cnotes Posts:26739 Followers:33
08/12/2012 11:43 AM

What bettors need to know: Rams at Colts

St. Louis Rams at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5, 34)

Most eyes will be on Colts quarterback Andrew Luck, the top overall pick in April’s draft. The Stanford standout is expected to be given 20 to 25 plays in the preseason opener, according to offensive coordinator Bruce Arians.

Luck replaces Peyton Manning in Indianapolis and his preseason NFL debut is the main reason NFL Network has decided to televise the game nationally.

The Rams went 4-0 in the preseason last year before a 2-14 regular season. New head coach Jeff Fisher takes the warm-up games seriously, especially on the defensive side of the ball.

“What you want to do through the preseason is not give up a lot of points, keep the penalties down – keep them way down – protect the football, block and tackle and execute and let the score take care of itself,” Fisher said earlier this week.

He also announced that many of his starters, including running back Steven Jackson and quarterback Sam Bradford, will only partake in “12 to 20 plays” on Sunday.




NFL Preseason Week 1 Dunkel

St. Louis at Indianapolis
Andrew Luck and the Colts make their preseason debut tonight. St. Louis is the pick (Pick) according to Dunkel, which has the Rams favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis. Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, AUGUST 12

Game 279-280: St. Louis at Indianapolis (1:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 121.202; Indianapolis 115.403
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 6; 32
Vegas Line: Pick; 34 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis; Under


MONDAY, AUGUST 13

Game 281-282: Dallas at Oakland (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 119.351; Oakland 123.163
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 4; 38
Vegas Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 35
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-1 1/2); Over




NFL Preseason Betting Trends for Sunday, August 12, 2012

St. Louis at Indianapolis, 1:30 ET NFL
St. Louis: 6-1 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
Indianapolis: 27-13 Over as an underdog


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NFL Preseason Betting Trends for Monday, August 13, 2012

Dallas at Oakland, 8:00 ET ESPN
Dallas: 10-19 ATS vs. AFC West opponents
Oakland: 4-0 Over in home games

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:26739 Followers:33
08/12/2012 11:45 AM

Luck makes Colts debut Sunday vs. Rams

ST. LOUIS RAMS

at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS


NFL Preseason Game
Kickoff: Sunday, 1:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Indianapolis -1½, Total: 34

The Andrew Luck era begins in Indianapolis when the Colts kick off their preseason Sunday night against the Rams.

Each of these franchises is in rebuilding mode, coming off 2-14 seasons. However, each club also has a No. 1 overall pick at quarterback, in Luck and Sam Bradford entering his third season for St. Louis. The Colts plan on testing their star rookie early and playing him for nearly the entire first half. This should give Indy a huge advantage, especially on its home turf. The Rams have been a tremendous preseason team recently with seven straight victories, including a 33-10 blowout of the Colts, but they have too many holes on both sides of the ball under new head coach Jeff Fisher. The pick here is INDIANAPOLIS to win at home.

Luck had a brilliant career at Stanford, completing 67 percent of his passes for 9,430 yards, 82 TD and just 22 INT. Luck’s backup is 28-year-old Drew Stanton who spent his entire NFL career with the Lions. Stanton did not play at all in 2011, but was decent in 2010, posting a 78.4 QB rating. He was 69-for-119 (58%) for 780 yards, with 4 TD and 3 INT. That was a huge improvement from his dreadful 2009 campaign when he was 26-of-51 for 259 yards, 0 TD and 6 INT, which equals a 26.1 rating. Third-string QB, Northern Illinois rookie Chandler Harnish, will direct the fourth quarter. Harnish capped off a stellar career at NIU last year by throwing for 3,216 yards and 28 TD, while adding 1,379 yards on the ground with 11 touchdowns. Other new faces that should see significant time for Indianapolis on Sunday are free-agent signings WR Donnie Avery, RB Mewelde Moore and RB Deji Karim, as well as rookie tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. This game will also be the first look at the Colts’ new 3-4 defense under new head coach Chuck Pagano. Both Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are making the switch from defensive end to outside linebacker in this defense.

Bradford has struggled in his first two NFL seasons, and has still not fully recovered from a high ankle sprain suffered last October. He will start on Sunday, but it would be surprising to see him last more than two series, especially considering he took 36 sacks in just 10 games in 2011. Bradford has some experienced backups in A.J. Feeley and Kellen Clemens, who have logged 11 and seven NFL seasons, respectively. Feeley played five games (three starts) last season, completing 53-of-97 passes (55%) for 548 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT. Clemens also started three games for St. Louis last season, connecting on 48-of-91 passes (53%) for 546 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT. Tom Brandstater (0-for-2 passing in NFL career) is fourth on the QB depth chart and should see time in the fourth quarter. The good thing for these quarterbacks is that all the wide receivers are battling for a starting position, and all have plenty of incentive to impress their coaches. Rookies Brian Quick and Chris Givens are pushing returning WRs Brandon Gibson, Danny Amendola, Greg Salas and Danario Alexander, as well as newcomer Steve Smith. Fisher will likely have seven new starters on defense this season including talented rookies DL Michael Brockers and CB Janoris Jenkins.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:26739 Followers:33
08/12/2012 11:50 AM

Slam the Rams' 'under'

August 10, 2012

As I mentioned last week while touting an ‘over’ play on the Bears, my second-favorite NFL season win total is ‘under’ six for the Rams.

St. Louis is coming off of a dreadful 10-38 stretch during Steve Spagnuolo’s tenure. Going back even further, there was a 2-10 run under interim coach Jim Haslett that was preceded by an 11-25 record under Scott Linehan. By my math, this six-year span of nothing but scrub squads has combined for a pathetic 23-73 record.

Ouch!

That’s painful just to think about.

The good news is that former Titans head coach Jeff Fisher has been hired to right the ship. Fisher’s not Vince Lombardi, but he’s a major upgrade from Spagnuolo and Linehan.

We’ll stick with the few positives for now and I believe that starts with the additions at cornerback. Cortland Finnegan, signed in free agency, is a solid veteran with 14 career interceptions. The former Titan has been to the Pro-Bowl before and is familiar with Fisher’s system.

The Rams got great value in the second round when they drafted Janoris Jenkins, who became the first Florida Gator to start at CB from day one as a true freshman since the late/great Jarvis Williams did so in the 1980s. Jenkins was an integral part of UF’s national-championship team in 2008.

Jenkins is a mid-first-round talent, but his dismissal from Florida raised red flags. He was arrested twice for possession of misdemeanor amounts of weed in Gainesville during the off-season after Urban Meyer resigned and Will Muschamp became head coach.

With excellent talent at the cover-corner spots, you would think life will become easier for one of the league’s best pass rushers who is still getting better. I’m talking about Chris Long, who had 13 sacks last season.

There’s also optimism at two other d-line spots. Robert Quinn had five sacks as a rookie after missing all of 2010 while suspended at North Carolina. The Rams spent their first-round pick on LSU defensive tackle Michael Brockers, who is expected to start immediately.

Fisher will also like his middle linebacker, James Laurinaitis, who had a team-high 142 tackles, nine tackles for losses, three sacks, seven passes broken up and a pair of interceptions last year.

The previous few paragraphs will just about do it for half-glass-full opinions.

The organization believes it has its franchise quarterback in third-year signal caller Sam Bradford. I won’t say anything to derail that notion, but there are concerns.

For starters, regardless of how good a player is in any sport, at some point you have to enjoy success to keep your confidence. Going back to Bradford’s senior year at Oklahoma when he got hurt in the opener against BYU and then went out again early in a game against Texas, Bradford’s last three seasons have been rough.

He barely touched the field in a frustrating 2009 in Norman. Then as a rookie in 2010, Bradford had an 18/15 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In 2011, Bradford struggled with injuries to his ankle and elbow, often playing at far less than 100-percent health-wise. He completed only 53.5 percent of his throws with a 6/6 TD-INT ratio.

I don’t point out those numbers to bash Bradford. I think he’s been playing behind a garbage offensive line with mediocre receivers. I believe he’s an extremely accurate passer when he gets time and has targets that are open, but how often will that be the case in 2012?

The Rams did take a WR in the second round, but I have to plead ignorance on this one. I have no clue if Brian Quick from out of Appalachian St. was worthy of being the 33rd selection in the NFL Draft or not. Only time will tell.

I know Danny Amendola is a quality NFL wideout, but is he talented enough to be your No. 1 target? Will he be the same after suffering that grotesque elbow injury last year?

Stephen Jackson has been a stud RB for a long time, but how much does he have left in the tank? There are a lot of miles on those legs. And, once again, he’ll be operating behind a terrible offensive line.

When suggesting an ‘under’ on a season win total, I like to look at the schedule and figure a best-case scenario. In this instance, I think the Rams’ ceiling is 6-10 IF everything falls right.

That would entail Bradford staying healthy for 16 games, Quick emerging as an outstanding rookie WR, Amendola playing extremely well, rookie RB Isiah Pead developing as a nice compliment to Jackson and major improvement from the offensive line.

Then on the other side of the ball, you need a career year from Long. You need Jenkins and Brockers producing at a high level as rookies, while Quinn enjoys a breakout campaign in his second season.

Are all those things going to materialize? Of course not!

There are three road games that are guaranteed losses – at Detroit, at Chicago and at San Francisco. There are two more road games that are unlikely victories and also fall into difficult spots because of the weather conditions – at Miami in mid-October (when it feels like mid-August everywhere else) and at Buffalo on Dec. 9 when snow and ice could be a factor for an indoor team like St. Louis.

The Rams will almost certainly be underdogs in their three other road games – at Arizona, at Tampa Bay and at Seattle. How many road wins will they get? Let’s be generous and give them one and it’ll come either at Arizona or at Tampa Bay.

St. Louis was a double-digit home underdog twice last year and I see two more similar situations this season when Green Bay and New England come to the Edward Jones Dome in back-to-back weeks. Although we should note that the Rams drilled the Saints as 13-point home ‘dogs last year, we’ll confidently mark them with L’s for the visits from the Packers and Patriots.

Another healthy home ‘dog spot will be on Dec. 2 when the 49ers come to town.

We’re left with five home games: vs. Washington, vs. Seattle, vs. Arizona, vs. the Jets and vs. Minnesota. The Rams will certainly have a decent shot in four of those contests, but I think the Jets win at St. Louis.

I’ll give them three wins at home against the Seahawks (being generous here – again), Cardinals and Vikings. (I think RG3 and the ‘Skins beat the Rams.)

So there you have it. The Rams will go 4-12 and the ‘under’ will be a winner.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:26739 Followers:33
08/12/2012 12:07 PM

NFL

Sunday, August 12

Game Score Status Pick Amount

St. Louis - 1:30 PM ET Indianapolis +0 500

Indianapolis - Over 34 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:26739 Followers:33
08/13/2012 07:06 PM

What bettors need to know: Cowboys at Raiders

Dallas Cowboys at Oakland Raiders (-1, 34.5)

Reggie McKenzie’s first move was hiring Dennis Allen as the Raiders new head coach. Allen, who was the defensive coordinator with Denver last year, inherits a deep but undisciplined front line, one that surrendered a whopping 5.1 yards per rush last season for new defensive coordinator Jason Tarver. Oakland is set on improving and tinkering with its rush defense this preseason.

With Taiwan Jones and Mike Goodson out with injuries, halfback Lonyae Miller has seen an increase in snaps this training camp. Expect Miller to take the majority of the carries on Monday night.

First-string quarterback Carson Palmer and No. 1 running back Darren McFadden are likely to see limited time in the preseason opener. New backup quarterback Matt Leinart should see a significant amount of snaps.

The Cowboys are plagued with injuries.

David Arkin had never snapped the ball for the Dallas Cowboys before getting to training camp two weeks ago but could be snapping for Tony Romo on Monday.

Starting center Phil Costa missed practice Saturday because of a lower back injury and is doubtful against the Raiders. Wide receiver Dez Bryant left practice early Saturday because of hamstring tightness and will be a game-time decision.

Rookie cornerback Morris Claiborne returned to practice Saturday after missing a week with a sprained left knee. He isn't expected to play against the Raiders.

Starters like Romo are only likely to play one series or perhaps up to one quarter.




NFL Preseason Week 1 Dunkel

MONDAY, AUGUST 13

Game 281-282: Dallas at Oakland (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 119.351; Oakland 123.163
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 4; 38
Vegas Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 35
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-1 1/2); Over




NFL Preseason Betting Trends for Monday, August 13, 2012

Dallas at Oakland, 8:00 ET ESPN
Dallas: 10-19 ATS vs. AFC West opponents
Oakland: 4-0 Over in home games

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:26739 Followers:33
08/13/2012 07:14 PM

Cowboys vs. Raiders

August 13, 2012

Sure, it's preseason, but all of this matters.

The Olympics and the NBA's top Summer saga shared headlines with the NFL's return, occasionally accomplishing the impossible in overshadowing America's pastime in August. With both events complete, look for everyone to flock to this Monday night game between two of the country's most polarizing teams, the Cowboys and Raiders.

For Oakland, 2012 offers an opportunity to start fresh, not only with a new regime, but also with rental quarterback Carson Palmer getting an opportunity to go through a training camp. He's out to become consistent by going the conventional route in becoming an organization's trusted signal caller, so from that standpoint, developing continuity after last season's flashes of brilliance and ineptitude is key.

So far, that's been difficult.

Issues on the offensive line and with top receiver Denarius Moore have forced Palmer to try and find a rhythm with lesser options under circumstances that intrude on preparation. Darius Heyward-Bey, Jacoby Ford and rookies Juron Criner and Rod Streater will have to benefit, but in this first live run, won't get to see much of Palmer. Look for Oakland to be cautious and utilize this opportunity to take long looks at Matt Leinart and Terrelle Pryor.

Pryor, the Ohio State standout who withdrew from school after allegations of improper benefits surfaced, was a supplemental pick last June and is also looking forward to a conventional exhibition season. He's expected to see the majority of second-half snaps prior to giving way to the latest Ivy League quarterback hoping to express, Brown's Kyle Newhall-Caballero.

Princeton alum Jason Garrett used to live for the preseason in his playing days since it often led to extended action, so look for him to turn to his backups quickly, and not for sentimental reasons. The head coach is certain to be cautious with Tony Romo, expected to get a single series due to Dallas' offensive line issues. Center Phil Costa will miss the game to rest an ailing back, while likely starters Derrick Dockery and Mackenzy Bernadeau have been limited in practices leading up to this one. Dez Bryant has a hamstring issue that will likely earn him the night off. Miles Austin has also had hammy issues in August, so the Cowboys have gotten little work done with what's expected to be the first-string passing game.

If you're rooting for Dallas, the key will be how well Kyle Orton collaborates with young receivers Dwayne Harris, Cole Beasley, Kevin Ogletree and Andre Holmes. Stephen McGee and Rudy Carpenter are battling for the No. 3 job and will get their crack come second half, so if you're counting on the Cowboys to notch a road win, you're banking on backups to really perform in a hostile atmosphere.

Help from the running game will have to come from those vying to make the team behind DeMarco Murray and Felix Jones, who are only expected to do limited work. Ed Wesley and Javarris Williams will take the snaps they would've split with Lance Dunbar and Philip Tanner come second second half.

The Raiders will field similar inexperience since Darren McFadden's primary backups, Taiwan Jones (hamstring) and Mike Goodson (neck) will both miss the contest. Lonyae Miller, who started on Dallas' practice squad and has done the same with Oakland, will be the primary back for the home team.

Jon Gruden, calling the game for ESPN, will be making his first trip back to the Oakland Coliseum (now O.co) since cutting ties with the organization. Considering it's also the first Raiders preseason game since Al Davis passed away last October, count on hearing a few stories about the team's revolutionary former owner.

Dennis Allen, the first defense-oriented coach to take the helm in Oakland since John Madden, will have many things scripted for his first dry run. Garrett went 2-2 in his first preseason in 2011, with the Cowboys going 1-3 against the spread.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:26739 Followers:33
08/13/2012 07:24 PM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

08/12/12 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1000 Detail

08/11/12 3-­1-­0 75.00% +­950 Detail

08/10/12 4-­6-­2 40.00% -­1300 Detail

08/09/12 9-­1-­0 90.00% +­3950 Detail

08/05/12 0-­2-­0 0.00% -­1100 Detail

Totals 18-­10-­2 64.29% +3500

Monday, August 13

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Dallas - 8:00 PM ET Oakland -1.5 500

Oakland - Under 34 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:26739 Followers:33
08/15/2012 11:36 PM

NFLX
Dunkel

Week 2

Cincinnati at Atlanta
The Falcons look to bounce back from a 31-17 loss last week against Baltimore as they host Cincinnati on Thursday. Atlanta is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Falcons favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, AUGUST 16

Game 401-402: Cincinnati at Atlanta (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 114.628; Atlanta 120.505
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 6; 35
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 4; 38
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4); Under

Game 403-404: Cleveland at Green Bay (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 121.403; Green Bay 121.399
Dunkel Line: Even; 44
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+3); Over

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:26739 Followers:33
08/15/2012 11:38 PM

NFLX
Long Sheet

Week 2

Thursday, August 16

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (1 - 0) at ATLANTA (0 - 1) - 8/16/2012, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CLEVELAND (1 - 0) at GREEN BAY (0 - 1) - 8/16/2012, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 2-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 2-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:26739 Followers:33
08/15/2012 11:39 PM

NFLX
Short Sheet

Week 2

Thursday, August 16, 2012

Cincinnati at Atlanta, 8:00 ET FOX
Cincinnati: 9-21 ATS off an ATS win
Atlanta: 12-1 ATS off a loss by 14+ points

Cleveland at Green Bay, 8:00 ET
Cleveland: 1-5 ATS off a non-conference game
Green Bay: 30-12 Over as a favorite

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: