finance Posts:9077 Followers:230
On 06/22/2012 12:17 PM in MLB

Oswalt's First start and he's a -200????

I know they're playing the sucky Rockies at home, but this guy hasn't pitched since October and it's not like the Rockies can't score....I could see passing but I don't know how you could lay that kind of juice in this situation...

sure seems like pretty decent value on the Rox tonight....what does everyone think?

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finance Posts:9077 Followers:230
06/22/2012 12:21 PM

I have to admit that Andy Pettitte has been better than I thought he would be after his time off, but he struggled in his first game back....6-2 loss to Seattle...

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bobalou Posts:5271 Followers:147
06/22/2012 01:11 PM

Gotta wonder.... I always have my doubts
when retired players all the sudden want to return.

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jimmythegreek Posts:12196 Followers:390
06/22/2012 01:13 PM

I have the Rocks small at a +175 doogie. Perhaps not too many flashes of offense on the road, even against Philadelphia which is a hitters park as well in Citizens Bank. However you have a team entering another hitter friendly ballpark in Arlington, and given this will be Oswalt's first start, the fact remains that he may not come out as sharp making his debut once again relatively late near the ASB. He's way overpriced here by at least 50 cents.

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yanakt Posts:4 Followers:0
06/22/2012 01:19 PM

Are you taking the Rockies strictly because of the odds, or are you confident that they can outscore the Rangers?

btb Posts:2271 Followers:163
06/22/2012 01:25 PM

Saw some highlights of him pitching..looks like he is getting alot of ground ball outs. However if I was going to bet this one which I am not.. I would take a bite of the dog think there is some definite value there

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finance Posts:9077 Followers:230
06/22/2012 01:26 PM

Hey man welcome to the forum! The short answer from me is that in wagering it's all about finding value....just like JTG mentioned above they have (in our opinion anyway) Oswalt significantly overvalued at -200...the Rangers are obviously a much better team than the Rockies and deserve to be favored, but the +$$ on the Rockies is where the value that certainly doesn't mean they win the game but in our opinion they win more often than the large line would indicate, all things considered...

Over a long period of time and a whole lot of plays, if you find the value consistently enough then you should win at a better rate than the lines would indicate and therefore have a profitable season....

Hopefully that makes sense and that's the way I see it - anyone else please chime in......

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  • 06/22/2012 01:47 PM

    That's a very good point. I've won 62% of my picks in June...and the money is anywhere from up a little to down a little ever week. Not getting my money on the right games or the right value.

    Thanks for your response.

finance Posts:9077 Followers:230
06/23/2012 08:51 AM

Texas won but we had the right idea...Oswalt was far from sharp but put in a gutty performance...hard to envision a team only scoring one run with 12 hits but the Rockies managed it....

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marksmoneymakers Posts:26308 Followers:141
06/23/2012 10:02 AM

Not too bad for the first start since the PHillies. I have always like him and did not like when the phils let him go. I am rooting for him. A win is a win. I know he is happy.