steve_janus Posts:310 Followers:5
On 06/08/2012 12:41 PM in Cappers

MLB Free Pick: Braves -1.5 (+130)

Toronto vs. Atlanta, 06/08/2012 19:35
Point Spread: -1½/+130 Atlanta

MLB Free Pick: Braves -1.5 (+130)

Congrats to those that backed my free pick on the Miami Heat -1.5 last night! Currently 4-1 over my last five free picks, and ready to add to the total with a rare run-line winner on Friday.

First things first, if you are comfortable laying the big juice(-165 to -175), go right ahead. If you want to avoid the possibility of a huge loss, I strongly recommend the run-line.

In order to cover a run-line, you like to look for a hot offense and a lopsided pitching matchup. The Braves are 6-1 in their last seven games overall. In those six wins, they are averaging 6.5 runs/game.

Hard to see that offense slowing down at home against Toronto's Kyle Drabek, who is 1-4 with a 6.98 ERA and 1.989 WHIP in five road starts.

The Braves will counter with youngster Brandon Beachy, who is 5-4 with a 1.87 ERA and .954 WHIP in 11 starts. As good as those numbers are, Beachy is 2-1 with a 0.96 ERA and 0.786 WHIP at home.

It's also worth noting that Beachy started against the Blue Jays at home last year. He allowed just one run over six innings of a 5-1 Braves win. BET ATLANTA!

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