cnotes Posts:24234 Followers:32
On 09/04/2012 04:34 PM in NFL

CNOTES 2012 NFL SEPT. BEST BETS !

NY Giants Host Cowboys To Kick Off NFL Season

The New York Giants start the defense of their Super Bowl title and kick off another exciting NFL football season when they host the Dallas Cowboys on Wednesday.

The Don Best Pro Odds screen has the Giants as 4-point favorites after opening at three. The total is 46 and NBC will have the national broadcast from MetLife Stadium at 8:30 p.m. (ET). The rest of the league will wait to play until Sunday.

Injuries to Dallas are a big part of the spread move. Tight end Jason Witten (spleen) and receiver Miles Austin (hamstring) are both questionable. Austin has said that he will play, while the tea leaves point towards Witten being out.

Nose tackle Jay Ratliff (ankle) and guard Phil Costa (back) are listed as questionable as well. Dallas did get some insurance along the offensive line by acquiring Ryan Cook from Miami. He can provide depth at both guard and center.

Tony Romo may be the most scrutinized quarterback in the league. The Cowboys were seventh in the league in passing last year (263 YPG) and 11th in total yards (375.5 YPG), but just 15th in points (23.1 PPG).

The now 32-year-old Romo needs to make the big play at crucial times, instead of an interception or fumble. There can be no excuses at this point in his career even if his security-blanket Witten is out and replaced by John Phillips.

Romo should get help from running back DeMarco Murray, although the offensive line is pretty shaky overall. The defense (14th last year in total yards) should be better in the second year under coordinator Rob Ryan, with two new cornerbacks in free agent Brandon Carr and rookie Morris Claiborne.

New York is trying to become the first team to repeat as NFL champs since the 2004 New England Patriots. It won’t be easy with the dreaded 'Super Bowl hangover,' but the team does have the pieces in place to at least make a playoff run.

Eli Manning isn’t quite as good in the regular season as he is in the playoffs. His quarterback rating of 92.9 last year ranked seventh. Receiver Mario Manningham and tight end Jake Ballard are missing from his arsenal, but Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz are still a very good duo.

The rushing attack added first-round rookie David Wilson to incumbent Ahmad Bradshaw. The defense gave up a lot of passing yards in the regular season before clamping down when needed in the playoffs. Getting pressure on Romo early and often should be on the agenda with the vaunted pass rush against Dallas’ line.

The Giants have several injuries of their own, but they proved they can find guys to step up in their Super Bowl run last year. Corner Prince Amukamara (ankle) is expected out Wednesday as is linebacker Michael Boley (hamstring) and others. Check the injury report for the latest.

This is always a great matchup and it’s kind of sad there will only be one regular season game between the teams remaining.

The Giants won and covered both meetings last year, including coming back from a 34-22 deficit with two TDs in the final 3:14 in Dallas. They are 5-1 ATS in the last six overall and the ‘over’ is 5-1 in those contests.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24234 Followers:32
09/04/2012 04:38 PM

Head Coaching Debuts

September 2, 2012

With the NFL season starting this week, there are a handful of brand new head coaches making their debut in Week 1. For the exception of Jeff Fisher (Rams), Romeo Crennel (Chiefs), and Mike Mularkey (Jaguars), who have previous head coaching experience in the NFL, we'll take a look at the four new head men and the uphill battle they face in the opener.

Chuck Pagano (Colts), Greg Schiano (Buccaneers), Joe Philbin (Dolphins), and Dennis Allen (Raiders) are all listed as underdogs in Week 1, while Tampa Bay and Oakland take on division foes at home. Pagano and Philbin are also faced with the tall task of starting on the road with rookie quarterbacks, as the likes of Carolina (2011) and Detroit (2009) lost on the highway with a first-year coach and a quarterback making his debut.

Since 2007, there have been 20 coaches making their professional debut, as these men are just 8-12 SU and 8-11-1 ATS. Six coaches were listed as favorites, with Mike Tomlin ('07) and Jim Harbaugh ('11) as the only two to win straight-up and cover the spread. We'll focus more on underdog history, since this is the situation in Week 1.

Look for low-scoring games with coaches making their debut as road underdogs, posting a 7-3-1 mark to the 'under' the last five seasons. Two of the three high-scoring affairs came in 2009, with Jim Schwartz when the Lions fell at New Orleans, 45-27 and Todd Haley's debut with Kansas City at Baltimore, a 38-24 setback. The third 'over' in this 11-game sample occurred last September when the Panthers lost in a shootout at Arizona, but two of these three 'overs' happened with a top pick under center (Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford).

The Bucs and Raiders are short home 'dogs, as teams in this situation since 2007 are just 2-2 SU/ATS. The two victories came in 2008 with clubs that ended up making the postseason as Atlanta and Baltimore both came out with wins, while rookie quarterbacks made the start. Tampa Bay and Oakland aren't in that situation as Josh Freeman and Carson Palmer return as starting quarterbacks, respectively.

The Colts finished 4-1 ATS last season when receiving at least nine points, as Indianapolis heads to Chicago in Week 1. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay was the worst ATS team in the final 10 games of last season, cashing just once, while its last victory came at home against Tampa Bay in October 2011.

Miami begins this campaign with eighth overall pick Ryan Tannehill starting under center, even though Matt Moore won six of the final nine games for the Dolphins last season. The Dolphins have never beaten the Texans in six lifetime meetings, including three losses by three points or less at Reliant Stadium.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24234 Followers:32
09/04/2012 04:39 PM

Cowboys-Giants open 2012 season Wednesday

DALLAS COWBOYS (0-0)

at NEW YORK GIANTS (0-0)


Kickoff: Wednesday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -4, Total: 46

The 2012 NFL season gets underway on Wednesday night in New Jersey when the defending Super Bowl champion Giants host the rival Cowboys.

Although New York has a slight 21-20 edge in the overall series since 1992, the Giants have prevailed in five of the past six meetings. Super Bowl MVP Eli Manning has thrown for 333 passing YPG, 15 TD and 7 INT in this six-game stretch. However, Cowboys QB Tony Romo has also kept these matchups high-scoring, throwing for 234 passing YPG, 11 TD and 4 INT in five games during this string. Despite the tendency for both teams to throw the pigskin, the winner of this matchup could be determined on the ground. Although Dallas has rushed for a mere 75 YPG in its past five meetings in this series, New York was the NFL’s worst rushing offense in both yards (89 YPG) and yards per carry (3.5) last season. Which team will start off its season with victory on Wednesday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Dallas brings in new offensive coordinator Bill Callahan, but he’s isn’t going to drastically alter this offense. Romo is coming off an excellent season, posting a career-best 102.5 QB rating with 4,184 passing yards, 31 TD and 10 INT. He has also thrived playing on the road in this series, completing 90-of-120 passes for 928 yards, 9 TD and 2 INT in his past three games at New York. If Witten and Austin aren’t close to 100 percent, Romo will need Dez Bryant to step up. Bryant had a great sophomore season in the NFL last year, catching 63 passes for 928 yards and 9 TD. But Dallas needs to establish its running game to keep the Giants fearsome front four at bay. DeMarco Murray proved he was worthy of the Cowboys starting RB job last season, rushing for 897 yards on 5.5 YPC, but had just five carries against New York last season, gaining 25 yards in limited duty. OLB DeMarcus Ware led the Dallas defense last year, piling up 19.5 sacks (2nd in NFL), and also helped the run-stop unit place seventh in the league in rushing defense (99 YPG).

Manning had arguably his best season in 2011, finishing with a career-high 4,933 passing yards, while throwing 29 TD and 16 INT. Top WR Hakeem Nicks has been battling through a foot injury in the preseason, but he will play on Wednesday. Nicks had 239 of his 1,192 receiving yards against Dallas last year. Slot man Victor Cruz busted out for 1,536 receiving yards in 2012, capping off his regular season with a 178-yard performance against Dallas. RB Ahmad Bradshaw didn’t have a great 2011 season (3.9 YPC), which is why the team drafted rookie RB David Wilson in the first round to help ease Bradshaw’s workload. Although the Giants offense is intact from a health standpoint, the defense will be missing its top two cornerbacks, Prince Amukamara (ankle), and Terrell Thomas (ACL), who is out for the season. However, the league’s most formidable front four returns, led by Jason Pierre-Paul (16.5 sacks, 4th in NFL) who had 13 tackles and three sacks in the two meetings with Dallas last year.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24234 Followers:32
09/04/2012 04:42 PM

NFL

Week 1

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Tale of the tape: Cowboys at Giants
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Take a quick glance at the tale of the tape for Wednesday night’s NFC East showdown between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants:

Offense

The Cowboys’ offense will be seeking revenge after a disappointing 2011 campaign that saw Dallas drop both games to New York, including a devastating loss in Week 17. Tight end Jason Witten is undergoing a CT scan on his spleen Tuesday to determine his availability for the season opener. The seven-time Pro Bowler has said he’s ready to go and will suit up if he’s cleared by doctors. Quarterback Tony Romo still has two lethal weapons at wide receiver in Dez Bryant and Miles Austin to throw the ball to if Witten remains sidelined.

It’s no secret the Giants’ offense revolves around quarterback Eli Manning. The two-time Super Bowl champion is a year removed from throwing almost 5,000 yards and recording 29 touchdowns passes. The big question on Wednesday will revolve around the health and effectiveness of his favorite target Hakeem Nicks. The wideout underwent surgery to repair a broken toe in May and is still experiencing discomfort during practice.

Edge: Cowboys


Defense

The Cowboys will debut a new, beefed up secondary against the Giants. Dallas signed coveted free-agent cornerback Brandon Carr in the offseason and also selected the top corner in this year’s draft, Morris Claiborne. Mike Jenkins, a 2009 Pro Bowl cornerback, will be a game-time decision as he continues to recover from a shoulder injury that has kept him off the field for the entire preseason.

The Giants are nursing all kinds of injuries on defense. Cornerback Terrell Thomas was placed on season-ending IR and Prince Amukamara is doubtful with an ankle injury. The Cowboys will be looking to exploit the depleted Giants secondary, but Justin Tuck and Jason-Pierre Paul should still be able to shut down the running game and get pressure on Romo.

Edge: Giants


Special teams

Cowboys coach Jason Garrett has said Dez Bryant is still in the mix to return punts in the opener, but the team has yet to finalize its kick and punt returners. Bryant was ineffective last season, averaging 6.7 yards per return.

The Giants don’t have an overly impressive return game, but kicker Lawrence Tynes was perfect in the preseason, nailing all eight of his field goal attempts and punter Steve Weatherford unleashed two hulking 55-plus yard punts last week against New England.

Edge: Giants


Word on the street

“The offensive line we have is fairly experienced. They’ve played a lot of games in this league. We’re going to put a plan together and we’re going to go play football ... So we’re excited to see them play against a really, really formidable defensive line the Giants have. It’ll be a great challenge for us and we’re excited about it.” Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett on the team's five starting linemen that have yet to take a snap in tandem during the preseason because of injuries.

"Michael (Coe) can run, he is very fast. Michael is physical and is not afraid. And Michael has a very strong mentality. If he doesn't have success on a play, we can chew his (rear) out and he'll come back and make a play for you. So I like his mental makeup also." Giants defensive coordinator Perry Fewell on Michael Coe's ability to defend Miles Austin and Dez Bryant. Coe will start at corner in place of the injured Prince Amukamara.

Covers Consensus: 61 percent of contest players like New York -4.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24234 Followers:32
09/04/2012 04:43 PM

NFL

Week 1

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Cowboys at Giants: What bettors need to know
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Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-4, 46)

THE STORY: The New York Giants begin the defense of their Super Bowl championship on Wednesday, when they open the 2012 season against the Dallas Cowboys. New York's 9-7 record was enough to win the mediocre NFC East last season, clinching the title with a 31-14 triumph over Dallas at home in Week 17. The Giants rolled past Atlanta and upset the 15-1 Packers in Green Bay before needing overtime to top San Francisco in the conference championship game.

For the second time in five years, New York defeated New England in the Super Bowl, earning its fourth league championship. That gives Dallas even more incentive to take down its hated division rival in the season opener.

The Cowboys, who were a disappointing 8-8 last year, have not had much success against the Giants of late, losing five of their last six meetings. New York has eclipsed the 30-point mark in each of its last six victories in the all-time series.

Officiating could be a factor as replacement officials will be used to start the season for the second time in 12 years. The league locked out its regular officials in June, and a new agreement with the referees union has yet to be reached.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: Giants -4. O/U: 46. Oddsmakers opened the defending Super Bowl champs as 3-point favorites back in April. The spread has jump a point at most books and the total has also moved from 47 to 46 points.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS: The injury-riddled receiving corps appears to be rounding into shape. Dez Bryant sat out the final two preseason games with right knee tendinitis while Miles Austin didn't play at all after having hamstring problems last season and in training camp. Both are expected to be ready for the Giants. Tight end Jason Witten, who suffered a lacerated spleen in the preseason opener on Aug. 13, practiced in pads Saturday for the first time since the injury and hopes to be medically cleared for Wednesday's contest. As a precaution, Dallas claimed tight end Colin Cochart off waivers from Cincinnati and released third-string quarterback Stephen McGee.

ABOUT THE GIANTS: With a second Super Bowl ring on his hand, Eli Manning enters the year with more confidence than ever before. That also is because of a trio of receivers in Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Domenik Hixon that arguably is the best in the league. Nicks is returning from offseason foot surgery and sat out practice Sunday but insisted he will play. New York also added talented tight end Martellus Bennett, whose growth was stunted in Dallas as he spent four seasons behind Witten. Linebacker Michael Boley, who missed the entire preseason with a strained hamstring, practiced for the first time Saturday and hopes to be on the field against the Cowboys.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Over is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings in New York.
* Cowboys are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight meetings in New York.
* Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Cowboys own the league's best winning percentage in season openers with a .663 mark (34-17-1). The Giants also are among the leaders at .592 (49-33-5).

2. New York is five victories away from becoming the third team in NFL history to reach 650 wins. It will join Chicago (712) and Green Bay (679) in the elite group.

3. Witten, who has missed just one game in his career, owns the second-longest consecutive games streak among active TEs at 139 contests. He sat out a game as a rookie in 2003 due to a broken jaw.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24234 Followers:32
09/04/2012 04:44 PM

Where the action is: NFL Week 1's biggest line moves

Tracking line moves during Week 1 of the NFL season is a different animal than any other week on the schedule.

Most games have had spreads available since the spring and have been influenced by a summer’s worth of stories, injuries and action.

With the 2012 NFL season finally kicking off this week, we dissect the biggest line moves of Week 1 with help of Mike Colbert, race and sportsbook director for Cantor Gaming.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (Open: Arizona -1, Currently: Seattle -3)

Arizona opened as a slight home favorite but its issues nailing down a starting QB during the preseason pushed a lot of money towards Seattle. Football bettors are banking on the Seahawks, even though they're going with rookie QB Russell Wilson under center for Week 1.

“We’ve taken a boatload of money on Seattle. It’s one of our biggest decisions,” Colbert told Covers. “The Seahawks are going with Wilson, which I think is a good decision but it’s also a question mark. We’re not quite at -3 yet. I don’t think we’ll get there but if we do, people will start buying back on Arizona.”

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (Open: New York -6, Currently: New York -3)

A poor performance from New York in the preseason and a growing buzz around Buffalo has sliced this Week 1 spread in half. Cantor’s Las Vegas books opened with the Jets -5.5 and have been bet all the way down to a field goal. And Colbert doesn’t see it stopping there.

“The Bills are one of the sexy teams to start the year,” he says. “They have one of the best defensive lines out there. They’re really good up front. A lot of this depends on (QB Ryan) Fitzpatrick and how he plays. You’re going to see 2.5 on this one. Then you’ll get some buyback on the Jets.”

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans (Open: Houston -7, Currently: Houston -11.5)

According to Colbert, this is the biggest decision in terms of one-sided action the favorite for Cantor in Week 1. They opened Houston at -6.5 back in the spring and didn’t take any serious money until the line moved to -9.5.

“It’s all Texans,” says Colbert, who currently has Houston -11. “A lot of this has to do with the Dolphins' quarterback situation, going with (rookie QB Ryan) Tannehill. Some smart guys think Miami is willing to give away a few wins just to build him up and give him time.”

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (Open: New Orleans -11, Currently: New Orleans -9)

In the wake of "Bounty Gate", football bettors have been slowly fading the Saints for their Week 1 date against the Redskins and rookie sensation Robert Griffin III. Colbert says there are more bets riding on the dog and understands why.

“I’m not really high on the Saints and I think it’ll hurt them not having (suspended head coach Sean) Payton on the sidelines,” he says. “We’ll know right away what kind of team the Saints are going to be this year. I think 9.5 or 10 points is too many.”

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (Open: Denver -3, Currently: Pick)

Cantor’s books have gone up and down with this Week 1 spread. They opened Denver -1 and went to Pittsburgh -1 then to Denver -2.5 before settling at Denver -1 again. Some online books are dealing this Sunday Night Football showdown as a pick’em.

“This is a revenge game for the Steelers but they're without James Harrison and Ryan Clark has the sickle cell issue, Mendenhall is hurt. I kind of like Denver,” says Colbert. “This game has been bet pretty even so far but I could see it moving slightly to Denver -2.5.”

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24234 Followers:32
09/04/2012 04:46 PM

NFL

Week 1

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Trend Report
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Wednesday, September 5

8:30 PM
DALLAS vs. NY GIANTS
Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games
NY Giants are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
NY Giants are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing Dallas


Sunday, September 9

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. NY JETS
Buffalo is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
NY Jets are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Jets last 7 games when playing at home against Buffalo

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. KANSAS CITY
Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing Atlanta

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. HOUSTON
Miami is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games on the road
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Houston is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. CHICAGO
Indianapolis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Indianapolis is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games
Chicago is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Indianapolis
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. MINNESOTA
Jacksonville is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Jacksonville is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games
Minnesota is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Cleveland's last 12 games

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games
Washington is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games on the road
New Orleans is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
New Orleans is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games when playing Washington

1:00 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing Detroit
St. Louis is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Detroit is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games
Detroit is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. TENNESSEE
New England is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
New England is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home
Tennessee is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing New England

4:15 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. GREEN BAY
San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games on the road
Green Bay is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games at home
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco

4:15 PM
CAROLINA vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games on the road
Carolina is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Carolina

4:15 PM
SEATTLE vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Seattle's last 13 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Seattle's last 16 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Arizona's last 17 games at home
Arizona is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle

8:20 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. DENVER
Pittsburgh is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Denver
Pittsburgh is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Denver is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh


Monday, September 10

7:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. BALTIMORE
Cincinnati is 5-16 SU in its last 21 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Baltimore is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

10:15 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. OAKLAND
San Diego is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
San Diego is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Oakland is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against San Diego
Oakland is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against San Diego


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24234 Followers:32
09/04/2012 04:47 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 1

Wednesday
Cowboys @ Giants— Defending Super Bowl champs are 9-1-2 vs spread in their next season’s opener last 12 years (12-0 SU). Giants won last four home openers; since ’90, they’re 10-4 vs spread as favorite in home openers, but just 12-18-1 vs spread in last 31 games as a home favorite. Dallas owner Jones was mouthing off about “kicking the Giants’ ass; his Cowboys are 2-7 in last nine series games, losing 37-34/31-14 in LY’s meetings- they’ve lost three of last four visits here, losing by 21-7-17 points, but are 8-4 vs spread in last dozen games as road underdogs. Dallas is opening on road for fifth year in row. 14-8 vs spread in last 22 road openers, losing last two, by 6-3 points. 12 of their last 15 road openers went over total, as did four of Big Blue’s last five home openers. Average total in last six series games is 61.


Sunday
Colts @ Bears— Indy has new coach, new QB; they’re glorified expansion team, starting fresh, so they’re trends don’t mean as much, but they did cover four of five LY as double digit underdogs. Colts lost 34-24/34-7 in last two road openers, after having won nine of previous ten. Teams with rookie QBs figure to struggle on foreign soil early on. Chicago won 29-13 at Indy in last meeting in ’08, teams’ only meeting since Colts beat Bears in Super Bowl XLI. Since ’96, underdogs are 13-3 vs spread in Chicago’s home openers, with Bears just 2-8 vs spread as favorite; they’ve won six of last seven home openers, allowing 13.3 ppg last three years. Since 2007, Chicago is just 9-15-1 as home favorites, but they did cover last two tries when laying double digits. Five of Indy’s last seven road openers stayed under total.

Eagles @ Browns— Lot of commonality between coaching staffs; been rough summer off field for Coach Reid. Philly is just 4-6 as road favorite last two years, with six of 11 road wins by 7 or less points. Since being reborn in 1999, Browns are 1-12 in home openers, 1-11-1 vs spread; they were favored/even in five of the 12 losses- they’re 0-7 vs spread in last seven home openers, with under 8-4 in their last 12. 12 of those 13 home openers came in Week 1. Cleveland is 3-6 vs spread in last nine games as home underdog; they’re 3-7-2 vs spread v NFC teams last three years. Philly are 3-0 vs new Browns, scoring 35-34-30 points; they’ve won last three road openers, scoring 31+ points in last four. Since ’88, Philly is 14-8 vs spread in road openers; 6-4 as favorite, 8-4 as dog. Over is 3-0-1 in their last four road openers. Teams met in preseason two weeks ago, but Vick didn’t play.

Bills @ Jets— How will Gang Green utilize Tebow? How will Sanchez react if he struggles early and gets pulled? Fickle home folks could turn ugly if Jets stumble early vs Buffalo squad that lost last five games to Jets by average score of 30-14, losing last two visits here, 38-7/28-24. Bills are 7-3 in last ten tries as road dogs in road openers; since 2000, they’re 3-0 as Week 1 road dog. Buffalo is 12-6 as road underdogs in divisional games last six years. Six of their last eight road openers stayed under the total. Over last 20 years, Jets are 2-8 vs spread as favorite in home opener, losing 14 of 20 (2-1 last three years). Three of their last four home openers stayed under total. Jets covered five of last six season openers; since 2007, they’re 2-9-1 vs spread as a home favorite in divisional games. Bills trading for Tarvaris Jackson raised some eyebrows.

Redskins @ Saints— Lot of unusual variables here. How will Saints function without Payton/Vitt on sidelines? Who will make key 4th down calls? Redskins using rookie QB in hostile environment; tough way to start. Washington won its last six visits to New Orleans, with last visit in ’06. Road team won six of last seven series games. New Orleans won four in row and 11 of last 14 home openers, scoring 28.3 ppg in last four; they’re 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine as favorite in home openers, with 11 of last 15 staying under total. New Orleans won last five Sunday openers. Washington lost nine of last 12 road openers, losing last four, scoring 14 ppg. 1-5 vs spread in last six as underdog. Under is 8-3-1 in Washington’s last dozen road openers. Since ’07, Redskins are 18-12-3 as road underdogs. Since ’08, Saints are 19-9-1 as a home favorite.

Patriots @ Titans— Since 1998, Super Bowl losers are 0-13 vs spread (2-11 SU) in their next season’s opener. Teams’ first meeting since Patriots waxed Tennessee 59-0 on snowy October day in Foxboro three years ago, their fourth straight series win. Tennessee covered seven of last ten home openers, four of last five that were in Week 1; they’re 7-0 vs spread last seven times they were underdog in home opener, with last non-cover 34-17 (+5) vs Steelers in ’95. Patriots won last eight season openers (4-3-1 vs spread); they’re 6-6 in last dozen road openers, 1-2 in last three; since ’92, they’re 1-11 in road openers if they score 21 or less points, 7-1 if they score 23+. Four of their last six road openers went over total. Titans’ last three home openers went over total. Pats split two visits here, losing 24-7 in ’02, winning 40-23 in ’06.

Jaguars @ Vikings— New owner/coach/QB for Jaguars, who lost last four road openers (1-3 vs spread) by average score of 25-9, losing 38-13/32-3 in Week 2 road openers last two years. In their history, are solid 7-4 vs spread as underdog in road openers. Six of their last eight road openers stayed under total. First time in five years Vikings are opening season at home; Minnesota lost three of last four home openers, with all four decided by four or less points; since ’99, they’re 3-8 vs spread as favorite in home openers. You're reading ***************.com. Vikings won three of four series games, with none of four decided by less than 11 points. Only Jaguar win was 33-3 here in ’01. Since ’88, under is 16-7-1 in Metrodome home openers.

Dolphins @ Texans— High expectations in Houston after their first playoff appearance LY; they’re 6-0 vs Dolphins, with all three wins here by 3 or less points- only one of the six wins is by more than 7 points. Rookie QB gets the nod for Miami, which lost seven of last eight road openers (1-5-1 vs spread in last seven), with only win at Buffalo in ’10. Once-proud Fish are 0-4-1 vs spread in last five games as underdog in road opener. Texans won 34-24/34-7 in last two home openers, after losing six of first eight in franchise history; they’re 2-2 as Week 1 home favorite. Five of their last seven home openers stayed under total. Houston allowed 24+ points in seven of last nine home openers. Under is 13-5 in Miami’s last 18 road openers.

Rams @ Lions— Third offense in three years for young QB Bradford; main question is can rebuilt OL keep him on his feet? Rams are 15-65 last five years, worst 5-year stretch in NFL history; they hired former Titan HC Fisher to right ship. His DC in Tennessee was current Lion HC Schwartz, so team will play similar defenses. St Louis lost last ten road openers (1-9 vs spread) by average score of 26-12, with five of last six staying under total. Last time Rams won season opener was 18-10 home win (+3.5) over Denver in 2006. Detroit is 14-6-1 vs spread in last 21 home openers, but lost three of last four (32-35/48-3 L2 years). First time in six years they’re opening season at home. Three of last four home openers went over. Rams are 3-2 in last five series games; ’09 Rams’ only win came here, 17-10. ’10 Rams lost 44-10 here.

Falcons @ Chiefs— Home side won five of last six series games, all decided by 11+ points; Falcons have never won here, losing 38-10/14-3/56-10 (’04). Atlanta whupped KC 38-14 at home in last meeting (’08). Chiefs started 0-1 five of last six years. Chiefs are 4-8 in last dozen home openers, scoring 13 or less points in five of last six. KC is 2-6-1 vs spread last nine games where they were favored in a home opener. Atlanta lost last five road openers, scoring average of 8.6 ppg; they even lost at Pittsburgh one year when Big Ben was suspended. Since ’88, they’re 0-4 as favorite in road openers. You're reading ***************.com. Seven of last eight road openers stayed under total; under is 16-2-1 in Chiefs’ last 19 home openers.

49ers @ Packers—Green Bay won five in row, 13 of last 14 games vs 49ers, with only loss in ’98 playoff game; SF lost last eight visits here, with five of eight by 10+ points. Pack won/covered last five home openers, by average score of 27-18. This will be 13th time in 16 years they’re at home in Week 1.. Niners *** four of last five road openers, covered six of last eight; they’re 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine tries as road dog in road opener. Since ’94, they’re 2-6 vs spread in Week 1 road games. Four of Pack’s last six home openers stayed under; under is 3-1-1 in 49ers’ last five road openers. Niners were +28 in turnovers in magical ’11 run; they made lot of own breaks, but you’re not +28 without few bounces going your way—will that continue?

Panthers @ Buccaneers— Curious to see how Newton does with full off-season program under his belt; teams didn’t have that last season, but he was still terrific as rookie, beating Bucs 38-19/48-16 in two meetings. Carolina lost last three road openers, allowing 28-31-28 points; they failed to cover last three as dog in road openers, after covering nine of first 10 (9-4 as dog overall in road openers). Tampa Bay lost five of last six season openers; since ’88, they’re 4-6 vs spread as dogs in home openers, 7-6-1 as favorite. Bucs are 4-6 in last ten home openers; over is 3-1-1 in last five, after 12 of previous 15 stayed under. Carolina’s last four road openers went over the total. Oddly, Carolina won seven of last nine visits here.

Seahawks @ Cardinals— Home side won four of last five series games; Seattle lost five of last six visits here, with losses by 6-3-13-11-3 points. Since ’00, Hawks are 4-8 in road openers, allowing 6-0-7-6 points in wins; they lost last five road openers (0-6 vs spread in last six) by average score of 29-14. Home team won their last five season openers. You're reading ***************.com, America's favorite website. Arizona has been better in home openers since they got the dome; winning five of last six home openers, but since ’88, are still just 3-10 vs spread as favorite in home openers, with five of last six going over total. Under is 19-5 in Arizona’s last 24 home openers, but 2-3 in last five.

Steelers @ Broncos— Denver KO’d Steelers from playoffs 29-23 with OT TD last January; now they’ve upgraded from Tebow to Manning at QB. Fox lost eight of his last nine home openers; before he got to Denver, Broncos had won 11 straight Mile High openers (8-3 vs spread). Manning won seven of last eight home openers, covering six of last 10 as favorite. Over is 3-1-1 in Denver’s last five home openers. Pittsburgh is just 4-8 in last 12 road openers, 4-3 in last seven, scoring average of just 10 ppg in last five, with four of those five staying under total- they scored 14 or less points in four of those five games. New OC Haley said to have installed more run-happy offense, which may explain why Big Ben didn’t get his shoulder fixed. Since ’88, they’re 4-5 in Week 1 openers on road. Steelers are 5-10-1 all-time in Denver, 3-4 vs Broncos in playoffs.


Monday
Bengals @ Ravens— Baltimore won last seven home openers (5-2 vs spread), with none of wins by less than seven points; since 1988, they’re 8-3 vs spread in Week 1 home games. Ravens covered four of last five home openers vs divisional opponent. Cincinnati is 4-3 in last seven road openers; they were dog in three of four wins, favored in two of three losses (underdogs covered five of their last six road openers). Since ’88, are 6-5 vs spread as Week 1 underdog. Four of Bengals’ last five road openers went over total; over is 5-1-1 in Ravens’ last seven home openers, but seven of last nine series games had totals of 37 or less. Ravens won both meetings LY, 31-24/24-16, but are still just 6-9 in last 15 series games, albeit 3-1 in last four played here.

Chargers @ Raiders—Allen is fourth head coach in five years for Oakland, but Palmer had full camp and should be better this year under center. Raiders won three of last four series games after losing 13 in row to Bolts before that. San Diego won seven of last eight visits here, with only loss 35-27 in ’10. Chargers lost four of last five road openers, allowing average of 30.6 ppg, giving up 35+ points in three of the four losses; they’re 4-9 vs spread last 13 times road opener was in Week 1. Over is 13-7-1 in San Diego’s last 21 road openers. Raiders lost last four times they opened season at home, with three losses by 15+ points- they’re 9-5 in last 14 home openers, winning last two after losing previous seven. Four of their last five home openers went over the total. Average total in last four series games is 52.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24234 Followers:32
09/04/2012 04:48 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 1

Dallas at NY Giants
The Cowboys look to build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 games in Week 1. Dallas is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by only 2. Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+4). Here are all of this week's picks.

WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 5

Game 451-452: Dallas at NY Giants (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 132.092; NY Giants 134.165
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 2; 49
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 4; 45
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+4); Under


SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 9

Game 453-454: Indianapolis at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 125.338; Chicago 136.387
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 11; 46
Vegas Line: Chicago by 9; 42
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-9); Over

Game 455-456: Philadelphia at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 135.307; Cleveland 129.423
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 6; 45
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 9; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+9); Over

Game 457-458: Buffalo at NY Jets (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 127.000; NY Jets 128.394
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 1 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 3; 42
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+3); Under

Game 459-460: Washington at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 129.226; New Orleans 136.744
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 7 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 9 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+9 1/2); Under

Game 461-462: New England at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 138.120; Tennessee 134.776
Dunkel Line: New England by 4 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: New England by 6 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+6 1/2); Over

Game 463-464: Jacksonville at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 125.523; Minnesota 128.384
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 3; 35
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 4 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+4 1/2); Under

Game 465-466: Miami at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 129.483; Houston 143.005
Dunkel Line: Houston by 13 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Houston by 10 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-10 1/2); Over

Game 467-468: St. Louis at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 120.837; Detroit 134.336
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 13 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Detroit by 8; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-8); Under

Game 469-470: Atlanta at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 135.107; Kansas City 130.099
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 5; 46
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-2 1/2); Over

Game 471-472: San Francisco at Green Bay (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 138.100; Green Bay 138.121
Dunkel Line: Even; 48
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 5 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+5 1/2); Over

Game 473-474: Carolina at Tampa Bay (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 125.515; Tampa Bay 126.430
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 37
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 40
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+3); Under

Game 475-476: Seattle at Arizona (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 133.680; Arizona 128.587
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 5; 36
Vegas Line: Seattle by 2 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-2 1/2); Under

Game 477-478: Pittsburgh at Denver (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 131.635; Denver 134.522
Dunkel Line: Denver by 3; 47
Vegas Line: Denver (-1); 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-1); Over


MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 10

Game 479-480: Cincinnati at Baltimore (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 130.845; Baltimore 134.774
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 4; 43
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 6; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+6); Over

Game 481-482: San Diego at Oakland (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 131.176; Oakland 132.310
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 46
Vegas Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+1); Under

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24234 Followers:32
09/04/2012 04:49 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 1

Wednesday, September 5, 2012

Dallas at NY Giants, 8:30 ET NBC
Dallas: 0-6 ATS vs. division opponents
NY Giants: 26-12 Over in the first two weeks of the season


Sunday, September 9, 2012

Indianapolis at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Indianapolis: 13-4 Over as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points
Chicago: 5-11 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points

Philadelphia at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Philadelphia: 7-13 ATS vs. AFC North opponents
Cleveland: 11-2 Under playing on grass fields

Buffalo at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 9-2 Over as an underdog
NY Jets: 5-15 ATS at home in the first two weeks of the season

Washington at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
Washington: 11-3 Under as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points
New Orleans: 9-0 ATS as a home favorite

New England at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
New England: 20-7 Over vs. conference opponents
Tennessee: 8-3 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points

Jacksonville at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 5-1 Under in September
Minnesota: 0-8 ATS with a total of 35.5 to 42 points

Miami at Houston, 1:00 ET
Miami: 12-4 Under last season
Houston: 11-3 ATS playing on grass fields

St. Louis at Detroit, 1:00 ET
St. Louis: 0-6 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points
Detroit: 11-3 ATS in the first half of the season

Atlanta at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 18-9 Under as a road favorite of 3 points or less
Kansas City: 27-12 ATS at home vs. non-conference opponents

(TC) San Francisco at Green Bay, 4:25 ET
San Francisco: 6-0 ATS in the first half of the season
Green Bay: 8-1 Over in home games

(TC) Carolina at Tampa Bay, 4:25 ET
Carolina: 10-2 Over vs. conference opponents
Tampa Bay: 4-12 ATS last season

(TC) Seattle at Arizona, 4:25 ET
Seattle: 2-7 ATS away with a total of 38.5 to 42 points
Arizona: 6-0 Over at home in the first half of the season

Pittsburgh at Denver, 8:25 ET NBC
Pittsburgh: 5-1 Under as a road underdog
Denver: 1-5 ATS as a home favorite


Monday, September 10, 2012

Cincinnati at Baltimore, 7:00 ET ESPN
Cincinnati: 11-1 Over vs. conference opponents
Baltimore: 6-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less

San Diego at Oakland, 10:15 ET ESPN
San Diego: 23-10 ATS away with a total of 45.5+ points
Oakland: 13-28 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: