steve_janus Posts:310 Followers:5
On 07/26/2012 11:38 AM in Cappers

MLB FREE PICK: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+110)

NY Mets vs. Arizona, 07/26/2012 21:40
Point Spread: -1½/+110 Arizona

MLB FREE PICK: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+110)

This is a great spot to jump on the Diamondbacks to win by at least two runs. While Arizona lost last night at home to the Rockies, they are 7-3 in their last 10 games overall. Each of those 7 wins have come by at least 2 runs, which is a big reason why I feel comfortable playing the run line.

While the Diamondbacks come in playing some solid baseball, the Mets have lost 12 of their last 13 games, including six straight home games. They are now 11.5 games behind Washington in the NL East and 7 games out of a wild card spot. I have a hard time seeing this team getting motivated to play after traveling cross country.

I also think Arizona has a huge advantage on the mound. The Diamondbacks will send out rookie sensation Wade Miley, who is 11-5 with a 3.02 ERA in 16 starts and three relief appearances. Miley has been at his best at Chase Field, where he is 6-2 with a 2.32 ERA in 8 starts.

The Mets will counter with 2010 first round pick Matt Harvey. While Harvey has the potential to be an ace in the big leagues, he has a long ways to go. He was just 7-5 with a 3.68 ERA in Triple-A. I fully expect him to struggle in hitter-friendly Chase Field tonight.

Arizona is 33-15 in their last 48 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game, 20-7 in their last 27 home games, and a perfect 9-0 in Miley's last 9 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. BET THE DIAMONDBACKS!

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