CFB LINE MOVES AND INFO
3 Replies | 545 ViewsOn 09/17/2011 09:44 AM in NCAA Football
Akron Zips at Cincinnati Bearcats – Open: Cincinnati -30, Current: -34
Public wagering trend on Cincinnati - 76 percent
Akron is a bad football team and books underestimated how strong the appetite was to fade the Zips again this week. Zippy Chippy has been outscored 83-3 through two games and makes a compelling argument to be considered one of the worst teams in the FBS.
Cincinnati steam drove this number up four points already and with sharp and squares looking to back the Bearcats, this price may continue to soar. Lay it or don’t play it in this type of non-conference beatdown.
Penn State Nittany Lions at Temple Owls – Open: Penn State -10, Current: -7
Public wagering trend on Penn State - 71 percent
One book opened this game at 6.5 and I happen to believe that’s a better number than what offshores used since Temple has the most explosive playmaker on either side of the ball in Bernard Pierce. Grab the points in this one because if PSU doesn’t bring it, they’ll leave with a loss against a revenge-minded Owls team seeking to atone for a nine-point defeat last year.
Colorado State Rams at Colorado Buffaloes – Open: Colorado -7.5, Move: -10.5, Current: -7.5
Public wagering trend on Colorado - 52 percent
I wish I knew why this line has moved a total of six points right back to its original opener. I’m not sure either team deserves to be over a TD chalk and the betting marketplace echoes similar sentiments.
This used to be a proud rivalry with national implications, but I’m not sure if Colorado residents even care at this point. When two teams look to be the embodiment of mediocrity, lean the points like sharper bettors do because nothing good comes from laying lumber with bad teams.
Washington State Cougars at San Diego State Aztecs – Open: SDSU -7, Current: SDSU -5
Public wagering trend on SDSU - 72 percent
Every line doesn’t move from 7 to 5 without resistance. This is the definition of sharp money and public money latching onto an undervalued Cougars side that is 2-0 for the first time since 2005.
I’m not sure I believe this is a genuine line move to WSU and I actually anticipate some sharp money coming in on SDSU if the price drops any further before Saturday’s kickoff.
Arizona State Sun Devils at Illinois Fighting Illini – Open: ASU -2, Current: Illinois -1
Public wagering trend on ASU - 71 percent
Letdown time is in store for ASU headed to Champaign to face an underrated Illini team looking to control pace with their ground game. Illinois hasn’t been tested this year and benefits from their third straight home game to start the season.
Under the lights in Champaign the emotional angle heavily favors the home team and the three-point move reveals the marketplace feels the same way. Value in the opening number is gone but the situational advantage for Zook’s squad enticed plenty of sharp action initially.
Utah Utes at BYU Cougars – Open: BYU -6.5, Current -3.5
Public wagering trend on BYU - 74 percent
It feels a little different this year considering the Holy War won’t have conference implications. This line opened 6.5 and immediately drew heavy Utah money driving the price down.
BYU has shown it can’t score or move the football the first two weeks so that tends to be a problem when you’re installed as a favorite. Sure, this is the first game in Provo, but sharps appear intent on grabbing the points and making the Cougars prove their merits. I can’t see this game hitting -3 but there’s a good chance we see buyback as the price dips further.