cnotes Posts:31402 Followers:37
09/25/2012 09:38 PM

Games to Watch - Week 5

September 23, 2012

Thursday - Stanford at Washington (ESPN, 9:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny

Stanford has won six of its last seven meetings against Washington including a 65-21 beat down last year. Yet after losing Andrew Luck to the NFL most people thought the Cardinal would take a significant hit this year. However that has not been the case so far as the Cardinal comes in ranked 8th and sitting at 3-0 after taking down PAC-12 favorite USC two weeks ago. Washington meanwhile has beat two lesser opponents but got demolished in Baton Rouge by a much faster and more talented LSU squad. The Stanford defense can't quite match the defensive intensity of LSU but if the Cardinal defense can provoke Husky QB Keith Price into the same mistakes they did against Matt Barley and USC then they should easily move to 4-0. However they are back at home in CenturyLink Field and the ESPN Thursday night games have occasionally proven to be costly to higher ranked teams in the past playing on the road, especially in the PAC-12, so the Cardinal will need to be on upset alert as a touchdown road favorite.

Saturday - Baylor at West Virginia (FX, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny

After watching a phenomenal slate of games in Week 4 the scheduling gods took a break this week. If you have been putting off a weekend project, this might be the weekend to go ahead and knock it out. This is the only game of the week with both teams ranked in both polls. However, if you like offense, you will love this game. Both teams come in 3-0 having beaten less than stellar competition to date and it appears that Baylor senior QB Nick Florence has picked up where RGIII left off, as Baylor currently sits 5th in passing yards in the NCAA at 362 yards per game. Meanwhile WVU senior QB and Heisman hopeful Geno Smith is even better at 370 yards passing per game and 3rd in the NCAA. Both teams also currently rank in the Top 10 in points scored, but again the most impressive win either team has to date is Baylor beating ULM last Friday night. The biggest question in this game might be whether WVU will be looking ahead to their matchup next week in Austin against the Longhorns? If they do, the post RGIII Bears' could easily stroll into Morgantown and spoil the Big 12 debut of West Virginia. Unlike the Oregon/Arizona game last Saturday I don't see either of these teams getting shut down offensively due to suspect defenses on both sides. Points will not be a problem; in fact this game simply might come down to whoever has the ball last wins.

Saturday - Tennessee at Georgia (CBS, 3:30 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny

Two weeks ago this game looked like it could be a huge swing game in the battle for the SEC East…and then Tennessee reminded us that it's not the 90's anymore and proceeded to get blown out at home by Florida. Now the Vols look to play the role of spoiler in-between the hedges in Athens. The Dawgs come in as a two-touchdown favorite and playing extremely well the last few weeks, however they have a huge road test next week against South Carolina and The Ole' Ball Coach…probably the most hated man in the state of Georgia from his days at Florida. If Georgia is already looking ahead and isn't focused on Tyler Bray and the Tennessee passing attack ranked 8th in the country, then that game next week against the Gamecocks might not mean near as much to the Dawgs. The key to this game will be the Georgia defensive line and if they can get pressure on Bray, if they can, look for Georgia to shut down the Tennessee passing attack; but if Bray has time to sit in the pocket this game might be a little closer than the Georgia faithful want.

Saturday - Ohio State at Michigan State (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny

Technically this game also has two ranked teams playing each other according to the AP Poll; however Ohio State has a one-year postseason ban that prevents them from playing in a bowl game, the Big Ten championship or consideration by the USA Today Coaches Poll. And more importantly the fact that Michigan State is ranked in any poll on the planet is almost as comical as the Big 10 as a whole. They trailed Eastern Michigan at halftime last week, barely pulled out a win over a clearly depleted Boise State team at home in Week 1 and got rolled by Notre Dame two weeks later; but hey, they did beat Central Michigan pretty impressively. However that is a big win in the Big 10 these days…just ask Iowa. Ohio State is probably the "best team" in the Big 10; however that's like being the skinniest person on The Biggest Loser. The Buckeyes are 4-0 so far but they also haven't left Columbus to play a football game and have been less than impressive in most of those. This week will be Urban Meyer's Big Ten debut and the first real "test" of the season for the Buckeyes. Can the Buckeyes contain Sparty RB Le'Veon Bell? If not it might be a long afternoon in East Lansing for Meyer, if so MSU might get shutout of the end zone like they did against the Irish. In either case the good news for the Big 10 is that at least one of them has to win.

Other Games to Watch
Matchup Skinny

FSU doesn't play a ranked team again this year until the last weekend of the season when they host their intrastate rivals, The Florida Gators. However this weekend they are on the road against South Florida and need to avoid a letdown after their big win over Clemson in what should otherwise be an easy win as a two touchdown favorite for the Seminoles.

Texas is 22-4 all-time against Oklahoma State, however as mentioned earlier Texas has a big game at home next week against WVU so they will need to avoid looking ahead as a slight road favorite against a team that has beaten them the past two years.

If you don't live in Nebraska or Wisconsin you can stop reading now. Nebraska got embarrassed last year at Madison in their first-ever Big Ten game losing 48-17. They will look for revenge this year in front of their ongoing NCAA record 322nd consecutive sellout home crowd. But again, at least another Big 10 team is guaranteed a victory.

How good is Arizona? We may never know. They put up 59 points on Oklahoma State and then get shut out by Oregon. Meanwhile Oregon State may be much better than anyone thought beating two top 20 teams to start the season after coming in off a 3-9 2011 season. While neither team will likely challenge for the PAC-12 title, this game should answer quite a few questions for both teams and their fans.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:31402 Followers:37
09/27/2012 12:16 AM

No. 8 Stanford visits Washington on Thursday night


Kickoff: Thursday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Stanford -7, Total: 49

Two well-rested Pac-12 teams coming off a bye week clash on Thursday night when No. 8 Stanford visits Washington.

The Cardinal have dominated this series, winning six of the past seven meetings (5-1-1 ATS), including four straight by an average score of 44-16. Stanford beat the Huskies 65-21 last year behind a school-record 446 rushing yards. This is the road opener for the Cardinal, who are 7-0-1 ATS in their past eight non-home games. Washington is 7-1 SU (6-2 ATS) at home since losing 41-0 to Stanford in 2010. Washington’s Keith Price threw 3 TD in his last game on Sept. 15, a 52-13 thumping of Portland State. Stanford has won the past four meetings by an average score of 44 to 16, including a 65-21 annihilation last year when the Cardinal rushed for a school-record 446 yards.

Will Stanford extend its series win streak against Washington? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

Josh Nunes has done an admirable job in the unenviable task of trying to replace Andrew Luck. Nunes has completed just 47-of-88 passes (53%), but has 615 passing yards, 6 TD and 3 INT. Those are pretty good numbers considering his team’s proficiency in rushing the football with 150 rushing YPG. Senior RB Taylor has 113 of those rushing YPG, but he also added five catches as part of 213 total yards against USC in his last game. In three meetings with Washington, Taylor has rushed for 264 yards on 36 carries (7.3 YPC) with four touchdowns. The Cardinal defense is sometimes overlooked, but it’s hard to get past the fact that they lead the nation in rushing defense (41 YPG) despite playing all FBS opponents so far, and not padding their stats with FCS opponents. They’ve held their past two opponents, Duke and USC, to 53 yards on 51 carries. Stanford has also done a great job in being opportunistic, forcing nine turnovers, and getting into the opponent’s backfield with 9.7 Tackles For Loss per game (3rd in FBS). Special teams have also been strong, especially Drew Terrell whose 22.3 yards per punt return ranks fourth in the nation.

Price has had a down year so far, with just one touchdown over two games versus FBS opponents (San Diego State and LSU), and ranking 11th in the Pac-12 in passing efficiency (126.93). Price was decent in last year’s blowout loss to Stanford though, completing 23-of-36 passes for 247 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. But even more disappointing than the 94th-ranked passing game (200 YPG), has been the Huskies rushing attack that has just 114 rushing YPG (104th in FBS). They don’t figure to improve on that number against Stanford’s top-ranked rushing defense. Defensively, Washington has been excellent in defending the pass (167 YPG, 14th in nation), but has given up 175 rushing YPG (11th in Pac-12).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:31402 Followers:37
09/27/2012 12:18 AM

Stanford at Washington

September 26, 2012

The conference season is here and Thursday night football kicks off with a great matchup in the Pac-12. The series between Washington and Stanford has not been competitive in the last three seasons but this will be the lowest line in the series since 2008. Stanford enters this game coming off a huge win over USC but this will be the first road game of the season and upset-minded Washington will look for a better performance in the spotlight after failing at LSU earlier in the season. Here is a look at the two teams involved and what to expect Thursday night.

Matchup: Stanford Cardinal at Washington Huskies
Venue: CenturyLink Field, Seattle, Washington
Date: Thursday, September 27, 2012
Time/TV: 9:00 PM ET – ESPN
Line: Stanford -6½, Over/Under 48
Last Meeting: 2011, Stanford (-18) 65-21 at Stanford

After losing the No. 1 overall pick in last year’s NFL Draft in former Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck as well as facing the second year after the departure of very successful head coach Jim Harbaugh, expectations became quite grounded for the Cardinal this season. Head coach David Shaw led Stanford to an 11-2 season last year, losing narrowly in the Fiesta Bowl but that was a veteran team that had a lot in place and the schedule featured many of the biggest games at home. So far 2012 Stanford has started 3-0, scoring one of the most prominent upsets so far this season in beating USC 21-14 two weeks ago. Expectations are now elevated for the Cardinal but it will still be very difficult to match the success of the past two seasons.

This is the fourth season at Washington for former USC assistant Steve Sarkisian. A former national powerhouse, the Huskies had fallen on very tough times following the departure of Rich Neuheisel after the 2002 season. Keith Gilbertson and Tyrone Willingham combined to go 18-53 in six seasons including a 1-11 2004 season and the ugly 0-12 2008 season. Going 5-7 in his first season on campus after that winless year was a big step forward for Washington and the past two years this team has made it to bowl games with matching 7-6 campaigns. While taking a struggling program to being a perennial bowl team is positive progress, the expectation of a breakthrough season and competing for the Pac-12 title now weighs heavily. Washington is 2-1 on the season but in the lopsided loss to LSU (3-41) it was quite obvious this program still has a long ways to go before emerging as a national power again.

This year’s game takes place at CenturyLink Field, home of the Seahawks. Just a few days ago this was the site of one of the most controversial football games in recent memory. Husky Stadium is undergoing renovation this season so this will be the de facto home stadium for Washington all season, negating a true home field advantage and atmosphere. Washington has won both of its games at home this season and this will be the first road game for Stanford this season.

Replacing Luck certainly is a great challenge for Stanford and most expected that sophomore Brett Nottingham would be the player to fill that role after appearing in six games last season and being a highly regarded recruit. In camp junior Josh Nunes won the job after not playing last season. Nunes has delivered a 3-0 record for his team but the numbers are poor, with just over 53 percent completions and three interceptions in three games. Stanford still has Stepfan Taylor however; the senior running back that posted over 1,300 yards last season and in three games he already had over 300 yards and three touchdowns while averaging five yards per carry. The top three receivers for Stanford from the 2011 season are gone from last year’s team and as expected the numbers in the passing game have been way down this season. The two tight ends are the top two receivers on the team so far this season.

Washington’s offense is led by junior quarterback Keith Price coming off a season in which he threw for over 3,000 yards with 33 touchdown passes, just four fewer than Luck had last season. Price completed nearly 67 percent of his passes last season but his numbers are down from that mark this season. Having to face LSU can take a toll, as he was just 17 of 36 in that game while being sacked four times. Chris Polk led Washington in rushing last season and so far sophomore Bishop Sankey is getting the most looks out of the backfield, though he has just 185 yards so far this season. Freshman Erich Wilson II who ironically is from Palo Alto got 15 carries in the last game and he could gradually see more carries as the season goes on. Washington’s receiving corps has been led by tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins, a sophomore that already has 20 catches on the season. Also sophomore Kasen Williams has enjoyed a strong start to the season and will be the top deep threat for the team. Washington does have new coordinators on both sides of the ball this season with former California assistant Eric Kiesau now leading the offense and injuries among the offensive line are taking a toll already this season.

Stanford played an incredible defensive game against USC, limiting the Trojans to just 280 yards and 15 first downs. The Cardinal currently own the top rush defense in the nation having allowed just over 41 yards per game but keep in mind that Stanford has faced three pass oriented teams and has also played with a lead in all three games as there has been just 77 rush attempts against Stanford, with an impressive 1.61 yards per carry allowed by the Cardinal. Last season Washington had 430 yards in this matchup including 172 yards on the ground, the second most yards of the season on the ground against Stanford.

Washington’s bowl game last season proved to be a disaster as Baylor posted 777 yards in a 67-56 win in the Alamo Bowl. Former Tennessee and Boise State defensive coordinator Justin Wilcox was hired in the offseason to make adjustments for the Washington defense. The numbers are respectable so far this season with 342 yards per game allowed but the figures are skewed as Portland State was held to 261 yards. LSU was able to move the ball pretty easily with 437 yards. Washington returned seven starters from last year’s team including six of the top seven leading tacklers and the unit should show improvement after allowing 453 yards and nearly 36 points per game last season.

The big concern for Stanford has to be with Nunes making his first ever road start and if the team will fall into a letdown trap after the huge win over USC in a game the team played nearly flawlessly. The extra time between games could help in that regard but this will be a motivated Washington team in dire need of a marquee win. Washington has been blown out in the last two meetings of this series including being shutout two years ago in the last home meeting. This is the most critical stretch of the season for Washington as they will play Oregon and USC in the next two weeks, if they can win this game losing the next two won’t be as devastating but a 2-4 start with several challenging Pac-12 games still ahead could really derail this team and confidence in the direction of the program.

Line Movement: Initial offerings priced this game with Stanford as 7-point favorite, bumping down to -6½ on Tuesday. The total opened at 49½ and steadily fell to 47½ before seeing some recent jumps back up to 48 or 48½. Stanford can be found at -250 on the money-line (Bet $250 to win $100).

Last Meeting: In 2011 a 6-0 Stanford team pounded Washington 65-21 at home. The Cardinal was ranked #7 in the nation at that point while Washington had cracked the rankings at #22 with a 5-1 start. Some saw this is as a potential flat spot for Stanford as they played at USC the following week but the Cardinal posted 615 yards including a punishing ground attack that delivered a school record 446 yards on the ground. It was a competitive game early with Stanford leading just 17-14 in the second quarter before Stepfan Taylor broke a 70-yard run and then closing the half with an interception return touchdown. Washington had three turnovers and allowed Stanford to go 8 for 12 on 3rd down.

Series History: Washington has won 19 of the last 27 meetings S/U but the tide has turned in recent years. Stanford has won four straight and six of the last seven. Against the spread Stanford has won eight of the last 10 meetings including four in a row the last four years as well as covering in each of the last four trips to Seattle. Only one of the last eight meetings has been decided by fewer than 11 points.

Stanford Historical Trends: David Shaw had an epic ATS season last year going 11-2 SU and ATS in his first year as the head coach. This season Stanford is 2-1 ATS as they struggled mightily in a tight opening game with San Jose State. Stanford is 8-2 ATS since 2010 as a road favorite and in both ATS misses they won and missed covering by a point. Since 1998 Stanford has been a good road team with a 40-33-2 ATS mark but almost all of the ATS success can be accounted for in the last four years as Stanford is now 36-18 ATS since the start of the 2008 season.

Washington Historical Trends: Since Sarkisian took over at Washington, the Huskies are 15-6 S/U and 12-9 ATS at home but just 4-5 S/U and 5-4 ATS as a home underdog. Going back to 1981 Washington is 25-20 ATS as a home underdog and the numbers would be far better if you omitted the ugly 2008 season. Going back to the early part of the last decade Washington was one of the worst ATS performers in the nation at home as since 2000 Washington is just 32-46-2 ATS at home but the numbers have been good with the current coaching staff. Washington is just 4-8 ATS in the last 12 games as an underdog between six and 10 points.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:31402 Followers:37
09/27/2012 12:31 AM

Tech Trends - Week 5

September 26, 2012

Thursday, Sept. 20
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

STANFORD at WASHINGTON...Tree has rolled last two years vs. Huskies (41-0 & 65-21) and has won and covered last four meetings. Tree 19-7 as chalk since 2010 (8-5 as road chalk). Sarkisian 0-3 as home dog past two years (at Husky Stadium). Stanford, based on team and series trends.

Friday, Sept. 28
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

HAWAII at BYU...Cougs 9-2 vs. line last 11 on board after thriller at Boise last Thursday. Bronco Mendenhall 20-11 vs. line last 31 on board since late '09, 6-3 as DD chalk at Provo since 2010. Slight to BYU, based on team trends.

Saturday, Sept. 29
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

CINCINNATI vs. VIRGINIA TECH (at FedEx Field)...Beamer 5-14 vs. line since late in the 2010 season. Butch Jones, however, just 2-5 as dog for Cincy since 2010. Slight to Cincy, based on recent Beamer spread woes.
BUFFALO at UCONN...Pasqualoni 5-1 vs. line last 6 on board since late 2011. Bulls no covers last two years vs. Huskies and Jeff Quinn just 6-13 as dog since 2010 (5-5 since LY, however). UConn, based on recent trends.

PENN STATE at ILLINOIS...Nittany Lions 2-5 as road dog since 2010 but O'Brien has covered three in a row TY. Slight to PSU, based on team and series trends.

MINNESOTA at IOWA...Floyd of Rosedale! Minnesota has won this game the past two years and Gophers have covered 5 of last 6 Floyd battles. Iowa 0-4 vs. line TY and 5-12 against spread since 2011. Jerry Kill 7-1-1 vs. line since late 2011. Minnesota, based on team and series trends.v

TEXAS TECH at IOWA STATE...ISU has brutalized TT last two seasons with resounding upset wins by combined 93-45 scoreline! Now ISU likely favored and Cyclones 0-3 in that role since LY. Slight to TT, based on ISU chalk woes.

CLEMSON at BOSTON COLLEGE...Under-fire Spaziani just 4-10 vs. line at home since 2010. Dabo 7-2 vs. line last 9 away from Death Valley. Clemson, based on recent BC home woes.

LA TECH at VIRGINIA...LT 10-0 vs. line away since LY! Va only 3-6-1 vs. line last 10 at home. LT, based on team trends.

OHIO at UMASS...Solich only 4-4 as road chalk since 2010, but Minutemen only 1-3 vs. line TY. Ohio, based on UMass negatives.

BALL STATE at KENT STATE...Pete Lembo 4-0 vs. line TY and 9-1 vs. spread dating back to mid 2011. Ball State 7-2 vs. points away for Lembo since LY and 26-11 in role since back in 2007. Ball State, based on extended road trend.

IDAHO at NORTH CAROLINA...Akey 5-3 as DD road dog since 2010, and has covered 6 of last 7 vs. non-conference foes away from Kibbie Dome. Slight to Idaho, based on team trends.

INDIANA at NORTHWESTERN...Hoosiers have covered 3 of last 4 in series but were buried at home by Cats LY. Pat Fitzgerald 6-12 last 18 as Evanston chalk but won and covered first four this season. Hoosiers just 3-6 as dog on road since 2010. Slight to NU, based on recent trends.

MARSHALL at PURDUE...Purdue 3-0 vs. line TY and Boilermakers now 5-0 last 5, and 9-3 last 12 on board since early 2011. Purdue 6-3 vs. line at Ross-Ade since LY. Herd 4-11 vs. points away since 2010. Purdue, based on recent trends.

DUKE at WAKE FOREST...Duke 4-1-1 vs. line last six meetings vs. Wake. Cutcliffe 16-10-2 vs. line since 2010. Duke, based on team trends.

SOUTH CAROLINA at KENTUCKY...Joker's UK only 6-12 as dog since 2010 (4-3 as home dog, more trouble on road). Spurrier is 5-2 vs. line against UK since taking over at SC in 2005. SC, based on team and series trends.

COLORADO STATE at AIR FORCE...CSU no wins or covers in 3 since CU opener, and Rams now 5-13 vs. points last 18 on board. Force has won last 5 in series in style (win margins 22, 21, 18, 22, and 24, only non-cover the 22-point win in 2010). Air Force, based on series trends.

TCU at SMU...Metroplex war. Revenge for TCU after shock home loss LY. Patterson 4-1 vs. line last five revenge games (there haven't been many of those for Frogs the past few years). June Jones just 2-8 vs. line last 10 since early 2010, and hasn't covered a regular-season game vs. an FBS foes that span. SMU just 10-20 vs. line at home since 2007. TCU, based on SMU negatives.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at NORTHERN ILLINOIS...CMU HC Dan Enos got great win and cover at Iowa but still just 4-19 vs. points last 23 on board. Although wouldn't you know the only CMU win and cover LY was at expense of NIU. NIU, based on CMU negatives.

UCLA at COLORADO...Jon Embree 5-12 vs. spread since a year ago. Buffs were a bit better at 2-2 as home dog LY. Bruins 3-1 SU and vs. line for Mora, but note 4-11 spread mark away from home since 2010. UCLA, based on CU negatives.

SAN JOSE STATE at NAVY...SJS on a nice spread run, 4-0 vs. line TY, 7-0 last seven since LY (including 27-24 win over Navy in 2011), and 12-3 last 15 on board. Navy 4-8 last 12 on board. SJSU, based on recent trends.

OREGON vs. WASHINGTON STATE (at Seattle)...Cougs haven't beaten UO since 2006 but have covered the last two years in series. Leach only 0-4 vs. line TY, however. Ducks 5-1 as road chalk LY (3-0 laying DD away) and 8-4 laying DD on road since 2007. Oregon, based on Arizona, based on team trends.

TEXAS at OKLAHOMA STATE...Texas might be back on the upswing and big revenge for Mack after losses the last two years vs. OSU. Gundy 21-8 vs. line since 2010 and 18-8 at Stillwater since 2007. OSU, based on recent series and team trends.

ARKANSAS at TEXAS A&M...Ark 0-4 vs. line for John L. Hogs won and covered last three years when these two played at Jerry Jones Stadium. A&M, based on recent Arkansas negatives.

BAYLOR at WEST VIRGINIA...WVU Big 12 debut! While o.c. at OK State in 2010, Holgorsen beat Art Briles 55-28. Baylor only 2-7 vs. spread last 9 away. Slight to WVU, based on recent Baylor road woes.

OHIO STATE at MICHIGAN STATE...Urban Meyer was 2-2 in rare dog roles for Florida between 2007-10. Buckeyes were 11-4 vs. line away for Tressel and Fickell last two years (8-0 for Tressel in 2010). MSU no covers first 3 at home TY. Slight to OSU, based on extended road trends.

TENNESSEE at GEORGIA...Derek Dooley 0-2 SU and vs. line against Richt the past two seasons. Dooley 3-11 as dog since 2010. Georgia, based on recent series and team trends.

ARIZONA STATE at CAL...Todd Graham 3-0-1 vs. line at ASU, his teams are 19-9-1 vs. points since 2010 at Tulsa, Pitt, and ASU. Slight to ASU, based on Todd Graham factor.

OREGON STATE at ARIZONA...Mike Riley 2-0 as dog TY, 22-10-1 in role since 2007, and 25-10-1 last 36 in role since mid 2006. Riley has also mostly owned UA with wins and covers in 5 of 6 and 7 of 9 since returning to Beavers in 2003. OSU, based on series and team trends.

OLE MISS at ALABAMA...Hugh "Pointspread Cover" Freeze now 13-3 vs. line since LY at Ark State & Ole Miss. Rebs have covered 5 of last 7 in this series (though Nick has covered 2 of last 3). Slight to Ole Miss, based on Freeze and extended series trends.

MIAMI-OHIO at AKRON...No covers first four for Miami-O, also 6-16 as chalk since 2007. Zips were only 7-14 as dog past two years, but Terry Bowden three straight covers TY. Akron, based on recent trends.

MISSOURI at UCF...UCF 17-9 as home chalk since 2007. UCF, especially if dog, based on team trends.

UTEP at EAST CAROLINA...ECU 7-13 last 20 on board since mid 2010. UTEP, based on team trends.

NC STATE at MIAMI-FLORIDA...Canes 0-1 vs. line at home TY and now 11-21 vs. spread as host since 2007. Tom O'Brien 26-14-1 as dog for NCS since 2007. NCS, based on extended trends.

FLORIDA STATE at SOUTH FLORIDA...Skip only 2-11 vs. line last 13 on board, and no covers last seven at Raymond James. Skip only 4-11 vs. points at home since 2010 and 0-2 as home dog that span. Jimbo 4-1 as road chalk LY. FSU, based on recent trends.

TOLEDO at WESTERN MICHIGAN...Road-oriented series with visitor covering last five meetings. Toledo 7-3 as road dog since 2010, although WMU is 7-1 against spread last eight at Waldo Stadium. Toledo, based on series road trends.

NEVADA at TEXAS STATE...Pack 5-2 vs. line last 7 away. Nevada, based on recent road trends.

LOUISVILLE at SOUTHERN MISS...Ellis Johnson no covers first three TY for USM. Charlie Strong 11-3 vs. line away since 2010for Cards. Louisville, based on Charlie Strong road marks.

UTSA at NEW MEXICO STATE...Look out for Coker, 4-0 SU and 2-0 vs. line in early going! UTSA WAC debut. Slight to UTSA, based on recent trends.

WISCONSIN at NEBRASKA...Bielema 0-4 vs. line TY, now 1-6-1 vs. spread away from Madison since LY. Bo Pelini has covered first three at Lincoln in 2012 after 5-9 home spread mark the past two years. Revenge for Pelini after 48-17 loss in Madison LY. Nebraska, based on recent Wisconsin road woes.

TULSA at UAB...Tulsa 10-5 vs. line away since 2010. Tulsa, based on team trends.

UNLV at UTAH STATE...Bobby Hauck 0-14 SU and 1-13 vs. line on road past two seasons. Rebs 8-32 vs. line on road since 2005. USU, based on UNLV road woes.

HOUSTON vs. RICE (at Reliant Stadium)...Rice has covered 4 of last 6 meetings but has a score to settle after LY's 73-34 loss to Case Keenum & Co. Houston dreadful 0-3 SU and vs. line thus far and never having a lead in the process. Rice 23-11 vs. line within city limits since 2007. Rice, based on team trends.

BOISE STATE at NEW MEXICO...Boise road spread mark now 12-3 since 2010 (11-3 as road chalk), 25-10 since 2007. Lobos 1-6 as DD home dog since 2010, although this will be Bob Davie's first chance in role. Boise, based on road trend.

SAN DIEGO STATE at FRESNO STATE...Tim DeRuyter off quickly at 4-0 vs. line in his debut for Fresno. Willing to overlook recent home spread failures under the former Pat Hill regime. Fresno, based on recent trends.

Saturday, Sept. 29 - Added Games
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

WESTERN KENTUCKY at ARKANSAS STATE...Toppers now on 13-game cover streak! WKU has also won 6 straight Belt games since losing a close one (but covering) vs. Red Wolves LY. Ark State is 11-5 itself vs. points since LY). WKU, based on team trends.

TROY at SOUTH ALABAMA...Troy 3-1 vs. line early TY after subpar 3-9 mark a year ago. But Trojans just 5-13 as chalk (1-1 TY) since 2010. Slight to USA, based on extended Troy chalk woes.

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL at LOUISIANA...Ragin' Cajuns have covered 6 of last 7 in this series dating back to the Ricky Bustle days. Hudspeth 11-5 vs. line for ULL since LY. Louisiana, based on series and team trends.

NORTH TEXAS at FLORIDA ATLANTIC...... 8-20 vs. line since 2010 and 3-8 vs. spread as host since then (1-5 vs. line at new Owls Stadium since LY). UNT, based on team trends.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE at GEORGIA TECH...Tech has won and covered big the last two years vs. MTSU. MTSU 2-1 vs. line TY but 9-19 vs. mark since 2010. GT, based on team and series trends.

UL-MONROE at TULANE...ULM 3-0 vs. line TY and has covered 6 of last 7 since late 2011. Tulane 9-23 vs. points at home since 2007. ULM, based on team trends.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:31402 Followers:37
09/27/2012 12:35 AM

Browns at Ravens

September 26, 2012

Following a nail-biting 31-30 win over New England on Sunday night, Baltimore is poised to host division-rival Cleveland on Thursday night at home.

As of early Wednesday, most books had Baltimore (2-1 straight up, 2-1 against the spread) favored by 12 ½ or 13 with the total at 43 ½. Bettors can take the Browns to win outright for a lucrative plus-550 payout (risk $100 to win $550).

John Harbaugh’s club rallied from a 30-21 fourth-quarter deficit to beat the Patriots on Justin Tucker’s 27-yard field goal as time expired. Joe Flacco completed 28-of-39 passes for 382 yards and three touchdowns compared to one interception.

Flacco’s favorite target was second-year wide receiver Torrey Smith, who played despite the fact that his 19-year-old younger brother was killed in a motorcycle crash Saturday night. In honor of his late brother, Smith hauled in six receptions for 127 yards and two touchdowns.

Ray Rice rushed 20 times for 101 yards and one score, a seven-yard scamper to paydirt early in the third quarter. Rice also had five catches for 49 yards.

For the season, Flacco is second in the NFL with 913 passing yards. He has completed 64.5-percent of his throws with a 6/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Flacco has a QB rating of 101.1, which is notable because his career-best rating is 93.6.

Rice is seventh in the NFL with 268 rushing yards and is tied for the league lead with three rushing TDs. Rice is averaging 5.8 yards per carry.

Cleveland (0-3 SU, 1-1-1 ATS) and New Orleans are the NFL’s only winless teams left. The Browns have losses vs. Philadelphia (17-16), at Cincinnati (34-27) and vs. Buffalo (24-14). They covered the spread as home underdogs against the Eagles, pushed in the loss to the Bengals and failed to cover as 2 ½-point ‘dogs against the Bills.

Since throwing four interceptions in a nightmare Week 1 performance, Cleveland rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden has played much better. The Oklahoma St. product threw for 322 yards and a pair of TDs without an interception against the Bengals.

Weeden was picked off twice by Buffalo, but he did throw for 237 yards and a 22-yard scoring strike to rookie Travis Benjamin.

Cleveland rookie RB Trent Richardson was limited during training camp with a knee problem, and he was held to just 27 rushing yards on 12 carries against the Bills. Richardson was also held in check against the Eagles, but he produced his first 100-yard rushing game against the Bengals by rushing for 107 yards on 19 carries.

Richardson has rushed for 175 yards and two TDs, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry. He has 11 catches for 65 yards and one score.

Dating back to last season, the Browns have lost nine in a row and 12 of their last 13. However, they are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games.

Baltimore has won eight in a row over Cleveland, compiling a 6-2 spread record in the process. The Ravens have been favored by double digits in four of those eight contests, going 2-2 ATS.

The ‘over’ has been a winner in all three of Baltimore’s games this year. The ‘under’ is 2-1 for the Browns. In the last six head-to-head meetings between these AFC North rivals, the ‘under’ has cashed at a 5-1 clip.

Cleveland starting cornerback Joe Haden is ‘out’ as he continues to serve a four-game suspension from the NFL. WR Mohamed Massaquoi (9 catches for 145 yards) left the Buffalo game with a hamstring injury and sat out Tuesday’s practice. However, according the Cleveland Plain-Dealer, the coaching staff is optimistic that he’ll play at Baltimore.

The NFL Network will have the telecast at 8:20 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--There are five home underdogs in Week 4: Jets +4 vs. 49ers, Bills +4 vs. Patriots, Chiefs +1 vs. Chargers, Rams +2.5 vs. Seahawks and Jags +2.5 vs. Bengals.

--Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan owns a 46-19 career record in games he’s started.

--With last week’s win at San Diego, the Falcons have won all six games they have played in the Pacific time zone since Mike Smith took over as head coach. has updated its futures to win this year’s Super Bowl. The Texans are the plus-350 ‘chalk,’ followed by the 49ers (5/1), Falcons (7/1), Ravens (8/1), Packers (9/1), Patriots (10/1) and the Giants (18/1).

--The Browns are 200/1 long-shots to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at the offshore betting shop. They are joined with the longest NFL odds by the Colts, Jaguars, Rams and Dolphins.

--There aren’t many believers in the 2-1 Vikings, as evidenced by their 100/1 odds to win the Super Bowl at Sportsbook.

--Baltimore has the second-shortest odds to win the AFC with 4/1 odds. The Texans are the plus-140 ‘chalk.’

--Green Bay, New England and New Orleans have combined to post a 2-7 record to date. Who saw that coming?

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:31402 Followers:37
09/27/2012 12:45 AM

NFL Tech Trends - Week 4

September 26, 2012

College Football Trends

Thursday, Sept. 27 - NFL, 8:25 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Brownies haven't beaten Ravens SU since 2007 (Billick's days; 8 straight up losses to John Harbaugh), but lately this has been a visitor series with road team covering last five. Series also "under" 5 of last 6, and Cleveland "under" 11-6-1 since LY. "Under" and slight to Browns, based on series road and "totals" trends.

Sunday, Sept. 30 - All games to start at 1:00 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Belichick had a 15-game SU win streak over Buffalo snapped in the first meeting last season. Pats 11-5-1 last 17 vs. Bills. Belichick, based on series and team trends.

Lions 1-9 vs. line last 10 since mid 2011 and 3-12 last 15 on board since losing to 49ers in mid-Oct. 2011. Lions also "over" 25-13-2 last 40 since late 2009. Slight to "over," based on "totals" trends.

Falcs have won and covered all four meetings since 2010, including both vs. Cam LY. Falcs 10-4-1 vs. spread last 15 at Georgia Dome since early 2010. Falcons, based on series trends.

Harbaugh 14-6-1 vs. line since taking over 49ers LY. Rexy has covered just 3 of last 11 on board since mid 2011. Jets also "over" 5-1 last 6 as host. 49ers and slight to "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Chiefs have beaten Norv last two years at Arrowhead and are 5-1 vs. number since 2009 vs. Bolts. Norv 4-11 as road chalk first half of season since 2007. Chiefs, based on series trends.
Kubiak won and covered both meetings LY and is 17-5 vs. number since late in 2010 campaign. Texans also "under" 15-6 since LY. Texans and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

Pete Carroll has won and covered last three vs. Rams. Carroll 15-7 vs. points last 21 on board since late 2010. Seahawks, based on team and series trends.

Sunday, Sept. 30 - Games to start at 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Whisenhunt 10-2 SU last 12 and 10-3 vs. spread since mid 2011. Cards "under" 8-3-1 last 12 since mid 2011, Miami "under" 13-6 since 2011. "Under" and Cards, based on "totals" and team trends.

Raiders had won and covered 4 straight in series prior to Tebow's win LY at Coliseum, 38-24. Last five "over" in series, Broncos "over" 29-13 since late '09. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

Cincy "over" 13-6-1 since 2011, and this matchup was "over" LY (30-20 Bengals win last Oct. 9 at JV). "Over," based on "totals" trends.

Saints now 0-3 SU and vs. line in 2012, and "over" 14-8 last 22 since late 2010. Pack "over" 14-6 last 20 since late 2010 and 12-4 vs. line last 16 at Lambeau. "Over" and Pack, based on "totals" and team trends.

Schiano has covered first 3 as Bucs reverse form from late LY when dropping 9 of last 10 vs. line (and 10 in a row SU). But Bucs still just 1-12 last 13 SU. Shan 7-4 vs. line last 11 away, and "over" 8-2 last 10 since late LY. "Over" and Skins, based on "totals" and team trends.

Sunday, Sept. 30 - NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Andy Reid has won and covered 7 of last 8 vs. Coughlin, although road teams won and covered both games LY. But Reid just 4-10 last 14 as chalk. And G-Men have covered their last 6 away from home. Giants, based on team trends.

Monday, Oct. 1 - ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Dallas 4-18-1 in favorite role since 2010. Cowboys also just 5-12 last 16 vs. points at Jerry Jones Stadium since 2010. Cowboys also "under" 14-6 last 19 since late 2010. Bears and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:31402 Followers:37
09/27/2012 12:48 AM

NFL Week 4 Preview: Browns at Ravens



Kickoff: Thursday, 8:35 p.m. EDT
Line: Baltimore -13, Total: 43½

Baltimore looks for a ninth straight series victory over Cleveland when the AFC North foes clash on Thursday night at M&T Bank Stadium.

QB Brandon Weeden and the Browns’ struggling offense could be in for a long night in this matchup. The rookie has been quite shaky through his first three NFL games, and a road start in Baltimore is an incredibly tough environment. The Ravens figure to utilize their up-tempo, no-huddle offense even more in this one in order to maximize possessions and keep Cleveland from shortening the game. Baltimore is coming off an emotional win over New England, with WR Torrey Smith having a career night (127 yards, 2 TD) less than 24 hours after losing his brother in a motorcycle accident.

Can the Ravens cover this hefty spread against the Browns? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Weeden actually had his best game of the young season on the road, when he threw for 322 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT at Cincinnati in Week 2. But he regressed last week at home in a 24-14 loss to Buffalo, throwing for just 5.5 yards per attempt with 1 TD and 2 INT. Same goes for RB Trent Richardson who rushed for 109 yards (5.7 YPC) against the Bengals, but just 27 yards (2.3 YPC) against the Bills. Richardson will have to be much better as the clear focal point of this Browns offense, likely handling the football 20+ times per game. Many of these touches could be in the passing game, where Baltimore surrenders 290 passing YPG (fifth-most in NFL). Cleveland could be without top receiver Mohamed Massaquoi, who is questionable with a hamstring injury. WR/KR Josh Cribbs (knee) and TE Alex Smith (concussion) are also questionable for Thursday. Defensively, the Browns have done some good things, like forcing seven turnovers (five versus Philadelphia) and holding the past two opponents to a combined 218 yards on 49 carries (4.4 YPC). However, Cleveland clearly misses suspended CB Joe Haden, as the team has surrendered 269 passing YPG (sixth-most in NFL).

The Ravens figure to use a steady diet of Ray Rice on Thursday night, especially considering he piled up 349 total yards in the two meetings with the Browns last year. Rice is also coming off 150 total yards against New England and has averaged 5.8 yards per carry this season. He also has 11 catches in the past two weeks, helping QB Joe Flacco compile 913 passing yards (2nd in NFL). Flacco has thrown 6 TD and just 2 INT this season, and is coming off a huge 382-yard, 3-TD outburst against the Patriots. Although he is 8-0 all-time versus Cleveland, his numbers in this series are pretty ordinary: 1,528 passing yards (191 YPG), 10 TD, 4 INT. There was nothing ordinary about Torrey Smith’s performance just hours after his 19-year-old brother died in a motorcycle accident. Smith caught six passes for 127 yards and 2 TD against New England. The Ravens defense has struggled without reigning Defensive Player of the Year OLB Terrell Suggs, allowing 401 total YPG (27th in NFL). However, Baltimore has held Cleveland to a mere 11.3 PPG and 256 total YPG in the past three meetings.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:31402 Followers:37
09/27/2012 07:45 PM

Short Sheet

Week 5

Thursday, September 27, 2012

Stanford at Washington, 8:00 ET
Stanford: 12-3 ATS in all lined games
Washington: 42-25 Over in weeks 5 through 9

Friday, September 28, 2012

Hawaii at BYU, 8:00 ET
Hawaii: 10-2 Over off a home loss against a conference rival
BYU: 5-24 ATS after a 2 game road trip

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:31402 Followers:37
09/27/2012 07:47 PM

Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 5

Thursday's game
First road start for Stanford QB Nunes, who's completed only 53.9% of his passes; Cardinal was outgained in narrow 20-17 win over San Jose State, but then beat USC in last game- they've won six of last seven tilts with Washington, crushing Huskies 41-0/65-21 last two years. Stanford is 9-1 vs spread as road favorites last two years; they're 20-4 vs spread in game following their last 24 wins. Since '08, Washington is 5-9 against spread as a home dog, 0-3 last two years. Conference home underdogs are 6-4 vs spread so far this season. Both teams have six starters back on offense, seven on defense and three on OL. Washington QB Price is very mobile and is more experience (16 starts) than Nunes.

Friday's game
Hawai'i coach Chow was longtime aide at BYU, developing their rep as a quarterback factory; now he's in his first year as HC, but Warriors lost 12 starters from LY, have been outscored 118-34 in two games vs I-A opponents-- kid on Nevada had seven rushing TDs against them a week ago. Hawai'i is 8-8 as road underdogs last 5+ years- they lost 41-20 (+8) to BYU LY, giving up 530 TY. Cougars lost bizarre 7-6 game at Boise last week, when Mendenhall went for 2-point conversion with 3:30 left even though Boise's kicker was awful-- BYU would've had edge in OT. Cougars are 8-4 in last dozen games as home favorites- they've got little bit of a QB controversy going on. MWC road underdogs are 12-3.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:31402 Followers:37
09/27/2012 07:50 PM


Thursday, September 27

Stanford at Washington: What bettors need to know

Stanford Cardinal at Washington Huskies (+6.5, 49.5)

Andrew Luck and Jim Harbaugh may have moved on to the NFL, but second-year coach David Shaw and No. 9 Stanford haven’t skipped a beat.

For the first time since 1970-72, the Cardinal improved to 3-0 for the third straight season with their fourth consecutive victory over then-No. 3 USC on Sept. 15, holding the Trojans to only 26 yards rushing and intercepting Heisman hopeful quarterback Matt Barkley twice in a thrilling 21-14 victory.

However, Stanford will face its first road test of the season Thursday when it travels to CenturyLink Field in Seattle to meet Washington, which will be facing the first of three consecutive ranked opponents. The Huskies rebounded from a 41-3 drubbing Sept. 8 at LSU with a 52-13 rout of Portland State the following week.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Stanford opened as a touchdown favorite and has been bet down to -6. The total has climbed from 49 to 49.5 points.

WEATHER: The forecast for CenturyLink Field is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the mid 60s. Winds will blow NW at speeds of 5 mph.

COVERS CONSENSUS: Over 65 percent of players are on Stanford.

ABOUT STANFORD (3-0, 1-0 Pac-12, 1-2 ATS): Josh Nunes has won each of his first three starts, becoming the first Cardinal quarterback since Steve Stenstrom in 1991 to accomplish that feat. While he has managed the team well, much of his early success can be attributed to an offensive line that has allowed only two sacks and a strong running game led by running back Stepfan Taylor, who ranks second in the conference with 112.7 rushing yards per game. The defense has also been incredible, limiting opponents to 41.7 rushing yards per game – the lowest mark in the nation – and one passing score through three contests.

ABOUT WASHINGTON (2-1, 2-0, 2-1 ATS): The Huskies got back on track offensively following the LSU debacle by setting a school record with 31 second-quarter points en route to a 45-point first half, tying another team mark. Despite Stanford’s defensive prowess to this point, sophomore tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins could present matchup problems. Seferian-Jenkins, who ranks third in the country among tight ends with 20 receptions, is a legitimate NFL prospect at 6 feet 6, 258 pounds and likely the most athletic tight end the Cardinal will face this season.


* Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Washington.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.
* Road team is 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.


1. Stanford has won its last three road openers and last three conference road openers.

2. Washington holds a 40-38-4 lead in the series, although the Cardinal have won four straight and six of the last seven meetings.

3. Stanford is one of only nine FBS teams to hold each of its opponents to less than 20 points.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: