08/30/2012 05:04 PM
Friday, Aug. 31
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
TENNESSEE vs. NC STATE...(at Atlanta, Georgia)Tom O'Brien teams usually wait to rally down the stretch, as his NCS teams are 1-4 vs. line in their openers. But Wolfpack is 9-3-1 as dog the past two seasons and 26-13-1 as the short since O'Brien took over in 2007. Derek Dooley is 8-3 as chalk the past two years but but Vols have failed to cover their last five games away from Knoxville (0-4 LY).
NC State, based on team trends.
BOISE STATE at MICHIGAN STATE...Boise in rebuild mode but has been a great road team in recent years, 11-3 vs. line away since 2010 and 24-10 since 2007. Chris Petersen also has covered last ten vs. non-conference foes. Broncos haven't been a dog since Jan. 2010 Fiesta Bowl vs. TCU. Dantonio 9-5 vs. line at home since 2010.
Boise, based on extended road and non-conference mark.
SAN JOSE STATE at STANFORD...David Shaw 11-2 vs. line in Stanford debut last season with Andrew Luck. Tree also 18-6 as chalk since 2010 and 8-3 laying DD at home since 2007. Tree has also covered last four meetings in this neighborhood rivalry. SJSU did cover 5 of last 6 away LY and is 10-4 vs. line last 14 on board since late 2010.
Stanford, based on recent trends.
Saturday, Sept. 1
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
NOTRE DAME vs. NAVY (at Dublin, Ireland!)...Never mind the Fighting Irish in Ireland, it is a bigger deal in Dublin to have the U.S. Naval Academy in town! Navy had covered seven of ten vs. ND and beaten Irish 3 of 4 SU prior to LY's 56-14 loss at South Bend. Mids 6-2 as dog since 2010 and 15-8 as dog away from Annapolis since 2007. Irish 2-5 vs. line away LY, and Brian Kelly has covered only 7 of 19 as chalk since arriving in 2010.
Navy, based on team and extended series trends.
MARSHALL at WEST VIRGINIA...This was one of the suspended games with no spread result last season. Herd had covered previous two meetings in 2009-10 but Mounties had covered previous three. But Herd only 4-8 as road dog the past two seasons. Holgorsen only 2-3 as Morgantown chalk LY.
Slight to WVU, based on subpar Herd road mark.
OHIO at PENN STATE... Frank Solich 18-9 as dog since 2007, also 10-2 as road dog getting 3 ½ -points or more that span. Solich 3-1 vs. line last four against Big Ten. Penn State 3-9-1 vs. points in 2011, 8-17-1 since 2010, and 4-9-1 at Happy Valley vs. spread past two years. O'Brien debut at Beaver Stadium.
Solich, based on team trends.
NORTHWESTERN at SYRACUSE...NU a bit overvalued the past few years and only 9-17 vs. line since 2010, although Cats have covered five of last eight away from Evanston. Cuse, however, just 3-9 vs. spread LY and 12-20 vs. spread at Carrier Dome since 2007.
Northwestern, based on Cuse negatives.
MIAMI-OHIO at OHIO STATE...Urban Meyer OSU debut! Urban covered four of last five first games on line while at Florida. Bucks were a great spread team at Big Horseshoe for Tressel (17-9 from 2007-10) but slumped last year under Luke Fickell to just 2-4 spread mark at home. Paul Ryan's alma mater Miami is 10-5 vs. line away past two seasons (5-3 as DD road dog) and RedHawks 4-1 vs. spread last five vs. Big Ten foes.
Slight to Miami-Ohio, based on road mark.
WESTERN MICHIGAN at ILLINOIS...Beckman Illini debut! Beckman involved in some wild games vs. WMU the past few years while at Toledo (Rockets won 66-63 LY but couldn't cover!). Illini were erratic spread performers in the Zook years reflected in subpar 15-22 spread mark at home from 2007-11. Cubit was 4-1 as dog LY and covered in close loss at Champaign-Urbana.
WMU, based on team trends.
TULSA at IOWA STATE...Game is near pick'em so be careful applying past Paul Rhodes ISU trends which have been generally better as dog (7-4 LY) than as chalk (2-4 since 2010). Tulsa just 4-7 vs. line last 11 vs. non-CUSA foes.
Slight ti ISU, based on team trends.
NEVADA at CALIFORNIA...Memorial Stadium reopens in Berkeley! Revenge for Bears after losing 52-31 in Reno two years ago. Cal enjoyed playing across the SF Bay last season with 5-0 home chalk mark at Candlestick and AT&T Parks, and Bears now 9-1 as home favorite since 2010 and 20-6 in role since 2007. Cal 3-0 as DD home chalk since 2010, too. Wolf Pack, however, 5-2 as dog since 2010.
Slight to Cal, based on recent home chalk trend.
SOUTHERN MISS at NEBRASKA...Ellis Johnson era begins at Southern Miss, let's see if it is better than his last couple of head coaching jobs (including long ago in the early '80s at Gardner-Webb). The Fedora USM edition was 3-0 as a dog LY and is 7-2 getting 7 1/2-points or more on road since 2007. Bo Pelini just 4-8-1 vs. line LY and 5-9 vs. spread at Lincoln since 2010, also only 2-8 vs. line as DD home chalk past two years.
Slight to USM, based on team trends.
MIAMI-FLORIDA at BOSTON COLLEGE...Spaziani in more trouble with BC AD Gene DeFilippo announcing pending retirement. Spaziani closed with a rush vs. spread LY but is just 3-10 vs. spread at home since 2010 and if chalk note 1-7 spread mark in role at Chestnut Hill that span. If Al Golden is a dog note his 3-1 mark in role (all on road) last season and 18-9 dog mark since 2007.
Miami, especially if dog, based on team trends.
IOWA vs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS (at Soldier Field, Chicago)...Trek to Chi-town didn't work so well for NIU LY but that was against Wisconsin. Iowa seems a lesser foe. Hawkeyes only 5-8 vs. line LY and are 3-9 vs. spread away from home the past two seasons (0-3 laying 7 ½ or more away). Huskies are 9-2 vs. spread as road dog since 2010!
NIU, based on team trends.
COLORADO vs. COLORADO STATE (at Denver)...McElwain CSU debut! Buffs have won and covered last two and four of last five vs. Rams. Which was odd for CU because it hasn't been able to cover too often vs. others the past couple of years (just 9-16 overall vs. number since 2010). CSU, however, only 4-9 vs. line away from Fort Collins the past two seasons and mere 10-16 as dog away from home since 2007.
CU, based on series trends.
BUFFALO at GEORGIA... Mark Richt has run up scores pretty well the past two seasons, 8-3 as home chalk and 7-2 laying DD between the hedges that span. Buffalo 3-9 vs. line away (all as dog) since 2010 and 1-6 as DD road dog that span.
Georgia, based on team trends and recent Richt bully tendencies.
BOWLING GREEN at FLORIDA...BGSU's extended road dog mark dating back to the Gregg Brandon years is pretty good (16-7 since 2007, including 9-5 getting DD away). Muschamp only 5-8 vs. line in Gator debut LY but was better as chalk (5-3 vs. points) than as dog (0-5 against number).
Bowling Green, based on extended trends.
WYOMING at TEXAS...The Fred Akers game! Note how Wyo was smashed in its losses last season, but Cowboys did cover 4 of 6 as a dog away from Laramie, and Christensen 10-4 as road dog since taking Wyo job in 2009. Mack recovered a bit at Austin last season, covering all three laying DD at home, after disastrous 2010 (when 1-6 vs. line at home) but still only 4-9 against spread as host since 2010.
Slight to Wyo, based on team trends.
TEXAS STATE at HOUSTON...Franchione returns to the big board with the Bobcats! Tony Levine 1-0 SU and vs. spread with UH after bowl win over Penn State and note Sumlin was 13-7-1 as chalk with Cougs the last two years (6-2-1 laying DD at home).
Houston, based on team trends.
CLEMSON vs. AUBURN (at Atlanta, GA)...All-Tiger battle! Revenge for Chizik after losing LY at Death Valley, and Dabo has covered last two years in this series. Chizik won in this building last December in Chick fil-A but only covered one of five away from Jordan-Hare in regular season a year ago. Chizik also 1-4 as dog away from home last year. Dabo has covered opener the alst three years.
Dabo, based on team and series trends.
HAWAII at SOUTHERN CAL... Norm Chow debut for UH and no love lost between him and Lane Kiffin. McMackin's last Warrior team was 4-9 vs. line and 2-5 vs. spread on road, although UH has mostly held its own as DD road dog in recent times (5-4 in role since 2007). Kiffin is only 5-8 vs. line as host the past two years but please note Trojans won and covered last four and six of last seven down stretch a year ago.
Slight to SC, based on team trends.
MICHIGAN vs. ALABAMA (at Jerry Jones Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, TX)...Nick Saban is 17-9 vs. line last two seasons and 12-4 laying DD that span, Bama also 26-13 against spread since 2009. Brady Hoke, however, 8-4 vs. line LY, 16-8 last two years (SDSU and Michigan).
Slight to Michigan, based on Hoke marks.
RUTGERS at TULANE...Curtis Johnson Tulane debut, Kyle Flood Rutgers debut! Wave looking to get physical, but only 3-10 vs. line at home since 2010 (2-5 as home dog) and 8-22 against points at Superdome since 2007. Rutgers 4-1 as DD road chalk for Schiano in 2007-11 but only 5-6-1 vs. spread away 2011-11.
Slight to Rutgers, based on Tulane negatives.
OKLAHOMA at UTEP...Mike Price on hot seat. Stoops has actually not been so great as road chalk lately (7-6 since 2010) and was just 6-5 laying DD LY. Miners' recent marks very so-so as well and Price only 1-6 vs. line last seven hosting non-CUSA foes at Sun Bowl.
Slight to OU, based on team trends.
TOLEDO at ARIZONA...Rich-Rod UA debut! Matt Campbell technically debuted for Rockets in bowl win vs. Air Force last December. Toledo nothing special as dog (5-5) past two seasons, and 2-2 as DD road dog since 2010. The Cats were underachievers the past two years (9-16 vs. line and 6-10 as chalk), and note Rodriguez' 5-15 chalk mark in his Michigan stint between 2008-10.
Slight to Toledo, based on team trends.
SAN DIEGO STATE at WASHINGTON...Rocky Long 2-4 vs. line away LY, while Sarkisian 5-2 vs. spread as host.
Slight to U-Dub, based on team trends.
Saturday, Sept. 1 - Added Games
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
TROY at UAB...Tough 2011 for Blakeney as Troy slipped to 3-9 vs. line and now Trojans are 8-17 vs. spread the past two seasons (4-12 as chalk). McGee UAB debut, note Blazers 6-3 as dog LY and 10-5 in role since 2010 (4-1 as road dog that span). UAB has covered last two years in series in a pair of 1-point games.
Slight to UAB, based on recent trends.
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL at DUKE...Mario Cristobal 3-1 as dog LY and 7-3 as dog since 2010. Revenge for Golden Panthers after bitter 31-27 home loss LY. Cutcliffe above-average 13-9-2 vs. spread since 2010 and 2-2 as home chalk that span.
FIU, based on Cristobal dog marks.
NORTH TEXAS at LSU...Dan McCarney covered 7 of last 10 a year ago for UNT. Les Miles has been a bit overvalued at home lately, only 6-7 vs. spread at home since 2010 (4-6 laying DD at Baton Rouge) and 12-21 against line as host since 2007.
Slight to UNT, based on team trends.
ARKANSAS STATE at OREGON...Gus Malzahn Ark State debut! Red Wolves were outstanding 10-2 vs. line in regular-season a year ago with Hugh Freeze as the coach and they are 4-1 as DD road dog since 2010. Webfoots had some problems laying the big points at home last season (2-5-1 as DD Autzen chalk).
Slight to Ark State, based on team trends.
Sunday, Sept. 2
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
KENTUCKY at LOUISVILLE...Note that road team has covered the last four in this series. Charlie Strong has fared better vs. line on road than at Papa John's, where he was 2-4 vs. spread LY and is only 4-9 since 2010.
Kentucky, based on series road and team trends.
SMU at BAYLOR...Old SWC rivals. Was it Griffin or the Art Briles offense making Baylor so good the past few years? Some of each but Bears did slip when RG III went down in 2009. Briles was 6-0 vs. line at home LY, June Jones just 3-6 as road dog past two seasons.
Baylor, based on team trends.
Monday, Sept. 3
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
GEORGIA TECH at VIRGINIA TECH...Winner of this game has won ACC Coastal the past seven years. Paul Johnson has covered 3 of last 4 vs. Beamer but the VT cover came a year ago. But Johnson spread marks have been less than so-so the past couple of years (10-15-1 since 2010) and only 4-6 as road dog that span. Beamer tailed off in uncharacteristically bad spread effort LY (4-10) and is just 12-17 vs. spread at Blacksburg since 2007.
Slight to GT, based on extended VPI home negatives.
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: