdogs.
According to the latest betting trends at Sportsbook.ag, over 80% of the action for Wednesday's opener is on the Giants.
Another team that's receiving heavy public attention in Week 1 is New England. The Patriots are hoping to rebound in 2012 after losing to the aforementioned Giants in last year's Super Bowl.
New England is favored to win the AFC by the oddsmakers but success might not happen right away, especially if the Super Bowl loser trend continues in Week 1. The situation has been just as strong as the above angle that focuses on New York and sometimes more valuable not just for the opening week but the entire season.
Super Bowl Loser - Week 1 History (1999-2011)
Year Loser Opponent Line Result
2011 Pittsburgh at Baltimore +1 Loss 7-35
2010 Indianapolis at Houston -2.5 Loss 24-34
2009 Arizona vs. San Francisco -6.5 Loss 16-20
2008 New England vs. Kansas City -16 Win 17-10 (Non-Cover)
2007 Chicago at San Diego +6 Loss 3-14
2006 Seattle at Detroit -6 Win 9-6 (Non-Cover)
2005 Philadelphia at Atlanta -1 Loss 10-14
2004 Carolina vs. Green Bay -3 Loss 14-24
2003 Oakland at Tennessee +3 Loss 20-25
2002 St. Louis at Denver -3 Loss 16-23
2001 N.Y. Giants vs. San Francisco +3 Loss 13-16
2000 Tennessee at Buffalo PK Loss 13-16
1999 Atlanta at Minnesota +4 Loss 14-17 (Cover)
Gamblers have watched the loser of the last year's Super Bowl go 2-11 SU and 1-11-1 ATS in Week 1 over the past 13 seasons. New England will head to Tennessee on Sunday and the Patriots are listed as six-point road favorites at most betting shops. The Pats have gone 9-3 in Week 1 openers since Bill Belichick took over the coaching duties in New England. Last year, the club opened the season in South Florida and the team blasted Miami 38-24 as seven-point favorites in wire-to-wire fashion.
The last time the Titans faced the Patriots came in 2009 when they were embarrassed 59-0 in a blizzard at Foxboro. Even though the Titans aren't considered contenders, the team did go 9-7 at home last season and that included a 5-3 mark in Nashville.
And if you delve into the numbers further, two of the three losses at home were by 7 or less. We mention that number because the Patriots will most likely be laying 7 or more come this Sunday afternoon.