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Cnotes Preseason Best Bets + Wagering Tips !

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On 08/04/2012 11:07 AM in NFL
Preseason Profit Report

August 1, 2012

Betting on the NFL preseason is one of the most profitable endeavors you can partake in this football season. The secret to making money in the preseason is the ability to know which coaches are trying to win and which coaches are just going through the motions. That factor in itself will give you a huge edge over the sportsbooks. Also, I can't say it enough but you also need to be familiar with the history of each team in August. Plus, keeping an eye out on each team's preseason quarterback rotations will also make you turn a nice profit in the preseason. Without further adieu, let's start handicapping!

As mentioned above coaching is key and you should be aware of this year's head coaching changes:

1) Jeff Fisher, St. Louis - Former Tennessee head coach (142-120 regular season, 5-6 in the playoffs)

2) Joe Philbin, Miami - Former Green Bay offensive coordinator. During his stay as offensive coordinator (2007-2011), the Packers offense ranked in the top 10 in the NFL for points scored and total yards every year.

3) Romeo Crennel, Kansas City - Browns head coach for 4 years 2005-08 (26-41) plus took over for Todd Haley last season in Kansas City after 13 games.

4) Dennis Allen, Oakland - Defense will be the priority in Oakland with Allen taking over the Raiders. Allen previously coached as an assistant for the Denver Broncos, New Orleans Saints, and Atlanta Falcons.

5) Chuck Pagano, Indianapolis - Pagano was the defensive coordinator last season for the Ravens, and was hired to John Harbaugh's first coaching staff back on 2008. Pagano's defense in Baltimore finished 3rd in both points allowed and in yards allowed last year.

6) Greg Schiano, Tampa Bay - This is a big jump for Schiano here as in my opinion as he did a lousy job at Rutgers going - one game over .500 at (68-67) during his tenure.

7) Mike Mularkey, Jacksonville - He has served as the head coach of the Buffalo Bills, and the offensive coordinator for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Offensive minded coach - something to pay attention to this preseason.

Here is a complete roster of the current NFL coaches preseason records both straight up and against the spread, plus their 'over/under' total marks as well.

Coaching Records - Preseason
Coach Team SU ATS O/U
Jim Harbaugh 49ers 2-2 2-2 1-3
Lovie Smith Bears 16-17 15-17 17-16
Marvin Lewis Bengals 18-19 18-18 19-17
Chan Gailey Bills 4-14 5-13 1 2-6
John Fox Broncos 21-19 18-21 20-19
Pat Shurmur Browns 1-3 1-3 3-1
Greg Schiano Bucs N/A N/A N/A
Ken Whisenhunt Cardinals 7-13 8-11 10-10
Norv Turner Chargers 28-28 24-26 36-20
Romeo Crennel Chiefs 8-8 9-7 6-10
Chuck Pagano Colts N/A N/A N/A
Jason Garrett Cowboys 2-2 1-3 2-2
Joe Philbin Dolphins N/A N/A N/A
Andy Reid Eagles 21-31 22-28 28-23
Mike Smith Falcons 6-10 7-7-2 6-10
Tom Coughlin Giants 35-30 32-29 41-24
Mike Mularkey Jaguars 3-5 5-3 2-6
Rex Ryan Jets 6-6 7-5 8-3-1
Jim Schwartz Lions 10-2 9-3 6-6
Mike McCarthy Packers 12-12 12-11 19-5
Ron Rivera Panthers 1-3 1-3 2-2
Bill Belichick Patriots 38-31 35-28 43-25
Dennis Allen Raiders N/A N/A N/A
Jeff Fisher Rams 34-27 32-29 33-27-1
John Harbaugh Ravens 11-5 9-7 5-11
Mike Shanahan Redskins 47-29 42-32-2 48-28
Joe Vitt Saints N/A N/A N/A
Pete Carroll Seahawks 13-12 15-9-1 13-12
Mike Tomlin Steelers 16-5 13-8 7-13
Gary Kubiak Texans 13-11 13-9 17-7
Mike Munchak Titans 3-1 3-1 1-3
Leslie Frazier Vikings 5-3 5-3 3-5


So by looking at this chart some apparent plays sure stick out.

There are three coaches that sure don't care about anything to do with winning in the preseason. So let's look to fade the Bills (Chan Gailey), Cardinals (Ken Whisenhunt) and the Eagles (Andy Reid) as the trio own a combined 32-58 straight up (36%) in the preseason.

Chan Gailey owns a 4-14 record in the preseason.

Ken Whisenhunt of the Cardinals is just 7-13 (35%) and is a strong play against, especially in the first preseason game.

Andy Reid is 21-31 with the Eagles and up until last year, he was 0-7 ATS in the preseason opener. Surprisingly, Philadelphia went 3-1 in the preseason last year.

Plus it may not show in the above chart - one of the strongest preseason plays is to fade the Kansas City Chiefs - no matter who the head coach is as the Chiefs are a dismal 3-18 against the spread in their 21 preseason contests.

While just the opposite is true for these three coaches as it's obvious that they put some effort into these preseason games. The Redskins' Mike Shanahan, Lions' Jim Schwartz and Steelers' Mike Tomlin are a combined 73-36 SU (67%) in the preseason.

Mike Shanahan of the Redskins is 47-29

Jim Schwartz has produced a 10-2 record in three years with Detroit.

Mike Tomlin has gone 16-5 in five preseason slates in Pittsburgh.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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08/04/2012 11:09 AM
As for totals we definitely have some strong trends to follow:

OVER TRENDS

Playing the over in these eight coaches preseason games have a combined 224-118 winning record (65%).

Chan Gailey, Bills: 12-6
Norv Turner, Chargers: 36-20
Tom Coughlin, Giants: 41-24
Rex Ryan, Jets: 8-3
Mike McCarthy, Packers: 19-5
Bill Belichick, Patriots: 43-25
Mike Shanahan, Redskins: 48-28
Gary Kubiak, Texans: 17-7

Plus we may have some value in betting the over in the early Dolphins preseason games - as the odds makers may not be aware that with Joe Philbin, now the Miami head coach - he was the former Green Bay offensive offensive coordinator and may bring the Packers wide-open preseason scoring style with him to Miami.

UNDER TRENDS

While just the opposite can be said for these coaches as the under is an impressive 50-24 (68%) in all their preseason games.

Romeo Crennel, Chiefs: 10-6
Mike Smith, Falcons: 10-6
Mike Mularkey, Jaguars: 6-2
John Harbaugh, Ravens: 11-5
Mike Tomlin, Steelers: 13-7

Plus make sure to keep an eye out on these two head coaches Mike Munchak of the Titans and Jim Harbaugh of the 49ers. The pair both posted 3-1 marks in their first preseason.
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08/04/2012 11:10 AM
QUARTERBACK ROTATIONS

Quarterback rotations, injuries, news and notes, weather conditions, and the playing time of key personnel all should be included when finalizing your preseason plays. Plus, look for deep veteran QB rotations as these will be playing against the other teams third and fourth-stringers on defense in the second half.

A good example of experienced depth at the quarterback position for this preseason are:

1) Buffalo with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tyler Thigpen, Vince Young, and Brad Smith
2) Chicago with Jay Cutler, Josh McCown, and Jason Campbell
3) Pittsburgh with Ben Roethlisberger, Byron Leftwich, and Charlie Batch

Just look at the rotations listed here and you will see that I mean.

Below I've listed this year's quarterback rotations as of Aug. 1

NFC EAST

Cowboys: Tony Romo, Kyle Orton, Stephen McGee, Rudy Carpenter
Eagles: Michael Vick, Mike Kafka, Trent Edwards, Nick Foles
Giants: Eli Manning, David Carr, Ryan Perriloux
Redskins: Robert Griffin, Rex Grossman, Kirk Cousins, Johnathan Crompton

NFC NORTH

Bears: Jay Cutler, Josh McCown, Jason Campbell, Matt Blanchard
Lions: Matthew Stafford, Shaun Hill, Kellen Moore, R.J. Archer
Packers: Aaron Rodgers, Graham Harrell, B.J. Coleman
Vikings: Christian Ponder, Joe Webb, Sage Rosenfels, McLeod Thompson

NFC SOUTH

Buccaneers: Josh Freeman, Dan Orlovsky, Brett Raitliff
Falcons: Matt Ryan, Chris Redman, John Parker Wilson, Dominique Davis
Panthers: Cam Newton, Jimmy Clausen, Derek Anderson
Saints: Drew Brees, Chase Daniel, Luke McCown, Sean Canfield

NFC WEST

Cardinals: Kevin Kolb, John Skelton, Ryan Lindley, Richard Bartel
49ers: Alex Smith, Colin Kaepernick, Josh Johnson, Scott Tolzien
Rams: Sam Bradford, Kellen Clemens, Tom Brandstater, Austin Davis
Seahawks: Matt Flynn, Tarvaris Jackson, Russell Wilson, Josh Portis

AFC EAST

Bills: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tyler Thigpen, Vince Young, Brad Smith
Dolphins: Matt Moore, David Garrard, Ryan Tannehill, Pat Devlin
Jets: Mark Sanchez, Tim Tebow, Greg McElroy, Matt Simms
Patriots: Tom Brady, Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett

AFC NORTH

Bengals: Andy Dalton, Bruce Gradkowski, Zac Robinson, Tyler Hanson
Browns: Colt McCoy, Brandon Weeden, Seneca Wallace, Thaddeus Lewis
Ravens: Joe Flacco, Tyrod Taylor, Curtis Painter, John Brantley
Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger, Byron Leftwich, Charlie Batch, Jerrod Johnson

AFC SOUTH

Colts: Andrew Luck, Drew Stanton, Chandler Harnish
Jaguars: Blaine Gabbert, Chad Henne, Jordan Palmer, Nathan Enderle
Texans: Matt Schaub, T.J. Yates, John Beck, Case Keenum
Titans: Matt Hasselbeck, Jake Locker, Rusty Smith, Nick Stephens

AFC WEST

Broncos: Peyton Manning, Caleb Hanie, Brock Osweiler, Adam Weber
Chargers: Philip Rivers, Charlie Whitehurst, Jarrett Lee
Chiefs: Matt Cassel, Brady Quinn, Ricky Stanzi, Alex Tanney
Raiders: Carson Palmer, Matt Leinart, Terelle Pryor, Kyle Caballero

So as you can see if you combine everything listed here - a nice profitable preseason is definitely possible - which will lead to a nice fat bankroll for the upcoming season.
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08/05/2012 01:49 PM
Hall of Fame Game betting preview: Cardinals vs. Saints

Hall of Fame Game: Arizona Cardinals vs. New Orleans Saints (-3, 37)

The 2012 NFL preseason kicks off in Canton, Ohio with the Hall of Fame Game. The New Orleans Saints, still stinging from the suspensions of “Bounty Gate” are putting the scandal behind them, starting with Sunday’s exhibition matchup versus Arizona.

Odds

Oddsmakers opened New Orleans at -2.5 and have since moved to a field goal with action on the Saints. The total originally opened as low as 34.5 points but has since been bet up to as high as 37.

Hall of Fame Game trends

Since 1995, Hall of Fame Game favorites are 22-17 SU with a 16-20-3 mark against the spread. In that same span, the Hall of Fame Game has posted a 23-16 over/under record. There was no HoF Game last season due to the NFL lockout.

Capping the QBs

Saints interim coach Joe Vitt has been tight lipped about how much his starters – namely his quarterbacks – will play in Sunday’s game. Behind Pro Bowl quarterback Drew Brees, who is expected to play sparingly, New Orleans is trying to iron out its No. 2 position between Chase Daniel and Luke McCown. Fourth stringer Sean Canfield is also expected to make an appearance Sunday.

Vitt said he wants to follow a similar QB rotation from the Saints’ 2007 Hall of Fame Game appearance versus the Pittsburgh Steelers, in which New Orleans lost 20-7 as a 3-point underdog. In that game, Brees attempted only six passes – completing one – while his three backups each attempted eight passes.

Daniel had some extra time with the Saints’ first-team offense this offseason while Brees did contract battle with the team’s brass. The Missouri product attempted only five passes last season, completing four of them for a total of 29 yards.

"I thought it was good for him to be in a position where he is the guy, he is running with the ones and having to exert himself and be the leader,'' Brees told the media of Daniel. ''I tell him that if you are not thinking about taking my job then you are thinking the wrong thing.''

Unlike New Orleans, Arizona doesn’t have a surefire starting quarterback. The Cardinals enter the 2012 campaign with one of the most heated QB battles of the preseason, weighing Kevin Kolb against John Skelton, who stepped in as the No. 1 in Week 9 after Kolb was injured last year.

Skelton was impressive, passing for 1,913, 11 touchdowns and 14 interceptions while helping lead the team to a 7-2 SU mark (6-3 ATS) in the final nine games of the season. Despite that effort, and a report that the Cardinals offense prefers Skelton, Kolb still sits atop the depth chart and will get the start for the Hall of Fame Game Sunday.

“Some of the guys mentioned it in the locker room," Skelton said of the supposed favoritism. "I don't know anything about that. I don't know where he got that from. From what it seems, all things are equal both in the locker room and on the field."

Kolb sat out practice this past week with a thigh contusion but head coach Ken Whisenhunt told reporters that he will be ready to start and that the team will follow a similar QB rotation as past preseasons. Last summer, Kolb threw just seven passes – connecting on four for 68 yards – in Arizona’s preseason opener. Skelton went 6 for 10 for 94 yards and a touchdown in the 24-18 win over the Oakland Raiders as a 3.5-point road underdog.

Replacement refs

With a labor dispute between the NFL and its officials stretching into the preseason, the league will use replacement referees for Sunday’s Hall of Fame Game.

Bettors are debating the impact of these second-string officials, unsure if it will mean more or less penalties. According to hulking NFL veteran official Ed Hochuli, replacement refs during the 2001 season threw roughly five flags per game – much fewer than the 12-14 tossed by regular officials.

Last season, the Saints were ninth in the league in fewest penalty yards per game with 48.3. The Cardinals were the sixth-most penalized team in terms of yardage in 2011, averaging 62.3 penalty yards per game. Could replacement officials miss some of those tough calls in the trenches, giving Arizona an advantage? We'll find out Sunday night.

New Orleans notes

-- The Saints will be without both starting cornerbacks for Sunday’s game. Jabari Greer underwent sports hernia surgery Thursday and Patrick Robinson is nursing an injured shoulder. Rookie receiver Nick Toon will also miss the game after hurting his foot in practice this week.

-- A giant billboard of suspended head coach Sean Peyton was put up in the Saints’ indoor practice facility with the words “Do Your Job” on it, the idea of owner Tom Benson. The slogan was what Peyton told his team and staff after being dealt a season-long ban due to the Saints’ bounty scandal. Peyton was cleared by the NFL to attend the Hall of Fame ceremony in Canton this weekend.

Arizona notes

-- The Cardinals will be short in the back field with running back Beanie Wells on the PUP list and young rusher Ryan William ruled out while recovering from a torn patella tendon injury last season. That leaves Arizona with Alphonso Smith, LaRod Stephens-Howling, William Powell and Thomas Clayton. Smith rushed for a total of 102 yards and one touchdown while Stephens-Howling posted 167 total yards on the ground in 2011.

-- Whisenhunt has posted two 0-4 SU preseason campaigns during his first five seasons calling the shots for the Cardinals and owns a 7-13 career win/loss mark in the tune-ups. That has parlayed itself into an 8-11-1 ATS count.
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08/05/2012 01:53 PM
HOF Betting Notes

August 4, 2012

Sunday's game between the Cardinals and Saints, although the first preseason contest of the season, is getting serious action according to Sportsbook.ag senior odds consultant Mike Pierce.

We have a big decision on both the side and total for the HOF game. We opened this game Saints -3 and on Thursday, we got some wiseguy action on the underdog, so we moved to the current number of -2.5. As of Saturday, over 77% of the money is on the spread backing the Saints, which appears to be the public's choice."

"Also, we're very long on the total too, which opened 35 and has jumped up to 37. And similar to the Saints, the betting trends show over 80% of the cash is backing the OVER on Sunday.

Expected Quarterback Rotation

Saints
Drew Brees
Chase Daniel
Luke McCown
Sean Canfield

Cardinals
Kevin Kolb
John Skelton
Ryan Lindley - Rookie (San Diego State)
Richard Bartel

Preseason Coaching Stats

Joe Vitt, New Orleans - None
Ken Whisenhunt, Arizona - 7-13 SU, 8-10 ATS 10-10 O/U

Preseason Results - Last Two Years

New Orleans

2011 (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U)

New Orleans (-2.5, 35.5) 24 vs. San Francisco 3
New Orleans (-2.5, 40.5) 14 at Houston 27
New Orleans (-4.5, 38) 40 at Oakland 20
New Orleans (-1, 36.5) 9 vs. Tennessee 32

2010 (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS, 4-0 O/U)

New Orleans (+1.5, 35) 24 at New England 27
New Orleans (-1.5, 41) 38 vs. Houston 20
New Orleans (-3, 44.5) 36 vs. San Diego 21
New Orelans (+7.5, 41) 24 at Tennessee 27

Arizona

2011 (2-2 SU, 2-1-1 ATS, 3-1 O/U)

Arizona (+3.5, 33) 24 at Oakland 18
Arizona (+5, 38.5) 20 at Green Bay 28
Arizona (+3, 41.5) 31 vs. San Diego 34
Arizona (-3, 40.5) 26 vs. Denver 7

2010 (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U)

Arizona (+2.5, 33) 19 vs. Houston 16
Arizona (+3.5, 37.5) 10 at Tennessee 24
Arizona (+3.5, 38) 14 at Chicago 9
Arizona (-4, 37) 20 vs. Washington 10

Hall of Fame Game History & Trends

Recent Trends:

-- Arizona has never played in a Hall of Fame contest.
-- New Orleans has gone 1-3 in HOF game appearances.
-- The margin of victory has been by more than three points in four of the last five HOF games.
-- There have been less than 30 combined points scored in three of the last five HOF games.

Hall of Fame Game History
Year Result
2011 Game Canceled due to Lockout
2010 Dallas 16, Cincinnati 7
2009 Tennessee 21, Buffalo 18
2008 Washington 30, Indianapolis 16
2007 Pittsburgh 20, New Orleans 7
2006 Oakland 16, Philadelphia 10
2005 Chicago 27, Miami 24
2004 Washington 20, Denver 17
2003 Kansas City 9, Green Bay 0
2002 N.Y. Giants 34, Houston 17
2001 St. Louis 17, Miami 10
2000 New England 20, San Francisco 0
1999 Cleveland 20, Dallas 17
1998 Tampa Bay 30, Pittsburgh 6
1997 Minnesota 28, Seattle 26
1996 Indianapolis 10, New Orleans 3
1995 Carolina 20, Jacksonville 14
1994 Atlanta 21, San Diego 17
1993 L.A. Raiders 19, Green Bay 3
1992 N.Y. Jets 41, Philadelphia 14
1991 Detroit 14, Denver 3
1990 Chicago 13, Cleveland 0
1989 Washington 31, Buffalo 6
1988 Cincinnati 14, L.A. Rams 7
1987 San Francisco 20, Kansas City 7
1986 New England 21, St. Louis 16
1985 N.Y. Giants 21, Houston 20
1984 Seattle 38, Tampa Bay 0
1983 Pittsburgh 27, New Orleans 14
1982 Minnesota 30, Baltimore 14
1981 Cleveland 24, Atlanta 10
1980 San Diego 0, Green Bay 0
1979 Oakland 20, Dallas 13
1978 Philadelphia 17, Miami 3
1977 Chicago 20, N.Y. Jets 6
1976 Denver 10, Detroit 7
1975 Washington 17, Cincinnati 9
1974 St. Louis 21, Buffalo 13
1973 San Francisco 20, New England 7
1972 Kansas City 23, N.Y. Giants 17
1971 L.A. Rams 17, Houston 6
1970 New Orleans 14, Minnesota 13
1969 Green Bay 38, Atlanta 24
1968 Chicago 30, Dallas 24
1967 Philadelphia 28, Cleveland 13
1965 Washington 20, Detroit 3
1964 Baltimore 48, Pittsburgh 17
1963 Pittsburgh 16, Cleveland 7
1962 St. Louis 17, N.Y. Giants 17


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08/05/2012 02:00 PM
Sunday, August 5

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Arizona - 8:00 PM ET Arizona +3 500

New Orleans - Over 34.5 500
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08/05/2012 02:02 PM
Cardinals-Saints open preseason Sunday night

ARIZONA CARDINALS

vs. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS


NFL Preseason Game
Hall of Fame Game - Canton, OH
Kickoff: Sunday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: New Orleans -3, Total: 35

The NFL returns for another year when the Cardinals and Saints open the preseason on Sunday night in the Hall of Fame Game in Canton, OH.

Early preseason games are usually decided by backup quarterbacks, as starting QBs rarely play for more than a couple of series. In terms of these two teams, Arizona’s backups have much more experience than Saints signal callers who carry clipboards all season watching Drew Brees take nearly every snap. Also, consider the Cardinals finished third among all NFL teams in preseason scoring last year, racking up 101 points in four games, 14 more points than the high-powered Saints offense did. With Cards second-stringer John Skelton looking to move past Kevin Kolb on the depth chart, expect him to shine brightest on Sunday and lead underdog ARIZONA to victory.

Although Kolb suffered a right thigh contusion in Monday’s practice, he is expected to start under center on Sunday night. Kolb played just two series in the 2011 preseason opener, but each of the other three Cards QBs threw touchdown passes. Two of those signal-callers are back again this year, Skelton and Richard Bartel. Skelton logged eight games last season, throwing for 1,913 yards, 11 TD and 14 INT. He threw for more than 220 yards in six of those contests, helping his Cardinals team to a 6-2 mark in the eight games he appeared in. Bartel finished the season 10-of-22 for 86 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, getting the majority of his action against the excellent 49ers defense. Arizona also has Ryan Lindley, a rookie from San Diego State, who is listed fourth on the QB depth chart. In addition to having WR Larry Fitzgerald pull down passes, the Cardinals also added rookie Michael Floyd to start opposite the star receiver. Floyd expects to get significant playing time in his NFL debut, while TE Todd Heap, WR Andre Roberts and WR Early Doucet provide reliable veteran targets for these quarterbacks.

New Orleans made headlines for all the wrong reasons in the offseason as it was discovered coaches and players paid defensive players bounties for intentionally hurting opposing players for several years. As a result, Saints head coach Sean Payton and star LB Jonathan Vilma were both suspended by the NFL for the entire 2012 season. Although interim head coach Joe Vitt isn’t going to tinker with the offensive system much, there will be an adjustment period here. Brees played three series in the 2011 preseason opener, and is not likely to surpass that in the Hall of Fame Game. His backups are Chase Daniel (8 career pass attempts), former Jaguars QB Luke McCown (0 TD, 4 INT in past 4 seasons) and Sean Canfield who has never appeared in an NFL regular-season game. Daniel got the bulk of playing time in the 2011 preseason opener, going 13-of-21 for 129 yards, 0 TD and 0 INT. The Saints have plenty of weapons in the passing game, most notably WR Marques Colston, TE Jimmy Graham and RB Darren Sproles. In terms of backups, Adrian Arrington and rookie Nick Toon could be the go-to receivers in this game.

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08/09/2012 01:24 PM
What bettors need to know: Thursday's NFL preseason action

NFL betting got underway this past weekend with the Hall of Fame Game. Now, football bettors get their first night of preseason profits with six games on the go Thursday.

Here’s a quick look at each of those matchups and their odds and trends:

Washington Redskins at Buffalo Bills (+2.5, 35)

The Redskins debut rookie QB Robert Griffin III, who will get between 12 and 20 snaps in Week 1. Washington head coach Mike Shanahan is notorious for putting weight into these tune-up tilts and owns a career 42-32-2 ATS mark in the preseason, including a 5-2 ATS record in his first two preseasons with the Skins.

Buffalo head coach Chan Gailey says his starters will only get a few series Thursday, turning things over to backup QB Vince Young. Starter Ryan Fitzpatrick said the offense will be focused on improving the rushing game, which could eat up clock and favor the under 35 points.

New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots (-3, 38)

These teams held a joint practice this week, so expect both sides to have notes. Bill Belichick sat Tom Brady in Week 1 of the preseason last year and will limit his star QB Thursday. Not only does Belichick want a better look at backups Ryan Mallet and Brian Hoyer, but he’s working with scraps on the offensive line.

The Saints won the Hall of Fame Game and will likely give Drew Brees and the starters a longer leash in Week 1. Receiver Devery Henderson and RB Mark Ingram sat out the practice with the Pats but are expected to see more action Thursday.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles (pick, 34)

Eagles head coach Andy Reid is expected to be on sidelines for Thursday's game following the funeral for his son this week. Philadelphia has dedicated this season to Garrett Reid and will likely come out strong for their coach Thursday.

Pittsburgh has been one of the better preseason bets under Mike Tomlin, posting a 16-5 SU and 13-8 ATS record in the exhibition schedule. The Steelers will give starts to two rookie offensive linemen Thursday, throwing David DeCastro and Mike Adams into the fire. Tomlin will play his starting units no more than two series.

Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons (-1.5, 34)

The Ravens are one of the best under bets in Week 1 of the preseason, posting a 3-12 over/under count in the exhibition opener since 1995. Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh will use his starters, namely QB Joe Flacco, sparingly and will not risk putting injured players into action.

The Falcons could give their starters a full quarter’s worth of work and more Thursday. Head coach Mike Smith hadn’t decided on a snap count or anything but told the media his starters could play into the second quarter versus the Ravens.

Green Bay Packers at San Diego Chargers (-1, 37.5)

The Packers will only let QB Aaron Rodgers roll out one series or less before turning the offense over to the backups. A big part of that decision is the uncertainty surrounding Herb Taylor at left tackle. Backups Graham Harrell and B.J. Coleman could be in for a long night if Taylor fails on the line.

The Chargers are one of the better over plays during Week 1 of the preseason, boasting an 11-5 over/under count in Week 1 since 1995. The Bolts won’t have backup QB Charlie Whitehurst for Thursday, leaving the bulk of the passing duties behind Philip Rivers to Kevin O'Connell and undrafted rookie Jarrett Lee.

Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears (-3, 34.5)

Denver happens to be one of the best Week 1 preseason plays in the NFL, with a stellar 11-4-1 ATS mark in their exhibition openers since 1995. Peyton Manning makes his debut in Broncos blue and orange, but will only get 10-12 plays Thursday.

The Bears have depth at QB and RB with Jason Campbell an upgrade under center and Michael Bush a threat behind Matt Forte. Chicago will not have veteran LB Brian Urlacher, who is dealing with personal issues.
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08/09/2012 01:25 PM
Best and worst NFL preseason Week 1 bets

The NFL preseason can make about as much sense as an episode of Lost. Things that should be never are. And players you’ve never heard of can quickly become your all-time faves.

Preseason trends are just as volatile. The tune-up rosters are different, not only year-to-year, but week-to-week as players are cut and added. However, there are some trends and records that jump out during Week 1 of the preseason and can’t be ignored.

Here’s a look at the best and worst teams against the spread in Week 1 of the NFL preseason.

Records from Week 1 of the preseason since 1995.

Best preseason Week 1 bets

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-6 SU, 11-5 ATS)

The Bucs are straight cash in their preseason opener, including covering in Week 1 of the preseason the past two summers. Tampa Bay opens the 2012 preseason slate at Miami as a 2.5-point underdog Friday.

Denver Broncos (9-7 SU, 11-4-1 ATS)

The Broncos are a much different beast than 2011, especially with Peyton Manning under center. Thursday’s game against the Bears (-3) is his first action since playing in the Pro Bowl on Jan. 30, 2011. Head coach John Fox says his starters will play the majority of the first quarter.

Tennessee Titans (10-6 SU, 10-6 ATS)

The Titans have a nice QB battle on their hands heading into Week 1 of the preseason with second-year arm Jake Locker fighting veteran Matt Hasselbeck for the starting job. That motivation should provide good value in Tennessee, which is 3-point underdog visiting Hasselbeck’s former team, the Seattle Seahawks, Saturday.

Worst preseason Week 1 bets

Dallas Cowboys (4-12 SU, 3-13 ATS)

It’s tough to find value in the Cowboys during the regular season, but damn near impossible during the exhibition slate. Dallas has been ravaged by injuries this offseason with 17 different players missing practice. America’s Team is a 1.5-point underdog visiting the Raiders Monday.

Detroit Lions (9-7 SU, 4-9-3 ATS)

For anyone who has loyally bet the NFL preseason, this one should catch you off guard. Detroit has provided preseason profits over the past four years, going a combined 12-3-1 ATS in the preseason since 2008. But getting the motor started in Week 1 is an issue. The Lions face the Browns as 3-point home faves Friday.

Philadelphia Eagles (5-10 SU, 4-10-1 ATS)

Eagles head coach Andy Reid never cared about the team’s preseason success in the past and understandably won’t be too concerned about it in 2012 after the death of his son last week. Reid returned to camp following the funeral and is expected to be on the sidelines when Philadelphia hosts the Steelers as a pick’em Thursday. "It will be therapy for Andy,” Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie told reporters.
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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