cnotes Posts:24861 Followers:33
10/01/2012 07:20 PM

NFL

Week 4

Monday, October 1

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Tale of the tape: Bears at Cowboys
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Take a quick glance at the tale of the tape for Monday night’s showdown between the Chicago Bears and Dallas Cowboys.

Offense

Bears Pro Bowl RB Matt Forte resumed practicing this week after injuring his ankle against Green Bay in Week 2, but it's unknown how much - if at all - he'll play on Monday. Chicago's offense ranks 27th overall and 28th in passing with Jay Cutler at the helm. His passer rating of 58.6 is second worst among qualifiers, ahead of only Miami rookie Ryan Tannehill (58.3).

Dallas could use a little more help from DeMarco Murray. The running back had 131 yards in a season-opening win over the Giants but has totaled just 82 over the past two games. The Cowboys offense has been sputtering lately, producing just two touchdowns in the past eight quarters. Tight end Jason Witten and wideout Dez Bryant have yet to record a TD reception this season.

Edge: Tie


Defense

The Chicago defense recorded six of its league-best 14 sacks and forced two interceptions, one returned 45 yards for a TD by Major Wright in a convincing win over the Rams last week. The Bears boasts the sixth-ranked rushing defense, allowing only 76 yards per game and lead the league in third-down defense since Lovie Smith took over as coach. The Chicago stop unit has yielded first downs just 24.3 percent of the time this season on the oppositions’ third down.

Dallas held Tampa Bay to just 166 total yards en route to a 16-10 victory and leads the NFL in fewest yards allowed (250 YPG). Safety Gerald Sensabaugh, who missed last week’s game with a calf straight, expects to play on Monday and will have a keen eye on Bears WR Brandon Marshall.

Edge: Tie


Special teams

Bears special team’s coordinator Dave Toub said last week Devin Hester was close to breaking a return for a TD. Hester has had one kickoff return of at least 31 yards in each of the first three games and has punt returns of 19 and 23 yards.

The last time the Bears allowed a punt return TD was against the host Cowboys in Week 2 of 2010, when then rookie Dez Bryant rumbled for a 62-yard score. Bryant has a 44-yard return this season but is averaging just 6.4 yards.

Edge: Bears


Word on the street

"We've been around Tony (Romo) long enough that we can tell, based on his facial expressions, how he's feeling. He shows his emotions to us. So he doesn't have to say anything. We see what he's going through." – Cowboys offensive guard Nate Livings on the recent lack of protection the unit has provided QB Tony Romo.

“We try to get him the ball. It doesn’t always work out, like that one in the end zone (against the Rams on Sunday) that was designed for him. Basically it was a one-man route. We’re trying to find ways to get him the ball. Sometimes the coverage dictates we’re going to go to him, sometimes it doesn’t.” - Bears offensive coordinator Mike Tice on Hester’s recent frustration with his role within the team's offense.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24861 Followers:33
10/01/2012 07:21 PM

NFL

Week 4

Monday, October 1

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Bears at Cowboys: What bettors need to know
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Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 41.5)

Tony Romo and Jay Cutler have come under fire for less-than-stellar performances thus far this season. While their respective stat lines haven't been aesthetically pleasing, the end results have still been promising. Both quarterbacks will look to guide their respective teams to an impressive 3-1 start when Romo's Dallas Cowboys host the Chicago Bears on Monday night. The clubs rode solid defensive efforts to their victories last week as Dallas held Tampa Bay to just 166 total yards en route to a 16-10 victory. Not to be outdone, Chicago benefited from six of its NFL-leading 14 sacks in last week's 23-6 triumph over St. Louis. The Cowboys' beleaguered offensive line is on notice after committing several penalties while struggling with pass protection.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Cowboys -3.5, O/U 41.5.

ABOUT THE BEARS (2-1): Cutler has been erratic at best this season, and will now have to keep a wary eye on right outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware (four sacks). Left tackle J'Marcus Webb, who was on the receiving end of a sideline shove from Cutler, will bear most of the responsibility for protecting his quarterback. Pro Bowl RB Matt Forte resumed practicing after injuring his ankle against Green Bay in Week 2, but it's unknown how much - if at all - he'll play on Monday. Michael Bush had 55 yards last week and scored his third touchdown of the season.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (2-1): Dallas would be well served to get DeMarco Murray untracked. The Cowboys' starting rusher had an 11-yard touchdown last week, but mustered just 38 yards on 18 carries - with seven of those coming for a loss. Keeping Bears stud wide receiver Brandon Marshall in check would be wise as well. Marshall has scored a touchdown in both career contests versus Dallas, but he'll likely be paid a visit by Gerald Sensabaugh. The safety missed last week's game with a calf strain, but expects to play on Monday.

TRENDS:

* Under is 6-0 in Cowboys last six games overall.
* Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.
* Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five Monday games.
* Under is 7-3 in Bears’ last 10 road games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Dallas S Danny McCray will replace starter Barry Church, who underwent season-ending surgery to repair a torn Achilles tendon. In addition, the Cowboys signed punter Brian Moorman to fill in for an injured Chris Jones (sprained knee).

2. Cutler's passer rating of 58.6 is second worst among qualifiers, ahead of only Miami rookie Ryan Tannehill (58.3).

3. Although Dallas boasts big CBs Brandon Carr and rookie Morris Claiborne, no member of the team's secondary has an interception this season. Cutler, who has thrown six, is tied with Cleveland rookie Brandon Weeden and Philadelphia's Michael Vick for the most this season.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24861 Followers:33
10/01/2012 07:25 PM

MNF - Bears at Cowboys

September 30, 2012

The Week 4 card closes out in Arlington on Monday night with a pair of NFC squads hooking up. The Cowboys have alternated wins and losses in each of their first three contests, coming off last week's victory over the Buccaneers, while the Bears also seek consistency following a home triumph over the Rams.

Dallas started the season with an impressive road underdog showing against the rival Giants, 24-17, but the Cowboys failed to cover in a loss at Seattle and a 16-10 home win over Tampa Bay. Both ATS losses came in the favorite role, as Dallas owns a dreadful 4-17-1 ATS record when laying points since the start of the 2010 season. The Cowboys defense held the offensively inept Buccaneers in check, giving up an early touchdown and a field goal in the final minute, while allowing just 166 yards.

Chicago's defense has always been its staple and it showed again last week with a late interceptions return for a touchdown in a 23-6 rout of St. Louis as seven-point favorites. The Bears played without running back Matt Forte, who suffered an ankle injury in a Week 2 loss at Green Bay, but the Pro Bowler is expected back on Monday night. The Rams were held to 160 yards, while the Bears have given up just one offensive touchdown in the last two weeks.

The last time these two teams met up came in Week 2 of 2010 in Texas, as the Bears knocked off the Cowboys, 27-20 as seven-point underdogs. One of Dallas' two touchdowns came on a 62-yard punt return from Dez Bryant, while Jay Cutler carved up the Cowboys' defense for three touchdowns. Both clubs struggling running the ball, as the Bears rushed for 38 yards, while the Cowboys amassed 36 yards on the ground.

The Cowboys are known as America's Team, but they sure don't take care of business under the Monday night lights. Dallas has compiled a 1-6 ATS mark since 2006 on Mondays, but has found a way to win four of the last five straight-up in this situation. Last season, the Cowboys edged the Redskins in their only Monday night contest, 18-16 as three-point favorites, as Dan Bailey tied a rookie NFL record by kicking six field goals in the win.

Lovie Smith's club has won five of the last six Monday night games, while covering four of six Monday road contests since 2004. In 2011, the Bears split a pair of Monday nighters against Lions and Eagles, as Chicago lost, 24-13 at Detroit as seven-point underdogs. The Bears rebounded at Philadelphia in a 30-24 shootout win, cashing outright as 7 ½-point underdogs.

From a totals standpoint, Dallas' defense has stepped up by cashing the 'under' in all three games, while allowing just 17 points or less in both victories. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have combined to score just 23 points the last two weeks after tallying 24 points in the series opener at New York. The Bears look to duplicate a Week 1 effort against the Colts in which they scored 41 points, as Chicago has cashed the 'under' each of the last two weeks by tallying a combined 33 points.

The favorites have split the first four Monday night contests this season, but were on the verge of going 3-1 SU/ATS if it wasn't for the disputed touchdown at Seattle last Monday. The 'under' has hit in each of the last three Monday nighters following an 'over' in the Cincinnati/Baltimore opener.

The Cowboys are listed as 3 ½-point favorites in most spots, while the total is set at 41 ½. The game kicks off at 8:35 PM EST from Cowboys Stadium and can be seen nationally on ESPN.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24861 Followers:33
10/01/2012 07:25 PM

MNF - Bears at Cowboys

September 30, 2012

The Week 4 card closes out in Arlington on Monday night with a pair of NFC squads hooking up. The Cowboys have alternated wins and losses in each of their first three contests, coming off last week's victory over the Buccaneers, while the Bears also seek consistency following a home triumph over the Rams.

Dallas started the season with an impressive road underdog showing against the rival Giants, 24-17, but the Cowboys failed to cover in a loss at Seattle and a 16-10 home win over Tampa Bay. Both ATS losses came in the favorite role, as Dallas owns a dreadful 4-17-1 ATS record when laying points since the start of the 2010 season. The Cowboys defense held the offensively inept Buccaneers in check, giving up an early touchdown and a field goal in the final minute, while allowing just 166 yards.

Chicago's defense has always been its staple and it showed again last week with a late interceptions return for a touchdown in a 23-6 rout of St. Louis as seven-point favorites. The Bears played without running back Matt Forte, who suffered an ankle injury in a Week 2 loss at Green Bay, but the Pro Bowler is expected back on Monday night. The Rams were held to 160 yards, while the Bears have given up just one offensive touchdown in the last two weeks.

The last time these two teams met up came in Week 2 of 2010 in Texas, as the Bears knocked off the Cowboys, 27-20 as seven-point underdogs. One of Dallas' two touchdowns came on a 62-yard punt return from Dez Bryant, while Jay Cutler carved up the Cowboys' defense for three touchdowns. Both clubs struggling running the ball, as the Bears rushed for 38 yards, while the Cowboys amassed 36 yards on the ground.

The Cowboys are known as America's Team, but they sure don't take care of business under the Monday night lights. Dallas has compiled a 1-6 ATS mark since 2006 on Mondays, but has found a way to win four of the last five straight-up in this situation. Last season, the Cowboys edged the Redskins in their only Monday night contest, 18-16 as three-point favorites, as Dan Bailey tied a rookie NFL record by kicking six field goals in the win.

Lovie Smith's club has won five of the last six Monday night games, while covering four of six Monday road contests since 2004. In 2011, the Bears split a pair of Monday nighters against Lions and Eagles, as Chicago lost, 24-13 at Detroit as seven-point underdogs. The Bears rebounded at Philadelphia in a 30-24 shootout win, cashing outright as 7 ½-point underdogs.

From a totals standpoint, Dallas' defense has stepped up by cashing the 'under' in all three games, while allowing just 17 points or less in both victories. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have combined to score just 23 points the last two weeks after tallying 24 points in the series opener at New York. The Bears look to duplicate a Week 1 effort against the Colts in which they scored 41 points, as Chicago has cashed the 'under' each of the last two weeks by tallying a combined 33 points.

The favorites have split the first four Monday night contests this season, but were on the verge of going 3-1 SU/ATS if it wasn't for the disputed touchdown at Seattle last Monday. The 'under' has hit in each of the last three Monday nighters following an 'over' in the Cincinnati/Baltimore opener.

The Cowboys are listed as 3 ½-point favorites in most spots, while the total is set at 41 ½. The game kicks off at 8:35 PM EST from Cowboys Stadium and can be seen nationally on ESPN.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24861 Followers:33
10/01/2012 07:26 PM

NFL Week 4 Preview: Bears at Cowboys

CHICAGO BEARS (2-1)

at DALLAS COWBOYS (2-1)


Kickoff: Monday, 8:35 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -3, Total: 41½

A pair of 2-1 teams close out Week 4 with a marquee Monday night matchup when Dallas hosts Chicago.

Both of these teams are still feeling their way offensively, as the Bears have been without RB Matt Forte (ankle) and QB Jay Cutler is playing erratic. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have failed to move the ball the past two games after an impressive opening win against the Giants. Chicago had just 168 yards of offense and four turnovers in its Week 2 loss at Green Bay, and a mere 274 yards in last week’s home win over the Rams. The probable return of Forte should help jump-start the offense. Dallas has been riding its much-improved defense this year, and it smothered the Bucs in Week 3 despite having to move newly signed top CB Brandon Carr to safety in their increasingly patchwork secondary.

Which team will prevail on Monday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Cutler has completed just 52.7% of his passes for 642 yards, 3 TD and 6 INT this season, while taking 11 sacks. However, in his lone trip to Dallas two years ago, Cutler lit up the Cowboys for 277 yards on 21-of-29 completions, throwing 3 TD and 0 INT in a 27-20 victory. Forte was held to 29 yards on 10 carries in that meeting, but in his only full game this season, he compiled 120 total yards and a touchdown in a 41-21 win over Indianapolis. Michael Bush has gotten the full workload with Forte out, but Bush hasn’t done much in the past two games, apparently slowed by a shoulder injury, rushing for just 109 yards on 32 carries (3.4 YPC). Cutler has been zeroing in on his favorite target, WR Brandon Marshall, probably too much as he’s thrown exactly one-third of his passes to his former Denver teammate. Marshall has 16 catches for 214 yards, but no other Chicago player has even 10 receptions in the three games. Defensively, the Bears have been strong in both facets, ranking sixth in the NFL in both rushing defense (76 YPG) and passing defense (203 YPG). These yardage numbers have been kept to a minimum thanks to nine forced turnovers in three games.

The Cowboys need more balance on offense, ranking 13th in the NFL in passing (265 YPG), but fifth-worst in rushing yards (77 YPG). This team was most certainly not balanced the last time they faced Chicago in 2010, as Tony Romo threw for 374 yards, but the rushing offense gained a paltry 36 yards on 20 carries. In the past two weeks versus Seattle and Tampa Bay, Dallas has gained a pathetic 87 yards on 39 carries (2.2 YPC). DeMarco Murray, who had 131 rushing yards on 6.6 YPC in Week 1, has just 82 rushing yards on 2.7 YPC over these past two weeks. One of the reasons Dallas has thrown so often is because Romo has great depth in his receiving corps as four receivers have gotten a nearly equal amount of targets -- WR Miles Austin (22 targets), TE Jason Witten (21 targets), WR Kevin Ogletree (20 targets) and WR Dez Bryant (20 targets). Defensively, OLB DeMarcus Ware has sparked the pass rush with four sacks, but the team has just one interception all season, by LB Sean Lee. However, Dallas still ranks second in the NFL in passing defense (137 YPG) despite three injured safeties -- Gerald Sensabaugh (calf), Matt Johnson (hamstring) and Barry Church (Achilles). Also, DTs Jay Ratliff (ankle) and Kenyon Coleman (knee) are both questionable for Monday night.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24861 Followers:33
10/01/2012 07:29 PM

Bettors strike back!

October 1, 2012

Everyone loves a good comeback story which is why we always enjoy some variation of the little guy making good at the end of a movie or book. It’s inspirational, uplifting and makes us feel good about the possibilities we all have within ourselves to perceiver against the odds a system stacks against us. It doesn’t matter whether it’s Rocky Balboa, Billy Jack or even Return of the Jedi, we all can’t get enough of that type of feel-good story that avenges some past wounds.
Here in Las Vegas, we had a story of vengeance fulfilled and pride restored as the bettors finally got the best of the sportsbooks in Week 4 of NFL action. The first three weeks of the season got progressively worse for the player, and Week 3 was the point in a typical Hollywood script where you felt the most sympathy for the character wronged.

The wronged in this story was the bettor. The evil tyrant is the Las Vegas sports book. But there was no back story involving mischief by the book like a power hungry mayor squeezing upon his small town citizens. Bettors could have just as easily bet the winning side over the first three weeks just as they did the losing side. But it’s a hard sell.

The recreational bettor loves to play the favorites. They can‘t help it, whether it’s a straight bet, point-spread parlay, money-line parlay or teasers. In all facets during Week 3, they got crushed by the sports books. It may be a lousy strategy to side with the favorites weekly, but it’s hard to change habits, especially when a few teams in the past have produced nice consistent pay days.

In Week 4, instead of jumping off the wagon on a few teams, bettors tried a new strategy by cautiously playing some of their favorite teams on the money-line and teasers. The payouts are less, but it helped them all exact revenge and force the books to feel some of the pain they’ve felt through this young football season.

The root of all strategies began with taking the Patriots laying four points at Buffalo and the 49ers laying 4 ½-points at the Jets. While it looked like the Bills would provide another upset the books have been ringing in the cash register with all season -- up 21-7 early in the third-quarter, the Patriots showed their faithful some of the magic they all remembered from days of yesteryear in a 52-28 blowout.

The 49ers have been one of the top bet teams all season, and despite losing last week at Minnesota, bettors stayed the course and rode out the mini-storm. And it paid off as the 49ers thoroughly dominated the Jets, 34-0.

From there, the rest of the Sunday was gravy. In addition to 13-to-5 odds (Bet $100 to win $260) being paid on parlays from the Patriots and 49ers to almost everyone, the two teams started an avalanche of larger parlays and teasers.

The game that gave long life to money-line parlays and teasers on the day was the Falcons 30-28 win against the Panthers. The Falcons were a popular choice laying seven, which didn’t cover, but their link to the rest of the day on money-line parlays and teasers assured the books that they were in a no-win situation.

When you throw in the Broncos 37-6 win over the Raiders and the Texans 38-14 blowout over the Titans, the liability just continued to grow. And then the books had the all-way teaser payouts -- both sides and both totals -- on the Cardinals 24-21 over the Dolphins and the Redskins 24-22 win at Tampa Bay.

The only hope the sports books had of salvaging something at the end of the day was the Eagles covering 2 ½-points at home against the Giants. As fate would have it, the Eagles won by two, 19-17. The UNDER was good for the house, but the Eagles 2-point win was the defining blow in the script finale.

Overall, the weekend was awful for the sports books, and it wasn’t just the NFL. Saturday’s college football action was sort of a push with small winners or losers around town, a big change from the consistent win through the first four weeks of action.

Perhaps the worst part for the books has been the daily losses in baseball as the big favorites seem to be getting there, not just on the money-line, but on the run-line as well. The only silver lining here has been that baseball has been on the back-burner ever since football started. Had baseball been front and center like it was in July, with these types of favorites coming in, Saturday and Sunday would have been an absolute blood bath for the books.

Each week the wind seems to blow in a different direction, but let what happened in Week 4 of the NFL be a friendly reminder of how to beat the books. There is a reason why NFL teasers pay less than college and it’s because the spreads are sharper and more dependable. When you can add 6 to 7 points on any of the pro lines, you’re getting the best of the value. Also, two-team parlays are the extent of where real value lies within the parlays, unless we’re discussing several line moves on a stale parlay card in your favor.

Week 5 has some great opportunities, go get ’em, and may the force be with you.

Jets out of Fuel

When watching quarterback Mark Sanchez stink up his own stadium Sunday against the 49ers, you have to wonder what is going through coach Rex Ryan’s mind. Most of us figured at some point that Tim Tebow would be taking over the helm as starting quarterback for the Jets, but no one figured that he would be treated like some kind of pariah through the first four weeks.

When Ryan brought in Tebow, he talked openly about all the things he would bring to the Jets in key short-yardage situations and his skills inside the red zone, all attributes he has yet to utilize. He’s watched Sanchez week after week struggle in goal line situations and last week may have been the worst.

So the question is - why did Ryan bring in Tebow? There are so many areas offensively -- their weak link -- that Tebow could improve upon, especially in their running game. Ryan loves to pound the ball on the ground and he hates turnovers, yet he uses Sanchez in every situation and eliminates so much potential by not including Tebow anywhere.

The fear could probably be knowing that once Tebow gets in, there’s no way to take him out because of success, the same type of success John Elway hated in Denver. Ryan loves Tebow, so the problem is probably more deep rooted within the Jets’ executives. It may take another ineffective week of Sanchez for the entire nation to watch on Monday night against the Texans this week for senses to kick in and say a change is needed. Right now, it looks like their best option to win is by letting Tebow run the show.

Love him or hate him, there’s no denying that Tebow in the spread option is hard to defend and above all, he's a winner. The Jets could sure use some of that right now.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24861 Followers:33
10/01/2012 07:53 PM

Monday, October 1

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chicago - 8:30 PM ET Dallas -3.5 500

Dallas - Under 41.5 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: