cnotes Posts:25142 Followers:33
09/25/2012 10:37 PM

Baltimore Ravens At Risk For Letdown Versus Browns

The Baltimore Ravens could be ripe for a physical and emotional letdown when they host the Cleveland Browns on Thursday Night Football.

The NFL Week 4 odds have just been released at Don Best and Baltimore is a sizable 12-point favorite with a total of 44 points. M&T Bank Stadium is the site for the 8:20 p.m. (ET) broadcast on the NFL Network.

Baltimore is breathing a sigh of relief after Sunday night’s 31-30 thrilling home win over New England. The officials were brutal for both teams with 24 total penalties, but the Ravens prevailed with rookie kicker Justin Tucker sneaking in the game-winning field goal as time expired. That was much-needed revenge for last year’s AFC title game loss.

Coach John Harbaugh’s team (2-1 straight up and against the spread) did suffer its first ATS failure this year as 2½-point favorites. All three games have gone ‘over’ the total with the scoring offense (32.7 PPG) ranked second in the league and the defense (22.3 PPG) tied-for-15th.

The defensive figure is more surprising after ranking third last year (16.6 PPG). It hurts that linebacker Terrell Suggs is injured and Jarret Johnson departed as a free agent. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are playing very well despite their advanced age, but it will be hard for those two and the whole team to bounce back so quickly from New England.

Quarterback Joe Flacco did great in leading the comeback last week. Receiver Torrey Smith had an incredible game (127 yards, two TDS), especially given the fact that his younger brother died less than 24 hours earlier in a motorcycle accident. Smith will likely be very preoccupied leading up to this game.

Baltimore would be smart to concentrate on Ray Rice and the running game. He is averaging a whopping 5.8 yards per pop and has seen his carries increase (10, 16, 20) the last three weeks.

Cleveland (0-3 SU, 1-1-1 ATS) is still winless in coach Pat Shurmur’s second season, the latest being a 24-14 home loss to Buffalo as 2½-point ‘dogs. The team lost the final six games of last season, although was an impressive 5-1 ATS.

Brandon Weeden has a 60.7 quarterback rating (ranked 30th), but has at least played better since the horrendous Week 1 performance against Philly with four picks. The almost 29-year-old rookie from Oklahoma State is not blessed with good weapons and now leading receiver Mohamed Massaquoi (185 yards) is questionable with a hamstring injury.

Running back Trent Richardson was drafted high in the first round to take pressure off the passing game. He’s had one breakout game at Cincinnati (109 yards), but has just 175 rushing yards this season on 3.5 per carry.

Baltimore’s defense should be able to contain Richardson at home and will look to add to Weeden’s six interceptions for the year.

The Browns’ defense continues to struggle at 391.7 YPG (ranked 25th). The four-game suspension of cornerback Joe Haden has really hurt the secondary. The front-seven caught a break with Buffalo running back C.J. Spiller getting hurt last game, but still let up 91 yards to the underwhelming Tashard Choice. That doesn’t bode well against Rice.

Cleveland has lost 8-straight against the Ravens, but covered the last two in Baltimore at around 12-point underdogs each time.

Both matchups went ‘under’ last year and it’s 5-1 in the last six between the teams. The ‘under’ is 11-3-1 in the Browns last 15 games overall.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25142 Followers:33
09/25/2012 10:40 PM

Books dominate weekend

September 24, 2012

The Las Vegas sports books had one of those epic type of weekends, where three or four years down the road when discussing some of their biggest winning weeks, they’ll always refer back to Week 3 of the 2012 season. Between Saturday’s college football action and Sunday’s NFL slate, the recreational bettor -- the type that comprises the majority of the handle -- never had a chance.

There were some instances of bettors changing their habits a little by siding with a few underdogs, but for the most part, it’s not easy for them to bet against the favorites they all know and love. Saturday’s college action saw the favorites go 17-28-2 against-the-spread, and it got even worse Sunday when almost every elite favorite went down for the count, going 4-10 ATS.

The underdogs didn’t just cover the spread, a large portion of them also won outright, which not only rakes in a ton of win through parlays, but also wipes out the bulk of all teaser and money-line plays. Fourteen of the 28 underdogs that covered in college won outright. Eight of the 10 ’dogs that covered in the pros won straight-up, an obscene amount that is nearly comparable to an eclipse occurring.

Saturday’s college action was helped by some of the top-ranked college teams not covering, such as Alabama, LSU, Florida State, and Oklahoma. Bettors also took it on the chin when they surprisingly sided No. 23 Arizona at No. 3 Oregon, taking the 23 points, only to watch their attempt at adapting to recent trends blow up in their face when Oregon rolled, 49-0 for their first cover of the season.

One of the sports books' biggest wins on Saturday was when No. 19 UCLA lost at home as a seven-point favorite to Oregon State, 27-20. The Bruins had covered all three of their games this season, and looked to be a changed team under Jim Mora Jr., putting all kinds of points of the board and covering easily, traits bettors love to see. It didn’t matter that sharp money had backed the Beavers, pushing the line from 9 ½ to 7 early in the week, because the bettors were enamored with what UCLA did the first three weeks.

When the bettors regrouped their thought process and went to the ATM to reload funds, they came into Sunday’s action full of confidence. Many reports around town say that Sunday’s handle was above Week 3 last season, continuing an upswing through the first three weeks.

In Week 2, the NFL teams showed a glimpse of how anything can happen on any given day with six underdogs winning outright. That should have been a nice introductory course on how to handle Week 3, but instead, their process went like this: the 49ers look indestructible, the Saints can’t start off 0-3, the Jaguars might be one of the worst teams in football and if they’re not, the Titans are.

The 49ers were the most lopsided one-way action of the day, laying seven points on the road at Minnesota. The majority of the betting public had the 49ers on at least one of their tickets, if not all of them, as one of the gimmes of the day. The public likes to bet what they saw last, and wiping out two playoff teams -- the Packers and Lions -- was a pretty impressive resume. The Vikings controlled the game from the outset, winning 24-13 in a game that was probably one of the least competitive on the day.

The Saints are one of the biggest mysteries of all, and this last of act of theirs, may have finally had the last bettor jumping off their wagon. Last season they covered all nine of their home games, a hard habit to break for bettors that had been cashing in on them. On Sunday, beyond not covering, they also lost in overtime, at home, 27-24 to the Chiefs, one of the least respected teams in the bettors’ mind.

Those two games alone would have been enough for the sports books to salvage a winning day. The 49ers were the root of most every parlay and the Saints were the second. But things got even better for the books. The Titans, who have looked uncompetitive in their first two games, played inspired and beat the Lions, 44-41 as 4-point ‘dogs. The Bengals were getting three points in Robert Griffin III’s home debut at Washington and won, 38-31. The Jaguars beat the Colts, 22-17 as a three-point dog with some more impressive late game heroics by Blaine Gabbert.

If a bettor had bet a five-team money-line parlay with those underdogs, $10 would have fetched $3,034, or at least got them to the books’ cap price on off-the-board parlays. It’s hard for people to change their patterns, but we have witnessed almost the same thing happen the past two weeks.

Is it likely to continue? Probably not, it could just be one of those things the sports books loves that keeps bettors guessing. What is likely to happen is as soon as bettors start sided with the dogs more, the cycle will shift, lines won’t be as inflated, and the favorites begin to go on a run. When that happens, the books won’t be as hurt as much in the past because a portion of their patrons will have come up with new strategies to try and beat the number.

During the afternoon games, we started to see a shift in the public betting patterns as they sided with two underdogs, the Cardinals and Falcons. Granted, both aren’t your average underdog, but both were getting three points and found lots of support. Even though those wins were small consolations on the day, the bettors didn’t have anything live going into them so instead of paying 20-to-1 on a five-team parlay, they maybe only paid out 10/11 on a straight bet or 13-to-5 on a two-teamer.

By the time the big Sunday night came out between the Patriots and Ravens, bettors were either busted or had to run to the ATM again. Wouldn’t you know it, the majority sided with the Ravens laying 2 ½ points. The Ravens won 31-30, but didn’t cover. The books win again and it was the ultimate cherry on top of the days‘ sundae, a weekend that will be hard to top for the remaining 14 weeks.

Hang in there folks, it will get better.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25142 Followers:33
09/25/2012 10:41 PM

Close Calls - Week 3

September 24, 2012

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the 4th quarter last week in a wild Week 3 in the NFL. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows, get the details in this weekly column.

Chicago Bears (-7) 23, St. Louis Rams 6 (42): The Bears led just 10-6 entering the 4th quarter and the Rams appeared to be gaining some momentum despite very limited offensive production on the day. Chicago tacked on a field goal early in the final frame and then got the game-changing play it needed with a 45-yard interception return for a touchdown with nine minutes to go to put the game out of reach.

Dallas Cowboys (-7) 16, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 (45½): Dallas nearly doubled Tampa Bay’s yardage for the game, but Dallas only led 10-7 after a scoreless third quarter filled with two Tony Romo fumbles, both that needed questionable overturns on challenges. Tampa Bay kept holding Dallas to field goals to stay in the game and Dallas took a 16-7 lead with less than three minutes to go in the game to get past the spread after a 22-yard field goal. Tampa Bay was backed up deep, but hit a huge pass play on a miracle 4th and long heave to keep the game alive and eventually setup a spread-stealing field goal with less than a minute to go.

Tennessee Titans (+4) 44, Detroit Lions 41 (47): The Titans led by four entering the fourth quarter and the total was still well ‘under’ at that point before a remarkable finish ensued. Detroit got a field goal to get within one early in the fourth but then there was no scoring until less than seven minutes to go. The Lions found the end zone and hit the two-point conversion to push the lead to seven points. The Titans answered immediately with a 105-yard kickoff return touchdown. Tennessee got the ball back and Nate Washington made an amazing catch and broke away for 71 yards and a score to put the underdog Titans up by seven, then with just over a minute to go Tennessee got a 72-yard fumble return touchdown. Those on the underdog Titans were certainly feeling good with a 14-point lead. Even with Calvin Johnson scoring a touchdown with 18 seconds left, there was little worry, but the Lions got the onside kick and then incredibly hit a deflected Hail Mary pass for a touchdown and overtime. The Titans got the ball first and aided by a misapplied penalty got the go-ahead field goal. The Lions went right down the field, but then opted to go for it on 4th-and-one deep in Tennessee territory, eschewing the tying field goal. Backup QB Shaun Hill bobbled the snap on the sneak call and the game finally ended.

New York Jets (-2½) 23, Miami Dolphins 20 (40½): The Dolphins led 17-10 entering the 4th quarter and the ‘under’ also looked in good shape. New York eventually took a three-point lead with about three minutes to go, getting past or right at the spread for the first time in the game. Miami would rally for the tie with a late field goal, however to force overtime. The Jets got the ball first but eventually had to punt, leaving Miami the opportunity to win with just a field goal under the new OT rules. Miami was able to complete a few big plays and got to the New York 30-yard line, but Dan Carpenter missed his second field goal of the game. The Jets hit a big pass play down the sidelines to Santonio Holmes and the winning field goal was pushed through for New York, getting a win or at least a push for those on the slight road favorite, and also pushing the total just ‘over’.

Kansas City Chiefs (+8½) 27, New Orleans Saints 24 (51½): New Orleans led this game 24-6 late in the third quarter, but Jamaal Charles broke a 91-yard run to bring the margin to just 11 points and turning the tide in the game. Kansas City played an inspired fourth quarter, delivering three field goal drives and also getting a safety. The final field goal came with three seconds left to send the game to overtime. Kansas City moved into New Orleans territory, but had to punt on the opening possession, while New Orleans then went three-and-out. There was some drama on the next drive as the on-field ruling gave the Saints a fumble return touchdown, but the egregiously bad call was overturned in the replay system. On the next play, the Chiefs boldly went for it on fourth down near midfield and got it, and then marched deep into Saints territory, lining up the game-winning field goal and sending the Saints to 0-3.

Buffalo Bills (-3) 24, Cleveland Browns 14 (45): The Bills had a big early lead in this game, but Cleveland closed to three points late in the third quarter. Both teams threatened in the fourth, but the Bills struck with a nine-yard touchdown pass to go up by 10. The final two drives for the Browns ended in interceptions and the Bills opted to take a knee with a lot of time on the clock at the Cleveland one-yard line, enraging those that were on the ‘over’ in the game.

Oakland Raiders (+4) 34, Pittsburgh Steelers 31 (45): The Steelers led 31-21 entering the 4th quarter, but the Raiders cut that margin to three early in the fourth. Pittsburgh moved the ball nicely on the next drive, but an Antonio Brown fumble gave the Raiders new life. Oakland got the tying field goal with six minutes to go and then held on defense to get a shot at the win, setting up Sebastian Janikowski for the 43-yard game winner to get into the win column.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25142 Followers:33
09/25/2012 10:45 PM

Double-Digit Trends

September 25, 2012

It's well known in handicapping circles that the NFL is the most difficult sport to beat and this year's regular season backs up that statement, at least for the betting public.
Through three weeks of action, underdogs have produced an overall record of 28-19-1 (60%) against the spread, which includes an eye opening 11-5 (69%) mark in Week 3. So what should bettors expect going forward?

VegasInsider.com handicapper Marc Lawrence explains that you should always expect the unexpected in the NFL.

He said, "You're never as good as you are in your best win and at the same time never as bad in your worst loss."

Put simply, NFL teams have good and bad weeks and the margins should never be emphasized. Unfortunately, most pundits in television and radio put a lot of stock into blowout victories and losses, which often misleads the betting public.

With the help of Lawrence, we broke down the first 48 games and found some intriguing results when it comes to double-digit victories.

After three weeks, we've seen 14 wins by 10 or more points.

In the following game, the team that has lost by double digits has produced a 12-2 straight up record. For betting purposes, those clubs have gone 10-3-1 against the spread.

Double-Digit Losers - Week 1
Outcome Week 2 Result
Team Week 1 Loss SU ATS

Tennessee 13-34 vs. New England L L
Miami 10-30 @ Houston W W
Kansas City 24-40 vs. Atlanta L L
Indianapolis 21-41 @ Chicago W W
Buffalo 28-48 @ N.Y. Jets W W
Cincinnati 13-44 @ Baltimore W P
Pittsburgh 19-31 @ Denver W W

Double-Digit Losers - Week 2
Outcome Week 3 Result
Team Week 2 Loss SU ATS

Chicago 10-23 @ Green Bay W W
Jacksonville 7-27 @ Houston W W
Kansas City 17-35 @ Buffalo W W
N.Y. Jets 10-27 @ Pittsburgh W W
Tenneessee 10-38 @ San Diego W W
Oakland 13-35 @ Miami W W
Dallas 7-27 @ Seattle W L


And if you delve deeper into the above table, you could take out the results from the Buffalo-Kansas City matchup in Week 2 since both teams were coming off double-digit losses. If you do that, the numbers are 11-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS.
While it's safe to say that the league as a whole has rebounded from rough losses, it's also fair to say that teams have had trouble duplicating big wins. According to Lawrence, clubs off double-digit wins are 5-9 SU and 6-8 ATS. And if you take out the matchups where two teams meet off wins by 10-plus points, the number dips to 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS. (Denver-Atlanta, Green Bay-Seattle).

Double-Digit Winners - Week 1
Outcome Week 2 Result
Team Week 1 Win SU ATS

Chicago 41-21 vs. Indianapolis L L
N.Y. Jets 48-28 vs. Buffalo L L
New England 34-13 at Tennessee L L
Atlanta 40-24 vs. Kansas City W W
Houston 30-10 vs. Miami W W
Denver 31-19 vs. Pittsburgh L L
Baltimore 44-13 vs. Cincinnati L W

Double-Digit Winners - Week 2
Outcome Week 3 Result
Team Week 2 Win SU ATS

Green Bay 23-10 vs. Chicago L L
Miami 35-13 vs. Oakland L L
Houston 27-7 at Jacksonville W W
Seattle 27-7 vs. Dallas W W
Pittsburgh 27-10 vs. N.Y. Jets L L
San Diego 38-10 vs. Tennessee L L
Buffalo 35-17 vs. Kansas City W W

Will these trends continue?
Only time will tell but the below table lists the 12 teams that were involved in the six decisions from Week 3 that were decided by more than 10 points. Of those 12, we'll have two matchups where a team that lost by double digits will be facing a team that won by double digits. Carolina will visit Atlanta, while Philadelphia hosts the N.Y. Giants.

Week 3 Double-Digit Winners & Losers
Loser Week 4 Opponent Winner Week 4 Opponent

Carolina @ Atlanta N.Y. Giants @ Philadelphia
St. Louis vs. Seattle Chicago @ Dallas
San Francisco @ N.Y. Jets Minnesota @ Detroit
Cleveland @ Baltimore Buffalo vs. New England
San Diego @ Kansas City Atlanta vs. Carolina
Philadelphia vs. N.Y. Giants Arizona vs. Miami

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25142 Followers:33
09/27/2012 07:06 PM

NFL odds: Week 4 opening line report

Upsets continue to be the big story of the 2012 NFL season, especially after a week in which teams getting the points finished 10-6 SU and 12-4 ATS.

None of those underdogs barked louder and with more blowback than the Seattle Seahawks, who stunned the Green Bay Packers 14-12 as 3-point home favorites, thanks to a questionable call from the replacement officials on the final play of the game.

According to reports out of Las Vegas and online books, as much as $250 million may have swung on that Hail Mary play, giving NFL bettors backing the Seahawks reason to celebrate.

Seattle’s controversial win improves it to 2-1 SU and ATS heading into Week 4's road date with the St. Louis Rams. The Sports Club, a Nevada-based odds service, sent out a suggested spread of Seahawks -2.5 and early lines popping up at online books tabbed Seattle as 1.5-point road chalk for Sunday’s game in St. Louis.

“I still think (the Seahawks) are going to go through some growing pains,” Peter Korner, founder of The Sports Club, told Covers. “They didn’t have a good second half, offensively (Monday), and basically got a gift on that last play.”

“It’s tough to take from these games, week to week, because we still don’t really know the nature of these teams – which is great for booking these games,” he says. “It’s messing with people’s minds. But we just go on setting the odds as normal.”

Korner says games like Monday’s, which have featured blunders by the replacement refs, have skewed the way bettors look at the games. The lack of consistency has been a boon to sportsbooks, who have cashed in big with underdogs going 29-18-1 ATS heading into Week 4.

“As far as bookmaking goes, all this stuff is fabulous,” adds Korner.

Here are the opening lines and early moves for some of Week 4’s biggest NFL games:

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-6.5, 54.5)

Who would have thought there would be only one win between these two teams when they met in Week 4? Green Bay is 1-2 SU after the controversy in Seattle Monday, but it’s still the more stable team in this matchup. The Saints are 0-3 SU and need a big win to stop them from circling the drain.

“Neither team is playing up to their standards which will help booking this a lot,” says Korner, who originally sent out Green Bay -7. “We're not sure who will attract the big cash in this one on game day but we're thinking the Packers.”

San Francisco 49ers at New York Jets (+4.5, 39.5)

The Niners make the cross-county hike to New Jersey, trying to put last weekend’s brain fart against Minnesota in the rearview. The Sports Club suggested San Francisco -3, which is where most shops opened.

However, early action has pushed this spread off the key number and as high as 49ers -4.5 as of Tuesday morning. Road chalk has gone just 7-12 SU and 6-13 ATS so far this season.

“We were low to start and with the injury news of New York CB Darrelle Revis being out, the early action is strictly on the road favorites,” says Korner.

Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 42)

The spread for the Monday nighter opened at Dallas -3 and jumped to -4 with early money on the home side. The Cowboys improved to 2-1 SU with an ugly win over Tampa Bay and, while the defense has looked solid, the offense is struggling to move the chains. That’s reflected in the move for the total, which has dropped from as high as 45 to 42 points.

“Good game which should help divide the action,” says Korner. “Both teams will be good to root for. This is a toss-up.”

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25142 Followers:33
09/27/2012 07:12 PM

Football lines that make you go hmmm...

The NFC East has bigger personality swings than Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde playing a heated game of Madden against Bruce Banner and the Hulk.

Through the first three weeks of the 2012 NFL season, the Giants, Cowboys, Eagles and Redskins have all looked great at one time or another. And, at one time or another, all four of those teams have looked downright terrible.

The schizophrenic division gets a moment of clarity Sunday night, when Philadelphia plays host to New York.

Oddsmakers have tabbed the Eagles as the favorites but depending on where you bet, you can grab the home side anywhere from -1 to -2.5, which is a world of difference when betting on teams with such extreme identity crises. It looks like even the oddsmakers don't know what they're dealing with in this NFC East grudge match.

“This is not a must-win game for Philly but they need to show well,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, told Covers. “Each team has a big-time receiver injured with (Hakeem) Hicks and (Jeremy) Maclin banged up.”

The Giants are 1-7 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Eagles, but the road team is a profitable 8-2 ATS in their last 10 encounters. See, even the betting trends are confused when it comes to this divisional showdown.

Here are some other spreads making football bettors go “hmmm…” heading into the weekend:

NFL

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-1, 44.5)

As bad as San Diego looked last Sunday, should it really be a 1-point underdog in Arrowhead? Early bettors seem to think so. The spread has flipped from Kansas City +1, with sharp action impressed with the Chiefs’ overtime road win in New Orleans.

Covers Expert Teddy Covers said he saw some “quit” in Norv Turner’s team during last Sunday’s blowout loss to the Falcons. However, oddsmakers do expect more money on the Bolts as gametime draws near. San Diego is just 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 trips to Kansas City.

NCAAF

Oregon State Beavers at Arizona Wildcats (-2.5, 56.5)

Depending on your feelings about Arizona, this spread may look a little wonky to you. But the number that has football fans scratching their heads is the lofty 56.5-point total. Oregon State has only played two games thanks to a postponed opener, but the Beavers have gone against the Pac-12 grain and are getting the job done with defense.

Their state rivals, the Ducks, laid out the blueprint for beating the Wildcats with their 49-0 shutout last Saturday. Rich Rod will make some adjustments but OSU has a great bend-but-don’t-break mentality, holding foes to a 13.79 percent success rate on third downs – best in the country.

Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Cincinnati Bearcats (+7, 45)

Boxing and MMA bettors love to play this math game when figuring out their wagers: If Fighter X beat Fighter Y, and Fighter Y beat Fighter Z, then Fighter X should mop the floor with Fighter Z. Not always the case, unfortunately.

Virginia Tech, which was stunned 35-17 by Pitt in Week 3, is a 7-point favorite versus Cincinnati, which thumped that same Pitt team 34-10 in Week 2. So what gives with the touchdown being gift wrapped to the Bearcats for this game at FedEx Field?

The Hokies offense is sputtering and meets a Cincy squad coming off a bye. The Bearcats, while only playing two games so far, can put points on the board. If Virginia Tech is going to win, it’ll be on defense and that 7-point spread may be a little too much for an offense that ranks seventh in the ho-hum ACC.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25142 Followers:33
09/27/2012 07:12 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 4

Cleveland at Baltimore
The Browns look to bounce back from their 24-14 loss to Buffalo last week and build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Cleveland is the pick (+12) according to Dunkel, which has the Ravens favored by only 10. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+12). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 27

Game 101-102: Cleveland at Baltimore (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 130.690; Baltimore 140.806
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 10; 48
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 12; 44
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+12); Over

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 30

Game 205-206: New England at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 137.358; Buffalo 135.662
Dunkel Line: New England by 1 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: New England by 4; 52
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+4); Under

Game 207-208: Minnesota at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 125.259; Detroit 133.529
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 8 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Detroit by 3; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-3); Under

Game 209-210: Carolina at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 132.952; Atlanta 138.196
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 5; 53
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 7; 49
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+7); Over

Game 211-212: San Francisco at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 140.218; NY Jets 128.471
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 11 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 4; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-4); Under

Game 213-214: San Diego at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 130.591; Kansas City 133.033
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 2 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 1; 45
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-1); Over

Game 215-216: Tennessee at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 128.839; Houston 139.085
Dunkel Line: Houston by 10; 42
Vegas Line: Houston by 12 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+12 1/2); Under

Game 217-218: Seattle at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 128.172; St. Louis 128.082
Dunkel Line: Even; 41
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3; 38
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+3); Over

Game 219-220: Miami at Arizona (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 131.864; Arizona 130.611
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Arizona by 6 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+6 1/2); Over

Game 221-222: Oakland at Denver (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 124.414; Denver 134.878
Dunkel Line: Denver by 10 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Denver by 6 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-6 1/2); Under

Game 223-224: Cincinnati at Jacksonville (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 131.605; Jacksonville 126.859
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 4 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 1; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-1); Under

Game 225-226: New Orleans at Green Bay (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 127.610; Green Bay 141.775
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 14; 57
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 7 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-7 1/2); Over

Game 227-228: Washington at Tampa Bay (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 127.686; Tampa Bay 132.524
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 5; 50
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 47
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-3); Over

Game 229-230: NY Giants at Philadelphia (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 137.563; Philadelphia 136.390
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1; 42
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 2 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+2 1/2); Under

MONDAY, OCTOBER 1

Game 231-232: Chicago at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 133.203; Dallas 137.533
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 2; 36
Vegas Line: Dallas by 3 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3 1/2); Under

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25142 Followers:33
09/27/2012 07:14 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 4

Thursday, September 27, 2012

Cleveland at Baltimore, 8:20 ET NFL
Cleveland: 13-5 Under in all games
Baltimore: 9-1 ATS in home games after a win by 3 or less


Sunday, September 30, 2012

New England at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
New England: 13-4 ATS in road games
Buffalo: 10-2 Over as an underdog

Minnesota at Detroit, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 0-6 ATS off a home win
Detroit: 9-2 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs

Carolina at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 40-23 Under in the first month
Atlanta: 1-12 ATS at home after 3 wins ATS

San Francisco at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
San Francisco: 6-0 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite
NY Jets: 9-1 Over off a road win

San Diego at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 0-7 ATS where the total is between 42.5 and 45
Kansas City: 13-3 ATS after playing their last game on the road

Tennessee at Houston, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 11-2 Under in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49
Houston: 7-0 ATS after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game

Seattle at St. Louis, 1:00 ET
Seattle: 8-1 ATS after playing a game at home
St. Louis: 5-13 ATS in all lined games

Miami at Arizona, 4:05 ET
Miami: 13-4 Under in road lined games
Arizona: 5-15 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins

Oakland at Denver, 4:05 ET
Oakland: 6-0 ATS in road games versus division opponents
Denver: 51-29 Over as a home favorite of 7 points or less

Cincinnati at Jacksonville, 4:05 ET
Cincinnati: 4-17 ATS after allowing 200 or more rushing yards last game
Jacksonville: 10-2 ATS after trailing their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half

New Orleans at Green Bay, 4:25 ET
New Orleans: 32-17 Over against NFC North division opponents
Green Bay: 6-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread

Washington at Tampa Bay, 4:25 ET
Washington: 12-2 ATS in road games after gaining 175 or more rushing yards
Tampa Bay: 50-28 Under in the first month of the season

NY Giants at Philadelphia, 8:30 ET NBC
NY Giants: 9-2 ATS as an underdog
Philadelphia: 6-0 Under versus division opponents


Monday, October 1, 2012

Chicago at Dallas, 8:35 ET ESPN
Chicago: 6-0 ATS in road games after having won 2 out of their last 3
Dallas: 1-8 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins


** Week 4 Byes: Indianapolis, Pittsburgh **

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25142 Followers:33
09/27/2012 07:16 PM

NFL

Week 4

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Trend Report
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Thursday, September 27

8:20 PM
CLEVELAND vs. BALTIMORE
Cleveland is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Baltimore
Cleveland is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing Cleveland
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland


Sunday, September 30

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Minnesota is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games
St. Louis is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Seattle
St. Louis is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games when playing Seattle

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. BUFFALO
New England is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 6 games on the road
Buffalo is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against New England
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. HOUSTON
Tennessee is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing Houston
Houston is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
Houston is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tennessee

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. NY JETS
San Francisco is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road
San Francisco is 6-1 SU in their last 7 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 17 of the NY Jets last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Jets last 7 games when playing San Francisco

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. ATLANTA
Carolina is 3-11-2 ATS in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. KANSAS CITY
San Diego is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Kansas City's last 8 games at home
Kansas City is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against San Diego

4:05 PM
MIAMI vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami's last 9 games on the road
Miami is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games
Arizona is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games

4:05 PM
CINCINNATI vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 11 games on the road
Cincinnati is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Jacksonville's last 19 games
Jacksonville is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

4:05 PM
OAKLAND vs. DENVER
Oakland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland

4:15 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. GREEN BAY
New Orleans is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 8 games at home

4:15 PM
WASHINGTON vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing at home against Washington

8:20 PM
NY GIANTS vs. PHILADELPHIA
NY Giants are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games
Philadelphia is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing at home against NY Giants
Philadelphia is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games at home


Monday, October 1

8:30 PM
CHICAGO vs. DALLAS
Chicago is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago's last 10 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 10 games when playing Chicago
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25142 Followers:33
09/27/2012 07:16 PM

NFL

Week 4

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, September 27

8:20 PM
CLEVELAND vs. BALTIMORE
Cleveland is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Baltimore
Cleveland is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing Cleveland
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland


Sunday, September 30

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Minnesota is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games
St. Louis is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Seattle
St. Louis is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games when playing Seattle

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. BUFFALO
New England is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 6 games on the road
Buffalo is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against New England
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. HOUSTON
Tennessee is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing Houston
Houston is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
Houston is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tennessee

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. NY JETS
San Francisco is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road
San Francisco is 6-1 SU in their last 7 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 17 of the NY Jets last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Jets last 7 games when playing San Francisco

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. ATLANTA
Carolina is 3-11-2 ATS in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. KANSAS CITY
San Diego is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Kansas City's last 8 games at home
Kansas City is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against San Diego

4:05 PM
MIAMI vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami's last 9 games on the road
Miami is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games
Arizona is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games

4:05 PM
CINCINNATI vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 11 games on the road
Cincinnati is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Jacksonville's last 19 games
Jacksonville is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

4:05 PM
OAKLAND vs. DENVER
Oakland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland

4:15 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. GREEN BAY
New Orleans is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 8 games at home

4:15 PM
WASHINGTON vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing at home against Washington

8:20 PM
NY GIANTS vs. PHILADELPHIA
NY Giants are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games
Philadelphia is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing at home against NY Giants
Philadelphia is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games at home


Monday, October 1

8:30 PM
CHICAGO vs. DALLAS
Chicago is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago's last 10 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 10 games when playing Chicago
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: