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Rounding the bases: This week's best MLB betting trends
By JASON LOGAN
Every week, we update you on who's hot, who's not and situational betting spots in Major League Baseball (All records and statistics through Saturday):
Hot team: New York Yankees
THIS SEASON: 39-25 (5.37 units)
LAST WEEK: 6-0
THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: Home vs. Atlanta, Road vs. New York Mets
The Yankees extended their winning streak to eight games with some extra-inning dramatics against the Washington Nationals Saturday night, getting a two-run double from Mark Teixeira in the top of the 14th to win 5-3. New York has stormed through interleague play, rolling over the Mets, Braves and Nationals thanks to a pitching staff that posted a 2.12 ERA over the past week.
Cold team: Seattle Mariners
THIS SEASON: 28-39 (-4.15 units)
LAST WEEK: 1-6
THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: Road vs. Arizona, Road vs. San Diego
The Mariners snapped a six-game slide with a 7-4 victory over San Francisco Saturday, just their second win over a National League team during this current frame of interleague matchups. Seattle was outscored 32-16 during that six-game skid and hit just .224 BA over the past seven days. The M’s, who have never finished with a record below.500 versus the NL over the last 12 seasons, are now 5-6 against the Senior Circuit heading into two interleague road series.
Over team: Houston Astros
O/U THIS SEASON: 39-25-1
O/U LAST WEEK: 6-1
THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: Home vs. Kansas City, Home vs. Cleveland
The Astros are quickly becoming the best over play in all of baseball, sitting behind the Mets and Phillies in the over/under count. Houston hemorrhaged runs last week, allowing 52 runners across home plate while posting a collective 7.60 ERA – worst in the majors. The Astros bats did little to help out Over backers, hitting just .209 over that span, but did manage to score 11 runs in a win over the White Sox.
Under team: Boston Red Sox
O/U THIS SEASON: 35-29-1
O/U LAST WEEK: 1-6
THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE: Home vs. Miami, Home vs. Atlanta
Interleague action has left the BoSox’s bats frozen, managing just over three runs per game in the last seven outings. Things got so bad for the Red Sox offense, they were actually outgunned by a Cubs lineup that ranks near the basement in almost every offensive statistic. Boston was hitting .219 over the last seven days and, while those feeble bats can’t keep the Red Sox out of the AL East basement, they’ve been an ATM for Under bettors.
MLB bettors eye over trend with Cain following perfection
By JASON LOGAN
San Francisco Giants starter Matt Cain toes the rubber for the first time since tossing the 22nd perfect game in MLB history this past Wednesday.
Cain, who stifled the Houston Astros in a 10-0 win, faces the Los Angeles Angels in interleague play Monday, riding a seven-start winning streak and a slim 2.62 career ERA versus the American League. The right-hander not only faces Albert Pujols and a dangerous L.A. lineup but he also tries to avoid the letdown which has plagued pitchers coming off no-hitters and perfect games.
Since 1999, there have been 31 no-hitters/perfect games (not including Cain's), most recently the Seattle Mariners’ collective no-hitter versus the Los Angeles Dodgers on June 8. Games involving a starting pitcher coming off one of those accomplishments have gone 19-11-1 over/under - 61 percent to the Over.
Cain’s perfect game was the seventh since 1999 and the second of the 2012 MLB season. Chicago White Sox pitcher Phillip Humber was perfect against the Seattle Mariners on April 21, 2012, but was hammered for nine runs over five innings in his following start – a 10-3 loss to the Boston Red Sox which topped the 8-run number. The six previous perfect-game pitchers have combined for a 3-2-1 over/under mark in their subsequent start.
Cain and the Giants are -108 road favorites versus the Angels Monday. The total is set at 7 runs.
When the knuckleball is working, it’s untouchable. And right now, the knuckler is working for Dickey. The Mets right-hander has won five consecutive starts and hasn’t tasted defeat since April 18 – a string of 10 starts. The team’s appeal on Dickey’s controversial one-hitter wasn’t accepted by the league but the pitcher really didn’t want a no-hitter that way. Dickey has struck out 50 batters over the past five outings.
Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants (8-2, 2.18 ERA)
Cain is coming off just 22nd perfect game in MLB history, shutting the door on the Astros this past Wednesday. He’s 7-0 in his last seven starts and hasn’t allowed an earned run in his last 16 innings of work. The righty has struck out 23 batters in that span.
J.A. Happ, Houston Astros (4-7, 5.33 ERA)
The Astors staff was been terrible lately and Happ is one of the biggest reasons why. He’s dropped four straight starts, including serving up 12 runs in his last two outings, and lugs a 7.17 ERA over his last five efforts. Happ has given up three home runs in his last two outings and has watched 11 balls soar over the outfield fence in his last 10 appearances.
Henderson Alvarez, Toronto Blue Jays (3-6, 3.87 ERA)
The Blue Jays are running out of fingers to plug the dam with. They’ve had three starters hit the DL this week and turn to Alvarez to shoulder the load Monday. The right-hander hasn’t won since May 10, going 0-4 in his last six outings. He got rocked for three home runs versus Washington in his last start and has allowed at least one dinger in 11 of his 13 outings this season – 16 in total.
Monday's betting tips: Hamilton expected back with Rangers
The battle of Ohio could be a soggy one as thunderstorms roll into Cleveland. The forecast at Progressive Field is calling for 27 percent chance of rain and temperatures in the mid 80s.
MLB: New York Yankees – The Bronx Bombers needed extra innings to extend their winning streak to eight games Saturday, and picked up win No. 9 Sunday afternoon. New York welcomes Atlanta to Yankee Stadium Monday. It’s won its last five meetings with the Braves.
Euro: Spain – The defending world and Euro champs haven’t lost in seven matches, including a draw with Italy and a 4-0 win over Ireland in the first two games of the 2012 championship. Their last loss came to England, 1-0, in a friendly on Nov. 12, 2011.
MLB: Minnesota Twins - The Twins snapped a four-game losing skid against the Milwaukee Brewers Sunday but have just two wins in their last seven outings. Minnesota hits the road for a three-game set in Pittsburgh starting Tuesday.
WNBA: Los Angeles Sparks - The Sparks have lost back-to-back road tilts heading into Monday’s home game with the Washington Mystics. Los Angeles, which opened the year 7-1 SU, is 6-4 ATS including a 2-2 ATS mark as hosts.
61 – Since 1999, pitchers coming off perfect games/no-hitters have played over the total in their following start 61 percent of the time (19-11-1 over/under). San Francisco starter Matt Cain faces the Angels after pitching the 22nd perfect game in MLB history Wednesday.
Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked
Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies – Gonzalez was scratched from Sunday’s lineup due to a nagging hamstring injury. He’s listed as day-to-day. Gonzalez leads the Rockies in just about every offensive category, including average (.335) and home runs (17). Colorado travels to Philadelphia for a three-game set starting Tuesday.
Game of the day
Croatia (+700) vs. Spain (-138 - Draw +188)
"I have in mind some players for Ireland's future, but you won't see them until August. If I were to change five or six men now for the match with Italy, I would draw suspicion. I've got to use the squad that brought Ireland back to the Euros after 24 years. They deserve to play." -- Former Italian head coach and current Ireland manager Giovanni Trapattoni, dispelling rumors that he would play some bench players against Italy Monday.
Notes and Tips
-- The Cincinnati Reds are just getting over a stomach virus that made its way through the clubhouse this week. More than half a dozen players were ill, including starter Mike Leake which forced the Reds to shuffle the rotation. Cincinnati travels to Cleveland for a three-game state rivalry starting Tuesdsay.
-- There are rumors that Spain and Croatia have a pact to finish their Group C finale in a 2-2 draw in order to eliminate Italy from the tournament. Both sides have denied any such arrangement. The Azzurri are fighting for a spot in the knockout phase in the late game Monday.
-- Texas Rangers slugger Josh Hamilton has been released from hospital and is expected to return to the lineup Monday after being admitted with an intestinal virus Friday. “Hopefully he’ll be ready to go when we get to San Diego,” Rangers manager Ron Washington told reporters.
AL teams were 21-7 Saturday/Sunday, they're 96-72 against NL teams in interleague play this season, with one week to go.
Remember there are DHs in games in American League parks, no DHs in National League parks. It doesn't seem to affect totals either way.
-- Minor is 1-0, 1.42 in his last couple starts. Sabathia is 3-1, 4.50 in his last four starts.
-- Dickey is 5-0, 0.45 in his last five starts.
-- Wolf is 0-0, 1.32 in his last couple starts.
-- Miley is 4-2, 2.53 in his last six starts.
-- Harrison is 5-0, 1.42 in his last five starts. Marquis is 1-1, 2.92 in two starts for the Padres.
-- Cain is 7-0, 2.54 in his last seven starts; he tossed a perfect game in his last start.
-- Latos has a 6.75 RA in his last four starts; despite that, Cincinnati still won his last five outings, scoring 34 runs. Lowe is 1-4, 7.27 in his last five starts.
-- Arrieta is 1-4, 8.77 in his last five starts.
-- Toronto lost last six Alvarez starts (0-4, 6.21).
-- Happ is 0-4, 7.59 in his last four starts. JSanchez was 0-2, 7.52 in his last five starts, before going on the DL.
-- Garza is 0-4, 7.62 in his last five starts.
-- Noesi is 0-3, 5.26 in his last five starts.
-- Williams is 2-3, 5.23 in his last five starts.
-- Cincinnati won its last six games, scoring 38 runs.
-- Bronx won its last nine games, scoring 46 runs.
-- Orioles won nine of their last twelve games.
-- Royals won five of their last six games.
-- Brewers won four of their last five home games. Toronto won its last three games, allowing seven runs.
-- Rangers won six of their last seven games.
-- Angels won seven of their last nine games.
-- Cleveland lost six of its last eight games.
-- Braves lost six of their last seven games.
-- Mets lost their last three games, scoring five runs.
-- Astros lost 15 of their last 20 games.
-- Cubs lost 12 of their last 16 games. White Sox lost four of five.
-- Arizona lost its last two games, both by 2-0 scores. Mariners lost six of their last eight games.
-- Padres lost four of their last five home games.
-- Giants lost three of their last four games.
-- Seven of last nine Cleveland home games went over total.
-- Under is 7-3 in last ten Bronx home games.
-- Four of last five Baltimore games stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last ten Houston games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Milwaukee games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of Cubs' last twelve games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Seattle road games went over the total.
-- Nine of last twelve San Diego games went over the total.
-- Angels' last six games stayed under the total.
The Royals look to take advantage of a Houston team that is 1-5 in J.A. Happ's last 6 starts as a home favorite. Kansas City is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Royals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+100). Here are all of today's picks.
MONDAY, JUNE 18
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST
Game 901-902: Cincinnati at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Latos) 15.006; Cleveland (Lowe) 15.262
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-110); Under
Game 903-904: Atlanta at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Minor) 16.390; NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.024
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-200); 9
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+170); Over
Game 905-906: Baltimore at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Arrieta) 15.642; NY Mets (Dickey) 16.768
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-175); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-175); Over
Game 907-908: Kansas City at Houston (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Sanchez) 14.773; Houston (Happ) 13.370
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+100); Under
Game 909-910: Toronto at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Alvarez) 16.324; Milwaukee (Wolf) 14.481
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-110); Under
Game 911-912: Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Garza) 14.150; White Sox (Stewart) 15.294
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-125); Over
Game 913-914: Seattle at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Noesi) 14.174; Arizona (Miley) 16.426
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-165); Under
Game 915-916: Texas at San Diego (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Harrison) 16.155; San Diego (Marquis) 14.927
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-175); 7
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-175); Over
Game 917-918: San Francisco at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 15.801; LA Angels (Williams) 15.378
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-115); Under