cnotes Posts:27427 Followers:33
09/30/2012 11:51 AM

NFL

Week 4

Sunday, September 30

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Saints at Packers: What bettors need to know
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New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-9, 53)

Drew Brees recently said the replacement referees were “an embarrassment to the league.” Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers agreed. The good news is the regular referees will be back on the field - the NFLRA and the league reached an agreement late Wednesday - when the Packers try to rebound and send the the New Orleans Saints to just their second 0-4 start in 16 seasons Sunday at Lambeau Field. Brees’ Saints may be searching for answers after blowing an 18-point lead to fall to 0-3 last week, but the Packers are feeling the biggest losers heading into their Week 4 matchup after being robbed of a win Monday night.

Green Bay was leading Seattle 12-7 when the replacement referees ruled that Golden Tate hauled in a Hail Mary and upheld the call upon review, despite visual evidence that showed M.D. Jennings clearly had made a game-clinching interception. The backlash quickly forced a deal between the league and the officials. This is the first meeting since the memorable 2011 season-opening shootout that was won by the Packers 42-34 thanks to a last-second goal-line stand.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Packers -9, O/U 53

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s and sunny skies at Lambeau Field. Winds will be light out of east.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (0-3): Who ‘Dat? The answer, lately, is everyone. The Saints, who are still dealing with the fallout of Bountygate, are 0-3 for the first time since 2007 after losing to Kansas City 27-24 in overtime last week. Brees, who signed a five-year, $100 million contract this summer, hasn’t looked the same without suspended head coach Sean Payton calling the plays, and the defense has been atrocious (league-worst 477.3 ypg). Brees broke his own completion percentage record last season (71.6), but is connecting on just 54.7 percent of his attempts, the lowest rate since he became a full-time starter. He has a pedestrian touchdown-to-interception ratio (7 TDs, 5 INTs). Brees’ main target has been running back Darren Sproles, who leads the team with 18 catches. The speedy Sproles failed to record a reception for the first time since 2010 last week. Meanwhile, TE Jimmy Graham has a touchdown catch in six straight games.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (1-2): Green Bay is seething after having a game literally ripped away from it on Monday night. Several Packers players took to Twitter, bashing the league and the outcome. But they have other issues to address, mainly the fact that Rodgers has been sacked more times (16) than any quarterback after being taken down eight times in the first half of Monday’s loss. The poor protection has led to the Packers being ranked 24th in scoring (19.0). Like Brees, something is amiss about Rodgers as well. After throwing 45 touchdowns last season, the reigning league MVP has just three thus far. Green Bay’s defense is markedly improved, perhaps in part to Charles Woodson’s move to safety, and is No. 1 in the league against the pass (125.3 ypg). Linebacker Clay Matthews is well on his way to a bounce-back season, leading the league with six sacks.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. “(The) 13th man beat us tonight.” – a tweet from Green Bay tight end Tom Crabtree in reference to Seattle’s famed 12th man – the 13th man being the officials.

2. The Saints are 2-9 on the road against the Packers.

3. New Orleans didn’t record a single first down in its final 12 offensive snaps last week. Brees was 0-for-6 in the fourth quarter and overtime.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27427 Followers:33
09/30/2012 11:53 AM

NFL weather watch: Six matchups threatened by rain

NFL game weather and resulting stadium conditions can have a significant impact on player performance and the outcome of football games. Bettors should take weather conditions into consideration, especially when placing over/under wagers.

Here are the matchups being threatened by inclement weather Sunday:

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (4, 48.5)

Site: Ralph Wilson Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s with a 60 percent chance of showers. Winds will be light out of the north.

San Francisco 49ers at New York Jets (4, 41)

Site: MetLife Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-60s with a 30 percent of precipitation. Winds will blow out of the west at 5 mph.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-7, 48.5)

Site: Sports Authority Field at Mile High

Forecasts are calling for mild temperatures in the low-70s with a slight 15 percent of rain. Winds will blow out of the north at 11 mph.

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (1, 44.5)

Site: EverBank Field

It will be a hot and humid day in Florida. Temperatures are expected to soar into the high-80s with a 60 percent chance thunderstorms throughout the afternoon. Winds will be light out of the east.

Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1, 47.5)

Site: Raymond James Stadium

Forecasts are predicting temperatures in the high-80s with a 20 percent of thunderstorms in the Tampa area. Winds will blow out of the south at 10 mph.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-1, 47)

Forecasts suggest temperatures will dip into the high-50s for the Sunday nighter. There is also a 65 percent chance of showers and winds will blow out of the west at 7 mph

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27427 Followers:33
09/30/2012 11:55 AM

Las Vegas Money Moves

September 29, 2012

It’s been a wild week in Las Vegas with all the hoopla surrounding the bad call in Monday night’s Packers-Seahawks game. Because the story was so big and the play of Golden Tate cleverly taking the ball away for the winning score was replayed by ESPN for almost 48 straight hours in Tim Tebow-like coverage from last season, one of the stories that found its way into the mainstream was the swing Las Vegas sports books took on the one play.

Reports came from all over the place with all kinds of misinformation being spread around due to writers misquoting sports book directors and also gathering their information from other unworthy sources such as Danny Sheridan, who was always one of my favorites growing up, but never realized how irrelevant he was to the betting world until I started working in a sports book.

Outlandish claims of a $1 billion swing on the game around the world was the headline that grabbed the most attention. It’s hard enough gathering quality factual information in Nevada where the betting is regulating and charted, let alone coming up with a figure for the entire world. But facts didn’t seem to matter in the story. The wow factor of $1 billion was enough to show the magnitude of the bad call on the most sensationalized level. Someone could have really got big headlines by saying they thought the swing was worth $2 billion, or why even stop there, $3 billion. Now that's a story.

The truth of the matter in Nevada was that there was anywhere from $10 to $15 million wagered on the game with about a $2 to $5 million swing on the game, not a $15 million swing as some were misquoted. People around the country wanted to make believe like this game was bet on Super Bowl proportions with a huge decision at stake, but there were several games that the books won more with on Sunday. Although the Seahawks winning was beneficial for most books, the deciding factor in the game was more about the game staying UNDER the total, as is the case for most high-profile isolated games.

The two-team parlay, with either side to the UNDER was what most books -- particularly the local books -- were sweating. I mention the local books because they are collectively the busiest in the state on a Monday night with volume, compared to the strip properties that have their occupancy fall by up to 50% with guest leaving on Sunday. Walk down the strip on a Monday through Thursday when a convention isn’t in town; it’s a ghost town compared to Friday through Sunday.

The spillover effect carried on all week as some sports books tried to make a marketing ploy out of the publicity, which I like. Why not make a splash and ride the wave of a story? Irish bookmaker Paddy Power immediately jumped into the fray with refunds on the Packers as part of their “Justice Payouts” their known for whenever an official or judge makes a bad call.

Here in Las Vegas, no one wanted to enter that territory. It’s a bad precedent to set -- refunding losing wagers. But one casino said the heck with it, and did it anyway despite the chain of sports books they’re affiliated with apparently not knowing anything about it. The D casino on Fremont, formerly the Fitzgerald, sent out a press release on Wednesday saying they would refund all wagers. William Hill runs their sports book, but couldn’t stop the casino promotion if they wanted to. If the boss wants to refund wagers by hand paying at the cage, that’s his choice.

The sports book at the D gets very limited action and it would be a fair estimation to say the wagers on the Packers totaled less than $10,000, and probably only half of that will be cashed in between tickets being ripped up, or others not knowing about the promotion. The likes of Floyd Mayweather do not make their bets at the D.

William Hill sports books didn’t follow suit with the payout at all their books, but they did offer a nice gesture to everyone betting the Packers this week. All wagers on the Packers will be offered at EVEN money with no juice attached. It’s not a refund, but it’s still a nice way to gain some publicity off a such a unique situation. And instead of losing $110 on the Packers this week, you might only lose $100.

Week 4 Line Moves

Either because bettors are busted from the past two weeks of getting mugged by the sports books, or they are skeptical of the lines and indecisive, the action has been light this week with not a lot of movement.

The Packers have held steady at -7 ½ for most of the week for their home game against the Saints. There was a bump up to -8 on Tuesday, but that number was gone by Wednesday. Both teams are combined 1-5 straight-up and against-the-spread this season.

The Patriots could lose their third straight game for the first time in 10 years, but bettors aren’t buying into it. The Pats opened -3 and have been bet up -4 for their game at Buffalo. The total in this game is the puzzling part, as it's gone down from 51 to 50. In last season;s game at Buffalo, the Bills won, 34-31.

Sports books didn’t have a line posted on the Lions all week because of Matthew Stafford’s questionable status (hip), but when he was upgraded to probable, the books posted a number of -4 at home against the Vikings as if Shaun hill was going to be starting. This game was set to be at least -7.5 with Stafford playing. Expect a run on the game and if you like the Lions, get it now.

The Panthers found a little support this week in their road game at Atlanta. Despite the Falcons being perfect in virtually every category imaginable, and the Panthers looking awful last Thursday night, the Panthers went from +7 ½ to +7.

The 49ers are staying in the Eastern time zone this week -- no travel back to San Francisco following the Minnesota game, just as they did last season when they had back-to-back road games afar. The 49ers opened as three-point favorites against the Jets and have been bet up -4.

The Cardinals have been the underdog in each of their first three games, and won them all. This week they opened as a seven-point home favorites against the Dolphins. Money came in on the Dolphins immediately, dropping the game to -6.5. And then on Thursday, after Reggie Bush was announced to be playing, the game dropped to -5.5.

The Broncos have lost four straight home games to the Raiders, and haven’t covered their past six, but they still opened as 6 ½-point favorites and have been bet up to -7. Peyton Manning has gotten off to slow starts in each of his three starts this season, leading to a disappointing 1-2 record, a start that some believe Tebow could have matched.

It’s apparent that the Redskins are going to score a lot of points this season, but also give up a ton too, which makes the total dropping in their game at Tampa Bay a little perplexing. The total opened at 48 ½ and has been bet down to 47 ½, likely because of the Bucs defense looking to be their strength. The money has been on the Redskins side as bettors took +3, dropping the line to +2 ½.

The Eagles opened as three-point favorites for their Sunday night home game against the Giants, but G-Men money dropped the game to -1. When it was announced that Hakeem Nicks would not play, the game moved back up to -2 ½. The Nicks angle didn’t work out too well for bettors who jumped on the Panthers under the same circumstances last Thursday

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27427 Followers:33
09/30/2012 11:58 AM

Total Talk - Week 4

September 29, 2012

Week 2 Recap

The 'under' produced a 10-6 record in Week 3 and almost all of the outcomes were on great paces at halftime. The Dolphins and Jets was one exception, as the two teams turned a 7-6 game at the break into a 23-20 final. Also, Arizona led Philadelphia 24-0 after two quarters but neither team could execute in the second-half and gamblers saw the 27-6 final score go 'under' the closing number of 42. On the year, the 'under' stands at 25-23 through 48 games.

Early Thoughts

I've often been asked by users how I handicap totals in the NFL. Everybody has their own unique style but I believe the starting point is the matchup between the offensive and defensive units for the teams involved. VegasInsider.com has plenty of power ratings available, where you can differentiate those units.

I personally put more stock into yards gained and yards allowed, rather than points scored and allowed. If you can move the chains consistently, you'll eventually score. And if you can force three-and-outs, teams won't score. The perfect combination for an 'over' team is a great offense and bad defense. Conversely, a great 'under' club has a sound defense and an inconsistent offense. It's pretty simple to grasp and you can see those facts have already played out.

Cincinnati and Washington are the only teams to see all three of their games go 'over' the number this season. Most would assume it's the offense that's the reason behind those results, but the lack of defense shouldn't go unnoticed. The Bengals (416) and Redskins (429) are ranked 29th and 30th in yards allowed.

Dallas (250) and Houston (255) own the two best defensive units in the NFL in terms of yards allowed and to no surprise, the Cowboys (3-0) and Texans (2-1) have combined for a 5-1 'under' mark. Similar to Dallas, the Cardinals and Seahawks both own 3-0 records to the 'under' and both have stout defensive units, plus the aforementioned inconsistent offense.

Head-to-Head Trends

New England at Buffalo: The Patriots have scored 49, 31, 34 and 38 in the last four encounters with the Bills, which has helped the 'over' go 3-1 during this span
Minnesota at Detroit: The 'over' went 2-0 last year but the 'under' was on a 6-0 prior to 2011
Carolina at Atlanta: Last year, the total went 1-1 but the combined points were 48 and 54
San Diego at Kansas City: The 'under' has cashed in four straight here and the total is hovering in the same neighborhood
Tennessee at Houston: Three straight 'over' tickets in this series
Seattle at St. Louis: The 'under' is on a 3-1 run in this series
Oakland at Denver: The 'over' has gone 5-0 in the last five encounters
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia: Three of the last four have gone 'under'

Line Moves

Week 3 had eight games that saw the line move 1 ½ points or more at CRIS. Unlike Week 2 when the moves went 1-4 overall, the action came out on top in Week 3 with a 7-1 record. Here are the totals that have been adjusted by 1 ½ points or more at CRIS.

Minnesota at Detroit: Line opened 47 and jumped to 48 1/2
Carolina at Atlanta: Line opened 50 and dropped 48 1/2
San Diego at Kansas City: Line opened 46 and dropped 44 ½
Seattle at St. Louis: Line opened 40 ½ and dropped to 39
Miami at Arizona: Line opened 41 and dropped to 39
Cincinnati at Jacksonville: Line opened 41 ½ and jumped to 44 1/2
Washington at Tampa Bay: Line opened 49 and dropped to 47 1/2
Chicago at Dallas: Line opened 45 and dropped to 41 ½

50-Spots

Based on closing numbers, there have been six games this season with totals listed at 50 or higher. The 'under' has gone 4-2 in those contests and three of the six have had New Orleans involved. The Saints saw their first two games go 'over' as they gave up 40 and 35 points to the Redskins and Panthers respectively. Last week, New Orleans lost to the Chiefs 27-24 in overtime and despite the high output, the game closed at 51 ½ points and stayed 'under.'

This week, the Saints head to Green Bay and once again the total is in the fifties but the number might be too high here. The line opened 54 and has already dropped to 53 at most outfits. If you look at the matchup based on past history, you would lean to the 'over.'

However, Green Bay's offense is far behind its defense, which is real good. We understand the Saints' defense is awful (34 PPG, 477 YPG), but their offense isn't clicking and it looked horrible last week (288 yards) against the Chiefs, especially quarterback Drew Brees, who failed to complete a pass in the fourth quarter or overtime during last week's home setback.

Last year, this pair put up 76 points in the 2011 Week 1 opener at Lambeau Field and the 'over' ticket (47) was never in doubt. If you're smart, forget that outcome and expect a complete change on Sunday.

Under the Lights

Including Thursday's affair between the Browns and Ravens, the 'under' has now produced an 8-3 (73%) record in primetime games.

Fearless Predictions

Just like that, we're in the black! After losing $220 in Week 2, we swept all of the wagers for a profit of $400 based on one-unit plays. With season profits of $180, let's try to keep it rolling. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!

Best Over: New England-Buffalo 50 1/2

Best Under: Chicago-Dallas 41 1/2

Best Team Total: Under St. Louis 18 1/2

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 42 ½ New England-Buffalo
Under 48 Seattle-St. Louis
Under 62 New Orleans-Green Bay

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27427 Followers:33
09/30/2012 11:58 AM

Total Talk - Week 4

September 29, 2012

Week 2 Recap

The 'under' produced a 10-6 record in Week 3 and almost all of the outcomes were on great paces at halftime. The Dolphins and Jets was one exception, as the two teams turned a 7-6 game at the break into a 23-20 final. Also, Arizona led Philadelphia 24-0 after two quarters but neither team could execute in the second-half and gamblers saw the 27-6 final score go 'under' the closing number of 42. On the year, the 'under' stands at 25-23 through 48 games.

Early Thoughts

I've often been asked by users how I handicap totals in the NFL. Everybody has their own unique style but I believe the starting point is the matchup between the offensive and defensive units for the teams involved. VegasInsider.com has plenty of power ratings available, where you can differentiate those units.

I personally put more stock into yards gained and yards allowed, rather than points scored and allowed. If you can move the chains consistently, you'll eventually score. And if you can force three-and-outs, teams won't score. The perfect combination for an 'over' team is a great offense and bad defense. Conversely, a great 'under' club has a sound defense and an inconsistent offense. It's pretty simple to grasp and you can see those facts have already played out.

Cincinnati and Washington are the only teams to see all three of their games go 'over' the number this season. Most would assume it's the offense that's the reason behind those results, but the lack of defense shouldn't go unnoticed. The Bengals (416) and Redskins (429) are ranked 29th and 30th in yards allowed.

Dallas (250) and Houston (255) own the two best defensive units in the NFL in terms of yards allowed and to no surprise, the Cowboys (3-0) and Texans (2-1) have combined for a 5-1 'under' mark. Similar to Dallas, the Cardinals and Seahawks both own 3-0 records to the 'under' and both have stout defensive units, plus the aforementioned inconsistent offense.

Head-to-Head Trends

New England at Buffalo: The Patriots have scored 49, 31, 34 and 38 in the last four encounters with the Bills, which has helped the 'over' go 3-1 during this span
Minnesota at Detroit: The 'over' went 2-0 last year but the 'under' was on a 6-0 prior to 2011
Carolina at Atlanta: Last year, the total went 1-1 but the combined points were 48 and 54
San Diego at Kansas City: The 'under' has cashed in four straight here and the total is hovering in the same neighborhood
Tennessee at Houston: Three straight 'over' tickets in this series
Seattle at St. Louis: The 'under' is on a 3-1 run in this series
Oakland at Denver: The 'over' has gone 5-0 in the last five encounters
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia: Three of the last four have gone 'under'

Line Moves

Week 3 had eight games that saw the line move 1 ½ points or more at CRIS. Unlike Week 2 when the moves went 1-4 overall, the action came out on top in Week 3 with a 7-1 record. Here are the totals that have been adjusted by 1 ½ points or more at CRIS.

Minnesota at Detroit: Line opened 47 and jumped to 48 1/2
Carolina at Atlanta: Line opened 50 and dropped 48 1/2
San Diego at Kansas City: Line opened 46 and dropped 44 ½
Seattle at St. Louis: Line opened 40 ½ and dropped to 39
Miami at Arizona: Line opened 41 and dropped to 39
Cincinnati at Jacksonville: Line opened 41 ½ and jumped to 44 1/2
Washington at Tampa Bay: Line opened 49 and dropped to 47 1/2
Chicago at Dallas: Line opened 45 and dropped to 41 ½

50-Spots

Based on closing numbers, there have been six games this season with totals listed at 50 or higher. The 'under' has gone 4-2 in those contests and three of the six have had New Orleans involved. The Saints saw their first two games go 'over' as they gave up 40 and 35 points to the Redskins and Panthers respectively. Last week, New Orleans lost to the Chiefs 27-24 in overtime and despite the high output, the game closed at 51 ½ points and stayed 'under.'

This week, the Saints head to Green Bay and once again the total is in the fifties but the number might be too high here. The line opened 54 and has already dropped to 53 at most outfits. If you look at the matchup based on past history, you would lean to the 'over.'

However, Green Bay's offense is far behind its defense, which is real good. We understand the Saints' defense is awful (34 PPG, 477 YPG), but their offense isn't clicking and it looked horrible last week (288 yards) against the Chiefs, especially quarterback Drew Brees, who failed to complete a pass in the fourth quarter or overtime during last week's home setback.

Last year, this pair put up 76 points in the 2011 Week 1 opener at Lambeau Field and the 'over' ticket (47) was never in doubt. If you're smart, forget that outcome and expect a complete change on Sunday.

Under the Lights

Including Thursday's affair between the Browns and Ravens, the 'under' has now produced an 8-3 (73%) record in primetime games.

Fearless Predictions

Just like that, we're in the black! After losing $220 in Week 2, we swept all of the wagers for a profit of $400 based on one-unit plays. With season profits of $180, let's try to keep it rolling. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!

Best Over: New England-Buffalo 50 1/2

Best Under: Chicago-Dallas 41 1/2

Best Team Total: Under St. Louis 18 1/2

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 42 ½ New England-Buffalo
Under 48 Seattle-St. Louis
Under 62 New Orleans-Green Bay

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27427 Followers:33
09/30/2012 12:50 PM

NFL

Sunday, September 30

Game Score Status Pick Amount

New England - 1:00 PM ET New England -4 500 ( GOM )
Buffalo - Under 48.5 500

Tennessee - 1:00 PM ET Houston -13 500
Houston - Over 45 500

San Diego - 1:00 PM ET Kansas City +1 500
Kansas City - Under 44 500

Minnesota - 1:00 PM ET Minnesota +3.5 500
Detroit - Under 48.5 500

Carolina - 1:00 PM ET Carolina +7 500
Atlanta - Over 48 500

Seattle - 1:00 PM ET St. Louis +2.5 500
St. Louis - Over 39.5 500

San Francisco - 1:00 PM ET San Francisco -3.5 500
N.Y. Jets - Over 40.5 500

More later.....GOOD LUCK !

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27427 Followers:33
09/30/2012 02:45 PM

Late Plays:

Miami - 4:05 PM ET Miami +4.5 500
Arizona - Under 40.5 500

Oakland - 4:05 PM ET Denver -6.5 500
Denver - Under 48 500

Cincinnati - 4:05 PM ET Jacksonville -1 500
Jacksonville - Over 44.5 500

New Orleans - 4:25 PM ET Green Bay -9 500
Green Bay - Over 53.5 500

Washington - 4:25 PM ET Washington +1 500
Tampa Bay - Under 45.5 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27427 Followers:33
09/30/2012 07:25 PM


N.Y. Giants - 8:20 PM ET N.Y. Giants +1 500

Philadelphia - Under 46.5 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27427 Followers:33
10/01/2012 07:17 PM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Leftover stuff from Saturday's college action, and some baseball......

-- Middle Tennessee 49, Georgia Tech 28. Can't be good for the ACC's power rating. Option-loving Tech actually threw the ball 26 times.

-- Derek Carr threw for 536 yards in Fresno State's 52-40 win against San Diego State; Carr's older brother David is backup QB for the Giants.

-- Oklahoma State has 66 players on its roster from Texas.

-- Braves beat the Mets, their 23rd straight win with Kris Medlen as the starting pitcher. Odd thing is, his first 2012 start wasn't until July 31.

-- Detroit Tigers won 2-1 in Minnesota, now have a 3-game lead over the freefalling White Sox in the AL Central.

-- Yoenis Cespedes broke a 2-2 tie with an 8th-inning homer as the gritty Oakland A's beat Seattle 5-2; their seemingly-impossible dream of making the playoffs is close to becoming a reality.

Why didn't ESPN have a baseball game on Sunday night?


********


Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend.............

13) Arizona Cardinals converted a 4th-and-10 play for the tying TD and beat Miami 24-21 in OT, making them 4-0 for the first time in 38 years. Redbirds have now won 10 games in a row that were decided by less than seven points.

12) Minnesota Vikings didn't score an offensive TD at Detroit, but they did run a kickoff and a punt back for TDs, upsetting the Lions 20-13 at Ford Field. Detroit (3 takeaways, -3) is finding ways to lose so far this season.

11) Jets got bamboozled 34-0 at home by the 49ers, getting outrushed by 200 yards; now we'll find out if Rex Ryan can coach, if he can take a bad situation and somehow make it better. Jets are 2-2, its not a disaster yet, but it sure looks like its headed that way.

Jets completed 14-30 passes, were 2-13 on 3rd down and lost the battle for field position by 15 yards. Other than that, they played great.

10) NFL teams are now 14-2 this season when they win field position battle by 10+ yards (5-0 this week).

9) The five most popular picks in the LVH Handicapping Contest (people pick 5 teams a week, $1,500 for the year) all covered the spread Sunday. Of the six least popular picks Sunday, only one (Saints) covered.

8) If you care about such things, underdogs are 8-6 this week, 36-26 for season. Home teams are 4-10 this week (10-20 last two weeks), over was 7-7 going into the Monday night game.

7) On their first seven drives Sunday, Patriots had a TD, missed two FGs, and ran 41 plays for 250 yards.

On their last seven drives, New England ran 39 plays for 337 yards, good for six TDs and a field goal.

Did I mention they scored 45 points in the second half?

6) Redskins' four games have been decided by total of 20 points; RGIII is fun to watch, but they missed three FGs in a row before Billy Cundiff hit the game-winner, which probably saves his job (for this week).

5) Red zone offenses averaged 4.96 points/possession this week, up from last week. There were 107 plays of 20+ yards this week, for an average of 4.11 per team, up a ltitle this week.

Seattle Seahawks are the first team this season to not have one play of 20+ yards in a game.

4) Raiders won their last four visits to Denver, but they got squashed Sunday, losing 37-6 in game where Broncos won 21 of 28 3rd down plays. Manning was 30-39/338 passing and looked very, very sharp.

3) Why was Jacksonville favored over the Bengals? I know that money drives who is and isn't favored, but who is plunking money down on Blaine Gabbard? Line moved to Jacksonville being favored late Saturday night, and that takes a decent amount of cash. Go figure.

2) Impressive win by the Chargers, bouncing back from last week's loss and crushing Kansas City on the road. Have to wonder about 1-3 Chiefs, who were down 24-6 to the 0-4 Saints in their only win.

1) My Rams are 2-2 and a spunky bunch, but the two wins came against rookie QBs. They'll need improvement on OL to beat the better teams, when they'll need to score more than one TD a game.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27427 Followers:33
10/01/2012 07:18 PM

Monday's betting tips: Bears' Forte questionable vs. Cowboys

Weather watch

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals: Forecasts are calling for clear skies in Washington until around 10 p.m. local time, when there’s a 30 percent chance of showers.

Betting notes and tips

-Bears Running backs coach Tim Spencer is optimistic Matt Forte (ankle) will suit up Monday night against the Cowboys. "Matt looks good,” Spencer said Sunday. “Matt does everything he's supposed to do to try and get ready. He looks good to me. We should know more by Monday afternoon.” Chicago is 3.5-point dog at Dallas tonight.

-Yankees 1B Mark Teixeira (calf) is expected to return to the lineup Monday. He has missed 30 of the last 31 games. New York is -224 favorite over the Red Sox.

-The Blue Jays and Twins are meeting for the second series this season. They split a four-game set in Minnesota in May. Toronto has won the season series six straight years and is -130 favorite tonight.

-The Kansas City Royals have dropped seven of their last eight games and allowed 15 runs to the lowly Cleveland Indians on Sunday. The Royals are +123 dogs when they host Detroit tonight.

-Colorado has dropped nine in a row on the road, including a 7-1 defeat in Los Angeles on Sunday. The Rockies scored a total of one run in the three-game set and had gone 26 consecutive innings without crossing the plate until Andrew Brown led off the fourth on Sunday with his fifth home run. The Rockies are +173 dogs tonight at Arizona.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: